Bitcoin Forum

http://i.minus.com/jBwvKDQcUJ3Q5.jpg
Both 9 month range peak aligned

That is a good news, it means 2015 it will touch 2000

Where are the true speculators? We have a highly volatile, almost predictable market here.

price will stay over 100 dollars for sure.

price will stay over 10,000 dollars for sure. (time frame 3 1/2 year)

Bubbles, bubbles never change.

Wow, those two fit nicely!

What's interesting is that June 2013 is unlike Aug 2011 and there aren't many this time who are calling Bitcoin a failed experiment / dead.  :-)   [Edited: to put in dates]

People didn't start calling Bitcoin dead until Oct./Nov. Sentiment extreme occurs only near the bottom.

It looks to me more like a repeat of the Aug. 2012 mini-crash.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zig6-hourzczsg2012-07-15zeg2012-09-02ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Oops, I meant this date range:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2012-05-10zeg2012-11-09ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

iirc Bitcoin prices weren't negative before May 2013. If they were negative I would have snapped them indefinitely and stored the associated fiat in a warehouse :P

Its a simple patten overlay and the 2013 price is not shown only the flow pattern. Current price isn't 12 either. Very elementary and simple to understand, but i guess still to technical for some.

I'm seeing a lot of comparison of our current situation to both 2011 and the August 2012 fiasco that was due mostly to PirateAt40's scam ...

The 2011 situation was caused by all-out massacre consisting mostly of rampant hacks and horrid press:  Blood flowed through the streets.

August 2012 was not so bloody at all, and I think there is not much blood here either.

So, question is (mostly for bears -- always needing the answer to that "Why?"):
Who's behind the "scam" this time :-D ?

The posting of a picture of a fake (and inaccurately dated) Gox email by notorious BTC-e user "fontas" is an interesting theory...

The end of October 2012, at the end of your chart there, was the last time before yesterday that we went below the 100 day SMA. Just an important point in market psychology. Here it is from then until now:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=2-hour&c=1&s=2012-10-24&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=SMA&m1=1200&a2=SMA&m2=&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

That's the problem.  There is no valid technical explanation for this plot.  It is an arbitrary alignment of two different data series.  What's the reason you didn't align the beginning of the run up?  Let me guess, you tried that but it didn't support your point well enough.

No it's not too technical. I was trying to tell you this is complete bullshit in a less direct, more subtle manner.

http://i.minus.com/jtGwYFeLq3nIt.jpg
Aligned with beginning of run-up, not peak

Does not even mean that it will ever be possible to be > 300 usd.

So the price will run up to 120 then crash. Got it. Buy now and sell later :P

BITCOIN IS DEAD !!!

Can we rally now ?

And it appears the current chart is still in an uptrend, supported by the 100ema (or sma).

Weird, I was sure we dipped below the 100 ema.

Edit:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=120&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=EMA&m1=100&a2=&m2=21&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

http://i.minus.com/jgq9fuJec3StX.jpg
Bitcoincharts, 9 month Daily closing price did not go below 100 since may 3

great job on the chart

I doubt it ever lived.

Indeed. No "Bitcoin is a ponzi and Nakamato is its very own Maddoff" posts, no more "Bitcoin is dead" shouting on the news, etc.

This time everybody knows that the bubble is popped and the hype cycle is over, it must deflate all the way down, but at the same time everybody is waiting for the best entry point to face the next sustainable growth trend that will precede the 3rd Bitcoin bubble. That's pretty much the sentiment. Not only here, but also among my friends in the "real" world, all of them are really interested in BTC and willing to buy, they are just waiting for the bubble to be "over".

What's kinda puzzling to me is that most members on the speculation subforum, or generally speaking the traders I know have already sold, everybody is waiting for "cheap coins". So... Apart from ASICminer and AVALON, the new bitcoin-superpowers from China, who has coins to sell ATM? Yeah, most of us hardcore bitcoiners have always a stash on a paper wallet, but I mean "trading funds".... My impression is that everybody is holding fiat ATM.

Funny, I don't get that impression at all. If this wedge breaks, I think we'll see plenty of selling pressure. I don't think the "cheap coins" forum crowd is indicative of the broad market -- I don't know why this is thrown around so often.

Good lord...

Go visit other subforums or reddit for a change.

Hero members who got bitten hard in 2011 really aren't the norm.

And even then, many of them remain unconditionally bullish.

Yeah, you may be right. I guess I'm getting that impression reading comments of regulars in the wall observer thread, plus speaking with my educated friends, who at the end of the day are pretty much influenced by me. Never go through reddit, it always felt pretty useless.

Let's see how this rally on low volume unfolds. ;)

Meh, bottoms of candles bounced off it.  Looks like support from where I sit.

Exactly, but the thing to worry about is the 100ema starting to flatline. I don't like that. I don't like the low volume. I don't like the variety of opinions regarding the price.  ;D  LOL
Really, like Rampion said it has gotten bearish on the wall thread. And I can see what others have said in that people are waiting to buy in at "better prices". A lot of those people
are just guys on the street (some that I talk to that want in, but not at this price.)

