Bitcoin Forum

sup people !

 so up to this point, the 2014-2015 seems to be playing out quite accurately, or maybe because we have no better reference, this seems to be the only proper way to make these long-term analysis.


https://i.imgur.com/hEBOHfB.png


looking at the weekly chart, 2015 aside, we can clearly see that the 40-42 zone on the RSI has been the most circuital area for the lower side of the market.

by looking at the 2015 bottom, we have the following.

a major drop to around 28 level on the weekly RSI,  3 breakout failures, a break out , a retest and a bull run.

so what do we have in common so far ?

a major drop to around 28 on , 1st attempt to break above is about to happen - this leads to a short term market analysis ;

For this mini rally we having, many traders are calling for a test for the 6k area, but why do i doubt that? along side with many other inductions, breaking the 42 RSI on the weekly is something MAJOR , i don't see it happening this time, we are already at 39.5 , i don't see much room for price to move up , a few hundreds is probably it ,if ever.

Back to the long term view, now assuming the theory remain valid and we drop from the 40-42 level, we should head back to 3.3 to 3.4k where the 50SMA on the monthly and the 200SMA on the weekly sit, we then need to test the 40-42 level again maybe 2 times, once we break it, we going to test it again, fail to break below and the bull run begins.

this puts us some where around July, tho timing is not important, it's all about breaking that 42 level and then retesting it , that will probably be the best time to go long if you want to watch your portfolio grow every week, but as far as we are below the 42 RSI on the weekly, chances are we going sideways or dipping even more.


This is not financial advice, buy/ sell as you see fit at your own responsibility.

 

I am just so happy that I am not the only one who has faith in the market this year and believe that we are definitely going to see a bull run in the price of bitcoin and order relevant cryptocurrency in the next few months to come in 2019.

There are a lot of persons who have already given up on crypto because of the lost they faced in 2017/2018 but I have been advising them this year to forget about that lost and focus on the profit they could actually make when we begin to see a bull run in price this year.

No matter how good the prognosis looks, the market is not definite and we can only be optimistic but never completely convinced about the outcome.
Checking the price now I can see it's dropped below the $4k mark. I do not follow up the charts as often as before, I prefer to hodl and wait for whenever it reaches myself target profit.

Well said! Bitcoin price had prove out for a thousand times that it doesn't really follow on TA's analysis anytime.It can break out nor follow, no one really knows
and that's why im not relying too much to look actively or do make chartings but well we do have our own ways but it isn't really bad to have some analysis at all
rather than seeing blindly.

What makes you so confident that a bull run is due this year? More hopium is definitely not what these people need.

I honestly think that it's more likely that 2019 will be quite boring overall, and if we do happen to see an increase of some sort, it won't be anything like a bull run. On top of that, due to clowns such as Tom Lee people have given up on perma bull type of predictions, and that's actually a good thing. It's super deceiving to promise people golden mountains while the market is a pile of rubbish in the short to mid term.

From the point of view of technical analysis what you say is valid, what happens is that the conditions in 2014 and 2015 were very different from those now, if we take into account 2018-2019. I agree only that it has been 1 year of the accumulation phase, so it lasted until 2017, so that bitcoin was located in an uptrend.

If we are guided by repetition of the story, we should wait at least until the year 2021, which, would be 4 years of the accumulation phase to enter the uptrend.

But to say that this year we reach an ascending phase, it is not impossible, but in reality it is very difficult, normally the Maker Markets, usually wait a long time in the accumulation phase (according to my analysis in the philosophy of Wyckoff) until El 70 80% of the bitcoins are accumulated, at that time, it would be predicted that the bitcoin price would be ready to start its bullish.

indeed things are different now, but this does not invalidate the high possibility of things happening again, things can happen 1 month/ 6 months earlier or later than how they happened in the past, also giving the size of btc market, values can differ 10%/100% , but the overall picture is  most likely going to be the same.

well the real question is whether you think bitcoin has stopped growing or being adopted.
if yes then you can conclude that there will be no more rises this year and we will continue seeing price going sideways or even drop more.
but if you think it is still growing and the adoption is happening then you can't say there is no rise this year. we have already had the drop which purged the market from that "hopium" dudes and all traces of the bubble and then some. so there is no other option left but to rise after this accumulation phase ended. and this phase can't take much longer.

