The end of the sideways market is only a few months a head. TA

[thecodebear]

I am just so happy that I am not the only one who has faith in the market this year and believe that we are definitely going to see a bull run in the price of bitcoin and order relevant cryptocurrency in the next few months to come in 2019.

There are a lot of persons who have already given up on crypto because of the lost they faced in 2017/2018 but I have been advising them this year to forget about that lost and focus on the profit they could actually make when we begin to see a bull run in price this year.

Honestly the only people who gave on up on bitcoin after 2018 are the people who got in in 2017. Anyone who has been around for a while understands 2018/2019 is normal market cycle for bitcoin. And given that the price is still has high as it was in late spring / early summer of 2017 some of the people who first bought in in 2017 and 2018 are still in it as well. Its hard to endure your first bitcoin crash. I myself made the mistake of selling it all at the bottom after buying from late-2013 into 2014. Now that I'm on my second bitcoin market cycle I knew to buy in spring/summer/fall of 2017 (stop buying at 7000), and then i waited for the bottom and been accumulating for four months now in the 3000s. Plenty of people who bought in 2017 and don't believe in it anymore will come back into the market when it hits $20k again in a couple years and then they'll know either to sell before the crash or at least hold through the crash and buy at the bottom before the following bull run.

[thecodebear]

There are a lot of persons who have already given up on crypto because of the lost they faced in 2017/2018 but I have been advising them this year to forget about that lost and focus on the profit they could actually make when we begin to see a bull run in price this year.

What makes you so confident that a bull run is due this year? More hopium is definitely not what these people need.

I honestly think that it's more likely that 2019 will be quite boring overall, and if we do happen to see an increase of some sort, it won't be anything like a bull run. On top of that, due to clowns such as Tom Lee people have given up on perma bull type of predictions, and that's actually a good thing. It's super deceiving to promise people golden mountains while the market is a pile of rubbish in the short to mid term.

History points to 2019 starting the next bull run. Last market cycle the bottom lasted about 9 months before the bull run started. We're 4 months into the bottom now, if it were to be the same duration we'd have a bull run starting in late summer (right around when the OP says it will start - july/august). I'm not saying the bottom this time will be the same duration as the last one, it could be shorter and a bull run could start in the next 2 or 3 months, or it could take longer and not happen until late in the year, but I think its pretty unreasonable to think the price will stay range bound at the bottom for more than a year. People are accumulating all through this period eating up sellers bitcoin and sentiment naturally improves the longer the bottom goes on as more and more people realize its not going any lower. Not to mention Wall St things happening in Bitcoin, merchant adoption, LN promotion stuff, etc. The bottom is only gonna last so long and I think it is reasonable to believe it will end well before the end of this year.

Now of course we shouldn't expect great growth this year, the bull market starts slow and heats up over the course of a couple years, and doesn't get crazy until the price has built back a solid price above the previous short lived ATH. Then FOMO and hype takes care of the rest. 2019 we should expect prices to move off the bottom and the next bull market to start, but I certainly wouldn't expect anything more than 100% growth this year (~$8k), and it might only be like $6k which would be fine.

[Ipwich]

I appreciate the TA, but it would be easy if history will repeat itself, so I'm not so confident with that.
Honestly, I'm seeing a lot of TAs, including this one, but I'm just a bias person since I only watch those that gives better prediction for this year and the years to come. I guess what's more important now is to see some kind of bullish news that will drive the price up instantly.

[mikeywith]

Update:

to a very good extent we are still following 2014-2015, despite that the breakout accrued a little earlier than "planned".

this week large candle was intercepted in this thread >    https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5125728.msg50358025#msg50358025    

where i used simple SMA comparison from chart history.

now looking at the RSI on the weekly we did break the 42 level to the upside, we suppose to re-test it in about 1.5 months time, and from there the bull run should start.

[Malsetid]

Update:

to a very good extent we are still following 2014-2015, despite that the breakout accrued a little earlier than "planned".

this week large candle was intercepted in this thread >         

where i used simple SMA comparison from chart history.

now looking at the RSI on the weekly we did break the 42 level to the upside, we suppose to re-test it in about 1.5 months time, and from there the bull run should start.

You did quite hit the mark with your ta a month ago dude good work. Not really a fan of TAs but when someone shows me how they do it and then gets a result later on, they deserve a thumbs up 👍. I've saved a screen shot of your post here and let' see in another month and a half bro.