The scary thing that all bears and bulls know is it just takes one big trader to get things going. I think it is a lot easier to manipulate the price down as there are guys with tons of shares,
but you never know when support comes in. We don't know what is on the sides and NOT in the order book that is just sitting and waiting for cheaper coins (not cheap coins). I mean is
it crazy to think that VC's who are investing millions into Bitcoin are also giving it some support? This supports their investment in a way. A bit analogous to how a company hires developers
to support the infrastructure of an open source piece of software (e.g. bitcoin, linux, etc.) by hiring developers to just build up the infrastructure (outside the company's products.)

VC's invested in services around Bitcoin. The price really doesn't matter to them.

Why not?

There must be some link to price though. I wonder if a lower price would hasten acceptance.
And if they see Bitcoin as all that (and they have said as much), I would think they are also buying (personally and perhaps as a corporate investment).

I know I'm the newB here, but I think price matters to VC.
For one more liquidity in the market makes for more possible gains.
And stability increases market sentiment. Which in turn allows for a higher chance of their services becoming successful. 

Yes, but they are more concerned with long term liquidity and stability than in short term speculative gains.

totally agree with you. but long term stability starts short term.
At this point in time we are at a turningpoint.
It's either longterm bear market or continue bullish (pre bubble + growth).
so they might prefer business as usual.

Longterm bear market would give them time to deploy all the capital they have just received into human resources and code.  They aren't ready for the next hype cycle yet.

Wow those crossovers match up with difficulty quite accurately. Unfortunately the chart is out of date and dateless but showmen for general effect.
I think it is all manipulated to design, I predict we'll see some stable pricing when the difficulty stabilises. 
http://www.jdidesign.com/files-in/Untitled-1.jpg

http://i.minus.com/j6XG6RkV9ecc2.jpg
Latest update on progress
The 100 roughly lines up with 15 and 200 with 30 gives it a 6.66 to 1 ratio

It's been said but i'll say it again. Excellent job on these charts

this

Striking similarity.

I wonder if this time is different?

we're in a superbubble. (not a regular bubble.)

In what way is it different from a regular bubble?  Do you mean that we are still in a long-term bull-market?

Yes.  This is a heretofore unprecedented commodity -- itself representing the invention of a whole new class of commodity -- why would anyone expect it to behave like any other existing financial instrument?

Agreed that it is a new commodity, I also think we are in a LT bull.
Behaving like any other existing financial instrument --> because of human nature, and its way of doing price discovery.

all bubbles/pump&dump look alike

Because Bitcoin is different, but human action isn't?

We were making higher lows.

Now it's getting very close though...

In Price, I see no bubble , look at the log-chart
When it comes to the volume,  I would say its a bubble, so what ? :)

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=2920&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=1&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

Would you call 2011 a bubble?
PS: your volume isn't charted log scale.

Yes, because we were at an early stage and fundamentals were not as good as today, there are much better (1000%) than 2011. I call a bubble when the price is unrealistic atm and for mid-term, because of thin good fundamentals and lots of rumors. Only my opion.

Bubbles always pop the same.  ;)

I think this could be the reason.

It will continue to deflate until people think it's bottomed out.

$100 is not a good price.

$20 would be a good price based on the $15 price in January - anything after mid January and a good chunk before it is pure speculation.

https://i.imgur.com/2W220Ln.png

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bw9CALKOvAI

From the time line, two price spike matches perfectly with QE2 (November 2010 - June 2011) and QE3 (September 2012 - now), so when QE3 ends, it will be the time for bitcoin exchange rate to sink again. Historically, bubble always popped when central bank start to tighten the money supply, but this time the housing bubble has kidnaped the whole economy, they have to keep printing money to keep it alive, let's see what FED is going to say tonight

But just like theory of relativity, if you regard bitcoin as a base unit of value, then it means when central bank start to print more money, the USD's value dropped, at mean time, the value of all the goods/services that is valued by USD also dropped, since their exchange rate are all pegged to USD for some strange reason (consensus?)

to me it looks like november 2010

November 2010, yep those where the golden times a Bitcoin costs less than 2 cents. The purchase of a singe pizza doubling the price and Satoshi personally still active on this site.  Would't it sometime be nice to turn back time.

http://i.minus.com/jqml7CVBGANgU.jpg

wow I wish I was around then...

Assuming a burst...at what price point is a far call to delve in?

Predicted low point?

50$ will be the lowest low. BTC struggeled to get passed that for a while. I really think we will never break 50$ again (unless a coordinated attack  on bitcoin exchanges by our governments happens or something )

Quick update on proceedings

http://i.minus.com/jVwIf9JktPnbw.jpg

Will it break out of trend? The only way it can break out if you buy.

Completely randomly drawn channel, I can draw one that's sideways or upwards the same way. Meaningless imo.

I think that, in your picture are still lower highs, but we have in 2013 a still higher lows too.

But lower highs and higher lows always ends breakout.