I definitely see what you're pointing to, but with only one past data point, it's tough to get married to anything. I think every bubble/bear market cycle will play out differently.

What I think many analysts aren't accounting for is the time aspect. This market moves so much slower than it used to, slower every day. So I'm hesitant to be glued to indicators regarding long term analysis.

$6K is bit much to ask but I'm bullish for another leg up over the next month or so.

I agree to the year 2021 and not this year like OP had to speculate I am pretty sure that the price needs to take a break from al sudden pump and dump it had that is why the correction for the price needs to kick in for a while, I guess there are people here that really want the price to tun to bull run this year but I guess we still need to wait for a sudden breakthrough with the movement and in my opinion it is not the time yet, in the recent bull run we see that the price needs an on break from that sudden spike of price, We just need to have faith, patient and the determination that bitcoin price will keep its cycle repeat for another bull run.

Think of it like gas, not the ethereum gas we all talk about here but the normal gas we all know, if you put gas into a balloon for example it is going to fill it and that is it, if you put it in a container it will be a bit tighter there since it can't move the way it was, and if you make it even smaller with time than it will explode.

Right now, bitcoin price and the whole market is like gas, it was in a balloon for all 2018 and it moved however it wanted, in 2019 we are at a small container, and each time it tries to move to any direction it gets smaller and smaller, the price used to go between 3400 to 4200, now it goes 3800 to 4100 , lets see how smaller the movements can get before we can have a huge out break. I don't know which side it will be towards but I feel like upwards is a good bet at this point.

On this era, it is really hard to be optimistic and find things to make us at least feel well. Let's say the chart is looking good and the price went to $4k mark but what the next days, it fell down again. If you really want to have profits, you can actually hodl and wait for the moment to come. That is the best option we have today since we always keep being optimistic and disappointed. We have to learn from those.

Since we did not have any accurate historical data we can only know the position of the trend using 2015 price action.  The relatively straight index indicator is one of the indicators we can used to measure the straight of a trend over time and we can actually used this your analysis to forecasts the position of the market over time.  I agree with this op analysis and what some of us has commented and it seems the bull trend is about to commence and the sideways trend is almost over.

Yeah, sorry OP. I doubt you'll find a place with more bullish Bitcoiners than here, but I think even the most optimistic of us aren't seeing any writing on the wall for the horned beast we're waiting for.

And as much as we've been able to see some repeats in Bitcoin's relatively short decade of trading, it's becoming clear that comparisons should also be aligned with volume and frequency. So if we are to follow patterns, we should correspond at least those two as well. I'd argue because there are more users now, volume+frequency should also be in proportion to users/traders.

I'm bullish, but prepared to wait til at least 2020 to find some succour.

I do mostly agree with this.

Even though there are valid concerns that past performances does not always equal what the future holds, I think that a combination of the intrinsic cycles that are present within the bitcoin market, with the halving happening at a regular, periodic time, which increases scarcity of new supply; as well as the psychological factor that people do expect this bear market to somewhat coincide with the past one, essentially forming a self fulfilling prophecy, means that I think in terms of percentage change, and time this bear market should be quite similar to the 2014-15 one.

It's very possible that short term dips are still possible, though I don't think we'll see large scale panic dumps anymore in the short run. As you suggest - a bullish breakout is imminent (I think in the next 2 years at max), even though we may regress to past price floors.

I used to believe in that up until last year. now what I believe in is basically the same thing but with an addendum! .... unless everyone in the market starts following the same trend!

there was no reason for the bear market to continue like this from the ATH. there was no reason for it to last this long or fall this much but it did following mostly the same trends as 2013 and 2014. and so far in 2019 we are following the 2015 patterns of stability and if we see a rise similar to that year then from now on I would expect the same nonsense to be repeated every 3 or 4 years!

