Bitcoin Forum

Guys,

Everything is by the book....

Here's the book

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/42701585/TemplateSuckersRally.jpg

And here's where we are

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/42701585/BitCoinSuckersRally.jpg

It could stop here or at 150, 160, 185, 220...

But then it shall drop and shall become under-valued for a while - let's say 10$ ??

GotBitCoins

The book says $10? Burn the fucking book dude. There is no book. Forget the charts. No one has a clue where this is going. You can predict 15k coin dumps? Rich people blowing 500k on coins?

Enjoy the ride, stop trying to figure it out, it's not working.

You're cherry-picking two or three weeks of chart to compare to an entire life-cycle?

 ???

I would bet every mBTC I have that Bitcoin never reaches $10. But since you can't prove that something will never happen, I will just say it.

Bitcoin will never be $10 again.

I'm so tired of seeing that chart.

$10? We're probably due for a correction after this rise but it won't be hitting anywhere near that.

Isn't that standard way of doing it on these forums?

I would say it's on high side from begining of the year...

Cool story bro.
But you didn't realise one thing. Bitcoin is just getting to the next level - mainstream. Huge bubble is comming soon. This is just a beginning of the story.

Thanks for your many, many, well-considered, erudite and illuminating posts on this forum.

Thanks also for that chart, it's been at least 3 days since I've last seen it. I live in fear of forgetting every bump and valley of that chart. With your help that need never happen.

why didn't you label your graph like this?

https://i.imgur.com/nOZQN3J.jpg

I would say zoom out a little bit, think about months/years not days, and you will see that we could very well still be at A. This is still very early adopter stage, as we are talking about a global techology with possibly huge adoption potential.

Just compare this with apple and the iOS tsunami for example. Are we at the stage where everyone and their mother has BTC, everyone talks about it to death, all hedge funds invest in it and guarantee unlimited growth (we're past this for AAPL and price has now crashed)? Or are we still at a stage where people discover this, journalists still scrambling to understand it, most of your friends don't know about it, and very few mothers own BTC? If you think about all the money in circulation globally, and a 'market share' for BTC, I am guessing we are well under 1%, probably a few decimals from that? Certainly a lot less that when apple market share when stock was trading at $15.

Of course BTC is a game changer, the first global currency, so hard to compare with a generic chart which probably applied to pets.com and other high branding-low innovation startups.

Of course this is really speculation land, no one can predict world events that could really alter the price, or whether big money (hedge funds etc) will decide to get on board or fight this to the ground.

Because E must be a VERY under-valued price!! When Bitcoin reached 47$ people were shocked how high it went and how huge the bubble is - don't you forget that!!!!! 50$ is still a huge bubble with lots of cheering crowds! those crowds should be evaporated before you can say that the low is in!! If before the bubble started the price was say 10$ - then the fear and anxiety of all the cheering crowds right now is going to take the price lower than 10$  - that's a REAL E !!

Who are these "people" you speak of? I think $50 is very very undervalued price for 1 BTC.

Not with today's fundamentals.

You can still bet. When it hits $10, you lost :)

This time it's different  ;D

lol, another stupid thread for me to laugh at.

Those stories won't be told in Vladimir's club I guess.

yea I would say that we indeed WERE in the stage were everybody were talking about it! It was in Bloomberg as well as the local news on a daily basis! All sorts of meetups, daily bitcoin shows, ATMs, exchanges and such. Just few hours before it crashed my boss and his boss came to me to ask if it's really true that I am a millionarie, etc - On my way down the elevator I thought about the 1930 crash and how Joseph Patrick "Joe" Kennedy got his tip to sell when the shoe shine boy started tipping me which stock should be bought. But of course I was deluded too to believe that it shall continue to 500$ before the first blow.

Also - unfortunately this bubble was too high, too fast - way more than the silver price action in 1980 - so indeed... really - maybe - just because of this - this technology is gonna be burned. I am quoting here Satoshi Nakamoto when he was asked by Wikileaks if they can adopt Bitcoin :

"The project needs to grow gradually so the software can be strengthened along the
way. I make this appeal to Wikileaks not to try to use Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a small beta
community in its infancy. You would not stand to get more than pocket change, and the
heat you would bring would likely destroy us at this stage."