Sometimes I'll either be higher high (above 136) or lower lows (below 88), or both...   ;)

http://i.minus.com/jVwIf9JktPnbw.jpg

A parabolic move is totally normal in finance! When it's over, just like all the other parabolic moves in financial history, it will jusst plateau and then keep going up!!! Bears are stuuupid trolls who don't know anything!11

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/parabolic-collapses-aug08_image009.gif

(Seriously, it was fun calling the top on this last bitcoin bubble within 3 days of the peak, but the backlash was huge...)

Since OP keeps posting updates to his forced (and largely uninformative) comparison graph, I won't feel all that bad re-submitting a post of my own here (posted yesterday on the wall thread):

@ oda.krell

Maybe OP can update the pesky little graph because its backed up by actual data. If it breaks out of the trendline by a long way then I can assure you an update is pointless, as it no more would look like a 2011 repeat.
The best action to break this trend is to buy. If you dont buy this cheap coins now you maybe regret it in the future.
If you are of the opinion that a few hundred unique visitors to this tread will somehow change the outcome of the millions of trades done since the start of this tread you a totally mistaken. This site is not your surrogate mother who tells you what to do.
Bitcoin itself does not care how much money u have to pay for one bitcoin. It functions just as well, which ever price u are willing to pay. Satoshi himself probably would prefer a lower price as more users would buy them and so it spreads faster. Unfortunately it seems his philosophy has been misused by users who seek personal gain. In case the price does not go the way u want it to go can u please promise not to cry. 

I bet my house on this statement :D

This is not your typical finance though; this is really and truly revolution, on a bigger scale than has ever been comprehended.

The dot-com bubble crashed and was based on Internet. If the whole Internet wasn't strong enough to prevent any bubble crash, how something smaller like Bitcoin is supposed to do that?!?!

I'm a short term to mid term bear with BTC, but definitely a long term Bull.
I can see us exploding up however as we are talking about something that has ruled the world since the times of Kings and Queens - MONEY. We are now talking about a decentralized money that is secure. I can imagine considering the state of the world that anything is possible short term. Currencies are being devalued, wars are likely to start (I prey not though), etc. The uncertainty, the manipulation of the gold/silver price, the beauty that is BTC, etc. - is going to probably attract an avalanche of sellers.
For comparisons sake, we are in the early early stages of the internet. We are just waiting for our killer app so to speak. Even without it, we are so small and the internet was so large (IPO companies), so what is the choice regarding alternative Money? There really isn't any outside of BTC and the other cryptocurrencies.

You got point.

"looks more and more like a 2011  2010 - 2013 repeat"






imagine to have invested 20 k $ at that price. 30 months ago.

http://us.cdn4.123rf.com/168nwm/maxxyustas/maxxyustas1009/maxxyustas100900194/7826806-reichtum-hintergrund-von-packs-euro-3d.jpg




imagine to have invested 20 k $ at todays price. and wait 30 months.


http://gbcode.de/data/media/7/vielgeld.jpg


that must be around january 2016

Of course if only it were that easy to predict the future........

The crash of 2011 did feed into the bubble of 2013. Bitcoin isn't going anywhere- not with the number of privately held ASIC's out there that are good for nothing else in the world but bitcoin.

all i read in this thread is

"i want to believe the price will plummet so I can buy cheap"....lolz

Well, it's because the price is doing a great job at going down ;D

A quick progress update. Between peaks is 671 days

https://i.minus.com/jbiOyP7NKYhCfH.jpg

A poor analysis. You could easily draw two horizontal lines between at 100 and 140 based on the data shown. There is very significant resistance at the 100 level. It will not fall so easily.

I agree ;D This chart is not objective AT ALL
You can't compare 2 charts with different starting points. Always use a same basis.

http://img11.hostingpics.net/pics/908342startingpoint.jpg

I redraw the chart with the same starting point.
http://img11.hostingpics.net/pics/78241320112013.jpg

@ marvinrouge

As u are hopefully aware the stable lead-up price in 2013 was ~ $13, in 2011 it was ~ £1.
If you do like to a run-up aligned chart please look at post #18, if u prefer peak aligned its the very first post

manfred thnaks for your answer
I saw your chart "run-up aligned" on post 18, I'm sorry but the chart is still not valid because the zero line of the 2 charts are not aligned.

I don't invented chart or statistics, I'm just telling you the way all people do when they need to compare 2 charts : align the zero line and align the start of the lines.


On the chart above the 2 lines begin on the same graphic point, but of course not on the same prices (must be somthing like ~$15 for 2013 and ~$0.75 for 2011).. I assume my own chart isn't very precise too  ;D

Maybe DIY? ;)

http://img11.hostingpics.net/pics/78241320112013.jpg   ;)

How does the dot-com bubble relate to the price of bitcoin? Bitcoin is not a dot-com startup.

Well, the dot-com was a bubble and Bitcoin is also a bubble. If the dot-com, an economic ecosystem that based its potential on the Internet(which is the biggest revolution of mankind until now) was not able to sustain a bubble, I don't see how Bitcoin can sustain any bubbles either, whatever the potential of Bitcoin could be.

