Bitcoin Forum

This is why i am not buying now,

This is why I'm not buying now,

I have no USD.

Same here. I sold some last night and scooped up a couple coins in profit on the last dip down, but now I'm a little uneasy selling... not sure if we're going down anymore.

gentleman, gentleman, i have bitcoins.......... however this is the reason why i am not buying more bitcoins at this price point, and i am therefore bearish

so.. G was 266 with the majority of the interest due to the crisis in the EU and Cypriot bail-in.

and A has a price value 300+ with relatively calm markets comparatively.

I would infer that with less interest the value has risen.. and could therefore continue to rise as less people are searching google for a how-to...hell I've been googling it to show my friends the intro to Bitcoin video cause I don't favorite things for quick linking.

This is typical sentiment of a 5th wave. Momentum is beginning to dwindle and divergences are appearing in underlying indicators. This is also the point where the average investor begins buying.

It's good being a bear! Only a bear can increase holdings without any extra investment.

Yeah wave 5 most likely on the way once this downtrend/sideways movement ends.  Only a matter of time i.e. Monday/Tuesday lol.

Or, a leveraged bull.
[Insert fun image here]

lol
thats cool, passives bear, maybe you'll sell us some cheap bitcoin next week  

but the your TA... your doing it wrong  :P

Isn't the last point in the Google trends chart updated as the current week/month/whatever passes? That would mean it will keep going up till it closes and a new point is created.

BTC will eventually fail and go to $0...  There's my bearish input.

But until then, good luck trading when you wait till btc is at its "true value". You will not make many trades and might even wait forever. It might very well never go below 300 again. There seems to be a nice support here. We just broke ATH and the bubble has only just begun.

Thanks for showing me, I value your post but also i wanted to add, i searched google trends for leather pants and wow Australia has the hugest interest, now i need to target my website to them.  Glad I found that google trends :D

Good post with substantial reasoning behind your actions unlike some of the posts that have no reasoning at all.

Not sure I catch your reason 2 -- but BTCChina went hyperbolic on Saturday morning here. Crazy buying frenzy, increasing by hundreds every few minutes. It definitely *looked* like a top. It will be hard to revisit those levels of frenzy for a while.

I'd say the market is looking a little unclear at the moment. I've been selling slowly all the way up, selling the last during the hyperbolic rise. I'll go back in if we can hold steady for a while, but that's far from guaranteed. I'd be very happy to see a more significant dip.

I imagine there are many others sitting on the sidelines, so bids may be depressed. But there aren't many sellers stepping up either....

Ok then


Was that your bullish input? ;D

If you are really bearish, why not sell all those bitcoins you have... How come?
Maybe, you just don't know - as most of us?  ;)

Selling all your bitcoins doesn;t indicate you as being bearish, it indicates you as being a retard,

One never sells all his bitcoins, even if one has ultra bear views - Fact

However not buying more bitcoins due to exageratted prices is intelligent, and slightly bearish

There is no real value, single digits within 5 business days.

A bad news hitting CCTV would cause all the Chinese holders to panic sell, i assure you. You would be surprised how the price would drop by 90% in a single day, but before that happens, we still have a chance of testing 400 or even 500.

Even if "BTC will eventually fail and go to $0"? ;D
I for one second this stance, though it doesn't imply we should not take a chance... 8)

I don't agree with this graph.  First of all, this graph does not include china, and as we all know they are leading this rally.  Second, its only gone down 2 points, which agrees with they price dropping slightly.  Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm not buying this argument.

back to 368 on gox. someone is still buying.

So when according to you should be the best time to get hold of 4-5BTC. Around Christmas? Many people may sell their's at that time.

Bingo!

The FBI has already seized enough bitcoin to crash the market whenever they choose. Once they do, they'll follow up with a flood of news stories about terrorists funding their operations using bitcoin, then we'll get crippling regulations a few days later. That will crash the exchange rate down to sub $1 levels, and they will never recover.

Bearish enough?

