Bitcoin Forum

Just remember that folks.

The Bitcoin market was bullish before the two previous halvings (hence no clear correlation in my humble opinion). But if you believe there is a correlation then it's important to consider other indicators, and not the halving alone.

When you check the history of Bitcoin price, you will notice there was a clear bullish trend before the two halvings occurred.

I am in the minority here but I doubt this year will be bullish, the trend is still bearish, it has been bearish since we were rejected below 14k last summer.

Watch out for March-April, if they are still bearish months, there is no way IMO the price will skyrocket this year. The important prices here are 10.5k (very strong resistance) and 14k. Before we break these prices again there will be no uptrend.

I am not your financial adviser. Just my opinion  :P

Yeah there's a high chance we've either maxxed out already for the year I'd you look at the last two halvings. It's probably good from this point for the rest of the year if we remain at $10k and don't fall further after there's no rally post run (some of retail may be expecting that)..

I think in 2016, we moved to about $500 in the early months of the year and then just stayed there for quite a while during and after the halving...

I agree with your points... and besides, everyone is expecting that the price goes to the moon and usually this means that the price will not go our way... most people are counting with a bull run this year, and this may not happen at all... prices are not showing momentum and the bear is still here...
I was hopping to cross the 10.5k barrier this month, but that does not seem to be happening...

I might not pay attention to that because my goal is to hold bitcoin until halving is finished. If there is a bear market in March-April, it will be an opportunity for those who want to invest more. however, I am a person who believes that before halving, the price of bitcoin will rise. at the moment the price of bitcoin may go down, but at the beginning of March, I'm pretty sure the price will recover and return to exceed the price of $ 10,000.

i don't really see it that way, the trend still looks pretty bullish to me. and if you look at the bigger picture i'm sure you can see it too.
the trend begins from December 2018 when the accumulation starts at $3200 and price stays down and stable with a high volume for a couple of months. then we officially enter the bull market that slowly brings the price up then there are some sudden jumps that lead to a mini-bubble that needs to pop and be corrected. that is the $13880 in June and then we had the correction of that. but a correction doesn't mean "bear market" a correction is a sign of a healthy bull market instead.

It's 3 months away. Compared to last time, we're ~ April 2016. Why do you think BTC was in a bull market then, but not now? Did you miss the 350% rally last year? And now we're re-approaching those highs.

If it looks like a duck....


If you're in the minority, it's a very big minority and bull/bear sentiment is mixed. I'm seeing plenty of bear analysis in my circles and the Fear & Greed index is "fearful" at 41: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

Exstasie.... bossian is just a troll-ish guy, thinking BTC will come out only in 2024 or something.....

He has some kind of TA that only a meth addict would show in the open ...

Means that the market is currently in a correction where a few weeks before it has experienced continuous pumping or bullish now, in correction what is possible this will continue because the current downward trend is high enough to be honest I am quite worried that bitcoin will not return to $ 10,000 again.
If panic like this continues then there is no good but there will only be doubt to be sold at cheap prices even though this is the right correction to buy at a lower price.

Bitcoin is still bullish, but today it seems like it's slowly going down and it might hit $8K+ soon.
The 24 hours low per Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT) is 9040, that's very close to going down to $8K.

let's see if the price will bounce back, but I still believe its gonna be bullish before the halving, price should be higher than $10K IMO.

The trend is still bearish? What are you looking at? Are you sure you are talking about bitcoin? We started the year at $7k price and now we are at $9k, just because we moved from $10k to $9k doesn't negate the whole fact that we moved from $7k to this place, we are certainly not in a bearish sentiment at all.

Check the forums if you want, you will see there are a lot more messages and topics about how bitcoin will be $20k+ then topics about bearish drops in numbers. Think whatever you want to think about the price of bitcoin in the future, that is something we can't predict correctly because we can't see the future, but when you start to talk about the past we have the data and charts about the past in order to say what really happened or didn't happen and there was definitely no bearish and there is currently no bearish sentiment in the markets.

I think the crypto market is currently bearish where the whole bull has been exhausted because a few months ago the increase continued to increase in bitcoin and other altcoins, now there has been a severe decline, meaning that the bearish has occurred where we have to read situations like this even I predict bitcoin could fall again to $ 8,000 in the near future is this another factor or just a trend?

If it's like this then bitcoin will have more difficulty touching $ 10,000 because I see that the movement is slow enough for this year to rise.

