Bitcoin Forum

Hi folks,
I literally forgot where I saw this picture and who posted it (but thanks anyway to the poster who shared this):


https://cdn3.imggmi.com/uploads/2018/12/31/2656272c95f327f1be8499cccc4cea94-full.png


I saved this picture and put it on my desktop. I keep it to see how accurate it could prove to be, or not.

So it says 2019 will be very mediocre, following the current trend and that 2020 could be very exciting.

I am starting this thread to ask for opinions, of course this chart looks too simplistic and extremely bullish in the long term, but any constructive opinion is more than welcome. Cheers.

Welp. another 2 years stuck between 3000 and 4000. I don't believe that bitcoin can be stuck in that price range for so long (now that it is fairly well positioned in the public spotlight) only to then go on another big bull run like before. If we're going to see new heights it's going to need to start sometime in the next year.

It looks like a logical analysis for price analysis. But I don't believe that the technical analysis works on the long-term frames in cryptocurrency. Other sectors in which the technical analysis works have being available for a long time and the majority are acting in accordance with it, but crypto is different.

I think it’s highly likely that we see low volatility & a period off accumulation for about 1 calender year.
Q3 of 2020 things will get exciting as we see the next bull ruj.

I would say 1 calendar year minimum, but I would be prepared for 2-3 like we've had in the past. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing either. The bull run at the end of last year was based off pure speculation, and the number of scam ICOs launched was off the charts. A prolonged bear market will flush out all the people who are here just with a "get-rich-quick" mentality, and hopefully many, many altcoins will die off. Once we get back to focusing on bitcoin and its widespread adoption, then we can start to see some real growth rather than just speculation driven madness.

I don't really like to speculate because it is very inaccurate especialy long-term but that being said.
Today I was playing with graphs, lines, averages, I was reasearching history and I have came with something very close to what OP has suggested.
I think that we have just stepped into Bear market and we will be there for the next 2-3 years until we start to see progress in price action.

We have to remember what a crazy run we have had in 2017 until 2018. Market needs to take a break and settle down. People need to recover from all that hype, ICOs, and high emotions. Whales have left the Bear market in search for new profits instead of sitting here, making losses while HODLing. Smart traders don't like to have funds sitting around doing nothing.
If history repeats by 2022-23 we could see new ATH at around 120k. (very rough number) It is so difficult to know with crypto because everything is still so new and potential is enormous. Imagine when we will look at 20k ATH chart and compare it to that from 2014 which now looks barely visible on chart.

I hope that I get suprised like I did when BTC surpassed 10k.
Whatever happens I love BTC and blockchain because it is unique. I was using BTC since almost early days because of it's technology and this is why now I feel confident about it's future.

EDIT: I am saving this post so in the future we can all have laugh at it.

Bakkt is looking good so far in the initial stages, this could put fuel on the rocket and acceleration may happen before we expect in graphs like the one you posted, which btw is a pretty reasonable one, the price needs to get nice and stretched for a couple of years before the next huge FOMO ensues. However fundamentals are king and things like Bakkt are new services in which institutions can potentially have $billionaire demand, contracts which must be settled with the underlying asset, in other words they must buy the bitcoins. These things did not exist in the primitive status of Bitcoin during the previous halvings.

That chart and analysis looks realistic, I'm expecting thay we will get a bump by this Q1 of 2019 and afterwards, people will profit from that bump which will lead to continue the bear we are experiencing for almost a year now.

But I'll let things happen and wont depend to anyone's analysis anymore since most of them failed. 2019 can be the extension of this bear and 2020 shall put that bear to hibernate, I'm prepared with any of it anyway and Im very optimistic with the fundamentals and possible adoptions coming.

I agree that Bakkt is only public thing we know for now (if we exempt last dead line for VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust ETF), which can bring a positive change to the market. I see they completed first funding round and get over 180$ million, and only problem is launching date which can not be precisely defined, but it is expected to be in the first half of this year.

I personally think this year will be marked by a slow recovery and halving expectations in next year, but I am open for all the possibilities. Since I am with BTC for several years and looking at this project in the long term I certainly agree with the chart. It say 160k $ by 2023, Tim Draper predict 250k $ by 2022 - I would be happy with 100k $ or even lower price.

