Bitcoin Forum

  I have been comparing charts from 2014-2015 to 2018-2019 and i can't think of any more similar market behavior, and based on that , to me ,we still have a long way to go before seeing any considerable gains.

the history view , plus adding to it the concept of the golden cross which is always the best and strongest sign of any market reversal.
 
Without any further ado let's jump right into the weekly BLX chart.


https://i.imgur.com/vfvWWO4.png



looking at how price reacted to the 20 and 50 simple moving averages back in 2014-2015 , it's pretty similar to how it reacted to it in 2018 , and the similarity is still showing on the chart, it's like history all over again, and based on that, we still have a long way to go for bull market, I never look at exact periods and prices but if timing is to be the same , then here are the numbers ;

it took 440 days from the dead cross to the mark the golden cross, this puts us somewhere around September 10th 2019.


from a pure technical  point of view , it's almost always impossible to make a golden across (shift in market direction) without a quite a good period of long sideways market where price does not move much.

in 2015 it took almost 300 days from the bottom candle to the golden cross, and it only makes sense that the same thing has to happen this year, and even 20 years from now, it's basic , it's simple , it MUST always happen.

therefore based on that, it does not really make sense to buy bitcoin now for long term investment ( for day traders is a different story as sideways market can do up to 100% in btc with no problem).

also the fact that we are not certain whether we have bottomed or not adds more reasons for why do i think it's still too early to buy.

one could argue that the golden cross will happen when price has already increased from bottom, and therefore it's better to buy at the bottom, well this makes a perfect sense in a perfect world, but since we can't know where is the exact bottom, the probability of success is definitely on the golden cross side.

also based on the way these SMA look, it's pretty clear the distance from bottom to golden cross won't be much, as the 20 SMA will have start leveling off , therefore i don't think that anything above 50% increase in price from bottom to golden cross will be possible.

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TL;DR , when is should i buy? how do i know golden cross is coming,? how do i know bottom is there or almost there?

1- wait for the 20 SMA on the weekly chart to start looking level/flat ( refer to the period before the 2015 golden cross)
2- wait for the 20 SMA to cross the 50 SMA go balls deep with SL right under the 50 SMA

This is probably the safest trade one can ever make.


i would love to hear what you guys think is the best chance on charts for your long term entry?


* this is not a fiinancal advice, trading BTC is FUN risky.

Don't you think there is a lot of similarity in June/July 2016 action and in current action? It seems a lot similar, and June/July of 2016 was the key reversal point. I'm not very aware of the typical charting terms you used, but the current situation looks pretty similar to me if compared with June/July of 2016.

 I honestly do not see any similarity to June / July of 2016, those were like a small pull-back/correction of the start of the bull run, and a re-test of the prior major support.

if that is to be applied to this year,  price has to break 6k test 7-8k , bounce back to 6k ( as per june/july 2016)  

i am almost sure we are way to far from the phase, i think that is more likely to happen in Q1- 2020 at least based on the chart.

as for 2019, the most likely highest price i will be 4k to 5k, very unlikely we are going to see anything above that.

in June/July 2016 , Golden cross has already happened, price was sitting nicely above the 50 and 20 ma ,every thing was screaming bullish, now everything is shouting sideways to bear market.

I am almost certain at least Q1,Q2 and Q3 will be the most boring for years to come, most people will give up on bitcoin by then,only then the rally will start to kick in.

though nothing is 100%, but from a TA point of view ,it suggests whatever i just mentioned.

The worst possible thing to hear this year... 💔

BTW, I think that you should post your analysis in Wall Observer BTC/USD thread.

well when you are prepared for it, it won't be that bad.

