Bitcoin Forum

I make crypto fundamental analysis to identify the speculation in crypto. This is the past 6 months of data with the long and short opportunities. The speculation is easy to see in crypto when you know the creation cost.

My website:

https://www.amsinger.org/

I want more people to use my analysis and understand crypto better and better!

Aaron

Let me know if you have any questions!

Edit:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198724.new#new

https://i.imgur.com/RUdPyQP_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Just so you know we already have users who do some speculation and fundamental analysis here for free. We even share to each other here our own analysis so there's no need to pay for someone over the internet. You are free to join them if you have to and you can find them on this board discussing every matters that would matter obviously. :D

I did post it for free. I have yet to see any true fundamental analysis on this page. Please post any links you have :)

There is much faulty “technical analysis”.

Where does your "creation cost" data come from? You realize miners around the world have differing overhead and electricity costs, right? How do we know your data isn't just curve-fitting to make it look useful?

My algo takes the most efficient machine costs ties it with a standard .05kwh price (this includes lease and labor costs as well), and identifies the wholesale cost per coin.

There is an efficiency upgrade that went into effect May 23. So there is no “curve-fitting”

It is how the business side of crypto works.

There is no other way to identify when bitcoin is actually low priced or high priced.

I’ve spent 2 years developing and perfecting this. I want people to benefit from my work. These markets are extremely inefficient, and there is a lot of money to be made by understanding them clearly.

Aaron

Long time no see man. I hope you’ve been well.

So you're assuming every miner in the world has the same rental, labor, and other overhead costs? The same electricity costs? Upgrades to the most efficient ASICs on the same timelines?

That's seems way too oversimplified.


I wasn't referring to that specifically. It's the whole premise. You can (and presumably did) keep tweaking your "creation cost" parameters until it intersected with price before a major reversal. You're making oversimplified assumptions and fudging the data to confirm your theory. I really doubt your system can reproduce those results at the next cycle bottom.

I think there is some truth to your theory in general but there are way too many unknowns to make a reliable trading strategy from it.

This is meant to be a tool for trading. In the same way as earnings reports and P/E ratios are to stocks, this is crypto financials. When stock trading very few pros do not look at earnings and revenue when analyzing a stock.

It’s not everything, but my analysis reviews the fundamental trends of crypto business. Without it there is no way to know the true speculation levels. I don’t want people to buy 13k bitcoin blindly. I want people to feel comfortable buying a creation cost supported bitcoin as it was in February and April.

I made this to help people make the right choices, intelligently.

It is a necessary compliment to any trading strategy ;)

Aaron

There is no need to over complicate crypto or trading. Sometimes things are much more simple than they appear ;)

I have posted a link to my most recent complete crypto analysis here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198724.msg52985166#msg52985166

Please check it out. It is my offering to bitcointalk. This forum is amazing, and it does a lot of good.

I want everyone to benefit from my work.

Aaron

I strongly doubt when you say


Firstly you are making your analysis paid, so it’s not everyone, but only “the ones who pays”. That’s legitimate, but different.
Secondly, even assuming you found the magical recipe for successful trading, then trading is not a zero sum game. When I find something that really works, I don’t want to share my statistical hedge over the market with anyone. Sharing your secret means less profit.

[quote author=fillippone link=topic=5199245.msg53004242#msg53004242 date=1573070351

Firstly you are making your analysis paid, so it’s not everyone, but only “the ones who pays”. That’s legitimate, but different.
Secondly, even assuming you found the magical recipe for successful trading, then trading is not a zero sum game. When I find something that really works, I don’t want to share my statistical hedge over the market with anyone. Sharing your secret means less profit.


[/quote]

If I owned a hedge fund that would be correct, but I am a human being man... I’m not a selfish person. It’s not magical. It is simply crypto financials.

A professional decides what analysis to take into account. I don’t understand your anger or position.

you missed the train, right? but your prices are too high, IMHO.  ::)

EDIT: maybe you will consider my advise. learn about Bitcoin. spend time here with posting useful stuff or help Newbies to answer their questions. and after some time try to join a signature campaign and earn some sats over time. you seem very young to me and therefore i guess time will work in favor for you with Bitcoin.

