Bitcoin Forum

In the past, we have seen a few attempts of ETF ( exchange-traded fund ) for BTC, but they are rejected by SEC ( US Securities and Exchange Commission ). Now there is a new attempt for ETF from CBOE ( Chicago Board Options Exchange ) for which decision should be made in next month ( August 2018 ).

Unlike past attempts some things have changed and most agree that the chances for acceptance of this ETF are much bigger then before. The biggest change is that SEC recognized BTC as a currency instead securities, and some things are much clearer then before.

Some calculations say that hundreds of billions $ could enter in crypto market and push price even over 40 000$. Thus at first it seems to ETF would be really big thing for BTC regarding ease of investing.


https://medium.com/ironwood-rg/how-etfs-can-bring-bitcoin-over-35k-aacc58477b7e

I think saying "anyone" is a bit misleading. Correct me if im wrong, but you are going to need to invest 25 BTC minimum with this ETF, so it's not designed for the average joe, only for people that are probably millionaires already. Of course, this doesn't change the very bullish news, since the % of millionaires are the % that owns most of the wealth anyway.

I recently made a thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4700903.msg42433076#msg42433076) analyzing the price of Gold before the ETF and after the ETF, and how it looks exactly as Bitcoin does now right before the ETF, which would coincide and confirm the triple bottom scenario as the definitive bottom before the next big pump.

I dont want to look like a bulltard, but my guess, if the ETF is approved, is 20k by the end of August, and 50k by the end of the year.

ETF dissapproval last year leads into bitcoin surging continously until it reached it's new ATH. Although the following months until now, the result in not that pleasant to others.

So for me, approved or dissaproved I really don't bother on what will happened. Although there will be an advantage, I will just wait for the response of community about the result and what will be the impact of it to the bitcoin price.

Lots of positive speculations surely will be made while it's approaching and some will consider that it will be the same scenario like before. That upcoming event just giving me lots of thinkings on my head so I will just sit back and relax.

I dont think it will pump immediately, but approvement will signal the new era. An era that can take us into 50000 range. I just think it wont happen over night but gradually. I think in the next 4 years

I was being misguided on these ETFs before, and thanks I needed to read this.

Honestly, this can be the big breakthrough,everyone has been hoping for. If these ETFs get approved, a bullish trend is for sure on its way. However, these ETFs can screw things up. I have seen people being scammed by brokers and related exchanges by showing them a balance but having withdraw or deposit option. They only had a buy option and an automatic sell option. So basically people would buy it at a comparatively higher price and sell at a lower price.  I really think if someone should buy bitcoin, it should be the traditional way. I don't want people to look at it as a security/get rich scheme,which they will after the ETF gets approved. People should really be interested in what's behind the crypto and be a true investor.

Maybe that "anyone" is a bit misleading, it actually applies on people who have 401K ( A 401K is a retirement savings plan sponsored by an employer. It lets workers save and invest a piece of their paycheck before taxes are taken out. Taxes aren't paid until the money is withdrawn from the account ), IRA (An individual retirement account is an investing tool individuals use to earn and earmark funds for retirement savings ), or an investment account. I am not sure where you get 25 BTC minimum investment, i read also something about that before, maybe somebody can do a little better clarify on that?

Regarding gold, it is interesting comparison but gold is too different from BTC in many ways. It would be great to BTC went the same way as gold, and who knows, maybe even become more successful in the end :)


Probably not as you say, if CBOE application be accepted next month, investments will be available in the first quarter of next year. Anyway, on the wings of such a positive news BTC price should rise, but only in case that ETF be accepted.

ETF will surely create some more FOMO, but price action we have already is reflecting potential good news from it, the market is very shaken due to the bear market, this may be a catalyst for some good rises, however i would not get your hopes up, we have had many of these "events" over the last few months and I like to think this market goes the opposite direction than what we want it to

Shares are valued at 25 per share, so that is the minimum amount you could invest wtih this ETF if im not mistaken:


So basically, have $185k at current prices ready to invest if you want to get in this ETF.
I don't expect anyone worth less than a million USD to get involved, that's 36 million people out there.

Also no availability until next year.

