Bears thread - unleash the bear in you in this thread

[RyNinDaCleM]

BTC will eventually fail and go to $0...  There's my bearish input.

It would be so unbelievably difficult to undo what's being built around the world pertaining to this technology.....
The longer we go with governments and banks doing nothing, the stronger the infrastructure is getting.
The stronger the infrastructure gets the less chance BTC will ever hit zero.
The more viral BTC goes the less chance BTC will ever hit zero.
The more businesses accepting BTC ... the chances of BTC hitting $0 become *zero*.
I honestly can't even think of what would have to happen on a global scale that could make BTC drop to $0.
Maybe nuclear war ...
Therefore, statements like the above one, don't seem to reflect an awareness of reality to me anymore.

A competing cryptocurrency that takes the good of Bitcoin and potentially none of the bad would cripple Bitcoin.
I think this technology is the way of the future, but Bitcoin may not necessarily be the one.

[bitwhizz]

It would be so unbelievably difficult to undo what's being built around the world pertaining to this technology.....
The longer we go with governments and banks doing nothing, the stronger the infrastructure is getting.
The stronger the infrastructure gets the less chance BTC will ever hit zero.
The more viral BTC goes the less chance BTC will ever hit zero.
The more businesses accepting BTC ... the chances of BTC hitting $0 become *zero*.
I honestly can't even think of what would have to happen on a global scale that could make BTC drop to $0.
Maybe nuclear war ...
Therefore, statements like the above one, don't seem to reflect an awareness of reality to me anymore.

No government will allow Bitcoin to compete with its local currency

Governments currently are allowing Bitcoin to compete with their local currency. It seems there's something of a stand off going on - governments are aware of Bitcoin, and you would expect their immediate reaction might be to try to ban its use. Unfortunately for them, they only have jurisdiction over their own territory, and Bitcoin is a global currency. So if, say, America were to ban the use of Bitcoin, there's nothing to say China wouldn't simply continue to encourage adoption. At this point, all BTC related business would move to China, leaving the U.S. behind as the rest of the world simply reaped the benefits of this new technology.

Not true, Thailand apposes bitcoin, and we don;t know the reaction of the chinese government towards it if it blows out of proportion, as bitcoin most certainly does not suit the fundamentals of chinese communist ideology

Don;t get me wrong, this isn't a worry for us in western democratic states, however one anti bitcoin sentence from the chinese government will cause a collossal crash, just so we can buy it all up

 i don;t think anyone can disagree that if the chineese government does accept bitcoin, they will most certainly want to be to regulating the exchanges, this will also cause a crash, so now is not the time to buy folks, let the chineese have their fun for the meantime, and lets swoop in later
thats all

The China/America thing was only to illustrate a point. You also have Europe, Russia, Africa, South America to consider - Basically all it takes is one country to say, 'fuck it, we love Bitcoin - do as you please' and they become the hub of all Bitcoin activity overnight. Then the fact that Bitcoin will still be functional in every other country means that there will probably still be people in those countries using it regardless of legality (as is observed with the prohibition of cannabis, for example)

I agree with you completely, however right now its china who are bitcoin bonkers, thats why i am talking about them, they almost have a kamikaze view on buying bitcoin

[BlueTemplar]

No need for nuclear war : a severe enough Internet failure could be enough.

[Chalkbot]

Search indexes are, and always have been a cumulative trailing index of price. That is to say, totally worthless for predicting future price movements. As you can see when you zoom up on the graph, searches for bitcoin in China didn't spike fully until June 2013, well after the April bubble.

Think of the chart as how many people learned about bitcoin on a given day. Once you know, you don't need to google bitcoin anymore. So, since April, we should assume that every spike on this chart combined are potential buyers right now.

[BlueTemplar]

If I was to buy an investment, and read about it several months ago, I would go and re-read about it before investing.