It would be so unbelievably difficult to undo what's being built around the world pertaining to this technology.....
The longer we go with governments and banks doing nothing, the stronger the infrastructure is getting.
The stronger the infrastructure gets the less chance BTC will ever hit zero.
The more viral BTC goes the less chance BTC will ever hit zero.
The more businesses accepting BTC ... the chances of BTC hitting $0 become *zero*.
I honestly can't even think of what would have to happen on a global scale that could make BTC drop to $0.
Maybe nuclear war ...
Therefore, statements like the above one, don't seem to reflect an awareness of reality to me anymore.

Okay I get that, but alright I may sound dumb, what do bears and bulls metaphors mean ? Im not from western culture so anybody care to explain please.

bull is someone who thinks the price will rise
bear is someone who thinks the price will fall

Okay something like the "Raging Bull" and the "Lazy Bear" right

No government will allow Bitcoin to compete with its local currency

Check out the votes of people in this thread I just created on how many of them would sell BTC around Christmas. See results.

It is easy to remember. Bulls attack with their horns upwards into the air, while a bear would crush with its paw downwards. So if the trend is up, this is considered metaphorically a bull market. If the trend is down, it is a bear market

Chart does not matter. China does not use Google, they use Baidu.

500 by Friday!

This is why I am not buying: I make bitcoins the old fashioned way:

I MINE THEM!

:-)

That is exactly why Bitcoin was designed as a decentralized P2P protocol, with no single entity responsible for it's ongoing operation.

Of course governments will try to kill it. The US will try to regulate it to death, while some other countries might try to make it illegal. But the effect will be the same, Bitcoin will go on and be difficult/impossible to shutdown.

It was belief in this strength that drove interest from the early adoptors. At some point this property will be tested and it will be interesting to watch.

Governments currently are allowing Bitcoin to compete with their local currency. It seems there's something of a stand off going on - governments are aware of Bitcoin, and you would expect their immediate reaction might be to try to ban its use. Unfortunately for them, they only have jurisdiction over their own territory, and Bitcoin is a global currency. So if, say, America were to ban the use of Bitcoin, there's nothing to say China wouldn't simply continue to encourage adoption. At this point, all BTC related business would move to China, leaving the U.S. behind as the rest of the world reaped the benefits of this new technology.

Not true, Thailand apposes bitcoin, and we don;t know the reaction of the chinese government towards it if it blows out of proportion, as bitcoin most certainly does not suit the fundamentals of chinese communist ideology

Don;t get me wrong, this isn't a worry for us in western democratic states, however one anti bitcoin sentence from the chinese government will cause a collossal crash, just so we can buy it all up ;)

 i don;t think anyone can disagree that if the chineese government does accept bitcoin, they will most certainly want to be to regulating the exchanges, this will also cause a crash, so now is not the time to buy folks, let the chineese have their fun for the meantime, and lets swoop in later
thats all

If they are worthless, there is no harm in holding them. The transaction costs would be too high to actually sell them.

I'm talking about an unforseen  unrecoverable technical failure involving the protocol, the internet, cryptography, etc

The China/America thing was only to illustrate a point. You also have Europe, Russia, Africa, South America to consider - Basically all it takes is one country to say, 'fuck it, we love Bitcoin - do as you please' and they become the hub of all Bitcoin activity overnight. Then the fact that Bitcoin will still be functional in every other country means that there will probably still be people in those countries using it regardless of legality (as is observed with the prohibition of cannabis, for example)

A competing cryptocurrency that takes the good of Bitcoin and potentially none of the bad would cripple Bitcoin.
I think this technology is the way of the future, but Bitcoin may not necessarily be the one.

I agree with you completely, however right now its china who are bitcoin bonkers, thats why i am talking about them, they almost have a kamikaze view on buying bitcoin

No need for nuclear war : a severe enough Internet failure could be enough.

http://i41.tinypic.com/29powus.jpg

Search indexes are, and always have been a cumulative trailing index of price. That is to say, totally worthless for predicting future price movements. As you can see when you zoom up on the graph, searches for bitcoin in China didn't spike fully until June 2013, well after the April bubble.

