Bitcoin Forum

Let's stay together my fellow bears, not even the most irrational bull still believes in this madness:

https://i.imgur.com/4v04gzp.jpg

Yesterday (Sunday) the price in China went from 3000 to 4000 in 12hs, today we almost reached 5000.
And MtGox and Bitstamp are blindly following BTCChina.

The current situation is ridiculous and everybody here knows it...
Can anyone mention just ONE good reason to explain this price? well, no, because there is no reason for this delusional rally. Actually the only reason for this rally is the rally itself: people are buying only and only because they see other people buying and the price is going up like crazy!

So what happened over the last month in Bitcoin:

• Jiasule, a Baidu division, started accepting bitcoins
• Silkroad seized
• "First" Bitcoin ATM
• Bitmit (the only eBay-like website for btcs) went bankrupt

The Baidu thing is just hilarious, and the story about those news bitcoins ATM in Canada is almost irrelevant since BitInstant is still (and forever?) down.

But now we have the US Senate hearing, is this going to change anything? I don't think so, but let's see...

The hearing will be reflected by the press and will influence markets in a couple of days.
Until then a lot can happen. On Bitstamp and BTC-E experienced traders started to dump big, to cash out or buy back at the bottom.
It has nothing to do with the hearing, but with the market peaking, at least that's what they believe.

Until now the hearing is very negative...

I call it the echo chamber, others call it the postive loopback cycle, but from what I can tell, there are many new, naive investors getting into bitcoin and the main source of their news is this message board and reddit, both of which contain a lot of people trying to drive up the price further for their own self interests. Some of these people are just trying to play the market, and others are simply delusional and think the rally will never end.


That sums it up pretty well.

Disagree.

reason price is going up is because there is no supply

longs are 100% firm in their belief that its going to $10 000 so why sell....

so more money chasing almost no coins = massive prices

right now pretty much anyone who bought a bitcoin ever is sitting on healthy profit on paper, and there are no shorts. So market is basically 100% on paper profit, quite amazing.

Looks like the peak gonna be this week.

LMAO!

I thought panel 1 was rather positive.

What is it going to take for them to sell?

fear of losing their profits is the only reason people will sell, and as long as its moving up, greed is the emotion driving the day

everyone will have a different pain threshold. People who got in early or are true bitcoin believers will not sell at all unless it goes to say under $100 or under $50 (not saying it will go there).

the new buyers are those that are vulnerable. If you bought in for 600 and it goes to 400, it will not feel good.

It all depends on the color of the lenses in your glasses. Check the speculation forum and r/bitcoin to see how everyone else views the hearings.

I can spell a bubble right now. Too high too quick

Me too. It was hard to pull the trigger but I had to.

Back in April people in this subforum believed that the top of that bubble was going to be 3000 :)

btw I wouldn't sell btcs right now: wait til the bulltrap :>

I still see big buys going through at these prices, some well over 100 BTC

no idea who has cahones or money that big, to buy into a vertical rise with $100 000+ USD at market prices.

just crazy.

Selling lower just few days after you bought does not make any sence.
You should only sell when you need money

Can I say this:

There are a few people who are truly btc devotees and will not sell no matter what. But most people are just sitting on their hands at the moment and just waiting for the right time to dump and make a killing. Probably once the price retraces say x%, there will be a tremendous rush for the exit but the door is only so wide.

Another thing, I look at the btc chart here http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ (http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/) and the volumes seem low compared to pre-April 2013. Basically the volumes never recovered after the April crash. Low volumes confirm the weakness of any bull market. I tried to get charts for BTC China exchange to look at volumes but I couldn't get anything.

I sold my bitcoin already yesterday for 400 USD apiece.

Not sure if happy or sad right now. I do think that the price is going to crash very soon, but I should have waited a little longer, in hindsight.

noways it stabilizes here. It must go over $1000 tomorrow to keep this momentum or it will implode back on itself.

i sold all of mine between 320 and 440

if you made money be happy

its impossible to be right all the time

problem with bitcoin is the exchanges are so primitive there seems to be no stops or options or any way to manage your risk, so unless you sit attached to the computer 24/7.......

