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Title: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: 206 bones on January 30, 2020, 01:57:26 PM It looks like it.... :o
There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. When this happens is easy for the price to come down, because it doesn't have any support whatsoever. Whales & good traders will continue to take advantage of FOMO so they can accumulate more. I think we will revisit 8k, but just under 9k. After this dip, it looks like we are going to be saying bye bye to 8k for ever. So, prepare those usd guys for this next dip $$ If you want to know more about my reasoning on this matter visit this topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221788.0 Note: It's difficult to predict when is going to happen, but it's highly probable it will. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: TIDOVEE on January 30, 2020, 02:16:54 PM It looks like it.... :o I'm actually not expecting any real dump again at this time , every price flunctuation now will still be around this present value and not lesser.This Moment is close to halving and we are leaving $8k for the next level. We may not have much puch till April but there will be steady increase till the halving in attained. There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. When this happens is easy for the price to come down, because it doesn't have any support whatsoever. Whales & good traders will continue to take advantage of FOMO so they can accumulate more. I think we will revisit 8k, but just under 9k. After this dip, it looks like we are going to be saying bye bye to 8k for ever. So, prepare those usd guys for this next dip $$ If you want to know more about my reasoning in this matter visit this topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221788.0 Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: 206 bones on January 30, 2020, 02:41:31 PM It looks like it.... :o I'm actually not expecting any real dump again at this time , every price flunctuation now will still be around this present value and not lesser.This Moment is close to halving and we are leaving $8k for the next level. We may not have much puch till April but there will be steady increase till the halving in attained. There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. When this happens is easy for the price to come down, because it doesn't have any support whatsoever. Whales & good traders will continue to take advantage of FOMO so they can accumulate more. I think we will revisit 8k, but just under 9k. After this dip, it looks like we are going to be saying bye bye to 8k for ever. So, prepare those usd guys for this next dip $$ If you want to know more about my reasoning in this matter visit this topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221788.0 The majority of people believe this. I don't. We will see. There is still 100 days to halving. Not close enough. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Lucius on January 30, 2020, 03:16:23 PM I do not see a big problem in the fact that price may drop again for some $500 or maybe even $1000. We recently had $9100 and a quick dump to $8500, so a similar situation could happen again. We are in a time when everything is possible, but bulls generally prevail in the last 30-40 days which is very easy to see if you check price just the week before Christmas. I saw somewhere that this was the best January for BTC since 2012, and I believe this is just warming up for one very successful year.
There will probably be many more small dumps, but only because a stable price does not make a profit for those who trade on a daily basis - buy low, sell high, make a profit and repeat everything again. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: GuyFromBarcelona on January 30, 2020, 03:24:11 PM I do not see a big problem in the fact that price may drop again for some $500 or maybe even $1000. We recently had $9100 and a quick dump to $8500, so a similar situation could happen again. We are in a time when everything is possible, but bulls generally prevail in the last 30-40 days which is very easy to see if you check price just the week before Christmas. I saw somewhere that this was the best January for BTC since 2012, and I believe this is just warming up for one very successful year. There will probably be many more small dumps, but only because a stable price does not make a profit for those who trade on a daily basis - buy low, sell high, make a profit and repeat everything again. It's really difficult to guess at this moment. But I think that there are two things that are very likely to happen: 1. In ""long"" term, by the end of the year, btc will be higher than now 2. At 10k will be a correction. The question is how big it's going to be, maybe insignificant, maybe moderate. Doesn't seem that a big one coming. So buying now thinking in holding for a year or two is a good and probably profitable option regardless of what happens now-short term. In the short term is difficult to know if it's a good entry price, not going back below 9k again after hitting 10k, or a bad entry price because we could see correcting to 8,5k in a week. It went +30% in just weeks, so a 15% correction wouldn't be a bad thing or something to worry about. In fact it would recover part of it very rapidly I bet. Edit: Obviously these are just my thoughts, and even though I fell pretty confident about it the current situation is quite difficult to read Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: BrewMaster on January 30, 2020, 04:11:23 PM dump? not at all
a small drop maybe? possible. can anybody predict it? absolutely not :D the thing is that we are again at a point where it becomes impossible to predict which way the market is going to go. if price starts going higher we can easily see a much bigger jump passing through $10k and shooting above it. but if 10% resists then we can see a drop to get ready again. however this "drop" is not a dump, it will be something like going to $8900 then coming back up again. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: fabiorem on January 30, 2020, 04:18:28 PM I'm not so sure this time.
In other times it was easy to identify a bull trap. The rising was small, the hopium in the forum was high, and the FGI always indicated fear. Now, the rising, although still small, is being sustained for days, the hopium is not so high as before, and the FGI indicates greed for the first time in several months. So we have sustained rise, less hopium, and more greed. This is the recipe for a bull market. In a bull market corrections are usually in the weekends, whereas in a bear market you only have a small rise for two days, which consists in bull traps. If we have a small correction in the weekend, it will only bring more evidence of a nascent bull market. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Coin_trader on January 30, 2020, 04:33:36 PM It looks like it.... :o There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. What Pure Air are you talking about eh? The current momentum was supported by a good volume. If you look on 1 day timeframe on the graph. You are creating FUD in this post. BTC has support on 8.8k level and might test but contradicting to your post. The price surge is a bit organic since we are approaching bitcoin halving and many whales are riding the waves. Don't go against the tide or else you just drowned. If you can provide a detailed technical analysis regarding your claims then I might believe you. You are only using your feelings to predict the market which is kinda scary. Unless a sudden Doji appear then huge fall might occur. But right now, The sky is very clear for bitcoin price to reach the moooon. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: 206 bones on January 30, 2020, 06:55:58 PM It looks like it.... :o There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. What Pure Air are you talking about eh? The current momentum was supported by a good volume. If you look on 1 day timeframe on the graph. You are creating FUD in this post. BTC has support on 8.8k level and might test but contradicting to your post. The price surge is a bit organic since we are approaching bitcoin halving and many whales are riding the waves. Don't go against the tide or else you just drowned. If you can provide a detailed technical analysis regarding your claims then I might believe you. You are only using your feelings to predict the market which is kinda scary. Unless a sudden Doji appear then huge fall might occur. But right now, The sky is very clear for bitcoin price to reach the moooon. You probably can't read. I posted a link to my rationalisation. Organic my balls. Just watch. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: mahilchii on January 30, 2020, 08:26:52 PM Not at all, if there's a dump there might be a fluctuation. What I personally feel is it may pump because of halving appearance not the one which you are saying just a small glitch cannot be considered as a dump mate. Also we can see that BTC is nearing 10k which is a great sign for a massive pump in my opinion. However it looks like there might not be any dump for few days.
Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: bitbunnny on January 30, 2020, 09:23:04 PM I don't know how you can see dump comming, maybe you have a cristal ball. :)
Now seriously. Currently the price is rising but I think that pull back is possible. I wouldn't name that a dump, it's more a correction because I don't expect that price goes lower that it was before current rise. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: dunfida on January 30, 2020, 09:27:48 PM It looks like it.... :o There would always be a price correction after some good price increase.I do say that were heading too fast on 5k digit price but i believe that breaking 10k resistance would take up some time or there might be a bounceback. Currently the price is playing between 9300-9500 and we wont know if on next hour it would head towards that 10k resistance either it will break out or bounce.There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. When this happens is easy for the price to come down, because it doesn't have any support whatsoever. Whales & good traders will continue to take advantage of FOMO so they can accumulate more. I think we will revisit 8k, but just under 9k. After this dip, it looks like we are going to be saying bye bye to 8k for ever. So, prepare those usd guys for this next dip $$ If you want to know more about my reasoning on this matter visit this topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221788.0 Note: It's difficult to predict when is going to happen, but it's highly probable it will. For sure there are usd guys waiting for that dip opportunity.This is a typical stuff that do happens everytime on each market. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: exstasie on January 30, 2020, 09:51:24 PM Yes I do, although there will probably be some disagreement over use of the word "dump." In the bigger picture, it will probably be viewed as a "pullback" or "correction" instead.
