Title: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! NOT HERE NOT HERE Post by: El duderino_ on December 29, 2019, 03:45:33 PM This game will open somewhere in January at a random time and date, I only wanna share a heads up now that this game will be a bit different.
One rule I already gonna give and that is that when a member gives a price then a space of 25$ up and 25$ down are not available anymore for other members guesses, so everyone has a range of 51$ at least (so if no one is close then it still is the closest one) Small example when I predict 7777 then that price guess covers: 7752-7802 and only 7803 and more are available or 7751 and lower are available. A second rule I do wanna apply is that an account needs at least 25 merits, as these games are mostly for longer contributing forum members, so if some are short a bit, then still there are at least some days maybe weeks to earn some.... Also there most be some recent activity. I will also have a side question probably .... More news and stuff and rules will be in the OP when the game is open... (It will mostly mean people can't get very boxed in and no one have to wait to put in there price last minute) Open for questions or ideas as well. Title: Re: Speculation GAME involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on December 29, 2019, 03:45:57 PM reserved
Title: Re: Speculation GAME involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: o_e_l_e_o on December 29, 2019, 05:04:33 PM A second rule I do wanna apply is that an account needs at least 25 merits Earned merits?Open for questions or ideas as well. Title: Re: Speculation GAME involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on December 29, 2019, 05:27:00 PM A second rule I do wanna apply is that an account needs at least 25 merits Earned merits?Open for questions or ideas as well. That’s always a difficult one ..... but I think from now I have to say yes earned ones as the merit system is a forum thing we all have to live and work with so people on the forum that respect the place will earn some merits and contribute to the place If this is to much it’s still open for discussion, I just trying to improve the games.... price is relatively big so I just only want it would be won under best circumstances. Title: Re: Speculation GAME involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: figmentofmyass on December 29, 2019, 06:15:46 PM micgoossens, you should change the thread title IMO. last time you put "game" in the title, moderators moved it to the games and rounds board---and it subsequently died. i hate the moderators on this forum.....
+1 on the "earned merits" bit. too many bought/sold accounts around here. Title: Re: Speculation GAME involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: TheBeardedBaby on December 29, 2019, 06:32:51 PM Its time for me to reserve a spot. I always miss the fun with a few days, but not this time. I'll keep an eye for the opening :)
Happy New Year :) Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: rdluffy on December 29, 2019, 07:15:43 PM Oh, great again
I made my prediction to the end of the year, but I already know that is impossible to win with my price range Now I'll try to predict better and who knows win this with the halving ;D Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: dragonvslinux on December 29, 2019, 10:16:28 PM One rule I already gonna give and that is that when a member gives a price then a space of 25$ up and 25$ down are not available anymore for other members guesses, so everyone has a range of 51$ at least (so if no one is close then it still is the closest one) Small example when I predict 7777 then that price guess covers: 7752-7802 and only 7803 and more are available or 7751 and lower are available. Nice idea, though surely it would be more fair not to have a $51 range between guesses. For example, if most people wanted to bet that the price would be (for example) $10K, then wouldn't it make more sense to allow everyone to squeeze their bids into this, whether they be only dollars apart, so everyone still has a fair chance? Otherwise the game risks having the "popular prices" already taken, and members having to guess less favorable prices (to their predictions). Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price. Even if 100 members tick the same box that is the winning price, to me this makes the game a lot fairer. I have one suggestion I have always been thinking about the games. Didn't know you were planning to do more... but if you do insist of spending the little BTC you got left after your boating accident... :P The thing is that being first in chosing a date is somewhat "penalized" in that you can be boxed and can't do anything against. I would predetermine the boxes in such a way that if several people decide to chose the same "box" (ie: from 7200 to 7400) they all share (divide) the prize. That way more probable ranges will have more people to share the price, yes, but they won't wait till later to see if their initial choosing is too "crowded" and chose a better one. I think that will make for a more "honest" chosing with no consideration what other people have chosen. And results would be much more reliable about what people really think could be the right choice even if they have to "share" the prize. Not sure if I have explained it well.... I could do better otherwise... some other time. Too much drink tonight. Cheers! Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on December 29, 2019, 11:48:50 PM Gonna enter a HODLsleep right now, and come back on it tomorrow....