Yeah me too. 2018 made me skeptical about following historical trends since that can prove to be a trap. Even if we're moving quite similar to the 2015 trend, no one knows until when that'll be the case. It can veer away at any time leaving those who follow 2015 trends in losses.

I don't understand why do most people underestimate historical data, when we were ranging at 6k for months, i looked at the charts and it was clear as day that based on the past we have to take a good dive, but i was one of the people who would say " nah , bitcoin is now totally different and it does not have to repeat it's past actions" , luckily enough i dumped it at around 5700> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg48030883#msg48030883

since then i have paying close attention to 2014-2015 , and there are more similarities than differences regardless of how big the market is now compared to the past, we have only a small amount of data so far, but for years to come we will be more certain of what's going to happen, and whether we would always follow the same patterns from the past or reinvent the wheel.

I see on picture you even dated it 8th July. Sounds funny.  Considering everything we know so far, it should happen end of summer early autumn. But I would not dare set such predictions can be months earlier or latter. But I would not bet on earlier.




How did 2018 made you skeptical if it was almost identical as 2014?

If Bitcoin has the chance to trigger the bull market its best time is right now, slow movements upward to 4,000$ level is an ideal thing to see as buyers and sellers of BTC have been pushing it upwards without any sudden drops. Another failure to breakout the 4,200$ level would only extend the bear market but I do think the positive outcome happening from that is we the investors could have the last attempts to buy BTC cheap before it takes off to another bull run.

Honestly the only people who gave on up on bitcoin after 2018 are the people who got in in 2017. Anyone who has been around for a while understands 2018/2019 is normal market cycle for bitcoin. And given that the price is still has high as it was in late spring / early summer of 2017 some of the people who first bought in in 2017 and 2018 are still in it as well. Its hard to endure your first bitcoin crash. I myself made the mistake of selling it all at the bottom after buying from late-2013 into 2014. Now that I'm on my second bitcoin market cycle I knew to buy in spring/summer/fall of 2017 (stop buying at 7000), and then i waited for the bottom and been accumulating for four months now in the 3000s. Plenty of people who bought in 2017 and don't believe in it anymore will come back into the market when it hits $20k again in a couple years and then they'll know either to sell before the crash or at least hold through the crash and buy at the bottom before the following bull run.

History points to 2019 starting the next bull run. Last market cycle the bottom lasted about 9 months before the bull run started. We're 4 months into the bottom now, if it were to be the same duration we'd have a bull run starting in late summer (right around when the OP says it will start - july/august). I'm not saying the bottom this time will be the same duration as the last one, it could be shorter and a bull run could start in the next 2 or 3 months, or it could take longer and not happen until late in the year, but I think its pretty unreasonable to think the price will stay range bound at the bottom for more than a year. People are accumulating all through this period eating up sellers bitcoin and sentiment naturally improves the longer the bottom goes on as more and more people realize its not going any lower. Not to mention Wall St things happening in Bitcoin, merchant adoption, LN promotion stuff, etc. The bottom is only gonna last so long and I think it is reasonable to believe it will end well before the end of this year.

Now of course we shouldn't expect great growth this year, the bull market starts slow and heats up over the course of a couple years, and doesn't get crazy until the price has built back a solid price above the previous short lived ATH. Then FOMO and hype takes care of the rest. 2019 we should expect prices to move off the bottom and the next bull market to start, but I certainly wouldn't expect anything more than 100% growth this year (~$8k), and it might only be like $6k which would be fine.

I appreciate the TA, but it would be easy if history will repeat itself, so I'm not so confident with that.
Honestly, I'm seeing a lot of TAs, including this one, but I'm just a bias person since I only watch those that gives better prediction for this year and the years to come. I guess what's more important now is to see some kind of bullish news that will drive the price up instantly.

