Bitcoin Forum

June 28th, 2015... DEFINITELY, over $1,000 USD. You can go ahead and add me to the predictions wall of fame.  ;D

Keep selling bears... more bitcoins for me.

$2,000 USD per BTC plus minus $25 USD ... hold me to it on June 28, 2015.

It will be worth a bitcoin because there will be no other currency.  ;D

0.18$ since US closed all exchange markets and you cant sell them or buy them.

This sounds accurate.

Here, let me check my spreadsheet ... 288.50 USD per BTC on 2015-06-28. Mark it in your calendar.

BTC5.55/1USD?

Quite the bull. I was thinking more along the lines of BTC8.12/USD

You don't need an exchange to buy or sell bitcoins.

JUst wait for GOX being shut down and watch the price :)

So this will be pulled up in two years so we can pat ourselves on the back.

Being the ultra optimist I am going for $10,000 per BTC.   ;D

I would have put $100,000 but I was being conservative.  ;)

It' Forbidden to have or help someone to get Bitcoins,
because Tax Evasion is Terrorism, if you only write about Bitcoins you will face severe penalty's
even detainemet in Guantanamo.

But the US is not the center of the universe.  So, if this is the case, then the rest of the world will have BTC and the US will become a third world country.

No, but other countries will soon follow suit.  Don't underestimate the US gov's ability to influence financial law in other countries.

60000 CNY   :D

I think you may be right, OP, but I certainly won't be buying and holding!

Sticking by my annual 550% rule.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=217773

The price could differ greatly from my prediction if there happens to be a spike or trough along the trajectory on this date in two years, but I'll go with $2875 per BTC on 6/28/15.

back to $100-150, but it's about to launch into superbubble nr. 3, which will be the last or second to last bubble with that kind of increase in magnitude.

A while back I saw a post that illustrated that since its inception the price of one Bitcoin has hit a rough benchmark baseline that it would never go below again every five months. The pattern was that every five months the lowest price would be twice what it was five months before. The post went through $8 and predicted that $16 would soon be the absolute lowest that BTC could go to.

In two years there are 24 months. Lets call that five periods of five months, because fuck it, this would mean that the price of one Bitcoin in two years would be $512 at the very minimum. (16*2*2*2*2*2)

If we are trading at a premium similar to what we are now (~$100:$16) the price would be about $3200.

Not if other countries tell you USAians to fuck yourselves in the arse. Watch this(it has subtitles): http://youtu.be/9gF5MraRO60 (http://youtu.be/9gF5MraRO60)

Trends always hold true until they don't.

That said, I am a bull on Bitcoin.  It is an unstoppable monster now.

Considering current international anti-money laundering treaties, that's not likely to happen soon (particularly with bitcoin).

Yet another reason I am thinking around 3k in 2 years time.

Either Bitcoin goes to $0 or Bitcoin wins

And that is the reason people should invest.  BTC is either $0 or $100,000+.  Seems like a good gamble to me.  ;)  What are the odds really?  I would think at least 50/50 at this point in the game.  Earlier on I would have said it was more like 20/80 or 10/90 that BTC would succeed.  Now is the time to get into for those that want less risk.  Why?  Bitcoin already has traction as the #1 cryptocurrency.  VCs are pouring money into it and there has been a decent amount of press and there are people already using it regularly.

and every day bitcoin exists nudges it closer and closer towards winning

In two years?  I'm bullish, but not as much as most people here are.  My bet is $200 - $500.  Keep in mind that most people still haven't even heard of bitcoin, and it's easy to say that it's going to be $1,000 or $5,000, but it's much harder to increase a $1.1 billion dollar economy by a factor of ten than it is to increase a $1.1 million economy by a factor of ten, which is what would be necessary to sustainably increase the price of bitcoins to $1,000.

If Bitcoin "goes to 0" it won't really be 0. It will always have trivial value as a collector's item!  ;D

or the market just needs to cumulatively agree not to sell for less than $1000. price is 100% psychological, it cannot be determined by a market cap calc'd by how many Bitcoins are outstanding * last spot price

if (USD<BTC) and (BTC>Market)
  {
  x="BTC Wins";
  }
else
  {
  x="BTC Loses";
  }

That simple. Really

It's impossible to convince an entire market not to sell.  I agree that the price right now is pretty much 100% psychological, but I think long term it will be based on more market fundamentals than it is now.

