Bitcoin Forum

And if so, how much?

I'm worried about this: https://bitcoin.org/en/posts/denounce-segwit2x

If people start trading B2X masked as true BTC, the true BTC they are buying will go to whom?

And if there is no replay protection, would the addresses be the same or not? If not, the transaction would not happen in the other chain, but since there's no replay protection, they will be using the same addresses, and so money will be traded in the other chain too. Will this cause issues with other addresses not involved in the trade?

And if B2X already have a future market (like what happened with BCH), will it cause a price drop in the real BTC?

How much will be safe to send and receive BTC in the main chain?

I don't think so. Maybe a few exchanges start trading a B2X IOU token in the future, just like what happened with Bitcoin Cash in the ViaBTC exchange.

Addresses will probably be the same if they just make a plain clone of Bitcoin. For example, Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash are sharing the same addresses and the same private keys.

The problem is that without replay protection you may end up spending coins in one chain and your transaction getting broadcasted at the same time in the other chain. So, if you want to send 0.5 BTC to someone, you may end up sending 0.5 BTC and 0.5 B2X to the desired address;

Bitcoin price didn't drop because of BCH taking a part of the market. So if Bitcoin keeps being the "main chain", the price will get getting higher.

We will know when the fork time arrives.

This will create a lot of confusion,and this is bad for the market,it doesn`t matter if it`s B2X or BTC.
Replay protection is a must and nobody would want to send and receive coins without it.
I`m sure that the real btc value will continue to increase,because the real btc supporters are a majority.   

so far it seems like the only effect b2x future market had was an increase in bitcoin price or maybe it is just a coincidence because nobody takes "future markets" seriously. and bitcoin price is currently above $4500! for the first time after a long while of big drop followed by a slow rise.

the closer we get there may be some fluctuations which can go either way but i say because we already had a very big drop down to 3k range it is not possible to see any big drop in bitcoin price because all the weak hands are already out and have not yet came back.

I think B2X has yet to be priced in. That, or the expectation of a price increase once the hardfork drama is done with is balancing out the uncertainty of the possible B2X fork.

Ironically though it looks like B2X already took a huge bite off BCH.



What worries me is that the volume has been rather low lately so it doesn't look like the market is all that confident right now.

We're still like 40 days out from the fork. Nobody is too worried yet. There is plenty of time for calmer heads to prevail, for CEOs to swallow their pride and back out of the NYA, and for miners to respect Bitcoin's consensus. My feeling is that many people think a fork won't happen.

But if it's November and nothing has changed -- 90% or more miners signalling the NYA, and no services backing out of the agreement -- then I think the market may start pricing in the split.


That makes perfect sense to me. Bitcoin Cash and B2X are basically splitting up the big blocker camp. In that sense, it's good for Core and status quo. Legacy BTC holders are also in a position of advantage from a market perspective: they get coins on all the forks. When BTC gets hard forked, BCH holders get nothing. After Segwit2x, when BTC gets hard forked again, B2X holders get nothing, etc.

yeah, that is what i am also afraid of, that the miners continue supporting the 2 MB hardfork. it is bigger than 90% and things will become a big headache.
note that nobody is exactly "signalling" now though. it is just a couple of characters they put in their blocks

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how about the fact that price has been going up?
anyone wants to comment on that? are people buying bitcoin to get more coins out of the following forks (gold and 2x)?

Pretty much my line of thinking as well.

I wonder what happens to BCH in case the B2X fork goes through and survives. A couple weeks ago "the other subreddit" was heavily populated by anti-SegWit hardliners, but now with B2X looming that sentiment seems to have changed.



I think the recent price increase is mostly due to the China drama confirming USD 3k,- as a strong bottom, despite CNY valuations being even lower than that.

I don't think the full reality of the fork is priced in at all.

I think what we are seeing is pure FOMO where people are buying bitcoin purely to get their free segwit2z coins. Because the BCH fork went fine, they're treatin this as just another airdrop that they don't want to miss out on - even though this fork is very different, one chain aims to kill the other chain.

This is my fear. People are thinking it is like BCH, but at that time, there was replay protection, the addresses had different structure.