Think of the chart as how many people learned about bitcoin on a given day. Once you know, you don't need to google bitcoin anymore. So, since April, we should assume that every spike on this chart combined are potential buyers right now.

If I was to buy an investment, and read about it several months ago, I would go and re-read about it before investing.

Ok, but i'm not surprised they only found out about it after the bubble, other wise we would probably never have crashed as bad as we did! secondly were there reliable chineese exchanges? i doubt it

I agree it can't predict future price movements, however it can indicate hype and a bubble, which was always my point, based on that point you can predict what happens once the hype is over, this is not too say bitcoin will go to zero, however it does say that bitcoin will be at a lower price point to what it is at the moment, especially with a 200 dollar increase in ten days due solely to the chineese. Now based on the last hype the price did infact bottom out at a much higher price point after the hype which is probably what will happen this time round, and that is probably how bitcoin will make its way to $1000 +, through these cyclical bubbles, i suspect whilst actually growing its infrastructure in the meantime, i am just saying right now, bitcoin is over shooted, for all the reasons i made in  my first thread, and the risk/reward ratio of the market price right now if you take into account the political stance of china doesn;t match the increase in price either, if china are really going to be the backbone of bitcoin

So i am bearish, i do appreciate the information you researched  chalkbot, it does give some food for thought

And just to clarify; You re-google it each time, or do you use bookmarks for information you want to reference in the future?

Huge unexected solar storm could turn down electricity down for months worldwide. It would be big punch for Bitcoin and whole economy as well.

Google. I don't use bookmarks much, usually only for web pages that have impressed me and that I don't expect to find easily again.

I have no objections that governments will not kill Bitcoin (whatever they may try to do) but do they really have to extinguish it entirely? Just think what destiny awaits Bitcoin if it is officially outlawed (remember gold in the USA of 1930s)?

Yes, this would definitely be an eye-catcher if it ever comes to that. Personally, I don't doubt its strengths but this just won't be enough to even enter the real cutthroat competition with a strong local currency (think those of the USDX basket)

First of all, it is not competition you are referring to. The whole BTC economy is only 2-3 billion dollars worth, if not less. The effects of Bitcoin are negligible on the world scale

Secondly, it would cost governments more to fight Bitcoin as to the damage it currently incurrs. In short, Bitcoin is just not worth fighting with it

do people who call themselves bears here have the same problems with everything else, like they have with bitcoin? For example, you don't buy a car because you know so many things can happen to it and it will lose value. You can even get hurt too when you will have accident or something? And if you don't then maybe you should stop leaving your home because there is so many dangerous things outside ...
Personally I'm sorry for you because it has to be hard life where you have to worry about so many things ...

It's just ridiculous (don't take it personally). If it's banned in the USA, don't ever doubt it will be officially banned through the whole world very soon, maybe save for some rogue states like Iran or North Korea. But even with them, this opposition will be rather ostentatious and not involving real adoption. Ayatollahs aren't fools (whatever you see about them on TV), they may actually use Bitcoin for their purposes and definitely not in the direction you would want them. North Korea now lives at the expense of the USA (threatening to commit suicide), they would just die off from starvation but for the US humanitarian aid, so there is also not much room for discussion

And all China economic successes are due to America, don't have any doubts about it

China will never adopt Bitcoin as its currency unless they have full control over it and its emission (which is impossible by definition). Really, why should they? What profits will they get out of its adoption instead of yuan or on a par with it?

You will suffer losses having not sold them in time

What you say in pratice would mean that all those countries should drop their national currencies (or at least put Bitcoin on a par with them which would mean they don't value their own currency). How come?

Lol, I think you're not really sorry for anyone but rather trying to inflate your ego. Offtopic! ;D

I'm not saying they should drop their national currencies. Just that they don't move to ban the use of crypto currencies. They just take a hands off approach and allow it to develop and run its course.

Plenty of countries have already done that.  The most friendly one being Germany I believe that declared Bitcoin private money.