Many have similar expectations but the question is if this is really going to happen. Many expected bull run right at the begininig of this year, many think we will having bull run before or immediately after the halving but at the end none of these doesn't need to happen.
I don't have big expectations from halving and I don't think we'll have a true bull run this year, to my opinion Bitcoin price will stay in moderate range.

I'm glad you admit it's just your opinion and of course everyone is entitle to his opinion but not to a fact, it's to early to tell if we are going to be bullish before halving happens we'll know if it will start next month March, if there is going to be a bull before halving, it should happen on the month of March which is a few days from now.

It happens so its going to be another hell of fud over in the forum. This bearish move seem very manipulated really, if people bought and hold at $10K they'd really feel miserable already.  I'm glad I have used all my BTC after it hit $10k I have no plans of buying even if people say its the bottom or will hit to $3k again.

I'd just be here going to watch the market whichever the price may go and see if the altcoins I hold are going to make some upturn in the future.

At a time like this, don't hold on for a long time, especially if you continue to monitor its development, we buy bitcoin and then target it to sell, so don't sell it in the future because it will be difficult at the time of the market, as it will surely be frustrating to see the current short-term decline is a good thing.
Keeping an eye on the market is the most important and also looking at the information that is happening now so that it knows what is the cause and not manipulation.

I agree with the OP. We are still in a bear market, albeit it looks like a secondary (ie, transitional) bear market.

For me the signal of a bull market would be the price staying above 12k for six weeks, or at least a month. This didn't happen since the bear market started in 2017. So far, this bear market is way bigger than the one of 2014-2015.

As for the halving, its pure hopium, like it was futures and BAKKT before. The StF ratio was already busted due to its curve being manipulated from 2020 to 2021, so we cant use the four-year cycle as a basis anymore.

Not sure I'd label it a bear market, BTC always sells off in a substantial way just like it rises beyond any normal expectations also.    It has lost the uptrend that was there for many weeks, so we're off that ladder and down we go and it just so happens we have bad news in the headlines and thats taken as the reason but it was on the cards anyway.     Right now its best just to look where it can land firmly, get a good standing again and rise.
   200 day moving average is around here but thats just an indicator not support as such though so many look at it so it can behave as such for some time.    Generally we will some process and develop in time and we'll rise again no need to doubt it especially.    However I will put myself down as expecting 2021 to be far more in potential then 2020.
    I just couple 2020 to 2019 and it'll be revising and retreading prices to cheers and sobs at various times, after that churn we rise very likely.

You Just have to hold till halving and I have made intention to hold my asset also you don't have to worry about the bull, we are still in bullish movement and no need to panic on that. Yes there might be some corrections happening like before but it doesn't mean we are going down, this is not a indicator for the downfall stay cool.

If you still feel you are in bearish market Just try investing more in BTC because like you know the price will automatically increase as demand will be there while halving.

What is the significance of $12K? It's ~ the 50% retracement of the 2018 bear market. Let's compare that to the post-2013 market. The 50% retracement there was ~ $650. The market didn't spend 6 weeks above that level again until December 2016 or so.

It sounds like you would have waited until the 2017 bubble began before calling it a bull market. We know in hindsight though that 2015-2016 was a consistently uptrending bull market. The same thing may be happening now. The bull market may have begun in the $3,000s.


Not sure what you are referring to. Could you explain?

Do you think that when bitcoin rejected the $14,000 we're already back to bearish? Lucky are those who have seen bitcoin at the bottom of $3,000 and still managed to hold during that time. Wherever this continuous dip is bringing us, it doesn't matter because all was set and planned to be a long term holder and the factor of halving is where everyone is expecting to see a huge gains. It doesn't have to be bullish before the halving, compare the past halvings, the market didn't go like that.

From the beginning of this year bitcoin has gained much and there is no way we can said bitcoin is not in the bullish condition now. I can tell you as trader that the condition that has or will influence bitcoin market has changed and this current condition is need for more big buyers to get into the market as there is buying limitation above $10,000.

The dump still continues, bitcoin goes below $9000 and now only trading at $8700.

What do you think guys, will the downtrend will still continue of this will bounce back again to $9000.
Although it's a great improvement compared to the $7000 we started but the price movement is very scary now.

So this dump because the hype of the bull run is over? or this is could our last opportunity before the bull run starts?

