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Seemed Logical to put this up here guys...Lets put all speculation here and fill and clean up the actual [ann] thread.  With the great news delivered earlier today, I'm feeling highly confident about KNC ETA.  If you disagree with me, then put your btc where your mouth is here:


http://bitbet.us/bet/472/kncminer-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-october-1st/

Looks like more believers are filling up the YES column - so if you disagree (EVE)  then please fill up the NO column with your bitcoin so I can take that too!

Re: your bet:

define "respected". I'd say it may be better to give a minimum activity count but some users with high activity count might not be seen as respected. It seems a little arbitrary at the moment.

To me .... 5 different members posting their tracking number on the board here or 5 different sets of Screenshots floating on the internet that show final KNC hardware hashing counts as fair proof in my eyes.  I think you are correct in that 'respected' is somewhat subjective in nature.  I suppose that in the eyes of bitbet, 'respected falls into these following categories:

NOT SCAMMER
NOT NEWBIE (<5 posts or 5 hours on bitcointalk.org)

right, if thats the case then sure, it's clear enough I guess.  I'd be happy with 5 clearly different screenshots & other details such as hashing output etc too.

Their announcement that all Oct orders will ship before Oct 15th is VERY encouraging...I think they're going to pull it off  ;D
I hope so, I can hardly wait to crank up my Jupiter  ;)

NO Chips to show and 28 days to month end?

What Do You Guys Think?

NO                 YES

28.20 BTC      21.20 BTC


KnCMiner will deliver ASIC devices before October 1st

    KnCMiner will deliver ASIC Bitcoin mining devices to their customers before 1st of October 2013. Devices must meet advertised performance (>175GH/s, <500W for Saturn ; >350GH/s, <1KW for Jupiter) in order to be accepted as valid. At least 5 deliveries confirmed by respected members of the community required.


More and More people don't believed that KNc will deliver before October 1st. With NO NEWS on Chips, how many will Believed they will deliver before 1st October 2013.

http://bitbet.us/

Majority says they will not delivered on time.  ;)

 ::)

What a bright yellow ignore button....

Just like I said...put yer bitcoin on it then Eve...you're confident...that's a free lunch then is what you're saying...put some coin on it!!!!!

I think 5 members showcasing stock hashing rates on any major guild would be enough for me as anyone can photoshop a pic.

No news worthy of reading from your website, are their chips still work in progress

Can't wait - less than a month. I hope they can get more than 400 Gh/s out of the chips. If they can pull 600 or more I'll be super thrilled. I'm optimistic they'll ship on time, but I have a vested interest that they do. Need my MF coins.

Pics are supposed to also include a pic of your KNC miner too!  Like a screenshot of the hash-rate related on accompanied with your mining equipment it shouldn't look like a stock photo at all.

Obviously when you get the thing, a video even with a smartphone will be easy enough, just upload it on youtube. I doubt it will be five people getting the thing, it's a production run; either they ship a hundred plus on time, or not...but only five people are likely to pull their finger out and share.

a knc thread and i am on page one ??? wow !!!

Too Bad I'm not an early adopter....say....doesn't cloudhashing count as 5 different units???

Given the power requirements as well, NO seems safe bet.

I swear but something always comes up. Good luck I would have voted no on this.

we'll see...I think they already posted the power requirements and suggested power supplies already It was 850 W PSU on the Jupiter and so its now a matter of getting them delivered

nudge T minus 5 days!!!!

What if they "deliver" the unit to their datacenter? Does that counts? For retard Luke-Jr and BFL it counted.

if users have their btc addresses plugged in with worker details and they are hashing away then hell yea it totally counts.

remember they only need 5 units on bitbet up and running and photographed....their datacenter will have hundreds or maybe low thousands in my opnion/armchair guestimate.

*5 different members

Well currently it's not looking as if 5 members with 1st day shipping are even available close to Stockholm for a pick up in person at late notice, which kind of defeats the bet even if KnC can deliver on the 30th itself! :-\

I'm ~15mins away from their offices. Will be picking up a few customers 1st days miners as soon as they announce, would that count?

