Bitcoin Forum

Self serving and cynical perhaps, but it has to be on people's minds, especially with the price climbing the nearer we get to a potential default.

I hope it collapses now, because if it collapses in the future it will only be worse. The system unfortunately has to collapse in order to be replaced by a honest system. 

The US won't default. If it did, it'd be the biggest nincompoopery ever, and whoever was president at the time would go down in the annuls of history as a complete moron. Then again, if you look at the makeup of the US today, how many folks with credit card debt would rather go to the theater and eat out than make their credit card payment for a month?

To quote George Carlin

"I like seeing people UNDER PRESSURE!"

So a part of me honestly wants it to happen just to see what would happen next. It would obviously benefit my btc holdings yes.

But also I live in a metropolitan area of America, and the prospect of a breakdown is scary. There are so many drugs and guns here, and no real access to food. It is frightening.

Guess we'll see.

I don't think anyone would go out and eat in debt and with no plan how to pay it off.

If you want the US to default for the SOLE purpose of increasing the value of your bitcoin holdings, you have a mental disease. I hope the title misrepresents the intended idea...

It's called Bitcoinism.

And your hope is a lost cause. Also pay attention to my signature.

BTC will skyrocket anyway.

If US defaults, btc will jump because USD failed.
If US doesn't default, it will cause deep recession, which will shot btc ever higher.


Recent SR news attracted a lot of attention to bitcoin. People's just discovered that even US judicial monster machine cannot seize $80M worth of bitcoins from arrested drug lord. It proves that BTC is probably the most secure place to keep your wealth. Many investors and traders started discussing bitcoin in recent days.

I don't want the US to default, primarily because I have money invested in the US.

Even if I sold every USD in my bank account to buy BTC, I'd still be screwed if the USG defaulted.

Um.
Allow me to point out the obvious.

If the US actually does default, the economy (which is right now precariously balanced on liquidity injections and ridiculous levels of federal spending) will likely collapse. That means gas shortages, food shortages, riots, etc.

Sure, the dollar will tank. But it doesn't matter how much BTC skyrockets or how much it is "worth" against another currency if there aren't any goods around to buy with it. You could price BTC with rice or gas but if there is no rice or gas such a measure is meaningless.

If there is no gas in the gas station what does it matter how much BTC is "worth"? If there is no food in the store what does it matter how much an ozt of gold is "worth" via some other measure, if there is no food to buy with it? It's merely an intellectual curiosity if there are no goods.

Who is going to accept currency for a good when they can't turn around and buy other goods with that currency?

The use for currencies - fiat or otherwise - in a post-default economic shutdown scenario is wayyy overstated by many of these alt media bitcoin/gold pundits.

Why exactly do you believe that a government default will prevent food producers from making food?

Seriously, I have no idea what you're on about.

Who said that a government default would directly prevent food producers from making food?

That is a ridiculous assertion and an offensive oversimplication. Is that how they teach people to think these days?

Google "economic collapse" "stock market collapse" "hyperinflation" "hyperdeflation" "government default" and learn about the myriad secondary, tertiary, etc effects caused by various significant government and economic catastrophes. This isn't kindergarten. I expect people to have at the very least a highschool- or college-level understanding of economics.

(Also, lol @ the insane level of condescension I managed to pull off in this post.)
(Also note how I humorously imply that one can become educated via google searches of certain keywords)

Guys the Tea Party Idiots gave in obamacare is coming, the crisis is more or less resolved because the troublemakers lost credibility.
They gonna raise the debt ceiling and have another war after Obamas term is over and a new mainline republican president is in office.

There will certainly be a period of time where we recover, but this is not to say the world is "over" once America finally buckles.  Believe it or not, there will still be a future after the tribulation; just as all other empires have kicked the bucket, we always figure out how to get along without them.  As much as America would like you to believe that they're the center of the economic universe and their existence is necessary for the world to survive (reminds me of something God might say), it's not nearly as bad as it's being made out to be.

My advice: don't be in America or one of its dependencies once SHTF and the effects will be minimal, assuming America doesn't attempt to nuke the planet to death to stay on top.

Feel free to elaborate; I'm all ears.

You REALLY believe this?

I think we won't know for sure until at least 6:00 PM on Wednesday. due to how Senate rules work.If Senator Ted Cruz has his way and the tea party in the House forcing Boehner's hand all the time[Hastert rule] it is very likely there will be a US default and the House GOP loosing a House that was Gerrymandered just for them come the next election.A lot of people aren't saying it but their fuming about this concerning the Republicans.

It won't happen, but I think most of the people in this community hope this happen. why not?