Hope some more share there thought which is the better approach ...? Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: 1miau on December 29, 2019, 11:49:03 PM I like your new rule of blocked 51$-ranges very much. For the last giveaways, it was indeed a problem that many people made "crowded" predictions. :D
A range of 51$ is also very fair, assuming the range of BTC until 2020 halving is most likely from 5,000$ to 15,000$ we have 10,000$ for different ranges = 200 spots. In reality it'll be lower because e.g. user A has a prediction of 10,000$ (Range between 9,975$ - 10,025$) and user B predicted 10,075$ (Range between 10,050$ - 10,100$) so only 25$ is left between 10,026$ and 10,049$ where nobody can enroll a 51$ range: Better visualized:
Or isn't this red range blocked? Looking forward to a nice giveaway (and hopefully a rising Bitcoin price). :D Hope some more share there thought which is the better approach ...? I like your decision so far. 100% support. ;)The other suggestion from bitserve quoted by dragonvslinux above is also a nice consideration. Solo Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: STT on December 29, 2019, 11:59:50 PM Quote In reality it'll be lower It might need to be done in $50 increments to allow the best spacing yea Hate is a strong word, hesitate to aquience on a point of order :P I agree with the point about title though, its more open speculation since all factors are real. The range rule is probably good for encouraging people to guess earlier rather then later in order to stake a claim to that range of feasible prices. I dont think its too unfair as the price is never going to be precise, if my guess were 10k then I cant say I really know if it will be anywhere from 9700 to 10300. So thats about 13 people who can go near to 10k. Maybe others really are more precise then that, but if we're talking over months I think its ok as trajectory is only going to be within an area. I guessed 6613 last go and here we are near to year end at over 800 dollars away but I dont consider myself horribly wrong, I was in the rough area. Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: pooya87 on December 30, 2019, 05:04:00 AM In reality it'll be lower because e.g. user A has a prediction of 10,000$ (Range between 9,975$ - 10,025$) and user B predicted 10,075$ (Range between 10,050$ - 10,100$) so only 25$ is left between 10,026$ and 10,049$ where nobody can enroll a 51$ range: that's the first thing that came to my mind too but i suppose it should not matter that much since $50 isn't that big compared to the price numeric value specially if due to halving price shoots up like previous two times. the predictions could be in range of $130,700-$130,725 and that small space wouldn't matter :P Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: bitcoinPsycho on December 30, 2019, 09:53:28 AM Your a legend Mic love your games;)
Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on December 30, 2019, 10:12:59 AM Your a legend Mic love your games;) I did became legendary indeed a few weeks-moths ago Thanks for being a part of that !!! I like your new rule of blocked 51$-ranges very much. For the last giveaways, it was indeed a problem that many people made "crowded" predictions. :D A range of 51$ is also very fair, assuming the range of BTC until 2020 halving is most likely from 5,000$ to 15,000$ we have 10,000$ for different ranges = 200 spots. In reality it'll be lower because e.g. user A has a prediction of 10,000$ (Range between 9,975$ - 10,025$) and user B predicted 10,075$ (Range between 10,050$ - 10,100$) so only 25$ is left between 10,026$ and 10,049$ where nobody can enroll a 51$ range: Better visualized:
Or isn't this red range blocked? Looking forward to a nice giveaway (and hopefully a rising Bitcoin price). :D Hope some more share there thought which is the better approach ...? I like your decision so far. 100% support. ;)The other suggestion from bitserve quoted by dragonvslinux above is also a nice consideration. Solo I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post) In reality it'll be lower because e.g. user A has a prediction of 10,000$ (Range between 9,975$ - 10,025$) and user B predicted 10,075$ (Range between 10,050$ - 10,100$) so only 25$ is left between 10,026$ and 10,049$ where nobody can enroll a 51$ range: that's the first thing that came to my mind too but i suppose it should not matter that much since $50 isn't that big compared to the price numeric value specially if due to halving price shoots up like previous two times. the predictions could be in range of $130,700-$130,725 and that small space wouldn't matter :P Let us hope 2020 brings those kinds of numeric values :) Also remember the date of the game isn't set yet, it will have to do something with the halving ... SO, on the one side I have; *price guess with UP and DOWN ranges for your guess like 7550 would mean all the prices from 7525-7575 are the ones for that guess not to be harmed by any other member *price guess in "tick box" what would mean from zero to ..... all prices are in boxes of 200 (not sure if that would be the chosen box open for discussion) but just to explain the system... like 0-200,201-400,401-600,601-800............. are boxes and everyone can go in every box, at the end the winning box will divide the price thats awarded for the game I will open a poll for this?? O do I got it wrong? Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: o_e_l_e_o on December 30, 2019, 10:31:48 AM I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post) The other option would be to make set ranges of $50, such as 9501-9550, 9551-9600, 9601-9650, and so on, and let everyone pick a single range (and only have one person per range). If a range or set of ranges goes unpicked, then the users on each side simply absorb the excess.Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price. This doesn't solve the problem you pose, though. Multiple members could pick the 9976-1025 range, and if the price is 1026, then they will all lose. I much prefer a "winner takes all" style rather than letting multiple people pick the same price.Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on December 30, 2019, 10:44:44 AM I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post) The other option would be to make set ranges of $50, such as 9501-9550, 9551-9600, 9601-9650, and so on, and let everyone pick a single range (and only have one person per range). If a range or set of ranges goes unpicked, then the users on each side simply absorb the excess.Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price. This doesn't solve the problem you pose, though. Multiple members could pick the 9976-1025 range, and if the price is 1026, then they will all lose. I much prefer a "winner takes all" style rather than letting multiple people pick the same price.https://i.imgur.com/nRvRSZY.gif A bit of a mix of them both ... I like the idea, lets make a poll BUT .... dragonvslinux just saying that if most people would think around 8750 for example then only a few can really guess close to there target... Of-course in a game like this, you can't serve everyone equally, there is always a difference in how others think... Only the set boxes of 50... will demand everyone to closely look read and pick there spot, probably its gonna get messy ::) On the other hand its much better to don't have any gaps of 10-20... $, though for some its nice to have these gaps the get some larger ranges etc lol Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: Last of the V8s on December 30, 2019, 11:00:05 AM I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post) The other option would be to make set ranges of $50, such as 9501-9550, 9551-9600, 9601-9650, and so on, and let everyone pick a single range (and only have one person per range). If a range or set of ranges goes unpicked, then the users on each side simply absorb the excess.Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price. This doesn't solve the problem you pose, though. Multiple members could pick the 9976-1025 range, and if the price is 1026, then they will all lose. I much prefer a "winner takes all" style rather than letting multiple people pick the same price.Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: o_e_l_e_o on December 30, 2019, 11:04:23 AM This is the way. I have spoken.Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand Yeah, it's good.Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on December 30, 2019, 11:07:18 AM Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: Last of the V8s on December 30, 2019, 11:13:33 AM Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand People should be able to say, 'I'll take the 751-800 slot because my afaiu Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on December 30, 2019, 11:14:25 AM Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand Damn Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: TheBeardedBaby on December 30, 2019, 12:13:35 PM One pick one winner. Imagine everyone picks only one range, then everyone wins and you have to share 100-200 satoshi in between. Of course it won't happen but the chance to stick with someone else's suggestion to win is quite higher. Fewer chosen ranges, higher chance to win. just saying...
Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: LFC_Bitcoin on December 30, 2019, 01:48:33 PM It must be one winner, surely & I like the $50 increments suggested by oeleo. I already know what price I’m going to pick but keeping it quiet until the game officially opens.