This is my general idea: https://i.imgur.com/yD47pOA.png A 50-62% retracement would be typical, although it doesn't need to go that deep. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: wheelz1200 on January 30, 2020, 10:01:22 PM It looks like it.... :o There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. When this happens is easy for the price to come down, because it doesn't have any support whatsoever. Whales & good traders will continue to take advantage of FOMO so they can accumulate more. I think we will revisit 8k, but just under 9k. After this dip, it looks like we are going to be saying bye bye to 8k for ever. So, prepare those usd guys for this next dip $$ If you want to know more about my reasoning on this matter visit this topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221788.0 Note: It's difficult to predict when is going to happen, but it's highly probable it will. What makes you so sure we will never see $8k ever again, we only just recently crossed it again. Remember in late 2017 when peoe we saying $10k will never be breached again. That didnt go so well. I'm not a pessimist just a realist. Will it dip from here it might I think we will see a lot of profit taking around 10k so could very well dip. But no indication we are parabolic upwards from there. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Yaunfitda on January 30, 2020, 10:15:48 PM I wouldn't be surprised though, I mean we have seen this pattern just a couple of weeks, so why panic when the price goes on another correction again?
But I think FOMO is still not setting in, if it did then we are going to see $10k again. But as the OP has said, the price could go down so for me FOMO is not there yet. And it's normal to see this kind of healthy pullback instead of artificial and inorganic pump followed by a huge massive drop of like 30% in a day or two. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: The Sceptical Chymist on January 30, 2020, 10:28:18 PM There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. I don't know if I buy your reasoning as to why this recent price increase is "artificial" or not. Perhaps I don't understand the jargon you use, but it sounds like a bunch of gobbledygook to me with buzzwords like dump and FOMO thrown in to make it very clear you're probably reading all of the wrong stuff. On the other hand, it isn't hard to get the feeling that bitcoin might correct when it starts rocketing upward. I haven't done the math and so don't know how much bitcoin gained percentage-wise, but it has been significant. It's up probably more than $2k in the past week, and that's more than 20%. So just going by what's happened in the past I do get the sense that there's probably going to be a selloff eventually, but the only question in my mind is how high bitcoin will get before that happens. Yes I do, although there will probably be some disagreement over use of the word "dump." I've always had the opinion that people should really stop using that word to describe bitcoin's price movement. Since bitcoin is not a pump & dump scheme, you'll never catch me describing a crash, correction, or selloff as a "dump".Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Coin_trader on January 30, 2020, 11:28:38 PM It looks like it.... :o There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. What Pure Air are you talking about eh? The current momentum was supported by a good volume. If you look on 1 day timeframe on the graph. You are creating FUD in this post. BTC has support on 8.8k level and might test but contradicting to your post. The price surge is a bit organic since we are approaching bitcoin halving and many whales are riding the waves. Don't go against the tide or else you just drowned. If you can provide a detailed technical analysis regarding your claims then I might believe you. You are only using your feelings to predict the market which is kinda scary. Unless a sudden Doji appear then huge fall might occur. But right now, The sky is very clear for bitcoin price to reach the moooon. You probably can't read. I posted a link to my rationalisation. Organic my balls. Just watch. I read your lin to your other thread that's why I said you are just resorting to your feeling and ZERO technical analysis neither fundamwntal analysis. The way you talk simply tells that you can't support logically your analysis and I'm always watching BTC chart since I have a position daily. ;) Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: 206 bones on January 31, 2020, 12:01:36 AM It looks like it.... :o There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. What Pure Air are you talking about eh? The current momentum was supported by a good volume. If you look on 1 day timeframe on the graph. You are creating FUD in this post. BTC has support on 8.8k level and might test but contradicting to your post. The price surge is a bit organic since we are approaching bitcoin halving and many whales are riding the waves. Don't go against the tide or else you just drowned. If you can provide a detailed technical analysis regarding your claims then I might believe you. You are only using your feelings to predict the market which is kinda scary. Unless a sudden Doji appear then huge fall might occur. But right now, The sky is very clear for bitcoin price to reach the moooon. You probably can't read. I posted a link to my rationalisation. Organic my balls. Just watch. I read your lin to your other thread that's why I said you are just resorting to your feeling and ZERO technical analysis neither fundamwntal analysis. The way you talk simply tells that you can't support logically your analysis and I'm always watching BTC chart since I have a position daily. ;) BTC reasoning goes beyond charts. I could be wrong. But I really don't think so ;D Yes I do, although there will probably be some disagreement over use of the word "dump." In the bigger picture, it will probably be viewed as a "pullback" or "correction" instead. This is my general idea: https://i.imgur.com/yD47pOA.png A 50-62% retracement would be typical, although it doesn't need to go that deep. :o that's a huuugee dip. I'm happy we are matching with our forecast. But I think it will be VERY difficult to go under 8.5k. The majority of people who are buying now, will not sell, so that will make support level rise from the previews one due to less supply. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: peter0425 on January 31, 2020, 03:06:49 AM dont take it much serious because market is doing great nowadays,for the whole month of January we are seeing this slowly growing market capitalization so at some points we can take this as profiteering chance right?but for me?i am not affected at all even we dump soon because this is 2020 and this is a Halving of Bitcoin year so why i am needed to be afraid?
Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: maydna on January 31, 2020, 03:50:31 AM Bitcoin price can get dump into $8k, but we can prepare for that time, so if that happens, we don't have to worry because we will make sure to buy more bitcoin after we sell some bitcoin at the higher price. We don't need to be panic because, in the crypto market, that thing will always happen, and that is why we need to prepare for the worst thing before it's happening.
I guess many people are not expecting to see bitcoin price will go down lower than $9k, but if that happens, we cannot do anything except to follow the price and use the chance to buy more bitcoin at a low price. When we can be ready for anything that will happen, we can decide and make a decision related to the current situations so we can buy at the right time. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: bgaf on January 31, 2020, 04:17:29 AM This is expected mate as series of correction will be made until it find its strong support. Right now, its keep going up, and might able to reach 9600-9800 level as many buy orders are keep approaching. But this will stop, as those traders and whales their cash or gains first. So we should prepare for a dump and make an entry point again but if this continue maybe that's a early bull run for us. Hoping it still fly, cause I'm already 340% gain already planning to dump it on 9650 if target hit. Then find a new level again.
Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: lienfaye on January 31, 2020, 04:26:58 AM Price dump is always possible to happen especially the price of btc is increasing for the past few days. Expect those short term investors to take advantage the situation so minor recovery might really happen.
However as btc halving is approaching and just few months away, we know many of us are also accumulating because of possible bull run. Well it might be too early to say but we cant deny the fact that the start of this year is positive for crypto because of the growth in price of btc and other alts. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Reid on January 31, 2020, 05:58:01 AM There will always be that possibility specially when it is increasing in fast pace.
I'd be more worry about it when it jumps with thousands of dollars. But it is not. Just a couple of hundred is not bad for a week. Besides, it had been dumped for so much the last year. I think it is just the right time for it to come back to where it belong. Although, there will always be that frightening idea that it might really go down anytime. Traders will have to be ready with that. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Oasisman on January 31, 2020, 06:23:27 AM Revisiting below $9,000 level may only have a slight chance to happen, that's what I see in this current market condition. Bitcoin is slowly gaining positive momentum and I don't see any signs of it coming down hard this time. Short pull backs were caused by quick sellers when they see a good range to sell, but as we all can see, Bitcoin can't be stopped from gradually increasing by now.
Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: exstasie on January 31, 2020, 09:48:56 AM Yes I do, although there will probably be some disagreement over use of the word "dump." In the bigger picture, it will probably be viewed as a "pullback" or "correction" instead. :o that's a huuugee dip. I'm happy we are matching with our forecast. But I think it will be VERY difficult to go under 8.5k. The majority of people who are buying now, will not sell, so that will make support level rise from the previews one due to less supply. This is my general idea: https://i.imgur.com/yD47pOA.png A 50-62% retracement would be typical, although it doesn't need to go that deep. It could definitely be a sideways correction instead, like a dip to the 0.382 that flags out. A "time" correction rather than a "price" correction, you might call it. I'll say this though. That feeling of "it can't go below x price, it's just too bullish!".....my experience is, when you get that feeling, get ready to see sub-x prices. :P I'm not sure I'd call the upper $7,000s likely, but very possible. It's good to keep in mind. xxxx123abcxxxx is seeing the same thing from another perspective: Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: GuyFromBarcelona on January 31, 2020, 10:19:50 AM Yes I do, although there will probably be some disagreement over use of the word "dump." In the bigger picture, it will probably be viewed as a "pullback" or "correction" instead. :o that's a huuugee dip. I'm happy we are matching with our forecast. But I think it will be VERY difficult to go under 8.5k. The majority of people who are buying now, will not sell, so that will make support level rise from the previews one due to less supply. This is my general idea: https://i.imgur.com/yD47pOA.png A 50-62% retracement would be typical, although it doesn't need to go that deep. It could definitely be a sideways correction instead, like a dip to the 0.382 that flags out. A "time" correction rather than a "price" correction, you might call it. I'll say this though. That feeling of "it can't go below x price, it's just too bullish!".....my experience is, when you get that feeling, get ready to see sub-x prices. :P I'm not sure I'd call the upper $7,000s likely, but very possible. It's good to keep in mind. xxxx123abcxxxx is seeing the same thing from another perspective: I am waiting for the pullback to get some more money in, I would be very happy if it goes to 7k before recovering but there are a freacking ton of buying orders at 9,2k, a ton at 9k and another ton at 8,8k, is very hard for me to imaging a pullback to 8-8,2k, in fact I have the order at 9075 and thinking if I should put it higher. But I am very new to bitcoin, more used to classical values. Wouldn't be going under 8,8k as surprising as seems to me? should I get used to randomly see that kind of pullbacks in bitcoin? the pullbacks I have seen this weeks weren't that strong. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Sanitough on January 31, 2020, 10:24:55 AM You maybe right but you can't erase to the mind of majority that they are liking what they are seeing because they have been longing for the bull run.