I don't especially think the price of BTC will increase because of it, however I'm curious as to what will ACTUALLY happen if the U.S defaults. People speculate a lot of things, however its one thing to guess, and another to see. I'm half hoping they do default to scratch my curiosity, however it could cause issues that I don't especially want to happen. So I just am going to go with what happens happens.

If anything, this situation has taught "normal" folks that the government can screw up. So hopefully those 50 year old people who follow the U.S Gov blindly and just assume that everything is for the best, will start to develop a new Nixon era skeptism.

If I got to choose between economic life going on more-or-less as it has been indefinitely or a crash, I'd probably choose the status quo.  But that is not really the choice.  We are in my belief nearing the end of our current monetary regime, and probably the sooner the re-set button is pushed, the less overall grief will be experienced during the reboot process.

So, Ya, I'd like to see a default and system collapse during the time when Bitcoin is viable as a widely distributed non centrally managed peer2peer system, and this would coincide with the period of time when I hold chunk of BTC (because I will be liquidating my BTC position as the nature of the solution changes.)  Ultimately the reason I'd like to see the USD system collapse while I'm positioned to clean up on Bitcoin is mostly pure greed.

Definitely keen to see it burn.  8)

Anyone who voted yes doesn't even begin to realize the consequences of a default.  Trust me, you wouldn't even care what happens to BTC because it would be absolute chaos.

I agree.  But if the question becomes 'when' rather than 'if' the medicine is to be chocked down then it is legitimate to ponder.

I would expect that the chaos would/will be mitigated somewhat by martial law and a command economy here in the U.S.  My only hope is that these constructs are transitory and that the general public retains enough power to terminate both very unhappy eventualities when they are clearly no longer the least-bad course of action.

In fact Bitcoin is currently evolved to a sweet spot where it has the potential to provide a significant empowering effect which could be very useful in promoting an end to totalitarian rule should it occur.  That is a more valid reason than 'pure greed' when it comes to hoping for a 2013 default and monetary re-boot.

Why will there suddenly be no rice or gas etc... to buy? Hyperinflation you might argue would make people SPEND all their money consuming all the rice/food/etc... on shelves, but after the cat's out of the bag anybody with a brain wouldn't accept a rapidly inflating currency, and would sell his goods (which by all means he can continue to make, paying his workers in the inflating currency if possible) for a stable currency.
(Also, lol @ the fact that you entirely ignore my point by throwing around as much terminology as you can lay your hands on)

If we are going down this route:

I want this revolution to be over the United States creating a new governmental system the state needs a new governmental system
The roots needs to be purged and refreshed
As long as the military keeps the nuclear weapons out of play as a bargaining chip we can see real change by a default

Mumbles or
World War III

FU OP. Semi-Retired here, depend on that Social Security.
And I contributed for 20 years u young punx.

Just because you paid taxes does not mean you deserve welfare.

You paid SS taxes. Just like any other tax. That tax money combined with all of the other taxes to pay for Vietnam and a bunch of fun stuff that you benefitted from including welfare for the poor and for the elderly.

You are now collecting welfare, paid for by our taxes.

As for the OP, take into account how many BTC you have right now. The bottom will drop out and you will be relying upon your current Bitcoin net worth to live on. That Bitcoin will buy just about what you can buy now with Bitcoin no matter what the value of the dollar is. A loaf of bread per Bitcoin will still be worth the same loaf of bread per Bitcoin price even if Bitcoin is worth $1,000 and the bread costs $50.

The only benefit is if you are in debt. You will be able to pay off your house and other debt with a few BTC. Your income will be shit.

In before those young whipper snappers
Except that darn youngun elwar XD

I wonder if this is actually true. It seems like since 2008 the world has been gradually getting used to the idea that America is not the 'center of all things' anymore. I'm sure it would be drastic, but I wonder how drastic- after all it's not like Greece where they actually just don't have the money, but more like we were CHOOSING not to pay our bills. I think plenty of people would realise eventually we would cover our debts just a matter of time for the politicians to get it right.

I think this is the area for which it would be good for bitcoin, as at least a few years ago, we were still talking about how we wanted a money free from politicians stupidity.

Anyway, Encrypted Money Baby!

That's why the world is fucked up. Because many are willing to trade their fellow for profit.

Oh really? Hoping that some diabetic dude living in a trailer in US gets even poorer so bitcoin price will rise. What a waste of brain matter on economics and all since a 10 yr old kid can see that we have sufficient resources for everyone but egocentrically managed. Some too poor, some too rich.

Careful what you wish for and what toys you play with.

I hope it defaults now, because the alternative is a multi-year long slide into totalitarianism, complete with concentration camps.

Oh, I make no secret of wanting the US to default. However, the reason isn't because i want to see the BTC price rise.

