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I have collected data about ICOs and their number of Telegram channel members to check if there is a dependency between high members number and high ICO ROI. The short answer is no!

The more details are here: https://medium.com/@MLJARofficial/how-does-telegram-members-count-impact-the-ico-investment-returns-50f37aff27ee

One of the best criteria to check whether the ICO is good or not or will offer higher return or not is through bumping on their Telegram Channels because I do believe that good ICOs have always good social communities especially telegram community as this year's basic social community is telegram group where everyone are discussing everything related or non related to ICOs and Crypto projects.

There is no need to conduct an analysis to see the lack of correlation between the number of subscribers and ICO-ROI. A large number of subscribers can appear for the following reasons:
a) large investments in marketing;
b) bounty-campaign;
c) cheating

So, do not pay attention to this indicator.

Thanks for response! What are the factors that are important for ICO-ROI in your opinion?

I'm working on Machine Learning algorithm for prediction ICO ROI based on data. https://medium.com/@MLJARofficial/predicting-ico-returns-with-machine-learning-af6108ab9e39 That's why I'm checking different factors.

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I think the success of an ICO is proportional to the activity of the telegram group.
The larger the number means that the ICO project has attracted more attention, and the more likely it is to succeed.

The larger the telegram user count with only legit or real accounts is the sign of a good ICO. So just telegram user counts doesn't matter. Quality is what matters. Some projects also use fake telegram followers to gain huge user base.

more member at telegram channel an ico is not a good indicator or success of a project. but there we can see and conclude investor interest or enthusiasm for the project. we can also assess the developer's experience and understanding of the projects they will create.

Correct, more members of telegram group does not mean a better ROI. Some ICO had done an airdrop that required you to join their telegram to build a community. Thus they have more members compared to ICO that did not had an airdrop.

I have seen more successful ICO that have less than 10k members in telegram group and have better ROI compared to those ICO with 20k up members.

I do use this criteria before but when you really watch carefully there Telegram you can see that something wrong with it. Half of it are people who joined cause of Bounty Hunting and Airdrop that make it wrong for the criteria. You cant also tell if their community is active because some of requirements of their program needed to be active there.

You did have the answer. It is just a telegram group and maybe people just want some updates about that token or they are holding a little amount only. It could also be fake accounts that makes it large in number.
You cannot tell if they are large investors or not.
Even with just 500 members, one ICO could go way up high if that is full of rich people. Also consider the service of one ICO and how they market they token.

I have seen a lot of telegram channel with thousands of people where nobody was sying anything clever about the project or anything at all, so your findings are not exactly surprising, nice read anyway  :)

A lot of great ICOs had no telegram channel at all. The huge channels on telegram are a recent movement from slack (after the big hack attaks via emails) to telegram and now the majority are moving to discord because of the more options of chat contact; Telegram or any other channel is not a proof, not even an indicator, of a succefull project. Always remember that telegram managers are paid employees pretending to be team members.
Otherwise, if i make a telegram channel full of plenty subscribers, can i make a succefull ICO?  Of course not.

Telegram has many members who are attracted by the way of airdrops!

The Telegram people don't necessarily care about the ico project, only interested in the airdrop!

Nowadays many people in the market are unwilling to invest in ico, so they participate in all kinds of airdrops!

Social Media definitely plays a large role in how ICOs are viewed but it isn't the end all. Companies can allocate time and money to getting their numbers up in social media but it makes just as much sense to dedicate the resources to product development and implementation.

That's really good man. Machine learning definitely has a very good scope in future.
Higher number if Telegram subscribers doesn't necessarily mean that the ICO ROI will be higher. Any channel can get more number of subscribers by advertising it on social media and various forums. So it dose not mean that every person will be investing in their ICO. There will be hardly a few members who will be willing to invest in their ICO .
I believe advertising on various platforms might, running campaigns can gain attention towards the ICO. A good project will definitely gain more followers if they workout in their project accordingly.

Absolutely no, I have seen many ICO that were successful even though they have few people in the telegram group, and what's astonishing is that some of them raised their funds quite well reaching their hardcap. On the other hand there alao ICo that are less successful and even they have bunch of people in their group. What's worst is they run after the funds was raised and leaving no trace where they have gone.

