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Author Topic: The end of the sideways market is only a few months a head. TA  (Read 519 times)
mikeywith
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March 10, 2019, 01:07:58 AM
Last edit: March 10, 2019, 03:21:53 PM by mikeywith
Merited by dbshck (4), The Pharmacist (2)
 #1

sup people !

 so up to this point, the 2014-2015 seems to be playing out quite accurately, or maybe because we have no better reference, this seems to be the only proper way to make these long-term analysis.





looking at the weekly chart, 2015 aside, we can clearly see that the 40-42 zone on the RSI has been the most circuital area for the lower side of the market.

by looking at the 2015 bottom, we have the following.

a major drop to around 28 level on the weekly RSI,  3 breakout failures, a break out , a retest and a bull run.

so what do we have in common so far ?

a major drop to around 28 on , 1st attempt to break above is about to happen - this leads to a short term market analysis ;

For this mini rally we having, many traders are calling for a test for the 6k area, but why do i doubt that? along side with many other inductions, breaking the 42 RSI on the weekly is something MAJOR , i don't see it happening this time, we are already at 39.5 , i don't see much room for price to move up , a few hundreds is probably it ,if ever.

Back to the long term view, now assuming the theory remain valid and we drop from the 40-42 level, we should head back to 3.3 to 3.4k where the 50SMA on the monthly and the 200SMA on the weekly sit, we then need to test the 40-42 level again maybe 2 times, once we break it, we going to test it again, fail to break below and the bull run begins.

this puts us some where around July, tho timing is not important, it's all about breaking that 42 level and then retesting it , that will probably be the best time to go long if you want to watch your portfolio grow every week, but as far as we are below the 42 RSI on the weekly, chances are we going sideways or dipping even more.


This is not financial advice, buy/ sell as you see fit at your own responsibility.

 

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March 16, 2019, 08:23:27 PM
 #2

I am just so happy that I am not the only one who has faith in the market this year and believe that we are definitely going to see a bull run in the price of bitcoin and order relevant cryptocurrency in the next few months to come in 2019.

There are a lot of persons who have already given up on crypto because of the lost they faced in 2017/2018 but I have been advising them this year to forget about that lost and focus on the profit they could actually make when we begin to see a bull run in price this year.
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March 16, 2019, 08:28:19 PM
 #3

and believe that we are definitely going to see a bull run in the price of bitcoin and order relevant cryptocurrency in the next few months to come in 2019.

No matter how good the prognosis looks, the market is not definite and we can only be optimistic but never completely convinced about the outcome.
Checking the price now I can see it's dropped below the $4k mark. I do not follow up the charts as often as before, I prefer to hodl and wait for whenever it reaches myself target profit.

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March 16, 2019, 10:18:55 PM
 #4

and believe that we are definitely going to see a bull run in the price of bitcoin and order relevant cryptocurrency in the next few months to come in 2019.

No matter how good the prognosis looks, the market is not definite and we can only be optimistic but never completely convinced about the outcome.
Checking the price now I can see it's dropped below the $4k mark. I do not follow up the charts as often as before, I prefer to hodl and wait for whenever it reaches myself target profit.
Well said! Bitcoin price had prove out for a thousand times that it doesn't really follow on TA's analysis anytime.It can break out nor follow, no one really knows
and that's why im not relying too much to look actively or do make chartings but well we do have our own ways but it isn't really bad to have some analysis at all
rather than seeing blindly.

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March 16, 2019, 10:34:30 PM
 #5

There are a lot of persons who have already given up on crypto because of the lost they faced in 2017/2018 but I have been advising them this year to forget about that lost and focus on the profit they could actually make when we begin to see a bull run in price this year.

What makes you so confident that a bull run is due this year? More hopium is definitely not what these people need.

I honestly think that it's more likely that 2019 will be quite boring overall, and if we do happen to see an increase of some sort, it won't be anything like a bull run. On top of that, due to clowns such as Tom Lee people have given up on perma bull type of predictions, and that's actually a good thing. It's super deceiving to promise people golden mountains while the market is a pile of rubbish in the short to mid term.


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March 16, 2019, 11:51:17 PM
 #6

From the point of view of technical analysis what you say is valid, what happens is that the conditions in 2014 and 2015 were very different from those now, if we take into account 2018-2019. I agree only that it has been 1 year of the accumulation phase, so it lasted until 2017, so that bitcoin was located in an uptrend.

If we are guided by repetition of the story, we should wait at least until the year 2021, which, would be 4 years of the accumulation phase to enter the uptrend.

But to say that this year we reach an ascending phase, it is not impossible, but in reality it is very difficult, normally the Maker Markets, usually wait a long time in the accumulation phase (according to my analysis in the philosophy of Wyckoff) until El 70 80% of the bitcoins are accumulated, at that time, it would be predicted that the bitcoin price would be ready to start its bullish.