I gotta admit I am glued to the bitcoin ticker, because this crash when it comes is going to be EPIC

in fact so big that i might be too scared for the first time to buy back in

You are being ridiculous.

You do realize that in April the rise went from 30 to 266? An 886% rise.  When it fell, it did so on the day that the ONLY exchange got ddos?  But it fell and it fell hard.

This rise started at $200. It's up about 125%.  We have several exchanges. We have millions of dollars being put into the exchanges from SecondMarket that can't be taken out.  

Are we going to correct? Yes. Probably a few times before $500? Yes.

Are we going back to $70?  HAHA. Hell no.

Maybe we fall from $500 to $260. That's worst case scenario.  If that scares someone off, so be it.  You are just punchy because you made some extra money (what 100k?) on this rise.  Well, most of us have made money too, including myself. A little more than you, in fact.

But your "EPIC" crash scenarios are ridiculous. Unless we run from here to over $800- $1000, there will be no epic crash. Just a sizeable correction. Rinse and repeat.

^ Winner

You still have chance to buy back in bears..  :D

You are all weak.   ;D

You think that isn't going to happen, that's cute.  :D

why do you say this? i think this wave may have started around $200. this rise? that's like saying the april move started at $140.

have you actually SOLD your bitcoins? because until you do you have made exactly $0

Thanks for the advice. Yes I have sold some. Still have some.

Here is some other useful advice, don't know if you have heard these or not:

There is no "I" in team.
Better safe than sorry.
Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

I'm sure you can help me come up with some others.

bitcoin to the moon?

Arise chikkun?

moar?

BTFD?

Let's call it $120.  886% would put us at $1063 before the next "crash".

Or we can see when Jason sold last time. He sold at $150. The market rose another 56% after he sold.

So, now Jason sold at $445. Based on historical analysis we can predict the market at approx $800 before the next "crash."

I'm bearish when it comes to buying right now. This price rise is insane and I just can't see it staying where it is right now. When we have a correction (which I'm pretty confident we will) that will be the time to buy. And by correction I don't mean down to $50 a coin. I'd say the lowest would be $260 and that's really really pushing it. This is assuming nothing major happens when it comes to laws etc... Then I'd say full blown flash crash down to $50 but a quick rise because every bull and their mother will buy.

We just had a correction down to 265 a few days ago. Are doing major corrections every couple of days now?

Would you really call that a correction? I'm talking about a stable price correction. That's more of just a mini flash crash and a bear trap at that.

There is going to be no stable price correction until a significant number of collateralized debts are denominated in BTC, which means there has to be a significant number of people who will want BTC, not to invest in it, but to spend it. Which is going to take a while, and will likely happen when BTC is much higher anyway.

Everything else will either be a "crash" or a "bear trap" or a "bubble" or a "consolidation", because everybody knows that within the month BTC is either going to rally by 20% at a minimum, or crash by that same amount at a minimum.

i thought that exact same thing funnily enough, I usually exit stuff too early, but when you have so much gain I don't mind - its not possible to call exact tops without a lot of luck.

but based on the math I started selling at more like $350 and only finished selling at around $445

What do you all mean "based on the math"? Just because the last bubble rose 800+% doesn't mean this one will! At all. In any shape or form. It could grow much bigger, or pop immediately. The only "math" that matters is buying and selling pressure. The latter is often off the books until it's too late. OTOH there is plenty of bullish sentiment each time we exit a triangle in the right direction.

You sound like gamblers pretending to see patterns in randomness. This has been going on since the last crash with people predicting based on past patterns. Why haven't people figured out yet that this doesn't work?

Seconded. I don't see historic evidence that the magnitude of this run-up can be compared to previous rises/corrections. Or, thus, that the magnitude of the April rise has any bearing on current sentiment.

I have never suggested this run up will be more or less than the previous.

I do believe however that the significance of the fall is based on the height and verticality of the rise.

