Bitcoin Forum

A couple of us caught the Bitcoin bug. So we converted some of our trading analysis tools so they can monitor Bitcoin, and we decided to go ahead and offer it to the general public.

We tried to simplify it down as much as possible to make it as useful as possible for non-traders. We understand that most bitcoin users are not trained as traders (and even seasoned traders will find it a little complex).

Our specialty is algorithmic black-box development, but bitcoin hasn't hit enough liquidity yet for automated trading systems to make sense. So for now we are daytrading it right along with you!

So please ask as many questions as you like. Even if you don't subscribe, please feel to ask any questions you like -- we don't mind.

We prefer if you use our Zendesk Ticket system to ask questions since we must make sure we comply with SEC (Securities Exchange) and CFTC regulations since we service clients who are in those industries. So there are just some things we need to be careful about what we say in a public forum.

We will also be posting charts to this forum with the hopes it helps other bitcoin users.

Ok so here are some of the basic concepts of what it does:
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http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/CrashAlert.png

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/BounceImage.png

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/750HoldOrSell1.png

More details can be found on the website at: http://www.BitcoinCrystalballTrader.com/

Again, please feel free to ask any questions to our (preferred) Zendesk Platform:
https://quantitativetechnologies.zendesk.com/anonymous_requests/new

This signal to BUY bitcoin went out last night on the 4 hour chart.
I mentioned to consider it a scalp off the 4 hour chart.
Reversals should be considered "scalp" trades. So by "scalp" I mean a bar or two. So off a 4 hour chart, you are looking to spot 1-2 bars going your way. So for a 4 hour chart, that means for the next 4-8 hours (or 1-2 4 hour bars going your way.)

Here is the original signal when it was pushed. If you had taken it, you would be entering around the $475 range.

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/4HrLong1119Zoom.png

lol bitscalper 2.0

every scam comes back after a while ;D

Wasn't Bitscalper some site where you deposited BTC?

Isn't that site one that expects you to? IDK, is it?

What bank and/or hedgefund do you guys work for? I know a lot of the programmers in many hedgefunds and banks and none of them told me they were working on a project like this, when they have disclosed other secret bitcoin projects they are working on.... So this is looking like a scam.

It is a copy of this site exactly http://forexcrystalballtrader.com/

Sorry for the confusion. This isn't bitscalper (not even sure what that means.)

This is explaining one classification of trade. ie. Trend Trade, Position Trade, Counter-Trend Trade.

No matter what chart you are looking at (1 Bar = 1 Hour / 1 Bar = 1 Day / 1 Bar = 4 Hours) think bars.

Normally a "move" exhausts in 3-5 bars. So after 3-5 bars there is going to be a retracement (loss of profits), or a pull back. So in a traditional trade, you would look for 3-5 bars then start moving stop losses or taking profit expecting the move to be exhausted.

A "Scalp Trade" is when markets are unsure, or you are trading against a break of the market (in Bitcoin last night the market broke DOWN). So this is a long trade, going against that DOWN BREAK.

When you are trading AGAINST then you should be cautious. So instead of a 3-5 bar expectation, you should only be looking for 1-2 bars at most, then you need to switch to protection mode. Protect your position, protect your profits, be extra sensitive to movements against you, etc.

@gweedo - Yes. This technology was ported to currencies, metals and energies at the same time as bitcoin. (although some of us are addicted to bitcoin, new currencies don't appear everyday)

That is why we are offering our bitcoin users the ability to trade, and learn from additional markets (for those that wish to learn how to trade) and not just bitcoin.

Our specialty is in algo development with an emphasis on Quantitative Portfolio Management -- google: online portfolio switching algorithms. If you have specific questions or needs, feel free to contact me directly and I'll answer them directly. I don't want to clutter the forum.

/subscribe

lol

So I have concluded that this is a scam, because I can't find any information about this or the other site I found, on any of the sites.

