Bitcoin Forum

April:
7th - BTC rose $20
8th - BTC rose $24
9th - BTC rose $44
10th - CRASH!

October:
17th - BTC rose $6
18th - BTC rose $20
19th - Trading hasn't finished, but it's looking like another $20 day.

This rapid rise is accelerating at an unsustainable rate.  When will this bubble burst?

This time it's different ;)

The GDP of Cyprus is $23 billion.  There are about 11 million Bitcoin in circulation. So if the Bitcoin economy ever approached the scale of a small bankrupt island in the Mediterranean, each Bitcoin would be worth well over $2000.

bubble will burst at 10000$ 

Its going to burst on 20th. Time to take profit..

20, or 21st or 22nd... I'm ready to roll.

Meh just hold long term.

I hope it bursts soon and eventually stabilises at some price point like during the last few months. This volatility makes it hard to buy and sell.

There is one step Bitcoin has taken now:

 1000 ¥


the next one 200 $
then 200 €
then 200 £


For sure the most important was RMB because Chinese is the market with the biggest potential --  but in this situation it is questionable if the value will drop to lower levels again. I so then good luck for all speculators.

I sure can't answer you, but the gains (and volatility in general) really stir up the chemicals in my brain. While I know stability is good for Bitcoin in some ways, it's clear we're a long way from seeing that. Big gains make me happy for the increased value of my Bitcoins (plus I think it drives Bitcoin interest). Big crashes make me happy for the buying opportunities.

I just tried but can't even venture a guess.

??? I think you must be doing it wrong.  :P

Massive head and shoulders will crash to ~$40 in the next few days. I guarantee it*

*This prediction is intended solely for information purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell or trade in any commodities, securities, or currencies herein named. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. In no event should the content of this report be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Derpinheimer.

If you can give a guarantie then make a bet on it and you can make lots of Bitcoins: http://btclevels.com/ (http://btclevels.com/)

By your logic:

19th $24
20th $44
21th CRASH!

But dont wait till 20th, take profits now just to be sure  :)

what bubble?

This

If it bursts soon i'm going to bust a nut all up in some BTC. I mean spend money and purchase some BTC. What ev.

when DC comes to an agreement on debt ceiling and expense reduction ----- never --- meanwhile the dollar will continue to devaluate. Investment in gold is very dangerous as there are no gold to sell, it has been shorted many times over and they will continue to short it to attempt to save the world from the biggest depression one can not imagine. So BTC is the only safe investment

The rises in April were massive because the rally started around $15. In percentage terms we are nowhere near such a high rate of growth, although this is definitely unsustainable. I see a series of mini-bubbles like the past few days leading us to $200-300 by the end of the year.

you got the naming wrong. this will mark the beginning of the "Great Christmas Bubble"

No you won't, you'll search for the bottom and then get second guesses, then you buy anyway, then it drops even further and you panic sell. Then you lose money  :D

lolol i read your post then looked over at the user name but saw ur avatar instead....*eye brow raise* LOLOL perfect addition to this post xD

might burst soon...... been feeling a reversal of momentum, but maybe that's just irrational fear talking.  :)

Shouldn't we be observing the rises per day as a %, not a $ amount?

i think it's fine to talk about short-term in linear, you don't?

Its bursting, it has hit high of $160 @ btc-e.com 3 times and it drop.

I never knew bubbles could re-inflate so easily after they've been burst.

Every exchange seems to be down a bit from the [insane] high, but overall is up. Not bursting. Not unless someone dumps 10k BTC on Gox, that is...

Bitcoin bubbles are not quite bubbles. They are bitcoins filling up next market niches. Crypto_geeks > Drug_dealers > Amateur_speculators > ??

To know when the bubble burst, we need to know what niche is getting filled now and estimate it's size.

It seems that the current niche is Chinese_amateur_investors. Anybody can estimate this market's volume?

With thin asks (I think) and most of the live market data sites showing potentially out of data due to the 'socket' systems not working I really doubt this is going to happen.

I see a cup and handle on the weekly. These are notorious solid bull signals.

I see only a cup.  ???

Next target...nice round number....$1,000

Oktober 2018!!

I dont see any bubble here.. please show me where you see a bubble in the last months/weeks..

https://i.imgur.com/e2ro4rl.png

Here...
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HOQah6lu/

I agree that over the long term (as shown in your graph) it is a mere blip.  But if prices rise 21% in three days (and a maximum price change of 30%), that's got to mean something.  At the time of my original post, it showed no sign of slowing down.  Now the rise has slowed down, but it's still moving visibly upwards, unlike the usual slowly but surely rise.