YOu would need to take photos of each of their different units hashing and would need to at least give their member name a shoutout per order, since you're picking up multiple, it would need to be confirmed for sure that you do indeed have 5 different units for different people shown in the same photograph.  We'll have to pray that 5 different swiss folks have preordered and plan to be hashing and will share their miners to the world come monday or hopefully sooner.

Aren't they testing the gear and populating it to your btc wallet? Has anyone noticed any additional coins in their wallet yet?

I can tell many people are new here.  You don't know PAIN until you've experienced the waiting PAIN of BFL.

KnC won't make it to you in September, live with it.  1st week of October is now what we can look forward to.  Lets let KnC do their jobs and stop filling their inbox full of crap.

Would they allow you to pick up other customer's orders?  It seems risky on KNC's part as people could fraudulently claim that they never received it.

Also available in Stockholm for Day 1 pickup and for ASAP photos of hashing (unless they fail to deliver that is, then I fly out).

I Could be available for my first day order. But KNC would have to pay for the flight  ;D

Im pretty sure the flight would pay itself if the alternative is waiting a week, possibly longer due to customs

Im from Holland. It's a Europe Europe shipment, no customs.

Ryanair from eindhoven to stockholm costs <50 euro. Well maybe a bit more once you actually book and pay all the inevitable surcharges, but thats probably cheaper than UPS or whatever they are using and  less than 1/3 of a single day mining revenue at todays difficulty. And you'd get to see stockholm.

I wouldnt think twice about hopping on a plane.

Stockholm i've seen. Prefer the women of Sweden more than there city  ;D

I could hire a van and take a roadtrip to Sweden.

Enjoy Swedish beauties, have a nice weekend and on the way home, pick up some lovely gals...I mean miners.

Maybee we could find a couple of 1ste day dutchers for i combined pickup.
I also looked to go by car just a few minutes ago. Only 14 hour drive.

But my girlfriend is about to explode (not because i mentioned beatiful swedish girls but to give birth to my daugther).
She does not like me to go out of the Country at this crusial moment  :-\

Why is this counter set to midday Tuesday ?  Is this supposed to be a "week 1" delivery counter

You can always have another daughter, you will never again have the historic opportunity to pick up the first 28nm miner!
j/k :)

Take her with you.  Try not to drive across many railroad tracks though...

This, please fix it.

I set it to Tuesday October 1st, but okay I turned back the clock a day and set it to midnight Monday Morning...Although its a crapshoot at this point for day one orders to go out the door that day....maybe I'm totally wrong (hopefully)

Why? Then it's incorrect. The deadline is the end of September, is it not?

Which is Tuesday at Midnight. Monday is the 30th Sept, Tues is 1st Oct, thus the deadline occurs as 23:59:59 30/09 --> 00.00 01/10.

Sunday night/Monday morning is not the end of September.

Why not just set it to midnight Monday 30 September to Tuesday 1 st October GMT (BitBet time, one hour later than Stockholm time)?

you still believe, that KNC fulfill what they promised and deliver 1st day miners until end of September?

I would count picked up and hashing as delivered.

For the bet terms (which I think are good terms to actually determine if KNC did deliver in terms of time) I count Orama and me on standby and Blastbob, gr0bi42 if they announce it before Monday.

If Day 1 is Sunday and Day2 Monday then CYPER could get one too. That would make 5. Otherwise one more for pickup is needed (for the terms).

who said that day 1 and day 2 are send in 2 days? for my opinion it means only first production and second ...

Mate, I have a day one order, if they deliver at anypoint next week i'll be happy. In any case if they are being assembled by a third party/outsourced production house then the script with all the customers asking for delivery by courier is in their hands now. You can't have someone refund if that order flow cannot be changed and they both receive a miner and a refund, it would be a logistical nightmare, and yes, i'm sure at least someone will try to scam the manufacturer. If the goods do not arrive, or they try to scam, that's another story, in any case if they have all done a runner i'll know if i'm standing on my lonesome in Stockholm (I doubt they would build datacentre by hand, that would be super elaborate- I don't even know why i'm entertaining this thought)! In anycase it appears they have moved office from last time, as I have been given a different address, and they said it was a new office, not a production facility, which I doubt would be in Stockholm.