ALSO the biggest clue is when you google maps the address you get this https://maps.google.com/maps?q=2831+St.+Rose+Parkway+Henderson,+Nevada+89052&hl=en&ll=36.008397,-115.111153&spn=0.000494,0.000603&sll=42.746632,-75.770041&sspn=5.195465,9.876709&t=h&hnear=2831+St+Rose+Pkwy,+Henderson,+Nevada+89052&z=21

Which doesn't have any of the companies name listed their but had this http://www.davincivirtual.com/loc/us/nevada/henderson-virtual-offices/facility-1339

Yes a virtual office, meaning anyone can register a fake company and have it seem legit. Case Closed.

I like their colorful pictures :D There's one with rabbits on the site itself.

Okay, I volunteered myself as the guinea pig. I got a 6 month subscription to the daytrading signals.
I'll post back here with results. So far they have answered my support ticket with 17 minutes of my
first message.

Edit: I won't be giving away signals as that would likely breach the licensing agreement, but I will tell
you whether they are legit or not.

You have too low of trust, you could be a shill for them.

Gweedo, you are absolutely right. You have no idea who I am. Therefore, read my reports for
fun or don't. Your call.

Just got second support ticket to set up account in 5 minutes after my last response. Mind you, I've
already paid my money.

Am getting set up on trading signals now. I have not found out about the type, scope, or nature of
these trading signals. All I've been asked thus far is my email address. It is unknown whether they
will be automating the trading against a specific exchange or just having me do it manually.

One concern is that they remain personally unidentified. Thus, they can hide behind their anonymity
with little recourse. Even their support tickets do not use names, only "Customer Support Team". In
my opinion, any company that uses the word "team" really means "me and the wife"... ;)

I don't understand the point of this. Here are posted advices how to earn money by trading but it is public info. Now imagine if everyone would start to use this strategy. Total mess and ultra volatile market. My advice is don't buy this crap, especially if you are supporting bitcoin and know that volatility maybe can make you profit sometimes but is bad in the long run for bitcoin and all of us.

Damn, you paid at least $285 or up to $450? Good luck man..

One victim is all they need.

But it`s a crystal ball, so it`s gotta be right.

Why not offer a free trial? Seems with the subscription prices, it might be difficult to get a ROI unless you`re trading heavy volume. Bitcoin is still so thinly traded that it must be harder than normal to call a market movement, and a healthy dose of skepticism is good here.

Thanks, the information I am getting thus far does not smell of bs. Now, their trading system may
not perform well, but I don't think it is just fluff. The price above will be insignificant if this system
turns out to perform even marginally well. I am using it to simply increase BTC holdings. I'll be using
10 BTC to begin working the system with. If it yields better than 7% gain in 6 months, it will break
even.

I just got the first trading signal email at 05:21PM EST. It is a full page of information
complete with charts, quantitative insight analysis, and technical trading information.
It might not work in actual trading, but it is a real system.

I got another trading signal at 05:41PM EST. The first signal was the 30 minute chart. This
one was the 1 hour chart. Same trade signal, summary analysis, charts, quant analysis, and
top news stories. They are also possibly going to add social sentiment and news sentiment.
(That last sentence was a statement they made during a customer support ticket conversation.)

I have asked for trading signals over the last 2 weeks to do some back testing. We shall see if
they produce such information.

FYI, had I traded on the 30 minute signal, I'd be up 3.58% as of this minute.

They use MTGOX market data for their signal timing because (in their words) "...it has the most
volume and the least intrabar volatility..." That works good for me because I trade there.

I'm done for now. I'll let you know over the next few days how the trading signals are going.
At the very least, you should know that these guys are not scammers. Again, I say that their
system may not work, but that is an entirely different issue. Good luck folks! Build your BTC
holdings!

Well, after 2 days of trading signals, I can say that I am very happy with the purchase. So far it has
kept me out of at least one bad trading decision. I can tell you that these guys are for real. This is what
they do for a living. Their CS has been exemplary thus far. By the way, avoiding that one bad trading
decision paid for the 6 month subscription.

I guess we'll see how it continues to perform over these next 6 months. If anyone has questions on
performance, please PM me. These posts are starting to sound a bit fan boyish. Not generally my style.

Best of luck to all of you!