It is truth.  How can someone make this type of predictions and think it would came to pass.  Bitcoin has been underperforming but that did mean if it want to recover it is not going to recover fast.  Many people believe that bitcoin is not going to have strong bull run this year but it is going to be in sideway trend but I disagree with those analysis,  bitcoin is not going to get the high price of $5000 but it is going above that and give another surprise bullish movements this year 2019.

looking at your chart solidifies my feeling that we're in a mid term bounce like october 2014. just look at the proportions---the crash from $6k is way too short (time wise) to expect the bottom to be in. we're missing one of two legs down.

as i've said elsewhere, i need to see higher highs and upside range expansion like october 2015 before turning bullish on the market again. that type of action should coincide with a long term golden cross.

the best time to be able to buy bitcoin is now because the current price is very cheap and it is still very safe to be able to buy as much bitcoin as you can, so you should be able to take advantage of the moment to buy bitcoin, before you are late to buy.

the real question is whether you want to take that risk of waiting for a lower price that may not happen or even if it happens you may not be able to catch it.
we all know these types of final sharp drops never last long and unless you take the huge risk of leaving your money on exchanges that can scam you, you won't be able to catch it and that is only if you place the order at the perfect price level days before it happens!

Oh love this. Been months since I saw any speak of golden crosses. Wondering when the quadruple bottom TAs will come.

Best time to buy Bitcoin not here yet, maybe if we believe a fresh low or a series of fresh lows are coming (I believe that). But really, even if BTC becomes $1k, it's a difference of $2.3k.

When Bitcoin hits $5k, 10k and beyond... what's that 2.3k difference going to look like? Especially if it never came and you held out on buying now?

Just always buy dip but now do not invest all your money into bitcoin because there still a tendency that the price will go down. I usually buy dip and then I will hold it. Anytime you can buy bitcoin and you will never late in buying bitcoin.

Why ? Whhhyy would it make the same thing again? What makes it sooo sure that it will happen again. I can't really believe people who keep on thinking bitcoin did something once and it will do it again, why don't you guys understand just because something happened once it will happen again.

Why would it pass that golden cross again, maybe it wont ? I mean I understand its bitcoin and price will probably go up one day or another and even if it takes 20 years bitcoin will go up again but why does it have to be according to the chart ? Have you ever looked at all the charts that were shared here all this time  ?

Almost ALL of them were wrong and none of them found the perfect time to get into bitcoin, there has been a lot of charts that said THIS is the time to join and all failed. I don't doubt bitcoin will increase once again but it has nothing to do with 2014-2015 and it has nothing to do with charts as well.

I already convert my savings into bitcoin even it is too risky. I already take the advantages in buying bitcoin which the price is very cheap and I just store it in my wallet which is a kind of hardware wallet. The savings that I use to buy bitcoin is my profit way back 2017.

this is the only missing part of the puzzle now, percentage wise we have dropped almost exactly as we did in 2014, time wise of first bottom candle is also almost identical from death cross , the only thing missing now is that last leg ( which is not a must anyway, but still !).

this is why i am not going balls deep in bitcoin yet, because if the market decide another leg, that leg is going to be a large one, anywhere from 1000$ to 1800$ as i don't see any major support above that.pretty soon

having said that, i am almost very confident that we will have to level off pretty son and i tend to think based on charts that we have already bottomed, but i still want to see more signs before jumping in, and the golden cross will be my all-in signal.


you make a lot of sense, but you know that if we drop to 1k then you buy about 3 btc for each btc you can buy now, but that's not a big deal to some people, however this is not my major concern, it's the "how long" that gets me, i am not the best hodler minded out there, i don't like to keep my fortune stuck for a long time doing nothing, i am pretty sure nothing bullish is going to happen before at least Q4 of this year, i wouldn't want to put my money in bitcoin now and watch it do nothing , some people might be okay with that tho.


then wtf are you doing in price speculation? it's either technical or fundamental based topics, unless you have a magic that tells you something we all don't know. if you don't like what you see, move on, visit the off-topic and talk about flat earth. ;D



you are taking the risk if you now too, the risk is always there, there is nothing that guarantees bitcoin not going to 100$ or 50$, i simply don't make my decision on how much bitcoin is worth, price alone does not mean shit, it was cheap at  6k wasn't it ? it was cheap at 10k too, anything below ATH was cheap, people bought in and now they have either lost their money or minds, just because price is very low from ATH it doesn't mean it's time to buy it, i rather wait for clear signals even if i had to buy bitcoin for more than current price, taking less risk in itself is profit. also should the price fall to say 1k, you would be missing out on a great discount.

don't get me wrong tho, if you don't know how to read charts or you just don't care about time, it's still a very good chance to buy.