"Because it's Bitcoin" is not a good reason enough to change basic economics rules.

I have often debated about this, I came to the conclusion that the bubble isn't necessary a bad thing. As an investor, that could be a key piece on how you decide to trade. Bubbles has repeated itself in history countless time, that is why it is wildly studied.

"Because it's a bubble" isn't much of an argument either...

Bubbles are not wrong or right, they are just bubbles. Like you say, they can help you to trade. My problem is with the crap of "this time it's different, it's going to change the fundamentals of economics, it's not your typical finances, it's magic!".


I'm not the one arguing against economic phenomenons that are well documented in history.

Even though Bitcoin uses the Internet, it is not fundamentally the stuff of the Internet; fundamentally, it is sound money -- and this is the major difference which renders the comparison moot.  It's like saying mobile phone adoption is a bubble and the same will happen to it that happened to home phones.

You forgot about the difficulty, it is growing. What's the difference, reduction of reward twice (50 => 25) or with growth 25gh to 150gh? ::) ::)

This point only applies if you ignore how a bubble is generally defined. We are past the point of being able to retrospectively identify the 2013 bubble as such. Perhaps you call a parabolic rise and fall something else, but maybe you could explain why it wasn't a bubble, since it is clear to so many that it was.

Your personal view of "sound money" has no effect on the real world. You're just fantasizing.

I think we might be talking past each other (probably because I didn't sufficiently read the initial post to which Brunic was responding).  In my book, 2013 was a bubble the same way 2011 was a bubble, but bitcoin will over the term of a few years still do well, and will not only be able to sustain these values, but add to them (though in the short run my guess is it will go down some more).  I though Brunic meant with the 'cant sustain a bubble' that the current values were much higher than bitcoin is worth, but perhaps we are only quibbling over timelines here.

Likely. I'm not saying that the bubble top is not sustainable long term.

There is a difference between adoption of a tool and its price. The price of Bitcoin is only one of its characteristics and is not more or less important than the security, the ease-of-use, the utility or the development of it.

Adoption means accepting the whole package of Bitcoin, with ALL its characteristics. It's possible for any characteristics to not be valued correctly in a certain period of time, and I think that it is the case with the price right now.

You could define a bubble as a parabolic rise and fall afterwards, and according to that definition we've definitely seen a bubble recently in bitcoin. However, this definition does not say how deep the fall should be, so it doesnt work as an argument to back up one's belief that the current price is still not sustainable and the price has to fall some more. You can make a somewhat educated guess, but that's all it is and it's definitely not guaranteed to come true.

Perhaps someone should start a sweepstake for the date of the next bubble to pop  ;D

I think the main stream of selling bitcoins are those miners, since the mining rig now is so high priced, the price of bitcoin will not be too low, maybe 100 dollars is proper.

Or else those miner will cry

Miners will cry very very soon, as they have always been crying. More hash rate is added to the network until mining is only marginally profitable, and the guys paying expensive electricity have no other choice than turning off their rigs, which happened at the end of 2011 and in 2012, and is happening now to all those that have no asic.

We just had a very short time window in which mining with an asic was wildly profitable: that window is closing right now.

Yes. People don't understand that that is the normal state of things. The miners should never be excessively profitable for longer periods of time, it's already distorted enough because of the delivery shortage of ASICs. The job of miners is to supply the market with most of the 3600 BTC daily and pocket a small profit, not to hold 80% and become speculators.

I highly doubt that.

Look at Google Trends:
http://www.bilder-hochladen.net/files/k9l5-29-d1fe.png

In spring of 2013 Bitcoin was everywhere in the Mainstream Media (e.g. because of the Euro crisis). What do you think comes next? The Intergalactic Media?


It seems like people are losing interest in Bitcoin. You can also see this in the trade volume on the exchanges:
http://www.bilder-hochladen.net/files/big/k9l5-2a-f033.png


This, and the big an small scandals & scams around Bitcoin (exchanges down (Vircurex, Cryptsy, Bter, btc-e), MtGox stopped USD withdrawals, aurumxchange closed, banks (Citi & Chase) no longer processing Bitcoin related transactions, shady ASIC companies (mining with customer hardware), etc.) will slowly kill Bitcoin.

I am expecting BTC's price to come down, perhaps largely so. But I think it is a huge jump to say "slowly kill Bitcoin". Yes, the banking system (corrupt one) wants it gone as they make wars, control people via usery, etc. with their system. But as things get more decentralized we should slowly come out on top. But it will be violent (in a volatile way...)

You forget that apart from media exposure there is a fundamental factor that need to improve for wider adoption: infrastructure. It's true that a massive % of the world population was exposed to Bitcoin recently, but 99% of them didn't have a clue about how to quickly enter the market. Buying your first bitcoins is an adventure, first you have to understand how Bitcoin works, then you start throwing a little money to it to understand how to handle the coins, and when you finally decide to invest significant money in it months has already passed. The fact is that there are only a few, very shitty exchanges, with obscure validation policies. The infrastructure is shaky, Bitcoin exchanges has a very poor history in terms of reliability, the % of them that just vanishes is astoundingly high.