+8 Merit to mic - so generous to the community. Top poster & top guy. Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on December 30, 2019, 02:25:26 PM It must be one winner, surely & I like the $50 increments suggested by oeleo. I already know what price I’m going to pick but keeping it quiet until the game officially opens. +8 Merit to mic - so generous to the community. Top poster & top guy. Yeah, don’t needed really it’s specially to celebrate a new year with an amazing event in the community “the halving” it will have everyone on the edge of there seats I guess and I hope I can make a winner happy !!! Though THX anyway, but I always now you got my back :D Damn still only 9 voting people Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: Dabs on December 30, 2019, 05:02:00 PM Picking from a set range would fit most people. You can define the range starting from say, 1001-1050, 1051-1100, 1101-1150 ...
Not sure if 50 is good, might be easier to do 100, so it becomes 1001-1100, .... or 1000-1099, 1100-1199, 1200-1299 You just have to set the rules what the range is, and the first one who takes a particular range gets it. Too bad for others, they can either pick something else, or pick the same one (but they don't win if that's the result.) Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: bitserve on December 30, 2019, 06:57:14 PM The option to share the slots (that I suggested while in a mild intoxicated state mind you :P) could be an interesting experiment and also it would depend if you Mic would like to have multiple winners sharing the price instead of "one winner takes it all" but... It doesn't fix the "better to wait for a late pick" strategy problem I was trying to address.
That's why I posted another (again poorly worded) post the next day: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.380 If the slots are shareable it will still be better strategy to wait before making your pick, because you will be always able to chose ANY slot. On the other hand, if there are preselected slots available in a first-come-first-served way earlier picks will be incentivised, as the "best slots" (which is very subjective and many times proved otherwise in the end) will be gone for late picks. Also while the $25 above and under a pick seems to be fair, it allows for an strategy of: - Be quick in decide your pick, but don't post it yet. - Wait for someone make a pick near your target zone. - Now add $24 above or $24 under that pick and post that as your pick. That way you have locked additional "winning range" for your pick (and for the one you used to "pivot") and it is still in your "target zone". And you have "unfairly" reduced available space for next picks. Conclusion: I would preset the slots in the way oeleo has said. The wording for the rules would be easy: Your picks must end either in 01 or 50. For a pick ending in 01, ie 7801, the winning range would be 7776 to 7825. For the pick 7851, the winning range would be 7826 to 7875. Of course the winning range could be even wider if there are no near picks around, but that is the minimum "unboxeable" range. So now it is best strategy to go for earlier picks than wait later (unless you are going for a very unpopular/crazy price range, as some do). Simple, easier and non exploitable. Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: Dabs on December 30, 2019, 07:29:07 PM The "I have spoken" dude didn't quite ... oh wait.. spoiler alert ... anyway, you know what I mean if you've seen it.
And then there were those mercenaries making fun of "this is his way.." .. but well, ... still awesome. Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: o_e_l_e_o on December 30, 2019, 07:31:14 PM So now it is best strategy to go for earlier picks than wait later (unless you are going for a very unpopular/crazy price range, as some do). Who's to say what's a crazy range. I think as mic's previous competitions have shown us, the majority of us seem to be consistently overly bullish. Unless you really believe in the accuracy of your TA, the best tactic might be to wait until a few minutes before closing time and pick a price which will gives you the largest gaps between the next closest predictions to maximize your range. Conversely, waiting until the end you may well only be left truly outlandish predictions. Who knows?Mic's last competition had 181 entries, so 50 dollar brackets would give a minimum 9k price spread, which I think is reasonable. 100 dollar brackets would need a 18k spread. Given that some brackets will go unclaimed, and we are assuming this competition will be bigger than the last, I think 50 dollar brackets seems correct. Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: Heisenberg_Hunter on December 30, 2019, 08:14:25 PM I like the o_e_l_e_o 's suggestion in spreading out the $50 boxes like ranges and partially like bitserve's post as well. The participants picks up the ranges and it would be quite simple since majority of the participants never choose a single price range with $50 difference actually.