Yes, but rational thoughts don't apply to someone who just entered BTC during a bubble.

BTc china volumes are massive

almost 100 000 coins today and its not over
$840 on btc china now

Thanks for your reply. Yes, I made about 500 euro profits, so that's very positive. Still, I could've made double of that if I'd only waited a day longer. Hindsight is always 20/20, of course.

And yeah, it gets very tiring to watch the prices go up and down all day on these primitive (and often lagging) exchanges. But today I made a simple script that will mail me if the price will be in my favour. Yay!

yeah if you are speculating you are trying to make money with money you (hopefully) don't need......

self fulfilling prophecy, but whats your point though?

I sold 50% at 400$, I plan gradually sell another 25%
I want to keep 25% just in case something crazy happens.

I'm truly devoted, but if the fucking Bitcoin Foundation is going to cooperate with the US government to regulate Bitcoin and try to stop the implementation of ZeroCoin or CoinJoin then I say good bye!  :-\

it will be interesting in the next few days.

bitcoin advocates will say this is technologically disruptive thing, that deserves to go much higher, this is only the beginning.

I came to the opposite conclusion, its a pyramid scheme disguised as something new and brilliant.

Bull are literally so sure of themselves, out of 12 million coins, only about 10 000 are on offer for sale, less than 0.1% of total

heres how i see it. you kind of have to zoom out and look at the big picture.

during times of monetary inflation, when money is easy to come by, it tends to move to riskier and riskier ventures. both china and the u.s are seeing serious money printing. When money is being printed you don't want to hold on to it.  if you are well connected to the source of printing there is very little risk involved with investing it, so you go big on high risk high reward investments.

bitcoin is a very attractive investment to someone with a lot of cash just sitting around i think. its novel, its high tech, its young, secure, and its high risk and high reward.

with that said... i would guess there would be a major correction soon, but who knows how high it could go...

Is Proudhon in here with you guys?

What`s yours?

bitcoin is the currency of the technocrat isn't it? and probably always will be.

in fiat world -> currently high inflation -> people spending their cash now before prices go up
in btc world -> currently high deflation -> people holding off spending until later when they can buy more, make more capital profit

neither is good isn't it?

No, the ideal currency is one in which the holding of currency and the holding of real assets are equally desirable/profitable and currency can fulfill the role of being a medium of exchange with as little friction as possible.  This means currency can not accrue interest, or experience long term upward or downward trends in purchasing power, all of these things tip the scale.

well at least you guys still have time for the litecoin Train. 

How odd. I'm getting a very different result.

First, we're looking at $ volume, right? Otherwise we would have to pretend that trading 1 btc for 200$ is equivalent to trading 1 btc for 500, 600$.

So let's add up $ volume on mtgox, bitstamp and btcchina in the 4 full weeks before the April peak (including the week of the peak). That adds up to 376M $.

Now adding up volume for the same exchanges, for the past 4 full weeks (up to now), and we get 761M $.

Volume never recovered?


Wait, let me guess: "btcchina has zero fees, their volume is all fake!"

Bears, get ready to slaughter some Bulls!  >:(

Their time is near!   :D

https://i.imgur.com/0WFDvuu.png

http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin (http://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin)

 ::)

Are you guys going to have a bear party if the price tanks before it hits 1000usd?

Proudhons 10dollar celebration?

 :P

Proudhon will sing his song!

Proudhon turned bullish after we dumped to fifty. ;D

You do realize the Chinese don't care about whether it goes over $1000 or not?

Changing Bitcoin protocol by Bitcoin Foundation to regulate Bitcoin would mean forked blockchain, and existence of two Bitcoins alongside. This would be scary

A 12k dump (big whale) would immediately crash the price to 400$.
IMO it's only a matter of time until a big whale decides that he can't sell all his coins without dumping.

You you be doing it all wrong, in conventional technical analysis you look at ordinary volume, not dollar volume. with dollar volume you mix up two different data sets, i.e. price and volume. open any technical analysis textbook and you will find price and ORDINARY volume charts. dollar volume is usually only mentioned briefly if at all. believes me i read too many of those books over past 20 years.