Ah!
No anger at all.
Don’t worry, I am not casting judgements, and if I were doing that, you could legimately ignore those.
But if you are selling services you are doing for profit, not for the love of the forum.
No problem with profit.
A little problems with hypocrisy.

I think it's because you use the same narrative of many people who say they want to help others, but what they want is money.
If you are not selfish, why not allow a free trial of your service.

Lol i spent all my crypto profits for 2 years developing these analytics lol I was screaming at my neighbors during February to buy btc.

I know my prices are a bit high, but it is a professional service and subscribers will need to know that only people that pay will get the continual view of them.

I am the proverbial broke artist now, but if I had anything I would be buying litecoin by the buckets ;) dca in of course

you are a liar on cocaine. get down to earth, homie.  ;D

Businesses must make profit, and I’m sick of eating rice lol

You can catch up to my current analysis for free here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198724.msg52985166#msg52985166

I put it up for free because I do love this forum. I also put up a lot of topics about how you shouldn’t buy bitcoin at 13k in late June also.

I don’t want people to get screwed, but I have to protect the interests of my clients as well. Life is balance.

Aaron

You can see my analysis for free here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198724.msg52985166#msg52985166

Plus there is a discount for bitcointalk peeps.

Happy to help,

Aaron

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5174101

this is your second attempt to sell something to the people?

next time you try to sell your grandma too?  ;D

LOL, you try to collect email addresses and sell them later to advertisers.  ;)

I don’t understand your rage, but thank you for your opinion. We all have bad days ;)

many consider the fall of the price of bitcoin to be just bad news whereas if you look at the graph you provide the fall of the price of bitcoin can be a very good opportunity to be able to buy bitcoin at cheap prices, many investors will take advantage of the moment but for new traders will definitely consider that it was a bad day because of the fall in the price of bitcoin.

Very true, when the support is there smart money buys. The miners have invested billions into bitcoin to secure the creation cost price. They will buy any loose bitcoin that is close to their cost.

The opposite is true when it is far from support ;)

Sometimes price corrections are real. Sometimes they are manipulation. The only way to know is with these fundamentals.

Aaron

I'm happy someone is willing to share their analysis in here. But as so you know, there are tons of people like you that doing it for free in here. Just saying tho.
I'm not saying your way of doing it is wrong. And your analysis might be better than the others, who knows, right?

The analysis seems too good. There were many missed opportunities missed in the past but still there is time for general public to invest in Bitcoin as the time of block reward halving is pretty near and when it comes then definitely there will be a price surge as expected by most people here.

Please post links to the tons of people posting financial analysis here. I would like to read them.

collecting email addresses --> https://www.amsinger.org/information-request

you know it's not legal in some parts of the world? do your homework, boy.

I canceled that service dude. It’s not linked on my website anymore. I don’t understand your rage. Who hurt you?

I’m touched your biggest gripe against my analysis is that  I put up a free crypto class lol

Find my analysis here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198724.new#new

Aaron

Price surges cannot sustain if there's no numerous adoption, same with what happened later in the midst of end days of October. Many speculations came out here in different threads, but it didn't confirm the reality of what the situations are. The market didn't perform commendably after certain spikes had bounced, because after $10K surge it immediately crashes down to $9000 level and now fearing to touch back at last hit.

I wouldn't mind the collecting email address parts if I was a customer, if I was happy with the product then they could have my mail address, we are in 2019 now and everyone should know that they should have a proper personal email with a good reputable name and one that is really just for these kinds of stuff. I have been using two different emails for 4-5 years now for this purpose only.

However, the analysis is way too late which is why I wouldn't join on the subs list, looking back on the last 6 months and talking about missed opportunities makes no sense to me, well I could have bought bitcoin 10 years ago and could have been super rich now (probably would cripple the market instead of getting rich) but that is not an analysis if you ask me, so when there is a new one that is for the future and if it turns out to be true couple times in a row then I would join.