There are still 20 days to go until it happens, i think that we can not speculate much about this, because there is still a long path to recover. But i am more than sure in that the price will be going up very strongly during the next few days.

I think thats every so slightly too optimistic.   The ETF will take time to accumulate holdings, pension funds are an annual allocation and I dont think people just pile into the ETF.      The plain holding company as a way to access this 'commodity' is just convenience more then definitely going to increase demand.


Its a positive but lets not carried away.  Lots of potential sellers exist in the BTC price between here and 20,000 and they all have to be satisfied first before go past those points.   We have supply ready in the price above is my point

In my humble opinion and having seen how it was in the past, I would say they have some chance, but I do not have great expectations of them being accepted. regulators seem to always make difficult when it comes to bitcoin



well, I'm not a professional economist so I had to read the article several times and it seemed to me that the calculations are very well accepted when he says:


seems to me a possible price to be reached

I wouldnt get too carried away either, im a bit sceptical really. Before its approved i would
imagine they will be looking at the negative effects of approval, i dont know what those
negatives would be though if any other than giving more power to bitcoin and crypto at a
time when i think the establishment dont necessarily want to do such a thing.

I think there will be a lot of speculation on the lead up to approval and if its approved the
price could fall !

Who says the chances are much bigger now? I'm only getting this sentiment from bitcoin holders. I don't think the SEC's position on BTC has changed in the past several years. They may have clarified their position, but that doesn't necessarily have bearing on an ETF's chances of approval.


You have a source for that?

Something of note: an ETF does not provide access to bitcoin. The trustee controls the fund and issues shares. No spot BTC will be bought. There is an assumption of arbitrage, but what I'm getting at is this: spot market demand doesn't wait for ETFs or futures or any other kind of securities.

An ETF may increase ease of access to Bitcoin exposure, but remember, ETF investors (and inverse ETF traders as the case may be) can also get that exposure through futures markets.

Buy the rumour and sell the news.    This could all be quite negative either way in that short term way, I'm following this thread and the news generally because I want to see how people are really believing this will happen or not.

I have not yet jeard anything that convinced me it will occur but if the market generally thinks its a good reason to buy, to front run this future demand in speculation then it becomes a factor before the fact.    
This is a very common dynamic in markets.   I remember the last halvening and all the hype from that, well it was quite boring and generally a bit of a sell.  We did of course pick up long term but it wasnt the blast off people wanted.   Sometimes you got to speculate on the speculators themselves :D

Any news on the ETF I'm glad to hear about but I'd expect the regulator to be considering widows and orphans and should unsophisticated investors be involved and able to access BTC with any greater ease

i still think ETF is not going to be approved and based on lack of reaction in the market to this news i think i am not alone in this.

but in case that ETF was approved this time based on things that OP has listed here and the changes that has actually happened in the past year ever since last ETF rejection, we may see a big rally start up. and in that case we can see at least $10k+ before 30 days go by.

Given the amount of money holding by mentioned broker-dealers ( Fidelity, Charles Schwab, Edward Jones, Ameriprise Financial, TD Ameritrade ) we talk about 10+ trillion $ which in case of ETF approval can easily enter in the crypto market. It makes sense that minumum investment is "only" 25 BTC.



SEC is especially cautious when it comes to such decisions, in case of some problems, they are responsible. BTC is still have many problems these days, so they must be 100% sure everything will work in the best way.



Source of that speculation is in article I posted in OP.

Okay, I can agree that average Joe won't have an option to invest into that type of ETF but.. what might be interesting is how this can change cryptocurrencies in case of an asset class, so then average people would enter the market through their fiat money into regular crypto exchanges and than crypto space.

There is an expectation that the ETF will be approved. But this is not certain. Be careful and take your position.

to be honest i don't really think that ETF on its own can do anything to bitcoin price apart from a small and slow increase in adoption so  the small increase of in-flow of money and as a result a slow and small increase in price.

but in reality ETF is such a hyped up event which can act as an ignition to the marke so that it can shoot the price up. in this case we can even see $10k be broken in less than a month or two.

If this is the case,i guess were too far from reality since this is the biggest event that more members expect to bring people to recovering from the half year losses.is this how huge to be part of etf?25 bitcoin each?damn big amount

I cant give prediction with this as this was the first time i heard about the investments capital

It may not provide direct access to Bitcoin, but every ETF share bought means that in the background x number of Bitcoins are being taken out of circulation. If the reserve runs out of coins, coins will need to be bought up and be put in the reserve to allow the next ETF shares to be fully backed. Whether it happens directly or indirectly, the only thing that matters is that coins will be taken out of circulation.

Bitcoin futures are too much of a gambling-like instrument. At the end of the contract date you either win or lose, which isn't something very suitable for long term oriented investors. An ETF is far more flexible and can be held for the long term just like how you are holding your Bitcoins, but then ETF holders don't actually have any Bitcoins, just the long term exposure.

I do not care if it gets approved or not. The important news bit here is that it is being tried relentlessly by those people who wants millionaires in this space. If we can get people who are millionaires and billionaires into crypto space they will not buy 1 bitcoin, they will try to buy as many as they want which
probably be like at least %1 of their portfolio. That can be billions of dollars poured into this. Even if it gets disapproved in the end it will be tried again and again until it succeeds and one day we will have a huge spike the likes we have never seen before.

https://theicojournal.com/source-bitcoin-etf-nearly-certain-to-win-approval-later-this-year/

according to 'back channel' sources it's looking like a strong possibility. i wouldn't go betting everything on it. these places must have hundreds of employees and most won't have the slightest clue about what their bosses want to see when they make decisions this big.

Some calculations say that hundreds of billions $ could enter in crypto market and push price even over 40 000$. Thus at first it seems to ETF would be really big thing for BTC regarding ease of investing.

Its hard to say but i firmly agree that an ETF approval gotta just massively push Btc price upwards, at least a 2x of current and result a $15,000 Bitcoin minimum. Judging based on the existing trader + upcoming institution players if the CBOE ETF really got approve tho

21M of Btc with portion of it which is loss are just not enough for the players in the market
Kinda positive on this

If an ETF brought in hundreds of billions it would raise the price of Bitcoin wayyyy higher than $40k. The market cap goes up by a lot more than the amount of money coming in.

I hope the ETF is finally approved. If it is I think that would be the signal we are definitely at the start of the next bull market and should see new ATHs next year. I'm guessing an ETF approval would see an initial BTC price of $1000+ or so just from the news. But the actual incoming flow of new money from ETFs would probably take place over months or years, but it would definitely be a factor in how high the next bull run goes over the next couple of years. I think the biggest immediate thing it would do is really kick off the bull run and convince the market that the bear market is over.

If it really happens, i think that bitcoin will easily be touching more than 8 thousand dollars if we are lucky, a little bit more than that and we might be on a bullish season again

An ETF doesn't create demand. It just allows exposure to the market in a regulated venue, like futures. The launch of CME futures was supposed to be a bullish event; instead it catalyzed a blow-off top and crash. :-*

More importantly, the extremely low volume on CBOE/CME futures suggests there isn't much traditional/institutional interest (yet). Institutions have access, and so does anyone with an Etrade or similar brokerage account. The launch of a listed market simply doesn't create demand.

Fundamentally, markets move in rips and runs due to global supply and demand imbalances. You can't have a post-bubble crash and immediately expect another bubble just because an ETF gets launched. Here's a case in point. At the end of 2012, the SEC approved the first copper ETF ever. What happened? The market crashed for the next three years:

https://i.imgur.com/UP7XTLM.jpg

If ETF gets approved,definitely it will have a positive impact on bitcoin price.T here is a doubt that whether the ETF approval would be on August or not.But if it gets approved,then atleast hundreds of millions would be injected in to bitcoin.There would be a considerable decrease in bitcoin supply when compared to its demand.This would induce the price more.

Here is good time to say about trading fees and position fees on contracts. And yes, we know that there will be some sort of fees on BTC ETF (if an ETF will be approved for sure) but they will be lower than on contracts - more sense in long-term investing here.

If SEC approves it we will see new all time high levels and before the date of approval we will see some new all time low levels too.
Speculations and manipulations will come around. I hope FOMO will enter the game before it.

