Global Crypto Bear Market

[talkbitcoin]

We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

what you are saying about altcoin hype leading to bitcoin rise makes sense but i can't wrap my head around one thing.

lets assume your scenario was right.
people buy bitcoin with fiat and bitcoin price goes up.
they use that bitcoin to buy altcoins, so altcoins prices go up in alt/btc market.
then they stop doing that and take the bitcoin + profit and sell on btc/fiat market and price crashes.

this is what you are describing right?

but here is the thing. i see two types of altcoins, those on top which have both alt/btc and alt/fiat market and those small coins.
the small coins don't really get new money, it is a fixed amount of money that travels from one to the other and never exits other than from time to time the pumpers taking out the profit only. so i don't see this affecting bitcoin price that much.

about big altcoins if what you say is true, their prices in alt/btc market should drop because as we said people stopped using the BTC they bought in day 1 and now are selling that. but this is not happening!
for example LTC/BTC price has gone up about 10%
ripple went from 9K to 11K satoshi
NEM is still around 7700-8000 with little drop
ETC is still the same
Dash is still 0.066-0.067
ETH is probably the only one that dropped a bit.

in my opinion this shows the BTC has not left altcoin market for some reason it is the fiat that is exiting because all the altcoins i named are dropping hard in fiat value.
ETH -16%
XRP -13%
NEM -15%
LTC -6%
DASH -13%

[collac]

This is good to refill on those cheap BTCBTCBTC

[N12]

This is good to refill on those cheap $$$

FTFY

[Sevvero]

Why I see a global crypto bear market coming:

1. Charting: Daily. The daily 20 SMA that has supported this entire uptrend was broken with yesterday's close. The move towards 3k was riddled with weakness that displayed itself in multiple bearish divergences on the daily RSI.
Weekly. On the weekly timeframe, whlie not yet confirmed, it is likely we will both have the first red candle and the first time closing below the upper Bollinger Band.

2. Altcoin and ICO bubble. When there are $150 million ICOs, there is nothing more to say. Looking at Ethereum, it has pierced its 300 low, an entirely new behaviour in its chart highly suggestive that its bubble has popped. We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

Your TA meme analysis does not work. Technical Anaylsis is bullshit.

[secousa]

Your TA meme analysis does not work. Technical Anaylsis is bullshit.

Just because you don't know how to do it properly doesn't mean that it fails to function effectively. That's like blaming a television for being defective because you forgot to put batteries in the remote.

[Hazir]

2. Altcoin and ICO bubble. When there are $150 million ICOs, there is nothing more to say. Looking at Ethereum, it has pierced its 300 low, an entirely new behaviour in its chart highly suggestive that its bubble has popped. We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

This is shitmarket. Honey trap for people who are greedy enough to invest in coins and project without any serious background o premise.
For most ICOs word 'blockchain' is only a buzzword, for companies completely outside the blockchain area.
They will use the name "blockchain",  as a keyword to raise capital without need to comply to traditional securities regulation.

[N12]

Time for some quality technical analysis.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png

[FiendCoin]

Time for some quality technical analysis.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png

The flaw in your thinking is that Bitcoin is in a bubble.

Where's the enthusiasm?

The euphoria?

Exponential growth? x10? x20? x30?

You want to see a bubble, look at alt coins, especially ETH.

We have a long way to go, unless a chain split happens...

[Yuuto]

This is a great analysis.

I do think that we are going to be in a bearish state for a while after this pump. It seems like the halving brings a lot of hype and enthusiasm to the bitcoin economy for around 1 year and then the rest of the 3 years it is relatively quiet. At the second or third year after a halving is probably the best time to buy bitcoins for cheap because everyone is thinking that bitcoin is "dead" once again.

I don't think though that it's going to crash as hard as 2013 simply because the pump was way more spread out, and we started seeing bearish signs more than a week ago but still haven't crashed that much yet.

Time for some quality technical analysis.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png

The flaw in your thinking is that Bitcoin is in a bubble.

Where's the enthusiasm?

The euphoria?

Exponential growth? x10? x20? x30?

You want to see a bubble, look at alt coins, especially ETH.