Depending on who would win. I believe BitcoinREGULATED won't be worth much. "Bitcoin - There can be only one" on the other hand ...

yeah then put the number in yuan.

it has to keep moving up on all exchanges, it cannot pause or stabilize. its up or down, no sideways

Actually, I disagree. A strong bull run/bubble can only work with periodic corrections to rewater the tree of sober investing ;D, q.v. bitcoin in April through June 2011.

How many "investors" believes in Bitcoin as a cypherpunk project? this is not about the original purpose of bitcoin anymore, this is about making tons of fiat

Does anyone realized that China almost doubled the price in just 26hs ?

https://i.imgur.com/9stl7XH.png

Duplicated?

You mean doubled?

thanks :)

Ah, I see. I forgot the ingenious "I read it in a book", no wait: "I read it in *many* books" defence.

You expressed concerns that this rally is running on low volume, a sign of divergence. That argument however assumes that you are concerned that not enough money is entering the market to sustain the rally. Hence, USD volume is the important factor here.

I'm not saying btc volume is never a useful metric, I'm not saying this rally will "go to the moon", but I *am* saying that if you seriously believe that after a 50-fold price increase since January we must have the same btc volume to sustain a rally, or at the very least: sustain the gains we made, you'd probably  be wrong

that's rubbish what you said isn't it? if you believe that the market price at any time is the correct price than it shouldn't matter what the price is when something is sold, it's just the quantity that matters. if wot you say is true, then say in the extreme case all sellers pulled out the market bar one sell order of 1 btc @ 10 trillion USD and some eejit buys it at 10 tr USD, then your dollar volume suddently becomes 10 trillion USD isn't it. the volume would be 1 though and most technical anyslst would say that this is no trend at all!

that's right but a sequence of smaller dumps of say 2k each means we will get to 400$ quicker because as soon as the price begins to substantially move downwards, a lot of those buy orders are going to get cancelled by people changing their minds and who don't want to catch a falling knife.

Sold out 15 bitcoins for my job. Cant risk that.
still 5 left wich I will hold for ever.
Bought 680 litecoins for fun. Will buy more bitcoins after the crash? If it doenst crash i'm happy for you guys. I made a ton of money i'm happy.

I feel comfortable in the bears bunker. What about you?

I don't really feel comfortable but since I sold I feel like it's where I belong for now  :-\

Do you have to pay to do your job? I've always done it the other way around ;)

https://i.imgur.com/COxE69B.png

bulls are at delusional stage, volume confirm :D

cmon guys

this is weak sauce

lets see 400

While Gox is no longer the Market maker it used to be the fact that USD depth their is almost exactly the same as in the April bubble leads me to believe that their really is no more real money behind this bubble, rather these new highs are supported entirely by the shallowness of the available BTC pool (low volume being consistent with that).  Obviously USD on other exchanges and Yuan in BTChina have an effect too but I don't have any data on that and think it unlikely that it is on par with the Gox depth because Gox has existed so long and it's withdraw difficulties trapped all the April money their.

On Gox we have seen about 25k coins reappear during this small pop, that's still far less then what got dumped in April so a decline back to the 100-200 range seems unlikely in the near future.  In the long run though we should expect prices to stabilize at the daily mining output (3600) divided by the sustainable daily investment volume in dollars that the world can maintain.

Nice, Im sure you made others happy as well when they buyed your bitcoins.
Everybody happy  ;)

Chinese who bought at $1200 USD aren`t happy, and must be eating ramen noodles for dinner this week.  :(

Chinese happy no matter what. Anything to get their wealth away from their totalitarian government.  :)

Can someone please explain the "litecoin Train" in terms of BTC. If something belongs in the Bears Bunker this has to be it. http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=6-months&resolution=day&pair=ltc-btc&market=btc-e (http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/period-charts.php?period=6-months&resolution=day&pair=ltc-btc&market=btc-e)

Edit: This reminds me of silver in terms of gold, which has been in a bear market for over a century.

https://i.imgur.com/IbSq8IO.png

I think bears might be out of luck if we're hoping for some massive april-like capitulation drop to $300. There is just too much horsepower now and too many exchanges involved. These bids have all formed in the past day...  And then there's the 500, 750, etc dark orders on bitfinex.

c'mon you ursine brutes, I know you can do it

Lot of bullish arguments, some walls forming, bull trap?