Only six months? Even 2018, the year people all thought was the shittiest crypto winter ever, was the best year ever for anyone who missed the train ride in 2017 aka guys like me.

I mean, I earned since 2016, but as fate would have it, less than a year later, Bitcoin hit its old ATH and never looked back from $1k. How was a guy supposed to enter the 1 million club after $1k? Never mind 10k or 20k!

Still, counting my blessings, I may never approach 21k BTC but if I can even count 1 BTC and then keep collecting, I'm one happy bastard.

There are a lot of people who share their TAs, but it can't be stated as financial analysis or financial advice, everyone is free to make the call to buy or sell at any time.
Here the list:
Godmode Technical Analysis (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.380) by dmwardjr (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=379920)
 Yet another analyst (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.0) by exstasie (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=154539)
I quit my job to do full-time crypto-trading. Made 12 BTC profit last month (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5146383.860) by Mark_R (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2608085)
If Bitcoin Repeats History? 5 Part TA Series On Descending Triangle Breakdowns (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188537.msg52983216#msg52983216) by dragonvslinux (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1170966)
20K by March, A positive Look at the market. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5191555.0) by mikeywith (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2033515)
2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52880531#msg52880531) by xxxx123abcxxxx (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1610969)

I know market has been as it was expected because of there has been quick dump after every pump like how it was dropped from from 13k as everyone though it will boom again but it failed, even the value of 10k didn't last but this does not mean that the market will always be bearish. I am sure there will be some good days ahead looking at the trend and global events.

That's an interesting observation but can you please tell the basis of your analysis? I mean what parameters have been taken while calculating the electricity cost and of which country are we talking about because as far as I know costs vary a lot. Moreover, what is the psychology behind this makes you think that this strategy works? Because it has just happened once. One time is not a great track record we can trust. There must be some psychology which you are so sure about. Moreover, what are the parameters taken in creation cost? I think just random charts won't work.

Ehhh, you posted a chart and you are claiming what you are doing is Fundamental Analysis? Are you trolling or something? Even if those are electricity costs or "creation cost" it doesn't point out to a single fundamental indicator in fact we can even consider this as a technical indicator like volume or inflow of money in the market since it's the same thing there are no financial performance involve or anything that points out that this analyzed by finding out what the fair value of BTC is. You are simply doing technical analysis and you just don't know it. Which only means subscribing in your paid analysis will just be a waste of money.

I posted my complete analysis here for free:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198724.0

It’s in the first message.

Hope you feel better man. No need to be gruff ;)

I think I have an idea that could help you promote your service and would certainly calm many users.
This is a paid service, so you can offer free vouchers (2 for example) for trusted users with high rank, with reservation that after checking they write an honest review about it.

That is an interesting idea. I could probably work something up for that tomorrow.

Aaron

Be sure to check out the other thread, it has a lot of discussion and I just posted my October 21 analysis.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198724.new#new

Aaron

It's easy to chart past performance and say there were missed opportunities.  When market is bad you could've shorted it and when it's going good you should've longed it.  Since markets have been alive this holds true.  I dont know what you are getting at really...

I’ve posted my previous analyses to show the efficacy of this over time. It was saying these things accurately as they were happening. It identifies when it is high (sell) and when it is low (buy).

Crypto follows a pattern, this pattern is difficult to see because the creation cost changes and is variable, but it follows a pattern around its creation cost.

Check out the historicals for btc, Bch, and eth in the pdf.

Aaron

I also have the same idea. I am just looking at its graphical history. What else is there? Are you sharing or you just want us to sign up at your offer first before we could look at the real deal?
But to sum it up, this could be done by any technical traders here.



Pattern? I doubt that. If that is so then I wont see a lot of names still popping out here.
It is volatile. Just because you have seen the history of bitcoin doesnt mean you will be accurate enough for the next wave.

I like to further see this one. I am just wondering that what might be the differences of what I can see here that is worth of my payment than the random persons here offering here in forum for free. Besides as the many person stated here can you please tell what are the processes or formulas of your analysis. Is it even more reliable than the others or is the same? 'Cause we are talking about the amount we will be paying here.

