Speculation LIST involving the "HALVING" !!! NOT HERE NOT HERE

[El duderino_]

This is the way.

I have spoken.

Is the poll OK enough written ? Can't find the proper words or is it OK to understand

It's good enough. Maybe swap 'aloud' for 'allowed'.

Damn

[TheBeardedBaby]

One pick one winner. Imagine everyone picks only one range, then everyone wins and you have to share 100-200 satoshi in between. Of course it won't happen but the chance to stick with someone else's suggestion to win is quite higher. Fewer chosen ranges, higher chance to win. just saying...

[LFC_Bitcoin]

It must be one winner, surely & I like the $50 increments suggested by oeleo. I already know what price I’m going to pick but keeping it quiet until the game officially opens.

+8 Merit to mic - so generous to the community.

Top poster & top guy.

[El duderino_]

It must be one winner, surely & I like the $50 increments suggested by oeleo. I already know what price I’m going to pick but keeping it quiet until the game officially opens.

+8 Merit to mic - so generous to the community.

Top poster & top guy.

Yeah, don’t needed really it’s specially to celebrate a new year with an amazing event in the community “the halving” it will have everyone on the edge of there seats I guess and I hope I can make a winner happy !!!
Though THX anyway, but I always now you got my back


Damn still only 9 voting people

[Dabs]

Picking from a set range would fit most people. You can define the range starting from say, 1001-1050, 1051-1100, 1101-1150 ...

Not sure if 50 is good, might be easier to do 100, so it becomes 1001-1100, .... or 1000-1099, 1100-1199, 1200-1299

You just have to set the rules what the range is, and the first one who takes a particular range gets it. Too bad for others, they can either pick something else, or pick the same one (but they don't win if that's the result.)

[bitserve]

The option to share the slots (that I suggested while in a mild intoxicated state mind you ) could be an interesting experiment and also it would depend if you Mic would like to have multiple winners sharing the price instead of "one winner takes it all" but... It doesn't fix the "better to wait for a late pick" strategy problem I was trying to address.

That's why I posted another (again poorly worded) post the next day: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.380

If the slots are shareable it will still be better strategy to wait before making your pick, because you will be always able to chose ANY slot.

On the other hand, if there are preselected slots available in a first-come-first-served way earlier picks will be incentivised, as the "best slots" (which is very subjective and many times proved otherwise in the end) will be gone for late picks.

Also while the $25 above and under a pick seems to be fair, it allows for an strategy of:

- Be quick in decide your pick, but don't post it yet.
- Wait for someone make a pick near your target zone.
- Now add $24 above or $24 under that pick and post that as your pick.

That way you have locked additional "winning range" for your pick (and for the one you used to "pivot") and it is still in your "target zone". And you have "unfairly" reduced available space for next picks.

Conclusion:

I would preset the slots in the way oeleo has said.

The wording for the rules would be easy: Your picks must end either in 01 or 50.

For a pick ending in 01, ie 7801, the winning range would be 7776 to 7825. For the pick 7851, the winning range would be 7826 to 7875.

Of course the winning range could be even wider if there are no near picks around, but that is the minimum "unboxeable" range. So now it is best strategy to go for earlier picks than wait later (unless you are going for a very unpopular/crazy price range, as some do).

Simple, easier and non exploitable.

[Dabs]

The "I have spoken" dude didn't quite ... oh wait.. spoiler alert ... anyway, you know what I mean if you've seen it.

And then there were those mercenaries making fun of "this is his way.." .. but well, ... still awesome.

[o_e_l_e_o]

So now it is best strategy to go for earlier picks than wait later (unless you are going for a very unpopular/crazy price range, as some do).

Who's to say what's a crazy range. I think as mic's previous competitions have shown us, the majority of us seem to be consistently overly bullish. Unless you really believe in the accuracy of your TA, the best tactic might be to wait until a few minutes before closing time and pick a price which will gives you the largest gaps between the next closest predictions to maximize your range. Conversely, waiting until the end you may well only be left truly outlandish predictions. Who knows?

Mic's last competition had 181 entries, so 50 dollar brackets would give a minimum 9k price spread, which I think is reasonable. 100 dollar brackets would need a 18k spread. Given that some brackets will go unclaimed, and we are assuming this competition will be bigger than the last, I think 50 dollar brackets seems correct.

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

I like the o_e_l_e_o 's suggestion in spreading out the $50 boxes like ranges and partially like bitserve's post as well. The participants picks up the ranges and it would be quite simple since majority of the participants never choose a single price range with $50 difference actually.


Regarding the second rule, 25-50 earned merits should be implemented and along with that a new rule like Bounty Spammers Hunters aren't allowed to participate in the game should be implemented with that. These spammers were never really helpful for this forum and would never likely be helpful in a longer run or would help in building a better stronger community. They roam around various corners of this forum hunting for money and shouldn't really be allowed to participate in these sorts of events.

I do urge on the implementation of this rule because, during the early days of merit system many of these spammers have traded merits with others and have easily gained those 25 merits which would certainly become an easier way for them to join this game.