I think things went out of hand, it became parabolic!! maybe without it - it could have lasted for years to come! Greed destoyed it even before it was adopted.

The cheering crowds in this forum are cheering because the price is going up again - but let me tell you bubbles are an evil thing - this suckers rally is gonna continue as long as it can suck suckers in - until the point where I, myself will not be so sure that the price is going down to the teens, and then it shall be all over. In a bull market it takes weeks to months for the bubble to find the low - that's in bull markets - but this one here - I am not sure at all if the bull shall resume - not at all!!

GotBitCoins.

In other words "This time is different"... I lived long enough to hear this crap over and over again, just before and after the top!

here - 11/March/2013

Here are some of the people that were shocked at how high and how fast the price went to 50

"Jesus are we going to hit 50 today?"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149245.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149245.0)


"BitCoin Party"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149217.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149217.0)


"Max Keiser/Stacy Herbert Tweeting like crazy about bitcoins"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149805.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149805.0)


"You’re all getting Greedy"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149873.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149873.0)


oh well you know what – just go to 11/March in  this forum... here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.1440 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.1440)


GotBitCoins

And this is how a 'hero' member express himself... haha - too funny!

LOL   ::)

Maybe not polite, but the gist of it is more likely correct than your assessment. I think you have the time frame all wrong in reading that chart. The chart may be relevant to bitcoin (but we have no idea), however if applicable, we are just beginning institutional interest, let alone investment. I would guess (and I'm betting) that the big run-up is just beginning. But sell your coins now, if you don't want to be on the crazy ride that the next couple of years are going to be...

best of luck..

EDIT: of course I could be wrong.. ;D

Hmm, what are some good responses to this OP?

1) Ooh, he has a chart... cute!

2) Don't I see that chart posted once every 3 days?

3) The only thing OP proved is that via the zoom/pan function, you can make ANY chart look like ANY other chart. The sad thing is OP, doesn't realize this and actually thought he was making a coherent, well-supported point.

4) Why didn't you choose the cell phone adoption chart, color TV adoption chart, fiat adoption chart, etc? Zoom in on the early segment on one of those graphs and you could easily find a segment that looks exactly the same. Life is just an ever-changing series of microcosms and macrocosms.

Oh I did that already!! yea I used to be in that 'beyond 1000 BTC club" when I bought at sub 20$ and sold at ~170$ just to buy again when you were doing in your pants at 60$ and selling again at 99$.

I like that..

the all time chart says that same.

Oooh charts!!! Let me post one too!!!

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/94/Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg

So to here is a more detailed chart that could tend to support OP premise, and perhaps give better language to discuss the tech innovation cycle. According to this chart, you might say we are seeing "Supplier Consolidation and failures" (exchanges collapsing etc, )but feels like a stretch. The correlation with BTC price is anybody's guess.

However we could also be at "Startup companies, first round" which is where I think we are at in terms of VC involvement at this point..
http://blog.compete.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/gartner1.png

You forgot "Complain about how other people use log scales to more accurately represent % changes in price over time"

One more thing, esp. in response to the most recent graph posted... we have no idea what the projected time frame for future events are. The "trough of disillusionment/slope of enlightenment/plateau of productivity" could take years, weeks, months, it seems that events happen faster as t increases (look at major inventions if you want a great illustration of that) so in the same way that extrapolating price data is risky, extrapolating from the x axis is just as difficult.
Notice how the automobile and the telephone had a MUCH longer adoption curve than the cell phone and Facebook. New technology adopts faster and faster.

Yes. that is an interesting take, and might correlate well.

But I do think you could make the argument that the price discovery process in the market is almost completely about expectations, and both price and expectation rise and fall with the "markets" view of the future.

Of course bitcoin is a strange and wonderful new beast and I certainly have little faith in my own abilities to predict the path to large scale adoption (assuming we get there).... and that is what makes this ride so much fn fun!!

Yup. Right you are...

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8iEr1yB8kAg/UR_uP_GzFTI/AAAAAAAAAws/J-fl_ypqsTc/s1600/Historical+adoption+curves.gif

The psychology of those replying on this thread tell me that the bear is still in its infancy

You , I like you.

The Internet was invented in the 1980 if you count the issue of RFC 760 as the birthday of the Net. And 5 years later, 1985, there was already a 25% penetration in the US?

The "crash" looks like a minor speed bump  when you zoom out a bit:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl)

True. But it could be also a signal for more prolonged downtrend.

My questions is: what is the average cost to produce a coin now? add a 10%, hell, add 20% more and you get a absolely great price for BTC

Definitely! Reading the responses to my thread - I am now even more sure that Bitcoin shall be traded at much much lower prices...

In 2011 everyone expected Bitcoin to die. Only complete morons will assume that today. Everyone knows that another default like Cyprus is just a matter of time. Considering the youth unemployment in Greece and Spain, a civil war there is imminent, with everything that entails (forced war bonds, outright confiscation....)

Argentinians get to know the advantages of Bitcoin while the government goes full scale totalitarian these days. If you want to sell Mendoza wines or beef, there are 2 possibilities: Get payment through the banking system and lose 60% at the official exchange to Pesos, or get paid in Bitcoin.

And with all these possibilities of massive upturn, you expect $10?

The power production cost of Bitcoin used to be a determining factor of price where most people interested in Bitcoin were miners.

Since the start of the run up to the halving, from around August last year, the expectation of future scarcity has been the driving factor.

This years media attention and promise of global commercialization is a factor several times greater than other previous factors combined.

There is currently no real sensible way of determining market value, the only businesses publishing consumer figures are exchanges and that type of customer base says little about real life adaptation.

There is a lot of promise of interest of big business. on the other hand, Legal framework and accounting practices inside Bitcoin are not there yet, so if governments or established institutions take a critical position towards Bitcoin in general. A temporary or permanent collapse may be the result.

International banking can overnight choose to no longer deal with anything Bitcoin related. The banks embracing Bitcoin now can change their attitude just as fast if they are put under pressure.

So it makes no sense to talk about a future reasonable price.

 

The it would be more than triple digits. But by then, hope that the system is good and we can support that masses getting in. 3 major exchanges with one being FuckGox?

And what about those that buy coins ad let's say 2421 dollars to pay their employees and next day coins are 2634? profit right? what about the stupid employess that will hold a few days more? with these price swings I don't want to be paid in bitcoins. What goes but cand go down.

no guys. you are all wrong.
this member is an expert. he joined one month ago and knows everything that he is talking.
make him feel good that he is so smart.

Yea! you are right - it's just a little whinney nothing of a bump - price should continue on - according to my extrapolation we are talking about 10,000$ per BTC in October...

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/42701585/to%20infinity%20and%20beyond.jpg

Actually - more likely... I mean more likely than your little bump story that we shall face the same crash just like in 2011 - so it will take us to sub 10$ in 8 months... :)

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/42701585/same%20decline.jpg

I am not saying that this will be the scenario - I am just saying that... it's more likely than your little bump thesis.

This forum is going to be real quiet by then, especially the speculation sub-section....

GotBitCoins.

If we have a good consumer base, I'm roughly saying 1 in 5 people that have internet, and by consumer base add everyone that knows about bitcoin and could buy it, we eventually need no more banks.

We could use OTC with fellows in the same city or even barter. When people will barter with bitcoins, that will be an amazing time...

The vola would stop if people would stop panic buying or selling. ATM the price is at 116. If you want to sell, why not selling at 120? Or buying at 110? The price went through both 110 and 120 dozens of time in the last few weeks. It will do so again. And again, and again.

If 5% here learn that adding liquidity to the market saves them money while taking liquidity costs them, the price will stabilize. Listen: I will continue to take your money if you continue to take liquidity! Stop inducing vola. Learn patience.

Why am I saying this? Because I want the Bitcoin price at 10,000. Which is where we will go if you stop fooling around. I don't want to make a few bugs from the vola you induce.


PS:
If people would start spending Bitcoin and earning Bitcoin, the price would stabilize. You'd be surprised about the bargains you get with Bitcoin.

How old are you sweetie? who cares about the date of joining the forum? You need to live long enough and watch the price of stocks and commodities and go through several bubbles to be able to identify a bubble. It's amazing how the price is following the same pattern - how on the first day after the crash - people are saying that the crash is over and the price indeed went up to 200$... and then it's amazing how the price goes lower than all expectations just to rise again and pull everybody in again into this sucker's rally. It happend so many times in the past - just google 'financial bubble' and you won't believe it - there's almost always that bump that takes the price real high - it sometimes almost goes beyond the top of the bubble value - it lurs you in - you are just starting to believe that wow - it's going up forever!...