It is bullish in the way that Bitcoin gained more legitimacy, not in the way that it would increase the price. It were most of the noobs who thought it was a tool for capital to flow in this market, but the reality is that there won't be anything flowing in this market at all. Bitcoin futures are an empty product, nothing more nothing less.

Dig up the charts of the Gold backed ETF that went live in 2003. It's definitely more fruitful than the copper chart you're displaying. ;)

i am only expecting to see it going up by a little, nothing more than that. i would be more than satisfied if bitcoin ever touches $10000 before the end of the year

While most people are saying the Bitcoin price will increase up to the $40,000. I am joining extasie opinion and asking at the same time:
If the decision is negative what do you think will happen to the price? A big slap like it got previously already! Bitcoin could below the $,5000

It was going to blow anyway. It found the nearest excuse to do so.

Futures don't require or touch actual Bitcoin, this application is for actual Bitcoin. That is direct exposure. Futures is not.

The groups involved in this application have had failed ETF applications before.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/06/vaneck-tries-a-third-time-for-a-bitcoin-etf.html

Having CBOE onside might make a difference but the fundamental reasons for the SEC turning them down are little improved since their last attempts.

Some guy on Reddit analyzed the document and basically said that this ETF doesn't really differ that much from the SolidX ETF which got rejected in the past.

Basically it seems the exchange is different but the result will still be the same.

I am predicting that it will first get postponed a few more months and then in a few months it will get denied, again.

Of course it's not much different, because it's a collaboration between Vaneck and SolidX.

The thing is that this ETF is backed by Bitcoin, is insured, and pretty much excludes a large part of the retail investors because of the $200k entry point. The latter is a very important factor for the SEC apparently.

For some reason they are fine with institutions buying exposure to Bitcoin, but don't want retail investors to do so. The logic behind that might be that institutions do their homework while retailers are more impulsive.

I just don't think these things fundamentally affect supply and demand. ETF shares and futures contracts are only worth the contract backing them, and in all cases (based on the current regulated offerings), there is no BTC settlement and no real capital flow to the spot market. The only application I've heard of for a product that will be settled in BTC is from the ICE, and I don't know how serious they are about bringing it to market.


If you look at the preceding price action, the market had very clearly bottomed by mid-2001 and sprung into a bull market well before the ETF was launched. ;)

Just pointing out that an ETF won't change the underlying supply and demand cycle. Copper rose 675% and had a classic double top, then the ETF was launched. So of course the market tanked anyway.


Investors can buy and sell ETF shares for cash. There is no BTC involved. This is no different than cash-settled futures in that respect. It's a security built on the assumption of arbitrage to the spot market.

The only difference is the existence of a trust funded with the underlying asset. No serious applicant isn't funded at this stage. It's not like they're going to wait for SEC approval and then try to buy the BTC at market. :D

Exchange Traded fund is the much talked in cryptocurrency community and the hope of its approval is the main factor that is making bitcoin price gone bull run  in the past few days. IF bitcoins can get to 25,000 usd by December of this year, then I think it will be the approval of this ETF

I think the price of BTC will go up before ETF, and the price of BTC will continue to go down after the result of ETF comes out, but these are all predictions.

for bitcoin it is about adoption and less about speculation. for example in cases of Gold ETF, ... after ETF gold adoption didn't increase, people already knew about gold and were using it and investing in it. ETF was something else.

but when it comes to bitcoin people still don't know about bitcoin, many of them are even scared of bitcoin because of countless number of FUDs in the media. something like ETF can change that mentality and remove most of those FUDs which means a lot of people will start seeing bitcoin for what it really is and start buying it => increased adoption = rising price.

I would've thought for them to be fully convinced by that angle it would need to be officially accredited investor only. There are plenty of retail investors with that type of money. They would need to be explicitly excluded. Also a fund could sell stakes in those $200k lumps to little people.

In case the ETF is approved, how much will actually be the investor's interest in this type of investment? We see that futures have not achieved some great success, and although this is something completely different here, whether large investors ready to invest billions in BTC at this moment?


Maybe price increase these days have something with ETF, but maybe something else causes that. It is "easy" for BTC go up to 25k $ if there is fuel for that rocket, last year it takes only 1 month from 7k $ to 20k $.