[El duderino_]

@o_e_l_e_o, will merit your posts later, they where very helpful and well liked as the poll is showing...

I don't know but this kind of game exclude the strategy of waiting and taking as much as possible spots, as some will not be in the position with one right above and right below, what could be annoying.

Thx for all those with input and help to try create a better game.

[El duderino_]

I like the o_e_l_e_o 's suggestion in spreading out the $50 boxes like ranges and partially like bitserve's post as well. The participants picks up the ranges and it would be quite simple since majority of the participants never choose a single price range with $50 difference actually.


Regarding the second rule, 25-50 earned merits should be implemented and along with that a new rule like Bounty Spammers Hunters aren't allowed to participate in the game should be implemented with that. These spammers were never really helpful for this forum and would never likely be helpful in a longer run or would help in building a better stronger community. They roam around various corners of this forum hunting for money and shouldn't really be allowed to participate in these sorts of events.

I do urge on the implementation of this rule because, during the early days of merit system many of these spammers have traded merits with others and have easily gained those 25 merits which would certainly become an easier way for them to join this game.

Yes sir I would like to now put in 25 earned merit as a reasonable nr I think, for the time the merit system is here, most could achieve 25, as the game is mostly meant for longer contributing members as well, so new people could be encouraged to write well and try to earn merit to be on a next game ...


For second i'm not the guy with the knowledge who are the real scammers are Alt's of others, if someone with appropriate knowledge about this matter and would help out then I would certainly wanna implement this, but me alone isn't the right guy to decide such things.....

Who will who could ??

[Last of the V8s]

I think don't worry about scammers and their alts, mic. They haven't seemed to try to join twice, as it were, so far in your previous competitions. You would have heard all about it! Everyone would tell you instantly 'oh x is likely an alt of y scammer, he's trying to join twice'.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Maybe we could have one winner takes all for the bitcoin prize but 2nd & 3rd closest gets some Merit or something.
I’d be happy to help & send 20 or something into a pot at the end

Only a suggestion, if it’s a dumb idea somebody tell me to STFU

1st prize - 0.x amount of BTC
2nd prize - 50 Merit
3rd prize - 25 Merit

[o_e_l_e_o]

The easiest way to do this is probably just to state a minimum of x earned merits in the last y months, so 25 merits earned in the last 6 months, for example. (I just pulled those numbers out of thin air. I appreciate that my view on earning merits is very different to the "average" forum user, so I don't know what a reasonable amount of merit per month is.) And only count merit earned up until the announcement of the competition, so spammers can't quickly trade merit between accounts and then enter. Any other method would be very resource intensive as someone would have to be manually checking everyone's posting history, as well as pretty subjective as to who is classed as a "spammer" and who isn't.

[El duderino_]

I think don't worry about scammers and their alts, mic. They haven't seemed to try to join twice, as it were, so far in your previous competitions. You would have heard all about it! Everyone would tell you instantly 'oh x is likely an alt of y scammer, he's trying to join twice'.

Yeah maybe good people tell me, nutildah ones told me a guy entering twice... so he's a good one to take a look for such things

Probably you as well

[bitserve]

I would suggest that easiest for you is just to use the list of the most merited users and just decide where do you want to put the cut, ie: 300, 500, 1000, 2000 etc most merited users as eligible to participate. Fix it at the time of opening the game and everyone just need to lookup if their name is on the list.

For alts and all that stuff I am sure there will be people in the know that will voice it when/if that happens.

Other alternatives would probably put an additional and unnecessary work on you.

[Questat]

Good thing that 25 earned merits are not from the last 120 says, otherwise, I would not qualify for this competition.

I'll bookmarked this one so I would be aware when it starts, I think I got 40 merits as of now.

so everyone has a range of 51$ at least

I liked the new rule.

[El duderino_]

^
When the game opens it will follow the o_e_l_e_o idea  as the poll made clear most thought this was the best way to go

first is first and the price that will be picked has to be a nr for example like it starts from 0 and counts up

0-50
51-100
101-150
151-200
....
7001-7050
7051-7100
7101-7150
7151-7200
etc

So a member will be allowed to chose a price with his own 50$ range, a taken box is a reserved space not to be taken again.

I will also ask when the game opens and someone takes a guess, to write it as shown in this post...

[asus09]

I want to qualify with your competition but I don't know what do you want whit your game, prediction about your merit earn or talking prediction of halving time for bitcoin, could you give me clearly information detail because I look very excited with your merit words because I want to earn merit based on my quality post.

[Questat]

I want to qualify with your competition but I don't know what do you want whit your game, prediction about your merit earn or talking prediction of halving time for bitcoin, could you give me clearly information detail because I look very excited with your merit words because I want to earn merit based on my quality post.

Read the OP again and translate it if you can't fully understands it, this is a prediction game which you are required to have at least earned 25 merits to qualified, but it's yet to be finalized and you still have plenty of days to earn that required merits before the game formally starts.

according to https://bpip.org/profile.aspx?p=asus09. it seems like you haven't earn a single merit yet.