Long, slow slide

[error]

Have we hit Despair yet?

Despair doesn't usually feel like confusion. You'll know when it hits by that sinking feeling in your gut that any BTC you have are worthless (or you've lost all your money), or you think that putting money in is pointless, as it's 'all over'. That's despair .

That's funny, because I've seen plenty of this posted all over the forum today. In any case, this is obvious irrational panic selling without an obvious and rational reason, so it's time to buy while they're cheap.

[1713262769]

1713262769

[1713262769]

1713262769

[1713262769]

1713262769

[Hunterbunter]

Have we hit Despair yet?

Despair doesn't usually feel like confusion. You'll know when it hits by that sinking feeling in your gut that any BTC you have are worthless (or you've lost all your money), or you think that putting money in is pointless, as it's 'all over'. That's despair .

That's funny, because I've seen plenty of this posted all over the forum today. In any case, this is obvious irrational panic selling without an obvious and rational reason, so it's time to buy while they're cheap.

Aye, but is there more today?

[grod]

Way too many bulls thinking this is a bottom, not a top.  This isn't the "all is lost" point, this is the "omfg I've made 20% in a day and I'll make another 300% in a few more days!" bubble mania.  $5.80 resistance did indeed hold, kudos to everyone who had the courage to buy in at that level and the wisdom to sell into the following rally.

[Nagle]

Mt. Gox, last 60 days. There's some drama, but the overall long, slow slide trend continues.

There haven't been more than two up days in a row in the last 60 days. Each "rally" is just a bounce after a big drop. Usually, the bounce recovers about half the drop. Each month, the price of Bitcoins drops about 25%.

That's the reality.

[YoYa]

Mt. Gox, last 60 days. There's some drama, but the overall long, slow slide trend continues.

There haven't been more than two up days in a row in the last 60 days. Each "rally" is just a bounce after a big drop. Usually, the bounce recovers about half the drop. Each month, the price of Bitcoins drops about 25%.

That's the reality.

Tololollololololo lolo lolo lolo trolllololololo

Honestly....who cares except you? This is a speculation forum for traders....you know...the kind of people who convert to usd when they see trouble, as long as there is something to be traded, it will be traded regardless of the value.

Go update your website or something...jeez!

[zby]

Tololollololololo lolo lolo lolo trolllololololo

Honestly....who cares except you? This is a speculation forum for traders....you know...the kind of people who convert to usd when they see trouble, as long as there is something to be traded, it will be traded regardless of the value.

Go update your website or something...jeez!

So far it was the most accurate prediction - isn't speculation about making predictions?

[YoYa]

Tololollololololo lolo lolo lolo trolllololololo

Honestly....who cares except you? This is a speculation forum for traders....you know...the kind of people who convert to usd when they see trouble, as long as there is something to be traded, it will be traded regardless of the value.

Go update your website or something...jeez!

So far it was the most accurate prediction - isn't speculation about making accurate predictions?

Stating the obvious is not predictive, to date I've not had one valuable piece of information from Nagle other then I told you so's, which is about as valuable to me as an acid enema. But hey, if the dude get's his kicks by dragging our the graphs every time there's a downward move on the price of BTC...fuck it..it's a big internet.

In other news, USD has been in a strong upward channel against BTC since the dip of late July. We are on the long slow stairway to heaven.

[Gerken]

Anytime anyone posts anything negative it's always met with TROLL LOL.  I see it as the internet's solution to I don't have an answer.   

[PatrickHarnett]

Anytime anyone posts anything negative it's always met with TROLL LOL.  I see it as the internet's solution to I don't have an answer.   

I don't think that's the case, but mr OP (nagle) has his own special category.  I read his posts for humour value rather than information content.

[YoYa]

Anytime anyone posts anything negative it's always met with TROLL LOL.  I see it as the internet's solution to I don't have an answer.  

It's now clear that there was a speculative bubble(blip really, true bubbles last longer then 2 days and are psychological in nature in that the adherents believe they have reached a permanently high plateau) in June. Dragging out a graph for a hit and run every week is just flogging a dead horse.