Price may dump, then what? we have been seeing this for years already, so we are just hoping here that bitcoin will eventually be bullish and so it would attract investors again who are really to pour their money in crypto. The bull run will come soon, call me bias but that's why my eyes and my mind sees for now. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: 1Referee on January 31, 2020, 11:02:50 AM Well it might be too early to say but we cant deny the fact that the start of this year is positive for crypto because of the growth in price of btc and other alts. It's quite a good start when you take into consideration that the month of january isn't usually Bitcoin's best month. I think what contributed to this is how altcoins seem to be breaking bullish, and when that happens they help lift Bitcoin up too, while usually it's Bitcoin lifting altcoins up. It's definitely going to be interesting to see where this goes and how traders will react just before/after the halving because that does present a solid sell the news type of event. Might be worth getting into a short if I spot signs of weakness early enough, but all that will translate into is a huge opportunity to buy the dip and add to your hodl stack. Gold is holding strong too, which might help boost people's confidence in Bitcoin since the correlation between the two assets has been quite significant in the last 6-8 months. Currently it's hovering around $1580 but I'm confident that it will reach ~$1700 before the end of the year. Whether it will hold that level remains to be seen, but that's something to think about later. https://goldprice.org/ Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Lucius on January 31, 2020, 11:37:53 AM So buying now thinking in holding for a year or two is a good and probably profitable option regardless of what happens now-short term. This is thinking shared by many, mostly based on the logic that history will repeat itself as it did in the first 2 halvings. I personally share this opinion and I hope that is exactly what will happen, but when it comes to BTC one should always take everything with a great deal of caution. Never invest what you can not afford to lose, and do not be greedy - I think that 100% profit is something that should be taken without think too much. I think we are now seeing profit-taking in action, this is for sure slows even faster price growth. Short-term investors always play their games, but that can't last forever. I think it will take until halving, and after that, we might see a little more serious growth. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: dragonvslinux on January 31, 2020, 12:19:51 PM Yes I do, although there will probably be some disagreement over use of the word "dump." In the bigger picture, it will probably be viewed as a "pullback" or "correction" instead. This is my general idea: https://i.imgur.com/yD47pOA.png A 50-62% retracement would be typical, although it doesn't need to go that deep. Nice analysis, I agree the $8800 level is a likely area to pull back to and find strong support, and we don't need to correct that far either. Especially given it's only the smaller time-frames (4hr/Daily) that are suggesting we need to "cool off" (RSI for example), whereas the Weekly will signal a bearish to bullish trend change based on a plethora of different indicators (ex: MACD, Ihimoku, Hash) by the end of the week. Simply put, macro traders and investors will be signaled to buy dips, no matter how small they are. Seeing recent TA looking for a pull-back early next month reminds me of my time-based analysis from last month of the next swing low between February 6th and 11th 2020 (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/YwKo3x6t-BTCUSD-February-6th-11th-2020-The-Next-Swing-Low/), that is now telling me the correction might be a lot faster than most people are anticipating. At least based on the past 6 years of data, this time period has been a good (or safe) time to buy, based on a probability of 85%. Not as good as 90% probability (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205261.0) of $7245 being the second best buying opportunity of 2019, but hey these high probability opportunities don't come around very often. https://i.imgur.com/JqXc9Tl.png (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/YwKo3x6t-BTCUSD-February-6th-11th-2020-The-Next-Swing-Low/) (Note: If you click play on this TA BLX is currently reading the BTC price as $0. Don't panic: Bitcoin didn't actually go to zero) An orderly pull back to the 200 Day MA (around $8900) at a minimum is to be expected, and finding support from this key MA would be even more bullish (than being above $9K) in my opinion. Reaching $10K this week or not becomes less relevant right now. $8.8K and $8.5K* look like very reasonable levels of support, as does $8.2K (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221059.msg53714624#msg53714624) VPVR support: https://i.imgur.com/4HRrmqb.png (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/aV6MM1zp-BTCUSD-VPVR-Part-2-Volume-Point-of-Control-Now-Turned-Support/) Either way, prices are looking very strong 8) Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: ololajulo on January 31, 2020, 12:28:06 PM Our fate goes with FUD and FOMO walking hand-in-hand, this is why it is always advised not to rely on your emotions in this space, follow your gut and make your decision fast. If you are sure we are in bullrun you can still buy up cause you dont know how low it could dump, FUD and FOMO will always affect your decision now. Most strategies are not revealed in the market thats why a mentors with at least 2 cycle experience can help ones decision.
Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: 206 bones on January 31, 2020, 12:32:44 PM I am waiting for the pullback to get some more money in, I would be very happy if it goes to 7k before recovering but there are a freacking ton of buying orders at 9,2k, a ton at 9k and another ton at 8,8k, is very hard for me to imaging a pullback to 8-8,2k, in fact I have the order at 9075 and thinking if I should put it higher. But I am very new to bitcoin, more used to classical values. Wouldn't be going under 8,8k as surprising as seems to me? should I get used to randomly see that kind of pullbacks in bitcoin? the pullbacks I have seen this weeks weren't that strong. Wouldn't be going under 8,8k as surprising as seems to me? It will be very difficult to get under 8,8k & very unlikely to see 8,5k ever again. The support strength is increasing as we approach the halving. Every new low will be higher than the previews. 100 days remain, but! in the 60-45 days before its likely FOMO will very difficult to break with fear. Taking all this into account I see that we have a window of 40 days to keep accumulating at corrections. After this, the portfolios must be ready & just HODL for 2020 & 2021. should I get used to randomly see that kind of pullbacks in bitcoin? The behaviour depends on where you are positioned within the 4 year cycle. It's very complex to understand how it behaves. Study as much as you can. Crypto index helps. Stock-to-flow ratios. Sense the social media. I recomend to read "the bitcoin standard". Take a look of one of my topics: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5218553.0 Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Latviand on January 31, 2020, 12:49:38 PM It looks like it.... :o I'm actually not expecting any real dump again at this time , every price flunctuation now will still be around this present value and not lesser.This Moment is close to halving and we are leaving $8k for the next level. We may not have much puch till April but there will be steady increase till the halving in attained. There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. When this happens is easy for the price to come down, because it doesn't have any support whatsoever. Whales & good traders will continue to take advantage of FOMO so they can accumulate more. I think we will revisit 8k, but just under 9k. After this dip, it looks like we are going to be saying bye bye to 8k for ever. So, prepare those usd guys for this next dip $$ If you want to know more about my reasoning in this matter visit this topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221788.0 The majority of people believe this. I don't. We will see. There is still 100 days to halving. Not close enough. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: 206 bones on January 31, 2020, 01:43:40 PM How can you say that there's 100 days befofe halving? Can you please share a proof to this? Because I am not aware of such thing. All I know is that, it is normal for its market value to fall and rise since that is the nature of market volatility. I no longer anticipate dumps because as what happens everytime, it would be followed by a recovery although the price won't be back to its state before the downfall, but still, recovery is there, same thing with the uprise. As an investor you should know when to sell and when to hold. https://www.binance.vision/es/halving Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: target on January 31, 2020, 02:22:07 PM Not a serious dumps, it could go up easily like the normal higher highs since the start of the year. If you just bought back you may sell again at 9800 and then buy at 9600. I don't know if my analysis is correct but I made a sell order on 9800. A few satoshis at every hop is now worth saving. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: GuyFromBarcelona on January 31, 2020, 02:25:38 PM Not a serious dumps, it could go up easily like the normal higher highs since the start of the year. If you just bought back you may sell again at 9800 and then buy at 9600. I don't know if my analysis is correct but I made a sell order on 9800. A few satoshis at every hop is now worth saving. but you are risking not jumping back in on time just to scratch few satoshi Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: crwth on January 31, 2020, 02:34:06 PM There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. When this happens is easy for the price to come down, because it doesn't have any support whatsoever. I'm not an expert trader, but I'm curious as to why you think it's artificial? If you classify it that way, then the whole price thing on Bitcoin now is artificial and would bound to be negative?Whales & good traders will continue to take advantage of FOMO so they can accumulate more. Isn't that FOMO would lead to a higher price? It depends on the situation, I guess. When people are scared that Bitcoin will burst, they sell. When they are hopeful, they buy. After this dip, it looks like we are going to be saying bye bye to 8k for ever. Stop this non-sense without any facts to show. I do hope that the price of Bitcoin increases continuously, but that's not the reality we are in. For those who are interested in the topic he just posted, he mentioned on the linked thread that his evidence could be the stock to flow ratio. Which is increasing. I did a simple Google search and found an interesting site. Check the link here: https://digitalik.net/btc/ Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: STT on January 31, 2020, 02:43:02 PM Nah too predictable, bumps in the road can be part of the groundwork to both a rising trend and declines overall and thats all there is on the menu just a reset to the gains already seen. So far 2020 has been very positive, taking some of that back is par for the course.