While its obvious that we recently had a massive hype cycle, the infrastructure is not good enough for massive, quick adoption. If the infrastructure improves, with less media exposure you will have bigger players (=more money) entering the market, and that's crucial to reach further heights.

TL;DR -> there's still a huge margin for growth, regardless of what google trends say.

google searches are not that important. What we need to check is the number of activity in the community.
Therefore, I created this chart:

http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/2201/lk9h.png

We see a strong correlation between the activity on bitcointalk and the price of bitcoin.
The number mem new nembers and posts is very important. And we see that they are still high compared to 'pre bubble' period.

logarithmic version:
http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/2676/5vw5.png

Nice chart, but can you explain WHY google searches are "not that important", and WHY what we need to check is the activity in this community?

google measures the hype; bitcointalk stats measures community activity.

Exactly. And this means the hype is gone.

It will take years before Bitcoin will see 200$ again. If at all.

Decentralized? With all the ASICS the network is getting more and more centralized.

ASICMiner alone currently holds 24% of the network hashing power!

For the idea of Bitcoin it would have been best if only CPU mining would be possible. No GPUs. No ASICs.

Google Trends is not bad at all. You need to compare it to last year, not only april.

"bitcoin"

http://i39.tinypic.com/2uygnqx.png


"buy bitcoins"

http://i39.tinypic.com/k3rtib.png

*sigh*

Forgetting that Google Trends is a lagging indicator, and trying to predict future price movements from it?

YOU SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF YOURSELVES. ;D

Dear idiots, google trends declining means fewer people searched for it in the immediate past. If google trends increases, it means more people searched for it in the immediate past. But you cannot predict future movement based on this lagging indicator. Proof: Look at the google trends chart at points D, E, and F. "Exactly. And this means the hype is gone," right? Bullshit. The level of stupidity here is astounding. Go back to drawing colorful lines on 4-hour price charts to predict mysteriously elusive massive crashes to $30. Or implying that government regulation would have a negative effect on Bitcoin price. Despite, you know, numerous regulatory "hits" having little to no effect aside from improving arbitrage opportunities. But, stay away from Google Trends if you think you can look at "A" and then predict "A-1" and "A-2." Google Trends is useful for a lot of things but future price prediction is not one of them.

It takes time for ASICs to distribute among the population. They're brand new and have only just started shipping and mining, at the end of this year ASICs will have replaced all GPU hashing power and it's business as usual only with a couple hundred TH/s more power into the bitcoin network. :)

Dear BitcoinAshley idiot, I don't want to predict the future of Google trends based on Google trends - I want to predict the future of Bitcoin based Google trends. Comprende?

So it's basically a step backwards (more centralization for the next future).

A Bitcoin minded at difficulty 100,000,000 is not better than one Bitcoin mined at difficulty 10 ;)

No it's not a step backwards. Whether you invest in CPU, GPU or ASIC for mining doesn't really make a difference. And more hashing power is actually better for the network as a whole.

If google search trend is a leading or lagging does not matter but for the first time in Bitcoins history the bitcoin price is diverting from the google search trend.

More important aspect is the existing bitcoin community. The number of new users on bitcointalk is pointing south. The number of new treads is pointing south, as is the number of posts. Only the page views are all over the place.

Seriously, the 51% attack thing is not on the top of the list of worries. And, it is a very abstract way of saying centralization, especially considering that
those pools are made up of individuals and not really physical entities. And those individuals, mostly are behind BTC and not just making money from it. Before an attack happened, both
the pool operators and participants would likely correct the situation. Worst case we can say, "Hey get the fork off here..."

We have too many singular points of failure as it relates to funding mechanisms via the relatively few exchanges that exist. Once we start getting a more decentralized
exchange system (literally), then it will become increasingly more difficult to take BTC down, minus making it illegal. And, if it starts to become a store of value while
currencies fail around it, good luck to any government that tries - they would be attacked, if not for BTC then for what they let happen via the banksters.

There are approx. 2 billion PCs -> decentralized.
There are some thousand ASICs -> centralized.



Why?

And how many PCs are/were actually used for mining? A couple thousand perhaps? Maybe a little over ten thousand? Also everyone who used to mine with their PC is free to upgrade their mining hardware and purchase an ASIC or do a group buy and get some shares. I've bought some as well, and you should too if you care so much about decentralization. ;)

You seem to be pretty resilient to logic, so I make it simple for you - and ask you again:


Why?

Because it increases the cost for a potential 51% attacker.

You can leave out that condescending tone of yours if you want to discuss things in a civilized manner, it only makes you look bad. To answer your question: more combined hashing power strengthens the network and makes it less vulnerable to attacks.

+1 and wouldn't it also lessen the effect of DDOS attacks? (If they can actually attack that portion of the Network)...

Not really true.  While there may be some 2 billion PCs, only a tiny fraction of that number ever mined bitcoin. 

If you are going to count non-mining computers, I will count non-mining ASIC devices, and suddenly there are a lot more than "thousands" of ASIC.

