And now - the sucker's rally

[jmw74]

So to here is a more detailed chart that could tend to support OP premise, and perhaps give better language to discuss the tech innovation cycle. According to this chart, you might say we are seeing "Supplier Consolidation and failures" (exchanges collapsing etc, )but feels like a stretch. The correlation with BTC price is anybody's guess.

However we could also be at "Startup companies, first round" which is where I think we are at in terms of VC involvement at this point..

You could argue either way.  There's been a lot of press lately. 

However, for a real bitcoin ecosystem, large pieces are completely missing.  There isn't even a good prototype of a hardware wallet yet (or maybe there is but barely).  There is no decentralized exchange.  Bitcoin ATMs just starting to raise funds.  All that points to the bubble being ahead of us, not behind.

I see no reason why it can't be both.  There was a bubble just now, and eventually there will be a bigger one.

[checkers6676]

Here's a fundamental problem with the "classic bubble" chart: It depicts the entrance of fundamental investors as the second phase in the process, but did we ever really see that? I mean, you could define people who entered in the $2 to $32 range as "fundamental investors" based on the timeliness of their buy-in, but REAL fundamental investors have only started entering, based on reports of that Spanish hedge fund for example.

So if we are just entering the fundamental investor stage recently, that means we are looking at the wrong side of the chart, and the bubble peak will actually be over $5000 USD

[cbeast]

Bitcoin is fractal. You will see self-similar patterns with any given optics. There are bubbles within bubbles.

[anu]

So if we are just entering the fundamental investor stage recently, that means we are looking at the wrong side of the chart, and the bubble peak will actually be over $5000 USD

+1

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.
(Niels Bohr)

[rpietila]

The vola would stop if people would stop panic buying or selling. ATM the price is at 116. If you want to sell, why not selling at 120? Or buying at 110? The price went through both 110 and 120 dozens of time in the last few weeks. It will do so again. And again, and again.

If 5% here learn that adding liquidity to the market saves them money while taking liquidity costs them, the price will stabilize. Listen: I will continue to take your money if you continue to take liquidity! Stop inducing vola. Learn patience.

A ruling by Estonian tax authorities TODAY, so a hot new info:
- Bitcoins are not subject to VAT in Estonia

As you combine this with the little-known secret:
- Estonian corporate tax is 0%, the lowest in EU


You for the first time in history have the optimum jurisdiction for bitcoin trading, and soon the volatility will be gone, as more and more businesses flock in to stabilize the market. I am already there, and will start employing my "price stabilization war chest" of BTC2,000.

I can help you get started for EUR 2,000 fixed fee + EUR 500 per month including manager and bookkeeping. You get to trade legally to your heart's content, paying 0% in taxes. Full package, PM me.

If people would start spending Bitcoin and earning Bitcoin, the price would stabilize. You'd be surprised about the bargains you get with Bitcoin.

Soon, brother, soon

[GotBitCoins]

The graph like pattern can be considered a fractal. And so on any given day or moment, we can find the exact same pattern. The last 12 hours looks like this!

So, as the time horizon extends, and the graph gets larger, we shall see the same pattern on an extended scale. say 2660 to 550 stabilizing at 1150, only to move to 22600, etc.

But the patter remains the same, just the scale differs.

my two satoshis.

Maybe...

Maybe in 2011 we saw prices soaring to 30$ and then diminishing to 3$

And in 2013 we saw prices soaring to 260$ and then diminishing to 26$

And in 2015 we shall see prices soaring to 2600$ and then diminishing to 260$...

But now at this junction when someone is holding serious money, say 500,000$ in his hands - isn't it better to wait for lower prices to join in? Much lower prices? Cause you know - if this fractal plan doesn't work... - this is serious money that could be lost...

So better be aware of the evil local sucker's rally - no?


GotBitCoins.

[wobber]

I am already there, and will start employing my "price stabilization war chest" of BTC2,000.

I can help you get started for EUR 2,000 fixed fee + EUR 500 per month including manager and bookkeeping. You get to trade legally to your heart's content, paying 0% in taxes. Full package, PM me.

I really don't like the way you brag.

[cbeast]

The graph like pattern can be considered a fractal. And so on any given day or moment, we can find the exact same pattern. The last 12 hours looks like this!

So, as the time horizon extends, and the graph gets larger, we shall see the same pattern on an extended scale. say 2660 to 550 stabilizing at 1150, only to move to 22600, etc.

But the patter remains the same, just the scale differs.

my two satoshis.

The patterns are not limited to the timeline. These patterns can be recursive as well.

[GotBitCoins]

why didn't you label your graph like this?

https://i.imgur.com/nOZQN3J.jpg

+1  ^this

Because E must be a VERY under-valued price!! When Bitcoin reached 47$ people were shocked how high it went and how huge the bubble is - don't you forget that!!!!! 50$ is still a huge bubble with lots of cheering crowds! those crowds should be evaporated before you can say that the low is in!! If before the bubble started the price was say 10$ - then the fear and anxiety of all the cheering crowds right now is going to take the price lower than 10$  - that's a REAL E !!

[checkers6676]

I'm pretty sure everyone and their brother and their grandmother will be dumping as much money as they can muster into BTC if it goes even a cent under $50. Sorry mate, you missed your low buy-in. Better luck after the next bubble pop.

[RodeoX]

wow, I had always thought the future was unknowable. I have learned from these forums that anyone who can type in all caps can precisely predict the future. Just ask one of them.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

By all means, if you have money in BTC you can't afford to lose, take profits now as it could be a bull trap.

However, keep in mind that the "cheering crowds" at $50 have been and continue to be eclipsed by exponentially larger crowds that only cheer at $100, then only at $200, etc.

"People" and "cheering crowds" point to exponentially growing sets, each with a higher entry point. These are moving goalposts.

[ElectricMucus]

no comment

[superduh]

Op is here to just stir FUD. What his true intentionsare we will never know

[Frozenlock]

Am I doing it right?

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

I would say zoom out a little bit, think about months/years not days, and you will see that we could very well still be at A. This is still very early adopter stage, as we are talking about a global techology with possibly huge adoption potential.

Just compare this with apple and the iOS tsunami for example. Are we at the stage where everyone and their mother has BTC, everyone talks about it to death, all hedge funds invest in it and guarantee unlimited growth (we're past this for AAPL and price has now crashed)? Or are we still at a stage where people discover this, journalists still scrambling to understand it, most of your friends don't know about it, and very few mothers own BTC? If you think about all the money in circulation globally, and a 'market share' for BTC, I am guessing we are well under 1%, probably a few decimals from that? Certainly a lot less that when apple market share when stock was trading at $15.

Of course BTC is a game changer, the first global currency, so hard to compare with a generic chart which probably applied to pets.com and other high branding-low innovation startups.

Of course this is really speculation land, no one can predict world events that could really alter the price, or whether big money (hedge funds etc) will decide to get on board or fight this to the ground.

THIS!!!

[ManBearPig]

The graph like pattern can be considered a fractal.my two satoshis.

Yep, totally agree.

[Transisto]

[Geddi]

you will soon reach "Blow off phase"

[ElectricMucus]

Well I guess we have to ask the maker of this template if "valuation" is on a log scale.  

The problem is on a log scale that graph spans over 8 magnitudes from the current point.
That would make one BTC worth approximately USD 20,000,000,000.

Now if somebody comes up with an explanation besides hyperinflation I am all ears. But that wouldn't be "valuation" then.


oh btw:
don't blink


Oh and media attention was the good wife episode.