And now - the sucker's rally

[GotBitCoins]

Not with today's fundamentals.

In other words "This time is different"... I lived long enough to hear this crap over and over again, just before and after the top!

[GotBitCoins]

Because E must be a VERY under-valued price!! When Bitcoin reached 47$ people were shocked how high it went and how huge the bubble is - don't you forget that!!!!! 50$ is still a huge bubble with lots of cheering crowds! those crowds should be evaporated before you can say that the low is in!! If before the bubble started the price was say 10$ - then the fear and anxiety of all the cheering crowds right now is going to take the price lower than 10$  - that's a REAL E !!

Who are these "people" you speak of? I think $50 is very very undervalued price for 1 BTC.

here - 11/March/2013

Here are some of the people that were shocked at how high and how fast the price went to 50

"Jesus are we going to hit 50 today?"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149245.0


"BitCoin Party"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149217.0


"Max Keiser/Stacy Herbert Tweeting like crazy about bitcoins"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149805.0


"You’re all getting Greedy"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149873.0


oh well you know what – just go to 11/March in  this forum... here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.1440


GotBitCoins

[GotBitCoins]

GotBitCoins, yep you are absolutely correct. Your curve fitting skills are admirable. Now I dare you dump whatever satoshis you hold and never buy any bitcoins again.

There is going to be lots of "ohh I had a whole bitcoin, but sold it too early" stories. Like "you kids could have been sorted with trust funds and everything. Too bad you daddy was a greedy and fearful idiot." Just you wait.

Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."

And this is how a 'hero' member express himself... haha - too funny!

[Crypt_Current]

GotBitCoins, yep you are absolutely correct. Your curve fitting skills are admirable. Now I dare you dump whatever satoshis you hold and never buy any bitcoins again.

There is going to be lots of "ohh I had a whole bitcoin, but sold it too early" stories. Like "you kids could have been sorted with trust funds and everything. Too bad you daddy was a greedy and fearful idiot." Just you wait.

Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."

And this is how a 'hero' member express himself... haha - too funny!

LOL   

[bitrider]

GotBitCoins, yep you are absolutely correct. Your curve fitting skills are admirable. Now I dare you dump whatever satoshis you hold and never buy any bitcoins again.

There is going to be lots of "ohh I had a whole bitcoin, but sold it too early" stories. Like "you kids could have been sorted with trust funds and everything. Too bad you daddy was a greedy and fearful idiot." Just you wait.

Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."

And this is how a 'hero' member express himself... haha - too funny!

Maybe not polite, but the gist of it is more likely correct than your assessment. I think you have the time frame all wrong in reading that chart. The chart may be relevant to bitcoin (but we have no idea), however if applicable, we are just beginning institutional interest, let alone investment. I would guess (and I'm betting) that the big run-up is just beginning. But sell your coins now, if you don't want to be on the crazy ride that the next couple of years are going to be...

best of luck..

EDIT: of course I could be wrong..

[BitcoinAshley]

Hmm, what are some good responses to this OP?

1) Ooh, he has a chart... cute!

2) Don't I see that chart posted once every 3 days?

3) The only thing OP proved is that via the zoom/pan function, you can make ANY chart look like ANY other chart. The sad thing is OP, doesn't realize this and actually thought he was making a coherent, well-supported point.

4) Why didn't you choose the cell phone adoption chart, color TV adoption chart, fiat adoption chart, etc? Zoom in on the early segment on one of those graphs and you could easily find a segment that looks exactly the same. Life is just an ever-changing series of microcosms and macrocosms.

[GotBitCoins]

GotBitCoins, yep you are absolutely correct. Your curve fitting skills are admirable. Now I dare you dump whatever satoshis you hold and never buy any bitcoins again.

Oh I did that already!! yea I used to be in that 'beyond 1000 BTC club" when I bought at sub 20$ and sold at ~170$ just to buy again when you were doing in your pants at 60$ and selling again at 99$.

There is going to be lots of "ohh I had a whole bitcoin, but sold it too early" stories. Like "you kids could have been sorted with trust funds and everything. Too bad you daddy was a greedy and fearful idiot." Just you wait.
[\quote]

Oh I still Got Bitcoins... I have ~4 BTCs or so in my Android wallet... just in case I need to buy something to drink....

Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."

Don't worry - I have the right balls to buy just when everyone are panicking - no worries here - otherwise you don't make much money eh?

[bitrider]

Hmm, what are some good responses to this OP?

Life is just an ever-changing series of microcosms and macrocosms.

I like that..

[kokjo]

You're cherry-picking two or three weeks of chart to compare to an entire life-cycle?

 

the all time chart says that same.

[bitrider]

Oh I did that already!! yea I used to be in that 'beyond 1000 BTC club" when I bought at sub 20$ and sold at ~170$ just to buy again when you were doing in your pants at 60$ and selling again at 99$.

[loanexpress]

Oooh charts!!! Let me post one too!!!

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/94/Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg

[ManBearPig]

[bitrider]

So to here is a more detailed chart that could tend to support OP premise, and perhaps give better language to discuss the tech innovation cycle. According to this chart, you might say we are seeing "Supplier Consolidation and failures" (exchanges collapsing etc, )but feels like a stretch. The correlation with BTC price is anybody's guess.

However we could also be at "Startup companies, first round" which is where I think we are at in terms of VC involvement at this point..

[BitcoinAshley]

You forgot "Complain about how other people use log scales to more accurately represent % changes in price over time"

One more thing, esp. in response to the most recent graph posted... we have no idea what the projected time frame for future events are. The "trough of disillusionment/slope of enlightenment/plateau of productivity" could take years, weeks, months, it seems that events happen faster as t increases (look at major inventions if you want a great illustration of that) so in the same way that extrapolating price data is risky, extrapolating from the x axis is just as difficult.
Notice how the automobile and the telephone had a MUCH longer adoption curve than the cell phone and Facebook. New technology adopts faster and faster.

[bitrider]

But note that on this chart on Y axis there is "expectations". If one wants to tie it to price action than perhaps the most reasonable would be to treat is as "volatility".

Yes. that is an interesting take, and might correlate well.

But I do think you could make the argument that the price discovery process in the market is almost completely about expectations, and both price and expectation rise and fall with the "markets" view of the future.

Of course bitcoin is a strange and wonderful new beast and I certainly have little faith in my own abilities to predict the path to large scale adoption (assuming we get there).... and that is what makes this ride so much fn fun!!

[bitrider]

Notice how the automobile and the telephone had a MUCH longer adoption curve than the cell phone and Facebook. New technology adopts faster and faster.

Yup. Right you are...

[BrightAnarchist]

The psychology of those replying on this thread tell me that the bear is still in its infancy

[phantastisch]

GotBitCoins, yep you are absolutely correct. Your curve fitting skills are admirable. Now I dare you dump whatever satoshis you hold and never buy any bitcoins again.

There is going to be lots of "ohh I had a whole bitcoin, but sold it too early" stories. Like "you kids could have been sorted with trust funds and everything. Too bad you daddy was a greedy and fearful idiot." Just you wait.

Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."

You , I like you.

[anu]

Notice how the automobile and the telephone had a MUCH longer adoption curve than the cell phone and Facebook. New technology adopts faster and faster.

Yup. Right you are...

The Internet was invented in the 1980 if you count the issue of RFC 760 as the birthday of the Net. And 5 years later, 1985, there was already a 25% penetration in the US?

[justusranvier]

The "crash" looks like a minor speed bump  when you zoom out a bit:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl