Bitcoin Forum

Why I see a global crypto bear market coming:

1. Charting: Daily (https://i.imgur.com/7lLDPV5.png). The daily 20 SMA that has supported this entire uptrend was broken with yesterday's close. The move towards 3k was riddled with weakness that displayed itself in multiple bearish divergences on the daily RSI.
Weekly (https://i.imgur.com/B8zCh2k.png). On the weekly timeframe, whlie not yet confirmed, it is likely we will both have the first red candle and the first time closing below the upper Bollinger Band.

2. Altcoin and ICO bubble. When there are $150 million ICOs, there is nothing more to say. Looking at Ethereum, it has pierced its 300 low, an entirely new behaviour in its chart highly suggestive that its bubble has popped. We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

Update: Here is my comparison of 2013 vs 2017.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png

excellent analysis.

I think the pump cycle has just been broken even without looking at all the stats and graphs because we have essentially been gotten used to bitcoin and altcoins going up 5-10% a day and calling that a norm. The breaking of this cycle is going to affect traders psychologically, and fueling further dumps in the crypto market.

Altcoins were too crazy to be sustainable as well, as you mentioned. There was no explanable reason why Ethereum had came so close to breaking bitcoin's market cap when it's got so many problems itself.

If this is turning around into a bear market, it is likely because of fears brought on by exchange ddos attacks. That being said, I'm not convinced that interest in buying bitcoin has fallen enough for this to go to levels much below $2300. I could see this rising back up to $3k. That being said, if more bad news comes out in the next couple days then I think it will enter bear market territory.

Technical analysis can be useful, mostly as a sanity check, but I don't think it is a reliable indicator on its own of a market trend turning around. Also I don't think $3k is a very significant mark psychologically. There could be some resistance but I doubt it is significant enough to make a real difference.

Exchange ddos attacks are most likely unrelated to the current crash.

Maybe it can explain why altcoins are crashing, but definitely not bitcoin. Also it should be noted that poloniex essentially went bust around 1 month ago but at this timeframe people were still pumping altcoins, as seen when Ethereum went to $400.

Point is that exchanges being defunct or partially defunct is bad, but not enough to make the whole market crash this much.

This is the thing that i agree the most with. Traders rely a lot on their emotions even though they try to limit it. 3k was not broken on most exchanges, and it'll cause a lot of traders panic selling.

there's a big difference between exchanges being slow and crappy and defunct. if poloniex officially died you would see the largest crash in human history.

Great analysis. I however believed that we had already been in a bearish market for quite a while now.

I agree on the 3k number, seems likely not to break for a while. But that's not a bad thing either. Give BTC and other crypto to keep focusing on what is important rather than increasing price and counting dosh.

Look at the crash of 2014 and how much was done for and around BTC and crypto. That is what got us to this point so one could hope for another crash perhaps.

You bring up a great point. Sentiment in Bitcoin was actually bearish the whole time during the rise. I think the rise may have been brought to us by the altcoin hype, and without them, we would have fallen in price. Now that the altcoin hype dies down …

And yes, this is going to boost Bitcoin's fundamentals in the longer term. We need to solve scaling, and to do that, we need to apply lots of pressure. Price decline is good pressure.

Indeed, the early signs were there already over the past two weeks or so. You could notice a lot of doubt in the market, and in the past few days confirmation for a bearish reversal has been coming in. For me it's not a question of whether BTC entered a bear market - as it has - but how long it will take this time. I don't think it will recover in a matter of weeks now: this will take months, and in the worst case, over a year to stabilize.

Now the great profit taking starts.

Bright side. We are still up 120 percent for the year. Name me anything in the stock market with a performance like that!
Also the blowhards slamming bitcoin and touting ether as the darling of the crypto world can now take a seat as they have taken a hit as well

IMO prices will hit 150%  rate per year soon. We are in correction mood and it will not continue more than 2 week.

Do you base that on a gut feeling? Why 150%? Why not 10, or a decrease of 50%? How do you come up with these numbers?
How do you know it will not last longer than two weeks if a bear market has actually started to take hold - as it appears?

Definitely due to the hype around alts right now. I never really understood the run up to almost $3k after the fact that ETF got denied.

I agree with you that Scaling needs a solution. Quickly. Perhaps if all the big shots could stop being egotistical power hungry children they could solve it together. Guess we'll have to wait and see what happens with the Forced SW and perhaps imminent HF.

I'm rather new to btc. can anybody be kind enough to explain what a "exchange ddos attack" is?

Also I'm very glad to see allot of members still sane despite the sudden drops. If this happened 1 month ago, I'd probably have just sold everything and quite BTC all together. It just so happens that I took a leap of faith, and read enough information here to somehow convince myself to mostly hodl in the long run.

this - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial-of-service_attack

applied to an exchange so no one can trade, but sometimes insiders still can.

That's fkt up. But thank you.

It's still rather unnerving though since BTC value is going back to the values where I first started. I guess I just happened to get into the scene whilst everything was in the middle of a huge wave.

Wouldn't the nearing of Australia's adoption help get it back into an uptrend though? Or is this somehow just a good preparation for it to be bought for cheaper prices?

Correction's are fine but I really don't want to see the bitcoin price fall much more than it already has over the last 2 days.

Correction for 2 week  :o That can easily push price to below $1500 support level, I think we will see some green candles by tomorrow morning and price might stabalized with some buy support at $2500.

Price overall in crypto has been rising a too fast as of late.  Too many newbies who don't understand the tech or the cycles ("weak hands") bought in, and so the correction at the peak is turning into a bubble pop for the whole market.  Not the end of crypto or bitcoin by any means, but not surprising.  Weak hands are in it to make a quick buck, and are far to skittish to handle the crypto markets.

Once the market finds a bottom, I expect experiences Bitcoin trades to buy back in at a steep discount.

Nervousness could also be triggered or affected by the approaching August 1 UASF, and again, lack of understanding of markets magnifies this effect.  Going to take  while to settle down after that date, no matter which way it goes.

Definitely agree on the point that there's a lot of newbies throwing money on Bitcoin without knowing anything. My neighbours cousins friends grandma just invested in Bitcoin due to what I said, does not seem to make a lot of sense but it is what it is.

As for August 1.. We are definitely in for some interesting times ahead of that. I believe we will go slowly up, but it could, as you say, go either way and the brakes could come off without a brick wall in sight.

Time will tell, as with all things.

Remember 2013 between the bubbles...  price fluctuated between the last ATH of 160 dollars to around double that number before finally breaking out into a new bubble.

If history repeats itself over an extended time line, we could see fluctuations between 1 and 3k USD for another year.

what you are saying about altcoin hype leading to bitcoin rise makes sense but i can't wrap my head around one thing.

lets assume your scenario was right.
people buy bitcoin with fiat and bitcoin price goes up.
they use that bitcoin to buy altcoins, so altcoins prices go up in alt/btc market.
then they stop doing that and take the bitcoin + profit and sell on btc/fiat market and price crashes.

this is what you are describing right?

but here is the thing. i see two types of altcoins, those on top which have both alt/btc and alt/fiat market and those small coins.
the small coins don't really get new money, it is a fixed amount of money that travels from one to the other and never exits other than from time to time the pumpers taking out the profit only. so i don't see this affecting bitcoin price that much.

about big altcoins if what you say is true, their prices in alt/btc market should drop because as we said people stopped using the BTC they bought in day 1 and now are selling that. but this is not happening!
for example LTC/BTC price has gone up about 10%
ripple went from 9K to 11K satoshi
NEM is still around 7700-8000 with little drop
ETC is still the same
Dash is still 0.066-0.067
ETH is probably the only one that dropped a bit.

in my opinion this shows the BTC has not left altcoin market for some reason it is the fiat that is exiting because all the altcoins i named are dropping hard in fiat value.
ETH -16%
XRP -13%
NEM -15%
LTC -6%
DASH -13%

This is good to refill on those cheap BTCBTCBTC

FTFY

Your TA meme analysis does not work. Technical Anaylsis is bullshit.

Just because you don't know how to do it properly doesn't mean that it fails to function effectively. That's like blaming a television for being defective because you forgot to put batteries in the remote.

This is shitmarket. Honey trap for people who are greedy enough to invest in coins and project without any serious background o premise.
For most ICOs word 'blockchain' is only a buzzword, for companies completely outside the blockchain area.
They will use the name "blockchain",  as a keyword to raise capital without need to comply to traditional securities regulation.

Time for some quality technical analysis.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png

The flaw in your thinking is that Bitcoin is in a bubble.

Where's the enthusiasm?

The euphoria?

Exponential growth? x10? x20? x30?

You want to see a bubble, look at alt coins, especially ETH.

We have a long way to go, unless a chain split happens...

This is a great analysis.

I do think that we are going to be in a bearish state for a while after this pump. It seems like the halving brings a lot of hype and enthusiasm to the bitcoin economy for around 1 year and then the rest of the 3 years it is relatively quiet. At the second or third year after a halving is probably the best time to buy bitcoins for cheap because everyone is thinking that bitcoin is "dead" once again.

I don't think though that it's going to crash as hard as 2013 simply because the pump was way more spread out, and we started seeing bearish signs more than a week ago but still haven't crashed that much yet.


Bitcoin was definitely in a bubble. But right now, i don't think it is. The bubble has already popped, there may be further adjustments but not that much.

Bear market is entirely likely for the coming months/years, but right now it doesn't seem like it's going to happen.

Reason being that if there was to be a dump, it would have happened a long time ago. Sure, there was a $400 or so price decrease, the price went down to sub-$2400 level, and everyone freaked out, but as soon as bitcoin hit $2400 and under, everyone started to buy in and price got bumped up again.

So at least for this month and the upcoming month, bitcoin isn't going to go any lower than $2300 in my opinion.

Of course, next year would be a completely different story. Bitcoin could crash down to $1,000, ICOs could get banned etc... But that's too far to make predictions about, we haven't even gotten to the UASF yet.

When is a correction a bubble?

What I'm worried about is the way BTCBTCBTC is presented to the common folk. It's treated as if it's an investment vehicle like those dotcom boom during the late 90's.

Then what is bitcoin,most of the investors coming into bitcoin thinks that it is a good place for investment,because of the minimal number of coins in existence and looking at the charts it is pretty good to say that it is a profitable investment .

Thank you Joerii, it means a lot to me when people who have been around for a longer time realize the nature of markets that there are periods with low risk/reward and periods of high risk/reward and you don't necessarily have to expose yourself to the latter.

I agree with you trading on pure emotion is bad. But, as you gain more experience, I find that emotions or notions, if they persist for a longer time, then it's because you sense that something isn't right.

For 20 months, I have had peace with my Bitcoin position, not even bothering to check on it too much save for the latest craze. But as all the information sunk in and the most likely scenario began to unfold, I could not have possibly fallen asleep while hodling this bag.

for me it's very crypto global marketplace help you when there is movement of the bitcoin growth between up and down so you can know when a shift value of bitcoin. price and technical analysis is very necessary here so that no error occurred

I guess your crypto global bear market has been postponed  ::)

I would not call it postponed. It is still looming in the background, any day now we are there (even though I already believe we have been for a while now). Not sure if you truly understand what it means to be in a bear market but what I'm seeing it's a given already. Not that I like it but it is what it is.

Alts are in a bubble, Bitcoin is not (yet). I have no doubt that alts will go bear sometime in the near future but Bitcoin will still be bull when that happens. The only thing, barring some catastrophic event, that could send Bitcoin bear in the near future would be a chain split.

So, keep hating on Bitcoin and I'll keep watching the price rise.

Now, when all this negative sentiment towards Bitcoin reverses and becomes enthusiasm, then I'll worry.

Great observation and analysis here mate. It seems you made a thorough research about this one. History does help us in knowing what the future will be. However, this does not guarantee anything at all. It might be just a coincidence of some sort but who knows, right? This is a good sign for what we might encounter all throughout the year. Thanks for your effort in putting this together.

Nice to see some nice analysis, but I think common sense is enough to know this, the market cap increased 10 times in the period of June 2016 to June 2017 and there is not a strong enough reason for this to have happened so the only conclusion is that this is a speculative bubble and like all the bubbles this is going to burst at some point.

Alt-coins are entering a global bear market but not Bitcoin, it will go up when we get Segwit.

Not discounting OP's analysis, I believe it's insightful and good to be wary.

But to me it just doesn't "feel" like we're near a top yet.  No FOMO, and bearish/skeptical sentiment the whole time this has been climbing. No really hard crash yet. Average Joe still sitting things out.

And then I just keep looking at this:

https://gemini.com/auction-data/

Someone is still pulling mega amounts of bitcoin off daily auction with no slow down. So the question is, does someone know something?

It feels to me like someone wants to park major $$$ in bitcoin for a while. Possibly as a hedge?  Fear trade?

I'll agree that alts are, to some extent, in a bubble right now. But I'll have to also say that I believe BTC is in a small bubble as well.

Am I hating on Bitcoin? I can't see where I've done that, lol. But if you want to just throw stuff out there since you can't properly debate, I'll consider myself the winner already.

I am praying for this to happen. Hopefully when scalability issue of bitcoin will be getting solved we can expect more number of new investors will be entering into bitcoin to take bitcoin prices in to new peak levels. Other than those scalability issues, I'm not finding any other things which are blocking bitcoin's progress for this time being.

There are many high-volume investors are just watching bitcoin on how it will be performing with its internal issues, if bitcoin will come out of those issues smoothly then definitely we can expect them to get into investing in large volumes.

August 1st will probably become a bloodbath and I would not necessarily think that BTC will spike all of a sudden. The issue has not only been about scalabillity, there's also the issue of differing minds trying to pull bitcoin their own way without compromise. What happens on August 1st will probably show us more about ourselves and what the future holds. I'm not looking forward to it.

There is a reason why SegWit is not yet activated, there is also a reason why talks of a HF has been on the drapes. As always time will tell, but I'm not positive to what is about to go down.

Ultimately, this is irrelevant

That is, whether Bitcoin finally gets SegWit or not. If the scalability issues are successfully resolved without entering potentially fatal deadlocks and hitting severe bugs somewhere down the line, then Bitcoin will likely remain the top cryptocurrency with its price surging to new highs. If it doesn't make it and kicks the bucket in the process or just turns extremely poisonous, people will just switch to some other coin (those who won't leave for good). Indeed, there will be a period of total chaos and complete anarchy in the markets, but crypto is not going to die anyway

2780 likely confirmed as the bull trap "return to normal" top following the 3k bubble top.

Price should pierce 2000 now.

If we see Bitcoin retracing to $2000, I wonder what will happen to altcoins.  ;D
At the start of the year, Bitcoin accounted for 88% of the crypto market value; now it accounts for less than 40%.

I probably would agree with the analysis if it was done in (late) May. Both Bitcoin - and many altcoins even more - would be definitively in bubble territory if there was no fundamental advancement. A 10x price increase in a year looks ultra-bubblish if there is nothing that can explain it (and no, "exponential" and "bubble" does not mean 10x in a week ;) - 2011/2013 will never happen again imo).

But at this moment I think the Segwit2x optimism - slowly building up - will retain the bear market a while, and even it's probable for me that we will enter another bullish leg and a new all time high. It is however possible that we every now and then will "crash" again in the 1800-2200 territory - e.g. when there are too aggressive Bitmain statements.

A massive altcoin selloff is likely at some point, but I think it will hit the Bitcoin price only for a short period, if everything on the "scaling agenda" plays out well.

You are being fooled by the numbers which don't have any connection to reality

And let me guess, these percentages were calculated based on the market cap of the coins, right? If you want to evaluate how things actually stand, you should look at how much money has been poured into a certain coin in absolute values,not percentages. If Bitcoin received, say, 1 billion dollars while some shit coin only 1 million and Bitcoin market share dropped 2 times because of that (this is quite possible), then 1 billion dollars is still 1,000 times more than 1 million and no meddling and fiddling with numbers can change that

Ethereum blew through its low from June 21st (excluding the GDAX $13 flash crash).

The Global Crypto Bear continues.

Ethereum is going to get so rekt. Bitcoin not as much.

I'm pretty sure that most altcoins definitively have passed their highs (that won't be reached in 2017) and I expect some hard selloffs in the next weeks. There will be some that still resist a bit and are used for hedging (Litecoin and Nxt still are doing well, for example) but eventually they also will go down.

It seemed a bit strange that Ethereum failed to reach BTC's market cap being so close, I had expected at least a further attack from the ETH bulls. Now the "flippening" dream seems definitively over (Eth is straight going down to 50% of BTC's market cap again). Probably the flippening was only an excuse for a pump'n'dump game like we have seen it so many times.

BTC is going down a bit but without too much pressure - I expect a retest of the 2200 region next week.

Of course it was. And it was a successful FUD campaign, I have to give the PnD'ers a slow clap for that.

When I started seeing newb crypto enthusiasts on youtube talking about "Buy Ethereum, and maybe a little Bitcoin [in that order]" I knew the absolute mind job of the "floppening" was complete. The pumpers managed to push newbs away from Bitcoin and toward a new tech that is still so nascent, prepubescent, and basically unproven at this point, with a market float about 500 times thinner than Bitcoin.

The fact that a small whale was able to crash ETH on a single exchange all the way down to $0.30 is not a surprise to me at all. Just wait until the mega whales go full on ape shit shorting against ETH across all the major exchanges, it'll probably see the single digits once again when the carnage is finally over.

Things may be different this time

Basically, we have never been in this situation before (I refer to the threat of Bitcoin split), so we can't say for certain how things are going to evolve in the near future (and I guess no one can with any degree of certainty). If a massive exodus from Bitcoin starts for real, it is almost certain that most people will move to fiat (dollars or whatever), but some of them will likely decide to switch to altcoins. Personally, I stake at Litecoin. But since the real market for altcoins is very shallow (this has nothing to do with the so-called "market cap", just in case), even this money may suffice to boost prices of the altcoin that gets primarily chosen by the majority of these folks

dETH is now over 50% deflated. Much more to go still.

Similarly with BTC. As can be easily observed, bear markets are healthy for Bitcoin dominance.

I'll lean towards the correction argument based on the current trending and that we will find a new stable point now as we trend down for the intermin transitional period to it. It may take some time for the market to find the bottom though.

Although I do not agree with your analysis on BTC, i do agree that ETH will adjust a ton in coming days/weeks.

I still struggle to understand why ETH was so close to breaknig the market cap of bitcoin in the first place when it's got so many problems with its blockchain. And it's not like the smart contracts that ETH has which is apparently its selling point has any real value than for ICOs...

I think that bitcoin will stabilize at somewhere in between $2200-2300. That is probably the most likely thing that will happen. So I expect a 10% adjustment in the coming weeks, until UASF in August. ETH will go back to $100, and bitcoin dominance will go >60% at LEAST.

Can you give us a more thorough explanation why you think so? Saying that Bitcoin will go up "because Segwit" is not enough. Do not forget, the UASF could get messy and could split the blockchain in 2. A dumping war might ensue bringing the price of Bitcoin down under $2000.

Because market cap is used to fool people into thinking that a coin has any value (well, a high value). When a coin has around 80% of its total supply premined and which never entered circulation while the rest of circulation gets locked into various projects, it won't take a lot of effort and money to make the market cap as high as you please. I guess if Ethereum received even one tenth of liquidity that Bitcoin habitually handles, its market cap would be in the hundreds of billions already

This is to show how meaningless and irrelevant the market cap figures are

https://prnt.sc/foyjaj

Global crypto markets have made the famed M top or double top[1]. I've studied BTC, XMR, ETH and LTC charts and all are in similar positions.

This only goes to show that new people coming into bitcoin treat all crypto the same. Risk off is not running to BTC instead of ALTS, it is running to FIAT.

Everyone forgets that we've been in bull mode for close to 2 years. Good news like "segwit enabled" in a bear market will only push the price down!

[1] http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doubletop.asp

Blitz, how long do you speculate the bear market will last? IMO, I think it'll dip under $2,000 and then eventually continue on by late 2017/ early 2018.

What bear market?

The one in the imagination of wishful thinkers dreaming of cheap coins.

Nothing in Bitcoin is cheap anymore. If the price falls by 50% overnight the price would still be around $1000. That is far from "cheap".

Altcoins are going to be the main ones that are affected here, not bitcoin.

If Segwit is implemented then bitcoin price is going to go up and be stable at a certain level. People i think are parking their funds currently in altcoins because they are afraid of the upcoming fork. Once it's gone though, bitcoin's dominance will increase by at least 20% back to an acceptable level, perhaps even 30% if ETH bubble crashes.

If chain split occurs tthough hen obviously it's going to be bad for bitcoin's image, and this infightinig is definitely going to negatively impact bitcoin, and this is one of the only scenarios where bitcoin will drop alongside altcoins.


Cheap altcoins? Likely. Cheap BTC? Prolly not.

But $1000 is obvious cheaper compared to current prices. This was what he must be referring.

@OP
There are people still waiting for buying bitcoins around $800 and spreading FUDs just to make their dreams come true. Crypto world is so small hence there would be no sensible in calling "global crypto market" as there is no local market nor country specific market. Investors come and investors go, it happens across all crypto, if you are referring that then that must be right but late night recovery proved there is no power to bear yet.

I don't think that many people are parking their monetary wealth in altcoins

Most of them are certainly looking for fiat, anyway. But since altcoins are way behind Bitcoin, even a small part of money withdrawn from Bitcoin will be enough to give a substantial boost to a few chosen altcoins where this money ends up in at the end of the day. This is what I personally expect to happen in July, and I think that it will be Litecoin where a few whales may choose to park their wealth in case Bitcoin is going to plummet dramatically when things start looking really grim for it in the next month

Looking good, and I could not be more happy. Don't get me wrong I have nothing against ETH but it's value has been insane lately while there is nothing to really support it. As we can see with the "days of red" previously where basically all the alts are crashing is just the start of this Bear market. Well spotted and I could not agree more that we are, and have been there for a while now.

Everyone dream of getting the coin at a fair price, i am not hiding my frustration of letting go my coins before reaching $2000 thinking that the resistance would drag the price down and i was wrong,but since there is a pretty solid resistance at $3000 i am looking at a fair price to jump in ,before that i have to see how the market will perform till August and i am sure we wont see a bull run that crosses $3000 before that.

As a perma-bull I'm probably not allowed to mention a bear trend, or say anything that would sound alarmist. Lol.

But I will just say that from a technical standpoint and past experience, a rising price on falling volume has never been a good sign in past bull runs. We'd need some serious rising buying volume from here forward to break the 2630 level and keep going higher.

Just sayin'. Stay frosty my friends. I hope it's in the cards.

It is one thing to be perma-bull, it is another to not understand the risks that exponentially rising price has on mid-term (weekly) trends.


ding ding ding

Somebody knows what's going on around here!

Volume may be falling because people are taking their coins off exchanges and putting them into storage due to looming hard-fork, which would drive the price up, not down. Strange times may produce strange outcomes. Don't get caught with your pants down  ;)

btc4lifer hit the nail on it's head here. Falling volume + increasing price = Fishy business.

I hear what you are saying FiendCoin but I doubt that's the case. Why would people suddenly remove their coins from an exchange to HODL? The hodlers will already hodl and the traders will always trade. There's a lot of people trying to make bank on Bitcoin that are not really interested in Bitcoin at all. Very understandable though considering the % increase we've seen over the years.

Long term holders are good, i think most of us here are indeed long term believers in bitcoin. However, if you blindly invest in bitcoin when it is at its ATH and so on then you're taking an absolutely huge risk - especially if you are trading with margin. If you're trading with your own money you're potentially losing out on a lot of profit, i mean yeah the people who bought at the 2013 ATH made 100% profit but if you bought a year later, you would have made 5-7x more

And yeah, falling volume + alt hype + low bitcoin dominance, it's not a good match at all. AND the entire market cap of crypto is struggling to keep afloat above $100bil.

I've been hodling since before the term "HODL" came to be.

But I'm a trader and I'm a realist. nekrobios is absolutely correct that ETH ate our lunch for the moment and bubble conditions need to be dealt with.

Some replying in this thread are just underestimating the potential downside here. They are not wrong that bitcoin will m00n further at some point in the future given that it survives.

I'll leave you kind gents/ladies with the potential targets...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XcAuoR97/

If we have really welcomed the bears, then it is still a good sign in my opinion, and we should view it as a big open window of opportunity to invest, because the bulls might just take over anytime, so no better time to invest than when the bears are still in control.

This should be updated to the $750 million figure with the bancor / status raises :o

I'm sure these ICOs don't see any risk in HODLing an asset that has 50% swings in weekly time frames  :D

I strongly support that view

And this is what I've been telling myself recently. I saw people selling their bitcoins with prices plummeting to around 2,200 dollars per coin, and then price somehow managed to revert to 2,500 dollars but the market is thin. It basically means that those who sold their stashes don't buy back and seem to prefer to stay in fiat for the time being. As to me, that doesn't bode well for Bitcoin, and the price may easily crash if some negative news hits the tabloids (of Jihan Wu comes up with a new "initiative")

Seems real bearish to me  ::)

With all the CSW drama, I'm surprised we didn't drop to 1800 tho. Bitcoin seems to be very resilient to FUD these days.

Oh no it might fall to 1800 at some point. This is super scary. Global bear market! That means Bitcoin will be falling in EVERY country.

