Bitcoin, 2019 and next halving

[Crypdon]

The halving effect will start from May 2019 when people start to accumulate. The price starts to rise and miners will also return increasing the difficulty as a result. Dec 2019 will certainly be a good time for bitcoin hodlers (better than it was in 2018)

[Febo]

So it says 2019 will be very mediocre, following the current trend and that 2020 could be very exciting.

This chart actually state that 2019 will be very mediocre and 2020 very boring year. But I believe the chart is wrong and in reality 2019 will be very boring year and 2020 exciting.

[Wind_FURY]

So it says 2019 will be very mediocre, following the current trend and that 2020 could be very exciting.

This chart actually state that 2019 will be very mediocre and 2020 very boring year. But I believe the chart is wrong and in reality 2019 will be very boring year and 2020 exciting.

Then that should give everyone more than enough time to buy as much "cheap" coins as they can in preparation for the next rally.

This chart might be the one closer to what you are saying.



Sorry nocoiners, no excuses, and we did not get lucky.

[sunanbonang]

that means the lowest point will occur at the end of this year? and the peak of the bull will occur at the end of 2023? oh this is too long, the bull happens every two years.

[figmentofmyass]

I saved this picture and put it on my desktop. I keep it to see how accurate it could prove to be, or not.

So it says 2019 will be very mediocre, following the current trend and that 2020 could be very exciting.

I am starting this thread to ask for opinions, of course this chart looks too simplistic and extremely bullish in the long term, but any constructive opinion is more than welcome. Cheers.

the logarithmic growth theory is one school of thought about bitcoin price cycles. i think there's some validity to it but like you, i think it's a tad simplistic---those curves will definitely be adjusted to fit future price data.

one reason i lend the log trend idea some credence is that it explains why the cycles take longer and longer as time goes on.

[Wind_FURY]

I saved this picture and put it on my desktop. I keep it to see how accurate it could prove to be, or not.

So it says 2019 will be very mediocre, following the current trend and that 2020 could be very exciting.

I am starting this thread to ask for opinions, of course this chart looks too simplistic and extremely bullish in the long term, but any constructive opinion is more than welcome. Cheers.

the logarithmic growth theory is one school of thought about bitcoin price cycles. i think there's some validity to it but like you, i think it's a tad simplistic---those curves will definitely be adjusted to fit future price data.

one reason i lend the log trend idea some credence is that it explains why the cycles take longer and longer as time goes on.

Simplistic? But you can't deny how really simple those long term patterns are.

From a newbie's perspective. If the next curve up, more or less, follows where the price in the chart is going, would only be then that they accept it as, more or less, accurate? I believe it would be riskier not to take their opportunity to buy now.

[haroldtee]

The halving effect will start from May 2019 when people start to accumulate. The price starts to rise and miners will also return increasing the difficulty as a result. Dec 2019 will certainly be a good time for bitcoin hodlers (better than it was in 2018)

Maybe, maybe not, but certainly it looks like 3000 seems to be a great psychological support a lot has been waiting for and it falls on the long term support anyway. However, it is a market, and we cannot guarantee anything yet although, knowing what the pre and post-halving usually tend to bring, I guess there is still great hope long term. Looking at the situation of things, this year would really be a very boring one, but at least, not a bad time to be accumulating for those who are smart.

[ethereumhunter]

The halving effect will start from May 2019 when people start to accumulate. The price starts to rise and miners will also return increasing the difficulty as a result. Dec 2019 will certainly be a good time for bitcoin hodlers (better than it was in 2018)

Maybe, maybe not, but certainly it looks like 3000 seems to be a great psychological support a lot has been waiting for and it falls on the long term support anyway. However, it is a market, and we cannot guarantee anything yet although, knowing what the pre and post-halving usually tend to bring, I guess there is still great hope long term. Looking at the situation of things, this year would really be a very boring one, but at least, not a bad time to be accumulating for those who are smart.

So if $3000 is the support, we cannot do anything while we could only following the price. I think no matter how much the price will be, as long as we can keep making a profit, it doesn't matter for us and even I am sure that it will be a good time for the altcoin to rise back again. I see that if bitcoin is on the one point level, the altcoin can increase so high and there will be a jump of the altcoin price to break the next wall. The market will have many movements and the altcoin will alive again

[Febo]

that means the lowest point will occur at the end of this year? and the peak of the bull will occur at the end of 2023? oh this is too long, the bull happens every two years.

It is 4 years and not 2. And this time should happen earlier then in 4 because everyone expect it and they will want to be ahead of others.

[WinslowIII]

The halving effect will start from May 2019 when people start to accumulate. The price starts to rise and miners will also return increasing the difficulty as a result. Dec 2019 will certainly be a good time for bitcoin hodlers (better than it was in 2018)

No. First off, halving effects don't happen before the actual halving, they happen afterwards as the market adjusts to the new lesser amount of newly mined coins being offered on exchanges. Secondly, accumulation periods are not marked by increased prices, they are marked by sideways prices after a true bottom is reached. I doubt very seriously if the true bottom of this bear market has been reached.

