Bitcoin Forum

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this +1

If someone expects the price to drop, he will never buy at loss.
You don't trade with feelings or emotions. You trade with a strategy.


And I think that the recent increase in price will be inverted, after everyone withdraw his btc from mt.gox, and people start understanding that current price is overrated.

(stocked up on Popcorn)  ;D

Who trades with fear and greed? If you don't trade yourself, how would you know?
You only trade with money you can freely lose, so what would you be afraid of?


I'm trading bitcoins, and I am not greedy, I have a strategy with "take profits" and "stop loss". I don't change it because I feel it right to change it  ::)

This seems to be the prevalent explanation of recent rises, however I don't see how this goes along with rises on other exchanges? If gox withdrawal is the driving force shouldn't we see the spread increase? Rather it seems bitstamp if closing in (percent-wise)

1 week ago, the difference between mt.gox and bitstamp was 10 usd.
Currently, it is 15.5 usd. So, the gap is increasing.



Mt.gox is still, somehow, a "reference", but it will change soon I guess.

I don't think the discussion is about YOU, but the market of traders as a whole. They trade on greed and fear (the majority).

You are right.

However your post is primed to trigger those emotions as it is basically a victory song for the buy and hold strategy. A strategy that at todays price indeed proved to be a better one for most.

I must admit I start to feel the fear myself. Only a month ago my trading strategy came out way ahead of a buy and hold, but now it's equal again.

Was it all for nothing? Will I miss the train?

You think yes. I know not. I kept some, I sold some, and statistically the chances are in fact much higher that a collapse below $100 will happen again before the end of the year.

Popcorn - and - fiat ready ;)

Close but I think maybe a bit more rally followed by sideways for two to three months.  Perhaps a panic dip at the end just to flush out a few remaining week hands and then the panic buying ensues.

Lol, even the worst website for wannabe-traders explains in the first steps / lessons that you should not trade with emotions.
Everyone should trade with money he can afford to lose, that would be the second lesson.

And I'm speaking about websites designed to people who know anything about trading / finance like (in French): http://www.forexagone.com/


People who took a loan and invested everything in bitcoins and only trading with fear to lose everything and greed to make more money are just plain stupid. If you consider themselves as a majority: lol. That might be their first mistakes as beginners, but they won't do it twice...

How many do you know if you are willing to share?

You might be exaggerating the number?

I know of 2 whales.

That's a lot of people I admit.

Sentiment is divided. You can read a lot of 'will buy lower' indeed, but also still a lot of permabulls and buy and holders around, who become more outspoken today, like you, which is another indicator this market is ready to turn.

Also, we all talk our books, unconsciously or not. Are you aware that your book is a permabull one?  ("I do not trade at all")

:) So how has the ride been for you the past months?

I'm asking since I am really tempted to change to your strategy.

The only thing that worries me, will I be able to handle the sometimes devastating losses? Were you?

Have fun guys. Fun time has begun !!!
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyztgSza1gSMAzm1g7za2gEMAzm2g14zxzi1gUOzi2gMACDzi3gRSIzi4gCCIzvzl

There will definitely be some action in September for sure as the Fed will announce if they will end Quantitative Easing or continue with QE3. If they reduce or stop QE3, money will be flowing out of the stock market and looking for somewhere else to make a profit, not saying it will all come to BTC, but even a small % will have large effects for BTC. Not to mention the speculation with the BTC ETF being approved or denied which will have a major impact on BTC price. I am feeling bullish about BTC price as everything seems to favor upward gains at the moment for BTC.

LOL come on, clearly you aren't aware that most people aren't expert traders. Sure YOU might trade on pure logic and strategy, which is the best way to go, but most people aren't that controlled and this is pretty much common knowledge. Bitcoin is the ultimate example of fear and greed controlling peoples trades. The insane price swings from 266 all the way to 50 in days are lead by traders emotional panic and desire to get as much money as possible, either going up or down.

