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Author Topic: The BEST time to buy bitcoin is not there yet,but coming soon, don't miss it !  (Read 395 times)
mikeywith
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February 03, 2019, 06:09:08 PM
Last edit: February 15, 2019, 08:23:40 PM by mikeywith
Merited by bones261 (3), exstasie (2)
 #1

  I have been comparing charts from 2014-2015 to 2018-2019 and i can't think of any more similar market behavior, and based on that , to me ,we still have a long way to go before seeing any considerable gains.

the history view , plus adding to it the concept of the golden cross which is always the best and strongest sign of any market reversal.
 
Without any further ado let's jump right into the weekly BLX chart.






looking at how price reacted to the 20 and 50 simple moving averages back in 2014-2015 , it's pretty similar to how it reacted to it in 2018 , and the similarity is still showing on the chart, it's like history all over again, and based on that, we still have a long way to go for bull market, I never look at exact periods and prices but if timing is to be the same , then here are the numbers ;

it took 440 days from the dead cross to the mark the golden cross, this puts us somewhere around September 10th 2019.


from a pure technical  point of view , it's almost always impossible to make a golden across (shift in market direction) without a quite a good period of long sideways market where price does not move much.

in 2015 it took almost 300 days from the bottom candle to the golden cross, and it only makes sense that the same thing has to happen this year, and even 20 years from now, it's basic , it's simple , it MUST always happen.

therefore based on that, it does not really make sense to buy bitcoin now for long term investment ( for day traders is a different story as sideways market can do up to 100% in btc with no problem).

also the fact that we are not certain whether we have bottomed or not adds more reasons for why do i think it's still too early to buy.

one could argue that the golden cross will happen when price has already increased from bottom, and therefore it's better to buy at the bottom, well this makes a perfect sense in a perfect world, but since we can't know where is the exact bottom, the probability of success is definitely on the golden cross side.

also based on the way these SMA look, it's pretty clear the distance from bottom to golden cross won't be much, as the 20 SMA will have start leveling off , therefore i don't think that anything above 50% increase in price from bottom to golden cross will be possible.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

TL;DR , when is should i buy? how do i know golden cross is coming,? how do i know bottom is there or almost there?

1- wait for the 20 SMA on the weekly chart to start looking level/flat ( refer to the period before the 2015 golden cross)
2- wait for the 20 SMA to cross the 50 SMA go balls deep with SL right under the 50 SMA

This is probably the safest trade one can ever make.


i would love to hear what you guys think is the best chance on charts for your long term entry?


* this is not a fiinancal advice, trading BTC is FUN risky.

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encycrypto
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February 03, 2019, 08:58:58 PM
 #2

Don't you think there is a lot of similarity in June/July 2016 action and in current action? It seems a lot similar, and June/July of 2016 was the key reversal point. I'm not very aware of the typical charting terms you used, but the current situation looks pretty similar to me if compared with June/July of 2016.

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February 03, 2019, 09:36:42 PM
 #3

Don't you think there is a lot of similarity in June/July 2016 action and in current action? It seems a lot similar, and June/July of 2016 was the key reversal point. I'm not very aware of the typical charting terms you used, but the current situation looks pretty similar to me if compared with June/July of 2016.

 I honestly do not see any similarity to June / July of 2016, those were like a small pull-back/correction of the start of the bull run, and a re-test of the prior major support.

if that is to be applied to this year,  price has to break 6k test 7-8k , bounce back to 6k ( as per june/july 2016)  

i am almost sure we are way to far from the phase, i think that is more likely to happen in Q1- 2020 at least based on the chart.

as for 2019, the most likely highest price i will be 4k to 5k, very unlikely we are going to see anything above that.

in June/July 2016 , Golden cross has already happened, price was sitting nicely above the 50 and 20 ma ,every thing was screaming bullish, now everything is shouting sideways to bear market.