Regarding the second rule, 25-50 earned merits should be implemented and along with that a new rule like Bounty I do urge on the implementation of this rule because, during the early days of merit system many of these spammers have traded merits with others and have easily gained those 25 merits which would certainly become an easier way for them to join this game. Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on December 30, 2019, 08:15:22 PM @o_e_l_e_o, will merit your posts later, they where very helpful and well liked as the poll is showing...
I don't know but this kind of game exclude the strategy of waiting and taking as much as possible spots, as some will not be in the position with one right above and right below, what could be annoying. Thx for all those with input and help to try create a better game. Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on December 30, 2019, 08:21:01 PM I like the o_e_l_e_o 's suggestion in spreading out the $50 boxes like ranges and partially like bitserve's post as well. The participants picks up the ranges and it would be quite simple since majority of the participants never choose a single price range with $50 difference actually. Regarding the second rule, 25-50 earned merits should be implemented and along with that a new rule like Bounty I do urge on the implementation of this rule because, during the early days of merit system many of these spammers have traded merits with others and have easily gained those 25 merits which would certainly become an easier way for them to join this game. Yes sir I would like to now put in 25 earned merit as a reasonable nr I think, for the time the merit system is here, most could achieve 25, as the game is mostly meant for longer contributing members as well, so new people could be encouraged to write well and try to earn merit to be on a next game ... For second i'm not the guy with the knowledge who are the real scammers are Alt's of others, if someone with appropriate knowledge about this matter and would help out then I would certainly wanna implement this, but me alone isn't the right guy to decide such things..... Who will who could ?? Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: Last of the V8s on December 30, 2019, 08:31:29 PM I think don't worry about scammers and their alts, mic. They haven't seemed to try to join twice, as it were, so far in your previous competitions. You would have heard all about it! Everyone would tell you instantly 'oh x is likely an alt of y scammer, he's trying to join twice'.
Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: LFC_Bitcoin on December 30, 2019, 08:32:04 PM Maybe we could have one winner takes all for the bitcoin prize but 2nd & 3rd closest gets some Merit or something.
I’d be happy to help & send 20 or something into a pot at the end :) Only a suggestion, if it’s a dumb idea somebody tell me to STFU :D 1st prize - 0.x amount of BTC 2nd prize - 50 Merit 3rd prize - 25 Merit Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: o_e_l_e_o on December 30, 2019, 08:34:58 PM The easiest way to do this is probably just to state a minimum of x earned merits in the last y months, so 25 merits earned in the last 6 months, for example. (I just pulled those numbers out of thin air. I appreciate that my view on earning merits is very different to the "average" forum user, so I don't know what a reasonable amount of merit per month is.) And only count merit earned up until the announcement of the competition, so spammers can't quickly trade merit between accounts and then enter. Any other method would be very resource intensive as someone would have to be manually checking everyone's posting history, as well as pretty subjective as to who is classed as a "spammer" and who isn't.
Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on December 30, 2019, 09:01:43 PM I think don't worry about scammers and their alts, mic. They haven't seemed to try to join twice, as it were, so far in your previous competitions. You would have heard all about it! Everyone would tell you instantly 'oh x is likely an alt of y scammer, he's trying to join twice'. Yeah maybe good people tell me, nutildah ones told me a guy entering twice... so he's a good one to take a look for such things :) Probably you as well :P Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: bitserve on December 30, 2019, 10:28:16 PM I would suggest that easiest for you is just to use the list of the most merited users and just decide where do you want to put the cut, ie: 300, 500, 1000, 2000 etc most merited users as eligible to participate. Fix it at the time of opening the game and everyone just need to lookup if their name is on the list.
For alts and all that stuff I am sure there will be people in the know that will voice it when/if that happens. Other alternatives would probably put an additional and unnecessary work on you. Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: Questat on January 01, 2020, 10:32:07 PM Good thing that 25 earned merits are not from the last 120 says, otherwise, I would not qualify for this competition.