Dunno. Like everything else it's primarily an excuse to pump. I've lost count of the amount of things that were going to 'save' us like Ledgerx, futures etc.

I guess the main difference with this is that it's finally the thing you could slot into someone's existing trading account without them having to shop elsewhere. That's a big deal no matter how you look at it. Not sure what the uptake would be in the first year or two but it's a useful brick in the foundations.

Again, it doesn't matter whether or not the upcoming ETF directly affects the spot market, the important factor is that every share is backed by its worth in Bitcoin (coins that will be taken out of circulation). The main point; if you as liquidity provider run out of coins, what do you think will happen? They will either buy stock from exchanges or try to obtain coins elsewhere. Given the fact that there is so much demand for OTC deals, the liquidity providers will have to buy from exchanges in order to fill up their reserve.

Also don't forget that this is just one of the many ETF's that will be fighting for volume. Eventually they will cause the market to dry up if the demand is fierce enough.

I think the price action will play out similarly to the action around the launch of the Bitcoin futures.
Buy the rumor, sell the news should be the best play here.

The price will most likely increase in advance of the launch date and afterwards will come down unless
a new catalyst emerges that would allow a continuation of a substantial price increase. I also think that
an ETF would see less investments than people expect.

in the USA, accredited investor = net worth of at least $1M (excluding value of primary residence) or annual income of $200k+. so i guess it is. as i recall, the grayscale application came with the same caveats.


that's the vibe i get it. pump it!

haven't heard a convincing reason why it matters. i've never bought the idea that accredited/institutional investors need to wait for an ETF to invest. there are reputable custody solutions and a robust OTC market already today. when blackrock says that institutions aren't expressing interest for these products, i don't think they're lying. remember, these people are dinosaurs. they're gonna be chasing after the market. why are people waiting for them to pump the market? :)


you can do that with GBTC, ledgerX, XBT Provider (swedish ETN)---all available through standard online brokers. and also regulated futures too.

hype, hype and more hype....

I kinda agree with you there that prior to aug 10, btc will start moving a bit sharply upwards though whether it will continue or not would depend on whether etf is approved or not. If approved, confidence would liklely soar and a that's probably when we'll see a legitimate bull run happening. If it doesn't get approved, then good luck lol.

And we see it right now, price is very close to 8k $ and ETF is making profit for some people, no matter how it will end. However, I agree that it would be good that SEC makes a positive decision, even big investors have opportunities today to buy BTC, some of them maybe just wait something like this.



If investors show great interest for BTC ETF and start buying large quantities from exchanges there is no doubt that price will go far away from the Moon., In such a scenario some speculation regarding price are become pretty realistic, six figures numbers in 3-4 years or maybe even sooner?

Do you have any opinion about how much money should enter the market to dry it up, we are probably talking about trillions $?

There would be plenty of coins ready to meet it if figures got silly. I do not believe most people when they say they're sticking to BTC no matter what. Only a small proportion are true believers. The rest believe in a large bank balance but won't admit it to stay looking cool.

Having said that there really aren't that many to grab.

Technically (globally speaking) there are less than or close to 1 million directly available coins at current levels. If the price gets high enough more people will get motivated to wake up their cold wallet coins and dump them on the market, which happened last year as well. The market drying up will need a couple of years at the minimum because we have to cycle through the pumps and dumps. Every bull run peak is higher than the previous one, and that should motivate old hands to unload their coins.

In the end it's not just about the money, but the use. If LN gets up and running and people will be financially incentivized to run a node, which is the case, then they won't sell their coins but scoop up passive income in Bitcoin due to people using their liquidity and node to hop through. It's the first ever time in the history of Bitcoin that you can earn passive income without any risks and without having a third party control your funds. It's a big deal.

There are many indicators which tell you how insanely undervalued Bitcoin is.

My favorites are (beside the fact that indeed there's less than 1 million coins actually available, or at least moving around)

-There are like 35 million millionaires in the world right now, in USD terms. If they all wanted 1 BTC, even if the total supply was available, there wouldn't be enough, since there would only be 21 million, but the actually supply is 16 million, which as we said before, realistically there's like 1 million coins actually "for sale".

