Bitcoin, 2019 and next halving

[reactorjuno]

Hi folks,
I literally forgot where I saw this picture and who posted it (but thanks anyway to the poster who shared this):





I saved this picture and put it on my desktop. I keep it to see how accurate it could prove to be, or not.

So it says 2019 will be very mediocre, following the current trend and that 2020 could be very exciting.

I am starting this thread to ask for opinions, of course this chart looks too simplistic and extremely bullish in the long term, but any constructive opinion is more than welcome. Cheers.

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[tdrinker]

Welp. another 2 years stuck between 3000 and 4000. I don't believe that bitcoin can be stuck in that price range for so long (now that it is fairly well positioned in the public spotlight) only to then go on another big bull run like before. If we're going to see new heights it's going to need to start sometime in the next year.

[farosa]

It looks like a logical analysis for price analysis. But I don't believe that the technical analysis works on the long-term frames in cryptocurrency. Other sectors in which the technical analysis works have being available for a long time and the majority are acting in accordance with it, but crypto is different.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I think it’s highly likely that we see low volatility & a period off accumulation for about 1 calender year.
Q3 of 2020 things will get exciting as we see the next bull ruj.

[o_e_l_e_o]

I think it’s highly likely that we see low volatility & a period off accumulation for about 1 calender year.

I would say 1 calendar year minimum, but I would be prepared for 2-3 like we've had in the past. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing either. The bull run at the end of last year was based off pure speculation, and the number of scam ICOs launched was off the charts. A prolonged bear market will flush out all the people who are here just with a "get-rich-quick" mentality, and hopefully many, many altcoins will die off. Once we get back to focusing on bitcoin and its widespread adoption, then we can start to see some real growth rather than just speculation driven madness.

[RussaX]

I don't really like to speculate because it is very inaccurate especialy long-term but that being said.
Today I was playing with graphs, lines, averages, I was reasearching history and I have came with something very close to what OP has suggested.
I think that we have just stepped into Bear market and we will be there for the next 2-3 years until we start to see progress in price action.

We have to remember what a crazy run we have had in 2017 until 2018. Market needs to take a break and settle down. People need to recover from all that hype, ICOs, and high emotions. Whales have left the Bear market in search for new profits instead of sitting here, making losses while HODLing. Smart traders don't like to have funds sitting around doing nothing.
If history repeats by 2022-23 we could see new ATH at around 120k. (very rough number) It is so difficult to know with crypto because everything is still so new and potential is enormous. Imagine when we will look at 20k ATH chart and compare it to that from 2014 which now looks barely visible on chart.

I hope that I get suprised like I did when BTC surpassed 10k.
Whatever happens I love BTC and blockchain because it is unique. I was using BTC since almost early days because of it's technology and this is why now I feel confident about it's future.

EDIT: I am saving this post so in the future we can all have laugh at it.

[cellard]

Bakkt is looking good so far in the initial stages, this could put fuel on the rocket and acceleration may happen before we expect in graphs like the one you posted, which btw is a pretty reasonable one, the price needs to get nice and stretched for a couple of years before the next huge FOMO ensues. However fundamentals are king and things like Bakkt are new services in which institutions can potentially have $billionaire demand, contracts which must be settled with the underlying asset, in other words they must buy the bitcoins. These things did not exist in the primitive status of Bitcoin during the previous halvings.

[jossiel]

That chart and analysis looks realistic, I'm expecting thay we will get a bump by this Q1 of 2019 and afterwards, people will profit from that bump which will lead to continue the bear we are experiencing for almost a year now.

But I'll let things happen and wont depend to anyone's analysis anymore since most of them failed. 2019 can be the extension of this bear and 2020 shall put that bear to hibernate, I'm prepared with any of it anyway and Im very optimistic with the fundamentals and possible adoptions coming.

[Lucius]

Bakkt is looking good so far in the initial stages, this could put fuel on the rocket and acceleration may happen before we expect in graphs like the one you posted, which btw is a pretty reasonable one, the price needs to get nice and stretched for a couple of years before the next huge FOMO ensues. However fundamentals are king and things like Bakkt are new services in which institutions can potentially have $billionaire demand, contracts which must be settled with the underlying asset, in other words they must buy the bitcoins. These things did not exist in the primitive status of Bitcoin during the previous halvings.

