ETF approving in August, how much it will affect the price?

[carlisle1]

I think saying "anyone" is a bit misleading. Correct me if im wrong, but you are going to need to invest 25 BTC minimum with this ETF, so it's not designed for the average joe, only for people that are probably millionaires already. Of course, this doesn't change the very bullish news, since the % of millionaires are the % that owns most of the wealth anyway.

I recently made a thread analyzing the price of Gold before the ETF and after the ETF, and how it looks exactly as Bitcoin does now right before the ETF, which would coincide and confirm the triple bottom scenario as the definitive bottom before the next big pump.

If this is the case,i guess were too far from reality since this is the biggest event that more members expect to bring people to recovering from the half year losses.is this how huge to be part of etf?25 bitcoin each?damn big amount

I cant give prediction with this as this was the first time i heard about the investments capital

[1Referee]

Something of note: an ETF does not provide access to bitcoin. The trustee controls the fund and issues shares. No spot BTC will be bought.

It may not provide direct access to Bitcoin, but every ETF share bought means that in the background x number of Bitcoins are being taken out of circulation. If the reserve runs out of coins, coins will need to be bought up and be put in the reserve to allow the next ETF shares to be fully backed. Whether it happens directly or indirectly, the only thing that matters is that coins will be taken out of circulation.

An ETF may increase ease of access to Bitcoin exposure, but remember, ETF investors (and inverse ETF traders as the case may be) can also get that exposure through futures markets.

Bitcoin futures are too much of a gambling-like instrument. At the end of the contract date you either win or lose, which isn't something very suitable for long term oriented investors. An ETF is far more flexible and can be held for the long term just like how you are holding your Bitcoins, but then ETF holders don't actually have any Bitcoins, just the long term exposure.

[Digital_Lord]

I do not care if it gets approved or not. The important news bit here is that it is being tried relentlessly by those people who wants millionaires in this space. If we can get people who are millionaires and billionaires into crypto space they will not buy 1 bitcoin, they will try to buy as many as they want which
probably be like at least %1 of their portfolio. That can be billions of dollars poured into this. Even if it gets disapproved in the end it will be tried again and again until it succeeds and one day we will have a huge spike the likes we have never seen before.

[European Central Bank]

https://theicojournal.com/source-bitcoin-etf-nearly-certain-to-win-approval-later-this-year/

according to 'back channel' sources it's looking like a strong possibility. i wouldn't go betting everything on it. these places must have hundreds of employees and most won't have the slightest clue about what their bosses want to see when they make decisions this big.

[puremage111]

In the past, we have seen a few attempts of ETF ( exchange-traded fund ) for BTC, but they are rejected by SEC ( US Securities and Exchange Commission ). Now there is a new attempt for ETF from CBOE ( Chicago Board Options Exchange ) for which decision should be made in next month ( August 2018 ).

Unlike past attempts some things have changed and most agree that the chances for acceptance of this ETF are much bigger then before. The biggest change is that SEC recognized BTC as a currency instead securities, and some things are much clearer then before.

Some calculations say that hundreds of billions $ could enter in crypto market and push price even over 40 000$. Thus at first it seems to ETF would be really big thing for BTC regarding ease of investing.

Let me describe how “easy” it is. Once the Securities and Exchange Commission allows Bitcoin ETFs, anyone with a 401K, IRA, or an investment account, like with the following top five broker-dealers, could invest in Bitcoin with a simple click — no wire transfer or credit card fees, no explaining Coinbase, other crypto exchanges, and security hurdles.

https://medium.com/ironwood-rg/how-etfs-can-bring-bitcoin-over-35k-aacc58477b7e

Some calculations say that hundreds of billions $ could enter in crypto market and push price even over 40 000$. Thus at first it seems to ETF would be really big thing for BTC regarding ease of investing.

Its hard to say but i firmly agree that an ETF approval gotta just massively push Btc price upwards, at least a 2x of current and result a $15,000 Bitcoin minimum. Judging based on the existing trader + upcoming institution players if the CBOE ETF really got approve tho

21M of Btc with portion of it which is loss are just not enough for the players in the market
Kinda positive on this

[thecodebear]

If an ETF brought in hundreds of billions it would raise the price of Bitcoin wayyyy higher than $40k. The market cap goes up by a lot more than the amount of money coming in.

I hope the ETF is finally approved. If it is I think that would be the signal we are definitely at the start of the next bull market and should see new ATHs next year. I'm guessing an ETF approval would see an initial BTC price of $1000+ or so just from the news. But the actual incoming flow of new money from ETFs would probably take place over months or years, but it would definitely be a factor in how high the next bull run goes over the next couple of years. I think the biggest immediate thing it would do is really kick off the bull run and convince the market that the bear market is over.

[Anonylz]

If it really happens, i think that bitcoin will easily be touching more than 8 thousand dollars if we are lucky, a little bit more than that and we might be on a bullish season again

[exstasie]

An ETF doesn't create demand. It just allows exposure to the market in a regulated venue, like futures. The launch of CME futures was supposed to be a bullish event; instead it catalyzed a blow-off top and crash.

More importantly, the extremely low volume on CBOE/CME futures suggests there isn't much traditional/institutional interest (yet). Institutions have access, and so does anyone with an Etrade or similar brokerage account. The launch of a listed market simply doesn't create demand.

Fundamentally, markets move in rips and runs due to global supply and demand imbalances. You can't have a post-bubble crash and immediately expect another bubble just because an ETF gets launched. Here's a case in point. At the end of 2012, the SEC approved the first copper ETF ever. What happened? The market crashed for the next three years:

[r32godzilla]

If ETF gets approved,definitely it will have a positive impact on bitcoin price.T here is a doubt that whether the ETF approval would be on August or not.But if it gets approved,then atleast hundreds of millions would be injected in to bitcoin.There would be a considerable decrease in bitcoin supply when compared to its demand.This would induce the price more.