I think that a missile hit the bunker , an Mgox-670 model =))))

Maybe he's a loan shark :)

Let's jump in and cuddle up with the cute hairy creatures for a while...

How do you spell bull trap? ;D

Need to activate the bunker. I think this growth rate is not at all sustainable.

A week after correction and we just made a new ATH 3 hours ago? Bad time to be a bear, man.

what correction?  ???

Enjoy last 1-2 weeks in triple digits. :-)

~ 900 to 450
 ???

It will fall again. The buyers will want to cash in on ATH.

This place is scary :(

Maybe we are being too hasty...

https://i.imgur.com/espcrFP.jpg

you can't call that a "correction": it's just one stick in an year chart :P

Nothing to justify top of this channel. Not even a second point.

you are right, I was just comparing it to the last crash, but there is no reason for doing that...

imo a correction should be between 200 and 400, or even 500 if we go a bit further

A correction will happen for sure but I'm back fully in BTC, the up pressure is too high.
By looking my past trading performance expect a crash any minutes from now.  :-[

I feel, it is going $1k+ forever. :-) ( time scale 1-2 weeks )

It's just a matter of time....

http://fdzeta.net/imgcache/17150.imgcache.png

I think he is sure now^^

I tried being a bear, looked like it was going to tank at ~$775. That didn't go so well.

Now I'm all in again, but lost back the (small) profit I made on the previous dip to $450 on this trade. I think it's time to retire my 6 mo long career as a daytrader and just go B&H from now on.

It seems the market has peaked, let's see how deep the correction will be.

700s I'd say.

Couple of hours after rally has restarted?  ;) Come on, Tzupy, you are way smarter, than that. It was to be expected there is some last ditch resistance before psychological barrier of 1000 breaks. By the way, volume of this "correction" is incredibly low.

Not gonna happen. Not right now.

If this is the first sub-sub-wave in a type 5 wave, there is always a (relatively small) correction at it's end.
But if this is the peak of wave B, then it's going to be a large one.

Tzupy, just being curious. Does your "way of guessing" work also on the profit side or only on the smart side?

It's because this entire way of thinking of "the one trend" is flawed from the beginning.

Depending on your bias you use the entire data when you draw the line or, mathematically slightly more sophisticated I guess, use linear regression, or you drop some of the peaks as "outliers", in which case you get a slightly flatter line, but in the end all of that reasoning is based on the idea that one growth function governs all the time from 2011 to now.

That's almost certainly a flawed conclusion.

If you're willing to accept a huge imprecision (maybe you care only about the order of magnitude), then it's an okay approach I guess. But if you happen to be interest in the actual price, I don't see much value drawing any line between data from 2011 and 2013.

If the growth on the log chart crudely matches a linear function, one can claim exponential growth.

well actually i thought that the exponential growing was in fact related with the difficult of the network  :D

anyways, if miners are cashing out now they are making really nice profits (and I believe they were waiting for that..)

What indication would lead you to believe miners are cashing any of their mined assets? If I was mining I'd be holding off as long as I could right now.

Also Can someone explain this recent behavior on bitcoinity... during selloffs there are massive swings in the price, almost as if someone is recognizing the selloff and actively buying into it to create some support level?

Also, the coordinating moves across networks (once between Gox & BTCChina, and recently between Gox & Bitstamp)... is this just a result of bots? Any insights?

Anyone alive? Just checking? NMC and LTC have also seen huge speculative runs. Any insights?

What are the current bear opinions? The bull opinions are very well known.
Bid sum on Gox is starting decreasing a little bit. 2000$ then crash?

My experience tells me I shouldn't look at the bid/asks. They can change anytime.

I dont believe we will make 2000 this year, not enough fiat for that and infrastructure of exchanges is already struggling as we speak. 1500 (Gox only) is the ceiling I think.