The support is strong at $8600 but provably we can go below down to $8300-8400, but there's a speculations that $8600 is the dipper and we can bounce back again but let just monitor how the market works right now since all the numbers coming is just a speculation so better have balance to short and earn with the current market condition.

That's exactly the sentiment accumulators are aiming for. The market is fearful, and everybody is getting scared to go long.

Fear & Greed index: 39 (Fear)
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

When the price gets marked up quickly into the $9Ks again, everybody will be left in disbelief. That's how bull runs begin. Shorters will be trapped in the $8,000s and weak handed bulls who got shaken out will be left chasing the market higher. It's the perfect recipe for a strong continuation rally after a healthy 2-3 week correction.

This is a risky time to use leverage but I do expect a strong upside recovery.

That is true, there is is uptrend going on before halving but not that high, it takes almost a year after halving before it sky rocket.
FOMO is always behind this movement, and dont forget whales traders that swim with the fishes.

that is simply not possible unless bitcoin suddenly becomes useless! the reality is that the adoption is growing and that alone guarantees price rise specially since bitcoin has a limited maximum supply. everything in the middle is just day traders making profit.
right now since the drop became bigger than expected, we could start calling it a downtrend and it is not possible to know how long it will last since it broke all the previous analysis of the market. but the recovery back to $10k+ may not be fast anymore.

Well, before that, the price of bitcoin needs to go back to the price of $ 10,000 first. however, there are only 2 months left before halving arrives. should in March, the price of bitcoin has begun to rise little by little. Well, after the decline to the price of $ 8,600, the current price of bitcoin is gradually rising to $ 9,000. I hope this price increase can reach a price of $ 10,000 again at the beginning of March.

A lot of burnt people want to get out with minor losses or a little profit. The climb to $20k will not be a straight line.

Same here bro, I am type of person who used to hold until the halving is done. Because I do believe that after halving and if you take a look for past halving it brings good impact on bitcoins price or we could simply say a bullish trend. But if Bitcoin will drop before the halving then it is good since everyone will have to accumulate more.

Didn't we move up from 4K? How can this be a bearish trend. I am pretty sure the Bitcoin halving will have a positive effect on the Bitcoin price in the long run. No matter if we move up or down a little right now. Try to look at the bigger picture and don't draw your conclusions from such short time frames. Bitcoin is here to stay and the 20K we saw, wasn't the All-time-High!

How much my memory serves me, and according to the official data from CMC price of 1 BTC on January 1, 2016 was around $400, and it stay like that next 5 months until halving. I wouldn't call it bullish, and therefore OP assumption looks like another worthless speculation.

Price growth is realistic to expect after halving, especially in the last quarter of this year, but the new ATH not before 2021.

For those who want to check it out : https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/?start=20130429&end=20200227

I still have a vague memory of the year 2016 (before halving) and I can remember a significant amount of people calling a Bitcoin crash coming. Remember, 2015 was the worst year from 2013 until today. All my friends have told me to sell my BTC in 2016 but I've done the opposite.

I still do not regret my choice. Follow your path if you've started paving it & become deaf to all the news and opinions around you. If you have experience and a good instinct, you'll be more than well.

Yep, that's how bull markets work. They climb a wall of worry, with bear traps the whole way up. :)

Bears around here claim everyone is bullish and expecting a new ATH but I've been sensing the opposite. Lots of fear and weak handed bulls everywhere I look. I'm amazed people are so bearish but I'm not complaining. This is exactly how early bull markets feel.

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

It did hit $8k man, and it seems it still will going down beyond $8.8k, and what I wondering right now is that would it be able to hit back at $9k once again or even at $10k (lucky if it happens, badly need my supposedly money back there lol) within March alone or would it stay still at $8k as it did between $9k and $10k in the last several weeks.


Unfortunately it did fall however, I kinda believe that before this halving arrives probably a 2 weeks before or a week before although it may sound so sudden, people would bring bitcoin back at $10k or even more as it there are so much hype with halving FOMOs surely would trigger this out, IMO.

There is always a first time for everything who know's maybe this would be the first halving that wouldn't make the price skyrocket.
But we still got some time so maybe there is still a chance for a bull run to happen, But I am not expecting another ATH right now just a safe spot at 5 digit mark would be great.