GotBitCoins.

Everybody want's it at 10,000 but no hope for 12 months.

We don't know the true price of BitCoin right? But even at 20$ it was in a bubble right? I remember I first heard about bitCoin when it was 14$ and in the 10 days that it took me to wire my funds to MtGox it went up to almost 20$. So that's a whopping rise of 50% already!! and I mean it was up already thousands of % by that time for the true early adopters - yes? So suppose that 10$ is a pre bubble price and now there's a HUGE scare all around the world and the price of BitCoin goes up to wholly cow - 20$ !!!! WOWWwww!!! so high!!! it's like you say that Gold which is trading at 1400$ goes to 2800$ because of this cyprus scare... - and it doesn't. 200$ is 10X that - it's absolutely outrageously high price. Surely it will collapse, and I don't know yet if when it crashes I will use my gains in order to join the 5K BTC club because frankly after such a parabola and such a crash - it may never go up again.

GotBitCoins

well, if you claim to know a lot i would think that something more along the lines of "MTGOX CRASHED DDOS LAGGED"-
fundamentals of bitcoins didn't change. mtgox and bitcoins are supposed to be different things. i don't think you understand that.
do tell me how a company goes from $0 to billions in a matter of a few years. google went from nothing to billions. no, that makes no sense! must be a bubble. google is worth $1. why don't you go back to trading stocks and commodities that you are so familiar with. why don't you also use the tulip mania graph that every "expert" likes to bring up. because tulips 300 years ago and digital currency are the same exact thing.

Yeah, I can't see $10/mBTC coming within a year, unless it's a pump/dump by Big Finance. I think I might sell in that bubble situation (a real bubble, that is, not this $50/$115/$266 noise). ;D

If bitcoin survives and is successful in a few years' time, effectively answering the questions about its scalability, we may well see something like $10+/mBTC, though.

+1  :D

Exactly my point, I can lose, but never win. So I won't make that bet.

What is a true price? The government approved price? The inner value? What's the inner value of gold - it's just protons, neutrons and electrons, just like pish. It even shares the color.


The gold price is manipulated like hell.


Remember, Bitcoin was dead, dead, dead after the crash in June 2011 - lost like 95%.

Sure, if the morons drive the price up 10% a day like they did, take their money. I did, too. Bought everything back at 64 and 54. And I am in the 5K club. Easily. So the morons handed me almost a Million $ - Falkvinge got probably way more than I got. Remember, it is a zero-sum game. That's why I am saying: Stop panic buying, stop panic selling. Add liquidity, don't take liquidity. You profit from the morons, you stabilize the price.

The graph like pattern can be considered a fractal. And so on any given day or moment, we can find the exact same pattern. The last 12 hours looks like this!

So, as the time horizon extends, and the graph gets larger, we shall see the same pattern on an extended scale. say 2660 to 550 stabilizing at 1150, only to move to 22600, etc.

But the patter remains the same, just the scale differs.

my two satoshis.

+1  ^this

It's just that I am not so sure that if and when the price shall drop to say 20$ - if then I will be able to commit to the 5K club - because this is serious money still, and the scenario according to which this whole thing goes down to 10$, down to 5$, 0.5$, zip - is possible.

I keep on thinking about what Satoshi was trying to avoid - he tried to avoid BitCoin to get publicity, he wanted the software to strengthen, he was afraid of the burning match effect and thus when wikileaks asked to adopt BitCoin - he tried to avoid that saying

"The project needs to grow gradually so the software can be strengthened along the
way. I make this appeal to Wikileaks not to try to use Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a small beta
community in its infancy. You would not stand to get more than pocket change, and the
heat you would bring would likely destroy us at this stage."

GotBitCoins

You could argue either way.  There's been a lot of press lately. 

However, for a real bitcoin ecosystem, large pieces are completely missing.  There isn't even a good prototype of a hardware wallet yet (or maybe there is but barely).  There is no decentralized exchange.  Bitcoin ATMs just starting to raise funds.  All that points to the bubble being ahead of us, not behind.

I see no reason why it can't be both.  There was a bubble just now, and eventually there will be a bigger one.

