Bitcoin Forum

Purchased avalon #1 using btc ,means used about 100 btc each .
An avalon  get 4.2 btc / day.  That means ,if the difficult don't change, I need 20 day (or 25 days?) to get invest back.

So there is very big chance to meet ROI target.

But #2 and #3 are not so lucky. The crazy increase of btc price ,means crazy number of GPU come to the game, and the difficult increase is much higher than I calculate only how much new ASIC come before.

So, at the end of April,a single avalon will only get 2.4 btc back per day.
That means the 2nd batch will need a much more time to get money back.

In my origional calculation, I thought it will be 60 days.

But if the crazy continue, Maybe GPU will add another 20T in every month, and I will never get my invest back.

Today i see 73T of network hashrate. I expect it be 50T,cause i remember it was 30T in Feb. So , 20T is from GPU.

How many GPU income could make btc batch #3 buyers non-profitable?

I spent more on BTC for a avalon #1 on a earlier round than you;  at least you GOT your avalon!  According to DHL mine still has not even shipped yet :(

Update: 4/12/2013 avalon arrived

Your ROI is all wrong.  You are wanting to get BTC for BTC.  You said that right now you get 4.2BTC/day and it would take you 20 days to get that back.  Your looking to get back 80BTC that equates to at todays rate of $230/btc or $18,400 when you paid 80BTC at $16 you paid $1,280.

BTC is worth what it will buy and a 1 BTC today will buy a lot more than 1 BTC from 6 months ago.  So you can't use BTC for BTC as your ROI.  If the price of BTC stayed relatively the same then you could.  So you have to use something else to determine your ROI say USD which does not fluctuate as much.

If you not happy with that ROI I would be more than happy to take the unit off your hands :)

Can any explain to me why we will not see a strong correlation between difficulty and exchange price to USD/EU etc.?   

 My point is, I bought avalon using btc. Avalon team DID have an option to pay by USD.
If you paid USD, you calculate ROI by USD.

...and THAT'S where I stopped reading.

lol.  yes that is what made me cry too and think we need to send him a tip....

This.  OP, please post an address so that those of us who didn't bother with batch 1 avalons and missed out on batch 2 avalons and could only afford a group-buy of a batch 3 avalon can send you some spare change.

I will always say: Even today Avalon become a box of silicon and worth nothing. I will never regret for buying it. Investment always has risk.

it is not just an investment.  you are actually getting paid to do something that many of us would do for free and are willing to continue to do for breakeven on the power because it NEEDS to be done in order for this to work

At least you have a product.  You could have chose bASIC and lost 75% of your BTC when Tom finally refunded you at higher $/btc rates. Or you could have chose BFL who has no product to ship and is still unclear on what they are doing - just pretend BFL doesn't exist. It will be a miracle when/if they ever ship. And I can't imagine there being 50TH of GPU's. Who would buy more GPU's with ASIC coming online?

Even so, an ROI of less than a year would be better than most business models.

LOL! A symptom of the now generation.

His calculation is all  right. Stop thinking in USD or EUR, he invested BTC and he is getting back BTC. Same with those that invested BTC in ASICminer, they are getting paid weekly in BTC.

Those who invested BTC 110 in September to buy a Batch #1 Avalon could have had less risk by just have hording the BTC (no risk of no-delivery if Avalon failed like bASIC did, or end up with a late inferior product like BFL is trying to pull off)

The whole point of stimulating the BTC economy is to offer people the option of investing their BTC into something that pays them back in the long run (a few months) their BTC and in the mean time contribute to the growth of the network (by adding security or new features/products/sites that brings in more users)

What else could you do with BTC? Just hord it? Speculate and sell it on an exchange for FRN? You earn BTC by offering something of value and you spend those BTC on other things people offer.

Why we have to compare the investment by BTC?
Think about if you invest gold or silver, how you judge win or lose?
Compare with GPU's power consumption, I don't know to judge Avalon buyers win or lose?
Therefore, I think the topic is totally wrong. When I saw this "I need 20 day to get invest back.". I have a feeling which in Chinese is "得了便宜还卖乖！" I don't know how to translate to English.

I bought gold and silver with the intention of one day spending it as gold or silver coins for goods, not for the intention to trade them for FRN. But yes, you have a point there. Ideally I would like to invest some of my silver coins into something that pays me more silver coins in the end instead of hoarding them.