Mr. Nagle is more then welcome to argue his viewpoints, but it seems he is intent on nothing more then I told you so hit and runs....hence.....

Tololollololololo lolo lolo lolo trolllololololo......  

[Nagle]

Anytime anyone posts anything negative it's always met with TROLL LOL. 

I've noticed that. It's common in pyramid scheme cases. In the words of the head of the Federal Trade Commission:

Beware of any plan that delays meeting its commitments while asking members to "keep the faith." Many pyramid schemes advertise that they are in the "pre-launch" stage, yet they never can and never do launch. By definition pyramid schemes can never fulfill their obligations to a majority of their participants. To survive, pyramids need to keep and attract as many members as possible. Thus, promoters try to appeal to a sense of community or solidarity, while chastising outsiders or skeptics. Often the government is the target of the pyramid's collective wrath, particularly when the scheme is about to be dismantled. Commission attorneys now know to expect picketers and a packed courtroom when they file suit to halt a pyramid scheme. Half of the pyramid's recruits may see themselves as victims of a scam that we took too long to stop; the other half may view themselves as victims of government meddling that ruined their chance to make millions.

[Serge]

All this guy, OP, is doing is keyword stuffing  so in the future he can pull out these threads and say "look guys i was right all along" in case bitcoin will go the path that he describes. I don't see no other reason why he would choose being present here.

[YoYa]

Anytime anyone posts anything negative it's always met with TROLL LOL. 

I've noticed that. It's common in pyramid scheme cases. In the words of the head of the Federal Trade Commission:

Beware of any plan that delays meeting its commitments while asking members to "keep the faith." Many pyramid schemes advertise that they are in the "pre-launch" stage, yet they never can and never do launch. By definition pyramid schemes can never fulfill their obligations to a majority of their participants. To survive, pyramids need to keep and attract as many members as possible. Thus, promoters try to appeal to a sense of community or solidarity, while chastising outsiders or skeptics. Often the government is the target of the pyramid's collective wrath, particularly when the scheme is about to be dismantled. Commission attorneys now know to expect picketers and a packed courtroom when they file suit to halt a pyramid scheme. Half of the pyramid's recruits may see themselves as victims of a scam that we took too long to stop; the other half may view themselves as victims of government meddling that ruined their chance to make millions.

It's either a bubble or a pyramid!

The two don't co-exist. So make up your mind, and come back to the grown up's when you have an argument worth discussing.

[TraderTimm]

We're about halfway through August and haven't slumped below $5.00, which bodes well for the "Bitcoin isn't a bubble" analysis I posted a while ago.

Just a few more weeks to see...

[GeniuSxBoY]

Few more weeks to see? Is there a finite time for bubbles?

[TraderTimm]

Few more weeks to see? Is there a finite time for bubbles?

The charts show a remarkable symmetry, yes. That is what I used to project out to this month and price level.

[0x6763]

I found this interesting:
Bullish Trend supported by fully developed Head & Shoulders bottom - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=37296.0

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b

So far the price seems to be staying above the new "neckline" support (with pretty large demand just below the neckline) after the right shoulder.  (I think the neckline is a bit higher than shown on that chart and can most easily be seen by looking at the low points over the last 48 hours, but playing with the time period on bitcoincharts you can get a fairly good view of it as well.)  I think within the next week the price will start to turn around and head towards the mid/upper teens.  It will be interesting to see what happens.

[Nagle]

Bitcoin, last 60 days.

Well, we had two weeks of drama. As usual, when things settled down, the price was lower. The long, slow slide continues.

[netrin]

Nagle, when you post bitcoincharts graphs, I recommend you use the c, s and e parameters rather than r, so that your arguments may remain consistent and true after you've posted them. Otherwise your graphs will change with time while time will prove your arguments false.


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&t=S&c=1&s=2011-05-21&e=2011-08-06

[PatrickHarnett]

C'mon - it's entertaining to see what predictions are being made with perfect hindsight and a graph to back it up.

It's also normal to make lots of predictions and only hold on to the one that works - that's what fund managers do when promoting great historic returns.  (and in really small type they add past returns are not an indicator of future returns = we got lucky and we make our fees irrespective of how much you lose)