Here's a fundamental problem with the "classic bubble" chart: It depicts the entrance of fundamental investors as the second phase in the process, but did we ever really see that? I mean, you could define people who entered in the $2 to $32 range as "fundamental investors" based on the timeliness of their buy-in, but REAL fundamental investors have only started entering, based on reports of that Spanish hedge fund for example.

So if we are just entering the fundamental investor stage recently, that means we are looking at the wrong side of the chart, and the bubble peak will actually be over $5000 USD ;)

Bitcoin is fractal. You will see self-similar patterns with any given optics. There are bubbles within bubbles.

+1

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.
(Niels Bohr)

A ruling by Estonian tax authorities TODAY, so a hot new info:
- Bitcoins are not subject to VAT in Estonia

As you combine this with the little-known secret:
- Estonian corporate tax is 0%, the lowest in EU


You for the first time in history have the optimum jurisdiction for bitcoin trading, and soon the volatility will be gone, as more and more businesses flock in to stabilize the market. I am already there, and will start employing my "price stabilization war chest" of BTC2,000.

I can help you get started for EUR 2,000 fixed fee + EUR 500 per month including manager and bookkeeping. You get to trade legally to your heart's content, paying 0% in taxes. Full package, PM me.


Soon, brother, soon (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=174620.msg1886147#msg1886147) :)

Maybe...

Maybe in 2011 we saw prices soaring to 30$ and then diminishing to 3$

And in 2013 we saw prices soaring to 260$ and then diminishing to 26$

And in 2015 we shall see prices soaring to 2600$ and then diminishing to 260$...

But now at this junction when someone is holding serious money, say 500,000$ in his hands - isn't it better to wait for lower prices to join in? Much lower prices? Cause you know - if this fractal plan doesn't work... - this is serious money that could be lost...

So better be aware of the evil local sucker's rally - no?


GotBitCoins.

I really don't like the way you brag.

The patterns are not limited to the timeline. These patterns can be recursive as well.

Because E must be a VERY under-valued price!! When Bitcoin reached 47$ people were shocked how high it went and how huge the bubble is - don't you forget that!!!!! 50$ is still a huge bubble with lots of cheering crowds! those crowds should be evaporated before you can say that the low is in!! If before the bubble started the price was say 10$ - then the fear and anxiety of all the cheering crowds right now is going to take the price lower than 10$  - that's a REAL E !!

I'm pretty sure everyone and their brother and their grandmother will be dumping as much money as they can muster into BTC if it goes even a cent under $50. Sorry mate, you missed your low buy-in. Better luck after the next bubble pop.

wow, I had always thought the future was unknowable. I have learned from these forums that anyone who can type in all caps can precisely predict the future. Just ask one of them.

By all means, if you have money in BTC you can't afford to lose, take profits now as it could be a bull trap.

However, keep in mind that the "cheering crowds" at $50 have been and continue to be eclipsed by exponentially larger crowds that only cheer at $100, then only at $200, etc.

"People" and "cheering crowds" point to exponentially growing sets, each with a higher entry point. These are moving goalposts.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=W&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

no comment

Op is here to just stir FUD. What his true intentionsare we will never know

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=21&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

Am I doing it right?

THIS!!!

Yep, totally agree.

you will soon reach "Blow off phase"

Well I guess we have to ask the maker of this template if "valuation" is on a log scale.  ;)

The problem is on a log scale that graph spans over 8 magnitudes from the current point.
That would make one BTC worth approximately USD 20,000,000,000.

Now if somebody comes up with an explanation besides hyperinflation I am all ears. But that wouldn't be "valuation" then.


oh btw:
don't blink
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=O&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

Oh and media attention was the good wife episode.

Now this is interesting, could you possibly link material to read up on the actual ruling ?

Of course not. Welcome to Estonia, the Byzant of the North.  ::)

Don't have a clue about Estonia, just found on wikipedia

Estonia: Corporations/legal persons income tax.
Legal persons income tax rate is 21% in the year 2012. However, the system of corporate earnings taxation currently in force in Estonia is a unique system, which shifts the moment of corporate taxation from the moment of earning the profits to the moment of their distribution. In other words, earning profits in itself does not bring income tax liability, which arises only when earned profit is distributed to shareholders. In case profit distributed to shareholders originates from dividends received from subsidiary company or from permanent establishment corporation has in other country, then profit distribution is tax exempt. Estonia does not have withholding tax on dividends paid.