Hopefully we'll get into that phase of bitcoin trend before experiencing an awesome pumps. Never expect more than the actual behavior of the market, because price skyrocket can't be predicted accurately. What's happening lately is in contradiction to the speculations that we've heard from different ideas which is arising on different discussions.

Yes, we move up from $4k into $8500, and even we already touch the price at $10k, but this time, we see bitcoin price is at down without we know when it will increase again. If we look at history, bitcoin halving has a positive effect on the price, and that can push the price to increase higher, but we almost get in that halving moment, but the price still getting down. I guess this will be another downtrend before the bitcoin price can rise before or after halving, so we need to be patient for a while, and enjoy the ride ;D

It doesn't need to do anything but if we catch the halving on a bull that could potentially create some sort of wiggle affect that bitcoin may continue to go up thanks to it as well. I know that sounds unlikely to some people but when bitcoin starts to go up in price and something that will make it go up happens while it is going up usually 99% of the time the going up process goes for longer and longer and the price breaks a new yearly high. That is exactly what happened last year with the price going up but right after having the Libra talks helped it keep going up instead of stopping after a while.

So, the price doesn't have to do anything, it could even go down after the halving or before the halving but if it does end up going up (which I believe it will) we will see a longer bull all the way into the summer as well.

The current market trend is quite different from the previous halving. And I don't think we need to be in a bullish market before halving to think that we can be in skyrocketing coz if we could recall the last halving, bullish come after the said event and it actually takes months. I'm not opposed to having a Bullrun early this year ( as we all love too) but the market resistance is not really at strong and this is not enough to push the market into high in just a few weeks. And therefore, we can't expect that Bullrun will come to us in the 1st or 2nd quarter...it might be possible in the 3rd quarter but as we know, it all be unpredictable.

bitcoin movement is totally unpredictable, we don't know what will actually happen when halving comes. though there was a "trend" in previous ones, but it doesn't guarantee that we will follow the same performance. crypto is very different, so much changes has been made and note also, that the adoption is growing. i guess crypto users are now more knowledgeable and have learned their lessons in the past. so in general, we have different crypto environment but we still don't know what the future holds for us.

I also thought about it, that as the halving event comes closer day by day the price of Bitcoin should have been continuously increasing because of investors and Bitcoin supporters storing the coin in their wallet for a chance to earn a large profit after the event impacts the supply of Bitcoin. But instead, the price of Bitcoin goes into a dump which could mean that a lot of volume of the coin have been sold. Maybe this is only a correction but, if this continues in the next months, we might as well consider securing our assets to avoid loss from our investments.

The bottomline here is that, no one is certain what could happen after the halving. Many people are saying that the price would fall becore halving then be bullish after the occurrence of such thing. Then there are also people who believe that that the other way around could happen because of market instability that not because it happened before, same thing could happen again as an outcome. The best thing to do is to just wait and see it for ourselves, invest at this moment and just wait until the price increase to the point that one investor would be satisfied to sell without regrets. Because at the end of the day, the market itself is unpredictable and expectations will remain opinions unless it became a fact (when it actually happen).

It has too as that is the best timing, usually when there is an anticipated event, people gets hype on it and that results to a sudden increase of price and we actually have witnessed that this year so far, from $7000, btc went to $10400 as its high this year but recently been struggling, so I think March would be a crucial month to know if there is really a bull run, hopefully the rally will start once again.

precisely this month. we need to look at price developments that occur this month to ensure that bull run will occur. although the price development that occurred at the beginning of the year was pretty good, in fact, the price returned to the current level of $ 8k. however, there hasn't been a price increase since then, so I hope by the end of March, prices will be pushed back upwards.

Obviously bitcoin is rising in value, but the price of bitcoin is not rising so fast but I'm quite satisfied with it. From now until the halving begins, I hope Bitcoin's price could reach $ 10,000 again and it will certainly continue to rise thereafter. Invest now as best we can because after halving we will never see this price again.

This time the most important thing in my opinion is the price of Bitcoin is not traded below the price of $ 8150, for the next few months before halving.
I made an analysis and looked at the history of the halving year before it in 2016. I saw that at the time, Bitcoin was not traded below the price of $ 360, I called it the key price.
And this year the key price in my opinion is $ 8150.

The price I mentioned, I took for the long term.

I myself when doing trading always see this key price, both short-term and long-term trading.
Because in my opinion when the price of Bitcoin is traded above the key price, I just need to determine the best resistance to sell Bitcoin.
And vice versa when the price of Bitcoin is traded below the key price, I just need to determine the best support for buying Bitcoin.

