I touched on why i wouldn't personally buy now, this of course is different and very personal option that differs from one person to another, just because you are a long-term investor it does not make sense to keep your funds in an asset that might not move for nearly a year from now,not only that, you would also risk not being able to buy it for cheaper should it go lower, i think most of you skipped this part that i clearly stated in the OP.
also based on the way these SMA look, it's pretty clear the distance from bottom to golden cross won't be much, as the 20 SMA will have start leveling off , therefore i don't think that anything above 50% increase in price from bottom to golden cross will be possible.
maybe i miss explained it, but here is another explanation.
first let's agree on certain TA facts.
1- the SMA always levels-off before a golden cross.
2- the bull run does not happen over-night.
if we both could agree to these 2 points and here are more facts that develop based on the above points ;
-For the bull run to start, the 20 SMA MUST cross the 50 SMA , there is no argument about this TA wise.
-when that happens, price will be sitting on top of those moving averages.
having said that,the only way for the 20 MA to push though the 50 MA is by leveling-off , this will allow the 20 SMA to remain flat , while the 50 will keep dropping, therefore, reducing the gap between the two and making a cross possible.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FxCk3Uzj.png&t=665&c=KFuRFURjKKUxKg)
i drew the potential shape of SMAs , they are difficulty not even accurate , just use them to imagine how does the chart have to look like before a bull market begins.
the current reading on the 50 SMA is 6600$ simply because it contains some prices from 11k
the current reading on the 20 SMA is 4600$ they are off by about 30% , and on the weekly chart , this simply means that it's not possible for the bull market to kick in any time soon.
so here is the likely scenario, price will range for not less than 30 to 40 weeks from the alleged bottom candle - between 3000$ - 5000$
this will keep the 20 SMA at about 4000$ for a few months, while 50 SMA will continue to go down to the 4k zone, only then a cross will be possible and the bull market will kick.
i have not done exact calculations because it doesn't really matter, but based on these rough calculations and from comparing the the 2014-2015 chart i am almost certain that the cross will have to happen around 4k.
i don't know about you, but i rather buy at 4k in say Q4 2019 or Q1 2020 than buying at 3.5k now , i would use the cash for something else. also don't forget that we still have for face the possibility of price making another low.
there is nothing certain about bottom, it's nearly impossible to catch it, but there are many certain sings about a bull run kicking in. i rather enter a bit late and too early.
there is indeed no guarantee any of this will have to happen, price could spike up over night and that 20S MA will cross the 50 SMA in 2-3 weeks, but it's not feasible at all.
having said that, if you really don't care don't about your money sitting there doing nothing, it makes all sense to buy now, keep some if the price drops.