My guess that it will be between $10000 - 100 000 if the Fed and the banks don't disrupt it

I'm just saying that's a way to get the price to $1000 quickly. Also, the same fear that runs along panic buying will do it (the getting left behind phobia + a dose of understanding of future dynamics).

Sure, people can panic buy the price to $1,000.  I wouldn't be surprised if it happens, but panic buy prices aren't sustainable.  What I was talking about is a sustainable increase in price, in other words getting there and not crashing down to $100 or $500, etc.

but they pave the way for the future. see panic buy to $32. once we grind to $266 again, I imagine further panic buying. At all times the market is searching for equilibrium prices.

You people keep saying this, but its a false dilemma. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma) There is no reason bitcoin couldn't hover around .00005 USD (only traded and used within the niche community), or continue to boom and bust, or whatever.

0 or 100,000 are not the only options.

Semantics. What's the difference between that arbitrarily low number to zero and zero for Bitcoin? not much

OK, it could hover around $1 or $10 or $50 then...the number isn't important, and you are completely missing the point.

I'm fairly certain the Fed and banks will attempt to disrupt the BTC market as best they can. The beauty is, this will only strengthen Bitcoin, since people rightly have more trust in mathematics and technology than bankers. In fact, in the long term, the more (legislative, economic, technological) pressure the economic status quo exerts on Bitcoin, the greater effort the BTCommunity will devote to subverting them, resulting in overall stronger currency.

Bitcoin cannot be stopped, only laid aside. I'm a bull because I don't believe it will be laid aside.

Not necessarily. IMO there are low thresholds (e.g. pre-pizza) and high thresholds (e.g. total size of humanity's economy), and the places in between are not distributed equally. As an analogy, in many industries, it's actually easier to get $50M in VC than $250,000.

One of the many scenarios in which it would be easier to grow 1000% from a larger market than a smaller: large investment conglomerates prefer markets where they can easily move tens of millions daily. A $1M market doesn't even register on their radar. At $1B, they have a junior analyst submit a short report. At $100B, they have large teams in charge of their market portfolio. Right now, they're sleeping on it. But you better be sure they are keeping their eye on the market and possibilities to profit once Bitcoin can handle their scale.

There are many other extenuating circumstances one could list, whereby a larger market could grow more quickly than a smaller.

0

You have a good point here, but the fact of the matter is that the bitcoin market is still fairly illiquid in that you can't buy or sell a lot of bitcoins without moving the price.  Interestingly, there's already a bitcoin fund for what's called qualified purchasers (people with $5+ million to invest) who buy and sell very carefully so as to not move the markets.  But I imagine you're right that the big hedge funds, private equity funds, etc are barely even looking at Bitcoin yet because it's so small that it's barely on their radar.

Then again, getting in now (or earlier) if bitcoin ends up being super successful, is how to make a lot of money since if bitcoin truly succeeds, the long term prices will be in the thousands of dollars.

Or millions. Don't underestimate the downward pressure that Bitcoin expansion would have on the dollar's value. Runaway inflation is a real possibility in the wake of the continuing banking crisis and steady, massive increase in dollar supply.

True, in 2 years, the real problem might comes from the governments being insolvent, and the collapsing of goverment bonds. To keep that amount of huge pile of bonds afloat, 10x more money must be printed, when that happens, the only safe heaven is bitcoin

Until the lights go out..

$ 868,3

Considering that Tuur Demeester calculated in a presentation for the Bitcoin 2013 that a bitcoin would have a value of $500,000 if it takes over as the world reserve currency, I very much doubt it'll ever be in the millions.  See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7LQu-eIOO0&list=PLUOP0P68GJ3BGjfqoLLnzAefk3ZzXQtJ7&index=9 for the presentation.

I propose that not only will it comprise the world's reserve currency, but it will comprise a very significant percentage of the world's active currency in use. I estimate that the active bitcoins will level out at about six times the value of the reserves held in the world. Using Demeester's numbers (which I agree with), this calculates to 3.5M per BTC.

Also, I'm not making predictions about a bitcoin's future value in 2013 dollars, but the actual exchange rate.