Agree. Only with low volatile asset trading can you easily separate emotions with logic. BTC however, is highly volatile, it can gain $20 today, lose $40 tomorrow. High volatility in my opinion is normally high emotions and uncertainty. Your typical investment rational strategy is not effective with highly volatile assets.

I think you may be underestimating where the price could go this fall.

I have been in NYC the past two weeks working on several very significant Bitcoin related projects. I think there is a possibility we could see a major price melt-up based on fundamentals (http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/forecasts_trends/archive/2010/01/05/anatomy-of-a-stock-market-quot-meltup-quot.aspx) to $1,000+, perhaps even $5,000+ and then a crash if the markets get particularly unruly, bitcoins over the next 6 months.

While some people have allotted a certain portion of their "wealth" to bitcoin and will allow things to play out without even considering selling during crashes.

Potential upside is vastly greater than the potential loss so the risk is worth taking. Let it ride

Any chance you can elaborate? Also - Will you be posting to your blog anytime soon?

Thanks!

$1,000 in 2013 would mean a drastic price rise, a major melt up. Frankly, I don't see that happening but he, this is Bitcoin  :-*

I think new people entering the market will do what I did in April.  I was new and then thought, "Wow.  I can't believe how fast the price is rising.  I should have bought more when I first invested."  Not knowing how far the price would rise I then decided to invest as much as I could afford to lose.  It was a bit of an "emotional" investment at that point.  Of course the market then crashed.  I did not sell low though.  I just figured that there would be a rebound at some point, which there is now.  This time around I plan on selling half of my stash when the price doubles for what I paid and then I will buy more if the price does crash.  If it never crashes again then I have a small little stash of BTC that I did not pay anything for at least so it becomes a zero risk investment regardless of what it does at that point.  That is my thinking anyways.

zero risk investment? :D there's no such thing.

Anyway, align yourself with the universe and listen to your heart while sending unconditional love to everyone and everything. Then, you can enhance your trading strategy by adding the gut feeling component which will be the truest of them all.

But the banks will sell you that ILLUSION, usually in the form of a home valuation that "always goes up".

Vladimir - manipulating the price since 2009.


Remember people: this is all speculation until it's history.

lol :)

Wish I could.

Just wait for the news, serious journalists like the WSJ have already been getting briefed but cannot write about it yet, which should come out around the last week of September. Additionally, this fall there will be probably 6+ 'big names', like Richard Bove (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/08/14/bitcoins-are-a-buy-at-50-richard-bove-says/) or Chamath Palihapitiya (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59uTUpO8Dzw) [starting at 19:15], in the investment community that will come out in favor of Bitcoin and that will cause a lemming like effect.

And the private wealth managers out of Asia are stacking Bitcoins away as the new favorite asset class. Many of the HNWI family offices will not make an investment in the sub-$25-50m range. So, when Bitcoin melts up then it is going to be free range for a lot of these ultra-rich Asia families to move in.

If about $1m of new capital moves the price $9 then just imagine what $500m-$1B of new capital flowing into this asset class would do to the price. Especially if that $500m requires 'clean bitcoins' from a known source of funds. The making of a 'melt-up' in price to a much more fundamentally sound valuation since Bitcoins are largely undervalued given their characterstics (no counter-party risk, cannot be seized and equity based like gold).

This is going to be a wild ride this fall. So strap yourselves in and let's kick the tires and light the fires!

I expect that Bond & Stock Market uncertainty will drive the price on Vladimir's suggested timescale, and also that the Chinese state will fight the Syrian war in part via BTC price proxy. I was going to put the cheesy smiley, but on second thoughts, it's not so appropriate to defuse the disbelief of the solipsists anymore; if you don't think that either general market crashes or state inervaention in the BTC price are likely events, then you've got alot of lessons to learn in realism. I'm hoping there aren't too many lessons in realism for us all that emerge from the current geo-political trajectory. John Kerry is a scary kind of (former) peace activist.