Update:

to a very good extent we are still following 2014-2015, despite that the breakout accrued a little earlier than "planned".

this week large candle was intercepted in this thread >    https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5125728.msg50358025#msg50358025    

where i used simple SMA comparison from chart history.

now looking at the RSI on the weekly we did break the 42 level to the upside, we suppose to re-test it in about 1.5 months time, and from there the bull run should start.

https://i.imgur.com/dvhIBii.png

You did quite hit the mark with your ta a month ago dude good work. Not really a fan of TAs but when someone shows me how they do it and then gets a result later on, they deserve a thumbs up 👍. I've saved a screen shot of your post here and let' see in another month and a half bro.

Yeah this was the first topic came to my mind when I saw the price going up, just to make it clear, do you think we will stay at around the same price before we test another increase in 1.5 times or we will go back down and comeback here for the test ? I meant like are we gonna be around 5k and than try to go to 7k+ or are we gonna fall back to 3840 levels first and than test the 7k+ levels in 1.5 month time ?

Because, if it is the first one I am just gonna keep on waiting but if it is the second one than I am going to sell here and rebuy at 3800 levels and than wait for the increase again. I do not have the biggest of faiths in the price at this level because usually after an increase if price stops for too long it has a correction down before trying to go up again.

ok first of all let me begin wtith stating the fact that you should never wait for a particular exact number to enter / exist, all numbers shown by me or any other TA person are just estimations of "areas"/"levels" where price could so something.

I predicted the move to go to as high 5600$ but i sold at around 5450$ , simply because some weakness in the up trend started to show, so waiting for an exact number is a terrible strategy to say the least.


now to answer your question , you know that for this med/long term analysis i am using the 2014-2015 to kind of get an idea about what is going to happen next, an according to that, we should have another leg down, history suggests that we should go to as low as the 200SMA on the weekly which is now @ about 3700$. but we do have some strong supports level which you should be watching for should price decides to correct a bit earlier.

I have talked about them here  > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5125728.msg50504453#msg50504453


and i do not think we going to see 7k or anything close to that until Juny/July at best case scenario.

This market move in faces and I do believe that this side trend in bitcoin pricing is almost coming to an end and very soon we are going to see more bullish trend in few months to come.  We are having almost all the coins showing positive recovery this day.

That is beginning of June?  I am sorry but you are way to early. August is earliest. But most likely will happen in September.

you know I don't decide when and what does the price have to be, it's all based on the charts that we have at our disposal, and i can very easily be wrong. apparently for you to say that August is the earliest, it has to be based on one of two things

1- crystal ball.
2- another analysis.

i would love to see that facts that led you to think my theory is wrong, and yours is more likely to be true.

Thanks

I agree. In short term we might be bullish but not yet in long term charts. The golden cross in short term charts is definitely suggesting that we will cross over $5400 easily. But are we yet ready for $6k. I guess not. Bitcoin will retrace and will stay in $4k range for more time to come before an actual bullish phase.

$5.400 is like tomorrow. Since April 1st the value increases by $200 each week. When you look behind, it's not bad for BTC. I suppose we can say that the bullish phase already started, especially if it continues like this. Maybe it's just that it doesn't behave like we're used to seeing.

I think we can slowly go up but there is no telling when we will stop going sideways there is such a large gap between now and the next halving.
we could even still go down before going up again

There is no such a thing as definitely in any market. It all comes down to the state of the market when the Golden cross happens. If a market is already overbought, and near a level at which the price will face fierce resistance, the Golden cross might not lead to a price increase at all, and in some cases can even trigger sales. 

Another thing is that with how people now have had enough time to prepare themselves for certain events, the effectiveness of a specific event on the price will decrease. What you have is a price increase in the runup to the event, but a stagnant and decreasing price just before/after the event.

Although I believe that the bull run will happen this 2019 because odd years favour cryptocurrency, we can not say for certain if that has begun now. In this speculative industry everyone gropes in the dark, TA or not. Fundamentals are more important in this industry than technical because a coin can dump (with bad news) as quickly as it pumps (with good news).

that is just your superstition talking. and a misinformed one at that! there has been many "even years" that price actually went up a lot like 2016 with 120% rise or 2012 with 600% rise

but it has already begun! in the past months price has risen about 77%, don't you think that huge rise is a "bull run"? or are you expecting 1000000% and call that a "bull run"?