I agree that Bakkt is only public thing we know for now (if we exempt last dead line for VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust ETF), which can bring a positive change to the market. I see they completed first funding round and get over 180$ million, and only problem is launching date which can not be precisely defined, but it is expected to be in the first half of this year.

I personally think this year will be marked by a slow recovery and halving expectations in next year, but I am open for all the possibilities. Since I am with BTC for several years and looking at this project in the long term I certainly agree with the chart. It say 160k $ by 2023, Tim Draper predict 250k $ by 2022 - I would be happy with 100k $ or even lower price.

[Kemarit]

Welp. another 2 years stuck between 3000 and 4000. I don't believe that bitcoin can be stuck in that price range for so long (now that it is fairly well positioned in the public spotlight) only to then go on another big bull run like before. If we're going to see new heights it's going to need to start sometime in the next year.

You just to remember that everything works on cycle and because the market is still fairly young and we only have a small sample data, it makes sense to look at it and predict that we might see the price moving sideways this year. That's what the last cycle tells us if you look at the chart, it might give us a different pattern in 2019-2020, but lets look at it in the bright side. If the patterns holds true then at least we can prepare ourselves as early as this time so that we won't get disappointed.

On thing though about the last bitcoin block halving is that it took months (as far as I can remember) though before we finally see some reversal and the eventual all-time-high in 2017.

[reactorjuno]

That chart and analysis looks realistic, I'm expecting thay we will get a bump by this Q1 of 2019 and afterwards, people will profit from that bump which will lead to continue the bear we are experiencing for almost a year now.

But I'll let things happen and wont depend to anyone's analysis anymore since most of them failed. 2019 can be the extension of this bear and 2020 shall put that bear to hibernate, I'm prepared with any of it anyway and Im very optimistic with the fundamentals and possible adoptions coming.

What makes you think this chart looks realistic?
I posted to ask your opinion, this is a really question here
I am asking because I was not there during the last halving. I am curious to hear some constructive opinions. Near $100,000 seems like absolutely crazy in such a short period of time.

[el kaka22]

That doesn't show 2019 as "mediocre" it shows 2019 as horrible, it has already gone down so much that at one point bitcoin goes back to 3000 dollars and even maybe less before it starts to go up. However, these things always forget one thing, the outside affects made by the whales. Yes, by the charts it looks like this is definitely probable and possible however we were all thinking bitcoin could go up at 6500 but it went down to as much as $3200 at one point because of one big bear run by the whales.

Charts miss those things and maybe who knows tomorrow someone with 30 thousand bitcoins will sell all of it and we will be screwed or a huge bank will invest couple billion dollars in one sitting and the price will increase, we never know about those things and charts can't predict those things.

Also, according to the chart bitcoin will not be going up in the next 2 years, 2020 ends with 3500 which is less than current price, I see NO possible way bitcoin doesn't go up at all in the next 2 years, that is impossible.

[1Referee]

Bakkt is looking good so far in the initial stages, this could put fuel on the rocket and acceleration may happen before we expect in graphs like the one you posted, which btw is a pretty reasonable one, the price needs to get nice and stretched for a couple of years before the next huge FOMO ensues. However fundamentals are king and things like Bakkt are new services in which institutions can potentially have $billionaire demand, contracts which must be settled with the underlying asset, in other words they must buy the bitcoins. These things did not exist in the primitive status of Bitcoin during the previous halvings.

I see way more value in a streamlined growth process in terms of having Bitcoin's fundamentals improve, because speculative demand relies on cycles, while the use aspect has a continuous level of demand to it that should keep people's interest in Bitcoin high enough. Bakkt looks good on paper, the $180 million funding round looks good too, but the only thing they need is regulatory approval to go live, and they don't have that yet.

Regulators aren't fools. They know the importance of these events, especially when it comes to the potential effect on the market of the underlying asset, which will make them think twice before letting them go through. Bakkt has mass appeal, which can't be underestimated, and regulators don't.