I like wild rides.  They are fun.  The drops are a little scary but it is fun at the peaks. ;)

When this guy speaks ^ be sure to listen.

Sure but all these things take time.

I remember when prices were going vertical in April, still around $180 you were posting similar bullish stories.

It collapsed for months afterwards, hitting $70 several times, and cannot remember bullish posts from you at those lows. Now that price has been going straight up for 2 months crossing $140 again you are back?

I'm not impressed with your timing of bullish posts here on the forum!

Maybe the lack of comments on the lows was because he knew that it was just a matter of time before we would be back up again?  I think so many people panicked during the past few months.  Since I am generally very bullish I just held on during the lows with some assurance that we would eventually get back into a bull run at some point.

^ Excellent thinking! Totally approve. But do you have the discipline? When your sell price is reached, will you pull the trigger?

Besides Bitcoin, as we all know is DIFFERENT!

Well, it may actually be.

sunnankar is a professional investment advisor.  When BTC crashed (and who could have predicted it between 100 to 500) of course it becomes necessary to look at other things. If you are a painter sometimes you paint houses, sometimes bridges or boats.  But I did not hear sunnankar "dumping" bitcoin... he probably just had to do other stuff for awhile.  Whales make the same mistakes as the majority, following trends.

RS, start thinking rationally not emotionally here.  (sorry that you sold :-))  Put the post in its context.  This venue makes it extremely unlikely that it is a "pump" attempt, as compared to the broader media outlets that sunnankar has access to or even the wall observer thread.

I am glad to hear about a resumption of activity, esp. in the USA.  Clearly the effect of the Bitcoin Foundation's meeting was to ease some fundamental risk factor in some participants and their friends' minds.  Something fundamental and non-specific -- like maybe that BTC would be simply declared illegal in USA... 

You are twisting my words.

I did not say he is dumping bitcoins on lows, nor have I sold mine. I sold some, kept some. ;)

Just like so many others sunnankar his timing is poor. His most bullish posts appear at tops. At bottoms he is silent here. At least since I follow him end 2012.

This is not emotional analyses, just empirical observation.

I like his interviews and it's thanks to him also that I started seeing and understanding bitcoin. I agree with his long term bullish stand, I criticise his short term poor timing here on the speculation forum.

RS, I'd like to gently pull seniority on you here.  Sunnankar has been doing bullish posts since I joined early 2012, with BTC < $5.  He's been bullish the entire time, which is consistent with a financial advisor, BTW.  These guys and their clients are not day traders.

There's no "bad timing" here. There's no timing at all.  He's looking at a 5+ year horizon.

Thats the biggest joke of all time.

My initial trigger was set to 100$ but when I saw just how rapidly the price was increasing I cancelled my trigger, it's now set to 1000$. Also, to pull out funds the price should be somewhat stabilized. Cashing out during a rapid uptrend is a gamble for short-term traders, trying the outsmart the forming bubble. I would go for long term gains, eliminating bubbles from the equation.

Thanks for sharing that. Will be keeping an eye on the news. It just seems like a matter of time till big money starts to get behind BTC (and then smaller money will follow and lets not forget smart money  ;) ).

I wonder about countries like India, whose government discourages it's people from getting into gold (because the government is trying to!). And so BTC might be an alternative...
And as already stated, there is a bit of a currency war going on, so countries like China, Russia, etc. can use BTC as a bit of a proxy war against the USD. Russia does not forget easily what the US did to it's currency to help the Soviet Union collapse...

I think it is still hard for people to grasp that even getting in now constitutes an early adopter. (I speak to many people due to my job and most say "I won't pay $100 for 1 BTC." but they fail to realize they are thinking about things wrongly. e.g. not considering float, divisibility, state of finance everywhere, etc.)