I'll bookmarked this one so I would be aware when it starts, I think I got 40 merits as of now. so everyone has a range of 51$ at least I liked the new rule. Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on January 01, 2020, 10:43:00 PM ^
When the game opens it will follow the o_e_l_e_o idea as the poll made clear most thought this was the best way to go :) first is first and the price that will be picked has to be a nr for example like it starts from 0 and counts up 0-50 51-100 101-150 151-200 .... 7001-7050 7051-7100 7101-7150 7151-7200 etc So a member will be allowed to chose a price with his own 50$ range, a taken box is a reserved space not to be taken again. I will also ask when the game opens and someone takes a guess, to write it as shown in this post... Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: asus09 on January 02, 2020, 12:43:29 AM I want to qualify with your competition but I don't know what do you want whit your game, prediction about your merit earn or talking prediction of halving time for bitcoin, could you give me clearly information detail because I look very excited with your merit words because I want to earn merit based on my quality post.
Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: Questat on January 02, 2020, 01:03:09 PM I want to qualify with your competition but I don't know what do you want whit your game, prediction about your merit earn or talking prediction of halving time for bitcoin, could you give me clearly information detail because I look very excited with your merit words because I want to earn merit based on my quality post. Read the OP again and translate it if you can't fully understands it, this is a prediction game which you are required to have at least earned 25 merits to qualified, but it's yet to be finalized and you still have plenty of days to earn that required merits before the game formally starts. according to https://bpip.org/profile.aspx?p=asus09. it seems like you haven't earn a single merit yet. Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: DeathAngel on January 02, 2020, 02:32:20 PM Read the OP again and translate it if you can't fully understands it, this is a prediction game which you are required to have at least earned 25 merits to qualified, but it's yet to be finalized and you still have plenty of days to earn that required merits before the game formally starts. according to https://bpip.org/profile.aspx?p=asus09. it seems like you haven't earn a single merit yet. https://i.ibb.co/0tW7M3K/3-BDDD0-C8-88-A1-427-C-987-B-5-F1-DCB36-DF3-E.jpg Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: LoyceV on January 02, 2020, 04:00:45 PM Will this speculation be for the exact moment of the halving, or a couple of months later? I can be much more bullish if it's 4 months after the halving :D
Small example when I predict 7777 then that price guess covers: 7752-7802 and only 7803 and more are available or 7751 and lower are available. Small correction: If someone predicts 7803, the 7777-prediction doesn't cover 7752-7802, but only 7752-7790, and 7790-7828 is "covered" bij prediction 7803. In this case, 7790 overlaps both predictions.BUT .... dragonvslinux just saying that if most people would think around 8750 for example then only a few can really guess close to there target... An alternative, and this is a bit more complicated but also a good exercise in using Bitcoin's possibilities, would be to ask everyone to hide their prediction until the entries are closed.So: 1. make up a number ($100,000). 2. sign a message from a Bitcoin address with your prediction and some random text ("$100,000 6632099102860212817669648358652770915593"). 3. post only the signature, don't edit this post anymore. Keep your prediction secret and don't forget your random text! 4. wait for all other participants to do the same, and wait for micgoossens to announce new entries are no longer allowed 5. post the bitcoin address and signed message, this reveals your prediction. 6. now we wait :) Only the set boxes of 50... will demand everyone to closely look read and pick there spot, probably its gonna get messy ::) That's too bearish :PIt makes sense for very low predictions, but a $100,000 prediction could still be boxed in between $99,975 and $100,025, which gives it only 0.05% range. Meanwhile, a bear who predicts $500, covers everything from $475 to $525, which gives him a 10% range. If you're going with "boxes", can each box be a percentage of the prediction (say 1%)? So: 1000 covers 995-1005 10,000 covers 9,950-10,050 100,000 covers 99,500-100,500 Damn still only 9 voting people Poll is closed already, I was too late to add my signed message idea.The easiest way to do this is probably just to state a minimum of x earned merits in the last y months, so 25 merits earned in the last 6 months, for example. I could provide a list of qualifying users if this is how it's going to be :)I would suggest that easiest for you is just to use the list of the most merited users and just decide where do you want to put the cut, ie: 300, 500, 1000, 2000 etc most merited users as eligible to participate. Fix it at the time of opening the game and everyone just need to lookup if their name is on the list. As of last Friday, this is the list (http://loyce.club/Merit/all_users_who_earned_Merit_2019-12-27_Fri_09.59h.txt):25 Merit earned since the beginning of It might also be good to add a requirement for how many members sent Merit: a user who received 25 Merit from 1 other user doesn't sound right to me. Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on January 02, 2020, 04:34:37 PM @Loyce, very useful as usually THX skill show of :-*