[wuvdoll]

Yeah this was the first topic came to my mind when I saw the price going up, just to make it clear, do you think we will stay at around the same price before we test another increase in 1.5 times or we will go back down and comeback here for the test ? I meant like are we gonna be around 5k and than try to go to 7k+ or are we gonna fall back to 3840 levels first and than test the 7k+ levels in 1.5 month time ?

Because, if it is the first one I am just gonna keep on waiting but if it is the second one than I am going to sell here and rebuy at 3800 levels and than wait for the increase again. I do not have the biggest of faiths in the price at this level because usually after an increase if price stops for too long it has a correction down before trying to go up again.

[mikeywith]

ok first of all let me begin wtith stating the fact that you should never wait for a particular exact number to enter / exist, all numbers shown by me or any other TA person are just estimations of "areas"/"levels" where price could so something.

I predicted the move to go to as high 5600$ but i sold at around 5450$ , simply because some weakness in the up trend started to show, so waiting for an exact number is a terrible strategy to say the least.


now to answer your question , you know that for this med/long term analysis i am using the 2014-2015 to kind of get an idea about what is going to happen next, an according to that, we should have another leg down, history suggests that we should go to as low as the 200SMA on the weekly which is now @ about 3700$. but we do have some strong supports level which you should be watching for should price decides to correct a bit earlier.

I have talked about them here  > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5125728.msg50504453#msg50504453


and i do not think we going to see 7k or anything close to that until Juny/July at best case scenario.

[Idrisu]

sup people !

 so up to this point, the 2014-2015 seems to be playing out quite accurately, or maybe because we have no better reference, this seems to be the only proper way to make these long-term analysis.





looking at the weekly chart, 2015 aside, we can clearly see that the 40-42 zone on the RSI has been the most circuital area for the lower side of the market.

by looking at the 2015 bottom, we have the following.

a major drop to around 28 level on the weekly RSI,  3 breakout failures, a break out , a retest and a bull run.

so what do we have in common so far ?

a major drop to around 28 on , 1st attempt to break above is about to happen - this leads to a short term market analysis ;

For this mini rally we having, many traders are calling for a test for the 6k area, but why do i doubt that? along side with many other inductions, breaking the 42 RSI on the weekly is something MAJOR , i don't see it happening this time, we are already at 39.5 , i don't see much room for price to move up , a few hundreds is probably it ,if ever.

Back to the long term view, now assuming the theory remain valid and we drop from the 40-42 level, we should head back to 3.3 to 3.4k where the 50SMA on the monthly and the 200SMA on the weekly sit, we then need to test the 40-42 level again maybe 2 times, once we break it, we going to test it again, fail to break below and the bull run begins.

this puts us some where around July, tho timing is not important, it's all about breaking that 42 level and then retesting it , that will probably be the best time to go long if you want to watch your portfolio grow every week, but as far as we are below the 42 RSI on the weekly, chances are we going sideways or dipping even more.


This is not financial advice, buy/ sell as you see fit at your own responsibility.

 

This market move in faces and I do believe that this side trend in bitcoin pricing is almost coming to an end and very soon we are going to see more bullish trend in few months to come.  We are having almost all the coins showing positive recovery this day.

[Febo]

now looking at the RSI on the weekly we did break the 42 level to the upside, we suppose to re-test it in about 1.5 months time, and from there the bull run should start.

That is beginning of June?  I am sorry but you are way to early. August is earliest. But most likely will happen in September.

[mikeywith]

That is beginning of June?  I am sorry but you are way to early. August is earliest. But most likely will happen in September.

you know I don't decide when and what does the price have to be, it's all based on the charts that we have at our disposal, and i can very easily be wrong. apparently for you to say that August is the earliest, it has to be based on one of two things

1- crystal ball.
2- another analysis.

i would love to see that facts that led you to think my theory is wrong, and yours is more likely to be true.

Thanks

[senne]

I agree. In short term we might be bullish but not yet in long term charts. The golden cross in short term charts is definitely suggesting that we will cross over $5400 easily. But are we yet ready for $6k. I guess not. Bitcoin will retrace and will stay in $4k range for more time to come before an actual bullish phase.

