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Question: how to proceed the game
Fix boxes of 50$ range "o_e_l_e_o" suggestion watch post, winner takes all - 12 (63.2%)
tick box, "dragonvslinux" suggestion 200$ boxes multiple person allowed, price divide among winners - 3 (15.8%)
pick whatever price with a 25 up and 25 down range - 4 (21.1%)
Total Voters: 19

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Author Topic: Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! NOT HERE NOT HERE  (Read 882 times)
El duderino_
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December 29, 2019, 03:45:33 PM
Last edit: January 03, 2020, 01:03:02 AM by micgoossens
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (8), LoyceV (4), BitcoinPenny (3), 1miau (2), Buchi-88 (1), pooya87 (1), bitserve (1), bitcoinPsycho (1), hosseinimr93 (1)
 #1

This game will open somewhere in January at a random time and date, I only wanna share a heads up now that this game will be a bit different.

One rule I already gonna give and that is that when a member gives a price then a space of 25$ up and 25$ down are not available anymore for other members guesses, so everyone has a range of 51$ at least (so if no one is close then it still is the closest one)
Small example when I predict 7777 then that price guess covers:  7752-7802 and only 7803 and more are available or 7751 and lower are available.


A second rule I do wanna apply is that an account needs at least 25 merits, as these games are mostly for longer contributing forum members, so if some are short a bit, then still there are at least some days maybe weeks to earn some....
Also there most be some recent activity.


I will also have a side question probably ....

More news and stuff and rules will be in the OP when the game is open... (It will mostly mean people can't get very boxed in and no one have to wait to put in there price last minute)


Open for questions or ideas as well.


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El duderino_
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December 29, 2019, 03:45:57 PM
 #2

reserved

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December 29, 2019, 05:04:33 PM
 #3

A second rule I do wanna apply is that an account needs at least 25 merits

Open for questions or ideas as well.
Earned merits?

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December 29, 2019, 05:27:00 PM
 #4

A second rule I do wanna apply is that an account needs at least 25 merits

Open for questions or ideas as well.
Earned merits?

That’s always a difficult one ..... but I think from now I have to say yes earned ones as the merit system is a forum thing we all have to live and work with so people on the forum that respect the place will earn some merits and contribute to the place

If this is to much it’s still open for discussion, I just trying to improve the games.... price is relatively big so I just only want it would be won under best circumstances.

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December 29, 2019, 06:15:46 PM
 #5

micgoossens, you should change the thread title IMO. last time you put "game" in the title, moderators moved it to the games and rounds board---and it subsequently died. i hate the moderators on this forum.....

+1 on the "earned merits" bit. too many bought/sold accounts around here.

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December 29, 2019, 06:32:51 PM
 #6

Its time for me to reserve a spot. I always miss the fun with a few days, but not this time. I'll keep an eye for the opening Smiley
Happy New Year Smiley

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December 29, 2019, 07:15:43 PM
 #7

Oh, great again
I made my prediction to the end of the year, but I already know that is impossible to win with my price range
Now I'll try to predict better and who knows win this with the halving  Grin

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December 29, 2019, 10:16:28 PM
 #8


One rule I already gonna give and that is that when a member gives a price then a space of 25$ up and 25$ down are not available anymore for other members guesses, so everyone has a range of 51$ at least (so if no one is close then it still is the closest one)
Small example when I predict 7777 then that price guess covers:  7752-7802 and only 7803 and more are available or 7751 and lower are available.

Nice idea, though surely it would be more fair not to have a $51 range between guesses. For example, if most people wanted to bet that the price would be (for example) $10K, then wouldn't it make more sense to allow everyone to squeeze their bids into this, whether they be only dollars apart, so everyone still has a fair chance? Otherwise the game risks having the "popular prices" already taken, and members having to guess less favorable prices (to their predictions).

Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price. Even if 100 members tick the same box that is the winning price, to me this makes the game a lot fairer.

I have one suggestion I have always been thinking about the games. Didn't know you were planning to do more... but if you do insist of spending the little BTC you got left after your boating accident... Tongue

The thing is that being first in chosing a date is somewhat "penalized" in that you can be boxed and can't do anything against. I would predetermine the boxes in such a way that if several people decide to chose the same "box" (ie: from 7200 to 7400) they all share (divide) the prize. That way more probable ranges will have more people to share the price, yes, but they won't wait till later to see if their initial choosing is too "crowded" and chose a better one. I think that will make for a more "honest" chosing with no consideration what other people have chosen. And results would be much more reliable about what people really think could be the right choice even if they have to "share" the prize.