https://i.imgur.com/M53BsEt.png Just at the top I see it falling below the rapid momentum of recent rise and historically we have a level of about 9250 it should stay above to keep rising. I think it can reset a greater amount then the sell already seen today if not confirming above 9250 as support. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: stompix on January 31, 2020, 03:07:06 PM It looks like it.... :o There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. 20k is very conservative. BTC could reach six figures this or next year. Please help me understand one thing How is 9k right now pure air but next year 100k at least is perfectly fine? What will happen till then, we split the atom, revive the kingdom of Arnor, we cure cancer? Furthermore, how is the price "pure air" at 9400 but not on 8800? Because subnitride burns at 9000 degrees? ;D ;D ;D It's definitely going to be interesting to see where this goes and how traders will react just before/after the halving because that does present a solid sell the news type of event. Might be worth getting into a short if I spot signs of weakness early enough, but all that will translate into is a huge opportunity to buy the dip and add to your hodl stack. Speaking of things that usually happen, you know that the price has a tendency to stay flat when people are expecting something total radical to happen, right? I wouldn't be surprised if it stays at this value for the first half of the year, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to the moon, and I will just utter an "uh" if it dips again right after the halving. Trying to predict things is nice, but when some people are trying to pinpoint the moves over a month period with an accuracy of 10$, it's really funny. based on a plethora of different indicators (ex: MACD, Ihimoku, Hash) How is that miner capitulation apocalypse going on? ;D Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: target on January 31, 2020, 03:16:52 PM Not a serious dumps, it could go up easily like the normal higher highs since the start of the year. If you just bought back you may sell again at 9800 and then buy at 9600. I don't know if my analysis is correct but I made a sell order on 9800. A few satoshis at every hop is now worth saving. but you are risking not jumping back in on time just to scratch few satoshi It happens countless times as long as it didn't yet touch the overbought level its still a good buy. I miss jumping back on time many times, there is no loss to that but miss chances. Many will do it being just a scalper with few $ capital. The dump today might easily bounce after all the hype is being hyped and the 2020 market is greener. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: coinfinger on January 31, 2020, 04:56:39 PM As per my analysis, the market is still looking more bullish, I seriously hope that the bulls will be able to defend the current level aggressively and prevent the bears from crashing the price. I have seen a few experts predict that the next price Bitcoin will be moving to will be $10,360.89 only if the bulls will be able to defend it.
But if it’s the opposite, then we should be looking forward to it crashing a bit to the next support level at $7,856.76. So, that means we should be looking forward to something above the $10,000 rate before the halving, and after the halving it will possibly go for a higher price than that. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Oceat on January 31, 2020, 07:01:15 PM If the main reason for this dump is because of the Bitcoin halving, welp that was too advanced I think since Bitcoin hasn't been gaining too much yet. Although it is quite bullish this time but that's not enough of a reason for Bitcoin to dump back to $8k. It might be possible but it won't happen right away after the halving because most of the time if there is a bull run coming, the price would start to drop drastically.
Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: dragonvslinux on January 31, 2020, 08:58:27 PM based on a plethora of different indicators (ex: MACD, Ihimoku, Hash) How is that miner capitulation apocalypse going on? ;D It's went incredibly well thanks for asking! Unsurprisingly given that it was based on relatively simple tried & tested mathematics ;) Gotta love those 1s and 0s :D $7245, December 27th 2019 (10) https://i.imgur.com/FVYfy4w.png (https://www.tradingview.com/x/UF4PNFCh/) Quote from: capriole_charles Buying during Miner Capitulation yields wonderful returns. In case you weren't aware, the miner capitulation (translation: drop in hash rate) ended (quite swiftly infact) and the Hash Ribbons indicator signaled an incredibly reliable buy signal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205261.0). Sorry if you weren't aware of the data science playing out, better luck next time, maybe. Then again, if everyone in the space understood these data science models, in-depth statistical analysis, as well as source code, then there wouldn't be any money to be made :P I appreciate you and others skepticism however, if it weren't for this I wouldn't of been so convinced by the probability and the source code's mathematics, but spent the time to study it enough to now be sitting in a nice leveraged position, 28% up so far (not including high leverage), but I'll obviously wait for thousand % returns before cashing out :P Quote from: Charles Edwards - Hash Ribbons & Bitcoin Bottoms https://miro.medium.com/max/975/1*RbOHezG6zFJAC8H83k-9Ww.jpeg (https://medium.com/capriole/hash-ribbons-bitcoin-bottoms-60da13095836) I hope others were able to benefit from the signal, given the 90% probability it would be accurate, which so far unless it breaks below around $6,200 looks pretty solid, which would then be questionable whether the post buy signal correction is deeper than the max draw-down, or whether the source code needs improving due to lack of accuracy. But then again, mathematics that has been reliable for 9 years sounds a lot like a familiar asset that I own, so no need to doubt that the value of 1 or 0 will change in the near future ;) For now though, all good, thanks for asking! I waited nearly a year to get a nice highly leveraged position to ride out for the next cycle. If it weren't for that indicator, I wouldn't be in one. I can hardly find a worse indicator other than the number of horses that have taken a dump on the track at Kempton. No, it was not what math calculated, don't bring math into this. Code: (Hash Ribbons indicator) //@version=4 Reference: https://www.tradingview.com/script/kT7jIvqv-Hash-Ribbons/ https://i.imgflip.com/2o7hzr.jpg Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: stompix on January 31, 2020, 09:32:57 PM In case you weren't aware, the miner capitulation (translation: drop in hash rate) ended (quite swiftly infact) and the Hash Ribbons indicator signaled an incredibly reliable buy signal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205261.0). Sorry if you weren't aware of the data science playing out, better luck next time, maybe. Then again, if everyone in the space understood these data science models, in-depth statistical analysis, as well as source code, then there wouldn't be any money to be made :P I'm still trying to figure out what type of English you're speaking when you using terms like "capitulation" for a 0.7% drop in hash rate. You were claiming mining capitulation at 12.7 T and we're at 15.6 T Oh, and stop trying to use long phrases to hide the fact you have nothing to say, if you try to copy nullius, you're starting with the wrong part, first find something to say and elaborate, don't elaborate because you have zero. And second, ..your prediction for the hash rate drop you claim to have predicted now...well..it happened after the only serious drop in the last year. Let's not even mention your other gem where you used your "math" to demonstrate that we won't be hitting 9k before the halving and we're going to stay at 7k. Or your gem from a month before when we would experience an "accumulation period" at around 4k before the halving, right? Or lets' go a month before when you were totally bullish and you claimed resistance at 8k? Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: dragonvslinux on January 31, 2020, 09:57:52 PM In case you weren't aware, the miner capitulation (translation: drop in hash rate) ended (quite swiftly infact) and the Hash Ribbons indicator signaled an incredibly reliable buy signal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205261.0). Sorry if you weren't aware of the data science playing out, better luck next time, maybe. Then again, if everyone in the space understood these data science models, in-depth statistical analysis, as well as source code, then there wouldn't be any money to be made :P Ouch, you seem very bitter ::) Did you not get your buys filled at lower levels or something? Better luck next time :P As a reminder; I didn't invent the indicator (that was Charles Edwards (https://twitter.com/caprioleio) as referenced). I didn't write the source code using the term "capitulation" (that was Charles Edwards (https://medium.com/capriole/hash-ribbons-bitcoin-bottoms-60da13095836) as referenced), and I don't care about your semantics regarding terminology either. This indicator is about mathematics (from Charles Edwards (https://www.tradingview.com/script/kT7jIvqv-Hash-Ribbons/)), not masturbating your linguistic skills. I take it as a compliment that you accuse me of making these predictions, rather than crediting the writer of the well-published source code, but ultimately it's factually wrong and you should probably stop doing it. And second, ..your prediction for the hash rate drop you claim to have predicted now...well..it happened after the only serious drop in the last year. Didn't predict anything, wasn't claiming to either. I published what the indicator had caluclated (mainly because no-one else was). Your welcome! Let's not even mention your other gem where you used your "math" to demonstrate that we won't be hitting 9k before the halving and we're going to stay at 7k. I never said Bitcoin wouldn't hit $9K, or stay at $7K, that's ridiculous. You won't ever hear we say Bitcoin WON'T go to anywhere between $0 and infinity. Quote me next time please or it's bullshit. For the record I still see that Bitcoin could be around $7K for the halving, as well as $10K. It's called having a diversity of opinions or being open-minded (it's healthy, you just try it sometime). Or your gem from a month before when we would experience an "accumulation period" at around 4k before the halving, right? I don't remember claiming accumulation around $4K, do you have a reference? If you're referring to my 10 Part series, with (obviously) 10 different outcomes, then this was my summarized prediction: That's a range between $2,500 and $6,875, with anywhere between 2-18 months of consolidation. ✔️ The tick implies it was correct, I was right. Boo hoo for you and your bruised ego. Or lets' go a month before when you were totally bullish and you claimed resistance at 8k? I don't even understand what you're saying here, there was resistance around $8K ::) Personally, I don't care if it's because you didn't btfd or "personal problems", etc, etc, you just seem very bitter, and I don't care for your reasons. Just at least put a quote of reference to your claims next time, otherwise it just sounds like untrustworthy slander. Finally, I don't claim to be right all the time either, there are enough times that I have been wrong, why don't you just reference these? Your being lazy. I'm happy being right a minimum of 51% of time for 2:1 reward:risk trades, nothing else is needed thanks (fyi that's the minimum required probability to being a successful trader or investor). Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: stompix on January 31, 2020, 10:20:42 PM otherwise it just sounds like untrustworthy slander. Sue me just like I will sue you from calling me bitter when I'm full oh chocolate after my cousin's party:P Stop trying to wage a war when there is none, I'm just making fun of how you think that by making a hundred assumptions a month you will finally hit one and your work won't be in vain! Didn't predict anything, wasn't claiming to either. Common, stop the bs. Just because you're editing your titles doesn't make things go away https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205261.msg53202274#msg53202274 Hash Ribbons Indicator confirms 10th buy signal in 9 years @ $7245 Remember what the original title was? Quote Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800? When you use the term "Is Here" with capital letters you are claiming something! And when you're changing your topic titles because .... you're bitter your prediction was wrong....well, I like you a bit so I'm not going to use that word! For the record I still see that Bitcoin could be around $7K for the halving, as well as $10K. It's called having a diversity of opinions or being open-minded (it's healthy, you just try it sometime). Nope, it's not healthy at all, it's called avoiding reality by making a hundred predictions so that you can nail one and say you're right. Try some chocolate, not healthy either but at least it's a bulletproof solution to make you feel better. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: hirngespenst on January 31, 2020, 10:37:31 PM I have the same feeling that the Bitcoin price will be dumped before the next jump as it did not hit the target 9600 USD! But if it continues to hold the 9K zone strongly, then I feel the price will not go to 8K USD again before the halving! Today I read 2 articles that Bitcoin price was growing because of coronavirus effect! So, there is a possibility to see Bitcoin at 10K USD within February!
Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: exstasie on January 31, 2020, 10:44:26 PM An orderly pull back to the 200 Day MA (around $8900) at a minimum is to be expected, and finding support from this key MA would be even more bullish (than being above $9K) in my opinion. That's my ideal bullish scenario, the "time correction" I was talking about. Confirming the 200-day MA as support would be a conventional and straightforward bullish confirmation that would be difficult to ignore. Either way, prices are looking very strong 8) Agreed. I just think we need to mentally prepare for the possibility of a deep (50%+ retracement) pullback. In Wave 2 pullbacks, the psychology is often "bull trap over, new lows coming!" Then we get a higher low followed by bullish continuation..... Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: dragonvslinux on January 31, 2020, 10:44:56 PM otherwise it just sounds like untrustworthy slander. Sue me just like I will sue you from calling me bitter when I'm full oh chocolate after my cousin's party:P No-one is sueing anyone, slander isn't anything to do with the law. Even if it's interesting that you instinctively assume I mean something law related: "make false and damaging statements about (someone)." Stop trying to wage a war when there is none, I'm just making fun of how you think that by making a hundred assumptions a month you will finally hit one and your work won't be in vain! Come off it, you've been trolling me for months now. I'm OK with it, if my TA "gets to people" I know must be doing something right. Didn't predict anything, wasn't claiming to either. Common, stop the bs. Just because you're editing your titles doesn't make things go away https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205261.msg53202274#msg53202274 Hash Ribbons Indicator confirms 10th buy signal in 9 years @ $7245 Remember what the original title was? Quote Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800? Yeh of course I remember the original title, it's still referenced in the post for transparency sake (click on the chart referenced in original OP). I didn't want it to "go away", you're insinuating that I tried to hide it, which is far from the truth. I have no interest in hiding my predictions that were inaccurate, especially if they resulted in no losses and was a good short entry (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205261.msg53267289#msg53267289) none the less, even if not on the time-frame I was looking for (macro/Weekly). I think you should try harder pointing to my incorrect TA than a break-even stop loss being triggered though, just a suggestion. There's worse than that, you're being lazy again. PS - I still think the price could of gone to $3,800 with further capitulation and it could still happen in the near future :o When you use the term "Is Here" with capital letters you are claiming something! And when you're changing your topic titles because .... you're bitter your prediction was wrong....well, I like you a bit so I'm not going to use that word! Again, I was referencing the indicator, from Charles Edwards. You really need to PM Charles on twitter if these semantics are getting you down. I changed the title because I wasn't going to create a second topic within such a short period of time based on Hash Ribbons, I wanted it to be in the same place, so that others could also see my previous incorrect prediction of a deeper capitulation that what did occur. For the record I still see that Bitcoin could be around $7K for the halving, as well as $10K. It's called having a diversity of opinions or being open-minded (it's healthy, you just try it sometime). Nope, it's not healthy at all, it's called avoiding reality by making a hundred predictions so that you can nail one and say you're right. I like to see all the possible outcomes, what can I say. It gives me a better understanding of the paths the market can take (which is often infinite). You say that I'm right 1 out of 100 times, I'm not going to bother arguing with you, my trading account tells me otherwise, people find value in my TA that is more accurate than not, that's all that matters to me. Try some chocolate, not healthy either but at least it's a bulletproof solution to make you feel better. Mate I love chocolate, I'm literally an addict. I usually eat it while doing my art & design style TA :D Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: dragonvslinux on January 31, 2020, 10:54:25 PM An orderly pull back to the 200 Day MA (around $8900) at a minimum is to be expected, and finding support from this key MA would be even more bullish (than being above $9K) in my opinion. That's my ideal bullish scenario, the "time correction" I was talking about. Confirming the 200-day MA as support would be a conventional and straightforward bullish confirmation that would be difficult to ignore. Indeed 8) Either way, prices are looking very strong 8) Agreed. I just think we need to mentally prepare for the possibility of a deep (50%+ retracement) pullback. In Wave 2 pullbacks, the psychology is often "bull trap over, new lows coming!" Then we get a higher low followed by bullish continuation..... What? Since when did you consider 50%+ retracements in bull markets? That worries me :-\ Maybe since forever actually thinking about it, considering you didn't consider the "mini-bear" as being a bear market, which is logical on reflection and with some hindsight. I thought we were long done with that though. I'm more of the opinion that spending too long below the 200 Week MA would more likely lead to sub $3K, than support from the $4K level. We'd find support from $4K no doubt, but I find it hard to believe we'd break $5-5.5K after that, instead turning the 200 Week MA into resistance and going considerably lower as a consequence. All theoretical obviously, but I'm more of the opinion that a 50% retracement (full miner capitulation) would be relatively fatal at current prices. Falling to the 200 Week MA maybe, possibly, but not below anymore. I ruled that out sometime ago when these fractals starting to drift away from this possibility. But obviously this is just my interpretation. Unless it's a wick, wicks are fine and bullish. They are encouraged :D Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Capt00 on January 31, 2020, 11:31:17 PM I don't if there is a reason why we have to face a huge dump again. Actually, we are started to so move high slowly though volatility is still there, dump and pumps are inevitable but can't see any reason for its strong dumps rather than halving that raise the price high. Even people would say that dumps will come in the coming days, well I'm not worried and I am preferred for anything that will happen in the next days. And I am not thinking off for the market but its all been positive as it looks nowadays.
Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: stompix on January 31, 2020, 11:32:20 PM Come off it, you've been trolling me for months now. I'm OK with it, if my TA "gets to people" I know must be doing something right. Common, don't be like that, I don't remember discussing things with you in more than two topics I doubt I'm anywhere near what others do to you :P. And frankly, we wouldn't have had any conversation it it wasn't for the mining part in your topic, with the price you can do your fancy graphs, average 60 days 120 days lines and curves and balloons I don't care, that's what speculation is for. With mining, you touched a nerve, mining is about how much your bill is and how much hash you get for that, miners must follow the price, the price didn't give a damn about my bills :P I have no interest in hiding my predictions that were inaccurate, But you just said you... Didn't predict anything, wasn't claiming to either. Ok, I'll stop here because it might start to look like I'm really trying to pick on you. Just stay out of hashing correlations and we can be friends! Leaving our quarrel aside, I still wanna hear from the OP why is 9.5k full of air right now but 100k at least easy doable in 12 months. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: dragonvslinux on February 01, 2020, 12:04:09 AM With mining, you touched a nerve, mining is about how much your bill is and how much hash you get for that, miners must follow the price, the price didn't give a damn about my bills :P Thanks for explaining at least, it does make a lot more sense. Is everyone this nervous in the mining industry about the price crashing? It would at least explain the routine capitulations from a fundamental standpoint, but probably this a discussion for a different topic. I'm actually very curious though on the fundamentals behind these capitulations. I have no interest in hiding my predictions that were inaccurate, [quote extended] especially if they resulted in no losses and was a good short entry (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205261.msg53267289#msg53267289) none the less, even if not on the time-frame I was looking for (macro/Weekly). But you just said you... Didn't predict anything, wasn't claiming to either. Ok, I'll stop here because it might start to look like I'm really trying to pick on you. Don't worry it doesn't, it makes you look like either dumb, lazy, simply can't read, and/or continuing to try and slander my analysis (which you're welcome to try and do by the way). To clarify: I didn't "predict" $3,800, I questioned it with a I'm posting this not necessarily because I believe it will happen, but for educational purposes The extrapolated price comes from the "2018 miner capitulation" that caused the price to drop 50%. Will we go back to $3,800? Unlikely, but clearly this is possible if the capitulation is as aggressive as 2018. Just stay out of hashing correlations and we can be friends! No can do I'm afraid, feel free to pick on me the next time I reference the next miner capitulation, sometime later this year I imagine post-havling. 1. I don't do what people tell me to do (as I don't need to). 2. I will always provide technical analysis for education purposes. 3. I'm not looking for friends, only information, analysis and data, sorry. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: STT on February 01, 2020, 03:46:05 AM I would be surprised at a harsh pullback right now, I reckon 8000 is about the fair or normal kind of pullback that might occur (thats not harsh imo) and people would be thrown off by that and selling into what probably becomes support at that point. I dont rule out any lower because I've still not defined this move as a proper regular channel or rising trend, I think its just broken some of the (regular) selling and we'll see if that develops.
https://i.imgur.com/8xSIYAg.png Right now I dont think its negative at all, an old chart has these recent lows as possible support. My general rule is if we stay above a rough weekly average then its got alot of momentum and generally its going to be a pain to short or express any negative trade until that 'bounce' in its step is removed. 3800 would be a back breaker (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypot3CYECwE), off the scale of possible for most which is where particpants or speculators at least are shed. Depends also over what time period but most people are leaning into 2020 like its a special year, hence that'd be painful I imagine. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: el kaka22 on February 01, 2020, 04:02:39 AM It all depends on how the price reacts to reaching resistance. We have reached the peak we could reach without going to skyrocketing, this price is literally the last seconds of price not jumping insanely high if it is going to stay here. So long story short, either we are going to be $10k+ easily in the following days or we will go down under $9k and maybe even closer to $8k itself, we don't know which one will happen.
If anyone knew which one would happen, they would just react accordingly and either sell or buy bitcoin to position themselves, unfortunately we are not that type of people and all we can do is "assume" what it will do, which is far from actually knowing what it will do but only making up guesses about it. I personally still think it will go up, however I wouldn't be shocked if it went down neither. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: adaseb on February 01, 2020, 05:27:03 AM I am currently short BTC and got a stop loss at $9800 and if this stop actually hits, I would say we are headed straight for the $13.8K and $20K recent all time highs.
Why? its because it would be a weekly close with a higher high from that Xi pump we got a few months back. However with the huge open interest and huge funding rate and how everybody is "crazy bullish" at the moment, I can see a huge cascade of long liquidations bring us under $9K very quickly within a few minutes. However so far most of the dumps are getting bought it. However when OI is this large, usually it means a swift move one direction or another. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: buwaytress on February 01, 2020, 09:33:43 AM Please help me understand one thing How is 9k right now pure air but next year 100k at least is perfectly fine? What will happen till then, we split the atom, revive the kingdom of Arnor, we cure cancer? Apparently, the Illuminati is behind why we haven't split the atom (wait, haven't we?), revived Arnor or Camelot, or cured cancer (the tears of Chuck Norris I believe is the cure and you know, he never cries). But yeah. I think the more I read some of the posters here the more I wonder if they're really just clacking on their keyboards pulling stuff out of their ass. Back on point though, I honestly thought I'd wake up today and see prices dip below 9k again. So far so strong! Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: hello_good_sir on February 01, 2020, 10:04:42 AM I honestly don't see a sizable dump coming any time soon.
There's very little FOMO in the market right now anyway. The previous dump down from 9.1k to 8.2k was already extremely sizable and wiped out a lot of the weak hands that were within the market. The overall uptrend is clear - we are going for the $10k resistance now, and once that is breached, expect a ton of FOMO and rallies. Only after that occurs do I expect big corrections. Certainly not right now, when the $7k price floor is already well established, and there is very little downward pressure on price. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: wiss19 on February 01, 2020, 10:14:55 AM It looks like it.... :o Small dump can be seen on the market but it would not affect the current bullish trend.There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. When this happens is easy for the price to come down, because it doesn't have any support whatsoever. Whales & good traders will continue to take advantage of FOMO so they can accumulate more. I think we will revisit 8k, but just under 9k. After this dip, it looks like we are going to be saying bye bye to 8k for ever. So, prepare those usd guys for this next dip $$ If you want to know more about my reasoning on this matter visit this topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221788.0 Note: It's difficult to predict when is going to happen, but it's highly probable it will. We are about to enter the bull markets and before we could enter the bull markets, a bearish sign is always necessary. So this is the bearish sign. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: LogitechMouse on February 01, 2020, 10:30:24 AM We must stay above the $9200 price to remain bullish since it is the support right now for the short term.
TBH, I'm also expecting for a dump in the next few days but it will not just be a simple dump. It will be a healthy correction and since the halving is approaching, investors think that it will rise in the next few weeks and they will be FOMO'ed causing the price to rise. Whatever happens to Bitcoin in the next few months, I'm still ready for it. It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will hold. ;D ;D Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Smitty Werben Man Jensen on February 01, 2020, 11:49:58 AM Even though dump happened, Bitcoin is still on the bull trend, don't worry, according to EMA 100 Bitcoin support is at $ 9200, I hope it won't be achieved, but if Bitcoin drops below $ 9200, be careful because according to EMA 100 on TF 1 day the price of support is there at $ 8200, use stop lose
Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: sunsilk on February 01, 2020, 11:55:41 AM Your TA is good and I like it when you have said it's just under $9k and we'll never see $8k again.