-The richest guy in the world is worth more than the entire marketcap of Bitcoin (Bezos)

-The dotcom bubble peaked at near 7 trillion, then Amazon went much higher than that 10 years later. We have never been anywhere near 7 trillion on the entire crypto ecosystem combined

Conclusion: Bitcoin has been, and continues being, insanely underrated.

Generally the market always anticipates the important decisions of the competent bodies; the stock and bond market for many months while the cryptocurrency of a few weeks.

Personally I do not think the SEC approves the first ETF in the history of Bitcoin this August, because the chart today is not saying this! but everything can change in a few hours / days, and we might witness a sudden boom in prices or a violent fall.

In any case who has no positions in place, I recommend waiting; there can be enormous speculation, from one to the other, in those days and many people can get hurt a lot.

Just want to point out this is ENTIRELY different that the launch of futures.

If ETF is approved we are talking about allowing traditional investors to invest in actual Bitcoin in a way they understand and in a way that is easy for them to comprehend. It opens up a huge new market.

Futures on the otherhand was about allowing Wall St to buy paper bitcoins that had nothing to do with the real thing. They weren't actually investing in Bitcoin, just betting on the price. Plus most of it was so they could short it. So there was no actual direct gain for Bitcoin from the launch of futures, the hype around it (which caused the Nov-Dec mania phase of the bull run last year) was because everyone saw Futures as the first step to getting Wall St in on actually investing in Bitcoin through stuff like ETFs! So if this ETF gets approved that means now we've finally got the real thing. And last time it was just hype around something that people thought would eventually lead to the real thing and that made Bitcoin go from $6k to $20k!

That said, I think the effect will be gradual. If it gets approved I think we'll see a big thousand dollar or so spike on the news and then a slow bull market for a while. This would all be smart money buying in on the hype before the ETF actually comes out and starts directly moving up the price. An ETF launch would not tank the market like what happened from Futures (which was entirely based on hype of what that would eventually lead to) at the tail end of a long bull run. I'm guessing ETF would slowly build up over months and years so outside of some big pops upward in price after approval I think it would just be the catalyst for the start of the next bull market that will probably cover 2019 and 2020. I think it'll be a while until we see that mainstreet FOMO like we saw at the end of last year because those people are still reeling from the crash.

Basically I could see an approved ETF boost Bitcoin over $10k this Fall and be the catalyst for a new long bull run that sometime next year perhaps starts another round of FOMO from the public which in conjunction with ETF and institutional investors getting in more and more I think we could see $100k in the next 2 years.

that's just not true. there is already a live bitcoin ETN that has more volume than most ETFs in existence. anyone with an interactive broker account can invest---institutions, retail, whatever! it's how mark cuban invested in BTC, and it's how any large investor who doesn't want to tailor a custody arrangement would probably invest. ledgerX swaps/options have also steadily risen in volume over the year (though still paltry).

the primary reason ETFs exist is for speculative trading---intraday, short selling/margin. mutual funds traditionally got priced once per day, and comex commodity exchange hours are only 10:30am-3pm. this is why ETFs exist. they're not primarily for "traditional long term investors"---they're for speculative trading, especially short term.


ETF shares are literally paper bitcoins.......

so weird how bitcoiners get all paranoid about "paper gold" and then go around acting like ETF shares are actual bitcoins. :D

Completely depends on the individual proposal. This SolidX one is backed by real coins. The KNCminer ETN is voluntarily backed by real ones.