[WinslowIII]

that means the lowest point will occur at the end of this year? and the peak of the bull will occur at the end of 2023? oh this is too long, the bull happens every two years.

It is 4 years and not 2. And this time should happen earlier then in 4 because everyone expect it and they will want to be ahead of others.

You may be right, but there is always the unkown factor of whether bitcoin will pump again. Nobody knows for sure, and this fear of the unknown keeps people in the same mindset and keeps them from jumping the gun, or accumulating no matter the price.

[pabpete]

that means the lowest point will occur at the end of this year? and the peak of the bull will occur at the end of 2023? oh this is too long, the bull happens every two years.

It is 4 years and not 2. And this time should happen earlier then in 4 because everyone expect it and they will want to be ahead of others.

You may be right, but there is always the unkown factor of whether bitcoin will pump again. Nobody knows for sure, and this fear of the unknown keeps people in the same mindset and keeps them from jumping the gun, or accumulating no matter the price.

Something unexpected may happen in any moment and such charts will have to be corrected very quickly. It's enough for Bitcoin to become the official currency of a medium-sized country, or Google and McDonalds will accept it, to completely change this lines. We have to remember, that this is just speculation.

[WinslowIII]

that means the lowest point will occur at the end of this year? and the peak of the bull will occur at the end of 2023? oh this is too long, the bull happens every two years.

It is 4 years and not 2. And this time should happen earlier then in 4 because everyone expect it and they will want to be ahead of others.

You may be right, but there is always the unkown factor of whether bitcoin will pump again. Nobody knows for sure, and this fear of the unknown keeps people in the same mindset and keeps them from jumping the gun, or accumulating no matter the price.

Something unexpected may happen in any moment and such charts will have to be corrected very quickly. It's enough for Bitcoin to become the official currency of a medium-sized country, or Google and McDonalds will accept it, to completely change this lines. We have to remember, that this is just speculation.

I don't see how any of those things are possible with the current inability to scale.

[yesyes18]

lol...I can just imagine what 2020 is going to be. The wait for it is really spiking up and people are anticipating for a price we have never seen before. Anyways, if indeed that's gonna be the case then I think we are gonna have a little rough year this year. In all these, one thing that I wish for most is that crypto stays for that long and I believe we can. I think now we've already gotten over the argument crypto is gonna die. We're here to stay.

[hatshepsut93]

Pretty much everyone expects some sort of price growth around the next halving, and also most people have noted the cyclicity of Bitcoin's price. This might even turn into some sort of self-fulfilling prophesy when those patterns will hold true because most people will believe that they will hold true, and will act accordingly, thus fulfilling them.

However, I have some doubts that we'll have such a big magnitude (6 figures) in the next cycle. The more mature the market is, the less volatility there will be.

[greeklogos]

The graphic looks logical to all bitcoin believers. I think each of us who passed the previous halving put a lot expectations on the next one.

[Wind_FURY]

Pretty much everyone expects some sort of price growth around the next halving, and also most people have noted the cyclicity of Bitcoin's price. This might even turn into some sort of self-fulfilling prophesy when those patterns will hold true because most people will believe that they will hold true, and will act accordingly, thus fulfilling them.

Or it might be simple Bitcoin economics working in practice. There is more behind the value of Bitcoin than markets, and trading in my opinion.

However, I have some doubts that we'll have such a big magnitude (6 figures) in the next cycle. The more mature the market is, the less volatility there will be.
 

The same might have been said of "$20,000 on 2017" when Bitcoin was trading on $200 on 2014.

[auliasilvana]

Graphs that look real and analysis that adjust to history, we will learn this will still have the patience to find improvements in the next few months. It will be a valuable lesson by taking into account all the market movements that occur, high volumes will follow.

[Slow death]

but any constructive opinion is more than welcome. Cheers.

" This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. "

 

before January 2018 we had a market that did not suffer much from the pressure of governments and banks .... people from many countries had very easy to buy bitcoin and they were easy to invest in ICOs. Banks and governments have seen bitcoin rise from $ 1000 to $ 20,000 in a year and this has piqued their attention and started to witch hunt. just look at India's case and then with the $ 20,000 drop to $ 4000, many people must have given up bitcoin. By this I mean that the next halving may cause the price to increase, but I doubt we will see large increases in price. Unless this market is legalized by many countries and many people have facilities to buy and sell bitcoin without having problems with governments and banks

[Stedsm]

All I'm currently seeing is BTC forming a bull flag on 1D charts and that inverse head and shoulders is indicating that there might be a bull run hidden in the near future, be it through the Bakkt hype or the accumulation may become the reason for them to give it a shot once again upside before taking it down back for them to be able to make more and more BTC through shorting. It's good to see that 2020 will probably be the year Satoshi and we all have been waiting for, but I think that organic growth is much better than a straight pump.