One Avalon (3 modules) is costing you 600 Watts thus 14.4 kWh / day. Say at EUR 0.22 / kWh, it's EUR 3 / day
Every day the Avalon (at current difficulty) is generating about BTC 4.

You need to sell each day BTC 0.02 to cover your costs. The rest pays of your investment until you break even

GPU systems consume far more Watt / GH/s



I think 20 days is optimistic 60 days is more realistic with increasing difficulty. Maybe 90 days for batch #3

Hey bro, for batch #1, sure there will be good return.
I'm thinking of  batch #3 case.

And also, I never regret any invest in Avalon. Just try to simulate the situation of GPU incoming.

 If I paid in USD but not in BTC, it will be a much better ROI result.


"没占谁的便宜啊，我都是真金白银花下去买的avalon啊亲。"  <-- I pay real BTC to buy Avalon, and I 'm curious about the real ROI. let's find out 2 months later

谁不是呢？我只是想说是投资总有风险，标题太夸张了！更何况对比GPU，Avalon还有功耗优势。挖矿的难度提升对GPU和ASIC是等同的。
<-- Who of the Avalon investors is not the same situation as you? I just want to say you have to take risk for any investment, the topic is too tough! After all, compare with GPU, Avalon is better on power consumption. The difficulty increase of mining is same to GPU and ASIC miner.

同学啊我说的不是显卡和Asic的比较。我说的是，花BTC，赚BTC的效率。显卡不是这样的。我当然不是害怕风险，害怕风险咱就都不玩了对吧？ 我现实工作比这个风险还要大很多呢。

translations:

You didn't get the point.

If you buy GPU, you buy in USD or RMB , not in BTC.

So, in title I ask "let btc avalon buyers losing the game" not "USD or RMB buyers".

Sure ASIC is very effective comparing to GPU. But BTC exchange rate is jumping as a rocket.

Just relax and imagine : if the difficult double every 2 weeks, so, one may never get back the btc he spend upon batch #3 Avalon.

I know your meaning. But as there is BTC exchange website serveral years ago, how could you say GPU player is not the same situation? For example, I bought a computer worth about 1000 USD last year by sold out some of my BTC. Same as avalon buyer, also for me, I bought some BTC use RMB when I order Avalon.
So, nothing is definitely right or wrong, win or lose. As Chinese said, 塞翁失马，焉知非福.  :P

How lucky you are !

#恩算了还是不庸人自扰了不然就该自挂东南枝去了.  <-- this is a common joke and I should look forward and stop worrying.

这个问题得看如何理解. 我付款比你早但至今没收到那18台机器, 与我相比, 你是不是受到格外优惠的待遇 ?  所以, 当知足, 并感恩.

哈哈，有人跟我一样想法啊！你没有联系南瓜问问到底怎么回事么？

随我团购的人因焦虑收不全货而在qq群中骂了张博士, 从那以后我再也没收到机器. 我是最大的受害者. 比窦娥还冤.

I got my first ROI on GPUs in 7 months... Why would Avalons do it faster, why would any investement be faster then that? Only first batch should be able to do that...

张博士被骂的多了，应该不至于是这个原因吧。他们很有契约精神的。

那我就不知道是啥原因了.

电话不接. 邮件不回. 只有阳光男孩xiangfu还算同情我, 但他回的邮件也很令我心寒, 他说他不知道啥时给我发货. 也就是说, 没人知道啥时给我发货.


> 他们很有契约精神的。

啥是契约精神? 谁来帮我扫扫盲?


说实在的, 落到这种境遇, 我的心情很郁闷. 打算择日裸奔.

It doesnt make sense to take the exchange price into account. Simply because the following.
You invest 100BTC into an avalon. A BTC is worth $10 at that time. That makes the machine $1000. You earn 5BTC with that machine while the exchange price is $200. And you already have your investment back. But that isnt correct. Because you invested BTC. If you would have kept the BTC and didnt buy the Asic then you would now have $20000. So a miner has always to beat the buyingprice you paid in BTC. Otherwise you lose. Or you would have been better to keep your bitcoins and see the exchange price and the worth rise.

The same applies to Asicminer shares. If you got your initial investment IN BTC back youre fine. Otherwise you would have been better to keep the BTC.

Everything that is beyond the buyingprice is additional and can be calculated in whatever you like. But an investment in BTC has to come back in BTC.