IAS

Yes to the bolded. I've said it elsewhere as have others - It's nice to be a part of the largest social experiment (by us) in our history, and not "apart" from it. 
And this isn't about "The Money" per say, though money has represented power through coercion through our history and BTC is a step away from that.
BTC is not the answer, but it is an answer to get us away from corrupt banks, governments, corporations, etc. controlling us via the money supply.
Still a long way to go, but the first few steps have been taken.

I remember back in the early days of the internet (I was in IT then) - I saw the disruptive force it could and probably would be. Most people, as obvious as what it was that I saw, either were incapable of seeing it or just don't care about visionary things. Well, BTC is another disruptive technology and it came at a very opportune time. Too long ago it would not have been ready nor the right time, but now...

 ;D

Not sure what your intention is, but isn't that what Satoshi wrote into the first mined block?

Just to be clear, I was talking about before BTC was out, years before actually.
And by "now" - I'm talking the current time frame we are in, including BTC's inception.

When the price graph is the only piece of information that you treat most seriously, you're ignoring all the context that gives the price meaning. Alot of newbies do just that (been there). The panic buying that accompanies USD slump is going to be quite something.

Vladimir is right.

don't forget my new meme:

"The Vladdy Logarithmic Effect:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48850.msg2912354#msg2912354

In such case my criticism would be incorrect indeed. However Sunnankar his posts here on the speculation forum are short term predictions, like he did again in this thread, not long term ones.

I think my criticism still stands and I will add a warning: be careful with his short term price predictions here, I remember he also posted similar short term bullish stories right before the collapse from $200 to $50.

Long term his price predictions have been very good though and I highly recommend to check out his work to understand the true value and potential of bitcoin.  

very accurate short term predictions are available on
https://digitalcurrencyresearch.com/ (https://digitalcurrencyresearch.com/)

this is no ad, just a response to the discussions about short term forecasts

Just curious. Instead of posting your link(s) more than once. Why not just put your link in your signature? Maybe highlight it?

Wall street traders back from vacation, time for some serious play  8)

Yup, it's a game, not a currency ...
Should work out well  ::)

I totally agree with the OP's original point. Everyone expects volatility in BTC, and part of that means that the price should drop from time to time, but everyone is also long term bullish. I just don't think that the supply side will be robust enough to support a price decline; i.e. if the price drops, people are willing to just wait it out. This is why the price will not drop below $100 again

See ya's at 1k  ;D

The price of popcorn will explode as well. Good investment!

>> Lol, even the worst website for wannabe-traders explains in the first steps / lessons that you should not trade with emotions.

What is trading for then, if not for some adrenalin?

Upon further review, you have given up a lot. How far can you go?

And Vladamir, oh, I get the feeling you ain't telling all...

It's About Sharing

This subforum is filled with too many overly optimistic dreamers. It really waters down the content when everyone is so bullish.

None of you know what the market is going to do tomorrow or next week. The market has a mind of its own, and you can't predict the future. You guys act like there's no chance its not going to 260.

I myself see it very possibly coming back down towards 100-110.

The problem, perhaps, isn't that there is too much optimism, but rather what backs it up? Some of the posters here are pretty respected. I'm open to any opinion. But lets see some evidence.

What is the basis for your bear opinion? (e.g., TA, fundamentals, etc.); Otherwise it is essentially the same thing as the bulls just being bullish with no evidence to back it up.

IAS

You are just on a shorter-term mind set.

I'm thinking longer term.  ;D

It is irrelevant what the market does tomorrow or next week. Ten, twenty and fifty years are much more important price points :)

Surely CoinHoarder will respond...

Yeah but thinking long term is boring.

The basis of my opinion: what goes up must come down.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Also, since the first huge price upswing to $35, it took a full year before the market was able to match that and surpass it. I just don't see it going to $260 again until at least later this year or next year. Bitcoin is still so small, almost no one's heard of it. These huge price swings have to have a lot of money behind them.. I just don't think it's there at this point in time. Maybe we are a few headlines away from that happening, but at the current state of affairs I see it as unlikely.