Not sure if I have explained it well.... I could do better otherwise... some other time. Too much drink tonight. Cheers!

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December 29, 2019, 11:48:50 PM
 #9

Gonna enter a HODLsleep right now, and come back on it tomorrow....

Hope some more share there thought which is the better approach ...?


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December 29, 2019, 11:49:03 PM
Merited by pooya87 (1), hosseinimr93 (1), Heisenberg_Hunter (1)
 #10

I like your new rule of blocked 51$-ranges very much. For the last giveaways, it was indeed a problem that many people made "crowded" predictions.  Cheesy
A range of 51$ is also very fair, assuming the range of BTC until 2020 halving is most likely from 5,000$ to 15,000$ we have 10,000$ for different ranges = 200 spots. In reality it'll be lower because e.g. user A has a prediction of 10,000$ (Range between 9,975$ - 10,025$) and user B predicted 10,075$ (Range between 10,050$ - 10,100$) so only 25$ is left between 10,026$ and 10,049$ where nobody can enroll a 51$ range:

Better visualized:

Range downpredictedRange up
____________________________________________________________
9,975$10,000$10,025$
10,02610,049$
10,050$10,075$10,100$

Or isn't this red range blocked?



Looking forward to a nice giveaway (and hopefully a rising Bitcoin price).  Cheesy



Hope some more share there thought which is the better approach ...?
I like your decision so far. 100% support.  Wink
The other suggestion from bitserve quoted by dragonvslinux above is also a nice consideration. Solo mining predicting vs. mining predicting in pools.  Cheesy Cheesy

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December 29, 2019, 11:59:50 PM
Last edit: December 30, 2019, 12:14:41 AM by STT
 #11

Quote
In reality it'll be lower

It might need to be done in $50 increments to allow the best spacing yea

Hate is a strong word, hesitate to aquience on a point of order  Tongue      I agree with the point about title though, its more open speculation since all factors are real.
    The range rule is probably good for encouraging people to guess earlier rather then later in order to stake a claim to that range of feasible prices.     I dont think its too unfair as the price is never going to be precise, if my guess were 10k then I cant say I really know if it will be anywhere from 9700 to 10300.   So thats about 13 people who can go near to 10k.   Maybe others really are more precise then that, but if we're talking over months I think its ok as trajectory is only going to be within an area.      I guessed 6613 last go and here we are near to year end at over 800 dollars away but I dont consider myself horribly wrong, I was in the rough area.


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December 30, 2019, 05:04:00 AM
 #12

In reality it'll be lower because e.g. user A has a prediction of 10,000$ (Range between 9,975$ - 10,025$) and user B predicted 10,075$ (Range between 10,050$ - 10,100$) so only 25$ is left between 10,026$ and 10,049$ where nobody can enroll a 51$ range:

that's the first thing that came to my mind too but i suppose it should not matter that much since $50 isn't that big compared to the price numeric value specially if due to halving price shoots up like previous two times. the predictions could be in range of $130,700-$130,725 and that small space wouldn't matter Tongue

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December 30, 2019, 09:53:28 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #13

Your a legend Mic  love your games;)

THE NEXT 24 YEARS ARE CRITICAL
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December 30, 2019, 10:12:59 AM
Last edit: January 01, 2020, 01:25:08 AM by mprep
 #14

Your a legend Mic  love your games;)

I did became legendary indeed a few weeks-moths ago

Thanks for being a part of that !!!



I like your new rule of blocked 51$-ranges very much. For the last giveaways, it was indeed a problem that many people made "crowded" predictions.  Cheesy
A range of 51$ is also very fair, assuming the range of BTC until 2020 halving is most likely from 5,000$ to 15,000$ we have 10,000$ for different ranges = 200 spots. In reality it'll be lower because e.g. user A has a prediction of 10,000$ (Range between 9,975$ - 10,025$) and user B predicted 10,075$ (Range between 10,050$ - 10,100$) so only 25$ is left between 10,026$ and 10,049$ where nobody can enroll a 51$ range:

Better visualized:

Range downpredictedRange up
____________________________________________________________
9,975$10,000$10,025$
10,02610,049$
10,050$10,075$10,100$

Or isn't this red range blocked?