How doesn't it make sense for long term investors to buy at current levels?

You point out that it's not certain whether we have already bottomed or not. I think what you are referring to are more short term (buy low sell high) investors. In this case there are two options. 1) you wait and risk missing a great buying opportunity. 2) you buy in right now and take the risk of seeing lower lows, but have additional funds aside to buy more on the way down.

This market rhymes, that's undoubtedly true, but it's not something I would want to wait for as being an actual long term investor/believer of the tech. Whether you buy at $3000 or $2000, in the long run it doesn't make much of a difference with how the next bull wave will catapult the price to $100,000 with enough momentum behind it. Heck, even $50,000 isn't all that bad, and the difference between buying at $3000 or $2000 is still negligible.

I touched on why i wouldn't personally buy now, this of course is different and very personal option that differs from one person to another, just because you are a long-term investor it does not make sense to keep your funds in an asset that might not move for nearly a year from now,not only that, you would also risk not being able to buy it for cheaper should it go lower, i think most of you skipped this part that i clearly stated in the OP.


maybe i miss explained it, but here is another explanation.

first let's agree on certain TA facts.

1- the SMA always levels-off before a golden cross.
2- the bull run does not happen over-night.

if we both could agree to these 2 points and here are more facts that develop based on the above points ;

-For the bull run to start, the 20 SMA MUST cross the 50 SMA , there is no argument about this TA wise.
-when that happens, price will be sitting on top of those moving averages.

having said that,the only way for the 20 MA to push though the 50 MA is by leveling-off , this will allow the 20 SMA to remain flat , while the 50 will keep dropping, therefore, reducing the gap between the two and making a cross possible.

https://i.imgur.com/xCk3Uzj.png


 i drew the potential shape of SMAs , they are difficulty not even accurate , just use them to imagine how does the chart have to look like before a bull market begins.

the current reading on the 50 SMA is 6600$ simply because it contains some prices from 11k
the current reading on the 20 SMA is 4600$ they are off by about 30% , and on the weekly chart , this simply means that it's not possible for the bull market to kick in any time soon.

so here is the likely scenario, price will range for not less than 30 to 40 weeks from the alleged bottom candle - between 3000$ - 5000$

this will keep the 20 SMA at about 4000$ for a few months, while 50 SMA will continue to go down to the 4k zone, only then a cross will be possible and the bull market will kick.

i have not done exact calculations because it doesn't really matter, but based on these rough calculations and from comparing the the 2014-2015 chart i am almost certain that the cross will have to happen around 4k.

i don't know about you, but i rather buy at 4k in say Q4 2019 or Q1 2020 than buying at 3.5k now , i would use the cash for something else. also don't forget that we still have for face the possibility of price making another low.

there is nothing certain about bottom, it's nearly impossible to catch it, but there are many certain sings about a bull run kicking in. i rather enter a bit late and too early.

there is indeed no guarantee any of this will have to happen, price could spike up over night and that 20S MA will cross the 50 SMA in 2-3 weeks, but it's not feasible at all.

having said that, if you really don't care don't about your money sitting there doing nothing, it makes all sense to buy now, keep some if the price drops.

It's called hindsight analysis. If things were so obvious, why didn't any of these so called TA cowboys pointed out the importance of the corrective cross? They probably didn't because they might have thought it would pump....

The thing with traders is that you cant blame them even if they guess wrong, because it's a probability based trade that they either win or lose, and that's always what they point to when they guess wrong.

People have been quite bearish already, so they expect lower prices even without an indication or understanding of TA. If we do head lower, TA cowboys and those blindly guessing that the price will go down are right. We'll see.