The whole American economic and monetary model is broken. Artificially inflated by Bernakes reckless and relentless printing of billions of dollars a month. Little to no clue as to what Wall St is up to and 17.5 Trillion+ in Debt...and you want this gravy train to keep on rolling?

It has come to the point where this tincan can no longer continue being kicked down the road.

While the global financial fallout from a default would be big, complete lose of faith in the dollar isn't the be all and end all. The British Pound, and to some small degree the Euro, Yuan and Yen could all be used as viable alternatives. Regardless though, a US default is the only way we are ever going to see a change!

This event is inevitable imho. Maybe this default will be averted until February, but what happens then, raise the debt ceiling again and just continue doing that and printing more money to buy your own bonds to keep the market afloat?  Why not lobby to just completely remove it now if your so happy for the current system to continue on the way it is?

To believe that Bitcoin will one day become a powerhouse in the world of global finance and revolutionize the way the world transacts with each other, then you can't seriously believe that averting a default is the best course of action to bring about this change? Especially when the biggest opponent to BTC right now is the US!

From the sites I frequent, there has definitely been a noticeable rise in the number of Americans going 'back to basics'. Many have seen that this is coming and have become a lot more self sustainable. If your so worried about food shortages maybe this is an option you should explore?

In a post apocalyptic country, maybe those Monsanto GM crops won't be so bad after all  ;)

Well, first there isn't a fixed deadline, the 17th is just an estimation, with some safety margin. Estimations without the margins are somewhere around the 22nd, 23d, 24nd.
Second, you'd be surprised how many people will switch camps when it is about actually winning an election.

Not funny.

FTFY

wasn't bitcoin created because of big crisis's and incompetence of governments? Nothing surprising in expecting that people who invested in bitcoin wants governments to not stop their behaviour.

The difference between you and the younger generation:  the younger generation knows they will not recieve the benefit they paid for, but your generation still expects to recieve it.  How does it feel to be on the wrong end of the greatest ponzi scheme ever concocted?

Whats wrong with being reliant on a mega corporation bent on profit at all costs? Also there is certainly nothing wrong with using crops that are infertile or that you legally can't harvest the seeds from for next year without a lawsuit.

/sarcasm

I can't wait to see USA burn. The more you know about this country, the more you realize how hopelessly F***ed up it is.

What the price of bitcoin does is secondary to me.

Like 99% of Americans and the Government then?


Unless your an American, in which case you just want things to continue on the way the are. (Or so is the consensus I get from posts on here)



All aboard the gravy train, whoop whoop!!!!  ::)

On topic, I think they should default but whether right now is the time I don't know. But their debt is rising at an alarming rate and at some point you have to say "enough is enough" and actually do something about it.

It utterly amazes me how a country cant get something as simple as balancing how much it spends and how much income it gets from taxes. Sure it's done on a huge scale, but mega corporations do their accounts and seem to make profits.

Speaking of corporations making profits, its about time that the USA and other countries like the UK really get to grips with these big companies that are avoiding paying their fair share of taxes by jumping through hoops and exploiting loopholes.

Completely agree. I think a default would be a serious wake up call and the event to initiate change.

True, but most company's don't blow billions on wars and secret research and on spying on its employees, etc. Plus companys books are audited so eventually they will come unstuck. Who audits the government's books, another government department? Or a ratings agency...the same ones that told us 10,000 sub prime mortgages where AAA!

True that, while the US and UK govs need to up there game, it also has to be with help from these tax loophole country's. Good to see this today: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24542794

True that, while the US and UK govs need to up there game, it also has to be with help from these tax loophole country's. Good to see this today: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24542794
[/quote]

It's jusst a pity that it won't make a bind bit of differencce as they'll just nominate Bermuda or Cayman Islands or somewhere else with 0% rate instead.
The only thing this will do is make them think twice about it. By that i mean the corporations and other governments and durastictions. It may begin the long slow process of tightening the net.. but unless you get all countries to agree on taxation, there will always be somewhere for them to go.

+1 ecactly that

i dont hate America, its a beatiful country. but their politics really sucks

It appears that there are many assumptions going on here, and to be honest I'm not certain exactly what the consequences of a default would be, but some posts here assume that a Government default is the same as the US Dollar collapsing.

These are two very different events, with very different ramifications.

The US Government defaulting would most likely cause as huge decrease in value of the US Dollar, but that in itself is not a complete collapse of the currency. The default would cause interest rates on the US Debt to increase, probably to the point where the US would not be able to pay all its debts which would eventually result in a collapse of the dollar, since the Federal Reserve would simply print more and more currency. (they are already doing that at the rate of $800 Billion a month).