I am almost certain at least Q1,Q2 and Q3 will be the most boring for years to come, most people will give up on bitcoin by then,only then the rally will start to kick in.

though nothing is 100%, but from a TA point of view ,it suggests whatever i just mentioned.


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February 03, 2019, 10:14:45 PM
 #4

as for 2019, the most likely highest price i will be 4k to 5k, very unlikely we are going to see anything above that.

The worst possible thing to hear this year... 💔

BTW, I think that you should post your analysis in Wall Observer BTC/USD thread.

mikeywith
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February 06, 2019, 03:21:51 AM
 #5

as for 2019, the most likely highest price i will be 4k to 5k, very unlikely we are going to see anything above that.

The worst possible thing to hear this year... 💔

BTW, I think that you should post your analysis in Wall Observer BTC/USD thread.

well when you are prepared for it, it won't be that bad.

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February 06, 2019, 05:56:48 AM
 #6

as for 2019, the most likely highest price i will be 4k to 5k, very unlikely we are going to see anything above that.

The worst possible thing to hear this year... 💔

BTW, I think that you should post your analysis in Wall Observer BTC/USD thread.
It is truth.  How can someone make this type of predictions and think it would came to pass.  Bitcoin has been underperforming but that did mean if it want to recover it is not going to recover fast.  Many people believe that bitcoin is not going to have strong bull run this year but it is going to be in sideway trend but I disagree with those analysis,  bitcoin is not going to get the high price of $5000 but it is going above that and give another surprise bullish movements this year 2019.

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February 06, 2019, 06:08:02 AM
 #7

looking at your chart solidifies my feeling that we're in a mid term bounce like october 2014. just look at the proportions---the crash from $6k is way too short (time wise) to expect the bottom to be in. we're missing one of two legs down.

as i've said elsewhere, i need to see higher highs and upside range expansion like october 2015 before turning bullish on the market again. that type of action should coincide with a long term golden cross.

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February 06, 2019, 06:51:48 AM
 #8

the best time to be able to buy bitcoin is now because the current price is very cheap and it is still very safe to be able to buy as much bitcoin as you can, so you should be able to take advantage of the moment to buy bitcoin, before you are late to buy.


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February 06, 2019, 09:48:29 AM
 #9

the real question is whether you want to take that risk of waiting for a lower price that may not happen or even if it happens you may not be able to catch it.
we all know these types of final sharp drops never last long and unless you take the huge risk of leaving your money on exchanges that can scam you, you won't be able to catch it and that is only if you place the order at the perfect price level days before it happens!

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February 06, 2019, 09:53:53 AM
 #10

Oh love this. Been months since I saw any speak of golden crosses. Wondering when the quadruple bottom TAs will come.

Best time to buy Bitcoin not here yet, maybe if we believe a fresh low or a series of fresh lows are coming (I believe that). But really, even if BTC becomes $1k, it's a difference of $2.3k.

When Bitcoin hits $5k, 10k and beyond... what's that 2.3k difference going to look like? Especially if it never came and you held out on buying now?

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February 06, 2019, 10:00:32 AM
 #11

the best time to be able to buy bitcoin is now because the current price is very cheap and it is still very safe to be able to buy as much bitcoin as you can, so you should be able to take advantage of the moment to buy bitcoin, before you are late to buy.
Just always buy dip but now do not invest all your money into bitcoin because there still a tendency that the price will go down. I usually buy dip and then I will hold it. Anytime you can buy bitcoin and you will never late in buying bitcoin.

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February 06, 2019, 03:28:46 PM
Merited by BitHodler (1)
 #12

Why ? Whhhyy would it make the same thing again? What makes it sooo sure that it will happen again. I can't really believe people who keep on thinking bitcoin did something once and it will do it again, why don't you guys understand just because something happened once it will happen again.

Why would it pass that golden cross again, maybe it wont ? I mean I understand its bitcoin and price will probably go up one day or another and even if it takes 20 years bitcoin will go up again but why does it have to be according to the chart ? Have you ever looked at all the charts that were shared here all this time  ?