Wow if that happen a lots of lucky long term holder will take advantage as we all knew good bounce back will happen and for the long term holders those who can hold within 2-3 years will be the winner for sure.

As the saying goes, it works until it doesn't

I've been telling people to move at least some of their wealth to Litecoin since it was lower than 30 dollars per coin (and pack the rest in fiat, preferably in the US dollar). Today Litecoin has jumped to over 50 dollars (seems to be an ATH) and is likely set to continue rising as Bitcoin prices essentially stagnate. Basically, some long-term Bitcoin believers are trying to push Bitcoin prices higher while more rational people use this moment to sell their bitcoins and either stay with dollars (for the time being) or buy litecoins. I promised one dude here to inform him personally when Litecoin's price reaches 100 dollars and it might not take long after all (with 500 dollars per coin being the "fair" price)

LOL.

I remember lingering around here in 2013...

It was said then, that any coin with less than a $1million marketcap was a crap coin and had no future...

In fact any coin that was not bitcoin was a crapcoin...some said.

Back then to be in the top 10, a coin needed like $5m marketcap.

Now...

Some coins that were worth less than a cent are worth well over a dollar.

To be in the top 100 today you need to have at least $23 Million marketcap and the top ten you need over 600 million...

Show me any stocks with growth like that.

haha some perspective for those thinking a dip from 3k to 2.5 from a surge from 1k is the end of the world... I think BTC was about $80 when I started watching it in 2013. Should have bought 10k worth then.

I bet some serious millionaires will have been made since then...

So much for those crap coins and the global crypto bear market.

For everything to go smooth the scaling have to complete without any further mess and struggle and if that happens then the price will soar to new heights without a doubt,let us wait and watch what the situation will be at the end,until then i will focus my concentration on alt coins.

Weekly close doesn't look so strong for major top now. Some weeks of coiling and a rapid pump and dump would look like a real top. Imagine how shitty the indicators would look then. While i agree with reasons for a bear market, i think not many gets to call the top this easily. Diverging indicators in parabolic markets doesn't mean much, could just be resetting before another run. I have not really seen any strong indication of the euphoric sentiment needed to dump to shit from here and way too many traders flip bearish any chance they get. Coiling action with MACD resetting on daily level is not so bad IMO, which is pretty much what's happening now. Did also break out of short term triangle to the upside, though could still be a cruel fakeout.

I wouldn't bet big on either direction, just hedge down moves and ride the market on spot if it goes up is my strategy

… and continues.

...and it will until it bottoms. We might see a mini rally around August if things go well with SegWit, but unless we can break ~$2700, then we'll see a double top and technical trading resume the downtrend until we bottom.

Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.

Test of previous multi year ATH should be in order at $1163...  :o

I don't dare predict bottoms before they happen.

I have made a realization, however. The bear market is likely to continue until at least February 2018 because that's when the 2 MB hard fork is supposed to happen. Currently, the debate is a little subdued because everyone is fine with getting Segwit. It's the path afterward where the civil war will break out for earnest. Until that is resolved, I cannot imagine mid/long term bullish conditions.

Yeah, it seems like Bitcoin will perpetually and forever have another "enemy" or "event" on the horizon or around the corner that is attempting to thwart or undermine it. It's never ending.

That being said though, I think that the Bitcoin market will mostly trade on bot-driven technicals and in hindsight this mini bubble will look pretty much exactly like every other one did, with a double top and gradual wane. It'll probably take until mid summer next year before we start to see a final bottom.

Like Satoshi said, "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." Bitcoin and every other mined crypto has tended to prove this out over and over again over the long term.

Yeah. Nothing new under the sun.

But admittedly, there is and has always been a tail risk of "failure" for Bitcoin where it could be supplanted. We've seen a scamcoin come close on paper this bubble (with 80% of BTC's cap). I'm faithful we'll manage to upgrade to Segwit, have Lightning Network etc., but I do want to avoid this risk entirely.

This bear market must end with Bitcoin as the clear victor, smashing all the scamcoins. Currently 49% dominance, still more to go.

It will frighten people, and become a good news for traders as they could keep buy and sell to extract more profits.
I thought bitcoin price will be stable after reach $1800 and won't decrease any further, but I may be wrong.
I expected for bitcoin price recover after August 1^st but uncertain news may influence people to sell, it is a loss to sell bitcoin at the moments. Just make sure you sell if there's no any other option to get cash.

They say 6 months in the New York Agreement (https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-consensus-2017-133521fe9a77). Has there been any new info?

I guess it works better in reverse

So I could say that "the cost of mining a coin tends to gravitate toward its market price" (you can quote me on this too, ©). Really, the cost of mining is ultimately determined by the price of the coin. For example, if the price rises, we should soon expect the cost of mining to rise as well since more miners will enter the competition being attracted by increased profits. And this competition will eventually reduce profit margins to a minimum, which necessarily means costs coming close to market price. As to me, this inference is more correct

Correct.

But again, only with mined coins. The premined/POS cryptos are fked, they have no mining floor to fall back on that is driven by supply/demand economics.

Interesting. Don't know why they changed it, but if so, I'll have to revise it to November 2017.

