Bitcoin Forum

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=thUSD&t=S&height=320&r=21
The last three weeks on Tradehill

Here's the last three weeks on Tradehill. Three weeks, because that gets us past the churn from Mt. Gox's problems, and Tradehill, because there's less noise.  On a daily basis, the prices are about the same.

There are no rallies. There are no crashes.  There is just a slow, steady slide.

This is normal post-bubble market behavior. Nothing to be surprised at here.

How far/low do you think it'll go?

This is just depressing.  :(

Getting closer to turning off my mining rigs.  $7/BTC and they're going off, at the current difficulty level.

Can't see it going to $7 but I havn't been watching for long.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_yrHR_xt0EN4/SXha-pWMzbI/AAAAAAAADsI/HwivtqW7Ojw/s1600/bubblesandmanias.jpg

kinda looks like the bitcoin chart hehe.  I was one of those "New Paradigm" people at the top.  Still am but that was just a little premature.

Question is, what is the "mean" that we will return to?

 :-\

I dont think its gonna go down to 7.  I think there are way to many eyes on bitcoin.  I dont like to speculate but hey its fun.  Plus I have some rigs too so I'm kinda in your boat.

I'm guessing it hits the recent intraday low of just above $11 before the bleeding stops.  Where it goes from there depends on the news coverage.

the three stages of mining:

1.)  git 'er dun:  put every dime you've got into hardware.  source locally so you can get it quick - the only goal is to put out the Mh/sec as soon as possible.  get everything stable and cool so you can stop screwing with it every ten minutes.  pay off the hardware.

2.)  software efficiency:  start squeezing every Mh/s you can, out of what you've got.  optimize drivers, try out all the available mining software, check out different pools, etc.

now me, i just ended stage two, and i'm starting in on...

3.)  hardware efficiency:  focused mainly on electrical power usage.  hopefully, during stage one you were thinking ahead, and bought hardware that would still be usable in this stage.  for example, cases with 8 or 9 slots, instead of the standard seven...

in stage one i was putting up miners with two PCIe slots on the motherboard - because it was fast and cheap.  now i'm looking at four and five PCIe slot motherboards, so i can consolidate my GPUs and PSUs - and i don't have to pay the power-penalty of running a whole computer for every two GPUs.  i'll be getting rid of those cheap hard drives, in favor of running the OS off of thumbdrives.

i should be able to pay off my only cash output - upgrading the motherboards and some PCIe extenders - by using all my leftover parts to build a couple of computers that i can sell to people i know who need them.

right now, with my hardware paid off, i need a BTC exchange rate of about $4.00 to break even.  i figure i can get that down to somewhere around $2.50-3.00 without too much trouble.  if that happens, maybe i'll need to think about turning off most of my miners - although i'll always keep one on; running solo with the client (who knows?  i could get lucky...) just to support the network.

Haha, good call.  The main reason my current setup is so inefficient is the high A/C costs... basically doubles my electrical output.  And it's less than $7, but I think $7 would be close enough that I'd probably stop mining at that point.

WELL DONE Nagle, your data only shows the price for less than one month, or roughly, three weeks  :-\
Not enough informations to go on...  ???

yeah - that A/C is a bitch.  i'm right in the middle of the current midwest heat-bubble - so i'm kinda lucky:  nothing over 100 F like on the edges of the bubble.  looking at two-three weeks of 90+ though...

i forgot to mention that one of my hardware efficiency goals is to get a 4" duct fan, build a rack-shroud (hmmm... a brassiere?) out of foam, and try to exhaust most of my waste heat out of a window.  we'll see how that goes...

There are still a lot of people with a lot of coins that were acquired when the price was well under a dollar.  If things continue, I'm sure many of them will be happy to cash out at even $5 (potentially profiting thousands of dollars in from a small initial investment in less than a year).  I think everybody should be prepared for things to get real ugly.  Honestly, I'm not even confident this project will survive a year as anything more than a tiny hobby with a market cap of a few million.  It looks to me like this ship is sinking, and I have a hard time imagining any well-funded investors foolish enough to jump on board at this point.