This has SCAM written all over it  ::)

Agreed. High upfront cost and no trial offer of any kind. Combined with all the `hurry up, this offer is limited to 25 users` BS, it looks very shady.

guess they're doing better than expected.... says *250* users now :D

Not sure if it's a scam though. From the looks of it they deliver reports. The quality of those reports could be another matter of course.

lol maybe it was 250 to begin with, I gave the site a cursory glance a couple days ago. Just features like that and `Yes! You can make a million dollars with this service!` statements kind of stand out as red flags to me.

But I thought I also read 25 when I looked it up a few days ago.

OP isn't updating in here, but if you look up his posts on the economics board you'll see (some of) the actual reports they do... they're not completely incompetent from a quick glance (mentioning for example Fibonacci Retracements), but I'm not sure at all those reports are worth  ~300USD. Looks too vague to be really useful IMO.

Hi All,

Sorry to have been away. Two conferences, a slew of meetings over the weekend, exhaustion still wearing off, but here's the update.

It was 250 subscribers maximum (not 25). Irrelevant at this point, because we maxed out over the weekend. Something must have been posted or mentioned somewhere in China, because a whole bunch piled in. I mean a whole bunch. This I know because more than half of the emails, I can't understand.

We will continue to post charts and analytics to the forum as we have time.

Wishing everyone a great holiday!

If you would like to split your subscription with me, to reduce cost, PM me.  The more trading the same direction, the better the results will be, after all.

==================
  Bitcoin Black Friday
==================

We Are Currently SOLD OUT. We have filled our quota of subscribers. But in the spirit of Bitcoin Black Friday, and to support our favorite new currency, we will be offering 10 more subscriptions on Bitcoin Black Friday.

If you don't subscribe to us, it's no problem, but we strongly encourage you to support other vendors on Bitcoin Black Friday. Prove to them it was a good decision to start accepting bitcoin! We want them to spread the news everywhere how great a decision it was to start accepting bitcoin.

Have a great holiday everyone, and support our favorite new currency!

: )

cj

yeah right..

lol why would you not want as many people as possible to join your service? *Limited Time Only* You`re allowing more people to give you money? Come on...

Actually, this is not our main business.

We aren't really set up to handle very many retail clients, and don't really want to. The current batch of subscribers we have pay for the servers and keep the software running. And fortunately, I kinda like the group of bitcoin traders we have. A few new traders, some seasoned traders, and some insane traders.

I personally like bitcoin, I'm a currency trader from way back. Not far enough back for the emergence of the euro, so for me, this is pretty cool. We are committed to continuing support of bitcoin, and as trading goes, you all have no idea what kind of opportunity you have.

But hundreds more traders? Um, no.

This is definitely not for everyone, the information is probably over most people's head, as it's not really designed for the average person.

Plus I notice that (not all, but) many bitcoin people are of the thinking "buy and hold till forever."  This really isn't for them either. This is for people who want to buy and sell to optimize.

It does (as it seems) to be for quite a few chinese speaking folk as well.

If you have any questions about this whole thing -- if you ask any of our clients they will tell you that I can always be contacted. My phone sleeps with me (I'm monitoring so many systems and servers). So instead of a random comment in a forum post, please contact me, I'm happy to answer questions.

But I rarely check this forum, aside from posting an analytics report here and there. So contact me directly,

https://quantitativetechnologies.zendesk.com/anonymous_requests/new

Ask for a relay to cj, and it'll come to me directly -- it will then ping my phone (which don't forget, sleeps with me). I'm happy to talk about anything bitcoin or market related at all.

Mornings are tough, monitoring and adjusting systems. Most of our clients trade the New York markets. So by new york lunch (1pm EST) I'm freed up. So that's a good time to contact me.

So once again, have a happy turkey day, hope I didn't offend anyone (words are hard to convey sentiment), but I'm always around, and do wish the best of luck to you all, and bitcoin!

: )

cj

==============================
           Interest In Scalping?
==============================

I want to put a feeler out, if there is any interest in scalping. By that I mean quick 30 second trades for $10-$50.
You would do this 10-20 times, but the catch is that it requires you to sit tight in front of your computer while you are doing it?
I have been doing it for fun every once in a while, and was wondering if I should release an indicator for it?

Is there any interest?

How would you send it out?  Email has latency and when you're dealing with trades in that timeframe there are bound to be issues.

Just signed up - I will let you guys know how it goes.