Xialla i'm not sure what your motive is, you're a customer, that seems to want to encourage as many refunds as possible, and as I said before, even if you do succeed in that, do you honestly not think if, and when, the product is proven no one else would snap them up? Instantly?? There will be no dormancy if they prove a working unit, especially if it's better than promised.

But Xialla's post wasn't about refunds.  ???


I wouldn't be happy if they deliver later than promised.  I see no reason to not expect promises to be kept especially when I and many others payed a non-trivial sum in an exponential, time-dependent market and spent time counting on those promises.

Sorry that's my bad then. I've just spent a few mins catching up, and they are in the other thread, and have been for a while. In any case I think it will tough to deliver them before Monday. Tuesday perhaps, if they are overnight and leave on Mon. Pick-ups could be possible if people can make it late notice and they have miners ready over the weekend/Mon. Again, I don't have scooby what their situation is, but i'll find out more tomo. I would like to see people win the bet, I'm competitive and it would be a shame to see it come down to inability to have people pick-up in person if needed last minute on Monday. I personally don't have any money riding on the bet though, I just enjoy the banter.

Hi, can I ask that when in Stockholm you try and determine what the likely distribution of deliveries over time will be? I have an August order and would love to get a rough idea of it's delivery date...

Could I also ask that you try and convince Sam and Co. that they open up their order books like Hashfast have done:

https://hashfast.com/order-chain/

I think it makes for a much more transparent and fair market place where customers can make informed decisions. See BFL fiasco for motivation :-)

See, this is the part I don't get. This ain't personal, Feebackloop, you just hit my WTF threshold on something I see a lot of people posting here and on the main KNC thread.

The way I see it, the biggest part of the exponential jump in difficulty is based on KNC this month. It was Bitfury last month, and will be again in october, along with KNC. If KNC is a few days late, the way I see it, the only people harmed by it are those who gambled on bitbet on KnC's side, and to a small degree, Knc themselves. (because if they are a few days late, they are still ahead of every other asic vendor out there so far except bitfury). As long as they deliver the product, a few days delay will not affect YOUR ROI any differently than them shipping on time, or to a negligible amount.

Unless you actually think BFL will fill their backlog in the next 5-10 days... If you do, any of you, PM me with how much you're willing to bet on it. I need money.

BFL???? What are you talking about?  

I would prefer not to derail this thread. This is about KNC fulfilling their schedule or not. Not about BFL (again, wtf? BFL?) nor ROI considerations.

Simple enough?


Instant EDIT: OK, ROI considerations are important because they connect with the time of delivery and the exponential I mentioned.  That is exponential not because of BFL. BFL will be irrelevant from now on and no sane person would even consider them as a variable.  

KNC made promises, lets see if they deliver on them. If not they should tell everyone as soon as possible.

You really don't get what he is saying at all, do you?

BFL won't fulfill their backlog, but they are affecting the network hashrate on a daily basis with their (slow) deliveries. Mining reward per device is front-loaded and everyday lost is a potential lower difficulty reward also lost.

Sorry. It's 6ish AM here, I just got up. That was way more rambling than I intended. Now I've had a cup of coffee.

What I was asking and trying to illustrate, is why do so many of you care if they are a day or even a week late, as long as they deliver? It's a black eye for them, and for the "yes" side of the bitbet, but overall should not have much effect on your mining. Because KNC is the prime mover this time around in the projected rise in difficulty. If they are slightly delayed, so is the rise in difficulty.

As for the BFL, that was just a dig at 'em. If anybody is foolish enough to take THAT bet, I want a piece of the action :)

I personally think that KnC is likely to miss by a day, but they very well could make the conditions of the bet, if they have ten or so units ready to go on monday and a few people picking them up in person. As I've mentioned before, I have no skin in the game. That being said, I want them to succeed. This is the horse I would have backed if I'd been able to raise the cash.

EDIT: Missed your instant edit :P

True. But the major rise, if it comes, will come from KnC delivering (this round).