Well thankfully alot of people do believe in this project and want it to succeed.  Well funded investors are investing into other parts of bitcoin too.  Its not all about pumping the money into buying them so the price goes up.  I think you're missing the point of bitcoin.

This is the only reason that I don't believe bitcoin will ever cease to exist.  There are many highly motivated people who will continue to use it no matter what the rest of the world thinks.

I think the most not-direct-investment money (setting aside mining) is being spent on creating exchanges, and, of course, you can come out ahead in that bitcoin related business almost regardless of what the price does.

Another good example of the sort of negative sentiment predictions that may eventually indicate the full deflation of the bitcoin valuation bubble.

So what, Bitcoin is not meant to be a get rich quick scheme.  If getting these people out the way leads bitcoin to its true value so be it.  Although most of these "negative predictions" are just people hoping to buy at a lower price.

Actually most "investment" in bitcoin is occurring in the creation of new businesses around it. But, you don't see them until they appear, months after they started production. The people who really believe in Bitcoin are building businesses, not speculating on the currency (though that's fun too =)

My qualifier for bitcoin conforming to 'bubble' status is price declining to the 5 dollar level by the end of August. I doubt this will happen, however. Being above that level by the end of August would confirm the bubble assumption is incorrect.

Having just witnessed the two-dollar plus rally from 12.50 just now, I'm not subscribing to the 'slow death' theory either.

The long term average value of bitcoins is under a dollar, but even the most pessimistic speculator is unlikely to believe that's achievable unless there is a severe disruption to how bitcoin works (hack, economy collapse, government intervention, etc).

Currently there is a slow and steady trend downwards.  I'm using any upward spikes to sell bitcoins.  Did quite well today at $14.60, just shy of the temporary $14.70 peak.  I'll buy in again should the value drop to $12.50.

Look like that CNN video caused the price to spike up. I was wondering why it was in the $12's to bounce back up so rapidly.

it probably had nothing to do with the CNN video and had everything to do with dwolla clearing and gox reinstating euro transfers

Except the Euro transfers weren't reinstated... they're supposed to come up with news on Thursday and they will be reinstated next Tuesday at the latest (so they say).

As it has probably been explained before, the lag time between getting an account registered, funded, then pulling the trigger on a trade is longer than the time interval between the story and the price increase.

No cigar, maybe check back in a week to see if there was some casual effect.

How do you know that's not just interventionist policy on the part of some early adopters?

Question 2: if it is, does it matter?

Early adopters would be rich in btc, not in USD. Consequently, while the early adopters are more likely to be able to drive the price of BTC down by selling, they're less likely to drive it up by buying.

There seems to be the conventional wisdom around that the price was on a downward slide, held back every now and then by the intervention of someone putting up a wall. But there is the alternative analysis, which is that the price was on a steady climb, BROUGHT DOWN every now and then by someone putting up a wall below it.

Time will tell, I guess.

I've had the feeling for some time now that the Bitcoin exchange rate is being artificially depressed. I really wish I had the USD to act on it.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&height=320&r=28
Mt. Gox, last 4 weeks.

It's been 4 weeks now since Mt. Gox came back up after their outage and rollback. The trend since then is rather clear. On average, Bitcoins are dropping $0.50 to $1 per week. The long, slow slide continues.

This is typical post-bubble market behavior. 

Mr. Weekend I presume :P

Yea a weekend that lasts 4 weeks

Bubbles burst not slide.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/84/Nasdaq_Composite_dot-com_bubble.svg/500px-Nasdaq_Composite_dot-com_bubble.svg.png
NASDAQ Composite (tech bubble)

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?noheader=1&height=280&width=500&m=mtgoxUSD&i=Hourly&s=2011-04-01&e=2011-08-15&t=S&c=1

But afaik it did burst, from near 30USD to 17ish and then it entered in this "Long, slow slide"

Sure, there is no denying the irrationally exuberant bubble of greater fools from say $10 to $32 in about a week and the subsequent SYMMETRICAL crash. We are now in despair or the lee side bear trap. Maybe 2002 in the tech bubble collapse. But...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/de/Nasdaq2.png

The numbers line up well. 1BTC = 100 in the composite index. And one tech year is one week in bitcoin land. Christmas could be analogous to technology stock in 2030. :)

Its looking like the slide might be over..finally..