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March 17, 2019, 12:03:52 AM
 #7

From the point of view of technical analysis what you say is valid, what happens is that the conditions in 2014 and 2015 were very different from those now, if we take into account 2018-2019.


indeed things are different now, but this does not invalidate the high possibility of things happening again, things can happen 1 month/ 6 months earlier or later than how they happened in the past, also giving the size of btc market, values can differ 10%/100% , but the overall picture is  most likely going to be the same.

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March 17, 2019, 06:28:24 AM
 #8

There are a lot of persons who have already given up on crypto because of the lost they faced in 2017/2018 but I have been advising them this year to forget about that lost and focus on the profit they could actually make when we begin to see a bull run in price this year.

What makes you so confident that a bull run is due this year? More hopium is definitely not what these people need.

I honestly think that it's more likely that 2019 will be quite boring overall, and if we do happen to see an increase of some sort, it won't be anything like a bull run. On top of that, due to clowns such as Tom Lee people have given up on perma bull type of predictions, and that's actually a good thing. It's super deceiving to promise people golden mountains while the market is a pile of rubbish in the short to mid term.

well the real question is whether you think bitcoin has stopped growing or being adopted.
if yes then you can conclude that there will be no more rises this year and we will continue seeing price going sideways or even drop more.
but if you think it is still growing and the adoption is happening then you can't say there is no rise this year. we have already had the drop which purged the market from that "hopium" dudes and all traces of the bubble and then some. so there is no other option left but to rise after this accumulation phase ended. and this phase can't take much longer.

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March 17, 2019, 10:10:53 AM
 #9

I definitely see what you're pointing to, but with only one past data point, it's tough to get married to anything. I think every bubble/bear market cycle will play out differently.

What I think many analysts aren't accounting for is the time aspect. This market moves so much slower than it used to, slower every day. So I'm hesitant to be glued to indicators regarding long term analysis.

$6K is bit much to ask but I'm bullish for another leg up over the next month or so.

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March 17, 2019, 01:41:20 PM
 #10

I agree to the year 2021 and not this year like OP had to speculate I am pretty sure that the price needs to take a break from al sudden pump and dump it had that is why the correction for the price needs to kick in for a while, I guess there are people here that really want the price to tun to bull run this year but I guess we still need to wait for a sudden breakthrough with the movement and in my opinion it is not the time yet, in the recent bull run we see that the price needs an on break from that sudden spike of price, We just need to have faith, patient and the determination that bitcoin price will keep its cycle repeat for another bull run.

 
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March 17, 2019, 02:10:12 PM
 #11

Think of it like gas, not the ethereum gas we all talk about here but the normal gas we all know, if you put gas into a balloon for example it is going to fill it and that is it, if you put it in a container it will be a bit tighter there since it can't move the way it was, and if you make it even smaller with time than it will explode.

Right now, bitcoin price and the whole market is like gas, it was in a balloon for all 2018 and it moved however it wanted, in 2019 we are at a small container, and each time it tries to move to any direction it gets smaller and smaller, the price used to go between 3400 to 4200, now it goes 3800 to 4100 , lets see how smaller the movements can get before we can have a huge out break. I don't know which side it will be towards but I feel like upwards is a good bet at this point.
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March 17, 2019, 10:37:18 PM
 #12

On this era, it is really hard to be optimistic and find things to make us at least feel well. Let's say the chart is looking good and the price went to $4k mark but what the next days, it fell down again. If you really want to have profits, you can actually hodl and wait for the moment to come. That is the best option we have today since we always keep being optimistic and disappointed. We have to learn from those.

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March 18, 2019, 04:54:21 PM
 #13

Since we did not have any accurate historical data we can only know the position of the trend using 2015 price action.  The relatively straight index indicator is one of the indicators we can used to measure the straight of a trend over time and we can actually used this your analysis to forecasts the position of the market over time.  I agree with this op analysis and what some of us has commented and it seems the bull trend is about to commence and the sideways trend is almost over.
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March 18, 2019, 07:14:33 PM
 #14

I definitely see what you're pointing to, but with only one past data point, it's tough to get married to anything. I think every bubble/bear market cycle will play out differently.

What I think many analysts aren't accounting for is the time aspect. This market moves so much slower than it used to, slower every day. So I'm hesitant to be glued to indicators regarding long term analysis.

$6K is bit much to ask but I'm bullish for another leg up over the next month or so.

Yeah, sorry OP. I doubt you'll find a place with more bullish Bitcoiners than here, but I think even the most optimistic of us aren't seeing any writing on the wall for the horned beast we're waiting for.

And as much as we've been able to see some repeats in Bitcoin's relatively short decade of trading, it's becoming clear that comparisons should also be aligned with volume and frequency. So if we are to follow patterns, we should correspond at least those two as well. I'd argue because there are more users now, volume+frequency should also be in proportion to users/traders.