The US Dollar collapsing completely is a far more significant situation, with far reaching ramifications. If you've followed other country's currency collapse, typically they issue a new currency, with some buy back of the old currency at some % of value towards the new currency. The problem is that the US Dollar is the world trade currency, and most other FIAT currencies are valued off the US Dollar. So this would be a world affecting event, extremely bad for all countries involved. (I am certain that the world banking organization, WBO, already has plans in place for handling this situation, and I guarantee bitcoin isn't going to be part of that plan).

I believe that something like BTC, which is not controlled by any government is eventually the proper way to go. But there isn't currently, and never will be, nearly enough BTC in circulation. Not to mention that making BTC valid currency for world trade would make a lot of ppl on here insanely wealthy, which the WBO will not allow.

It's over for now
But the topic should remain open for a few months whistle
http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/10/16/us-markets-global-idINBRE96S00E20131016

High BTC prices are great and all, but the damage done to the U.S. economy could be far more damaging to my finances than any gain from bitcoin.

Debt deal talk != Debt deal

However, it is likely to be voted on tonight.

Buy more bitcoin?

pretty much this. i need some time before a US default! namely to gradually move more assets into bitcoin.

Since this would hurt many people living in the US that are part of my trust network this would hurt me too (not materialistic but when they suffer i do too).
I don't think its a fun thing to watch economies crash as we're all interconnected in one way or another.

Have to duck, to avoid being hit by the can they are kicking down the road. :)

Maybe. Unless my business closes.  :-\

+1

Let's compare how many jobs are lost worldwide if US defaults , and how many jobs are created if bitcoin goes to 1000.

I think if the bitcoin goes to 1000 many people will be selfemployed investors/devs/webdesigners and offer their service for Bitcoin on their own. I havent seen many regular fulltime jobs paid in Bitcoin so far and I think it won't change too much. How would you do proper accounting that way anyway?

And what stops them doing that now?
Who will employ them and why aren't they doing now?
Those people are already working right now , if they haven't got a job please explain me WHY would somebody hire them if bitcoin price will be 1000.

One reason per second please , don't overwhelm me

The cash increases at a rate of about 7 billion USD per month currently, credit created at Fed about 85 billion per month. Existing cash is 1200 billion USD, existing credit (M2) 10000 billion USD.
From random website http://www.data360.org/graph_group.aspx?Graph_Group_Id=1315

Cash inflation 7*12/1200 * 100 = 7%
Credit inflation 85*12/10000 * 100 = about  10.2 % (This number can not be accurately defined).

I agree that when credit expansion start to fail, printing (M0 ) will start to increase limited only by  the capacity of the literal printing presses. So price reductions over all when the credit is rejected due to risk, price increases restored after literal printing has been going on for some time, then after price inertia is exhausted, excessive price hikes. It's at least a possibility, but we also have unpredictable politicians.

Destruction of the real economy is not from an eventual default, it comes from the general fucking with the markets including interest rate, and that has been going on for a long time.

YES let the USA go bust so a handful of you fucks who have 10 coins can make a few thousand. You are assholes!

Congrats you captured the very essence of the Bitcoin Community.

i'd like to point out that Amerika has no intentions of paying off the national debt. They'll just keep on raising the debt ceiling until the end of time. See you in the quadrillions!

Ya, no nation is going to pay off their national debt and every nation has one (which should be enough to make people ponder things a little bit but does not seem to be...)  Anyone who proposes paying down the national debt, or even arresting it's growth, is either lying to your face or is clueless about how modern monetary systems work.

As for the debt ceiling in the US, it's actually a pretty clever scam.  Both political parties have basically the same desires because they are owned by basically the same entities.  But they each have separate shticks that they use to herd their respective flocks of sheep.  The debt ceiling negotiations (among other constructs) are the way they 'agree' to pay off their sponsors without making their flocks to suspicious.  It's pretty funny to watch.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States

The federally budgeted (see below) military expenditure of the United States Department of Defense for fiscal year 2010, including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, is.

Total Spending    683.7 billion

Audit of 2011 budget
Total Spending    $1.030–$1.415 trillion

Maybe, you don't know that.


That's a surprisingly naive opinion for somebody who has a masked guy with a gun as an avatar.

The USA and other fiat debt laden countries will default or collapse at some point so they might as well do it now. I would like to see this madness come to an end in my lifetime. I realize it won't be pretty, but hey - who said going cold turkey would be fun? It is however, the right thing to do. Perpetuating the mistakes of the past, passing the hot potato and kicking the can again and again is not the solution. Of course, this is exactly what will happen so enjoy living the dream while it lasts.

Yeah debt settlements never happen and the world should totally use ethical standards out of this Ayan Rand novel.