Yeah, for the game this time the poll is voted BUT I do like your idea though i'm not that skilled etc then you might need to help me out or something.... Then : Only the set boxes of 50... will demand everyone to closely look read and pick there spot, probably its gonna get messy ::) That's too bearish :P It makes sense for very low predictions, but a $100,000 prediction could still be boxed in between $99,975 and $100,025, which gives it only 0.05% range. Meanwhile, a bear who predicts $500, covers everything from $475 to $525, which gives him a 10% range. If you're going with "boxes", can each box be a percentage of the prediction (say 1%)? So: 1000 covers 995-1005 10,000 covers 9,950-10,050 100,000 covers 99,500-100,500 It would be needed to enter a price in following order; ^ When the game opens it will follow the o_e_l_e_o idea as the poll made clear most thought this was the best way to go :) first is first and the price that will be picked has to be a nr for example like it starts from 0 and counts up 0-50 51-100 101-150 151-200 .... 7001-7050 7051-7100 7101-7150 7151-7200 etc So a member will be allowed to chose a price with his own 50$ range, a taken box is a reserved space not to be taken again. I will also ask when the game opens and someone takes a guess, to write it as shown in this post... So when X takes 7151-7200 and the lower under him Y takes 7001-7050 and upper one Z takes 8001-8050, then the death space inbetween is for the closest participant, like 7400 would be for A, 7850 would be Z.... I think with this approach people will just write there price and don't need to be afraid to to be stuck whit like almost zero chance... Will this speculation be for the exact moment of the halving, or a couple of months later? I can be much more bullish if it's 4 months after the halving :D That will be the main thing the when date, probably the game will open soon-ish Just want everybody to maybe already have read the OP so they already have some kind of idea what is gonna happen, probably many will not take boxes and write some non OK prices but yeah thats like every single time that some don't take the time the effort of reading the OP ::) Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on January 02, 2020, 04:36:57 PM Small example when I predict 7777 then that price guess covers: 7752-7802 and only 7803 and more are available or 7751 and lower are available. Small correction: If someone predicts 7803, the 7777-prediction doesn't cover 7752-7802, but only 7752-7790, and 7790-7828 is "covered" bij prediction 7803. In this case, 7790 overlaps both predictions. This was in discussion but not in play anymore, like 7777 cannot be taken ... it will be like in the above post how o_e_l_e_o suggested and was chosen in the poll... Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: LoyceV on January 02, 2020, 04:59:13 PM you might need to help me out or something.... Okay example:Code: 1. 100 - 101 This gives almost 250 spots between ~$5,000 and ~$50,000. If that's not enough, the range can go lower than 1% for each prediction. It's just a simple spreadsheet rounding down a 1% increase for each number, then adding $1 to start the next one. I didn't go lower than $100, it doesn't work with 1% increases and rounding down. Bears like that shouldn't be on Bitcointalk anyway :P If anyone predicts more than $3,213,650, I couldn't be happier if they win :D Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on January 02, 2020, 05:04:13 PM you might need to help me out or something.... Okay example:I assumed 1% range, but for the bears, when I start as low as $100, they get up to 2% due to rounding to whole dollars. This gives almost 250 spots between ~$5,000 and ~$50,000. If that's not enough, the range can go lower than 1% for each prediction. It's just a simple spreadsheet rounding down a 1% increase for each number, then adding $1 to start the next one. I didn't go lower than $100, it doesn't work with 1% increases and rounding down. Bears like that shouldn't be on Bitcointalk anyway :P An alternative, and this is a bit more complicated but also a good exercise in using Bitcoin's possibilities, would be to ask everyone to hide their prediction until the entries are closed. So: 1. make up a number ($100,000). 2. sign a message from a Bitcoin address with your prediction and some random text ("$100,000 6632099102860212817669648358652770915593"). 3. post only the signature, don't edit this post anymore. Keep your prediction secret and don't forget your random text! 4. wait for all other participants to do the same, and wait for micgoossens to announce new entries are no longer allowed 5. post the bitcoin address and signed message, this reveals your prediction. 6. now we wait :) ^ I mean with a next game to maybe do something with hidden guesses etc :) Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: kurious on January 02, 2020, 05:53:44 PM Mic - I think your $50 boxes work fine, mate.