You answered your own question. Why would you trust RANDOM people on here. You would have better luck asking a neighbor kid to draw a line on a bitcoin chart than any of the “technical analysts” on here.

What i make is fundamental analysis. That is completely different than these line drawers.

If you wish to not utilize my analysis, I wish you luck. You’re gonna need it.

https://www.amsinger.org/

Aaron

Can you explain the fundamental trading strategy you expect clients to employ? BTC price is virtually always above this "creation cost" so where are examples of actual long entries and short entries? Stop losses? Without this, no one can verify profitability.

Why was April 2019 a long opportunity based on your system? I remember you were screaming to short back in May.

This is what the chart from the OP tells me: "I circled the bottom. That's a long opportunity. Then I circled the top. That's a short opportunity. Then I circled the bottom again. That's a long opportunity."

This is pure hindsight analysis.

Where did I say to short in May? Do you have any proof?

May 2 was the last day to buy. I said $13,000 was unsustainable. You remember that. I also said $10k was a ridiculous price. You also remember that.

It’s not hindsight. It is sight.

You can find my fundamental analysis here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198724.0

Hope you do the smart thing, and if you don’t I wish you luck! You will need it.

Aaron

I love that I have stalkers on here lol

You know that when it gets to decision to be an holder, it is certain that we will be missing lots of opportunities and I think what is trying to get at is that during the past six month, the value of bitcoin has fluctuated several times, and there has been several dips and several pump, which you can now imagine how much a trader would have made if they had really traded during that time.

I think that within that six month, bitcoin has gone low and high between $7000 and $9000 several times, which means if one had trade on each, there should have been profit of $2000, every time that there's a trade, so anyone that did not take advantage of it that time like the op must have missed the opportunity which i think cannot be taken back again, except we start watching from now.

That opportunity turned out to be an opportunity in hindsight.... try to convince me of new opportunities that will emerge as we move forward with the price action, which I'm sure you won't be able to do so confidently.

I have seen so many people try to pass off certain price movements as money making opportunities in hindsight, but I have seen very few who actually predicted price action, put money at stake, and were right.

People are better off simply dollar cost averaging now the price is going down, all to have a decent position ready for the next bull run.... don't be that sucker who always misses out on bull runs, accumulate now.

This thread, for example: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5146202


On May 22nd when you posted that, price was trading between $7,500 and $8,000. After that, the market never went below the $7,400s and a few weeks later we hit $14K.

That's what I'm talking about. It's easy to point at these charts in hindsight and say "it was so obvious!" In real time, it's not so simple. I don't see a consistently good basis for entries and exits here.

I said take profit not short. You really are not the best at understanding trading. Lol

You are not the smartest of my fan boys.

Aaron

but your are the smartest of my enemies.  ;D ;D

There is no greater compliment in life than to have an enemy.

Friends have no need to respect you, but enemies (more than anyone else in the world) respect you.

Love and hate are two sides of the same coin.

Aaron

P.S. Most people want to be liked, I love to be hated ;) much love

I believe it will be easier if you show your profits and how much capital you started and how much money you currently have. Show us your results so we can see how you are doing with your strategy. I prefer to believe in proof because it gets easier and is credible.

Another point: If you succeed with your strategy, why do you need other people's money?

I don’t take investment. People pay for my analysis.