And we need to know the RSI indicator on March 1, 2016 it was at 55.33% and currently March 1, 2020 RSI was at 55.00% when this post was made.
From there I still assume that the price of Bitcoin is still in a bullish trend, as long as the key price I say is not broken.

Since every previous bear market was a bit different we shouldn't try to make the bull markets match. Look at bear markets - they are getting longer every time. That last bear market took more than 2 long years and was the longest bear market in history. What makes you think that the bull market will be exactly the same?

 Is there a rule that says bitcoin has to go through these steps to grow? The future is uncertain!

I would say the 2014-2015 bear market was significantly longer (~9 months) than the one in 2018. I was around back then and it sure felt like an eternity.

I agree with your point though. Each cycle is going to look different. I made a big mistake in early 2019 assuming a long drawn out accumulation period like 2015 had to happen first. I was blind sided by the lack of resistance at $6K and the strength of that rise. That's what happens when you rely too much on what happened in the past. I really had to psychologically switch gears and shake off that bias before I could trade the rally correctly.

Indeed, I buy some and wanna hold it until the end of this year... ;)

The declining trend that we have now (and in the past days) will indicate that we can't see a bullish market before halving is done. You've seen it already and even though "IF" the market will tend to show pumps in the coming days, it eventually not strong that could make an instant rise and able to reach $10k. For sure, it takes months before we make it. But looking at how the market works by now, it less possible to happen.

It only just hope to have bullish in the 1st quarter but we can't just leave that hope into nothing and without giving our full support. Even though it won't happen, people will still trust Bitcoin.

I may be wrong (bitcoin is unpredictable), but I have a feeling that the whole game has changed. The long-term bull market which basically started with the creation of bitcoin is over. It does not mean that bitcoin is dead or will fall to some ridiculously low levels. Far from it. It means that there will be no more exponential rises. There will be 2x or 3x swings, but no more crazy 10x bull runs. Bitcoin will probably struggle to stay above $10k until the next halving (one in 2024) and there will be no new ATH until then. The upcoming 2020 halving has been priced in advance, during $3k to $14k rally last year. $100k is beyond any reasonable timeframe and may never happen.

Of course, this is just an opinion.

I was keenly watching during the times of 2016 halving and I observed in no way market reacted to halving. I do call that market was stable at the times of halving rather than it was bullish still I agree that market was not under the control of bears as after the then ATH at 2013, market was in bear's control fully on 201 and on January 2015 it hit the lowest of $180 and then started to be stable and bullish/bearish in 2015 completely.

Hence, during the 2016 market was under the control of bears at the same time bulls were also not too active. End of 2016 failed to have new ATH but beginning of 2017 showed us new ATH only after the new ATH bulls entered into full action. Similarly, we may expect bears to lose control around the times of upcoming halving and by end of this year, bulls may get all the required power to get us new ATH.

bullrun is over, and Bitcoin won't be able to reach $ 10000 resistance anymore, this is just my assumption, because right now Bitcoin has failed to penetrate resistance plus the world is being attacked by the corona virus disaster, making the prices of all markets decline, this also has an impact on bitcoin, but for altcoin seems to still have a chance to go back up

I don't think we've ever experienced a bearish season though? I believe the drop from $13k earlier this year was just a minor set back, and since then you could see that BTC has moved in a sideways motion indicating a possible investment period for the next big break it could have. As for the current trend of it having a set back from when it started reaching for $20k, I believe that's what you would call a correction? Especially if you look at how it took BTC a month or a month and a half to move from $8k to $10k.

The virus has again no impact on the price of BTC. Fear? Might be, but I believe they have no reason to sell their coins all because of a virus, one which can't even reach those said coins. As for the bullrun, well, if you looked at it from a wider perspective, I suppose you can look at it NOT being over. Look at how it compared it from the previous halvings, so why not start the comparison of a bullrun from when the last bubble (which was caused by the halving) popped?

yes . we should consider other factors same as what we do before  if we are comparing previous halvings   .

 before you said btc price was bullish but there was a major bad news before like what we experience right now  ? i guess none ,never heard of a virus outbreak before those previous halving occured . only minor bad news only but not a hindrance for some countries to continue thier financial business  .

that is thier differences on why price of btc right now is still not bullish   .