You just to remember that everything works on cycle and because the market is still fairly young and we only have a small sample data, it makes sense to look at it and predict that we might see the price moving sideways this year. That's what the last cycle tells us if you look at the chart, it might give us a different pattern in 2019-2020, but lets look at it in the bright side. If the patterns holds true then at least we can prepare ourselves as early as this time so that we won't get disappointed.

On thing though about the last bitcoin block halving is that it took months (as far as I can remember) though before we finally see some reversal and the eventual all-time-high in 2017.

What makes you think this chart looks realistic?
I posted to ask your opinion, this is a really question here :)
I am asking because I was not there during the last halving. I am curious to hear some constructive opinions. Near $100,000 seems like absolutely crazy in such a short period of time.

That doesn't show 2019 as "mediocre" it shows 2019 as horrible, it has already gone down so much that at one point bitcoin goes back to 3000 dollars and even maybe less before it starts to go up. However, these things always forget one thing, the outside affects made by the whales. Yes, by the charts it looks like this is definitely probable and possible however we were all thinking bitcoin could go up at 6500 but it went down to as much as $3200 at one point because of one big bear run by the whales.

Charts miss those things and maybe who knows tomorrow someone with 30 thousand bitcoins will sell all of it and we will be screwed or a huge bank will invest couple billion dollars in one sitting and the price will increase, we never know about those things and charts can't predict those things.

Also, according to the chart bitcoin will not be going up in the next 2 years, 2020 ends with 3500 which is less than current price, I see NO possible way bitcoin doesn't go up at all in the next 2 years, that is impossible.

I see way more value in a streamlined growth process in terms of having Bitcoin's fundamentals improve, because speculative demand relies on cycles, while the use aspect has a continuous level of demand to it that should keep people's interest in Bitcoin high enough. Bakkt looks good on paper, the $180 million funding round looks good too, but the only thing they need is regulatory approval to go live, and they don't have that yet.

Regulators aren't fools. They know the importance of these events, especially when it comes to the potential effect on the market of the underlying asset, which will make them think twice before letting them go through. Bakkt has mass appeal, which can't be underestimated, and regulators don't.

Bitcoin went from steady $400s to peak of $20k in less than 2 years, and this is the same jump from $2ks 2019 (presuming it goes that low) to $100k in late 2021. I don't see anything crazy about it if this happens, because it happened before.
The 2017 halving pump peaked at 20x price of the previous halving pump in late 2013. If the next halving pump peaks at less than 5x the previous halving pump I'd be surprised, and 5x is $100k.

I think that in 2019 it is still not able to restore market conditions such as 2017, in 2019 it will be a recovery process and the jump will likely be seen in 2020.

Don't forget the halfing event sometime in 2020. If I remember correctly, about 6 months before the halfing, btc price will be locked in for the event, which means it will get interesting in Nov/Dec 2019.

I don't buy what you are saying for a second. I think it takes several months after the actual halving for the reduced new supply of coins to be felt so 2021 we will see the real effect of the halving. This has been the way it's gone for all previous halvings.

I can see that history suggests will have a long stagnant period but I'm not sure that history can keep repeating itself. Like bitcoin cannot keep going through 100x bubbles and 80%+ crashes it also probably cannot survive for multiple years of stagnancy now that so many people keep an eye on it.

Past performance does not predict future results. It is entirely possible, as you say, that the price doesn't dip any more and climbs up to $100k in the next 2 years. It is also entirely possible we fall back to $3k or lower and stay there for 2-3 years. The problems with charts like this, which try to retrospectively fit patterns to the data, is that they are only right until they aren't, and you have no way of predicting when they will stop being right. I could go and find 100 charts from this time last year which nicely drawn lines on them showing how the bull run is going to continue until $50k, which obviously didn't happen.

I'm obviously bullish long term, otherwise I wouldn't be here, but just be wary of pinning all your hopes on a guaranteed price rise within a set time frame, or reaching a target value by a target data. Prolonged bear markets have happened before, and they will happen again.

Longterm bullish but the trend for a bull market is still in and isnt showing any signs of ending in the near future.

All i cant take from the graph is we will be dancing around $3k - $4k most of 2019 and can expect a bull run from sometime 2020 onwards.

The halving effect will start from May 2019 when people start to accumulate. The price starts to rise and miners will also return increasing the difficulty as a result. Dec 2019 will certainly be a good time for bitcoin hodlers (better than it was in 2018)

This chart actually state that 2019 will be very mediocre and 2020 very boring year. But I believe the chart is wrong and in reality 2019 will be very boring year and 2020 exciting.