We have a long way to go, unless a chain split happens...

Bitcoin was definitely in a bubble. But right now, i don't think it is. The bubble has already popped, there may be further adjustments but not that much.

[btcney]

Bear market is entirely likely for the coming months/years, but right now it doesn't seem like it's going to happen.

Reason being that if there was to be a dump, it would have happened a long time ago. Sure, there was a $400 or so price decrease, the price went down to sub-$2400 level, and everyone freaked out, but as soon as bitcoin hit $2400 and under, everyone started to buy in and price got bumped up again.

So at least for this month and the upcoming month, bitcoin isn't going to go any lower than $2300 in my opinion.

Of course, next year would be a completely different story. Bitcoin could crash down to $1,000, ICOs could get banned etc... But that's too far to make predictions about, we haven't even gotten to the UASF yet.

[FiendCoin]

This is a great analysis.

I do think that we are going to be in a bearish state for a while after this pump. It seems like the halving brings a lot of hype and enthusiasm to the bitcoin economy for around 1 year and then the rest of the 3 years it is relatively quiet. At the second or third year after a halving is probably the best time to buy bitcoins for cheap because everyone is thinking that bitcoin is "dead" once again.

I don't think though that it's going to crash as hard as 2013 simply because the pump was way more spread out, and we started seeing bearish signs more than a week ago but still haven't crashed that much yet.

Time for some quality technical analysis.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png

The flaw in your thinking is that Bitcoin is in a bubble.

Where's the enthusiasm?

The euphoria?

Exponential growth? x10? x20? x30?

You want to see a bubble, look at alt coins, especially ETH.

We have a long way to go, unless a chain split happens...

Bitcoin was definitely in a bubble. But right now, i don't think it is. The bubble has already popped, there may be further adjustments but not that much.

When is a correction a bubble?

[lumeire]

Bear market is entirely likely for the coming months/years, but right now it doesn't seem like it's going to happen.

Reason being that if there was to be a dump, it would have happened a long time ago. Sure, there was a $400 or so price decrease, the price went down to sub-$2400 level, and everyone freaked out, but as soon as bitcoin hit $2400 and under, everyone started to buy in and price got bumped up again.

So at least for this month and the upcoming month, bitcoin isn't going to go any lower than $2300 in my opinion.

Of course, next year would be a completely different story. Bitcoin could crash down to $1,000, ICOs could get banned etc... But that's too far to make predictions about, we haven't even gotten to the UASF yet.

What I'm worried about is the way BTCBTCBTC is presented to the common folk. It's treated as if it's an investment vehicle like those dotcom boom during the late 90's.

[Mia Wallace]

What I'm worried about is the way BTCBTCBTC is presented to the common folk. It's treated as if it's an investment vehicle like those dotcom boom during the late 90's.

Then what is bitcoin,most of the investors coming into bitcoin thinks that it is a good place for investment,because of the minimal number of coins in existence and looking at the charts it is pretty good to say that it is a profitable investment .

[N12]

Thank you Joerii, it means a lot to me when people who have been around for a longer time realize the nature of markets that there are periods with low risk/reward and periods of high risk/reward and you don't necessarily have to expose yourself to the latter.

I agree with you trading on pure emotion is bad. But, as you gain more experience, I find that emotions or notions, if they persist for a longer time, then it's because you sense that something isn't right.

For 20 months, I have had peace with my Bitcoin position, not even bothering to check on it too much save for the latest craze. But as all the information sunk in and the most likely scenario began to unfold, I could not have possibly fallen asleep while hodling this bag.

[sasaku bitbit]

Your TA meme analysis does not work. Technical Anaylsis is bullshit.

Just because you don't know how to do it properly doesn't mean that it fails to function effectively. That's like blaming a television for being defective because you forgot to put batteries in the remote.

for me it's very crypto global marketplace help you when there is movement of the bitcoin growth between up and down so you can know when a shift value of bitcoin. price and technical analysis is very necessary here so that no error occurred

[FiendCoin]

Why I see a global crypto bear market coming:

1. Charting: Daily. The daily 20 SMA that has supported this entire uptrend was broken with yesterday's close. The move towards 3k was riddled with weakness that displayed itself in multiple bearish divergences on the daily RSI.
Weekly. On the weekly timeframe, whlie not yet confirmed, it is likely we will both have the first red candle and the first time closing below the upper Bollinger Band.