Looking forward to a nice giveaway (and hopefully a rising Bitcoin price).  Cheesy



Hope some more share there thought which is the better approach ...?
I like your decision so far. 100% support.  Wink
The other suggestion from bitserve quoted by dragonvslinux above is also a nice consideration. Solo mining predicting vs. mining predicting in pools.  Cheesy Cheesy

I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post)



In reality it'll be lower because e.g. user A has a prediction of 10,000$ (Range between 9,975$ - 10,025$) and user B predicted 10,075$ (Range between 10,050$ - 10,100$) so only 25$ is left between 10,026$ and 10,049$ where nobody can enroll a 51$ range:

that's the first thing that came to my mind too but i suppose it should not matter that much since $50 isn't that big compared to the price numeric value specially if due to halving price shoots up like previous two times. the predictions could be in range of $130,700-$130,725 and that small space wouldn't matter Tongue

Let us hope 2020 brings those kinds of numeric values Smiley

Also remember the date of the game isn't set yet, it will have to do something with the halving ...



SO, on the one side I have;

*price guess with UP and DOWN ranges for your guess like 7550 would mean all the prices from 7525-7575 are the ones for that guess not to be harmed by any other member


*price guess in "tick box" what would mean from zero to ..... all prices are in boxes of 200 (not sure if that would be the chosen box open for discussion) but just to explain the system... like 0-200,201-400,401-600,601-800............. are boxes and everyone can go in every box, at the end the winning box will divide the price thats awarded for the game


I will open a poll for this?? O do I got it wrong?



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December 30, 2019, 10:31:48 AM
Merited by bitserve (1), Heisenberg_Hunter (1), 1miau (1)
 #15

I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post)
The other option would be to make set ranges of $50, such as 9501-9550, 9551-9600, 9601-9650, and so on, and let everyone pick a single range (and only have one person per range). If a range or set of ranges goes unpicked, then the users on each side simply absorb the excess.

Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price.
This doesn't solve the problem you pose, though. Multiple members could pick the 9976-1025 range, and if the price is 1026, then they will all lose. I much prefer a "winner takes all" style rather than letting multiple people pick the same price.

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December 30, 2019, 10:44:44 AM
 #16

I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post)
The other option would be to make set ranges of $50, such as 9501-9550, 9551-9600, 9601-9650, and so on, and let everyone pick a single range (and only have one person per range). If a range or set of ranges goes unpicked, then the users on each side simply absorb the excess.

Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price.
This doesn't solve the problem you pose, though. Multiple members could pick the 9976-1025 range, and if the price is 1026, then they will all lose. I much prefer a "winner takes all" style rather than letting multiple people pick the same price.




A bit of a mix of them both ...

I like the idea, lets make a poll

BUT .... dragonvslinux just saying that if most people would think around 8750 for example then only a few can really guess close to there target...

Of-course in a game like this, you can't serve everyone equally, there is always a difference in how others think...

Only the set boxes of 50... will demand everyone to closely look read and pick there spot, probably its gonna get messy  Roll Eyes
On the other hand its much better to don't have any gaps of 10-20... $, though for some its nice to have these gaps the get some larger ranges etc lol


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December 30, 2019, 11:00:05 AM
Merited by o_e_l_e_o (1)
 #17

I wouldn't say the RED is blocked, but the ones with 10.000 and the one with 10.075 just have there full range if someone says anything inbetween, then they just have the range inbetween the already chosen ones (what is the RED prices in your post)
The other option would be to make set ranges of $50, such as 9501-9550, 9551-9600, 9601-9650, and so on, and let everyone pick a single range (and only have one person per range). If a range or set of ranges goes unpicked, then the users on each side simply absorb the excess.

Personally I prefer the "tick box" solution with tight ranges, so that if many members want to bet the same price they can, and subsequently split the winnings instead of miss out from being a dozen dollars of the correct price.
This doesn't solve the problem you pose, though. Multiple members could pick the 9976-1025 range, and if the price is 1026, then they will all lose. I much prefer a "winner takes all" style rather than letting multiple people pick the same price.
This is the way.

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December 30, 2019, 11:04:23 AM
Last edit: December 30, 2019, 11:21:00 AM by o_e_l_e_o
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)
 #18

This is the way.
I have spoken.



Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand
Yeah, it's good.

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December 30, 2019, 11:07:18 AM
 #19


Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand

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December 30, 2019, 11:13:33 AM
 #20


Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand
It's good enough. Maybe swap 'aloud' for 'allowed'.
People should be able to say, 'I'll take the 751-800 slot because my ocelot oscillator and 1337 ma indicator says 777 dollars on the due date'
afaiu

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