If it's really a bubble, it'll take 2-4 months.

I'd contend that this period of strong growth isn't necessarily a bubble, though. Not because "this time it's different" - that's wishful thinking. More because it might level out or correct before the characteristic psychological elements of a bubble arise.

so at what general prices level or over what time frame would you say this might happen, vs. when "the characteristic psychological elements of a bubble arise"?

not a bubble...

it's a correction...

The month of Oct... made it a "LITTLE BIT MORE DECENTRALIZED"....

not that dependent on MTGOX anymore...

no longer SR... (stores are now spread)

Hopefully more decentralization... coming

It's just a warm up

i will say... the longer that we stay at this level, the more nervous i get not being 100% btc... not sure what to do!  :-\

Accept your loss (of opportunity) and think how you can do better next time.

Do NOT capitulate.  

It sucks, I'm sorry.  :-\

buy back in.   8)

everything below 1000 $ will be viewed as awfully cheap in a few years from now.

what are you talking about? capitulate? i took profits slightly above where we are and don't know if i should buy back. "do better"? do you already know what is going to happen in the future?

If you believe BTC will succeed, you should probably cut the emotion attached to the missed opportunity. It's going to be a lot harder as this thing continues to climb. Think of it as if you were brand new to bitcoin today. Would you buy some now?

As far as October's bubble: What bubble? Too much great news for real world adoption, which is what bitcoin needs to validate a value spike like this. Baidu and Softouch alone are enough for me. It's only a matter of time before other similar companies follow suit.

Long term is of no importance when you are suffering from short term.

The question is how can you reduce your short term suffering of regret that you feel now?

Buying now you have a high chance to suffer even more short term as chances for the price to correct are high.

i have cold storage and i have a short to mid-term portfolio. we're not all buy-and-holders, and for those of us that are, i dont miss opportunity to increase my wealth. 20-30% on that news? i dunno.

euuuuuhhm

Wauw, I'm speechless.

Guess you are looking for a different response.

Can't help you with that.


Here my opinion.

It really does not matter what your past transactions are.

The question is: is it wise to buy now? Long term, likely yes. Short term, likely no.

We cannot know the future, we can only estimate probabilities and act accordingly.

that was actually exactly the type of response i was looking for.  :)

People were asking these questions back in January as the price zoomed toward $20.

"Oh look, it's overbought, better take profits."

"Oh oh, it's up so high, it'll really crash hard from $22."

Yeah it crashed hard...to $50, from $266.

I've said it time and again: if you think you're such an amazing trader that you can do better than the 1000% annual gain of just buying and holding, be my guest.

IMO price won't crash before we test the 200$ walls, which will probably happen the next 2 - 3 days, if volume is good.
If volume stays low, we can linger at this level for a while, maybe drop a bit. After the peak it may take another 4 - 6 days till we crash.

Well, I think some people, due to limited capital want to maximize gains now in bitcoin so that they can realize those year over year gains down the road. But also, how long can we sustain those kind of annual gains, do you think?

just a few more years.

Early adoption phase is out and 1000+% annual rise is history, and yes I am better trading than just holding since I joined 4 months ago  ;)

the company behind angry birds has a 5x bigger market cap than bitcoin & all they do is angry birds. we are at the beginning of early in early adoption phase.

Good joke  :D

Until like 1% of the world's wealth is in BTC. So several more years. We aren't even close.

this isn't a bubble, but a permanent rise, this is the start of Bitcoin rise

Bought all in at 194 so prepare for a sharp and violent decline anytime from now and 20 minutes from now.

Ofc it is a bubble :D, people are in "euphoric" state at the moment.

I wonder why

if Wobber buys more == price decline

and not

if price decline == Wobber buys more

And there are "more euphoric" and "more and more euphoric", "extremely euphoric", "deadly euphoric" state later on...

When will October's bubble burst?

November.

But it is fun to watch. A lot of bot action, then the real trades in small amounts. Then the 25, 50, 100 trades to shift it up or down a dollar in one go.

I have too agree that this is so fun and exciting I was jumping around the house. And my gf asked if I have a date or something...

If I had to guess, I'd say around the $200 mark

Im no expert, but couldnt the fact that a new market is entering bitcoin (china) mean that the hike upwards now is almost like a correction?

LOL. I feel ya' brother

i think i´m plagued by the same disease  :'(

I am sat biting my nails wondering whether to sell now and wipe out some £££ debt or whether to hold and see if it continues to rise. I remember being in this same situation earlier in the year with the last big rise and it burst just as I was about to pull the trigger...