My history:
1. In late 2012 I bought a $123 btc to make a legal purchase on a legal site.
2. I started investigating what bitcoin was because it was so difficult to buy.
3. Over the next year I made multiple legal purchases with btc and noticed the price fluctuations.
4. After a year I had to get a crap job, so I decided to make light legal sales with btc.
5. Off and on I worked crap jobs climbing the corporate ladder and making legal sales. After dealing with the dilapidated state of corporate America I decided to make real amounts of legal sales and a change.
6. I quit my job and started to make real legal sales when btc was ~$600. I noticed the price increase and that sparked my curiosity more.
7. I quit making legal sales early 2017 because I was drugged with scopolamine in Colombia. My mother asked me to quit and I did.
8. I had ~$30k in btc when btc was ~$1000.
9. I put half in cloud contracts with Viabtc (Chinese) so I could be paid every day and I put most of the remainder into eth @$78
10. Over the next couple months eth skyrocketed to $300, and I decided to put chunks into ICO’s.
11. Over 2017 my $30k turned into $250k by late 2017. Had I of kept my BTC it would have been $600k. I learned a major lesson there, never invest in ICO’s and keep your btc. Play the other coins to make more BTC.
12. In Jan 2018 Viabtc (Chinese) decided to steal $100k from me by withdrawing my cloud contracts during the peak of the market.
13. Over the beginning of 2018 the ICO’s I was in died and bitcoin was in a bear. I made effective and profitable arbitrage and trading plays, but year long bear is year long bear. I had to pay my rent.
14. In Nov 2018 I had $30k left. Bitcoin decided to take a 50% drop during the month, and I was left with $15k.
15. I came to bitcointalk to figure out why. I would have been happier if bitcoin went to zero, but why did it decide to stop at $3,300. A magnificent poster put up the creation cost idea, and I designed my algorithm for finding creation cost with his idea.
16. I had to keep paying my rent so eventually my portfolio went down to nothing.
17. I began marketing my algorithm, and promoting the true understanding of bitcoin and crypto in a legitimate business.

Had Jihan Wu and Bitmain not decided to play their manipulation games, I would be a midwest craft beer and Spanish wine importer and exporter. That is the business I was building since late 2017. It would have been simple, happy money, but Jihan Wu and his gang wanted to get greedy.

Slow death, thank you for asking this question. I love you man. Up until this point I hadn’t realized my business and the blood, sweat, and tears I have shed for it was a rage play. Now I know. Jihan Wu and Bitmain (Viabtc is a subsidiary of Bitmain) stole so much money from me and MANY others that I find it intolerable. They have the motive, the cash, and the incentive to manipulate bitcoin and all of crypto to steal from people. Bitmain is a multibillion dollar company. I find it disgusting.

You guys up until this point have never heard my black voice.

I’m a nigga from Flint, Michigan. And this little Chinese bitch Jihan Wu is the architect for all of bitcoin’s problem. They STEAL from people. They manipulate markets illegally. And Imma slit that tiny dicked, Steve Jobs wannabe turtleneck wearing, Chinese mothafucka’s throat (business-wise) for the pain he has caused and continues to cause to people. I will Gaddafi that motherfucka.  There are plenty of Asian men with reasonable sized dicks, but that guy has a tiny one.

Satoshi, if you are reading this, inventor to inventor, thank you for your beautiful invention. It has caused way more good than any other financial invention has for over a hundred years. But you do not need to lift a finger. I will deal with this cancer. That little Chinese bitch aint never dealt with a nigga from Flint.

My analysis would have saved me from ALL THESE MISTAKES. My analysis is tight. It is right. It is strong enough to go the distance. I post my stuff on Bitcointalk because I feel a debt to this community, but my battle is not on this site. No offense, but most people on here are cheap, miserly computer nerds who are totally fine donating to Jihan Wu's Lamborghini fund. But I don’t care. I post a lot of stuff for free on here. I will right these wrongs.

I’m motherfuckin’ Batman.

Aaron

1:0 for you.  ;D ;D

Holy shit Aaron, that's a wild ride. Do you have any hair left on your head ? :D Hard to imagine how to lose that much money when being in the perfect position at the start of the most epic bull run till now.

Much crazier shit has happened to me this is just crypto stuff. I don’t much care about money. I didn’t really spend any of it (compared to most people). I just travel around and work on businesses, or inventions, or paintings.

Having more or less money has NO effect on happiness. But you need money to build bigger and bigger things ;) I want to build businesses, so I must develop good business plans that work.

My hair is glorious lol

Crypto trading is about getting IN at the right time and OUT at the right time. That requires measuring risk.  I made this analysis to find out what the risk is at any time.

Aaron

I didn’t lose it lol, it was stolen.

I will be upgrading the efficiencies of all the creation costs next Monday.

Lowered prices. Time to scale.