If we only go as high as say $480, then the fall will not be seen as a crash. If we go from here to $800+, the fall will probably be called another crash.

maybe you should have read the post more carefully

last time i called a top at $159, and it went to $260

therefore BASED ON THE MATH I was 63% early..... you see there really is math involved

therefore assuming by some random luck syndrome - which would be purely luck, BASED ON THE MATH I started calling a top at $350, which should therefore end at $570

of course no one (myself included) takes this seriously, it was posted in jest by the previous author and myself.

This is really understated.  The bitcoin community was unable to rely on the largest exchange and this lack of confidence in that platform really made it difficult to support BTC fully at that time.  Now we have multiple and mostly reliable exchanges.  On top of this, more and more businesses are starting to accept BTC AND there is money being spent building an infrastructure and platforms that makes it easier than ever to interact with BTC.

I got your point... 8)

If it is banned in the USA, the ban will have devastating repercussions throughout the world. This in effect would mean that you won't be able to legally buy Bitcoin for dollars (even if you are buying outside the United States), with all ensuing consequences thereof

All this talk of bitcoin being banned in the U.S.

Newsflash, BTC is not getting banned in the U.S. That is about as obvious as the noses on our faces. We do not live in a totalitarian system, despite what Libertarians will tell you. We still have a free, if unequal, democracy.

Heh, what's it smell like?

Any substantial displacement of some local currency with Bitcoin would mean proportional devaluation of this currency. And you still insist that governments will be nodding approvingly or just stay impartial? While Bitcoin remains some analogy of gold, it makes no sense to ban it. If it enters circulation in any considerable amount (which is very unlikely due to Bitcoin's nature) i.e. becomes a currency, there will be

I'm not saying BTC is getting banned in the US. Actually, I said if it was banned (read, would be banned)... ;D

These "free democracy" folks always forget how gold was forbidden by Roosevelt in 1933  8)
But I never fail to remind them of this unfortunate fact... ;D

Actually, cryptocurrencies may well be the future -- for governments as well as us.

Governments love power... so I believe they will take the opportunity to embrace and extend cryptocurrencies. To the point that libertarians hate them.

Think about it -- a proof of work system is too perfect for them. Yes, it does remove the need for trusted authorities, but it also removes the need to trust the populace.  If all payments are on a public blockchain, tax can be built into the protocol. The need for traditional taxmen and auditors goes away.

You're a bit late!  ;D
They already have payment cards and non-cash transactions (free of the "inconveniences" Bitcoin comes with)... 8)

Yes, but they would have to change the protocol at first... Would Bitcoin remain Bitcoin then, and (what is even more important) would it have any utility after that? ;D

Also, how are you going to prevent double taxation issues (provided anonimity is preserved)? 8)

I don't think Bitcoin will be the future crypto currency. With the instant internet age, people don't have the time to wait even 1+ minutes for transactions to take place and then there's no solution for the ever increasing Blockchain size. No way Bitcoin will be able to handle 100,000+ transactions per second. Bitcoin is experimental and has too many flaws to be successful.

I believe a better digital currency will come to replace Bitcoin and it may even be made by some government. All merchants will probably flock to use a government's digital currency.

However, there's still no competition for Bitcoin yet except maybe Ripple so Bitcoin will keep rising in value for some more months (years?). Till then the bulls can enjoy the ride but don't forget to unload some coins on the way! :)

Do you have a bank account (or had in the past)? ;D

In the near future, even 1 second maybe too long a wait! It's not about the past - it's about the future.

Let's talk about the present! ;D
And NOW we have that BTC transactions are times (or even by orders) faster than the bank ones, lol ;D

This is a bears thread. There's nothing for the bears at present with the raging prices lol

Anyway the party will come to an end some day and some may be left with worthless coins if they don't enjoy the present and the few months ahead! Technology progresses rapidly once a start is made somewhere.

Yep, this may very well be the case with Bitcoin but this for sure will not be the end because of transactions per second ;D

i'm still bearish

+1

As a US citizen I like to remind my fellow Americans that we are less than 5% of the world's population  and even that percentage is shrinking.

Same here. This has, to me, all the characteristics of a bubble, and we all know what happens to them eventually. Might be a bit left to the top. I´ll sell some more when we reach $500.