===================================
 Exercise Caution - Especially In Long Trades
===================================
Please keep an eye out for the lower trendline I've drawn.
The character of bitcion has changed, and warrants caution.
I've sent you all a notice through the zendesk system, and
am posting this as a followup.

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/BitcoinCaution1129.png

Additional followup of the message I sent everyone through zendesk.

The strong uptrend has broken (which doesn't mean it shifted into a downtrend yet), but has definitely changed character. It could re-establish itself, but the next 4-12 hours may be telling.

If you have long positions, establish a point where you will exit (mental stop loss), and be prepared to exit, you can always get back in if the uptrend re-establishes.

Urgent notices I will push through zendesk. I will use this forum thread for followup.

The triangle has broken to the downside, but just barely. So no serious alarm bells yet, but yellow alert for sure.

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/TriangleBroken.png

Additional note. EMA's on the hourly are rolling over, we know lots of traders watch those. So extra note of caution.

This looks interesting. Can I use this with Edison Money?

Clark Moody?

Prices have broken the triangle to the upside, but check for confirmation. The image I sent everyone, mirror image it to the upside. So look for the confirmations to re-establish the uptrend. Fake breaks are not unusual. The are common in other markets, but it's mostly people manipulating the market (not sure if that's possible at MtGox). But either way, watch for confirmations.

: )

cj

is this a bowl and handle configuration?

A quick note:

After being very sceptical in the beginning (the name "bitcoincrystalball" still makes me roll my eyes), I signed up after some additional communication with them.

I can't say much yet for the TA itself, but after 2 days of being in contact I can say that they are one of the most helpful, fast reacting and friendly services I've ever had the pleasure communicating with.

That's all for now.

Does it trade edison dollars?

Read my sig :D

Took a very small trade at 850 for the bounce to 950. Out at 950. Happened really fast.

Please make sure you are on the Urgent Message list.

Over the weekend we tried to notify everyone before the bitcoin mini crash hit when our systems detected it. There might have been a few subscribers that didn't get the notice.

I don't want to cause scares, so those notifications won't be posted to this forum, and will only go out on the Urgent Message system, so please make sure you are on that list. If you have any questions, or to confirm you are on the list, contact us through the zendesk system.

Thanks!

: )

cj

if i trade on btc-e, would this service be helpful to me?

@applelover from a trading standpoint, we recommend MtGox only because there is enough volume there that execution and fills will be a little cleaner, especially if you are trading any size at all.

Sorry I doubted you earlier, BitcoinTrader. After reviewing other responses from users, it sounds like your service is legit. Some of the claims on your site raised alarms in my head (and everyone should be extremely cautious dealing with bitcoin vendors, given the opportunity for fraud). I'd still like to see a one week trial offer or something to be 100% sure  :)

@kireinaha thanks for your kind words. Message me through our zendesk system, and I'll forward you a few signals so you can see what they look like.

But for the time being we are a little oversubscribed. Get on the waiting list for sure.

I will also keep posting to this forum when I have time. The only things I don't want to post are items that I feel might cause a panic.

: )

cj

===============================================
NEWS & TRADER SENTIMENT NOW FULLY ONLINE
===============================================

I sent this notice to everyone via the Alert System. This is for everyone not subscribed to the Alert System. If you are not subscribed to our alert system, then please get on the list ASAP.

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/Sentiment.png

More details can be found on our site: http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.co

News Radar What The News Is Reporting.
The NewsRadar Engine has a sophisticated Artificial Intelligence Engine that reads hundreds and hundreds of news reports and studies each one to figure out what each article is reporting. You get a final summary of what the news is reporting.

Social Sentiment Pulse Now you can keep tabs on the retail opinion.
An army of Artificial Intelligence Bots constantly scours social media websites and takes the pulse of traders, experts and commentators -- and reports them back to you. You can use this to confirm that they are thinking along the same lines you are about the future you are interested in.

Confluence When dozens of technical indicators line up, confluence breeds confidence.
The Confluence Indicator constantly tracks dozens of the most popular, and time-tested technical analysis indicators with proprietary algorithms. When they line up, that’s when you know that probability is the highest for a profitable futures trade, and produce a profit.

