Global Crypto Bear Market

[TERA]

Oh no it might fall to 1800 at some point. This is super scary. Global bear market! That means Bitcoin will be falling in EVERY country.

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[Pamadar]

Oh no it might fall to 1800 at some point. This is super scary. Global bear market! That means Bitcoin will be falling in EVERY country.

Wow if that happen a lots of lucky long term holder will take advantage as we all knew good bounce back will happen and for the long term holders those who can hold within 2-3 years will be the winner for sure.

[deisik]

Oh no it might fall to 1800 at some point. This is super scary. Global bear market! That means Bitcoin will be falling in EVERY country.

Wow if that happen a lots of lucky long term holder will take advantage as we all knew good bounce back will happen and for the long term holders those who can hold within 2-3 years will be the winner for sure.

As the saying goes, it works until it doesn't

I've been telling people to move at least some of their wealth to Litecoin since it was lower than 30 dollars per coin (and pack the rest in fiat, preferably in the US dollar). Today Litecoin has jumped to over 50 dollars (seems to be an ATH) and is likely set to continue rising as Bitcoin prices essentially stagnate. Basically, some long-term Bitcoin believers are trying to push Bitcoin prices higher while more rational people use this moment to sell their bitcoins and either stay with dollars (for the time being) or buy litecoins. I promised one dude here to inform him personally when Litecoin's price reaches 100 dollars and it might not take long after all (with 500 dollars per coin being the "fair" price)

[rhyso]

LOL.

I remember lingering around here in 2013...

It was said then, that any coin with less than a $1million marketcap was a crap coin and had no future...

In fact any coin that was not bitcoin was a crapcoin...some said.

Back then to be in the top 10, a coin needed like $5m marketcap.

Now...

Some coins that were worth less than a cent are worth well over a dollar.

To be in the top 100 today you need to have at least $23 Million marketcap and the top ten you need over 600 million...

Show me any stocks with growth like that.

haha some perspective for those thinking a dip from 3k to 2.5 from a surge from 1k is the end of the world... I think BTC was about $80 when I started watching it in 2013. Should have bought 10k worth then.

I bet some serious millionaires will have been made since then...

So much for those crap coins and the global crypto bear market.

[Esphere.in]

Oh no it might fall to 1800 at some point. This is super scary. Global bear market! That means Bitcoin will be falling in EVERY country.

Wow if that happen a lots of lucky long term holder will take advantage as we all knew good bounce back will happen and for the long term holders those who can hold within 2-3 years will be the winner for sure.

For everything to go smooth the scaling have to complete without any further mess and struggle and if that happens then the price will soar to new heights without a doubt,let us wait and watch what the situation will be at the end,until then i will focus my concentration on alt coins.

[GanjaFarmer23]

Weekly close doesn't look so strong for major top now. Some weeks of coiling and a rapid pump and dump would look like a real top. Imagine how shitty the indicators would look then. While i agree with reasons for a bear market, i think not many gets to call the top this easily. Diverging indicators in parabolic markets doesn't mean much, could just be resetting before another run. I have not really seen any strong indication of the euphoric sentiment needed to dump to shit from here and way too many traders flip bearish any chance they get. Coiling action with MACD resetting on daily level is not so bad IMO, which is pretty much what's happening now. Did also break out of short term triangle to the upside, though could still be a cruel fakeout.

I wouldn't bet big on either direction, just hedge down moves and ride the market on spot if it goes up is my strategy

[N12]

The Global Crypto Bear continues.

… and continues.

[Torque]

The Global Crypto Bear continues.

… and continues.

...and it will until it bottoms. We might see a mini rally around August if things go well with SegWit, but unless we can break ~$2700, then we'll see a double top and technical trading resume the downtrend until we bottom.

Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.

[btc4lifer]

The Global Crypto Bear continues.

… and continues.