I hope you're right.  We'll all be very rich if your prediction comes true.  I'd be surprised if it ends up being a true world currency like you're proposing it will, but hey, it can't hurt to dream.

Why?

Because you're talking about bitcoin effectively replacing the dollar, the yen, the yuan, etc throughout the world.  Governments aren't going to give up control over their currency without a fight.  I am bullish about bitcoin, but not that bullish.  Yes, it's peer to peer, the government can't just shut it down like they could with, Ripple for example, but my bet is that one or several governments would execute a 51% attack against bitcoin if it truly got to the point where it would be threatening their control over their own currency.  Even if it gets to the point where it would cost $1 billion to execute such an attack, I think the government would do it if that's their only way of controlling bitcoin.

By this logic you should put all your money in lottery tickets. Either you win or you lose at the lottery, so that's about 50/50 chance of getting a million dollars!

 ;D


There will still be fiat currencies hanging around when Bitcoin is mainstream, just like there will still be bitcoins hanging around used by a few hard core geeks in the situation when the price drops close to zero and everybody else has abandoned the project.

Between  1000$ and 2500$

A lottery ticket doesn't have 50/50 chance of winning. It's rather something like 1/100.000.000. But I think you know that.  :D



But a government is not an abstract entity sitting somewhere in a capital city and making plans how to hold onto its power. Governments are made up by people and if these people find it more profitable to use bitcoin than to destroy it, they will do exactly that.

I think most people underestimate how many people there are out there, who like to use bitcoin for things they can't even imagine. And most people also understimate how long it takes for someone who does not have the right background on cryptography, comp sci and economics to truly understand the power of bitcoin.

If people had a 50/50 chance to win a million dollars in the lottery, you better believe more tickets would be sold!  That is how I look at BTC.  Maybe it is a little crazy but to me it is like betting with really good odds.  It is a whole lot better than 1/1,000,000 anyways!

I'm going to guess $70 and slowly increasing.

For a 51% attack, an organization would first need to ramp up their mining operation gradually. (I wouldn't be surprised if they already are.) If they didn't, the massive jump in mining volume would alert the community to the attacker's presence and make an attack easily reversible. This takes time, and time means the market grows (imo). The bigger the market, the more miners are attracted to invest, and the faster processors get. This makes such an attack even more difficult to pull off; not to mention that the central bank attackers would be making profit through all this and may decide the profit is more valuable than control before an attack is instantiated.

Creating that large of a mining operation, even over a period of say 18 months, would be very, very difficult from the supply side. The attacker would need to set up manufacturing chains to create the rig network. Chains of that scale are challenging, if not impossible, to hide, not to mention all the loyal engineers that will be needed to set it all up and oversee. Leaking would be a real risk.

In any case, such an attack is trivial to detect quickly and while it can't easily be prevented, it can be recovered from, with some possible collateral damage. I wouldn't be surprised at all if many government central banks colluded on a 51% attack at some point. They'd better get cracking though; the longer they wait, the more expensive it will be.

So, a 51% attack would not "shut down" Bitcoin. It would merely be a speedbump.

1 mBTC will be worth 4.20€

Profit is exactly the reason I think governments would want to eventually take down bitcoin.  By profit, I mean taxes.  It's much harder to tax people with a completely bitcoin based economy than it is with a dollar, yen, etc based economy, at least with the case of income taxes.  Sales taxes wouldn't really be much, if at all, more difficult than the current system.  I actually would prefer a sales-tax based economy over an income tax system, except for the fact that it's regressive.

Oh, I absolutely agree with you.  It wouldn't necessarily be easy.  Actually, I do know of a relatively foolproof technique governments could employ to do this without it being possible to recover control, but I do want Bitcoin to succeed so I'm not going to lay out the details on a public forum.

+1

Indeed.. Decline if an empire !

I hope you're wrong!

It is really easy.
 - gov says: If you want to use Bitcoin then you must register public key of your deterministic wallet. (gov will know every your address)
 - then gov will know about every transaction who is sender, who is recipient and amount. (unregistered addresses will become illegal)

It's also really easy to get around that. So, everyone has their white market taxable wallet for Uncle Sam, and their grey market wallet for everything else.