Recent levels where there could be risk has been pushed out via the Alert Mailing List, indicate where to exercise caution, and safe levels. If you are not on that list, please get on it ASAP. If you missed this recent risk report, please message us and we will send you a copy.

: )

cj

Marked up charts and warnings for the evening are being pushed to the Alert Mailing List. So please be sure you are on the list. If not, please get on the list, and message us for tonight's postings.

Currently 2 Warnings Issued.

: )

cj

================================
   EXAMPLE OF A "GUARDED" TRADE
================================

Given the warnings I issued, and mention of Guarded, Protective, Defensive, etc, here is what I mean.

I just took a quick trade off the 1 Hour Signal. It said go long. But, there were warnings of caution.

So I still took the trade. As I show in the graphic, I DAMN WELL EXPECT the market to do what I want, and I expect it RIGHT NOW. Okay, I'll give it a tiny wiggle room, but especially with warnings on, not a whole lot of wiggle room.

So I enter the trade on the 1 Hour Signal, I don't get what I expect, so *I'M OUT*. In this case I made a few bucks, but even if I lost a few, or broke even -- because I PROTECTED MY MONEY. In the end, that is MY JOB. I'm happy to get lucky, but I'll be protective until I get those rocket lucky moves that make a fortune. This could have been one, but it didn't.

Hope Mode = Evil. No go, then get out. Know where your limits are, know where the limits of the trade are.

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/GuardedTradeExample.png

Last night alerts were sent out to all traders long before the price crash. Those of you not on the Alert Mailing list may have missed it. This reiterates the importance of getting on the list so you will not miss important alerts.

I cannot send those types of alerts to this forum for fears of being accused of causing a panic. So you must get on that list ASAP.

Thanks!!!!

: )

cj

what do you mean by getting on the list? I thought you said you had no more space available.

There is a special list for our traders. We push urgent updates and warnings to them. We sometimes use this forum thread, but for sensitive information, we use that private mailing list. It's separate from the signals that are sent out.

cj

It looks like bitcoin is still struggling. There are a few scenarios where bitcoin could recover today or during the weekend. If any of them play out, you will get Private Messages through the Alert System. So keep an eye out.

: )

cj

15 Minute alerts have been added to the system. If anyone wants more frequent signals, they can be added to your account. Also, this weekend, more advanced Investment Style signals will also be added. So if you are interested in those as well, please tell us in the zendesk system.

: )

cj

As an example of a smaller trade, joining a larger trend (which can be done using the 15M Chart), I went long recently at 985 from the 1 Hour Reversal Signal.

I entered this trade with the expectation of joining the 4 Hour Trend. So now that I'm in, and it immediately went my way sufficiently for me to relax a little. With a little profit under my belt, I going to let this trade breathe a little.

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/LongExample.png

Expecting to latch onto this trend.

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/LongExample2.png

I'll tell you how the trade progresses.

cj

The previous trade didn't work out. Broke through the lower pivot off my entry (pivots as mentioned in the getting started guide), by the time I got to it, I was -$20. Oh well, hence adding in the price alerting system : )

This is the long trade I just took (those one I mentioned in the email). Mostly I got lucky, I happened to be sitting in front of my computer when this alert triggered. It corresponded with the trendline break, so I took it.

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/30mtrade.png

Triangle update has gone out. I might take a long position if the triangle triggers long. I'm going to tempt fate and fade the retreat back to the upper trendline (with a small position of course).

Controlling my risk ; )

cj

This is for anyone,

I am new to trading and have gotten into this on my own so please don't shoot me for asking, I am trying to learn/teach myself.
I have done fairly well trading though. :)

Which is the upper trendline?
Is there a title/name for each line and bar (Green, black, white, red)?
Can you tell me how to read this chart?

What does it mean, "Traingle went out"?
What does a triangle represent/show?

Thanks

@outofservice (cool name by the way) - I was using this forum as support for our subscribers. Sorry for the confusion. I was referring to an update that went out to them. After an email goes out, I sometimes add additional follow-up information here (instead of re-emailing everyone). Again, my apologies, I will try to be more clear in the future.

cj

===================================
       COUNTER-TREND TRADE EXAMPLE
===================================

I've been getting lots of questions on whether to trade against trend, and what does that mean.