Good morning. I'm not normally a bear, but recent events are beginning to bring my ursine side out of hibernation.

I am with my family in rural Washington for the weekend. In the local small-town newspaper, I saw an editorial article about bitcoins. It talked about the price movements of BTC and altcoins for 60% of the article, gave a brief discussion of what it is for another 20%, and spent the last 20% with a brief quote from an economist who mentioned the usual criticisms of any private currency.

Do you see? A small-town newspaper runs an article about Bitcoin, and it's mostly about how the price is going up and up. To me, this is the doorstep of "Aunt Flo buys into this hot new thing without understanding it at all", which - in the traditional path of the bubble - is the beginning of the end, as the last possible pool of buyers are exhausted.

Your thoughts?

which paper?

Unfortunately, though that article is helpful, you could gauge this sentiment just by reading the forums and looking at member join dates. The more "get rich" and paranoid reassurance threads ("will it crash?" "is this the top?" "will we go higher?" "predict the top") the more likely we are in a territory of people just buying to make money and not investing in an idea for the sake of the idea and helping it advance.

Peninsula Daily News

I would be more concerned if it was Eastern WA, the peninsula is very much in the orbit of Seattle, plus Neil Stephenson lives out there.

That's an important point. At some point, there will be profit-taking. The Bitcoin "exchanges" will suddenly be required to pay out sums in excess of a billion dollars.  Mt. Gox has trouble paying out much of anything, and some of the other exchanges are flaky.

Think about this. We have unregulated "exchanges" run by anonymous parties holding huge sums, which they may have to pay out.  Historically, over half of Bitcoin exchanges have failed, usually taking the money. How many will actually pay up when it's time to wire transfer a few hundred million dollars?

Nagle. I demand of you to show up in this 2 years old thread and provide an update on the eventual endgame: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=55024.0

Alternatively, update your website downside.com.

It's taken much longer than I expected for the irrational exuberance to subside.

What still hasn't happened is substantial use of Bitcoins for buying real-world goods. This last runup is because Bitcoin can be used to get around exchange restrictions in China. There's still little non-speculative use. (Satoshi Dice does not count as "non-speculative")

Right now, Bitcoin Charts shows all exchanges headed down.

We have an interesting event coming up - on the next downturn, many new speculators will cash out and will demand money from exchanges. Some of the exchanges aren't going to make it.

That'd be scary.

Of course it does! Gambling's part of the entertainment business.

No funny. Laugh!  :D

I would if I didn't have some fiat tied up on some exchanges.

Why would the exchanges not have the required funds to pay out? If you sell your bitcoins on an exchange, there must be a buyer with fiat on the exchange ready to buy it.

Thanks Nagle, at last I am satisfied. :)

They're supposed to, but all they're really doing is exchanging ExchangeBTC for ExchangeUSD and then processing withdrawals, but only for those who request it. A significant amount of money is stored on exchanges because banks suck and it takes a long while to actually move fiat around. To that significant group of people, it makes sense to keep some money on exchanges long-term for short-term trading.

An exchange can have $10M in ExchangeUSD IOUs, but actually only have $5M in USD to pay out. This fractional reserve system (or in this example, probably insolvency) works so long as there isn't any kind of "bank run" on the exchange.

MtGox and BTC-e (maybe BTC-e still does - Idunno) used to have "code money." That is, you could withdraw fiat and BTC in the form of GoxUSD or GoxBTC - debt notes, represented by a hash, similar to Bitcoin. You could trade these notes around, and they offered excellent advantages, but also the very serious drawback that Gox may not honor the IOUs. These IOUs, it should be noted, are effectively the same as the balance you see in your account on an exchange -- they're not necessarily representing actual money. When Gox started issuing these IOUs as a withdrawal method, there was a very slight premium over face value due to the convenience they offered. However, when Gox's future started looking uncertain, GoxUSD and GoxBTC started trading at a discount under face value. This was because the debt notes (the same as account balances in exchange accounts) may not have been fully backed by Gox's reserves. Gox eventually discontinued issuing these debt notes due to regulations.