Almost ALL of them were wrong and none of them found the perfect time to get into bitcoin, there has been a lot of charts that said THIS is the time to join and all failed. I don't doubt bitcoin will increase once again but it has nothing to do with 2014-2015 and it has nothing to do with charts as well.



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Peashooter
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February 06, 2019, 03:32:58 PM
 #13

the best time to be able to buy bitcoin is now because the current price is very cheap and it is still very safe to be able to buy as much bitcoin as you can, so you should be able to take advantage of the moment to buy bitcoin, before you are late to buy.

I already convert my savings into bitcoin even it is too risky. I already take the advantages in buying bitcoin which the price is very cheap and I just store it in my wallet which is a kind of hardware wallet. The savings that I use to buy bitcoin is my profit way back 2017.

_Crypto made easier than cash

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mikeywith
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February 06, 2019, 04:09:25 PM
 #14

looking at your chart solidifies my feeling that we're in a mid term bounce like october 2014. just look at the proportions---the crash from $6k is way too short (time wise) to expect the bottom to be in. we're missing one of two legs down.

as i've said elsewhere, i need to see higher highs and upside range expansion like october 2015 before turning bullish on the market again. that type of action should coincide with a long term golden cross.

this is the only missing part of the puzzle now, percentage wise we have dropped almost exactly as we did in 2014, time wise of first bottom candle is also almost identical from death cross , the only thing missing now is that last leg ( which is not a must anyway, but still !).

this is why i am not going balls deep in bitcoin yet, because if the market decide another leg, that leg is going to be a large one, anywhere from 1000$ to 1800$ as i don't see any major support above that.pretty soon

having said that, i am almost very confident that we will have to level off pretty son and i tend to think based on charts that we have already bottomed, but i still want to see more signs before jumping in, and the golden cross will be my all-in signal.

When Bitcoin hits $5k, 10k and beyond... what's that 2.3k difference going to look like? Especially if it never came and you held out on buying now?

you make a lot of sense, but you know that if we drop to 1k then you buy about 3 btc for each btc you can buy now, but that's not a big deal to some people, however this is not my major concern, it's the "how long" that gets me, i am not the best hodler minded out there, i don't like to keep my fortune stuck for a long time doing nothing, i am pretty sure nothing bullish is going to happen before at least Q4 of this year, i wouldn't want to put my money in bitcoin now and watch it do nothing , some people might be okay with that tho.


then wtf are you doing in price speculation? it's either technical or fundamental based topics, unless you have a magic that tells you something we all don't know. if you don't like what you see, move on, visit the off-topic and talk about flat earth. Grin

the real question is whether you want to take that risk of waiting for a lower price that may not happen or even if it happens you may not be able to catch it.


you are taking the risk if you now too, the risk is always there, there is nothing that guarantees bitcoin not going to 100$ or 50$, i simply don't make my decision on how much bitcoin is worth, price alone does not mean shit, it was cheap at  6k wasn't it ? it was cheap at 10k too, anything below ATH was cheap, people bought in and now they have either lost their money or minds, just because price is very low from ATH it doesn't mean it's time to buy it, i rather wait for clear signals even if i had to buy bitcoin for more than current price, taking less risk in itself is profit. also should the price fall to say 1k, you would be missing out on a great discount.

don't get me wrong tho, if you don't know how to read charts or you just don't care about time, it's still a very good chance to buy.

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February 06, 2019, 04:38:09 PM
 #15

in 2015 it took almost 300 days from the bottom candle to the golden cross, and it only makes sense that the same thing has to happen this year, and even 20 years from now, it's basic , it's simple , it MUST always happen.

therefore based on that, it does not really make sense to buy bitcoin now for long term investment ( for day traders is a different story as sideways market can do up to 100% in btc with no problem).

also the fact that we are not certain whether we have bottomed or not adds more reasons for why do i think it's still too early to buy.

How doesn't it make sense for long term investors to buy at current levels?