And if punin isn't joking about being ready to start shipping October orders shortly after the frist of October, it's going to be an interesting couple of weeks, difficulty increase wise.  It may be BF and KNC...

I missed that. Buzzdave's last thing seemed to imply the end of october. Ahh, the chinese curse :P

US may well be end of October, due to all the problems getting the 200th mine up, but punin made comments that imply EU October units could start shipping shortly after October 1st, or first couple of weeks in October at the worst.

Dave has another 100TH mine to build so he will probably be late (I hope it is not the case).  August orders were pushed aside because building 100TH was a priority.  We're suppose to be paid/credited for the delay but so far I have not seen anything.  As for Octobers orders, he might surprise us this time, but then again, they already tasted the power of 50TH+ doing solo, so they might want to add 100TH+ to the current setup.

There is a "hashing war" going on right now.  BFL is doing its best to ship all of their gen1 products before they become completely unusable.
Once all bitfuries and bfls are out, that KNC miner might not be as hot as when you bought it.

The good thing is that by spring of next year, it will be all over.  Plenty of in-stock 28nm products (or equivalent) and 12 months ROI.  Just like GPUs.

That is why buying pre-orders (regardless of specs) does not make any sense.  Network diff might be 2PH, or it might be 200PH 3 months from now.

 

Ya know, I think this is the first time I've seen this. I'm a little stunned. Your post makes sense and I largely agree with you. Two things I didn't think would ever happen.

The pre-order game made sense a few months ago, if you could get in on the first wave. At this point, wait and see coupled with only buy "in hand" hardware seems a wiser game.

I couldnt disagree more - the buy in hand hardware and you are paying 2-10x what you should as there is a higher demand than supply for asics hardware.

Right now this is true, but it's also true that right now the diff is rising exponentially. The costs, after the NRE's are recovered, will come down to what the market will bear for long term returns. If you have the cash, right now, it might be worth it to preorder. I personally think that window is past until the next generation of chips.

This doesn't make your argument invalid. This is one where there are few clear cut answers. I personally think that as time goes by and bitcoin continues to gain traction, the big boys will get in on the asic game, or even some new sort of application that makes it work. The current race is against power consumption, as it's now obvious that they can and will make seriously scary amounts of calculation.

You seem to be pretty mature, but unfortunately that's no indicator of age anymore. So, if you do remember this, it's all good, and if not? Well.

In 1979 IBM announced the original IBM PC. I can't recall the price, but it was way above what most other computer vendors were offering. Just like THIS race, there were dozens of viable competitors, and IBM was seen as a "has been" even though they had developed a great deal of the tech that went into the nascent personal computer revolution. Most of us back then would likely have bet on Apple as the dominant one, since the Apple ][ and ][ + were on the market and 'only' about a thousand dollars for a 64k computer. The PC generated a lot of buzz because it was supposed to ship with 128k expandable to 256k and have an optional hard drive. but it was like three times the price.

We were wrong. The open architecture made up for all it's other shortcomings and by 1982 if a computer wasn't "IBM PC compatible" it was an also ran. The price had dropped by over 1/2 at that point, due to advances in photolithography and improved efficiencies in hardware production, and straight up demand.

I see the same thing happening with bitcoin. I think that in a year's time there will be petahash units at reasonable prices for the hobbyist, and that the "pre order" game will be largely done. I also think the early adopters will not get screwed the way some of them think they will, as the difficulty would have to rise exponentially for a couple of years before the machines became unprofitable. Those that think they have to make a positive ROI in the first couple of months are either mathematically challenged or just plain greedy. The latter I can at least get my head around, the former requires a lack of real world knowledge. Exponential growth on anything from bacteria to hashrate is an unsustainable paradigm. It WILL level off. Then, it will likely grow in spikes, just like memory devices and computational power has been in the computer industry at large.

Also, due to it's deflationary nature, there are really only two possible long term outcomes for bitcoin. It will go into the dustbin of history, or it's value will increase with increasing adoption. There really isn't a third road here. If you are only aiming for short term gains (this isn't really aimed at You, just a general statement) then you are basically betting that bitcoin will fail. In which case, why buy the machines at any price? If you're betting long term, as I am, you have to weigh the costs RIGHT NOW vs. waiting until production and competition ramp up. That is indeed time sensitive, and for my coin, right now watch and wait makes more sense.

ok it was fun....but BF needs to GTFO...this says KNC not BF.