I think you're misreading him. More than anything else, the OP is just stating what to look for when the market is transitioning to bullish. He's not saying what needs to happen or when. He's just stressing patience and then suggesting how you can react to changing market conditions by using MA crosses.


The chart will tell us when the golden cross occurs. Then we can react.

I agree with him. People averaging down into this market and letting their losses run obviously have money to burn. If you're concerned with preserving your capital, buying at $4K+ off a golden cross 9 months from now is infinitely smarter than buying now.

Exactly. Waiting and hoping for some specific low price could either end up great or make someone totally miss the bottom when it never comes. That strategy involves hoping to get lucky which is never a good strategy.

The other strategy is waiting for a clear sign that the market is moving up for good, by which time you'll have missed the bottom as well.

The best/safest strategy is to accumulate over the course of this entire bottoming out process. So you can have started accumulating since November or start now for anyone who hasn't already started accumulating. Keep buying regularly throughout the coming months until the price starts moving upwards which will probably be sometime the second half of this year - so plenty of time to accumulate! And of course one could keep accumulating as the next bull market begins, or could just sit back and watch the bottom Bitcoin you bought grow exponentially.

Getting a worse price later on is infinitely better than getting a better price now? Interesting investing strategy. though the math on that doesn't really pan out ;p

The only reason I would see for that is if you don't believe in Bitcoin and aren't sure it is going to go back up so you'd rather wait for signs that it is for sure going to go up and get less buying power than get a better deal earlier when you are scared Bitcoin might disappear.

Tell that to the bulls buying dips all the way down through 2018, thinking it was the bottom every time.

You thought $6K was bottom, right? Your investment would be down 40-50% right now, and that's assuming you managed to buy at $6K. In general, people buying based on that bottom obviously would have bought even higher.

This is still officially a downtrend. Nothing but lower highs and lower lows. The long term MAs continue pressuring price down. With that in mind, you should assume price may crash again. At $1,500 your investments from $6K+ are starting to look unbelievably shitty, aren't they?

If you do the math and account for the risk, then waiting for signs of an actual reversal is much smarter. I appreciate you knife catching bulls but I also think you guys are sort of crazy.

i think bitcoin can pump from these price to 4600 (25) in 24 hour  :o. russia will invest in bitcoin  :o and the whale can buy large some of bitcoin ;D . do not forget
bitcoin
1 btc .... 3400 usd cheap cheap
bitcoin can pump hard at any moment .

ever wondered why people pay more interest rate for longer period loans? there is a time factor that you seem to be missing out, buying time is more precious than you think.

i am not satoshi, i honestly don't put much hope in bitcoin, i as an investor, i like to invest my money where it grows, by keeping it there for a say year not making me any profit is something i call "Stupid".

but if you, or anybody else for that matter, have nothing else to do with that money for a whole year and BTC is all you know  - by all means you this strategy shouldn't be of any sense to you, just buy in right away.

I'm that type of hodler yeah. I gladly buy the market down without being bothered by the overall $$ value of my holdings going down in the short term. I know that it will pay off in the long run, and that's what I focus on here. I know that it may sound cringe worthy considering how many short term traders there are here, but it paid off for me back in 2015/2016 and I'll happily do it again.

From a trader's to mid term investor's perspective everything you said definitely makes sense. Thanks for the time you put into your counter reply.

Oh for sure, I do get that logic, but I still feel it's a risk too big to take to wait for the opportune moment, when the long-term view is of a certain time and amount, which more or less makes the difference between 1k and 3k negligible. Besides, most of us at most could only entertain fractions of BTC, (unless I underestimate how many of us could be whales!)... so even for me at most I'm talking about the difference between owning 1 BTC now and 3 BTC, over the period of several months.

Anyway, you should hold to where you're comfortable. This may be a game to some, but most of us have real lives and real expenses. Good luck to you!