Funnily enough if BTC's price remains relatively static and doesn't budge from $13 to $14 for the next 3 months that would be the best possible thing to happen to bitcoin.  It wouldn't make the traders and speculators happy, but it would remove the extreme volatility that makes bitcoins very unattractive for real commerce.  Long may the mediocre price continue :-)

This old thinking doesn't make sense. Certainly bitcoins, like any other scarcity must plateau, but only after accelerating toward saturation; It's growth rate will initially tend to follow a Sigmoid curve. If we've already plateaued then call me infidel because the bitcoin economy is unsustainable at this level.

It makes sense to me that most growth now is seen in exchanges and utilities. We need liquidity now before we can attract Meze Grills. Merchants need customers and positive speculation brings customers. We are in an early adopter phase. If merchants want to get involved, learn the ropes, be first to market, they'll profit handsomely in the long run. Merchants must also take risk to reap great rewards. Otherwise, we're not ready for them and they are not ready for us.

Bitcoins will continue to have numerous bubbles like a leaf falling in reverse. Swish up, overshoot, slow correction, swish up, overshoot, slow correction, swish up... doubling at minimum each time as we gravitate toward mainstream. If you don't believe this, you haven't quite grasped the potential. There are only two options for bitcoins: Fringe failure or historic disruption.

This Long, slow slide is the beach pulling away before the tsunami.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?noheader=1&width=720&height=200&m=mtgoxUSD&r=360&v=1&cv=1&l=1&t=W&a2=SMA&m2=40

Ah, such a beautiful analogy, thanks.

Bitcoin was hit by a perfect storm (massive media exposure, government inquiry, bubble and pop, virus stealing wallets, and hack at the major exchange), the media witnessed the results and was not kind. Whether for love or hate, bitcoin is now on every economists' radar.  The next hundred-day cycle will be in the lime light and that bubble too will pop. The fresh blood won't recognize this pattern even after the fifth round.

bulls are preparing to fight, bears have fear
http://bitcoinity.org/markets?currency=USD&exchange=mtgox

From what I can determine by watching the price is that there are not many buyers who want to really pay over $13 and not many sellers who want to sell under $13. It seems that most of the selling are done by people with big bitcoin boldings, maybe early adapters. I have noticed that bidwalls of over 5,000 bitcoins are routinely sold into by someone. Seems like someone with lots of bitcoins wants to cash out and get his millions. Think about that guy who got hacked with over 400,000 bitcoins. Even if he sells for around $13, he will have over 5million dollars.

So what we have here is someone with lots of bitcoins wanting to sell out and not shoot the market down too far. So he will sell into bidwalls. He will usually wait to the price gets close to a bidwall. Think about selling 5K bitcoins and only moving the price down .05 cents, that will not really tank the market.

What we have on the buy side is what looks to be someone trying to stabalize the market by putting up bidwalls.

This is what seems to be going on from watching the market. Only a few big players here. I think the average person does not really buy many bitcoins and only mines really, probably holding on to most of the bitcoins thinking they will be worth $100 or more in a month.

Once the early adapters sell their bitcoins, and all you have left is the market manipulators, it will be interesting to watch the price.

On one hand the market manipulators will be buying most of the mined bitcoins. I do not know how long this will go on. They will try and promote scacarity by not selling, but at one point will they want to cash out of their large bitcoin holdings? When they do this how much will it tank the market?

How long will miners keep hording their bitcoins before they sell?

Interesting theory. If I'm not mistaken Mt. Gox claimed $7 million transactions in June or roughly 500 000 btc. Volume may have been higher then. And I'm not sure if that's input and withdrawls or internal trades. But none the less, there are over 200 000 btc generated per month. So I think it's entirely possible there is more trading per month than mining.

On the other hand, Mt. Gox's number could include both $ and btc i/o, but I have to assume with stable prices, it's an even rate. Anyone have better numbers?

Just a thought.