Both Google trends and forum activity are lagging indicators. Quite nice to picture the current situation, and to compare "today" with "yesterday", but complete useless anything else.

When I look at your explanation, that "condescending tone" is obviously needed in your case.


Let me ask you another question: Which Bitcoin network is "less vulnerable to attacks": a) or b) ?

a) 5 Avalon ASIC Miners, combined hashing power: a whooping 325 Gh/s
b) 5,000,000 PCs with CPU miners, combined hashing power: only 50 Gh/s


It seems you failed to understand basic Bitcoin concepts. Like "difficulty" ...

- 5 ASIC miners can totally destroy 5,000,000 CPU miners (is CPU mined chain safe ? .. answer: it is not).
- Is p2p infrastructure with 10,000-100,000 ASICS safer then 5,000,000 CPU ? (answer: yes)

Please, gentlemen, a little bit more outside-the-box thinking!

Who says Bitcoins hashing algorithm (SHA-256) is god given - and can never be changed?

Why buy additional hardware (ASICS) to get back to the original decentralization when there's a much simpler way: Change the hashing algorithm (to e.g. scrypt).

Bitcoins idea was to democratize currency. At the moment we see quite the opposite.

I agree that a hashing algorithm that has a normal pc as its ASIC (meaning there is no hardware more suitable to mine than a normal pc) would be ideal.  
But under the current circumstances, when there is a vastly more efficient machine for the current algorithm, its good that these are being used.

Define: "vastly more efficient".

A Bitcoin mined at difficulty 10,000,000 is not better than a Bitcoin mined at difficulty 1.

Bitcoins idea was to break the monopoly of the banks. To democratize currency. To become the money of the people. Now it seems it becomes the money of the ASIC companies.

Satoshi would be turning in his grave ...

You have to evolve or die. (no matter if it is SHA-256 or ....) There will be always smarter guys who will come with inventions and will take profit.(only 1 winner, 99 have to lose ... do not cry "WE WILL MINE WITH CPU" it is your choice)

There's one more problem with using CPU/GPU only for mining: Botnets. With ASICs around they are not much of a threat anymore. I think changing the hashing algorithm to scrypt brings way more trouble than it's worth. And I really don't see how ASIC hardware undermines the democratic nature of Bitcoin as opposed to CPU or GPU mining, I just don't see any fundamental difference.

According to your previous definition Botnets are good ("... more combined hashing power strengthens the network and makes it less vulnerable to attacks ...")

Botnets are good for the Bitcoin network.

Botnets can be one example of such an 'attack', more combined hashing power is what made these Botnets lose their power.

at generating hashes with the current algorithm....
Try mining with your CPU versus the ASICs in the network.

Meanwhile little has changed on this front
http://i.minus.com/jeKzBbWeIIDl.jpg

I think different timeframes should be used to compare both bubbles

http://s13.postimg.org/mmdgf1zf7/btc_2_bubbles_weeeeeeeee.jpg (http://postimg.org/image/mmdgf1zf7/)

It just did. In fact it was selling in the 80s yesterday on BitStamp. 70s here we come.

All data are lagging indicators. All. So you are saying data is useless?

A negative Bitcoin value? Sure, I'll be paid to buy your bitcoins. Sounds good to me.

sorry for double posting. I am experimenting with new image upload site.


http://cdn.imghack.se/images/fa8f4097f0941b596f73e61de44836cf.png (http://www.imghack.se/106132)

Ok.

First - Interest is going back a bit. Of course it is since new people are even warned by us that 100+USD is too high to enter safely. Or would you tell your family to start buying bitcoins at this level? I wouldn't.

Second - even if many of the fears are not valid that may be spread now through the community of fairly new adopters - they are fairly new adopters - and that means the rate at which you can try to educated them, or they can/will do it on their own may be by far not fast enough to keep up with current or arising fears (gox, laws etc).

Third - ASIC miners start selling all they mine or may become afraid to do so, even if some plan on holding for a long time (they might actually have to), and old coin holders might create additional selling pressure alike because they want to sell too before prices come back down. Asic miners alone wouldn't be an issue, but if a down trend starts, it might start a vicious circle of fear.

Fourth - In case such a circle starts, we haven't even talked about short sellers in a long time. Let alone the fact that there are now many other alternate currencies that may interfere (people hedging in litecoins for example)

Good luck everyone. May I be wrong.

honestly it looks more like this
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=939.777777671814&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2012-06-01&e=2013-01-01&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&p

You got it wrong. Those indicators are lagging (and useless to predict future price) because both forum activity and Google searches are driven by price, and not the other way around.

Pray-tell... Why would higher price increase forum activity?

I think the theory is that it would increase forum activity for the same reasons it would increase Google searches.  If more people are interested enough to Google search it then why wouldn't those same underlying factors not also drive more people to satiate their inquiries through posting/viewing on these forums?

And why does it increase Google searches?

It's hilarious that some people think data - i.e., lagging indicators - is useless. In that case looking at charts is useless. Seeing that the price has gone up or down in the past is useless.