Almost every ICO that has large member base has done a "Airdrop" which required to join the Telegram channel, so that does not mean it's popular or it will give a good ROI, sometimes it can be the opposite, because as soon as that ICO hit the exchangers almost all the airdrop participants start to Dump tokens and high chance of seeing a RED market for that token.

 But sometimes you can see some ICO is a good one from the activity level of the members and specially Admins, if the group has a lot of members and also very active in the community there is a chance that particular ICO has a dedicated member base, and their vision is somehow trusted by the members. That could be one of the good ways , not just to check the numbers, but also Activity level.

Community is one thing to check if the ICO is good, but mostly telegram is filled with a lot of members is because some campaigns require the participants to join telegram group. So i'd say, it's best to read the white paper, check on the team and see to it if its worth investing or not and not just depend on telegram.

I agreed that the numbers of members in telegram  doesn’t mean better ROI of the project. It is better to join the telegram and interact with the community to see how strong the support is.

the number of members of a telegram group of any ICO is an addition to a better outcome.
huge number of followers or members are attractive especially to investors.
the more numbers you get the busy the channel which is the best to have in any marketing strategy.
we've seen a lot of ICO and it is really better to have tons of people in your group.

about ICO (Initial Coin Offering)? It is a process of creating new cryptocurrency, mainly to fund a new company or project. People that participate in ICOs are doing this because of two reasons: they are fascinated with new technology that new project will develop they hope that they invest in ‘next bitcoin’ cryptocurrency, which of course means huge returns on investment I’m not sure which from these two reasons are the most important, maybe mix of them: tech & money :) Anyway, investing in ICO can be very exciting!
Nowadays, there are tons of ICOs. How to select the ICO that will give good return on investment? This is the question, that many is asking. Of course, our favourite way is data-driven! Recently, I wrote the article how machine learning can be used to predict potential ICO returns. In this post and next articles I would like to examine what are the main factors that make ICO an attractive for investor

I like this project, I think that it is worthy of investing, but for now it is better to observe how they assemble the software cap. I think that this will reduce the risks.

No, not at all.
Nowadays, there are so many ways to pump telegram members in your channel that it is starting to become useless.

Really, you should be seeing what type of activity is on the channel.
Are people asking genuine questions and getting genuine answers?
Are devs and admins responsive?
Is the sentiment positive?
Are comment strangely overly positive or negative?

This is also a weird measuring stick but works: Are there a lot of people trying to scam people?
Scammers target high profile icos so the more scammer attention the more hype it has.

If you are looking for a quick flip, you should be joining the social media tools and jumping in on it too.
Hype has a way of snowballing and instead of just passively watching, you should be doing your part to ensure the ico is successful.
Joining their bounty campaign is an easy way to do this and combine better ROI.

Not true, because there are some icos whose has an airdrop system like referal.
So this will pump the number of the group member just because they want free money, and not often people will have 3 or more telegrams for getting airdrop tokens

I do not think you can use that directly to evaluate the success of any ICO because when you look closely you will understand the reason why many ICO have a high member on telegram group, is because of two things. firstly, maybe the ico has bounty which makes it compulsory for participants to join their telegram page of the ICO. secondly, maybe a certain percentage of the bounty is allocated to telegram page so many of the bounty participant will like to participate by joining the telegram page of the ICO

This is very alarming now, the number of members in telegram group of some ICO are not all investors,
More than 50% of them are just there because of the Airdrop requirements.
Some of those too are bounty hunters, they are just requiring participants to join the ICO group.
Because investors seeing telegram group is the big impact of ICO success.

I have to agree with you on this because there are some ICOs which have a lot of people following their telegram channels just because it is a requirement to participate in airdrops and also in signature and bounty campaings  and a lot of these people are not even ready to invest in the coin they just want some free coins so I don't think the number of people that project has on telegram is a determinant of the success of the project

Not only that, some people (belonging to the team or not) just mass invite random telegram members by the thousands.
No wonder you have 40K members with only 15 people chatting on a regular basis.