If there is say 2 million bitcoins produced this year and most of them are sold.
Bitcoin needs to get a 28 million dollar in investment each year to hold a price of $14 for each coin plus you also have a couple of million bitcoins that others want to sell. Say the double $50 million in new money could perhaps be enough, since not all mined bitcoins will get sold.

If there are 100.000 each investing in avarage $500 the price could perhaps be kept.

I wonder how many miners vs investors/speculators there are allready today.

That is incorrect. You are considering that all bitcoins which are sold are sold to new money, but it is of course not so. There are people on the market that hold BTCs and people that hold USDs, and they change commodities when they feel the price is right. So even 13$ of total new money can buy your 2million BTCs, theoretically, just going round and round from buyer to buyer, and you have two million people with 1BTC each in the end. So the actual amount of money in the market at the moment is unknown, and estimations of new money to keep market afloat make no sense, too. Only in the simplified world where there are BTC producers vs new BTC buyers would it make sense. Most common people are both.

Judging by the speed at which rally to 30 unfolded, there's quite a lot of spare USD holders in the exchanges, waiting for a time to exchange into BTCs. Can you estimate how much exactly? No, unless you hack MTGox.

Yes it was kind of a what if and thats why I was wondering how many miners vs investors/speculators there are allready today.
And how many new, if any are required. But fact is that there needs to be probably atleast $14x 2 million more in capital over the year.
 

istar, no, absolutely not so, because BTC end up in someone's wallet who already might have money from selling BTC earlier. and then that money can be reused again and again and again.

Your logic is flawed because new coins are constantly being introduced.  As the money supply increases, new capital must be injected.  Yes, you can reinvest to a certain degree but to sustain or increase price when supply is going up requires additional capital.  There is no way around that unless you believe all new supply is being hoarded, which is never going to be the case.

No you can sell it to me and I'll buy from you again using money I got selling your coins earlier. Money go around. The only real way to determine how much money is in the system, is sum up all incoming and outgoing wire transfers. Everything else is theories with no sound basis, it could be 10 times off and you would not know.

So CurbsideProphet, strictly by your logic, if let's say, oh I don't know, the Federal Reserve Bank convinced the treasury to print say 4x more dollars than has ever existed (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/AMBNS_Max_630_378.png) in a single year, the value of a dollar would be immediately reduced to 1/4? Holy $h!t:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&id=BASE

We're talking about Bitcoins but thanks for the strawman.

What's special about bitcoin that you logic applies to it, but not the dollar? I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I think netrin has a point.

Critique accepted. While I presented an extreme economic example, it is to point out the fallacy of your claim that M0 bitcoins are immediately equal to all bitcoin economic value which is not true, even if it is almost true. Well that and to point out a contrast with our immortal beloved.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/AMBNS_Max_630_378.png

They're apples to orange comparisons.  An inflationary (dollars) to deflationary (bitcoin) model for one. 

If you buy the new supply from me, from selling your coins earlier, those "old" coins would have to be purchased by someone else.  You cannot follow that chain into perpetuity without an injection of capital.  At some point new money needs to enter the system to support the price.

We already know supply of Bitcoins is increasing.  If supply increases and demand remains constant, price will decline. 

Except the supply of bitcoins is inflating even faster than dollars.  The deflationary aspect of bitcoins only applies when the merchant and manufacturing economy grows rapidly, or when the inflation tapers off many years in the future.  Right now they are both apples.

That's true to some extent, but keep in mind, nearly 1/3 of the coins have been minted now (2.5 weeks until we hit 7M).  So that means, at max, bitcoin will only inflate an additional 200%.  It's still kind of orangish since people expect that deflation to happen in the future, so that extra bit of future value is built in to today's value.  Similarly, the future and expected devaluation of the dollar is built in to today's value of the dollar.

But that's what I'm saying, you can follow this chain infinitely. Say, there are 100k USD in MtGox now, that means 100k worth of coins can be purchased right now, but if money stays in the exchange, tomorrow that same dollars could be used to buy another 100k of BTCs. So no, you don't need any more money in the exchange every day. You need the sum of incoming wires to be greater than sum of outgoing wires, and that has nothing to do with BTCs. You are calculating how much BTCs are minted, but the amount of USD that is added to the system daily is in no way tied to this number - only to the sum of daily withdrawals. Of course, for a successful rally there should be some fiat money accumulated in MtGox waiting for a bottom to BUY, and that's exactly what is happening during that slow periods. But there is no "amount of new money needed daily to keep price current" - price would stay current even if there's 0$ worth of trades.