I guess the fact that people have used money as a means of exchange in the past has no bearing on whether they will use this new thing called bitcoin in the future, right?

Nobody said data is useless. We are saying that google searches or forum activity follow the price, and not the other way around. The higher gets the price, the higher go the google searches. As soon as an ATM is broken, there you have parabolic growth in google searches.

You don't even need to look at those charts, you know how they look on beforehand.

Honestly, it doesnt look like that at all when you compare it to the 2011 bubble, which it closely resembles.

+1

For the life of me, I can't find the article. But I wanted to see if anyone else had seen it and evaluated it.

The article I'm thinking of, compared the Dollar Index vs the BTC dollar price over time, starting with right after the last BTC crash from $200. The Dollar Index was offset by three days, and it showed a pretty good leading indicator to the price of BTC.

How would one create a chart to track this?

You have to consider market maturity. The summer 2012 drop had already factored in the 2011 drop. You're entirely forgetting about that.

I'm not saying it does, however it does seem likely when you look at the correlation between search metrics and price history.

Assuming it does some guesses:
- increased media attention puts it at the forefront of attention for some people causing them to search for to see what other related news they might have missed out on.
- coin holders now have to potential reasons to sell their coins (or buy if they think the up trend continues) which leads them to search or discuss state of affairs and options on the forums.
- people following and believers of bitcoins have increased reason to discuss bitcoins with others.  Whether to gloat or give investment advice or whatever.
- probably a ton more I can't of off the top of my head.

I think you're thinking of The Genesis Block article -

http://thegenesisblock.com/want-to-know-where-btc-prices-are-going-watch-usd/ (http://thegenesisblock.com/want-to-know-where-btc-prices-are-going-watch-usd/)

Why does everyone seem to think Google is the fountain of knowledge?  Google trends is a comparison tool, not a final answer.  Its also based on popularity, which contrary to public opinion, is very a good way to solve a problem!

Its a tool that just highlights how many people searched for a term, over time.  So, if bitcoin was most popular during its $235 peak, then that is what Google trends also shows, however, if something happened tomorrow, that would effect the trends figures for yesterday.

Let's imagine that Obama was assassinated tomorrow, by a man wearing a bitcoin forever tshirt.  Bitcoin on Google trends would go sky high.  How are you planning to forecast the price of such an event today?  Its not possible.

More importantly, Google trends looses its power over time, as everyone becomes educated. To prove the point, do a search for Bible, and its peak was at the start of 2004, same time as Google trend started.

I do agree that 2011 is a good indicator of how the near future is going to look, but in the long term, nobody has any idea, and its just luck if anyone gets its right! :)

What about the converse?

Bitcoin is at the forefront of attention; thus:

• Search volume for Bitcoin drives more buyers into the market, fuelling price increases.
• Speculators react to increased search volume and media coverage, further fuelling price increases.
• High search volume drives media attention to Bitcoin, creating media coverage which continues to fuel price increases.

I find this more likely, as I don't see why a high price alone will drive media attention to Bitcoin.

Hmm good points.  Maybe it's a bit of both?  Seems possible there could be some feedback loop effect here.

I was a bitcoin bull, now fearing more and more we are actually in a 2011 repeat. Just compare the forum activity at that time and now:

http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/1631/kv7.png

Number of new members falling hard, number of posts still at a high level. That was ALSO the case in 2011
When the number of nen members hits 100/day, we will see the decline starting (I guess to 20-30$).

Removed my buy orders today, added multiple sell orders due to this chart...

The green line, right? Hasn't that been in a strong decline for a while now ever since it topped out in May or so?

yes, the green line.
I was in some sort of denial. But now this period is just too long.
But also the red one is coming down now.

If you campare this to 2011, we see that when the red one is coming down, the new highs are lower than the previous highs and the new lows are lower than the previous lows, a bearish sign...

It's like you guys are conveniently ignoring all the development in the past two years

Quick update on proceedings. When will the trend be broken? The price seems unaffected by what is happening in the world instead just gradually deflates. The profit takers certainly are hard at work and make good use of it.
https://i.minus.com/jb2fcHCgEJspoT.jpg

Very nice correlation :)  So we'll bottom at 30~40...

IMO that depends on a lot of things:

The continued progress of BTC's infrastructure
More interest in BTC (only 11 million shares right now) - Many of the holder now will sell to lock in profits but they still believe. There will be more interest at the "bottom" is my guess, much much more...
Global economic situation (Heck, the whole Global situation, not just economic)
Continued manipulation of precious metals down by paper selling - forcing more seekers of wealth holdings into alternative areas.
(Especially) America's treatment of the regulation and legality of BTC
Etc.

So, I would be very very careful about putting a number on it. But yes, around 30 to 40...  ;D

2011 June 8^th, Bitcoin price peaked and most bitcoin software downloads where on the 15^th.
In 2013 the price peaked on 9 April and highest downloads where on the 10^th of April.