AFAIK lower corp. taxes in EU are

Bulgaria 10%
Cyprus 10% (will be 12.5 soon)
Ireland 12.5%

I like these thoughts.

A universal answer to such kind of chart is a quesion: Where are we now in the following chart?

http://www.heritage.org/federalbudget/charts/2012/increases-us-debt-limit-680.jpg

It is meaningless to discuss the chart without understanding underlying fundamentals

And how is that related to the valuation of bitcoin?

Just noticed that the bid size has reached an all time high of 20 million USD :o Seems lots of buyers are waiting for sell orders from peoples who have similar opinion as OP

http://blockchained.com/depth_mtgox.png

People should give Clinton more credit, in the middle of rapidly rising debt, his second term actually was in the black and didn't raise the deficit at all. Then Bush Jr. came along and blew it all to hell.

The question is, is it bad ? Now that they can borrow against 0% interest, it's not as bad as when you got 10% on short term bills.

your count is definitely wrong. In the book, A is way below C. In your interpretation, A is way above C.

Go to treasurydirect.gov and view the "Debt to the Penny" data series. Look at the column called "Total Public Debt Outstanding" and see what actually happened to the debt. You can even plot it in Excel if you want, it will help make what actually happened a lot more clear.

The question is can you find another chart that looks like you are sitting at C/D, but went on to rocket to new highs?

Answer:  Easily, I found one on my first try:
https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1243627200000&chddm=1079144&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:AAPL&ntsp=0&ei=zK9xUaDIHIielwPCcw (https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1243627200000&chddm=1079144&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:AAPL&ntsp=0&ei=zK9xUaDIHIielwPCcw)

So, looks like "return to the mean" currently?

I love charts

http://propublica.org/images/articles/picower-annual-chart-withdrawals.gif

no, no - you have to feel the despair first... go to this forum posts in Oct/Nov 2011, that sort of thing! Then after you can feel and hear the despair a new bull can emerge - OR NOT! But you don't have that kind of patience now don't ya? you want fast money! you wanna be rich - yes, so why don't you buy into this sucker's rally? Eventually - you will make money - OR NOT!


GotBitCoins

You don't "have" to feel anything. The price is set by international demand, not fucking forum sentiment.

Maybe we are at A. Maybe we are nowhere at all since BTC gyrates more than a coked up belly dancer at a bull rodeo anyway.

yes, you are showing a bull run that spans over several years and you are showing an interim top at ~200$ and then price becomes 100$. At that point in time you are not sure if the bull is going to continue - right? so you better invest when it's 100$ rather than when you hear the hurrah of 200$. Cause you don't know - at that point the bull may be over.

Here we go again.

1. Create new forum profile

2. Make tunnel vision price predictions

3. Be proven wrong

4. Go silent

5. Fail


Lol  ;D

Lol, smoothie ;D and how many times has this happened? Methinks our friend "GotBitCoinz" is going to have his ignore button glowing orange in a matter of weeks ;) that usually happens somewhere between steps 3 and 4.

To top it off, he's one of those "I know exactly what everyone else does with their coins, and why they invest in bitcoin" folks. Everyone's just trying to get rich quick, they're "hoarding" and not "spending," and price is a result of forum sentiment and not supply vs. demand ... in the land of the mysteriously vanishing troll profile...

how about a 3 month min before being able to post in the speculation board?

By that time all our crackpot theories will have fallen apart.  :D

Yep everything is by the book, capitulation now, maybe even panic, now we shall perhaps see a short lived rally and then down, down to the despair level...

GotBitCoins.

Where is the suckers rally this time, it's been like 3 days and we haven't bounced yet. :-[

Each rally has been stopped or beaten back by very large sell orders. You can see the eagerness of the buyers, but large bids near the current price get eaten too. One could expect a stronger rally following a further very sharp spike down, e.g. seller exhaustion.

I agree with your sucker's rally characterization. We may be too far along in the bubble collapse for a strong bounce off this plunge.

The three-day-bounce is about due one way or another. The resistance to the plunge is good though. Within three more days we should see the upswing come back when the sellers feel more secure.