[bitwhizz]

Search indexes are, and always have been a cumulative trailing index of price. That is to say, totally worthless for predicting future price movements. As you can see when you zoom up on the graph, searches for bitcoin in China didn't spike fully until June 2013, well after the April bubble.

Think of the chart as how many people learned about bitcoin on a given day. Once you know, you don't need to google bitcoin anymore. So, since April, we should assume that every spike on this chart combined are potential buyers right now.

Ok, but i'm not surprised they only found out about it after the bubble, other wise we would probably never have crashed as bad as we did! secondly were there reliable chineese exchanges? i doubt it

I agree it can't predict future price movements, however it can indicate hype and a bubble, which was always my point, based on that point you can predict what happens once the hype is over, this is not too say bitcoin will go to zero, however it does say that bitcoin will be at a lower price point to what it is at the moment, especially with a 200 dollar increase in ten days due solely to the chineese. Now based on the last hype the price did infact bottom out at a much higher price point after the hype which is probably what will happen this time round, and that is probably how bitcoin will make its way to $1000 +, through these cyclical bubbles, i suspect whilst actually growing its infrastructure in the meantime, i am just saying right now, bitcoin is over shooted, for all the reasons i made in  my first thread, and the risk/reward ratio of the market price right now if you take into account the political stance of china doesn;t match the increase in price either, if china are really going to be the backbone of bitcoin

So i am bearish, i do appreciate the information you researched  chalkbot, it does give some food for thought

[Chalkbot]

If I was to buy an investment, and read about it several months ago, I would go and re-read about it before investing.

And just to clarify; You re-google it each time, or do you use bookmarks for information you want to reference in the future?

[Heutenamos]

No need for nuclear war : a severe enough Internet failure could be enough.

Huge unexected solar storm could turn down electricity down for months worldwide. It would be big punch for Bitcoin and whole economy as well.

[BlueTemplar]

If I was to buy an investment, and read about it several months ago, I would go and re-read about it before investing.

And just to clarify; You re-google it each time, or do you use bookmarks for information you want to reference in the future?

Google. I don't use bookmarks much, usually only for web pages that have impressed me and that I don't expect to find easily again.

[deisik]

That is exactly why Bitcoin was designed as a decentralized P2P protocol, with no single entity responsible for it's ongoing operation.

Of course governments will try to kill it. The US will try to regulate it to death, while some other countries might try to make it illegal. But the effect will be the same, Bitcoin will go on and be difficult/impossible to shutdown.

I have no objections that governments will not kill Bitcoin (whatever they may try to do) but do they really have to extinguish it entirely? Just think what destiny awaits Bitcoin if it is officially outlawed (remember gold in the USA of 1930s)?

[deisik]

It was belief in this strength that drove interest from the early adoptors. At some point this property will be tested and it will be interesting to watch.

Yes, this would definitely be an eye-catcher if it ever comes to that. Personally, I don't doubt its strengths but this just won't be enough to even enter the real cutthroat competition with a strong local currency (think those of the USDX basket)

[deisik]

Governments currently are allowing Bitcoin to compete with their local currency. It seems there's something of a stand off going on - governments are aware of Bitcoin, and you would expect their immediate reaction might be to try to ban its use.

First of all, it is not competition you are referring to. The whole BTC economy is only 2-3 billion dollars worth, if not less. The effects of Bitcoin are negligible on the world scale

Secondly, it would cost governments more to fight Bitcoin as to the damage it currently incurrs. In short, Bitcoin is just not worth fighting with it

[tutkarz]

do people who call themselves bears here have the same problems with everything else, like they have with bitcoin? For example, you don't buy a car because you know so many things can happen to it and it will lose value. You can even get hurt too when you will have accident or something? And if you don't then maybe you should stop leaving your home because there is so many dangerous things outside ...
Personally I'm sorry for you because it has to be hard life where you have to worry about so many things ...