So your logic is flawed, and I hope you can see it now. If you can't, well then, you can estimate that MtGox needs daily influx of enough USD to buy 2mil BTC, also :)

You're talking about the exchange, I'm talking about the market.  Also when you say:


You're making my point.  If the sum of incoming wires is greater than the sum of outgoing, that's new money!


I'm not saying the amounts need to mirror each other.  A coin minted today may not be sold today.  You're looking short term.  All I'm saying is, as supply increases, in order for price to remain constant or increase, money needs to enter the MARKET.  I don't care about the exchange and what's sitting on the side.  There's really no argument here.

If I mint 100k of new coins and put it up for bid, how do you buy those new coins without adding capital to the market and without the price of BTC falling?

You are making two assertions here - that all minted money are sold and that all fiat money obtained from selling them are no longer used in the MARKET but stashed away in some bank account. They are both false.

It does not matter if I'm talking exchange or global market - right now, with percentages of MtGox, it's almost equivalent. Amount of money that should enter the global Market in no way is tied to the amount of produced BTCs, and that's all I'm saying again and again. Because a. not all btcs are sold and b. people reuse old money; and unless you know A and B percentages (hint: you don't) you can't try to estimate how much *new* money the system needs, it will look foolish. That's what I pointed out in original *istar*'s post.

I never tried to estimate the amount of new money needed.  I only stated that a certain amount of new money is needed, but I never tried to quantify that.

Realistically, the price seems to have leveled out for now.  It's roughly at mining cost; the mining forums indicate that running existing mining hardware is worthwhile, but buying new hardware is not.

Mining cost alone isn't enough to determine the price, but it does seem to have an effect.

Now that we've had a few weeks of reasonable stability, Bitcoin has more potential as a currency.

I know that the going trend is to state that mining has nothing to do with the price of bitcoins, however, I agree with you that I think mining cost has something to do with the price of bitcoins, probably more then most people think.

have you noticed that if you say anything on the forum about price of bitcoins and mining people will get all crazy like "Bitcoin price and mining has nothing to do with the price, you moron". 

What you're describing is a "tangled hierarchy" and it is, in fact, the state of every economic system. Mining has an impact on bitcoin price and bitcoin price has an impact on mining. Many things have an impact on price, and many of those things are more substantial than mining activity - likewise price is not the only impact on mining, though price->mining is a stronger effect than mining-> price.

Among other things, miners produce some 7200 new coins per day - in times of low market movement the influx of new fiat moneys can be less than the face value of the 7200 new coins, and in such markets price tends to decline. This is just one of the many recognizable effects and it is admittedly a minor one that occurs only under limited circumstances.

Anyone who claims that they have the whole of the market "figured out" is either a fool or a liar. There are too many causes and effects and too many unknown ways in which the causes and effects interact, stack, tangle and loop back on themselves. The best we can do is look for indicators of mass market psychology and make educated guesses. Welcome to the wonderful world of economic theory :)

When prices are volatile, I tend to stay up late trading until I can buy in low, until then I get hungry and raid the fridge. I have recently noticed an inverse relationship between the quantity of munchies in my apartment and bitcoin volatility and a less extreme inverse correlation with trend direction. I am now on a starvation diet and expect the market to respond. If anyone calls me a moron, I'll consider that a reinforcing signal.

Moron ;)

Well-said.  It was so often repeated that price drives difficulty, "not the other way around".  I've always argued that the relationship is "two-way causality".  Note that since the crash from $30, difficulty hasn't dropped.  To the contrary, difficulty is still growing slowly but steadily, and seems on target to rise to between 1.8 and 1.9 million for the next re-adjustment.