It is very hard for one to actually know the best time to buy bitcoin and I think every time is good for buying bitcoin it mostly depends on the type of trader you are.  Bitcoin may recover from the current price and it might go down a little and we are limited on how it should be.

The problem I see about using the golden cross is you already missed the right opportunity before the cross even happens, so using the golden cross alone won't detect any kind of reversal in the charts. If you want to be more accurate you must also use RSIs, MACDs, as well as its volume in order to support those moving averages. Also the hardest thing is keeping track on their latest candles which is crucial on detecting any kind of bullishness in the chart. The golden cross is like a monitor in which it would only say "Yes we are now in an up trend".

if you see price movements on existing charts, it is indeed very difficult to be able to determine the right position to buy coins because all of those possibilities can happen up and down the price of bitcoin no one will know, when you want to buy you only need to be brave to take risks.

I was replying to a post you made in which you specifically said you'd rather buy higher later on than buy lower now. You said you'd rather get a worse price. You said $4k+ later on is better than $3000s now. That makes no sense. You didn't address that at all in this reply.

Anyway, I ain't catching no knife, I'm buying up the bottom and have been ever since it went under $4000. If it happens to drop even lower I'll be buying it up at that price too. Whatever the bottom is I'm buying it because I'm buying the whole thing, cost averaging it out. If $3100 in December was the bottom, great, I already bought in the $3100s, and the $3200s, and $3300s and $3400s, and so on for months. If it drops to $2000s great I'll be buying there too.

Whereas you are guaranteed to miss the bottom, and there is no way to know if a price rise is the beginning of the bull market or not, so you'll have to wait a while after the price starts going up, so likely you'll be buying way off the bottom, meanwhile I'll have spent many months buying up the whole bottom range! I like my strategy infinitely better than yours!

I said I'd rather buy higher at the beginning of a confirmed bull market then buy now in the middle of a bear market. At the beginning of a bull market, price will continue rising. 2 months off a brutal crash in the middle of a bear market? Price will probably continue falling.

That's what I was addressing with the above post. You have no idea if the bottom would be $6K or $3K or $1K. I'm trying to conserve capital and make profits, not bleed away capital and wait years for recovery. Buying into a bull market is a much more reliable way to do that.

For clarity, this was the original post:



You called $6K the bottom range too. Since we crashed to $3K, your average "bottom range" price is now no better than waiting for a theoretical golden cross at $4-5K. And if we fall to $1K, you will be in a much worse position.

Catching the bottom really shouldn't be the goal, and averaging down means you called the bottom too early anyway.

Every time is a best time to buy bitcoin so we can't miss anything but of course not all are afford it so they do some strategy so they can buy bitcoin. I know the best ti.e of bitcoin will come soonest just be patience and hodl.

Why? it's the halving, dummy.

you are correct mate but unfortunately bitcoin still making a small dump which is another opportunity for us to get discount . So much better to wait for more results in fact market still not fine nowadays.  So lets keep monitoring the prices to get the most cheaper price.

You can't expect to be able to buy at exactly the bottom dude. No one knows if the price will still drop hard or if it will start to move up. For me, an entry close to the 3k level is already a decent buy. Even if it goes down more, 3k will easily be broken when btc starts to recover.

Of course, it's very possible that Bitcoin price can fall lower but you can't count on that and take it for sure. If you want to invest in Bitcoin you have to take certain risks and make decisions. Current price is prety decent and in some period of time the price will rise so you can count on profit. But like I said you have to also accept the risk of losing and have the stategy to recover.

Hey if you keep searching answers of futures in the past you’ll never be able to see the opportunities that are there in present times, what if the op conclusion is wrong and bitcoins prices never go down? I feel we should not look at old charts as bitcoin is a volatile currency, and back then circumstances were different than they’re now. As we’re discussing here bitcoins has already gained up to 300$, which shows there is an upwards trend and I feel one should buy it now or regret missing out later.