Dude, think seriously. With debd you're on minus. It's better a thousand times to be at 0 and have nothing.

Debt the chain every man should struggle to break. Then you can go back gathering, hunting or whatever our ancestors did.

I hate debt.

Well, then I am selling - but wait...then it will go to 1000!  :P

Im not trader, but is there chance it is not a bubble, but just china increase of Bitcoin demand? I hope so

Just work in steps and you will have less regrets. Sell some, keep some.

Its going to go burst soon, i can feel it. Everyone sell all ur bitcoins.

methinks it's good to have debt. As long as your wealth exceeds it. As long as you don't take more debt than you have weath you're technically above 0

We're due a correction as bitcoins is looking a little overbought in the short term. But this is no were near a bubble yet. Does feel like it has potential to go back into bubble territory though..

As Robert Kiosaki says, theres good debt and bad debt.

If you go into debt to buy a new car or tv or something that is bad debt.
If you go into debt to buy investments which yield more than the interest on the debt, that is good debt

What if you go into debt to play at a mtgox/bitstamp casino?

This would make sense if the buyer waits for the end of the crash (after the peak) to buy.
Buying now with money that one can't afford to lose is crazy IMO.

Your yield is negative, so its a bad debt :)

exactly why I stop trading and become a buy and hold bitcoiner.. im very long in BTC, dont plan to sell more than 20% at 1000$ !

Sorry, but Bitcoin is still risky, don't tell someone he/she should get a loan to buy BTC. That's still verry stupid. Just buy BTC with money you are willing to loose...

I love how easily everyone falls for psychological digit barriers and is unable to think in log scale.

The $32 bubble, well, price went up over 1000%. It crashed to below where it started. And after a while we recovered and now $32 is ancient history.
The $13-$266, well, price went up over 1000%. And we never even hit the start point during the crash! Heck, we stayed almost 400% above the start point at all times! And now, not even a year later, all but the folks who bought in at the very top are seeing gains. What a bubble.

Now we've gone up, what, 40% from pre-SR-news price... and everyone's convinced that this is the worst possible time to buy into the "bubble" and it must end soon... will pop as soon as it gets over $200..

It might end right after we cross $200. But then again, we may just see another 1000%. Don't underestimate the market (or overestimate, for that matter.) Remember when a whole bunch of people were convinced $29 was the top in early 2013... 

This debt is for a loan for home improvements, I had the choice of paying part of it off or investing it in BTC. So far the BTC investment is paying off nicely as I'm up about 100% at the moment :) Now I'm at the point where I could cash in and clear off that fiat debt, or hold and see if I can pay off that and a chunk of mortgage as I'm aiming to be mortgage free within 5 years, currently at 10 years left.

You know Tesla? Great company, great products, but this can happen every day also to bitcoin:

https://oilprice.com/images/tinymce/James%203/AE2724.png

That's very optimistic, I like you're thinking if serious.

Whenever we get near 200 its like the ghost of the flash crash is up there lurking and creating this panicky crash energy where a whole bunch of asks show up and bids are hit hard and deep. This is twice that gox and btce have dropped 15 in the bat of an eye (bit stamp 10). I fear its only going to going to get worse as we go higher. And this is without any whales even capitulating. How do you guys handle this with your nerves or get any sleep? I've tried shorting these movements a few times only to lose tiny fractions of my position and waste an entire weekend. But the one time I don't bother will probably be when the whales finally capitulate.

This market historically has seen around 1000% per year increase.  Do you really think you're a good enough trader to beat 1000% a year?

There isnt enough depth to market sell. Unless something bad happens [not just "omg booobblee"], it shouldnt drop to sharply without a rebound.

I mean, 10k sell brings price down $20. 20k, $43; 30k, $60.

You'd need some real panic for people to sell in that kind of depth. If you see an ask wall, then panic :P


Hm, no. But do I think bitcoin will grow 1000% a year? No.

I took in the first stake I wanted and could afford to lose altogether.  There is no going in and out for me.  It's all the way to the top or bottom.  The more events Bitcoin survives, e.g. SR, and the longer it goes without serious flaws being detected the happier I am.  Eventually I will bring in my second stake.  One day I really should get around to buying something with Bitcoin.  Hmm, I know, I'll give them to my wife; she's much better at spending than I am.

I made almost 1000% during the two weeks of the April crash alone. A better trader probably could have made 10,000% It would torture to have been stuck in a position from 266 waiting an entire 6 months or a year just for the price recover to where I was at instead of being able to trade the massive volatility.