By saying two-way causality I mean that price drives difficulty, AND the other way around: difficulty drives price.  To be precise, the evidence shows (see charts in my sig) that difficulty sets a bottom for the price.  I don't think its coincidence that the price to difficulty ratio has only gone as low as about 0.75 (using a weighted average price), twice for the two bear markets of bitcoin's history.  The first time was after price topped at $1.10 and fell from there, through March and early April.  And the second time is now, which is where it has been since the crash from $30.

If the the price to difficulty ratio continues hovering between 0.75 and 1 (until the coming rally :P), I think it makes for a pretty reliable economic indicator of the mass-market psychology of bitcoin.

I think you'll have to adjust that ratio for Moore's law.  I know we haven't had much in the way of cheaper computing hardware in the past year or so -- but sooner or later GPU companies will release faster products at the same or lower price points.  They have to, not only to compete with each other but also with themselves.

My out of the butt estimates would be a 30% average annual computing power per dollar increase even over the past 4 years of GPU stagnation.  The same $200 which bought me an 8800GT early in 2007 bought me about 4x the GPU power in the form of 2x5830s 4 years later.

edit: actually, I think it may have been late 2007 or early 2008 for the 8800GT.  Which means closer to 3 years than 4 for that power/dollar increase, in fact.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=640&m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&height=320&r=35
Mt. Gox, last 5 weeks. (Again, starting after the Mt. Gox screwup.)

After three weeks of slide and turmoil, we've now had two weeks of modest stability, at $13.50 +- 0.50.  

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&height=320&width=750&r=21
We're now up to 3 weeks at $13.50 +- 0.50.  Stability continues.

You could now price something in Bitcoins and not change the price very often.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD/accumulated_orderbook.png
Market depth, Mt. Gox.

There are far more sellers than buyers this week. The sell side keeps building up, but little new cash is coming in on the buy side.

Remember, it takes $100,000 a day in new cash to keep up with mining. If the supply of suckers investors dries up, Bitcoin must drop.

Yes, except the ones that really matter are dark pools, and we don't get to see them, and one of them at 10,000 BTC is enough to drive up the market price by 1.45 USD, as happened over the weekend.

Aside from that, you're spot on.  ;D

In the past
two months: average price: $22 +/- $10 (~45%)
one month: average price: $15 +/- $2.5 (~17%)
I think a merchant would be wise to sell with a 25% volatility hedge premium.

Yes, except there are no more darkpools on mtgox for weeks

None of the recent big buys was announced in advance. They're simply waiting for enough bears to swim into the net before buying. Big orders are fake, actual buys comes out of nowhere. So don't read too much into the order book even if there's no dark pool (that we know of) at Empty Gox.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_yrHR_xt0EN4/SXha-pWMzbI/AAAAAAAADsI/HwivtqW7Ojw/s1600/bubblesandmanias.jpg
Classic financial bubble pattern.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&height=320&width=800&r=180
Bitcoin, last 6 months.

Any questions?

Have we hit Despair yet?

No

Despair doesn't usually feel like confusion. You'll know when it hits by that sinking feeling in your gut that any BTC you have are worthless (or you've lost all your money), or you think that putting money in is pointless, as it's 'all over'. That's despair :).

I'm buying back during this selloff... guess I'm not in too much dispair yet!

Come on, despair! I want your lovely, lovely low prices!

That's funny, because I've seen plenty of this posted all over the forum today. In any case, this is obvious irrational panic selling without an obvious and rational reason, so it's time to buy while they're cheap. :)

Aye, but is there more today?

Way too many bulls thinking this is a bottom, not a top.  This isn't the "all is lost" point, this is the "omfg I've made 20% in a day and I'll make another 300% in a few more days!" bubble mania.  $5.80 resistance did indeed hold, kudos to everyone who had the courage to buy in at that level and the wisdom to sell into the following rally.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&height=320&width=750&r=60

Mt. Gox, last 60 days. There's some drama, but the overall long, slow slide trend continues.

There haven't been more than two up days in a row in the last 60 days. Each "rally" is just a bounce after a big drop. Usually, the bounce recovers about half the drop. Each month, the price of Bitcoins drops about 25%.

That's the reality.

