When will October's bubble burst?

[Sitarow]

seriously, i find it crazy that i can't put stop losses

bitfinex.com

cavirtex.com

[Johnny Bitcoinseed]

One good thing about the run-up, and very important, is that it puts Bitcoin into the mainstream media spotlight once again.

Whether it rises or falls, if you are still holding your coins you have lost or gained nothing.  Just numbers on a screen you are looking at.  It is only when you exchange them for goods or services or another currency that any real profit or loss takes place.

[bnjmnkent]

Do you think the run-up/niche filling came to an end, stabilizing now?

[wobber]

Do you think the run-up/niche filling came to an end, stabilizing now?

Or are we experiencing the fist signs of a bubble popping?

[dexX7]

I made almost 1000% during the two weeks of the April crash alone. A better trader probably could have made 10,000%.

I'm curious, please elaborate: how could one have traded two weeks within April to gain 10,000 %?

[viboracecata]

Chinese investors have a big amount of money, I think this time the rally will last for a long term, months..., ha?

[bnjmnkent]

Could you please supply further information?

[TERA]

I made almost 1000% during the two weeks of the April crash alone. A better trader probably could have made 10,000%.

I'm curious, please elaborate: how could one have traded two weeks within April to gain 10,000 %?

By trading very short-term waves very skillfully.

I leave you with this:



And this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onMq0NHEEpo

Of course for the 10,000% it would probably have to be a small player starting with 20btc or less to have enough liquidity to make all of the trades.

[windjc]

You understand that 10,000% means that for every 1 bitcoin you started out with in the beginning of that two week period, you ended up with the equivalent of 100 BTC (USD equiv)? 

I doubt that you did this and I doubt it was possible.

[TERA]

You understand that 10,000% means that for every 1 bitcoin you started out with in the beginning of that two week period, you ended up with the equivalent of 100 BTC (USD equiv)?  

I doubt that you did this and I doubt it was possible.

Read again. I only said I made 1,000%, and that it might have been possible for someone else (superman) to make 10,000%

[bnjmnkent]

The shape now looks (to my untrained eye) quite similar to the crash
shape in april.

[windjc]

The shape now looks (to my untrained eye) quite similar to the crash
shape in april.

Misread. Sorry.

[Tzupy]

You understand that 10,000% means that for every 1 bitcoin you started out with in the beginning of that two week period, you ended up with the equivalent of 100 BTC (USD equiv)?  

I doubt that you did this and I doubt it was possible.

Read again. I only said I made 1,000%, and that it might have been possible for someone else (superman) to make 10,000%

IMO even Superman couldn't have made 10,000%, but maybe 2,000%. There just weren't enough profit points to take
advantage of without massive risks. But congratulations on your 10x win, that's my desired target for the next big crash, I'll train for it.
However, I now tend to believe we won't have now such a big crash, at least not on Gox. Maybe China will drop harder, but still not like in April.

[BitPappa]

I know traders posses skills and knowledge that I do not. But I also know there's some randomness in the mix. How much of trading success is due to skill vs. randomness? I think statistics dictates that if there are 1,000 traders of equal skill, a small percentage will do extremely well, simply due to being on the extreme edge of a probability curve -- in other words, some of those who look like geniuses will really just have benefitted from luck. So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck? And how does one know the trading tactics that worked well before will work again, when a much larger set of skilled traders may now be competing with them?

I'm long BTC, and while I buy on dips, I have yet to sell to take profits. I assume I might sell a portion of BTC at some level, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable to actively trade.

[notme]

I know traders posses skills and knowledge that I do not. But I also know there's some randomness in the mix. How much of trading success is due to skill vs. randomness? I think statistics dictates that if there are 1,000 traders of equal skill, a small percentage will do extremely well, simply due to being on the extreme edge of a probability curve -- in other words, some of those who look like geniuses will really just have benefitted from luck. So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck? And how does one know the trading tactics that worked well before will work again, when a much larger set of skilled traders may now be competing with them?

I'm long BTC, and while I buy on dips, I have yet to sell to take profits. I assume I might sell a portion of BTC at some level, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable to actively trade.

You don't know... until your luck runs out.

[bnjmnkent]

I know traders posses skills and knowledge that I do not. But I also know there's some randomness in the mix. How much of trading success is due to skill vs. randomness? I think statistics dictates that if there are 1,000 traders of equal skill, a small percentage will do extremely well, simply due to being on the extreme edge of a probability curve -- in other words, some of those who look like geniuses will really just have benefitted from luck. So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck? And how does one know the trading tactics that worked well before will work again, when a much larger set of skilled traders may now be competing with them?

I'm long BTC, and while I buy on dips, I have yet to sell to take profits. I assume I might sell a portion of BTC at some level, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable to actively trade.

Learn by doing.

[justusranvier]

So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck?

According to every serious study that has been done on this topic: there is no such thing as skill - just illusions created by our inability to understand randomness accurately.

The only way to consistently beat the market is to cheat.

[bnjmnkent]

Serious references, please.

[theonewhowaskazu]

So how does one know if a trader's success is due superior skill or just plain old luck?

According to every serious study that has been done on this topic: there is no such thing as skill - just illusions created by our inability to understand randomness accurately.

The only way to consistently beat the market is to cheat.

So are you cheating when you buy BTC which outperforms the S&P 500?

[Xiaoma]

answer to OP: right now