Honestly, I feel like the sideway movements already ended. I know we are still going up only a little and than stay the same but if you look at the price its always trying to go up, even if it fails and goes back than he rallies back up and tries again, I am 100% sure even if we fail this time as well we will try until we break it and than we will move all the way to 6+ thousand dollars. That is why I am calling this an "end" for the sideway markets since we are not staying at the same place for a long time.

I think the clearest reason why the sideway market ended was that bitcoin couldn't drop any further, whales couldn't make any money from dropping the price anymore and it was difficult and costed a lot to drop the price so they eventually realized going up would be easier now.

I doubt about it, not that I am negative thinking person, but the market hasn't fully recovered yet, it can be seen from a several good news the price still hasn't want to go up, it indicates that the investors still hesitate to put the money, the technical analysis is looking good and I hope that it will makes the confidence going up, but its all just prediction and speculation still need to keep on watching how the market reacted

Yes but you and me have same carts. There cant be two, since is only one Bitcoin. Your predictions are to optimistic.

The sudden movements and ups and downs were really expected eventually, this is not something surprising that is actually happening, the surprise is the date actually. We didn't know when it will happen not if it will happen and now that we are in it we feel much better about it honestly.

Bitcoin has been in the downturn ever since that 2017 December spike and we have been going down so much that anytime we say "it can't go down more" it did went down more so it was really a horrible time for all investors and traders in the crypto space. How long could it last, I mean what were we expecting a 5 year downturn ? That would never happen, that is why we are finally at the place we deserve and I feel like we can move higher a bit slowly but assuredly in order to gain all what we have lost.

For Bitcoin? Of course not.

A more accurate way to look at things is this: Price crashed by $16,500 (or 84%) and we have retraced a mere 14% of those losses. We haven't even reached the first significant fib retracement level. We are in no man's land. We shouldn't be calling it a bull run when we haven't even recovered lost support levels from 2018.

I'm hoping this is a replay of summer 2015, which was an important part of the bottoming process but wasn't the beginning of a bull run at all. Repeating 2015 would mean we're still going back to the $3,000s.

We all have the exact same chart, but it is about how you make use of it, my analysis are 100% based on exact numbers from the 2014/2015 , i am not being opistimic, it is what the charts are saying , but judging by your words we seem to be having a misunderstanding ,  so what is it you think i meant to happen on june ?

THe only problem for me with this end to sideways is what happened in the Autumn.   We had a falling wedge I think occur at that point and it kept having to be redrawn because it went past all estimates, it carried on sideways for some time like wile e coyote and roadrunner it defied gravity.    Only some news destabilised that trend and it left the support area and fell.   It was probably better to call it after the support fall, it halted for some time in this same area we are now and then properly fell by 4 digits not 3.    I think the whole of 2019 is most likely a sideways type movement, relative to BTC massive movements of course I mean that

In June we will be most likely having bear trap. Could be in July.

First let's agree on what does a sideways market means, for the sake of simplicity let's put in a simple explanation, if you look at the chart

the longest sideways market we had so far was from 12/01/2015 to 17/08/2015 which was exactly 217 days, from there we started making higher highs and have not made any lower lows for years.


now assuming we have bottomed at 3100-3200$ on  last year dec 10th then it only makes sense that by July at most, we should mark that low which we should never see again, and that is what i mean by end of sideways market.

Well indeed the price was were was on March, but this month the price grow, and i think the price will continue grow but also there can be some periods of time when price go down and grow continue after.

This month is actually better than last month in terms of pricing and for those that buy into bitcoin at the beginning of this year are now in good profits and we hope this is going to continue.  I have tried to invest in some of the coins this January and currently I am in profit. The sideway trend is almost over and very soon bullish trend will commence in full force .

By and large, it’s all the same when Bitcoin exceeds 6000, a month earlier or a month later, it doesn’t play any big role. If you are carrying long-term plans for investing in Bitcoin, then you should not be very worried about this. Just buy btc right now. And it will be a very good decision.