Noted. I get tired of the comparison myself. While I try to be a realist, I rather like KnC.

It is now Sunday afternoon Stockholm time.

If they had a Jupiter on hand to demonstrate, BTCorama (who is browsing the forum now) or KnC would have posted by now

the cat is out of the bag...Sam has been telling all sorts of people that they will ship SECOND week in October...

Sam hasn't replied to emails for days, so what's your source ?

lol, joking?.)

Ok, it is hearsay and rumor but i read it in a post here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=303037.0


Also read it another thread from someone else but can't remember which one. Though this can be interpreted as you will i guess. October 1st must be off now though right?

Not a single demonstration of a working device and shipping is supposed to start in less than 24 hours. There must be a delay of some sort.

Prepare to be YiFucked ;)

September 30th 1 a.m. in Stockholm now..let's see what today's news will be (if there are any)

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-40

so many experts!!!  you soo smarty yes?

I think the level might happen sooner than you imagine. The 28nm chips announced by Hashfast and Cointerra are 400-500GH/s. The next steps are 22nm (like Ivy Bridge) and 14nm (like Intel's Broadwell) which they just announced this month as being an upgrade to their CPU lines in 2014. We've been playing catchup for all of 2013 as ASICs were introduced, but at some point (and I'm just guessing, as I have no industry knowledge, so if I'm totally offbase, someone please fix me) I expect that these startups will start bumping into the plants that produce CPUs and smartphone SoCs, at which point shit is going to get real and the reasons for delay will sound more like "well, we had an order placed, but Samsung kicked us out of the queue".

It's been a meteoric ride so far, but there is no way we see 2000x per-chip increases to 1PH/s in the next year if we're already at 28nm at this point.

It doesn't have to be per chip. The prices will come down. At first, there are two major price factors driving the consumer price on a new silicon device. The first, lower one, is NRE. The second is demand, and that can be (currently is) the main driving factor. If you are a device vendor, and you can sell it at 1000x cost, you'd be a fool not to. Once the competition starts either outperforming or outpricing you, you need to reevaluate your pricing. So, if you're smart, you lower your prices in increments on the chip that has already been masked out, engineered and produced. The per wafer cost after NRE isn't that much. They can squeese a lot of life out of that by simply offering cheaper prices and/or more chips in the devices. Yeah, there gets to be power issues after a while, but they buy time that way. This also gives them more time to optimise the next gen design, which will probably be more power efficient, less redundant, and a higher hashrate. Given the humongous physical size of KnC's chip, for example, I would guess that they went for at least 10x redundancy in their design just to make sure they made their deadlines. Shouldn't be too hard for them, now that they can concentrate more on engineering precision and less on setting records, to optimize that design rather severely.

Also, as you mentioned, there are smaller processes. Some online, some just starting. In the "race for the bottom" we haven't yet hit the bottom of photolithography, though it's getting close. Plus, most if not all of the necessary conditions to develop nanomachines now exist, so it's quite likely that by the time photolithography hits it's theoretical limits, there will be a better, cheaper alternative. The 'state of the art' is always a moving target in electronics.

If you had told me in 1981 that just 3 decades later I would be typing on an obsolete computer that is more powerful than the supercomputers of the early 80's, I would have laughed in your face and called you an idiot. I would have been wrong.

Sure, the current ASIC designs coming to market are at a very small feature size, but they are still first gen devices. They are not as optimal as they can be. Right now, getting to market is more important to the manufacturers than getting a truly optimal design. I think that you will see a lot of scales of efficiency within the 28nm market long before it goes to a smaller die size. Actual timeline is another matter. But I am standing by a year to two years IF bitcoin starts going seriously mainstream before the big boys care to touch it. I think companies like Cointerra and KnC think so too, and they are positioning themselves to be partners rather than roadblocks when that day comes.

I don't think BFL's people are smart enough for that, and I suspect they will fall into the "also ran" category in the fairly short term.