Tololollololololo lolo lolo lolo trolllololololo

Honestly....who cares except you? This is a speculation forum for traders....you know...the kind of people who convert to usd when they see trouble, as long as there is something to be traded, it will be traded regardless of the value.

Go update your website or something...jeez!

So far it was the most accurate prediction - isn't speculation about making predictions?

Stating the obvious is not predictive, to date I've not had one valuable piece of information from Nagle other then I told you so's, which is about as valuable to me as an acid enema. But hey, if the dude get's his kicks by dragging our the graphs every time there's a downward move on the price of BTC...fuck it..it's a big internet.

In other news, USD has been in a strong upward channel against BTC since the dip of late July. We are on the long slow stairway to heaven.

Anytime anyone posts anything negative it's always met with TROLL LOL.  I see it as the internet's solution to I don't have an answer.   

I don't think that's the case, but mr OP (nagle) has his own special category.  I read his posts for humour value rather than information content.

It's now clear that there was a speculative bubble(blip really, true bubbles last longer then 2 days and are psychological in nature in that the adherents believe they have reached a permanently high plateau) in June. Dragging out a graph for a hit and run every week is just flogging a dead horse.
http://www.threadbombing.com/data/media/55/BeatDeadHorse.gif

Mr. Nagle is more then welcome to argue his viewpoints, but it seems he is intent on nothing more then I told you so hit and runs....hence.....

Tololollololololo lolo lolo lolo trolllololololo......  ::)

I've noticed that. It's common in pyramid scheme cases. In the words of the head of the Federal Trade Commission (http://www.ftc.gov/speeches/other/dvimf16.shtm):

Beware of any plan that delays meeting its commitments while asking members to "keep the faith." Many pyramid schemes advertise that they are in the "pre-launch" stage, yet they never can and never do launch. By definition pyramid schemes can never fulfill their obligations to a majority of their participants. To survive, pyramids need to keep and attract as many members as possible. Thus, promoters try to appeal to a sense of community or solidarity, while chastising outsiders or skeptics. Often the government is the target of the pyramid's collective wrath, particularly when the scheme is about to be dismantled. Commission attorneys now know to expect picketers and a packed courtroom when they file suit to halt a pyramid scheme. Half of the pyramid's recruits may see themselves as victims of a scam that we took too long to stop; the other half may view themselves as victims of government meddling that ruined their chance to make millions.

It's either a bubble or a pyramid!

The two don't co-exist. So make up your mind, and come back to the grown up's when you have an argument worth discussing.

We're about halfway through August and haven't slumped below $5.00, which bodes well for the "Bitcoin isn't a bubble" analysis I posted a while ago.

Just a few more weeks to see...

Few more weeks to see? Is there a finite time for bubbles?

The charts show a remarkable symmetry, yes. That is what I used to project out to this month and price level.

I found this interesting:
Bullish Trend supported by fully developed Head & Shoulders bottom - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=37296.0

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b

So far the price seems to be staying above the new "neckline" support (with pretty large demand just below the neckline) after the right shoulder.  (I think the neckline is a bit higher than shown on that chart and can most easily be seen by looking at the low points over the last 48 hours, but playing with the time period on bitcoincharts you can get a fairly good view of it as well.)  I think within the next week the price will start to turn around and head towards the mid/upper teens.  It will be interesting to see what happens.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&&t=S&height=320&width=750&r=60
Bitcoin, last 60 days.

Well, we had two weeks of drama. As usual, when things settled down, the price was lower. The long, slow slide continues.

Nagle, when you post bitcoincharts graphs, I recommend you use the c, s and e parameters rather than r, so that your arguments may remain consistent and true after you've posted them. Otherwise your graphs will change with time while time will prove your arguments false.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&c=1&s=2011-05-21&e=2011-08-06
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&c=1&s=2011-05-21&e=2011-08-06

C'mon - it's entertaining to see what predictions are being made with perfect hindsight and a graph to back it up.

It's also normal to make lots of predictions and only hold on to the one that works - that's what fund managers do when promoting great historic returns.  (and in really small type they add past returns are not an indicator of future returns = we got lucky and we make our fees irrespective of how much you lose)