Now there's no replay protection, its the same addresses, hence its the same coin but on different chains. People will dump B2X in exchanges which support both coins and their BTC will de dumped altogether. Also coinbase will list it as BTC, and people will be buying B2X thinking its BTC.

Those who are not going to dump it will not lose their coins, but the price will be affected, as the massive dump of thousands of users will create a bear market and miners will lose money with it, as the difficulty will still be the same because theres no replay protection. Maybe the price will be even less than the costs for mining, which would affect China as well. Everbody will be affected, including the B2X guys, as their coin will be priced very low in relation to mining costs, turning their network slow.

Also there will be no lightning network, unless theres a complete change of POW where mining is turned irrelevant. B2X is a open attack on the network.

Exchanges should NOT list B2X as a separate coin until it have mandatory replay protection, as it happened with BCH.

Initially most exchanges said they wouldn't touch anything without replay protection - but now Coinbase have announced they will be supporting both chains - though they haven't said exly HOW.

The whole thing is a great big mess.

So if they don't list it as a separate coin, what is the alternative? these scammers want to destroy the legacy chain. It must be measured in the market that B2X is refused and dumped into oblivion to crush the hopes of the forkers. Let's solve it in the market instead of the current nonsense of the hardforking corporations implying that everyone using Coinbase supports it. Let the market decide, otherwise Coinbase and co should be ready to face some serious lawsuits.

Without replay protection, it's too much of a risk for the exchanges - people could be sending teh same coin to them over and over and they'd go bankrupt. I wouldn't take the risk if I was their shoes.

The only solution from the exchange's point of view is to suspend all trading on bitcoin over the fork, and then let the miners battle it out, and the list the chain with the most support.

IF however segwit2x concedes on the replay protection, them both chains can be listed. But there is no sign of that happening.

If that is the case, then some people can use Bitcoin Cash to do the transaction. That has replay protection.

Its been priced in but there will be some rise in price all the way up to middle of November. Its a good chance to buy at below $5000 currently and dump it at $6000.

The 4k pricing is consolidating now.

Looks like the segwit2x people have caved and are now adding replay protection:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7597ji/did_s2x_really_just_hardfork_out_their_replay/

see also

https://github.com/btc1/bitcoin/commit/a3c41256984bf11d95a560ae89c0fcbadfbe73dc#commitcomment-24828658

This makes it more likely that both chains will be listed on all the exchanges.

You just posted a link to a reddit thread that links to a commit where they reverted their "replay protection" which is opt-in. Which means that you last line is contradicting with the rest of your post.

They don't have any replay protection, which makes it harder to get B2X included on exchanges.

What exchanges support b2x ?

So far only Bitfinex is supporting B2X futures trade, at least from what I'm aware of. Not sure if others will follow that path, especially since BCH futures trading was also only offered by a handful of exchanges.

Apart from that, it's probably still too early to tell. While most exchanges promised to support noteworthy forks, many also stated that they would only support forks that also include a proper replay protection.

So who knows. Maybe B2X still adds proper replay protection. Maybe exchanges find a way to securely handle both chains. Maybe B2X will get listed on only a handful of exchanges due to lack of replay protection. The latter would be a major throwback to B2X's claim to legitimacy, however.

Thank you for your answer, im a little lost with b2x

For my opinion yes its priced in but we have too many issues which not priced yet.
Trump-Korea-Europe etc. these are not priced in and we will see a big rise while we have these problems

Hi

B2X is already trading on HitBTC and not only.

Please see the video for more details:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vF7heYZWVO8

Regards, Marcin

My guess is that B2X is not fully priced in yet...actually, maybe not much at all, given how few seem to be sure about what's going to happen.  In order to price something in, the market participants need to have enough conviction about the outcome to trade what they believe will happen ahead of time (even if they're wrong).  Most people seem very uncertain, very confused, or both.  While I'm slowly working to clear up my confusion, I continue to be uncertain about what's going to happen.

Yes, i saw this and the actual price of bitcoin segwitx2 is listed at $1000 each one, on the future's market.
But i am a little bit worried about what you have wrote in there, you are right about everything, but i dont think that it is available to sell and buy (the real coins, right, not the futures)
We only have to wait, there is nothing we can do, but i am sure that i will receive those free coins, this is probably what most of us wants.