It's your game, so you call it... but getting too complex is not a great idea - in my humble opinion. It was ok as it was, but boxes does make it a little more fair and stops people gaming it by going 'one less' or 'one more' than another guess and reducing chances for another hopeful participant. If most people guess between (say) 5K and 25K you will have 400 boxes on offer - with an inevitable cluster towards the middle, tapering out to the extreme high/low ends. That's plenty of choices, and (relatively) simple. Setting the actual time of the end of the comp will be another dilemma for you to think on. The halving will be in a particular block - at a particular time - but not precisely knowable in advance. You may want to set it as 'midnight UTC' on the day of the first mined block containing the new reward (or at a time X days after this). That way will mean there is an easily verifiable 'on the record' price. In the event it falls between two boxes you can look to the price to two decimal places to sort it out. All simple enough - but just my suggestions. Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: sgbett on January 02, 2020, 07:13:05 PM FWIW I was thinking along same lines as Loyce - percentage increments gives the fairest box ranges, corresponding to linear increments on a log chart.
I also think timing it with the halving is a great twist... though getting the merit to take part is a tough ask for us BSV shills though ;) If you ask me people with paid sigs should be excluded heheh Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: exstasie on January 02, 2020, 07:47:23 PM Will this speculation be for the exact moment of the halving, or a couple of months later? I can be much more bullish if it's 4 months after the halving :D In my opinion, this works best as a "highest price before the halving" game. 4 months after the halving is just another Q3 game. Removing the need to guess the exact price on an exact date also makes it less chance-based, which I'm a big fan of. It's your game, so you call it... but getting too complex is not a great idea - in my humble opinion. Emphatic +1. You're the man Mic! Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: El duderino_ on January 02, 2020, 09:07:54 PM Will this speculation be for the exact moment of the halving, or a couple of months later? I can be much more bullish if it's 4 months after the halving :D In my opinion, this works best as a "highest price before the halving" game. 4 months after the halving is just another Q3 game. Removing the need to guess the exact price on an exact date also makes it less chance-based, which I'm a big fan of. Maybe good to take a date again and the closest price that moment... instead of the highest until the date... Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: hosseinimr93 on January 02, 2020, 11:30:57 PM I like the idea of LoyceV because of using a great feature of bitcoin and also more fair ranges. 50$ dollar range is almost nothing for those who predict 100,000 dollar.
Also, there is no problem with complexity of making guesses. Because it will be an exercise for those who haven't ever signed a message. But the problem will be repetitive guesses. What if 10 people predict exactly 10,000 and that will be the winning price? Split the reward equally between all 10 winners? In my opinion, it would be better to have only one winner with a big reward. Title: Re: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! Post by: kurious on January 02, 2020, 11:34:07 PM Will this speculation be for the exact moment of the halving, or a couple of months later? I can be much more bullish if it's 4 months after the halving :D In my opinion, this works best as a "highest price before the halving" game. 4 months after the halving is just another Q3 game. Removing the need to guess the exact price on an exact date also makes it less chance-based, which I'm a big fan of. Maybe good to take a date again and the closest price that moment... instead of the highest until the date... Yes, as the game could be an anti climax if it spiked up next week and then says down for over four months. Day of halving is around 14th May, it will get more precise as we get closer, of course - and it could get volatile. Drama until the end that way... |