No doubt in future there will be paper ones, presumably based off futures. But for now if people buy into this one then SolidX has to have the bitcoins to match it.

that wasn't to say ETFs are debt notes per se (ETNs are), but that they are paper substitutes for real BTC.

in both cases, you're trading a security/contract that is "backed" and you're trusting counterparties to be honest (i.e. your contracts are backed by actual value and you will be paid when you try to withdraw).

an ETF is different in that there is technically no "credit risk" beyond the issuer playing games with its assets (WEX and the chinese exchanges come to mind). but then you've got custody/insurance risk and closure risk (and in case of disaster, you will not be paid the underlying but liquidated to cash and probably tied up for many months if not years). beyond that, similar risk can also manifest as disparity from the underlying index. here's one example (https://www.wsj.com/articles/should-you-fear-the-etf-1449457201):


ETFs can face disastrous liquidity problems during high volatility and especially during downturns. and during these times, "backing" means fuck all, especially when your account is being liquidated.

but the larger point is about delivery. ETFs only ever liquidate to cash, it doesn't matter what's underlying. if anything bad happens, ever, you will get USD cash (at best), and not necessarily in the amount that is equivalent to the underlying value. (and while you're waiting to be paid over years perhaps, maybe another BTC bubble occurs)

when the true BTC liquidity crisis occurs and price is skyrocketing in the millions of USD, you don't want to be exposed to an ETF. you won't necessarily be able to sell anywhere near spot prices and you may get caught in market halts and liquidations while the rest of the BTC market chugs along.

except that there are REAL bitcoins backing them up, so they aren't paper bitcoins, they're real bitcoins being held by the institution providing the ETF, not simply just betting on the future price of bitcoin which is what futures are. ETF will take up actual Bitcoin supply, something that futures don't do. And that is how the price goes up.

So yeah its an entirely different animal than futures. Not only is it buying into bitcoin (as opposed to going short which is what most people who had interest in futures wanted them for), but its buying actual real bitcoin which is held by the ETF instead of by the clients. Futures is to sell bets on what the price will be. Nothing to do with actual investing and actual taking up supply.

It will be basically another derrivative market. I mean we do not need ETF's to actually buy the promise of a long or short for the price of bitcoin. We need people to actually buy the coins itself, not bet on the outcome. Will this affect the price of bitcoin in a good way? Yes for sure it will have a great affect. Is this good for bitcoin? No it is not, it has the potential to take bitcoin really high but also bring it way down as well.

I believe the ETF being considered is not for some derivative of Bitcoin but to hold actual Bitcoin. The firm would be buying actual Bitcoin to hold for all their ETF clients. It's no different than Coinbase buying for institutional investors, they'll be buying real Bitcoin. By all accounts it seems Bitcoin ETFs would be very popular as most of the investment community doesn't understand or want to deal with the workings of bitcoin but wants access to Bitcoin's gains, and an ETF is exactly how they would do that. Over time it could bring in tens of billions of dollars, which could correspond to tens of thousands in the Bitcoin price. Think of like 20 million people deciding to put 2% of their whole portfolio in Bitcoin. That'd be tens of billions without even getting into the big money investors. An ETF could be the catalyst that starts the next ride up to like $100k over the next year or two.

1 million coins is actually a very small amount considering that we have 17+ million mined coins, some of that is surely lost over time, but that means the majority of BTC waiting some better time to enter the market. I assumed that we need to wait for years in order to have a situation where demand exceeds supply. On the other hand LN "business" should definitely be a lucrative job for those who would know to take advantage of it.



It is a very big number of millionaires, the question is only whether they are interested to invest in BTC and move even small % of their wealth from stocks, gold, silver or fiat. Maybe ETF will change that, and even if 10% of them want to have 1 BTC, it is huge number which markets can not satisfy at this time.

I agree that BTC has an incredible potential, still insufficiently recognized by majority of big players. Optimists would say they just wait for the right moment, maybe they wait ETF or some other big thing - but that moment will come, there is no doubt about it.

The price of BTC should be helpful. If the etf is successful, a lot of money will enter the encrypted market, and the price of BTC may break the previous high.

I think that we will rise towards 9000 usd, and upon hitting 10k see some retracement. I'd like to think we could finished above 10k by the end of the year. We have to be realistic 40k-50k is far off and will take a lot of sustained institutional investment and interest. Still early days for the king.