I agree. let's look at this week as an example: at the beginning of the week the price was $ 3400, after a few days the price dropped to $ 3350 and today the price reached more than $ 3670. so for those who were doing day trade with more than 1 BTC had a good week of profit


research hard and develop some strategy to make a profit in this market

I have not stated that we are differently going down,the  possibility is there and ignoring it is as stupid as buying bitcoin at 19k.

plus the point of this thread is to show you that there is no bull run coming anything time, assuming the 3k is bottom, then nothing above 5k is going to happen soon.



if you think 300$ is a upward signal that you shouldn't be missing, good luck , you gonna need it.

Considering Bitcoin alone whole this year is good time to buy Bitcoin. Right now or in December.   What bothers me more is what will be the next financial crisis influence on Bitcoin. It will most likely happen at some point in next 3 years. 

That's funny. Bitcoin was stable in $6ks for months, and dumped to $3ks like over-fucking-night. Now bitcoin rose $300 to the mid $3ks you think that's a reason to fomo? gtfo

different strategies demand different approaches. you say sometime about waiting until a bull run starts, that is ok too. but in this strategy the user may not want to invest a large amount in one go. there are a lot of investors who are slowly dumping their fiat and getting bitcoin in return. for example i may not want to buy $10000 worth of bitcoin, i prefer buying 10 times $1000 bitcoin instead (an example).
besides, could you guarantee price is going to fall when it was $6000+? so buying was logical.

i think you misread him. he's definitely not saying to fomo. i'm pretty sure he would agree with you.


only if your biggest concern is losing coins. if your biggest concern is retaining USD value, then it usually makes sense to wait for confirmation of a bull trend first. people who waited on the sidelines instead of buying off $6k benefitted greatly by waiting.

A very nice write-up though we have not started to really understand how this market behave.  It might need to go down a little in other to gather momentum for the next bull run.  It then means some professionals has place order below the current price.

buying at 6k was very logical , worked out through out the year of 2018, however not selling when we broke the support was stupid, sorry for the word but it was clear as day.

i mentioned this here > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.120

and many people were mocking me for saying we are most likely headed to 3000-3100 , by simply using the ABC of charts. we went almost 50% down in price and some lambo boys are still waiting, i am pretty sure everyone who knows the basic of charting sold out by then, the massive drop explains it, the noobs however keep blaming the whales , same thing the noobs doing now, shorting bitcoin just above a major support.

all in all everybody has got his strategy, and my strategy says " don't put your money in an asset that is not going to move anytime soon".

Many people just dont trade. They buy when they need and sell when they dont need anymore. It is simple life and can be very profitable.

but those people are still waiting going by that strategy, and probably won't be buying back in until its at $6k anyway to confirm that its not a bull trap, so no real difference. Though there's a big difference between buying now and buying in higher once bull market has started.

People can have whatever investment strategy they want, but you're guaranteed to get less bitcoin for you money by waiting until the price has been rising for a while to confirm the bull run started that simply by for months along the bottom.

cool. my strategy is get the most bitcoin for my money. don't really care if it takes 6+ months before the price starts moving up again because I know I'm gonna be holding it for probably 3 years until the next boom is in full swing. I'd rather hold bitcoin an extra half year and get more of it, thus getting much more value, then holding it for less time but losing out on 30% - 50% by waiting for the bull run to have already started. I'm got an average buy in of under $3500 right now and I've already picked up probably about 80% of the bitcoin that i will pick up along this bottom. So I'm loving accumulating along the bottom!

i somewhat agree with the bold part because that is very true only for traders but false for everyone else. you see we all know exchanges are not safest places to use no matter where they are that is why many choose to be investors not traders. and they stay away from exchanges as much as they can.
with that said if you are a trader you should have sold before the $6k was broken. instead you should have sold when you saw the FUD start up with BSV fork attack and the whales begin getting ready to dump. when the dump came it was already too late.

additionally i strongly disagree with you suggesting you can predict the bottom by using "charts". it has never worked and it will never work in the future either. because these things can't be seen on the charts.

this all sounds cool assuming we have already bottomed, you see getting in too early can get you more bitcoin than getting in "safe" but it can also screw you over, if you have already spend most of fiat on btc at 3.5k range, what is your plan if the price drops to 1k?