Thanks for this, didn't know how they officially do it.

Rise of the Bear Threads

Today Bears might party  ;D

If I would cash out I wouldn't do it through any exchange, I would do it directly on OTC, though that would be less than 10k usd...
I mean, why wait 2 weeks when you can do it in one day?

That is theft. Money transfer companies in the US or Japan are not allowed to do that. Funds on deposit belong to the customer, not the exchange. Not "are owed to", but "belong to". This the difference between going bankrupt and going to jail. For Japan, read the Payment Services Act. I don't know about Slovenia or Romania.

This is why fractional reserve banks are regulated, have capital requirements, and are backed up by deposit insurance.  For why, see Emergency Banking Act (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Banking_Act) in Wikipedia.

Of course they're not allowed to, but laws don't define reality.

Reality check:

BERNARD L MADOFF    
Prisoner #61727-054
Location: Federal Correctional Institution, Butner, NC
Charges: Securities fraud, investment advisor fraud, mail fraud, wire fraud, money laundering...
Release date: 11-14-2139    

Bitcoin isn't exempt from fraud laws. Ask Trendon Shavers. "Unfortunately for him, the associated jail time for the crime isn’t virtual." - WSJ

You'll notice they still committed the acts even though they were illegal. Someone else can still do it. Exchanges can still operate on a fractional reserve system because laws don't put up a reality protection field which automagically prevents crimes.

Indeed, how does Trendon getting send to jail help me? Also, I'm curious whether he'll face jail time at all.

Since when were Gox a fractional reserve bank? You have proof of this?

To have USD on Gox, you have to have deposited USD.

Even if you deposit BTC and sell then withdraw, there was a buyer that has USD on Gox. You can imagine any convoluted scenario you like, but it all boils down to the fact that the dollars in Gox, in peoples accounts, are dollars that were deposited by one person or another.

It's a closed loop, and over time as all the BTC moves back and forth Gox skims a percentage off the top. Daily volume gives you a good idea of the ballpark of how much they make.

Now, if they are doing anything untoward with that cash like speculating themselves then that is a serious problem (As well as being totally stupid, because why kill the golden goose!).

If the running costs are so high that they outweigh the commissions, then we have a serious problem.

The only decision a rational investor has to make, is whether you believe that Gox is trustworthy. The recent move towards 'regulation' in the USA and now China looks to be a good thing in this respect. Whilst Gox isn't under US jurisdiction, I think the precedent being set here means that Japan won't be too far behind.

Then we will all see whether Gox's Golden Goose is alive and well.

Pour encourager les autres.

https://i.imgur.com/6dMvGEA.png

Wonderful :D

I'm not a bear, but I was laughing at all the bulls that said "crash/correction is over.. on to the moon" when the GOX pause/loop happened.

Big run-up when it looked like Bitcoins were an easy, legal way to evade exchange controls in China.
Big run-down when People's Bank of China says not to do that.

This sharp downturn will stress the exchanges that can't deliver funds. Some more exchanges may go under.

You bears in the bunker , should not open any packages that come your way next days.  >:(

From my understanding this is completely wrong. They can still use it for remittance (yay!) and use it like a commodity (yay!!). FUDwagon rollin' through Nagletown.

XRP/Yuan parity this year. :P

https://i.imgur.com/pnh8Wol.png

:D

I see a bottom somewhere between 250-400 this month if we don't start having a massive amount of real good news.

(btw the predicted price was 400 for Christmas on the long time exponential trend, but panic..)

Haha. Hope you lose a lot of money buying @ the top of a china bubble.  ;D

Shouldn't bulls start a 'bull bunker' thread, now that it's going down hard?

As for where the market is, IMO it's in the middle of wave C. The first third was a weak drop, the second third happens now,
and the third and most powerful drop (itself divided into three) should happen in another 2 - 5 days, depending on volume.

good analysis. It was hard to see a week ago. Now its all seemingly coming together like clockwork.

Yup, although I think the recent news from China are going to keep the market in downtrend for more time than that... I really hope some good news after that because I wanna turn bull again :P

look at all the fancy new furniture in here

love what you guys have done with the place!