You point out that it's not certain whether we have already bottomed or not. I think what you are referring to are more short term (buy low sell high) investors. In this case there are two options. 1) you wait and risk missing a great buying opportunity. 2) you buy in right now and take the risk of seeing lower lows, but have additional funds aside to buy more on the way down.

This market rhymes, that's undoubtedly true, but it's not something I would want to wait for as being an actual long term investor/believer of the tech. Whether you buy at $3000 or $2000, in the long run it doesn't make much of a difference with how the next bull wave will catapult the price to $100,000 with enough momentum behind it. Heck, even $50,000 isn't all that bad, and the difference between buying at $3000 or $2000 is still negligible.

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February 06, 2019, 07:30:12 PM
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 #16


I touched on why i wouldn't personally buy now, this of course is different and very personal option that differs from one person to another, just because you are a long-term investor it does not make sense to keep your funds in an asset that might not move for nearly a year from now,not only that, you would also risk not being able to buy it for cheaper should it go lower, i think most of you skipped this part that i clearly stated in the OP.

Quote
also based on the way these SMA look, it's pretty clear the distance from bottom to golden cross won't be much, as the 20 SMA will have start leveling off , therefore i don't think that anything above 50% increase in price from bottom to golden cross will be possible.

maybe i miss explained it, but here is another explanation.

first let's agree on certain TA facts.

1- the SMA always levels-off before a golden cross.
2- the bull run does not happen over-night.

if we both could agree to these 2 points and here are more facts that develop based on the above points ;

-For the bull run to start, the 20 SMA MUST cross the 50 SMA , there is no argument about this TA wise.
-when that happens, price will be sitting on top of those moving averages.

having said that,the only way for the 20 MA to push though the 50 MA is by leveling-off , this will allow the 20 SMA to remain flat , while the 50 will keep dropping, therefore, reducing the gap between the two and making a cross possible.




 i drew the potential shape of SMAs , they are difficulty not even accurate , just use them to imagine how does the chart have to look like before a bull market begins.

the current reading on the 50 SMA is 6600$ simply because it contains some prices from 11k
the current reading on the 20 SMA is 4600$ they are off by about 30% , and on the weekly chart , this simply means that it's not possible for the bull market to kick in any time soon.

so here is the likely scenario, price will range for not less than 30 to 40 weeks from the alleged bottom candle - between 3000$ - 5000$

this will keep the 20 SMA at about 4000$ for a few months, while 50 SMA will continue to go down to the 4k zone, only then a cross will be possible and the bull market will kick.

i have not done exact calculations because it doesn't really matter, but based on these rough calculations and from comparing the the 2014-2015 chart i am almost certain that the cross will have to happen around 4k.

i don't know about you, but i rather buy at 4k in say Q4 2019 or Q1 2020 than buying at 3.5k now , i would use the cash for something else. also don't forget that we still have for face the possibility of price making another low.

there is nothing certain about bottom, it's nearly impossible to catch it, but there are many certain sings about a bull run kicking in. i rather enter a bit late and too early.

there is indeed no guarantee any of this will have to happen, price could spike up over night and that 20S MA will cross the 50 SMA in 2-3 weeks, but it's not feasible at all.

having said that, if you really don't care don't about your money sitting there doing nothing, it makes all sense to buy now, keep some if the price drops.

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February 06, 2019, 07:59:46 PM
 #17

Why ? Whhhyy would it make the same thing again? What makes it sooo sure that it will happen again. I can't really believe people who keep on thinking bitcoin did something once and it will do it again, why don't you guys understand just because something happened once it will happen again.

Why would it pass that golden cross again, maybe it wont ? I mean I understand its bitcoin and price will probably go up one day or another and even if it takes 20 years bitcoin will go up again but why does it have to be according to the chart ? Have you ever looked at all the charts that were shared here all this time  ?