 

Here is how the US sees the world  ;): http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qrbBdyVpteg/T_DRqEE9UrI/AAAAAAAAABk/ajNP2-JpMx8/s1600/US+only+Globe.jpg

Lol. Gold standard was dismantled soon after that... ;D

As long as the world economy is denominated in US dollars and all major exchanges trade in that currency, percentage of the world's population doesn't matter. As simple as that ;D

By the way, I'm not a United States citizen... 8)

Do you guys think the results of the upcoming Nov 18th conference in DC will affect the price?

What if word gets out that the authorities are openly anti-Bitcoin?

China awakens to stagnated prices: The sell-off that appeared inbound for the last 5 hours is materializing.

Quotes usually already reflect the most possible outcome of such things even before the word gets out. Personally, I don't think the authorities will be that openly anti-Bitcoin, so the price shouldn't be much affected

If it ever gets to be too much for any of you bears, just send me a PM and I'll buy them off your hands.

Sure, how much do you offer above Stamp?

Don't underestimate the amount of programming development in Bitcoin that occurs in the US.  Didn't Gavin Andersen state that if the US government told him to stop he would.  Not to discount the rest of the world but US has a lot to do with Bitcoin.  Both ETFs are there and lots of VC activity is in the US right now.  Outlawing gold didn't stop the gold mines elsewhere but I wouldn't be so sure that negative sentiment in the US will have little impact.

Didn't notice this comment of yours at first! ;D
No, I'm not in the USA and have never been to, and yes, I reside in one of those BRIC countries, lol  ;D

If I wanted to see how many Nervous Nancy's I could get into a Bitcoin thread, this is the title I'd give it.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bW8j_pY4lbg/TX03bbwHGUI/AAAAAAAAAEg/PhJTEE9MrRw/s1600/Crying%2BKid.jpg

This is another massive bubble! SELL SELL SELL, then grab your kids and ammo and head for the hills!! IMO  ;D

The two countries that are most important to Bitcoin are the US and china. China, because it has the most people (esp. most people intersted in Bitcoin), and US, because it has the most money because... well... it prints it all.

If you felt upset when the market did the opposite of what you expected, you have not heard of stop-loss orders and margin trading.  ;) I have more bitcoins, that are worth more, yet I was wrong by your standards.

China's population is poor on average and despite its tremendous numbers it is hard to tell how much ordinary people can buy (what would make it matter). So I doubt there's considerable interest in Bitcoin among chinese Jane and Joe... 8)

i agree with this. good to keep in perspective. this is being driven wild by speculators. this rally has very little to do with adoption.

This rally has allowed me to triple my USD. I've left the entire profits in coins which now have cost me 0.00$ + 0.00C even though I have pulled my investment back out.  I could be greedy and cash out like every speculator will but I'll keep my free BTC and send the fiat back home, win win

Thank you bit coin.  I'm glad I was able to do it this time instead of screaming TO DA MOON and selling nothing like in April and getting burned.

But there are a lot of newly rich people in China that don't have any investments to put their savings in.  They don't have Fidelity.com offering 100,000 mutual funds and stocks.  They buy empty apartment buildings right now, because there is literally nothing to invest in.

If you want to shed your decade-outdated notions of China and see what is really going on right now and how much wealth they really have with nowhere to put it, watch this 60 Minutes segment:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50152767n

This is why people are getting out of real estate in China and into bitcoin.  And looking at all those apartments, don't expect it to stop anytime soon.

Hahaha... Decade-outdated notions of China, lolwat?
Wanna check your words (and mine)? ;D

pretty condescending stuff itt.... some obviously think very highly of themselves around here.

Ok what now?  ;)

Thank you bears!
Just eaten you loadout at bitstamp. Wanna more!

Let's see how this plays out before you declare victory, my friend..

this needs at least 7 days minimum to play out

and if it goes up from here, then it wasn't "the big one"

right now people are still in the "oh its a dip buy" mentality. So I will not be surprised if it still makes a new high in next 24 hrs