 ;D

Got in at ~135. Stamp says 740. No problem, still moving up overall.

The funny thing is, I get the impression that a couple of hours ago a lot of people were thinking "it's heading down; I'll get my fiat ready for a few days time", and then the China news comes out and after some minor coin dumping for an hour these same people think "It's hit bottom! Let's get in there now or never!" and get back in days before they would have done if they remembered what they were doing!

Yuan/Bitcoin is dropping much faster than USD/Bitcoin. The rally happened because Bitcoin provided a way around exchange controls in China. When the PBOC clamped down, that ended. 

Now we're back to the basic question "What is Bitcoin used for, anyway?" With all this volatility, it sucks for any transaction where you're stuck with a price in Bitcoins for more than a few hours.

I feel bad for the baby bull that finally got their money together at the double top saying TO THE MOON....

Wow, that went faster than I expected! So it doesn't look like April after all.

Now, the big question, was 480$ the very bottom (Gox price)? I'm not sure, based on historical data the price should
drop by about 50% during the last sub-wave of wave C, and now it only dropped about 36% (750$ to 480$).

It's not over yet mate. $400 is bound to come today, CHINA means something.

BTC is going down more. This is a serious crash.

The sell pressure from the Chinese is too great. It really is amazing to watch.

$425 on CNY, Gox follows CNY

:walks in:

*ahem*

:hands jojo69 a tissue and some tylenol:

What happened to this thread?

It's kinda gone silent, isnt' it?

C'mon guys, today might be a good day for you. Correction from sucker's rally is already happening. Support on Stamp around 630. Will it be broken or not?

Trend is different now with all the attention and public governments chiming in.

If the trend follows, the prices will stabilize around 500s for awhile until the next big bubble.

Chinese seem to be selling. The trend is definitely down.

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btcchina/btccny

What do you guys think of the all the walls that formed in 400s and 500s? Bids are at ATHs. Will they just be drilled through if China crashes again?

Depends on the news. Right now everybody thinks the banking ban in China is just a minor inconvenience and eventually there will be ways around that.

They are wrong if this is right

“The PBOC statement on Dec. 5 was somewhat vague and there is more clarity now,” Zennon Kapron, managing director of financial consultancy Kapronasia, said in an interview yesterday in Shanghai. “The way it’s reading now is that after the Chinese New Year, you won’t be able to get your money off the platforms.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-18/btc-china-says-it-can-t-accept-new-deposits-for-bitcoin-trading.html

So the Chinese have until 10th February 2014 to withdraw fiat and coins from their exchanges, is this correct?

The 4h charts suggests a new downtrend, but the bids are now at an ATH, interesting situation, could turn either way.
Google trends shows interest in bitcoin similar to the 500$ level, but is lagging by 3 days.

Still going down.

I wonder how much BTC still needs to be sold in China? My guess is BTC China will sell down to the $200 range by the time a majority of the BTC is sold off.  

And you think MtGox/Bitstamp will follow China all the way down to the bottom?

I think if you can get coins around $500 you will be in a good position regardless of your timescales. I see it bouncing up and down between $600-700 for a few weeks so good trading opportunities and then into the medium term it will continue to trend up. People are buying Lamborghini's with Bitcoin, 2014 is going to be wild.

I don't think Gox/Bitstamp will fall that low (although BTC-e could get close), but that doesn't matter. Rich Chinese investors with foreign bank accounts will buy up all the dirt cheap BTC on BTC China and then dump those coins on Bitstamp/BTC-e (easy to withdrawl money) for a huge, instant profit. That is why what happens in China matters so much.

https://i.imgur.com/4kIj07n.png

The price at MtGox is ridiculous, I believe the reason for the lack of arbitrage is fear of fast drops, but still I find it strange...

anyways, downtrend! we are going back to a reasonable $300

The reason for the lack of arbitrage on Mt. Gox is that nobody can get US dollars out. The Mt. Gox USD price is fictitious, because you can't really sell at that price and get paid.