It should not. Bitcoin was intentionally created to be used as a hedge against fiat currencies and the stock market. This is its primary use: a "store of value".

If bitcoin declines together with the stock market, it means bitcoin is aligned with the mainstream, and that paper speculation (BAKKT, CMD, etc) is having a influence over it.

I am still hopeful that there's a sudden pump this month that would push a bullish run, it's nice watching that btc trying to rise back to $9000 again and if that would be achieve which I think we will likely see this month, then we should expect that the run will continue.

The hype for halving is still on, that's what I believe so I am not worried that price will dump anytime soon as I'm optimistic of its recovery.

Don't worry guys, the bearish session will be there till we cross back above $10250 and this time, there's no stopping as BTC will bounce very hard from $8700 area. It just needs to hold near there as I've been saying it all the time before, and once the pump starts, the next target I'm looking towards is not less than $11750 and furthermore towards $14500. FUD has been surrounding by many that it may be dropped down towards $6k and even less and we are awaiting a crash till a new low is determined and whatnot, don't fall for the bearish trap this time and hold your BTC tight - nothing's gonna crash as BTC is not going to get affected by Coronavirus unlike major stocks which got a hard hit.

In terms of logic, you are certainly right. I agree that in the context of the upcoming split of bitcoin in half, it should grow in value. Only in practice does this not happen. Until February 19, Bitcoin was growing well in price and once again crossed the price of ten thousand dollars, and after that it went into a slow decline. It seems that the cryptocurrency market is simply being manipulated. When we do not expect, the market grows, as it was in the second quarter of last year, and does not grow contrary to general expectations now. Well, let's see what happens next.

We are still in the $8700 range, $8900 2 days ago. Still a long way to go for $11750 but we all know that most of the time when we least expected, the market suddenly goes on a bull run. So let those FUD continue, because I'm sure there will be a time that people are going to be tired on this, and on the contrary would rather build their portfolio in this bearish trend.

As bearish also continued to create resistance on this periods, fud will also build it's momentum in order to create more diversions for now. But what I view in this current situation, the recent market fluctuations that turned a declined trend was a part of corrections. No need to worry all about because the price stabilized at that certain price. There's a huge potential to see more increasing value that might happen sooner, beat the bearish trend totally.

Many supports had held the bears from  going down a good indication that the bulls are very much in the market presently the price had been rejected by a strong support at $8400+ thus pushing the price upward it becoming glaring that the correction is coming to an end a clear ipoint to the fact that a huge price rally is imminent.
The price would be bullish before the upcoming coming halving.

true, but that only happens right before the previous ATH long a long ways before it. look at the previous ATH at $1200 which was broken in 2017, the rise to $1000ish was its own trend and sometimes it was even straight line but the closer we got to that ATH the harder things got and there were even drops after it was broken but it didn't last that long. eventually the overall bull trend overcomes all the sells.

These fudsters won't get tired of posting bearish news and speculations, same goes with the bullish people who only come out during the price is on a rising trajectory or when there's a special events such as the block halving that could potentially make the Bitcoin price skyrocket.
Currently, Bitcoin is really struggling to hit the 5 digit figure again and struggling to initiate a bull trend. Though I am not expecting the bull to come before the halving, instead it might come after.

Finally, we see bitcoin price can break $9k level, and it still up and down at that level. We might see another high price in the next week, but we can also have a chance to see if the bitcoin price will go down again. And for people who already buy bitcoin at a low price in a few days ago can take their profit from now on by selling their bitcoin. But they can still hold their bitcoin for more if they are want to sell bitcoin later when the price increase for more.

I think we really need the price of bitcoin for the pump before halving arrives. this is to make our spirit increase in holding bitcoin. however, if prices decline before halving, it makes us insecure.
In previous years, there were 2 possibilities that happened, that the price of bitcoin would increase 2x in the halving year, ie before halving arrived, and at the end of the year. I hope that will also happen in the upcoming halving this year.

Sure, that will happen later, but unfortunately, we need to be patient and still hold bitcoin because until now, bitcoin price does not increase or getting heavy pumps at the market. However, the chance to see the pumps will wide open because I am sure sooner or later, the pumps will come, and that can make the price break $10k. I think the price will really increase so high after the halving arrived because, in the last halving, we see that the price can rise to the highest price after one year of the halving. So we'll see it later ;D