[deisik]

Unfortunately for them, they only have jurisdiction over their own territory, and Bitcoin is a global currency. So if, say, America were to ban the use of Bitcoin, there's nothing to say China wouldn't simply continue to encourage adoption. At this point, all BTC related business would move to China, leaving the U.S. behind as the rest of the world reaped the benefits of this new technology.

It's just ridiculous (don't take it personally). If it's banned in the USA, don't ever doubt it will be officially banned through the whole world very soon, maybe save for some rogue states like Iran or North Korea. But even with them, this opposition will be rather ostentatious and not involving real adoption. Ayatollahs aren't fools (whatever you see about them on TV), they may actually use Bitcoin for their purposes and definitely not in the direction you would want them. North Korea now lives at the expense of the USA (threatening to commit suicide), they would just die off from starvation but for the US humanitarian aid, so there is also not much room for discussion

And all China economic successes are due to America, don't have any doubts about it

[deisik]

i don;t think anyone can disagree that if the chineese government does accept bitcoin, they will most certainly want to be to regulating the exchanges, this will also cause a crash, so now is not the time to buy folks, let the chineese have their fun for the meantime, and lets swoop in later
thats all

China will never adopt Bitcoin as its currency unless they have full control over it and its emission (which is impossible by definition). Really, why should they? What profits will they get out of its adoption instead of yuan or on a par with it?

[deisik]

If they are worthless, there is no harm in holding them. The transaction costs would be too high to actually sell them.

You will suffer losses having not sold them in time

[deisik]

The China/America thing was only to illustrate a point. You also have Europe, Russia, Africa, South America to consider - Basically all it takes is one country to say, 'fuck it, we love Bitcoin - do as you please' and they become the hub of all Bitcoin activity overnight. Then the fact that Bitcoin will still be functional in every other country means that there will probably still be people in those countries using it regardless of legality (as is observed with the prohibition of cannabis, for example)

What you say in pratice would mean that all those countries should drop their national currencies (or at least put Bitcoin on a par with them which would mean they don't value their own currency). How come?

[deisik]

do people who call themselves bears here have the same problems with everything else, like they have with bitcoin? For example, you don't buy a car because you know so many things can happen to it and it will lose value. You can even get hurt too when you will have accident or something? And if you don't then maybe you should stop leaving your home because there is so many dangerous things outside ...
Personally I'm sorry for you because it has to be hard life where you have to worry about so many things ...

Lol, I think you're not really sorry for anyone but rather trying to inflate your ego. Offtopic!

[Tirapon]

The China/America thing was only to illustrate a point. You also have Europe, Russia, Africa, South America to consider - Basically all it takes is one country to say, 'fuck it, we love Bitcoin - do as you please' and they become the hub of all Bitcoin activity overnight. Then the fact that Bitcoin will still be functional in every other country means that there will probably still be people in those countries using it regardless of legality (as is observed with the prohibition of cannabis, for example)

What you say in pratice would mean that all those countries should drop their national currencies (or at least put Bitcoin on a par with them which would mean they don't value their own currency). How come?

I'm not saying they should drop their national currencies. Just that they don't move to ban the use of crypto currencies. They just take a hands off approach and allow it to develop and run its course.

[User705]

The China/America thing was only to illustrate a point. You also have Europe, Russia, Africa, South America to consider - Basically all it takes is one country to say, 'fuck it, we love Bitcoin - do as you please' and they become the hub of all Bitcoin activity overnight. Then the fact that Bitcoin will still be functional in every other country means that there will probably still be people in those countries using it regardless of legality (as is observed with the prohibition of cannabis, for example)

What you say in pratice would mean that all those countries should drop their national currencies (or at least put Bitcoin on a par with them which would mean they don't value their own currency). How come?

I'm not saying they should drop their national currencies. Just that they don't move to ban the use of crypto currencies. They just take a hands off approach and allow it to develop and run its course.

Plenty of countries have already done that.  The most friendly one being Germany I believe that declared Bitcoin private money.