Then that should give everyone more than enough time to buy as much "cheap" coins as they can in preparation for the next rally.

This chart might be the one closer to what you are saying.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dvbys5oWoAEFhCE?format=jpg&name=large

Sorry nocoiners, no excuses, and we did not get lucky. 8)

that means the lowest point will occur at the end of this year? and the peak of the bull will occur at the end of 2023? oh this is too long, the bull happens every two years.

the logarithmic growth theory is one school of thought about bitcoin price cycles. i think there's some validity to it but like you, i think it's a tad simplistic---those curves will definitely be adjusted to fit future price data.

one reason i lend the log trend idea some credence is that it explains why the cycles take longer and longer as time goes on.

Simplistic? But you can't deny how really simple those long term patterns are.

From a newbie's perspective. If the next curve up, more or less, follows where the price in the chart is going, would only be then that they accept it as, more or less, accurate? I believe it would be riskier not to take their opportunity to buy now. 8)

Maybe, maybe not, but certainly it looks like 3000 seems to be a great psychological support a lot has been waiting for and it falls on the long term support anyway. However, it is a market, and we cannot guarantee anything yet although, knowing what the pre and post-halving usually tend to bring, I guess there is still great hope long term. Looking at the situation of things, this year would really be a very boring one, but at least, not a bad time to be accumulating for those who are smart.

So if $3000 is the support, we cannot do anything while we could only following the price. I think no matter how much the price will be, as long as we can keep making a profit, it doesn't matter for us and even I am sure that it will be a good time for the altcoin to rise back again. I see that if bitcoin is on the one point level, the altcoin can increase so high and there will be a jump of the altcoin price to break the next wall. The market will have many movements and the altcoin will alive again :D

It is 4 years and not 2. And this time should happen earlier then in 4 because everyone expect it and they will want to be ahead of others.

No. First off, halving effects don't happen before the actual halving, they happen afterwards as the market adjusts to the new lesser amount of newly mined coins being offered on exchanges. Secondly, accumulation periods are not marked by increased prices, they are marked by sideways prices after a true bottom is reached. I doubt very seriously if the true bottom of this bear market has been reached.

You may be right, but there is always the unkown factor of whether bitcoin will pump again. Nobody knows for sure, and this fear of the unknown keeps people in the same mindset and keeps them from jumping the gun, or accumulating no matter the price.

Something unexpected may happen in any moment and such charts will have to be corrected very quickly. It's enough for Bitcoin to become the official currency of a medium-sized country, or Google and McDonalds will accept it, to completely change this lines. We have to remember, that this is just speculation.

I don't see how any of those things are possible with the current inability to scale.

lol...I can just imagine what 2020 is going to be. The wait for it is really spiking up and people are anticipating for a price we have never seen before. Anyways, if indeed that's gonna be the case then I think we are gonna have a little rough year this year. In all these, one thing that I wish for most is that crypto stays for that long and I believe we can. I think now we've already gotten over the argument crypto is gonna die. We're here to stay.

Pretty much everyone expects some sort of price growth around the next halving, and also most people have noted the cyclicity of Bitcoin's price. This might even turn into some sort of self-fulfilling prophesy when those patterns will hold true because most people will believe that they will hold true, and will act accordingly, thus fulfilling them.

However, I have some doubts that we'll have such a big magnitude (6 figures) in the next cycle. The more mature the market is, the less volatility there will be.

The graphic looks logical to all bitcoin believers. I think each of us who passed the previous halving put a lot expectations on the next one.

Or it might be simple Bitcoin economics working in practice. There is more behind the value of Bitcoin than markets, and trading in my opinion.


The same might have been said of "$20,000 on 2017" when Bitcoin was trading on $200 on 2014. 8)

Graphs that look real and analysis that adjust to history, we will learn this will still have the patience to find improvements in the next few months. It will be a valuable lesson by taking into account all the market movements that occur, high volumes will follow.

" This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. "

 ;D

before January 2018 we had a market that did not suffer much from the pressure of governments and banks .... people from many countries had very easy to buy bitcoin and they were easy to invest in ICOs. Banks and governments have seen bitcoin rise from $ 1000 to $ 20,000 in a year and this has piqued their attention and started to witch hunt. just look at India's case and then with the $ 20,000 drop to $ 4000, many people must have given up bitcoin. By this I mean that the next halving may cause the price to increase, but I doubt we will see large increases in price. Unless this market is legalized by many countries and many people have facilities to buy and sell bitcoin without having problems with governments and banks

All I'm currently seeing is BTC forming a bull flag on 1D charts and that inverse head and shoulders is indicating that there might be a bull run hidden in the near future, be it through the Bakkt hype or the accumulation may become the reason for them to give it a shot once again upside before taking it down back for them to be able to make more and more BTC through shorting. It's good to see that 2020 will probably be the year Satoshi and we all have been waiting for, but I think that organic growth is much better than a straight pump.