I'm bullish, but prepared to wait til at least 2020 to find some succour.

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March 19, 2019, 10:49:20 AM
 #15

Quote
so up to this point, the 2014-2015 seems to be playing out quite accurately, or maybe because we have no better reference, this seems to be the only proper way to make these long-term analysis.

I do mostly agree with this.

Even though there are valid concerns that past performances does not always equal what the future holds, I think that a combination of the intrinsic cycles that are present within the bitcoin market, with the halving happening at a regular, periodic time, which increases scarcity of new supply; as well as the psychological factor that people do expect this bear market to somewhat coincide with the past one, essentially forming a self fulfilling prophecy, means that I think in terms of percentage change, and time this bear market should be quite similar to the 2014-15 one.

It's very possible that short term dips are still possible, though I don't think we'll see large scale panic dumps anymore in the short run. As you suggest - a bullish breakout is imminent (I think in the next 2 years at max), even though we may regress to past price floors.

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March 19, 2019, 01:18:26 PM
 #16

Even though there are valid concerns that past performances does not always equal what the future holds,

I used to believe in that up until last year. now what I believe in is basically the same thing but with an addendum! .... unless everyone in the market starts following the same trend!

there was no reason for the bear market to continue like this from the ATH. there was no reason for it to last this long or fall this much but it did following mostly the same trends as 2013 and 2014. and so far in 2019 we are following the 2015 patterns of stability and if we see a rise similar to that year then from now on I would expect the same nonsense to be repeated every 3 or 4 years!

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March 19, 2019, 03:53:30 PM
 #17

Even though there are valid concerns that past performances does not always equal what the future holds,

I used to believe in that up until last year. now what I believe in is basically the same thing but with an addendum! .... unless everyone in the market starts following the same trend!

there was no reason for the bear market to continue like this from the ATH. there was no reason for it to last this long or fall this much but it did following mostly the same trends as 2013 and 2014. and so far in 2019 we are following the 2015 patterns of stability and if we see a rise similar to that year then from now on I would expect the same nonsense to be repeated every 3 or 4 years!

Yeah me too. 2018 made me skeptical about following historical trends since that can prove to be a trap. Even if we're moving quite similar to the 2015 trend, no one knows until when that'll be the case. It can veer away at any time leaving those who follow 2015 trends in losses.

 
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March 21, 2019, 06:39:18 PM
 #18

there was no reason for the bear market to continue like this from the ATH. there was no reason for it to last this long or fall this much but it did following mostly the same trends as 2013 and 2014. and so far in 2019 we are following the 2015 patterns of stability and if we see a rise similar to that year then from now on I would expect the same nonsense to be repeated every 3 or 4 years!

I don't understand why do most people underestimate historical data, when we were ranging at 6k for months, i looked at the charts and it was clear as day that based on the past we have to take a good dive, but i was one of the people who would say " nah , bitcoin is now totally different and it does not have to repeat it's past actions" , luckily enough i dumped it at around 5700> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg48030883#msg48030883

since then i have paying close attention to 2014-2015 , and there are more similarities than differences regardless of how big the market is now compared to the past, we have only a small amount of data so far, but for years to come we will be more certain of what's going to happen, and whether we would always follow the same patterns from the past or reinvent the wheel.

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March 21, 2019, 06:45:10 PM
Last edit: March 21, 2019, 06:57:59 PM by Febo
 #19

Back to the long term view, now assuming the theory remain valid and we drop from the 40-42 level, we should head back to 3.3 to 3.4k where the 50SMA on the monthly and the 200SMA on the weekly sit, we then need to test the 40-42 level again maybe 2 times, once we break it, we going to test it again, fail to break below and the bull run begins.

this puts us some where around July, tho timing is not important, it's all about breaking that 42 level and then retesting it , that will probably be the best time to go long if you want to watch your portfolio grow every week, but as far as we are below the 42 RSI on the weekly, chances are we going sideways or dipping even more.

I see on picture you even dated it 8th July. Sounds funny.  Considering everything we know so far, it should happen end of summer early autumn. But I would not dare set such predictions can be months earlier or latter. But I would not bet on earlier.



Yeah me too. 2018 made me skeptical about following historical trends since that can prove to be a trap.

How did 2018 made you skeptical if it was almost identical as 2014?

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March 21, 2019, 06:57:07 PM
 #20

If Bitcoin has the chance to trigger the bull market its best time is right now, slow movements upward to 4,000$ level is an ideal thing to see as buyers and sellers of BTC have been pushing it upwards without any sudden drops. Another failure to breakout the 4,200$ level would only extend the bear market but I do think the positive outcome happening from that is we the investors could have the last attempts to buy BTC cheap before it takes off to another bull run.

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