...and it will until it bottoms. We might see a mini rally around August if things go well with SegWit, but unless we can break ~$2700, then we'll see a double top and technical trading resume the downtrend until we bottom.

Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.

Test of previous multi year ATH should be in order at $1163... 

[N12]

Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.

I don't dare predict bottoms before they happen.

I have made a realization, however. The bear market is likely to continue until at least February 2018 because that's when the 2 MB hard fork is supposed to happen. Currently, the debate is a little subdued because everyone is fine with getting Segwit. It's the path afterward where the civil war will break out for earnest. Until that is resolved, I cannot imagine mid/long term bullish conditions.

[Torque]

Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.

I don't dare predict bottoms before they happen.

I have made a realization, however. The bear market is likely to continue until at least February 2018 because that's when the 2 MB hard fork is supposed to happen. Currently, the debate is a little subdued because everyone is fine with getting Segwit. It's the path afterward where the civil war will break out for earnest. Until that is resolved, I cannot imagine mid/long term bullish conditions.

Yeah, it seems like Bitcoin will perpetually and forever have another "enemy" or "event" on the horizon or around the corner that is attempting to thwart or undermine it. It's never ending.

That being said though, I think that the Bitcoin market will mostly trade on bot-driven technicals and in hindsight this mini bubble will look pretty much exactly like every other one did, with a double top and gradual wane. It'll probably take until mid summer next year before we start to see a final bottom.

Like Satoshi said, "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." Bitcoin and every other mined crypto has tended to prove this out over and over again over the long term.

[N12]

Yeah. Nothing new under the sun.

But admittedly, there is and has always been a tail risk of "failure" for Bitcoin where it could be supplanted. We've seen a scamcoin come close on paper this bubble (with 80% of BTC's cap). I'm faithful we'll manage to upgrade to Segwit, have Lightning Network etc., but I do want to avoid this risk entirely.

This bear market must end with Bitcoin as the clear victor, smashing all the scamcoins. Currently 49% dominance, still more to go.

[Rahar02]

Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.

I don't dare predict bottoms before they happen.

I have made a realization, however. The bear market is likely to continue until at least February 2018 because that's when the 2 MB hard fork is supposed to happen. Currently, the debate is a little subdued because everyone is fine with getting Segwit. It's the path afterward where the civil war will break out for earnest. Until that is resolved, I cannot imagine mid/long term bullish conditions.

It will frighten people, and become a good news for traders as they could keep buy and sell to extract more profits.
I thought bitcoin price will be stable after reach $1800 and won't decrease any further, but I may be wrong.
I expected for bitcoin price recover after August 1^st but uncertain news may influence people to sell, it is a loss to sell bitcoin at the moments. Just make sure you sell if there's no any other option to get cash.

[N12]

Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.

I don't dare predict bottoms before they happen.

I have made a realization, however. The bear market is likely to continue until at least February 2018 because that's when the 2 MB hard fork is supposed to happen. Currently, the debate is a little subdued because everyone is fine with getting Segwit. It's the path afterward where the civil war will break out for earnest. Until that is resolved, I cannot imagine mid/long term bullish conditions.

Isn't the 2 MB HF supposed to be 3 months later SW activation?

They say 6 months in the New York Agreement. Has there been any new info?

[deisik]

Like Satoshi said, "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." Bitcoin and every other mined crypto has tended to prove this out over and over again over the long term.

I guess it works better in reverse

So I could say that "the cost of mining a coin tends to gravitate toward its market price" (you can quote me on this too, ©). Really, the cost of mining is ultimately determined by the price of the coin. For example, if the price rises, we should soon expect the cost of mining to rise as well since more miners will enter the competition being attracted by increased profits. And this competition will eventually reduce profit margins to a minimum, which necessarily means costs coming close to market price. As to me, this inference is more correct

[Torque]

Like Satoshi said, "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." Bitcoin and every other mined crypto has tended to prove this out over and over again over the long term.