I think your point of view is correct. simply because the world's economy has yet to show signs of recovery, Apple has just dropped its stock price and investors still have bloodbath.
recovery doesn't happen too soon as we think. It will take a lot of time and 2020 will be an exciting year.

don't get me wrong---i think it's a good theory and there's moderate evidence for it. there's just two problems. for one thing, we're only looking at a limited period. with another decade or two of data, the path may look completely different. if bitcoin adoption follows the curve of internet or smart phone adoption, logarithmic growth projections probably aren't fast enough to account for it.

the other thing is it involves curve-fitting. on a longer time line, the logarithmic regression channel bounds won't look like they do today. if the theory is accurate though, it'll still look more or less accurate like you say.

Maybe this graphics is close to reality, but in my opinion i think that the bitcoin price this year will be higher than 15,000$ and we can have a nice profit if the bitcoin was bought now or for long holders. Anyway i still hold what i have for a better market.

It is just an speculated price for the upcoming year but it doesn't really give the exact result of the market. We all know that the market is beyond unpredictable and people still doing some prediction shit like bitcoin would gradually rise up to $100k but it turns out that it goes the other way.

Usually the pattern of the long term consolidation that comes with the market after a huge bear market. The whole of 2018 was all bearish with some little bit of upward rallies in between, let's see how the whole halving would come to be and in that case, it looks like there would be nothing much to expect until towards the end of 2019 or even 2020 as the case may be. This would be a whole lot long boring moment for bitcoin, but usually in cases like that, I guess this is where we might be seeing some bullishness for altcoins anyway so there could still be some little action in the other assets hopefully.

But I believe 10 years of data, 3 major bubbles, and 2 halvings might be enough to make a fairly accurate prediction of the future.


Although we do agree that, despite inaccuracies, Bitcoin will reach 6 digits, right? 8)

I don't have much knowledge about long analysis. but the image pattern shows the forecast for 2020. I think there are many predictions and results no one can ever know for sure.
I believe in the middle of this year if there are no more rumors, the market will stabilize again.

In my personal opinion, I don't really believe with just chart predictions, there are still many things out there that can bring it/influence it wherever it goes. We are easy to predict but the reality is sometimes often difficult to predict with certainty, which clearly seems to me this year could be a good development from a drastic decline

The examples were wrong, I'm sorry. My point is that one big event can completely change the future of Bitcoin price. It does not necessarily have to be a positive event, it can be negative, or completely neutral, such as the invention of a new, better technology than blockchain. Also enough will be just to improve Blockchain (fork), in such a way that it will bypass Bitcoin and create Bitcoin II, which will take over. This is enough, for long-term predictions, to not work. My opinin is that technical analysis on cryptocurrencies, works only in the short-term.

Well if you put a basic technical analysis, a trend line, there near 2019 it would most probably be close to it. And based on that curve drawing it most likely will break that trend line of support.

But its the market no one knows what will happen when it hits that support line. It might be a base who knows.

Most of the time reality hurts, the anticipation that we had mostly failed as the directions can be played by the big bag holders, what we wanted to go can be change by whales who invested a lots to make sure that they have the majority, so each time they move the momentum will easily be change, though it's good to have a good looks and have a goal finding success this coming year but always have a sets of plans and good alternative.

I just do not understand the graph probably there were lack of data in presented in the axis of the graph. Anyway, it seems that this is happening and the best thing is that a market price for crypto could be predicted but not 100% it will be just a high chances that it will come to that point. I just want to ask if crypto in 2019 would be good? How about the ETF would it affect crypto market if it will not be approve?

LOL yes Bitcoin is not solely reliable on itself. If we will see a huge financial crysis this or next year then Bitcoin Bull market will get delayed. But it cant be for long.

Though past results do not necessarily repeat themselves, that graph looks like a probable prediction. In my opinion anyway. Different events might delay or accelerate those patterns, but they look spot on to me. Only time can tell...