Congratz for that! I bought, and hold hold hold da bitcoins, and bought and started mining. With the price increase the mining is hopefully turning out a nice ROI.....i bought my btc at an average of 65$ and i'll keep em as long as i could.....

I don't see it going much past 300 again before another epic burst. sorry everybody

i agree, i think we'll lose steam before then even, but we'll see! still all in obviously...... just not sleeping anymore in case of crash.

So...sell at $1250...gotcha.

Guys we need solutions for this sleep issue. It isn't healthy. Like phone apps with alarms that aware us when certain TA indicators are met and exchanges with advanced type of orders like stop loss / trailing stop loss. Maybe someone has written a bot that can detect and sell a crash?

I think the problem is that Chinese bitcoin speculators didn't get bit hard by the last two bubble bursts so they can run this up who knows how high before it pops.  It will eventually pop because there's no sane reason for it to constantly be going up other than that people see the price going up and are thus buying lots of bitcoins to try and ride it up.  Who knows how long this will run but I'm more curious where it'll end up.
I'm pretty sad though since I got rid of most of my holdings a while back to buy something in bitcoin and now I've apparently paid 50% more in fiat.  =(

seriously, i find it crazy that i can't put stop losses

Oh god, imagine a 2011-style bubble in China. Bigger and faster than the 2013 bubble (which is now looking more like an exponential upward correction).

bitfinex.com

cavirtex.com

One good thing about the run-up, and very important, is that it puts Bitcoin into the mainstream media spotlight once again.

Whether it rises or falls, if you are still holding your coins you have lost or gained nothing.  Just numbers on a screen you are looking at.  It is only when you exchange them for goods or services or another currency that any real profit or loss takes place.

Do you think the run-up/niche filling came to an end, stabilizing now?

Or are we experiencing the fist signs of a bubble popping?

I'm curious, please elaborate: how could one have traded two weeks within April to gain 10,000 %? ;)

Chinese investors have a big amount of money, I think this time the rally will last for a long term, months..., ha?

Could you please supply further information?

By trading very short-term waves very skillfully.

I leave you with this:

https://i.imgur.com/mBjGugm.jpg

And this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onMq0NHEEpo

Of course for the 10,000% it would probably have to be a small player starting with 20btc or less to have enough liquidity to make all of the trades.

You understand that 10,000% means that for every 1 bitcoin you started out with in the beginning of that two week period, you ended up with the equivalent of 100 BTC (USD equiv)? 

I doubt that you did this and I doubt it was possible.

Read again. I only said I made 1,000%, and that it might have been possible for someone else (superman) to make 10,000%

The shape now looks (to my untrained eye) quite similar to the crash
shape in april.

Misread. Sorry.

IMO even Superman couldn't have made 10,000%, but maybe 2,000%. There just weren't enough profit points to take
advantage of without massive risks. But congratulations on your 10x win, that's my desired target for the next big crash, I'll train for it.
However, I now tend to believe we won't have now such a big crash, at least not on Gox. Maybe China will drop harder, but still not like in April.

I know traders posses skills and knowledge that I do not. But I also know there's some randomness in the mix. How much of trading success is due to skill vs. randomness? I think statistics dictates that if there are 1,000 traders of equal skill, a small percentage will do extremely well, simply due to being on the extreme edge of a probability curve -- in other words, some of those who look like geniuses will really just have benefitted from luck. So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck? And how does one know the trading tactics that worked well before will work again, when a much larger set of skilled traders may now be competing with them?

I'm long BTC, and while I buy on dips, I have yet to sell to take profits. I assume I might sell a portion of BTC at some level, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable to actively trade.

You don't know... until your luck runs out.

Learn by doing.

According to every serious study that has been done on this topic: there is no such thing as skill - just illusions created by our inability to understand randomness accurately.

The only way to consistently beat the market is to cheat.

Serious references, please.

So are you cheating when you buy BTC which outperforms the S&P 500?

answer to OP: right now :D

Wow. No kidding. POP.

Don't count your horses before they're hatched. This doesn't look like a reversal of the market; more likely it's a single trader dumping their half-a-million bucks worth of BTC. That could be the trigger for a correction, but it's also possible that limit orders will start filling in and we see a recovery.

Keep your eye on the ball. The next few hours might get pretty interesting.

damn how can I sleep now there is a chance to cheap coins before I wake up in the morning

A single trader dumping on btcchina gox and bitstamp at the same time?

someone is trying to tank the market. not so easy these days.

ya or someone trying to hold up the market....!