In fact, this is basic economics

But you seem to be missing something here. Premined coins are already mined so they are out of the equation completely. What I say here refers only to coins that are currently being mined. In this way, the coins that have been mined in the past (premined coins included) are not part of the picture altogether. It is today's cost of mining that eventually moves closer and closer to today's price. Costs that have been made in the past can even be higher than the current price but they are not considered

Well, the price development of the last days support again my theory that the Bitcoin market is waiting for fundamental signals. When a bit of uncertainty was inserted in the market because of the Btc1 delay, the price went down below $2000 - and now that Btc1 is being deployed and first BIP91 blocks are mined, it jumped already $300 to the upside. (Big party for traders ...)

Most altcoins, for now, follow the upmove. But they won't reach their previous highs - it's only a bounce - while Bitcoin probably will if everything plays out well with Segwit. As I expected. LTC price is increasing slower than most other coins' price - because LTC has only a chance to keep its value if Segwit in BTC fails.

Is it really so?

I didn't check other coins since I'm not very interested in them (so bear with me). Nevertheless, even if it is, you shouldn't forget that Litecoin went down a lot slower than Bitcoin and I guess a lot slower than the rest of the pack. In this way, it had been in fact rising in Bitcoin terms, so we could now very well expect it to go down (again, in Bitcoin terms) when Bitcoin rebounds. Personally, though, I think that Litecoin will continue to rise in the long run whether SegWit is activated in Bitcoin or not. The damage is done anyway

Yes, a basic look at Coinmarketcap shows that Bitcoin and most other cryptocoins recovered more than 10 (and some more than 15%, like ETH) in the last 24 hours, while LTC got only ~5%.

It is surely related to the slower downtrend of LTC you mention. But the point is that I think LTC is used like a hedging vehicle for the case that Segwit2x fails so Litecoin could continue with the privilege to be the "biggest coin with SegWit". If this money goes out of LTC I think it will fall drastically - unless they really manage to get real-world adoption of Lightning, or at least atomic swaps, faster than BTC.

Are your opinion LTC need have technology sending fast as DGB in present if want compete with BTC?
In few months ago after SegWit, the price of LTC just falldown to lowest price although we are know this happens very normal with altcoin have more speculator invest! But until July, LTC had prove it not an altcoin failure when SegWit and increasing to 0.02x BTC. In my opinion the real value of LTC need high than 0.015 BTC is good

I certainly see your point

As well as where you likely fail in your reasoning. In short, you implicitly assume that Litecoin growth was specifically due to SegWit (and Lightning Network) activation, but, as to me, this is a false assumption (at least, for the most part). If it were so, we would see the Litecoin price spike even before SegWit activation or soon thereafter. But it didn't happen, and, in fact, it couldn't since SegWit (and still more Lightning Network) are pretty irrelevant and inconsequential for this coin as of yet. In my view, Litecoin rose to prominence, so to speak, not because of SegWit as such but rather because of its robust improvement model, i.e. the way the required changes get accepted without much ado, without needless and useless showdown. And it seems that Litecoin has been quickly rising these last hours

Global Crypto Bear what?  ::)

Pessimists wanna revise your predictions of doom and gloom (at least for Bitcoin)?

Nekrobios, have you revised your outlook yet? I've been studying Wyckoff, and it seems like this could be what is known as "up thrust after distribution." This is characterized by weak shorts being squeezed and late buyers. Given the huge price/volume spike we saw the other week, I'm still open to the idea that the major buying climax has occurred, and that we are in a weak last wave up.

I'm not super confident in that analysis, but looking at traditional Wyckoff charts, it seems to fit very well.

This shit again?

THERE IS NO BEAR MARKET!

This doesn't necessarily suggest a bear market. A Wyckoff cycle is characterized by mark-up (price rise), distribution, and then mark-down (correction). Even if the possibility above plays out, that doesn't suggest a bear market like we had in 2014. It could just as easily play out like the correction following the April 2013 cycle. Even though the lost gains from the April top felt like bearish price action, the reality is that it was a fairly sideways correction. That's still possible here, if there is a major top in the $3000s.

It's hard to say where this market is going to end up this year, or when the true top will be found. It appears going up is the only direction in the short term. Which certainly doesn't make me sad.  ;D

Although, I'm not sure the market has much choice right now. All users and most traders pulled their coins off of exchanges before the fork. That created a very thin market. And with few coins on exchanges to short with, and very few sellers, that means the only direction the market can go is up. With the float being so thin, that means any push up is going to rip higher faster.

Actually, there's no top, because: http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/

I guess this is debatable

While some folks might have actually moved their coins from exchanges to local wallets whereas some others might have even sold their coins for fiat or converted them to altcoins, there should have been quite a few people who might have moved their bitcoins to exchanges specifically to receive BCC after a number of exchanges announced that they were going to credit Bitcoin Cash coins to their clients. Other than that, we should in fact expect market thinning and volatility escalating when the price surges. There is simply no other way around given Bitcoin speculative nature

this makes a lot of sense. but now that the UASF split didn't happen, and the Bcash fork is done with and exchanges seem to have a good handle on it, do you think users/traders will move their coins back to the exchanges?

it seems like that huge spike in shorts on bitfinex was forced to close, whether by the market going up, or the exchange forcing them to close a hedge related to the Bcash payouts.