It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will hold. ;D ;D Why not buy if it goes down? But well yeah, this is the decision that we'll ever do whether it goes high or down a bit. I guess everyone has already foreseeing the higher price that they are about to sell. So, this possible revisit to $8k is going to be nothing for longs.Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: dragonvslinux on February 01, 2020, 01:01:09 PM I am currently short BTC and got a stop loss at $9800 and if this stop actually hits, I would say we are headed straight for the $13.8K and $20K recent all time highs. Why? its because it would be a weekly close with a higher high from that Xi pump we got a few months back. However with the huge open interest and huge funding rate and how everybody is "crazy bullish" at the moment, I can see a huge cascade of long liquidations bring us under $9K very quickly within a few minutes. However so far most of the dumps are getting bought it. However when OI is this large, usually it means a swift move one direction or another. Good analysis, nice position, you're a lot braver than me :P I agree that breaking below $9K would likely lead to quite a few liquidations from some not-so-smart traders who have overlooked the likelihood of finding support (even if temporary) around $8.9K where the 200 Day MA is. Persaonlly, my shorts will trigger on a break of $9.2K (as more of a swing trade), but I'd be keeping a very tight stop loss on the basis of likely bouncing back to re-test this old support as new resistance. I'm aware of how risky this trade is, hence it'd only be a hedge against how long I am right now. Also think your right about if we break above $9800 we would likely go a lot higher, it's hard to tell how far imo, but quite far probably - at least $11.5K-$12K before a decent sized pull-back. Personally I'd be longing above $9600, rather than $9800, but opening a long isn't quite the same as backing out of a short I guess. We must stay above the $9200 price to remain bullish since it is the support right now for the short term. TBH, I'm also expecting for a dump in the next few days but it will not just be a simple dump. It will be a healthy correction and since the halving is approaching, investors think that it will rise in the next few weeks and they will be FOMO'ed causing the price to rise. Whatever happens to Bitcoin in the next few months, I'm still ready for it. It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will hold. ;D ;D Likewise regarding $9.2K, this is the level I'm watching, while expecting some sort of pull-back soon enough, whether it comes from current prices or higher levels. I also think any dip will likely get bought up quite quickly, but this is a not-yet-proven theory imo. Your TA is good and I like it when you have said it's just under $9k and we'll never see $8k again. It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will hold. ;D ;D Why not buy if it goes down?Apart from DCA, I don't think I'd be in a hurry to be entering anymore long positions above $7K, not that I would be selling either. I'll leave that opportunity to newer investors wanting to enter the market who have been a lot more patient than me (or older who forgot to buy the dip for that matter). Because ultimately if these new/old investors don't step up to buy $8K levels, because they also bought enough of $6-7K, then who will buy? Like many, I don't have a problem falling back down to $6-7K to accumulate more. After all, although I think the 200 Day MA has a good chance of holding, as does the $8K level, if we do get rejected by a lower high ($9.5K, after $10.5K, $12K, $14K), then it would suggest a lower low (by simple macro analysis), because it was still indicate bearish market pressure. Obviously there's enough to show the bullish sentiment, but sometimes the bearish picture can fud any bullish sentiment. Remember $10.5K lower high? To me, this showed that enough investors had bought the $7-8K range amd demand had been satisfied, hence falling lower afterwards. The fact that we broke the bear channel is undoubtedly bullish, but without the higher high, we could still make new lows - or equal lows to $6K levels just as likely. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: TheGreatPython on February 01, 2020, 03:39:21 PM We must stay above the $9200 price to remain bullish since it is the support right now for the short term. But this statement might not be same for me. I would short if the price goes down and would long if the price goes up so basically there are profits waiting for me on both the directions so honestly speaking, I might not actually care even if there is a dump in the markets. The price have already been above $9500 for some while which was once a resistance level and crossing that resistance makes it more possible for bitcoins to reach another resistance which is $9800.TBH, I'm also expecting for a dump in the next few days but it will not just be a simple dump. It will be a healthy correction and since the halving is approaching, investors think that it will rise in the next few weeks and they will be FOMO'ed causing the price to rise. Whatever happens to Bitcoin in the next few months, I'm still ready for it. It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will hold. ;D ;D Yes, a small dump might show up before the journey to $9800 and it might be the point where most of the whales can accumulate for short or midterm profits. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: redsun114 on February 01, 2020, 03:46:44 PM It looks like it.... :o Charts are showing moving up and down to a greater extend which is making it more difficult to predict the supports and resistances. The price might touch down to $8000 but it might also bring a bearish trend in the markets.There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. When this happens is easy for the price to come down, because it doesn't have any support whatsoever. Whales & good traders will continue to take advantage of FOMO so they can accumulate more. I think we will revisit 8k, but just under 9k. After this dip, it looks like we are going to be saying bye bye to 8k for ever. So, prepare those usd guys for this next dip $$ If you want to know more about my reasoning on this matter visit this topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221788.0 Note: It's difficult to predict when is going to happen, but it's highly probable it will. The price might continue dropping until $8500 which might make a lot of traders panic sell their coins hoping there would be some more dump so that they can accumulate accordingly but this might reverse from that point and we might experience a continuous pump which might end up above $10,000 which for sure would be the start to the bullish trend. Dump might be expected before the price could pump as far as my knowledge and experience prompts me. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: exstasie on February 01, 2020, 07:55:58 PM Agreed. I just think we need to mentally prepare for the possibility of a deep (50%+ retracement) pullback. In Wave 2 pullbacks, the psychology is often "bull trap over, new lows coming!" Then we get a higher low followed by bullish continuation..... What? Since when did you consider 50%+ retracements in bull markets? That worries me :-\ Maybe since forever actually thinking about it, considering you didn't consider the "mini-bear" as being a bear market, which is logical on reflection and with some hindsight. I thought we were long done with that though. I'm more of the opinion that spending too long below the 200 Week MA would more likely lead to sub $3K, than support from the $4K level.Oh I didn't mean to imply going anywhere near the 200-week MA, let alone below. I didn't mean a 50% drop in price, just a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous wave. Like this: https://i.imgur.com/Ot9EeTq.png Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: btc_angela on February 01, 2020, 10:42:56 PM Even though dump happened, Bitcoin is still on the bull trend, don't worry, according to EMA 100 Bitcoin support is at $ 9200, I hope it won't be achieved, but if Bitcoin drops below $ 9200, be careful because according to EMA 100 on TF 1 day the price of support is there at $ 8200, use stop lose Price is still holding up @$9200-$9400, so there's no dump as of the moment. But if the price goes down to $8k levels again, (which I have been waiting) then I will definitely jump in to reenter my position again. The hardest decision is that what if the price didn't go that level, I don't want to buy at the 5 digit zone. So it's going to be a dilemma on my part, lol. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Reid on February 02, 2020, 03:58:35 AM Even though dump happened, Bitcoin is still on the bull trend, don't worry, according to EMA 100 Bitcoin support is at $ 9200, I hope it won't be achieved, but if Bitcoin drops below $ 9200, be careful because according to EMA 100 on TF 1 day the price of support is there at $ 8200, use stop lose Price is still holding up @$9200-$9400, so there's no dump as of the moment. But if the price goes down to $8k levels again, (which I have been waiting) then I will definitely jump in to reenter my position again. The hardest decision is that what if the price didn't go that level, I don't want to buy at the 5 digit zone. So it's going to be a dilemma on my part, lol. I won't either. I think I am done with buying for now. Just monitoring the price to where it might go. Difficult to find the bottom now. The FOMO seems to never stop as of now which is a good thing. Maybe they should also stay afterwards. It is not just profits as always. Plus, there is the halving which is getting near. This month of February might really be a big deal if most of the buyers thinks the same like us. Slow movement up but it is real. So there will be no correction that will happen. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: STT on February 02, 2020, 04:11:39 AM Weekend prices dont matter :p I'm probably wrong to say that but thats how I feel lol but in any case the prices on the strongest volume are what count like bricks in a wall, the rest is just some mortar to hold it together but its very much about finding the most significant prices and do these really occur on sleepy saturday and sunday. Obviously the world is large and turning, the end of sunday is actually monday really and ditto saturday is trimmed or in my view that is the picture.
Quote going anywhere near the 200-week MA Yea that'd be epic, always possible but what pushes the needle this far is a big if. 200 day I first read that as and of course I think we will re test this and need confirmation before a greater rise. Every bull run needs a clear path and bears will be gored or possibly win, we shall see. 9050 is first call when/if 9200 goes and I might try small short but as usual I probably would have been smart to enter nearer to 10k as it will waver before it moves properly Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: pooya87 on February 02, 2020, 04:14:47 AM We must stay above the $9200 price to remain bullish since it is the support right now for the short term. But this statement might not be same for me. I would short if the price goes down and would long if the price goes up so basically there are profits waiting for me on both the directions so honestly speaking, I might not actually care even if there is a dump in the markets. The price have already been above $9500 for some while which was once a resistance level and crossing that resistance makes it more possible for bitcoins to reach another resistance which is $9800.TBH, I'm also expecting for a dump in the next few days but it will not just be a simple dump. It will be a healthy correction and since the halving is approaching, investors think that it will rise in the next few weeks and they will be FOMO'ed causing the price to rise. Whatever happens to Bitcoin in the next few months, I'm still ready for it. It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will hold. ;D ;D Yes, a small dump might show up before the journey to $9800 and it might be the point where most of the whales can accumulate for short or midterm profits. you can't do both because you have to make your move before the market move happens. for example you can't wait until a drop happens then start shorting bitcoin, by that time it would be way too late since the drop is already over and everyone else has shorted and you will start shorting while price is recovering and going back up. same thing for when price goes up. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Japinat on February 02, 2020, 04:18:16 AM Today bitcoin is -2% but the good news is it stayed at $9,000.