What would be the best LIVE graph or stats to watch as this all unfolds? :) as far as i know i just keep hitting refresh on mt.gox or look at my chrome widget. I am sure there is a better option?

I like http://www.bitcoinity.org/markets/mtgox/USD.

perfect and very easy on the eyes! Thanks a mucho :)

rtbtc.com  has the best Real time stats that I know of.  However, It does requires a small fee to use.
Cheers

Somebody is heavily playing the market (or trying tot do so, at least :) ). Deliberately putting large sale offers for much lower ask prices than current bids.

Too bad I didn't have a shitload of cash ready at the exchanges. Would have loved to pick up a huge stack of coins at these prices!
 

oh my god it crashed to 136  :o

eh.. wait...  to 136 € ?

lol

My guess is he meant that those who have performed well (managing mutual funds and hedge funds) benefitted from trading on illegal inside information (hence, cheating). I also think there's a difference between being long BTC (as I am, and that's how I read your statement) and actively trading in-and-out on trends.

Wish I was awake last night, I probably would have bought some BTC on Coinbase (since Dwolla shut to BTC, I haven't funded any exchange accounts to place limit orders). I'm not a trader, but being long BTC, I will buy on what appear to be dips.

That is an invalid comparison. You are comparing total volume traded (gdp) with total monetary supply. You should instead focus on the monetary supply in Cyprus compared to the 11 million bitcoins, or find the total transactional volume of bitcoins and compare that to the GDP.

Back on topic: I do not think this is a bubble, just like we were not in a bubble when we hit 25 earlier this year. We are just in the next step up in price.

Which "bubble" is the OP refering to here?

The Oct 2013 bubble to $200
The Oct 2014 bubble to $800
The Oct 2016 bubble to $10K
or the Oct 2020 bubble to $1M

can you be more precise in the question?

This low volume is boring me to death.
Drum rolls for phase 3.  ;)

will dripped down in the next few days or may go down pretty quick, just a matter of days.

STOP POPPING THIS BUBBLE WHEN I AM SLEEPING!!!  Lemme buy some popped bubbles ehhhh???   :-*

Phase 3 of the drop started, as predicted, but has yet not gained momentum.
Low volume, due to low seller pressure. Phase 3 could take another day at this rate. And then we go up again.

I'm getting the impression someone is needing to offload about 100,000btc and is doing it somewhat carefully.

If someone would want to sell 100k we'd see a huge drop. This is just normal market behavior, with rather low seller pressure (for now, it may pick up). 

There are groups of people trying to spook the market.   They sell in increments of btc and someone else buys it up, then it spooks the rest of the market into selling more.  Like a snowball running down a hill.  Then that person uses this cash to buy up the btc at a far lower price.   They are doing to this to make significant profit fast.

Not sure if the market is big enough for that. Finally it works only if the snowball starts rolling else they just loose money. And the Bitcoin seems to be quite stabil even after news like Silkroad shutdown.

Since the rise was quite fast, there is room for a drop. I believe we are in a mid-trend Fibonacci correction mode, which should take us to revisit $150-$155 before 7 days have passed. Once this is consummated, we will take the old ATH.

The moving averages are now higher than ever. The April top of $266 was so sharp that the exact figure does not matter too much. The current hurdle is for overcoming the ATH.

After clearing it, I would not be surprised to see a double to $500 before the next small correction. At any rate, our think tank estimate is that Bitcoin will reach $2000 in maximum 8 months.

Any correction less than 35% can be a mid-move shakeout. Never sell low. I exhort to just buy and not sell, until you can drop from work and start living with your bitcoins.

Well that sure would be nice! If that happens, I'll be sure to come back to note and praise the accuracy of your optimistic prediction!

My own analysis (e.g. drawing a line on a log chart based off historical numbers) resulted in $1400, 1 year from today. I like your optimism though :)

I would be interested in mathematical formulae/methods used or generated by this think tank.

This isn't a bubble, just a increase in price...

The bubble will burst when people realize this --  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=318046.0

Bitcoin is not currency or money!

Sounds great. :) We are hoping to pick up a few more coins in the next week hopefully but would love to buy at $150 or even $160.  Sounds high now but I guess that it might be a great price in the big scheme of things.

I love all your posts BTW! You have such great insight and seem to be able to remove emotion and have a logical and methodical outlook on it all.

I haven't made my mind yet. I am not early adaptor type, but when I buy, I buy big :)