It will be interesting for sure to see what will happen, especially so with how more and more people treat Bitcoin as gold. I hold some gold as well and it started way before I discovered Bitcoin. I wanted to have something with value that I can use in case fiat for whatever reason is no longer the main unit of exchange. I was accumulating gold, and almost stopped doing so after finding out that Bitcoin is the digital equivalent of gold. I was never planned to sell my gold, just spend them when needed and the same applies to Bitcoin for me. If more people start to do the same, and I'm sure it's growing, the value will shoot up in the most badass way.

buying ETF shares means betting on the future price of bitcoin too.....

and i really hope the apparent irony of an ETF for a P2P currency is not lost on people here. :D

bitcoin futures with real delivery would be more important to the market because it would provide capital flow to the spot market. that's an actual avenue for BTC liquidity, which an ETF is not. you buy ETF shares for cash, and you sell them for cash, period. there is an assumption of arbitrage and therefore tracking the underlying, but as pointed out above that isn't necessarily the case at all.


the supply is already locked up. you think solidx and winklevoss are waiting for SEC approval to buy the coins backing their trusts? :)

I'm not sure what people actually think about BTC, most of people is here for quick earnings - buy low/sell high and it will take time to start experiencing it as a store of value. The biggest problem is BTC volatility, people are just scared that they could lose everything, so for most people it is just risk investment for now.
 


I am also thinking that those who will provide ETF services certainly accumulate BTC for some time, now they maybe just buy even more and this process is likely to continue. ETF will be approved sooner or later and it need real BTC, only question is how much will be interest from big investors.


There is some news that SEC is delayed decisions regarding some of ETFs, but it currently does not affect this main ETF from VanEck and SolidX. However is not impossible that SEC delay even this decision, it may be in next month, but it is not mandatory.

https://www.coindesk.com/sec-delays-decision-on-direxions-bitcoin-etfs-until-september/

I think if the ETF can be approved, then this will be a historic moment in the cryptocurrency market, and the convenience offered by ETH is likely to win the bull market!

So,  it's not so bad. We have until September to continue to see the Bitcoin price increasing.  For people like me who don't believe to see ETF approved at least,  we have something positive, 12 extra month.  Vague explanation from the SEC to explain the postpone by the way

https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1021795224958455810

According to this geezer they can stretch out their decision for this particular application until February 2019. I don't think the market will be able sustain its FOMO until then somehow.

I am not sure to get what he is saying
First, he explains how the extensions work there
https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1021795228758548480

And then he says it's the last extension
https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1021795231803559937
"This is the third & final extension allowed by law -- 15 U.S.C. § 78s(b)(2), in case you were wondering."

If the last extension ends on September 21, then what is the february 2019date ???

Another extension?

https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/cboebzx/2018/34-83520.pdf

Looks like the first proposal for this was June 26th so it lines up with what he laid out for the other application he lists which dragged out for 240 days.

There's so little info that's being taken in that I'm sure someone like this knows more than your average Reddit zombie. I still see people calling it the CBOE ETF when all they're doing is applying for a rule change on behalf of the applicants.

By what was published in tweet from Jake Chervinsky it seems that final day for decision is actually March 4, 2019 because notice was published on July 2 and according to his interpretation weekends days are not counted in total days.


It seems that around these dates there is a real confusion, and maybe even March 4 is not final date. For now this does not affect the price, let's see how long and how high we can ride on this wave :)

If there will be negative decision let's say to EOY period (with is unlikely imo) there is going to be a massive hit in Bitcoin price and we should consider a lower leveles than 5kUSD or even 4,5kUSD.

I just hope SEC will not make a negative decision at the first deadline in August, it would most likely have a negative impact on market - but I am not sure that such decision can shake up market to drop under 5000$.

VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust representatives are pretty confident that this time they have much greater chance than before, because they work on improvements and learn from mistakes. You can read more here : Proposed VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust ETF is still a green light (https://www.maxcryptonews.com/proposed-vaneck-solidx-etf-is-still-a-green-light)

On one side I'm quite happy with these financial instruments, and on the other side I would prefer them to not exist at all.

The positive side of having these instruments is that it grants Bitcoin legitimacy, which is a very important factor when it comes to shaking off altcoins that are slowly catching up due to people's stupidity.

The negative side is that it will turn Bitcoin into a market controlled by institutions just like how they control the prices of stocks and other assets. Bitcoin has grown too large to not be noticed by institutions.

Overall, with or without an ETF, the price will break new highs later on anyway. It only requires a bit more patience.