I guess it also cuts backwards as well

So I could just as well say that "the cost of any cryptocoin tends to gravitate toward its market price"© (you can quote me on this). Really, the costs of mining are ultimately determined by the mined coin price. For example, if the price rises miners can raise their expenses keeping their profit margin more or less the same. In this way, if the price rises quickly, we should soon expect the costs of mining rise too since more miners will enter the competition. And this competition will necessarily reduce profits margins to a minimum, which means costs coming close to market price. As to me, this inference is more correct

Correct.

But again, only with mined coins. The premined/POS cryptos are fked, they have no mining floor to fall back on that is driven by supply/demand economics.

[N12]

Want to care a guess at a support bottom for this year? My educated guess is ~$1800 trading bottom, with a possible quick spike down to the ~$1500 range or so.

I don't dare predict bottoms before they happen.

I have made a realization, however. The bear market is likely to continue until at least February 2018 because that's when the 2 MB hard fork is supposed to happen. Currently, the debate is a little subdued because everyone is fine with getting Segwit. It's the path afterward where the civil war will break out for earnest. Until that is resolved, I cannot imagine mid/long term bullish conditions.

Isn't the 2 MB HF supposed to be 3 months later SW activation?

They say 6 months in the New York Agreement. Has there been any new info?

Garzik is twitting this:
https://twitter.com/jgarzik/status/886602276814471168

Interesting. Don't know why they changed it, but if so, I'll have to revise it to November 2017.

[deisik]

Like Satoshi said, "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." Bitcoin and every other mined crypto has tended to prove this out over and over again over the long term.

I guess it also cuts backwards as well

So I could just as well say that "the cost of any cryptocoin tends to gravitate toward its market price"© (you can quote me on this). Really, the costs of mining are ultimately determined by the mined coin price. For example, if the price rises miners can raise their expenses keeping their profit margin more or less the same. In this way, if the price rises quickly, we should soon expect the costs of mining rise too since more miners will enter the competition. And this competition will necessarily reduce profits margins to a minimum, which means costs coming close to market price. As to me, this inference is more correct

Correct.

But again, only with mined coins. The premined/POS cryptos are fked, they have no mining floor to fall back on that is driven by supply/demand economics

In fact, this is basic economics

But you seem to be missing something here. Premined coins are already mined so they are out of the equation completely. What I say here refers only to coins that are currently being mined. In this way, the coins that have been mined in the past (premined coins included) are not part of the picture altogether. It is today's cost of mining that eventually moves closer and closer to today's price. Costs that have been made in the past can even be higher than the current price but they are not considered

[d5000]

Well, the price development of the last days support again my theory that the Bitcoin market is waiting for fundamental signals. When a bit of uncertainty was inserted in the market because of the Btc1 delay, the price went down below $2000 - and now that Btc1 is being deployed and first BIP91 blocks are mined, it jumped already $300 to the upside. (Big party for traders ...)

Most altcoins, for now, follow the upmove. But they won't reach their previous highs - it's only a bounce - while Bitcoin probably will if everything plays out well with Segwit. As I expected. LTC price is increasing slower than most other coins' price - because LTC has only a chance to keep its value if Segwit in BTC fails.

[deisik]

Most altcoins, for now, follow the upmove. But they won't reach their previous highs - it's only a bounce - while Bitcoin probably will if everything plays out well with Segwit. As I expected. LTC price is increasing slower than most other coins' price - because LTC has only a chance to keep its value if Segwit in BTC fails.

Is it really so?

I didn't check other coins since I'm not very interested in them (so bear with me). Nevertheless, even if it is, you shouldn't forget that Litecoin went down a lot slower than Bitcoin and I guess a lot slower than the rest of the pack. In this way, it had been in fact rising in Bitcoin terms, so we could now very well expect it to go down (again, in Bitcoin terms) when Bitcoin rebounds. Personally, though, I think that Litecoin will continue to rise in the long run whether SegWit is activated in Bitcoin or not. The damage is done anyway