With the long term MAs descending into the low $5,000s and $4,000s, it doesn't look like $6K will be the top of any accumulation range. Chances are, we won't see it for a long time. If you're correct and the bottom is in, maybe towards the end of the year. That leaves ample time to wait for a more bullish price structure.

If $5K is the top of the range (much more likely than $6K), then buying a break and successful retest of that level would be a lower price than buying and holding above $6K last year. More importantly, you're likely to see immediate returns rather than bagholding with a nasty drawdown for more than a year.

And if you're wrong and we end up going to $1,500 from here or something, waiting pays off big time yet again. It's win-win to wait.


That's not true. It all depends where the price rises from. The people who have been calling bottoms all the way down will have much worse average entries than people who still haven't bought.

Different forms of price predictions come forward with different sample numbers or surveys, with that from my view the bull run is yet to start. Same time the market won't be that bearish to buy at a much low bottom. Market has gained good support volume, so it is good to invest than waiting. Probably market will continue with the green trend for a longer time and reach $4000 before the ongoing month end.

The way that markets move is it moves where most of the traders will start liquidating.

I am not saying that a $100 or $200 move will rekt most degen gamblers on Bitmex but I am talking about a $1000-$2000 move.

I was looking at the charts before we hit the bottom at $31xx and prior to that it looked like every dump was getting weaker and weaker because ran out of sellers.

Since there is no sellers left how can there be any money to be made? Basically by going the other direction.

Everybody and their Grandma knew $6000 was important support when it broke people sell stopped at $5800-5500 or so and if they didn't cover yet they are still sitting at a large profit.

The market will come after those traders first and then possibly head back down and get the FOMO longers out as well.

What do you mean ?  I see that the price is now getting stable and increasing a little bit . base on that analysis i think the price wont drop anymore but that does not mean that we should now stop buying a bitcoin .  we must buy now because the longer you wait , the longer the value rises

Yeah, the liquid part is just too heavily one sided for the trader, you can try to make as much money as you can while you are right but that only gets you more hyped about the future, I know they are making a decent return when they are right but even if you make 10%-20% profits there is always that chance of losing ALL the bet. Hence when it goes one way the other way loses and when it goes the other way than others lose.

So there is absolutely no winning in bitmex because no matter what happens side A wins less than side B losses and all the in between is the liquidation for the bitmex who gets their big lion share of it. Bitcoin can always do something unexpected and we are not safe from either being at the helm of a drop at any given time hence people tend to at least bet on going down so if bitcoin goes up at least they win some but if it goes down they are secure with the short future.

and i assume you said the exact same thing when bitcoin price was 6k? no ?

Why do you say it's not time to buy bitcoin yet ? If everyone refuses to buy bitcoin, how do you think the price will go high, I think all time is the right time to buy bitcoin especially now that it is still struggling with the $3850 - $4200 range before it's too late. I can only advise you not to buy now if you are looking for quick profit, but anyone that want to hodl can buy now.

His arguments are that best to by is right before price start grow. OR soon after it start grow.  But reality is that you will do same or most likely better to buy now. Only difference is that for few months you will not be able to use your founds. since they will already be in Bitcoin.  For me I dont see anything else worth to buy anyway so best time to buy bitcoin was yesterday and second best time is now.

well explained Fedo , but allow me to add another point to the argument, which is the fact that we are not certain about the bottom.

while you could be paying a bit more if you wait for the "best" time to buy, you could also miss buy btc at a cheaper price.

so for someone like you who has no use for the cash in hand, it makes sense to buy now, but i wouldn't go all in, i will always keep the possibility of bitcoin making new lows.

after all my analysis or anybody's for that matter are nothing but "probabilities" that could be way too far from accurate at some point.