[LeGaulois]

I agree. In short term we might be bullish but not yet in long term charts. The golden cross in short term charts is definitely suggesting that we will cross over $5400 easily. But are we yet ready for $6k. I guess not. Bitcoin will retrace and will stay in $4k range for more time to come before an actual bullish phase.

$5.400 is like tomorrow. Since April 1st the value increases by $200 each week. When you look behind, it's not bad for BTC. I suppose we can say that the bullish phase already started, especially if it continues like this. Maybe it's just that it doesn't behave like we're used to seeing.

[Rune]

I think we can slowly go up but there is no telling when we will stop going sideways there is such a large gap between now and the next halving.
we could even still go down before going up again

[1Referee]

I agree. In short term we might be bullish but not yet in long term charts. The golden cross in short term charts is definitely suggesting that we will cross over $5400 easily. But are we yet ready for $6k. I guess not. Bitcoin will retrace and will stay in $4k range for more time to come before an actual bullish phase.

There is no such a thing as definitely in any market. It all comes down to the state of the market when the Golden cross happens. If a market is already overbought, and near a level at which the price will face fierce resistance, the Golden cross might not lead to a price increase at all, and in some cases can even trigger sales. 

Another thing is that with how people now have had enough time to prepare themselves for certain events, the effectiveness of a specific event on the price will decrease. What you have is a price increase in the runup to the event, but a stagnant and decreasing price just before/after the event.

[Mpamaegbu]

Although I believe that the bull run will happen this 2019 because odd years favour cryptocurrency, we can not say for certain if that has begun now. In this speculative industry everyone gropes in the dark, TA or not. Fundamentals are more important in this industry than technical because a coin can dump (with bad news) as quickly as it pumps (with good news).

[pooya87]

odd years favour cryptocurrency,

that is just your superstition talking. and a misinformed one at that! there has been many "even years" that price actually went up a lot like 2016 with 120% rise or 2012 with 600% rise

we can not say for certain if that has begun now.

but it has already begun! in the past months price has risen about 77%, don't you think that huge rise is a "bull run"? or are you expecting 1000000% and call that a "bull run"?

[Kevin77]

Honestly, I feel like the sideway movements already ended. I know we are still going up only a little and than stay the same but if you look at the price its always trying to go up, even if it fails and goes back than he rallies back up and tries again, I am 100% sure even if we fail this time as well we will try until we break it and than we will move all the way to 6+ thousand dollars. That is why I am calling this an "end" for the sideway markets since we are not staying at the same place for a long time.

I think the clearest reason why the sideway market ended was that bitcoin couldn't drop any further, whales couldn't make any money from dropping the price anymore and it was difficult and costed a lot to drop the price so they eventually realized going up would be easier now.

[Indrawan77]

I am just so happy that I am not the only one who has faith in the market this year and believe that we are definitely going to see a bull run in the price of bitcoin and order relevant cryptocurrency in the next few months to come in 2019.

There are a lot of persons who have already given up on crypto because of the lost they faced in 2017/2018 but I have been advising them this year to forget about that lost and focus on the profit they could actually make when we begin to see a bull run in price this year.

I doubt about it, not that I am negative thinking person, but the market hasn't fully recovered yet, it can be seen from a several good news the price still hasn't want to go up, it indicates that the investors still hesitate to put the money, the technical analysis is looking good and I hope that it will makes the confidence going up, but its all just prediction and speculation still need to keep on watching how the market reacted

[Febo]

That is beginning of June?  I am sorry but you are way to early. August is earliest. But most likely will happen in September.

you know I don't decide when and what does the price have to be, it's all based on the charts that we have at our disposal, and i can very easily be wrong. apparently for you to say that August is the earliest, it has to be based on one of two things

Yes but you and me have same carts. There cant be two, since is only one Bitcoin. Your predictions are to optimistic.

[Kevin77]

The sudden movements and ups and downs were really expected eventually, this is not something surprising that is actually happening, the surprise is the date actually. We didn't know when it will happen not if it will happen and now that we are in it we feel much better about it honestly.

Bitcoin has been in the downturn ever since that 2017 December spike and we have been going down so much that anytime we say "it can't go down more" it did went down more so it was really a horrible time for all investors and traders in the crypto space. How long could it last, I mean what were we expecting a 5 year downturn ? That would never happen, that is why we are finally at the place we deserve and I feel like we can move higher a bit slowly but assuredly in order to gain all what we have lost.