This x1000.  When investing in btc, measure your returns in btc.

And if you're "a believer" then the more transactions you do in bitcoin (such as buying a batch 3 Avalon), the better it is for Bitcoin.  And if you're a believer in Bitcoin, then you're in for the long haul anyway.

And if you're only here for a quick buck, then I hope you put in your life savings at $200 and sold in a panic at $100.

不知哪位真神感化了南瓜博士的心, 今天早晨顺丰快递竟然送来5台avalon.

我想,这定是万能的主耶和华或他的忠实使徒所为.

赞美！

这一情况让我对南瓜按时发送第二批充满信心啊！赞美一下吧！哈哈！ ;D

thank you for the sanity SebastianJu.  ROI can only be measured in BTC if BTC was spent.

this analogy:

should be more like this:
I sell 100 gold bars to build a gold mining operation.
My mining operation uncovers 80 gold bars.
Did I make my ROI?  

No I did not.

The price of gold bars increasing or decreasing does not change that.  *edit* Nor does it matter what price I bought those original gold bars for.  You were right the first time SolarSilver :)  Even Yifu from Avalon measured ROI in BTC, not the dollar/euro value, etc.

"The price of each unit is the current mining difficulty which at the time of writing, just got readjusted to about 6,695,826. We take that number and multiply it by two ( predicting the network speed will double. ) and calculate the return in a thirty day window, which is about 75 bitcoins."
http://launch.avalon-asics.com/

In all of this, (and the jealous whining, lol) the OP's original question seems to have been lost. How many GPU miners it would take to make life difficult for batch 3 recipients is an interesting one but beyond my skill to figure out, sadly.  Hopefully too many for it to be any concern :)

It will be a long discussion on how you define win or lose. I was aiming to the word "losing" in the topic.

This is what I'm trying to explain post after post in different threads. Is incredible how people keep saying "hey, you will get your ROI faster because BTC/USD is skyrocketing", and then they do their math in USD... When speaking about an Avalon #3 which has been bought with BTC.

Guys: you spend BTC, your ROI is in BTC. Otherwise, as Sebastian says, you would just have been better HOLDING those BTC.

Pure logic.

ftfy.

It doesn't matter what unit of denomination you keep your books in. The real judge of value is "what can I buy with it" -

at the time you bought your avalon with btc... you could have instead bought 1000 USD or 242 gallon of petrol. This is a valuation of what you spent to purchase the goods. It is incidental that what you chose to buy has the function of generating bitcoins for you. This is called income.

The key is use the same method of valuation for your income as you have for your expenditure.

So what if bitcoins increase in value and have a higher price on your exchange... as long as you can spend some of those bitcoins and buy you 1000 usd or 242 gallons of petrol... as long as you do spend the income.... you've made 100% ROI on your investment.

You're confusing speculation and capital gains with income and expenditure.

That would be right if you bought your Avalon with USD. But if you already had the BTC you invested into the Avalon in your wallet then you have to beat the higher value the BTC gained through the rising worth of the BTC. If you cant beat that value then you have invested 100BTC that were worth $1000 at that time. When the price of a BTC is $200 then you still have to mine 100BTC because if you wouldnt have bought the avalon you still would have 100BTC that now would be worth $20000.

In case the price for a BTC was at the start $10 and at the end $200:

Wallet: 100BTC (=$1000) -> Avalon Worth 100BTC (=$1000) -> Mining Revenue of 100BTC (=$20000)

or

Wallet: 100BTC (=$1000) -> nothing done -> In Wallet 100BTC (=$20000)

So if you only mined the initial $1000 back you would have only $1000 at the end, not $20000:

Wallet: 100BTC (=$1000) -> Avalon Worth 100BTC (=$1000) -> Mining Revenue of 5BTC (=$1000)

Of course if you didnt have BTC from the start and only changed USD into BTC to buy the avalon then it would be this way:

$1000 -> Wallet: 100BTC (=$1000) -> Avalon Worth 100BTC (=$1000) -> Mining Revenue of 5BTC (=$1000)

You would have your initial investment back. But still... if you skipped the investmentpart and kept the BTC you would be richer then.

Buying an Avalon, with btc or fiat, will always return more btc than the amount spent (unless it breaks).

The only thing in question is how long it will take and how much the fiat cost of carry for the electricity, connectivity, and storage it will be.