Nekrobios, admit you were wrong, there is no bear market.

Just bumping this thread so noobs here can use Nekrobios' calls as a contraindicator.

You are very welcome.  ;D

While you're right that Bitcoin's price evolution looks still insanely bullish, most cryptocurrencies have lost value compared to BTC (with some exceptions, the biggest being Antshares/Neo), with respect to the time the OP was posted. Nobody is talking about a "Flippening" anymore.

As Bitcoin still leads the cryptocurrency world, it's true we cannot speak of a "crypto bear market", but we're still in an "altcoin bear market". The "bull market" is only lead by BTC, and its extremely good performance is most likely driven by the Segwit activation. So what I predicted in this post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1967662.msg19742428#msg19742428) is still valid.

You're wrong too. The crypto market is a ever growing and expanding market where more and more people around the world want a piece.

While some alts may be bubbly, Bitcoin is not, yet.

People are pumping alts because they want to see the success early BTC investors have had.

Is a crash possible? Sure. Is one Imminent? Not likely.

The crypto market is still bullish as hell.  ETH is almost $400, Monero is almost $150, LTC is $65 and others are up as well.

The question is, what happens when BTC does go into a bubble? Do alts follow as in 2013 or do they crash?

Bottomline, THERE IS NO BEAR MARKET!

For sure. Don't forget that the higher Bitcoin's price is climbing up throughout the years, the more people will be pushed into the altcoin market due to the far lower unit prices. Instead of them investing $500 to get themselves 0.1BTC, they could buy thousands of alts for that same $500. In most cases, people with a lower overall starting capital will more likely prefer to get more coin quanitity for their bucks than just a tiny bit of a whole Bitcoin. On top of that, it gives them the believe that they might have bought themselves in the next best Bitcoin, where its price might explode in value as well. I personally don't add much value to any sort of altcoin, but I do like that crypto in general is experiencing a massive amount of growth lately.

You should follow the price of Litecoin

It is nearing 70 dollars per piece right now, not a far cry from 100 dollars where we could get overnight. I told you that I will let you know, and I certainly will. But once we reach a hundred dollar price tag things may change dramatically. This is kinda a magic number, and a lot of folks will see the light all of a sudden. Would you then reconsider your overall negative attitude toward altcoins in general and Litecoin in particular? If not, which price tag will make you do so?

That is what people already thought in 2013 ;D

Some of your remarks are true, like that altcoins are more likely to lose more value in a coming all-cryptocurrency crash. But Bitcoin has also overheated, and "overheating" is all what bubbles are about. I think we are not far from a top that could last for more than half a year. And the most likely event that may trigger a bear market is the Segwit2x conflict in November.

Some of the indications why I think that Bitcoin is overheating can be read in this thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1990487.0). (Caution, math inside!)

We've come along way since 2013. Lots of new money is pouring in from new sources. We're just starting. No doubt there will be more dips along way but after we'll keep reaching higher until we go exponential and parabolic. Then we'll have a crash 50-70% maybe. Homie, we got ALONG way to go to get there. Too many people still afraid, like yourself. Overheating? Gimme a break.

I do think we'll get a nice dip around November. It'll probably take a few weeks to recover, maybe a few months depends how bad it is. People like you will be saying the sky is falling but it'll just be a corrective dip that we'll recover from as we head 10k+.

But hey, keep with the fear and negativity, it just means we're heading higher. Don't get caught in a bear trap  ;D

... and what you say is what people were thinking back in January 2017 when they were calling the rally to $1000+ as repetition of 2013 specially since it coincided with PBoC inspection of Chinese exchanges and the rise to the previous ATH. and look where we are now!

a couple of example topics from pages 30-40 of this board (8-9 months ago):
Welcome back 2014, and calling $600 bottom (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1740417.0)
Dead cat bounce by kwukduck and calling $500 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1760857.0)
article saying hold but at the same time comparing the rise to 2013 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1751254.0)
2017 the new 2013 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1736370.0)
 ;D

price has more doubled since you sold your bitcoins. did you buy back between June and now? at what loss?

i am necroing this thread because I was close to sell myself. I am not laughing at you. it is important to see that even in
the midst of an ultra bullish performance like 2017 has shown, even experienced bitcoiners can get scared. 

Expect another scare in the next 4-6 weeks. Maybe a multi-month correction before the bull continues in 2018.

If you really believe in Bitcoin, no dip, drop, crash or whatever should deter you.

I don't expect another big bear market until we hit somewhere over 30k+.

We all expect that

Somehow, the longer you stay in the market, the more pessimistic you become. We are constantly proved wrong in our decisions (but that's normal), and it seems to affect our overall sentiment. Indeed, we all sincerely hope for the price to rise higher but given the amount of trading mistakes we made in the past, the weight of them starts to inadvertently affect our thinking, and we might end up being overly or even extremely pessimistic. In this way, novice traders may have a sort of advantage unless the price is really going to tank massively. And then our hour of triumph comes

I am waiting for global stocks bear market not a crypto bear market.
stock chart is very similar to ex economic crisis chart.

how did it all work out for you? have you bought back in since june 2017?

/thread