[Rapidgator]

An ETF may increase ease of access to Bitcoin exposure, but remember, ETF investors (and inverse ETF traders as the case may be) can also get that exposure through futures markets.

Bitcoin futures are too much of a gambling-like instrument. At the end of the contract date you either win or lose, which isn't something very suitable for long term oriented investors. An ETF is far more flexible and can be held for the long term just like how you are holding your Bitcoins, but then ETF holders don't actually have any Bitcoins, just the long term exposure.

Here is good time to say about trading fees and position fees on contracts. And yes, we know that there will be some sort of fees on BTC ETF (if an ETF will be approved for sure) but they will be lower than on contracts - more sense in long-term investing here.

[adam1230]

If SEC approves it we will see new all time high levels and before the date of approval we will see some new all time low levels too.
Speculations and manipulations will come around. I hope FOMO will enter the game before it.

[1Referee]

The launch of CME futures was supposed to be a bullish event; instead it catalyzed a blow-off top and crash.

It is bullish in the way that Bitcoin gained more legitimacy, not in the way that it would increase the price. It were most of the noobs who thought it was a tool for capital to flow in this market, but the reality is that there won't be anything flowing in this market at all. Bitcoin futures are an empty product, nothing more nothing less.

At the end of 2012, the SEC approved the first copper ETF ever. What happened? The market crashed for the next three years:

Dig up the charts of the Gold backed ETF that went live in 2003. It's definitely more fruitful than the copper chart you're displaying.

[EcoChavCrypto]

i am only expecting to see it going up by a little, nothing more than that. i would be more than satisfied if bitcoin ever touches $10000 before the end of the year

[LeGaulois]

While most people are saying the Bitcoin price will increase up to the $40,000. I am joining extasie opinion and asking at the same time:
If the decision is negative what do you think will happen to the price? A big slap like it got previously already! Bitcoin could below the $,5000

[gentlemand]

An ETF doesn't create demand. It just allows exposure to the market in a regulated venue, like futures. The launch of CME futures was supposed to be a bullish event; instead it catalyzed a blow-off top and crash.

It was going to blow anyway. It found the nearest excuse to do so.

Futures don't require or touch actual Bitcoin, this application is for actual Bitcoin. That is direct exposure. Futures is not.

The groups involved in this application have had failed ETF applications before.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/06/vaneck-tries-a-third-time-for-a-bitcoin-etf.html

Having CBOE onside might make a difference but the fundamental reasons for the SEC turning them down are little improved since their last attempts.

[adaseb]

Some guy on Reddit analyzed the document and basically said that this ETF doesn't really differ that much from the SolidX ETF which got rejected in the past.

Basically it seems the exchange is different but the result will still be the same.

I am predicting that it will first get postponed a few more months and then in a few months it will get denied, again.

[BitHodler]

Some guy on Reddit analyzed the document and basically said that this ETF doesn't really differ that much from the SolidX ETF which got rejected in the past.

Of course it's not much different, because it's a collaboration between Vaneck and SolidX.

The thing is that this ETF is backed by Bitcoin, is insured, and pretty much excludes a large part of the retail investors because of the $200k entry point. The latter is a very important factor for the SEC apparently.

For some reason they are fine with institutions buying exposure to Bitcoin, but don't want retail investors to do so. The logic behind that might be that institutions do their homework while retailers are more impulsive.

[exstasie]

The launch of CME futures was supposed to be a bullish event; instead it catalyzed a blow-off top and crash.

It is bullish in the way that Bitcoin gained more legitimacy, not in the way that it would increase the price. It were most of the noobs who thought it was a tool for capital to flow in this market, but the reality is that there won't be anything flowing in this market at all. Bitcoin futures are an empty product, nothing more nothing less.

I just don't think these things fundamentally affect supply and demand. ETF shares and futures contracts are only worth the contract backing them, and in all cases (based on the current regulated offerings), there is no BTC settlement and no real capital flow to the spot market. The only application I've heard of for a product that will be settled in BTC is from the ICE, and I don't know how serious they are about bringing it to market.

At the end of 2012, the SEC approved the first copper ETF ever. What happened? The market crashed for the next three years:

Dig up the charts of the Gold backed ETF that went live in 2003. It's definitely more fruitful than the copper chart you're displaying.

If you look at the preceding price action, the market had very clearly bottomed by mid-2001 and sprung into a bull market well before the ETF was launched.

Just pointing out that an ETF won't change the underlying supply and demand cycle. Copper rose 675% and had a classic double top, then the ETF was launched. So of course the market tanked anyway.

Futures don't require or touch actual Bitcoin, this application is for actual Bitcoin. That is direct exposure. Futures is not.

Investors can buy and sell ETF shares for cash. There is no BTC involved. This is no different than cash-settled futures in that respect. It's a security built on the assumption of arbitrage to the spot market.

The only difference is the existence of a trust funded with the underlying asset. No serious applicant isn't funded at this stage. It's not like they're going to wait for SEC approval and then try to buy the BTC at market.

[kojoannan]

Exchange Traded fund is the much talked in cryptocurrency community and the hope of its approval is the main factor that is making bitcoin price gone bull run  in the past few days. IF bitcoins can get to 25,000 usd by December of this year, then I think it will be the approval of this ETF

[hot_ads]

I think the price of BTC will go up before ETF, and the price of BTC will continue to go down after the result of ETF comes out, but these are all predictions.