There's already a few exchanges starting to trade B2X.

If we look at the previous few major forks(BCC, BTG, etc.), then when they happened bitcoin actually didn't move much at all. For BTG it was a small fall in price that was later recovered pretty soon. For BCC it actually rose.

It'll depend on the exact market conditions going into the fork.

Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold -- neither are good precedents here. The reason BTC rallied in late July/August was because of BIP91 and resolution of the BIP148 chain split threat. BCH was just a sideshow altcoin. BTG is even more of a sideshow... it hasn't even launched and people are increasingly not taking it seriously at all. BCH has replay protection and BTG is supposed to.

That's quite a bit different than B2X, which has no replay protection and is backed by much more of the ecosystem. There could be a very messy split, and I'm not sure that the futures market is totally pricing in all the possibilities right now.

Agreed--this is going to be a much bigger deal.  I'm not sure that the futures market is going to be a good indicator here.  Unless it starts to become fairly clear who's going to go which way when we get closer to the fork, pricing is going to be pure speculation.  B2X futures volatility may make bitcoin's price action look calm by the time everything settles.

Not really. Price of futures and the actual exchange rates will never be able to match correctly, which shouldn't be anything surprising. I am quite sure that the actual price of the split tokens will be higher than what you see on the future markets. Don't forget that BCH initially crossed the 0.4 BTC level, tanked badly to below 0.10 BTC, and then went back up to +0.20 BTC. SegWit2x by a great distance is a far more important fork, where I expect it to have a much higher value, at least in the early period. For that reason I believe that in the last week before the fork people will hoard Bitcoin. So no, I don't believe SegWit2x is already priced in.

A lot of people are saying that segwitx2 is not going to have a replay action, and per every bitcoin you send, you are going to send a b2x coin, so there are no free coins at all since you are going to have them masked on your wallet. They are a garbage, i always knew that their developers were greedy as fuck, and i was not wrong with that prediction because the whole community knows that at the moment.
it is probably one of the worst forks that have ever existed.

I was doing some research on replay protection last night, and my understanding of it is that without replay protection, it's possible, but not guaranteed, that sending coins on one branch of the fork will cause them to be sent on the other.  Replay protection just guarantees that that can't happen.  I also read that there are ways around this so that if you are careful and know what you're doing, you can ensure that a transaction on one chain won't show up on the other.  However, I don't yet understand what needs to be done.  I suggest doing your own research to understand all of this better.

For sure,a big confusion is awaiting for the bitcoin community this month when segwit 2x will be activated.
Definitely,new investors would get totally confused about which would be the true bitcoin.
It would affect the reputation of bitcoin.
The aspect which is worrying is that segwit 2x has almost 85% of hash rate.
If segwit 2x does not get majority of support,then bitcoin price would skyrocket.
But if segwit 2x gets major support and replaces legacy bitcoin,then bitcoin may start slowly losing the trust which it has gained over the past eight years.

New investors definitely stand a good chance of getting confused, but even veterans may have some issues.  It's taken me some time to get a handle on all the aspects of the fork and the politics behind it.

This, I think, will depend on which fork "wins."  If BTC continues to dominate, it will likely get even stronger as this ordeal will instill confidence in its resiliency.  If B2X wins, it may severely damage the reputation of bitcoin as such an event will be seen by many as a hostile takeover/coup.

While many miners and merchants have indicated support, such support may evaporate quickly if the rest of the community doesn't follow.

There is still time left and I do not think the segwit2x fork is completely priced in already, since there may be more news that may affect whether the fork is going to happen at all.

Oh yes.  From what I've read, it sounds like there's still a lot of uncertainty.  There appears to be a contingent of veteran bitcoiners who seem to be sure that segwit2x doesn't stand a chance.  They make some good points, and I hope they're right.  While I want faster transactions and lower fees, I think the best thing for bitcoin would be for segwit2x to die a very quick death (or at least show that it's not going to replace BTC).  Market price will probably determine everything.  And while B2X futures spiked to around 1/3 of a bitcoin a few days ago, they've steadily declined back to around 1/5 since then.  As long as the price of B2X doesn't support many miners, it won't take hold.