Almost ALL of them were wrong and none of them found the perfect time to get into bitcoin, there has been a lot of charts that said THIS is the time to join and all failed. I don't doubt bitcoin will increase once again but it has nothing to do with 2014-2015 and it has nothing to do with charts as well.
It's called hindsight analysis. If things were so obvious, why didn't any of these so called TA cowboys pointed out the importance of the corrective cross? They probably didn't because they might have thought it would pump....

The thing with traders is that you cant blame them even if they guess wrong, because it's a probability based trade that they either win or lose, and that's always what they point to when they guess wrong.

People have been quite bearish already, so they expect lower prices even without an indication or understanding of TA. If we do head lower, TA cowboys and those blindly guessing that the price will go down are right. We'll see.

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February 06, 2019, 08:22:31 PM
 #18

Why ? Whhhyy would it make the same thing again? What makes it sooo sure that it will happen again. I can't really believe people who keep on thinking bitcoin did something once and it will do it again, why don't you guys understand just because something happened once it will happen again.

I think you're misreading him. More than anything else, the OP is just stating what to look for when the market is transitioning to bullish. He's not saying what needs to happen or when. He's just stressing patience and then suggesting how you can react to changing market conditions by using MA crosses.

Why would it pass that golden cross again, maybe it wont ? I mean I understand its bitcoin and price will probably go up one day or another and even if it takes 20 years bitcoin will go up again but why does it have to be according to the chart ? Have you ever looked at all the charts that were shared here all this time  ?

The chart will tell us when the golden cross occurs. Then we can react.

I agree with him. People averaging down into this market and letting their losses run obviously have money to burn. If you're concerned with preserving your capital, buying at $4K+ off a golden cross 9 months from now is infinitely smarter than buying now.

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February 06, 2019, 08:54:08 PM
 #19

the real question is whether you want to take that risk of waiting for a lower price that may not happen or even if it happens you may not be able to catch it.
we all know these types of final sharp drops never last long and unless you take the huge risk of leaving your money on exchanges that can scam you, you won't be able to catch it and that is only if you place the order at the perfect price level days before it happens!


Exactly. Waiting and hoping for some specific low price could either end up great or make someone totally miss the bottom when it never comes. That strategy involves hoping to get lucky which is never a good strategy.

The other strategy is waiting for a clear sign that the market is moving up for good, by which time you'll have missed the bottom as well.

The best/safest strategy is to accumulate over the course of this entire bottoming out process. So you can have started accumulating since November or start now for anyone who hasn't already started accumulating. Keep buying regularly throughout the coming months until the price starts moving upwards which will probably be sometime the second half of this year - so plenty of time to accumulate! And of course one could keep accumulating as the next bull market begins, or could just sit back and watch the bottom Bitcoin you bought grow exponentially.
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February 06, 2019, 08:58:58 PM
 #20

Why ? Whhhyy would it make the same thing again? What makes it sooo sure that it will happen again. I can't really believe people who keep on thinking bitcoin did something once and it will do it again, why don't you guys understand just because something happened once it will happen again.

I think you're misreading him. More than anything else, the OP is just stating what to look for when the market is transitioning to bullish. He's not saying what needs to happen or when. He's just stressing patience and then suggesting how you can react to changing market conditions by using MA crosses.

Why would it pass that golden cross again, maybe it wont ? I mean I understand its bitcoin and price will probably go up one day or another and even if it takes 20 years bitcoin will go up again but why does it have to be according to the chart ? Have you ever looked at all the charts that were shared here all this time  ?

The chart will tell us when the golden cross occurs. Then we can react.

I agree with him. People averaging down into this market and letting their losses run obviously have money to burn. If you're concerned with preserving your capital, buying at $4K+ off a golden cross 9 months from now is infinitely smarter than buying now.


Getting a worse price later on is infinitely better than getting a better price now? Interesting investing strategy. though the math on that doesn't really pan out ;p

The only reason I would see for that is if you don't believe in Bitcoin and aren't sure it is going to go back up so you'd rather wait for signs that it is for sure going to go up and get less buying power than get a better deal earlier when you are scared Bitcoin might disappear.
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