So here's an example of what countertrend trading means from a technical perspective.

In the example below, the signal to SELL or SHORT was issued. When you look at the At-A-Glance, you can see that the two higher timeframes above you are LONG (going against you).

Does this mean you can't trade against the overhead timeframes?

You can trade against them, you just have to be aware that this is a countertrend trade, and you don't expect it to go far. So this would be considered a scalp trade (quick profit).

So in this example (below), you could have made about $10-$25 profit taking a quick profit. There are lots of traders who like to countertrend trade. They do this because they know that profit-taking always steps in to push prices temporarily back down, and that gives a countertrend trader their profit.

You just have to be aware that with countertrend trades, you have to be on your toes.

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/CounterTrendExample1.png

===============================
     WITH THE TREND EXAMPLE
===============================

To follow-up, here is an example trade that is going with the trend. The idea of a trend trade (although less exciting than counter-trend trades) is to latch onto the trend of a higher timeframe. So you use the smaller timeframe as a zoomed-in approach to fine-tune your entry, and take less risk.

But the profit motive is BIG. The objective is to catch the bigger wave of movement and then ride the larger wave.

In the example below, you can see that everything is in the green. So although this signal fired quite a while ago, you are still in it, riding the profits.

With a trend-trade you want to then manage your trade with a gentle hand. You want to let the trade breathe a little, managing the trade pivot by pivot. As bitcoin keeps pushing new highs, and doesn't pull back so far as to take out a prior low, you can let it breathe and continue to push upwards.

As the trend extends into higher and higher time-frames, you can just let that single trade turn into an "investment" for a longer hold.

Then look for another low-risk opportunity to get more bitcoin, and ride it upwards into an investment (longer term trade).

SO WHY WOULD ANYONE WANT TO COUNTERTREND TRADE?
It seems silly to trade against the trend, or to scalp trades when bitcoin is stuck in a congested price range. But there is an advantage to countertrend/scalp trading. The advantage is accumulation of bitcoin, piece-by-piece.

If you started with 1 bitcoin (for example), and only took scalping trades, you would only be making between $50-$100 per trade. But 10-20 successful trades later, you have basically doubled your account and now have 2 bitcoin. So you accumulated another bitcoin, bit-by-bit (no pun intended, well, intended a little.)

http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.com/WithTheTrendExample1.png

WOW this scam is still going... EVERYONE THIS IS A SCAM READ THE THREAD TO MAKE SURE YOU DON'T LOSE MONEY.

Really?

If you would have taken the 5 minutes to actually read this thread and some of the replies by forum members that tested it, you would have noticed their newsletter/subscription service is very much *not* a scam.

I'm happily (mostly) subscribed for about a month now -- regular updates, competent TA, very friendly and quick responses to all questions I had.

In my experiences, well worth the price.

Ignore this guy.

Been subscribed a few weeks now, it's completely legit, and the staff are very friendly people to deal with. The service is good also.

On uptrend "market forecasters" and "TA analysts" appear like mushrooms after rain.

And they get lots of sheepfollowers

Haven't seen any talk about this in the past few days...is this still being used by trusted members on this forum?  How effective has it been for you?

Ignore the clowns (like wobber). Nothing scammy about this service. Their newsletter is well done, the only complaint I have is that they tend to send a lot of signals, so the expected trading strategy is somewhat different from what I prefer (few, but large trades). Anyway, I never regretted subscribing, because it is still useful information even if I don't act on most of their signals (but I do use them as confirmation for my own trading choices).

hmmm ok, I'll check it out.   Are all the slots still full?

I've stood up for you guys several times in the past, defending you against scamming accusation. So I hope you will take into account now if I say the following:

Ditch Mtgox.

I asked you to include price analysis of other exchanges before already, and your answer always was "mtgox is the main exchange still". You were wrong back then, but, oh boy, are you wrong with that assessment now.

As long as your analysis is based on the warped numbers of an illiquid, dying exchange, I will have to ignore them.


EDIT: to be clear, I'm not going back on what I previously said: your service is honest and worked quite okay in the past. but your reliance on mtgox data makes it useless to me, unfortunately.