At the end of all this the smart once will have increased net possession of Bitcoins in the pocked. The short term speculators will continue to whine, cry and beg.

http://i.minus.com/jSwxYmogIk1Bo.jpg

Cant add more data to 2013 range as it needs a whole months data otherwise it points down to the current 20k for the month. (last point is 160k)
http://i.minus.com/j8NgDxBrvEP3U.jpg

Boy, do I long for the days before things fell apart.....  ::)

https://i.imgur.com/To5kkjv.jpg

Are you guys updating this comparison anywhere?

http://i.minus.com/jyTgc7TOQu8Ha.jpg

When will this relationship end?
.

Why aren't the starting points aligned?  Or said otherwise, the peaks are overlapped, but how is the Y-axis determined for both charts?  To get the same average price? Just somewhat arbitrary?

In my opinion, if you 'stretched out' the 2013 version a bit vertically, you would get better overlap.

When is the starting point? With the peaks its easy its a fixed day. Y-axis is just a screen-print from bitcoinchart and then the peaks are matched up.

Yeah true, starting point is somewhat arbitrary, but you can see here that the 2013 plateau at start is higher than 2011.

Could you post both pictures/layers separately?

2013 started at ~$13 to ~$1 in 2011

http://i.minus.com/jbjsYbLGvx6CX.jpg

Manfred, please tell me you've got your nick from watching Day[9]!  :P

An update:
https://i.imgur.com/NJJrQ2U.png

Would you mind checking with the crash of August/September 2012?  :P

Learn from history. History often repeats itself.

http://i.minus.com/jbag4ayzojlkQL.jpg
In October it was almost back to the peak already

you should include amount of produced bitcoins in that too. in 2011 there was way less people interested in bitcoin and reward was 7200 but now there is way more people and 2 times less bitcoins produced. Why nobody is writing in bold that basically the 2013 run up was started shortly after reduction of reward? Because there was not enough bitcoins produced to keep price low. Then how are you expecting the price to fall to very low values like in 2011 considering we have whole new situation here?

I am not expecting anything.

there are many people who are expecting price to be $30 but what if they realise that this price is never going to happend. Then they will want to buy for higher price creating another strong move upwards.

There are many people expecting the price to move strongly upwards, but what if they realize this will never happen? Then they will want to sell for a lower price creating another strong move downwards.  ;)

I meant 2013 and 2012...  :)

Also, it would be more meaningful if you aligned the top and bottom rather than just aligning the top with 2 arbitrary scales..... so much fail.

Not to be a party pooper but what about log charts, aren't linear charts sort of meaningless for a scaled indicator like this?

http://i.minus.com/jbxeW8tHJFxciE.jpg
Yes unfortunately we did not take the 2012 road instead we heading down the slipper 2011 country line. Who hired that driver? Bitcoin would be $160 now and heading for 200 very shortly. In 2012 it was a nice gradual rise ( $5 to $13) corrected before it boiled over and then continued to rise.
Who said doubling the price in a year ($13 to $26) is a bad thing. I take that kind of pay raise any day.

Since smart ones are viewing this do i included the proper 1:1 scale and in the right price range. It takes all kinds!
http://i.minus.com/j0PStsgKOM9MP.jpg
 

Seems important to put this here as well:

https://i.imgur.com/L7RBJJs.png


2012 reverted (pseudo crashed) to the long term growth trend, it appeared otherwise because it started low, and the peak wasn't very high, so it didn't have far to fall. In terms of its 'anatomy', it was just like 2011, and probably 2013 as well. 

I suppose you never know how the past is going to turn out because it hasn't finished happening  :)

This is a great thread and I wanted to say thanks to everyone who contributed, I have been sending everyone over here.

I was planning an update today. No I do it manually, but it's just 15 minutes of work :)
I'll post the link when finished

Don't undermine your work. The time you invested in the experience you have is not reflected in that 15 min. Knowing where to find the data feeds how to process them and which may be relevant, adds up to more than 15 min.

But thanks I'll be sure to tip your QR code.

Wanted to update now, but I just realized that the file is on my external hard drive, which is not at my parents house...
You will have to wait until sunday for an update...

And I'm glad you like the chart :)

This is the latest update that I've posted:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232865.0

That topic will also be used for other updates.

As promised (but a few days late):

http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/606/r5mm.png


Downtrend in new members continues (we had some spikes, yes... But nothing really changed)
Nuber of posts is stabelizing, downttrend seems to be slowing down.

edit: all the charts are here availible: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232865.0

but is this correlation causal and still valid, eg are VC/institutional investors rather than individuals starting to do things with BTC, that would not show up as a volume of new posters/members?

Maybe you are right, maybe we are in a bubble, maybe both

Who knows?  ;D

Great work on this graph :)

I agree, all time log chart is the only way to view accurately, shows how laughable some of the "rally! bubble! crash!" stuff is.

Does one exist that shows log market cap over time?

https://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=

Are there still believers of this theory?
I think the collelation with the previous bubble is over now...

Just take a look at this chart:
http://imageshack.us/a/img855/4141/9eaf.png

In the previous bubble, the number of new members was completly stable when the bubble was over. And what do wee see now? Stable number of new members :)