[WinslowIII]

That chart and analysis looks realistic, I'm expecting thay we will get a bump by this Q1 of 2019 and afterwards, people will profit from that bump which will lead to continue the bear we are experiencing for almost a year now.

But I'll let things happen and wont depend to anyone's analysis anymore since most of them failed. 2019 can be the extension of this bear and 2020 shall put that bear to hibernate, I'm prepared with any of it anyway and Im very optimistic with the fundamentals and possible adoptions coming.

What makes you think this chart looks realistic?
I posted to ask your opinion, this is a really question here
I am asking because I was not there during the last halving. I am curious to hear some constructive opinions. Near $100,000 seems like absolutely crazy in such a short period of time.

Bitcoin went from steady $400s to peak of $20k in less than 2 years, and this is the same jump from $2ks 2019 (presuming it goes that low) to $100k in late 2021. I don't see anything crazy about it if this happens, because it happened before.
The 2017 halving pump peaked at 20x price of the previous halving pump in late 2013. If the next halving pump peaks at less than 5x the previous halving pump I'd be surprised, and 5x is $100k.

[budiarmed]

I think that in 2019 it is still not able to restore market conditions such as 2017, in 2019 it will be a recovery process and the jump will likely be seen in 2020.

[talks_cheep]

Don't forget the halfing event sometime in 2020. If I remember correctly, about 6 months before the halfing, btc price will be locked in for the event, which means it will get interesting in Nov/Dec 2019.

[WinslowIII]

Don't forget the halfing event sometime in 2020. If I remember correctly, about 6 months before the halfing, btc price will be locked in for the event, which means it will get interesting in Nov/Dec 2019.

I don't buy what you are saying for a second. I think it takes several months after the actual halving for the reduced new supply of coins to be felt so 2021 we will see the real effect of the halving. This has been the way it's gone for all previous halvings.

[tdrinker]

Welp. another 2 years stuck between 3000 and 4000. I don't believe that bitcoin can be stuck in that price range for so long (now that it is fairly well positioned in the public spotlight) only to then go on another big bull run like before. If we're going to see new heights it's going to need to start sometime in the next year.

You just to remember that everything works on cycle and because the market is still fairly young and we only have a small sample data, it makes sense to look at it and predict that we might see the price moving sideways this year. That's what the last cycle tells us if you look at the chart, it might give us a different pattern in 2019-2020, but lets look at it in the bright side. If the patterns holds true then at least we can prepare ourselves as early as this time so that we won't get disappointed.

On thing though about the last bitcoin block halving is that it took months (as far as I can remember) though before we finally see some reversal and the eventual all-time-high in 2017.

I can see that history suggests will have a long stagnant period but I'm not sure that history can keep repeating itself. Like bitcoin cannot keep going through 100x bubbles and 80%+ crashes it also probably cannot survive for multiple years of stagnancy now that so many people keep an eye on it.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Also, according to the chart bitcoin will not be going up in the next 2 years, 2020 ends with 3500 which is less than current price, I see NO possible way bitcoin doesn't go up at all in the next 2 years, that is impossible.

I don't see anything crazy about it if this happens, because it happened before.

Past performance does not predict future results. It is entirely possible, as you say, that the price doesn't dip any more and climbs up to $100k in the next 2 years. It is also entirely possible we fall back to $3k or lower and stay there for 2-3 years. The problems with charts like this, which try to retrospectively fit patterns to the data, is that they are only right until they aren't, and you have no way of predicting when they will stop being right. I could go and find 100 charts from this time last year which nicely drawn lines on them showing how the bull run is going to continue until $50k, which obviously didn't happen.

I'm obviously bullish long term, otherwise I wouldn't be here, but just be wary of pinning all your hopes on a guaranteed price rise within a set time frame, or reaching a target value by a target data. Prolonged bear markets have happened before, and they will happen again.

[dandannn]

Longterm bullish but the trend for a bull market is still in and isnt showing any signs of ending in the near future.

All i cant take from the graph is we will be dancing around $3k - $4k most of 2019 and can expect a bull run from sometime 2020 onwards.