Main discussion: "Mt. Gox Withdrawal Delays." (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.0)

OK, what we know about fundamentals at this point:

• The U.S. Government is basically OK with Bitcoin if you follow the rules for trading any other commodity.
• China is clamping down on Bitcoin, because they have exchange controls and Bitcoin was a way to evade them.
• Drug dealing in Bitcoins has mostly been shut down. The people behind Silk Road and Silk Road 2 have been arrested.
• Retail transactions in Bitcoin are up, but it's not used widely for retail.
• Volatility is too high to price anything in Bitcoins unless it's something with a huge markup.
• So far, nobody operating a Bitcoin exchange has been able to provide safety and reliability comparable to an on-line stock broker. Not even close.
• The overall transaction cost of doing business in Bitcoins, after considering volatility, the cost of getting in and out of Bitcoins, and the risks associated with flaky exchanges, is higher than credit card processing costs.
• Nobody is using Bitcoin for micropayments for music tracks, game items, or other < $1 items.

Knowing that, what anchors the price of Bitcoin?

Nice job Nagle, so btc is a beta experimental product. any other avenue of life, it would not deserve more than $20 per unit I think. only excess, hubris and blind greed be paying $600 per unit.

Future potential.

I made my first bitcoin purchase a few days ago. Bought a VPN service so I can connect to hotspots without risking getting my digital gold stolen. It was much faster and much easier than traditional plastic transactions. Didn't have to fill in dozens of fields, the transaction itself took less than a second and I had my merchandise within two minutes of clicking the buy button start to finish. Most of said minutes being spent downloading.

Simply put, bitcoin is better at what it does than traditional means. It's arguably a better store of value than gold depending on favored metrics, it's easier and faster to buy stuff with it when properly implemented and perhaps most important of all for some of us, you don't risk waking up one day and find the state has confiscated half of it.

fuck

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed (https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed)

be extremely cautious

---

Chinese Bitcoin Exchange OKCoin Accused of Faking Trading Data (http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-bitcoin-exchange-okcoin-accused-faking-trading-data/)

 ::)

The blockchain.info stat, is that bearish or bullish?

Could be neutral or bearish. The stat just means a lot bitcoin were moved today (the most ever) that had been in storage for a long time. Bearish sign if they were moved in order to sell.

Another problem is the incompetent people in charge of bitcoin.org, bitcoin qt, and the bitcoin foundation.  while people are losing btcoins, getting hacked and unable to find a good wallet, their busy cashing in and buying yachts.

The obvious fundamental to be considered is market psychology and reality. If the price of bitcoin or any commodity or stock rises fivefold or more within a month, then one cannot realistically laugh off bearish thoughts. During the recent rise, I have made diversity and contingency plans and have little fear of a bear scenario: that just means cheaper 'coins. I did do some speculative selling when we tottered around $0,90-$1,00 per mBTC, and bought back in lower, but then I only gamble, ahem, trade with a fraction of my bitcoin anyway.

More usefully, I like to use my hot wallet to spend bitcoin to buy real stuff, even if the bitcoin is converted to fiat via Bitpay or the like. I figure that actively using bitcoin cannot be harming the bitcoin economy. :)

this is one of the few rare helpful posts on the speculation forum. thanks for the info.

Pera, I understand that many coins are being transferred, but is it to the exchanges, and how many?
Would you mind elaborating on this issue? Thanks in advance.

After comparing the current market movements with the ones of June 2011, I believe it's possible that the drop from 1066$ to 455$ (11th to 19th December) wasn't the whole wave C,
but only the first third of it. In 2011 the similar movements were from 13th to 18th of June, with a drop from 24$ to 13$. Now, why did the current market rebound so strongly?
A possible explanation is that Google trends shows a short spike in interest on the 18th December, so some new fiat probably entered the exchanges.
The confirmation of the scenario that the market is still in wave C would be another large drop, if it won't happen then the new fiat may have reversed the trend, that would be interesting.

BDD peaks indicates old ("unmoved") coins being transfered, this one was massive. I don't think we are going to see much of those coins reaching exchanges though, but you never know...

anybody home  :)

Why would you bump this?  ::)

because we are back in a bear market!

just trolling ;D

Trollll!!!