In your opinion.  :D

With that theory we should be at $2 then in the future right? lol

Do you not agree? Open markets... they go up, they go down. If it just went up 30-40%, it's more likely to come back down in the near term, no?

I'm not saying I would bet my life savings on it, but there is a chance it will happen. Everyone else acts like this is an impossibility.

Start a business that accepts btc, get a hobby, go to school, or get a job.  Find a better use for your time than playing "guess the next subsubsubwave" in a market that has tremendous volatility.

This is another nonsensical rule of thumb based on herd mentality. The claim is not supported.

The bolded doesn't follow.  If it were so obvious that the price would be coming down in the near future, it would have already done so.  Surely you aren't the first to observe that the price has jumped 30-40% recently.

Whatever... it is my opinion, as you obviously have your own.

It doesn't mean anyone is right or wrong, it simply means we will agree to disagree.

Sorry to make a some non Bull posts... I will leave now and let you guys get on with your dreaming.

To the moon!

shhh no tears

Sorry for off topic question, but what is meant by 'clean bitcoins'?  Is this related to coins that can be traced back to a miner source (IP), or it is related to coins involved in some prior theft?  {I searched and could not find a answer.}   Thanks in advance.

Why do they care? PR?

(Not sarcastic)

Everyone? Impossible?

Quotes to prove your claim?

30% to 40% would mean a drop to $87.75 from $135 (approx).

I agree yes it is possible, but likely it won't. You are a miner and you should realize by now how the bitcoin returns (denominated in Bitcoin) are shrinking very quickly. This is bullish for the price. It proves that there is more miners with more hash power than ever.

The daily pie is 3600 BTC and most miner's shares are decreasing each adjustment.

1 year ago we were at $10 or so. Now we sit at $130 to $145 (depending on which exchange you want to use as your price gauge). I say $130 to be conservative.

In a year it could be possible we are sitting at $250 to $1400 very feasibly as the tiny market supply of bitcoins dwindles due to more mining interest, hoarders, and overall just the fundamentals that there will only ever be 21,000,000 BTC but there is INFINITE amounts of fiat in digital form (which excludes all in-person cash transactions).

The price may go to $120 or $110 but that would be in the near term. Longer term I disagree wholeheartedly based on past performance and current sustaining fundamentals of Bitcoin in the world economy.

Fair enough but we aren't exactly dealing with a stock here. This is like a micro cap company (share wise) that is essentially the biggest at what it does and with little competition. And it (BTC) does something that is failing around the world as we speak. And it does more that the current economic system needs (e.g. cheap overseas payments, even in Country.) Now, I can't argue that the price is going to come down, but what I can argue with is how it got here. It got here from BIG BUYERS. This has been happening since we bottomed at $65. It is up to them, not TA, not what we think, though how much we buy or sell can have an effect - But, they have BIG pockets.

Further, this person or group of people doing the HUGE buying are following TA to an extent. When they stop this rise stops, but how much money do they have? Thus far few others have jumped on board. When that happens then you got bubble 3.0, or is it 4.0?  ;)

IAS

for the most people it seems that 3 month are already "long term"  ::)

I think we entered that phase once it crossed $130/$160

Where do u think we are? Is there hope for $100 still?

I love when this happens. ;D

This ^.

The recent two month move is not done...

To be revisited at the end of the year.

Chamath Palihapitiya, check
Asia, check
Wild ride, in progress

OP delivered :)

In the past Decemeber has flatlined, perhaps because people pull money out for travel, Christmas/Hanukkah gifts etc.  I was thinking that would happen this year as well but perhaps it would be best not to bank on that?

Bitcoin adoption rates are not seasonal (calendrically)

I tend to buy bitcoin (in Casascius coin form) around the holidays to give away as gifts.

when i read this i thought "no way...", but u were right

Vladimir, what is the next eventful period? :)

Price is going up and down 10-50% day by day, this is beyond eventful..

I think I'm going to overdose on popcorn

Can't even sleep