I am assuming that this is just a small correction prior to another pump, if there's a possible dump that would happen in the next few days, I am not expecting a serious dump, let's just follow the short trend this year, and so far, there's no heavy dump, instead a good start that until now makes the market still bullish. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: ballerin and giroud on February 02, 2020, 06:21:50 AM Even though dump happened, Bitcoin is still on the bull trend, don't worry, according to EMA 100 Bitcoin support is at $ 9200, I hope it won't be achieved, but if Bitcoin drops below $ 9200, be careful because according to EMA 100 on TF 1 day the price of support is there at $ 8200, use stop lose The technical analyst is not a benchmark it will be wrong sometimes. But seeing this sentiment right now bitcoin will be up again, don't you remember bitcoin will meet halving and it could be make as a reason for bitcoin up again. And if we will see the prire movement day by day bitcoin always in a good trend, up drastically and didn't fall drastically it may need several dump before its price comeback to up. This movement price will be like the movement price 2017 ago, you may know about it and the investor just have a though that bitcoin will up and up more than that. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: justdimin on February 02, 2020, 02:33:23 PM If the price actually dumps it is important to know that what will be the reaction of people. Unfortunately we are such a big massive and totally different group of people in the bitcoin world that we have no idea what will actually happen.
I personally hope that we will move towards recovering after the fall (even if the fall ever happens) instead of trying to stay at that low level. Remember just recently we actually went from $7.5k levels to under $7k for a while and was around $6.9k levels and everyone was afraid that it will go even further down, some even said we are going towards $3.5k once again like we used to did, however we recovered very well with above $9k levels, now if we ever have another fall, I want that exact thing, at least I hope something like that to happen. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: ethereumhunter on February 02, 2020, 02:36:16 PM This weekend, I don't watch the market, and I think I will be back to the market tomorrow because usually, the market will make good movements in the next day. And I see that yesterday, bitcoin price is on a green candle, so I check with fast at the market today, and I am back to see the green candle again in the market, so I hope tomorrow, the green candle still appears at the market. But I know that it's not guaranteed to expect the same situation now because bitcoin price still moving up and down.
Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: sunsilk on February 02, 2020, 07:04:08 PM Your TA is good and I like it when you have said it's just under $9k and we'll never see $8k again. It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will hold. ;D ;D Why not buy if it goes down?Apart from DCA, I don't think I'd be in a hurry to be entering anymore long positions above $7K, not that I would be selling either. I'll leave that opportunity to newer investors wanting to enter the market who have been a lot more patient than me (or older who forgot to buy the dip for that matter). Because ultimately if these new/old investors don't step up to buy $8K levels, because they also bought enough of $6-7K, then who will buy? Like many, I don't have a problem falling back down to $6-7K to accumulate more. After all, although I think the 200 Day MA has a good chance of holding, as does the $8K level, if we do get rejected by a lower high ($9.5K, after $10.5K, $12K, $14K), then it would suggest a lower low (by simple macro analysis), because it was still indicate bearish market pressure. Obviously there's enough to show the bullish sentiment, but sometimes the bearish picture can fud any bullish sentiment. Remember $10.5K lower high? To me, this showed that enough investors had bought the $7-8K range amd demand had been satisfied, hence falling lower afterwards. The fact that we broke the bear channel is undoubtedly bullish, but without the higher high, we could still make new lows - or equal lows to $6K levels just as likely. I would be certain to think and wait until we see the falling lower. I guess we just have to be prepare whenever it does show again at that manner. But as long as it doesn't decrease, we should have maintain our positions until we see the both side. The possible bullish indicator for the price you have given or the lower one. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: hahay on February 02, 2020, 08:00:28 PM This weekend, I don't watch the market, and I think I will be back to the market tomorrow because usually, the market will make good movements in the next day. And I see that yesterday, bitcoin price is on a green candle, so I check with fast at the market today, and I am back to see the green candle again in the market, so I hope tomorrow, the green candle still appears at the market. But I know that it's not guaranteed to expect the same situation now because bitcoin price still moving up and down. If the green candle happened the previous day then the next day that usually happens is the red candle, but what is happening now is very different because the green candle can last for several days as it did recently and I am also sure that positive movements like this will continue until tomorrow but can't be sure whether this will continue until the end of the quarter, so prepare yourself if you want to buy because the price is sure to be dipped at any time.Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: criza on February 04, 2020, 10:29:56 AM For me, the price of Bitcoin would not dump again to its price in $8,000. It is possible for its price to decrease from $9,300 but, I think it would not be under $9,000, it would survive and will retain its price minimum is in $9K and would increase in the coming days ranging above the $9k value and would break the $9,400 barrier.
Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: 206 bones on February 04, 2020, 12:16:20 PM It looks like it.... :o There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. 20k is very conservative. BTC could reach six figures this or next year. Please help me understand one thing How is 9k right now pure air but next year 100k at least is perfectly fine? What will happen till then, we split the atom, revive the kingdom of Arnor, we cure cancer? Furthermore, how is the price "pure air" at 9400 but not on 8800? Because subnitride burns at 9000 degrees? ;D ;D ;D It's definitely going to be interesting to see where this goes and how traders will react just before/after the halving because that does present a solid sell the news type of event. Might be worth getting into a short if I spot signs of weakness early enough, but all that will translate into is a huge opportunity to buy the dip and add to your hodl stack. Speaking of things that usually happen, you know that the price has a tendency to stay flat when people are expecting something total radical to happen, right? I wouldn't be surprised if it stays at this value for the first half of the year, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to the moon, and I will just utter an "uh" if it dips again right after the halving. Trying to predict things is nice, but when some people are trying to pinpoint the moves over a month period with an accuracy of 10$, it's really funny. based on a plethora of different indicators (ex: MACD, Ihimoku, Hash) How is that miner capitulation apocalypse going on? ;D Hey there! Read this topic :D https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5218553.0 I explain all logic that support my forecasts. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Finestream on February 04, 2020, 12:32:39 PM For me, the price of Bitcoin would not dump again to its price in $8,000. It is possible for its price to decrease from $9,300 but, I think it would not be under $9,000, it would survive and will retain its price minimum is in $9K and would increase in the coming days ranging above the $9k value and would break the $9,400 barrier. Bitcoin price is close to dropping below $9,000 again. 24 hours low was 9108 per https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, so another dump could push the price t drop further, we can't really say because bitcoin has been so volatile so it could drop again, but I believe it would bounce back and make a new high this month, with this kind of trend if it continue, $10,000 will be achieve soon although sudden dump is possible. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: Quidat on February 04, 2020, 12:50:23 PM For me, the price of Bitcoin would not dump again to its price in $8,000. It is possible for its price to decrease from $9,300 but, I think it would not be under $9,000, it would survive and will retain its price minimum is in $9K and would increase in the coming days ranging above the $9k value and would break the $9,400 barrier. Bitcoin price is close to dropping below $9,000 again. 24 hours low was 9108 per https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, so another dump could push the price t drop further, we can't really say because bitcoin has been so volatile so it could drop again, but I believe it would bounce back and make a new high this month, with this kind of trend if it continue, $10,000 will be achieve soon although sudden dump is possible. I dont know why do people consider it as a dump. Moving 1-2% is just a typical stuff here on crypto.For now btc price is holding above 9k and i dont see for it to dropped lower than that but still not an assurance because anytime it can dropped in a blink of an eye.We are already approaching halving event and it seems it would really touch 5 digit price anytime soon as we are heading nearer.If incase theres a dump then we should ready our stashes to buy back. Title: Re: I see a dump approaching, do you? Post by: STT on February 04, 2020, 12:50:45 PM Here you go dump watchers, stole my nephews best crayons for a sketch. Put down your scythe for a second, take off the grim reaper hoodie as its possible we are within or forming something of a bullish channel.
This is only a rough idea, I'm not especially happy with the regular boundary but I dont see enough info for weekly bars for the moment. I think a sell off is within reasonable odds just down a relatively small amount but if we stay within a channel like this it can give us another higher high 10k or beyond. Thats enough of a bounce and close of short attempts, etc. https://i.imgur.com/8rqEUegg.png A break of this trend however would be nice to capture on the downside, obviously the trick is to find the snake and ladders moments. |