I think it's true, now is the right time to buy bitcoin. with the price that is still cheap and also safe to buy. even though we all don't know whether this bitcoin price will actually go up or down again. but, at least if it's right to go up, we won't miss the start to make a profit.

update:

https://i.imgur.com/qXes2dD.png


we can see the 20SMA on the weekly is starting to look flat, we are getting closer to a golden cross, but we are still weeks away from a cross and a bull market.

I think we will still consolidate for at least 2 months before any significant move may happen.

the recent spikes were also a part of chart history > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5125728.msg50358025#msg50358025 and nothing out of the ordinary, the only difference this time is that the price is reacting a lot faster.

I think is good for people who bought bitcoin under 4000$ and sell now for 5200$ or maybe they will wait more. Do you think is possible in some weeks bitcoin to reach 8400$ at least?

Going low close to $3200, and now it has recovered nearing to $5300. People who invested by the low could've got back the profit on the investment. People have missed the opportunity and investing by now needs more patience level, because we don't know how long the price will stabilize within the limited price range before bigger growth.

But we’re just in Q2 and already having that more than $5k value,if this will continue then what according to this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5129663.0 will happen and that 7 weeks may surely brings us to that $6k breaking and again may test the $7-8k but ofcourse everything is speculative and no one can really tell what would be the value for tomorrow

nice prediction but your right . all of those are just mere speculations  . there is no solid evidence that they can occur  . price can change or reverse even if you saw that its already mooning  .  best time to buy bitcoin will be dependent on the user if what is his goals  . if he is aiming for long term then buying anytime is the best for him because he wouldnt mind waiting for years or decades just only to earn a profit  . if he a user is a short term investor , buying at highs is a bad idea    .  better if he will wait more  time for the value to decrease a little more   .

I believe that everyone has their own target in this matter. however, the best time to buy bitcoin is hard to know. but, when you need it for something, or because you want to use it, of course every time is the best time. price increases are a bonus for those who hold them back.

Why you are not buying at this moment. In this time price is growing. Day by day price will be rising. So it is the best time for buying. Otherwise, we will miss a big chance.

I prefer to time my buys a bit more precisely. Uptrends often provide lots of opportunities to “buy the dip” which is less risky and more profitable than buying into a sustained rally.

We’re likely to see a correction sooner than later. Now that we’re entering the mid-$5,000s I rather think it’s becoming a good time to sell.

For sure some of the investors miss the opportunity to buy last few months ago. But don't worry it's not too late because it will rise more the value of the bitcoin this week and you have right time to invest so don't miss it just grab it.

It was obvious $3000s was the bottom and that was the bet time to invest. Everyone had 4.5 months to buy bitcoin in the $3000s. Now it is always the best time to invest because we are only 10 days into the bull run, the last one lasted just over two years. At this point just buy as much bitcoin as you can on a regular basis, because it's a good bet bitcoin will for the most part always be higher in a couple months for the next couple of years.

did you read on whats written on the title ? it says buying bitcoin  , but you are talking about selling   . 

@op best time to buy bitcoin is all the time because bitcoin increases the longer the days have passed but at some point the price can experience a decline though that is normal  . the price will recover and start to increase again   .


3k usd ? did you see the price history .  the price from the previous years was lower than 3k usd .  do you believe in the saying history repeat itself ?  but lets not hope that it'll happen   .   i will only love to see the price increase other than decreasing  .

With Bitcoin, the unimaginable can happen, bitcoin continues to follow the pattern it has been following since the 1st of this month, I can say it will be possible in some months’ time, maybe 2 or 3 months, because I am very optimistic` about the price getting to at least $7000 dollars by the end of this month.

Secondly for now, I don’t expect us to have any drop in price again till we gradually get back to its ATH, so I wouldn’t really advise those that even bought at $4000 to sell now, because if they do, they might be completely out of the bitcoin market till further notice, because there are so many investors who are seriously waiting to take advantage of any drop in price and once they see one, they will rush it, making the price shoot far above what you advised such investor to sell.