2. Altcoin and ICO bubble. When there are $150 million ICOs, there is nothing more to say. Looking at Ethereum, it has pierced its 300 low, an entirely new behaviour in its chart highly suggestive that its bubble has popped. We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

Update: Here is my comparison of 2013 vs 2017.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png

I guess your crypto global bear market has been postponed 

[Hhampuz]

Why I see a global crypto bear market coming:

1. Charting: Daily. The daily 20 SMA that has supported this entire uptrend was broken with yesterday's close. The move towards 3k was riddled with weakness that displayed itself in multiple bearish divergences on the daily RSI.
Weekly. On the weekly timeframe, whlie not yet confirmed, it is likely we will both have the first red candle and the first time closing below the upper Bollinger Band.

2. Altcoin and ICO bubble. When there are $150 million ICOs, there is nothing more to say. Looking at Ethereum, it has pierced its 300 low, an entirely new behaviour in its chart highly suggestive that its bubble has popped. We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

Update: Here is my comparison of 2013 vs 2017.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png

I guess your crypto global bear market has been postponed 

I would not call it postponed. It is still looming in the background, any day now we are there (even though I already believe we have been for a while now). Not sure if you truly understand what it means to be in a bear market but what I'm seeing it's a given already. Not that I like it but it is what it is.

[FiendCoin]

Why I see a global crypto bear market coming:

1. Charting: Daily. The daily 20 SMA that has supported this entire uptrend was broken with yesterday's close. The move towards 3k was riddled with weakness that displayed itself in multiple bearish divergences on the daily RSI.
Weekly. On the weekly timeframe, whlie not yet confirmed, it is likely we will both have the first red candle and the first time closing below the upper Bollinger Band.

2. Altcoin and ICO bubble. When there are $150 million ICOs, there is nothing more to say. Looking at Ethereum, it has pierced its 300 low, an entirely new behaviour in its chart highly suggestive that its bubble has popped. We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

Update: Here is my comparison of 2013 vs 2017.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png

I guess your crypto global bear market has been postponed  

I would not call it postponed. It is still looming in the background, any day now we are there (even though I already believe we have been for a while now). Not sure if you truly understand what it means to be in a bear market but what I'm seeing it's a given already. Not that I like it but it is what it is.

Alts are in a bubble, Bitcoin is not (yet). I have no doubt that alts will go bear sometime in the near future but Bitcoin will still be bull when that happens. The only thing, barring some catastrophic event, that could send Bitcoin bear in the near future would be a chain split.

So, keep hating on Bitcoin and I'll keep watching the price rise.

Now, when all this negative sentiment towards Bitcoin reverses and becomes enthusiasm, then I'll worry.

[skorupi17]

Great observation and analysis here mate. It seems you made a thorough research about this one. History does help us in knowing what the future will be. However, this does not guarantee anything at all. It might be just a coincidence of some sort but who knows, right? This is a good sign for what we might encounter all throughout the year. Thanks for your effort in putting this together.

[wxa7115]

Why I see a global crypto bear market coming:

1. Charting: Daily. The daily 20 SMA that has supported this entire uptrend was broken with yesterday's close. The move towards 3k was riddled with weakness that displayed itself in multiple bearish divergences on the daily RSI.
Weekly. On the weekly timeframe, whlie not yet confirmed, it is likely we will both have the first red candle and the first time closing below the upper Bollinger Band.

2. Altcoin and ICO bubble. When there are $150 million ICOs, there is nothing more to say. Looking at Ethereum, it has pierced its 300 low, an entirely new behaviour in its chart highly suggestive that its bubble has popped. We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

Update: Here is my comparison of 2013 vs 2017.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png

Nice to see some nice analysis, but I think common sense is enough to know this, the market cap increased 10 times in the period of June 2016 to June 2017 and there is not a strong enough reason for this to have happened so the only conclusion is that this is a speculative bubble and like all the bubbles this is going to burst at some point.