Bitcoin needs to be in a bull market before the halving

[Altcoins enthusiast]

Just remember that folks.

The Bitcoin market was bullish before the two previous halvings (hence no clear correlation in my humble opinion). But if you believe there is a correlation then it's important to consider other indicators, and not the halving alone.

When you check the history of Bitcoin price, you will notice there was a clear bullish trend before the two halvings occurred.

I am in the minority here but I doubt this year will be bullish, the trend is still bearish, it has been bearish since we were rejected below 14k last summer.

Watch out for March-April, if they are still bearish months, there is no way IMO the price will skyrocket this year. The important prices here are 10.5k (very strong resistance) and 14k. Before we break these prices again there will be no uptrend.

I am not your financial adviser. Just my opinion  

From the beginning of this year bitcoin has gained much and there is no way we can said bitcoin is not in the bullish condition now. I can tell you as trader that the condition that has or will influence bitcoin market has changed and this current condition is need for more big buyers to get into the market as there is buying limitation above $10,000.

[Questat]

The dump still continues, bitcoin goes below $9000 and now only trading at $8700.

What do you think guys, will the downtrend will still continue of this will bounce back again to $9000.
Although it's a great improvement compared to the $7000 we started but the price movement is very scary now.

So this dump because the hype of the bull run is over? or this is could our last opportunity before the bull run starts?

[arwin100]

The dump still continues, bitcoin goes below $9000 and now only trading at $8700.

What do you think guys, will the downtrend will still continue of this will bounce back again to $9000.
Although it's a great improvement compared to the $7000 we started but the price movement is very scary now.

So this dump because the hype of the bull run is over? or this is could our last opportunity before the bull run starts?

The support is strong at $8600 but provably we can go below down to $8300-8400, but there's a speculations that $8600 is the dipper and we can bounce back again but let just monitor how the market works right now since all the numbers coming is just a speculation so better have balance to short and earn with the current market condition.

[exstasie]

The dump still continues, bitcoin goes below $9000 and now only trading at $8700.

What do you think guys, will the downtrend will still continue of this will bounce back again to $9000.
Although it's a great improvement compared to the $7000 we started but the price movement is very scary now.

That's exactly the sentiment accumulators are aiming for. The market is fearful, and everybody is getting scared to go long.

Fear & Greed index: 39 (Fear)
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

When the price gets marked up quickly into the $9Ks again, everybody will be left in disbelief. That's how bull runs begin. Shorters will be trapped in the $8,000s and weak handed bulls who got shaken out will be left chasing the market higher. It's the perfect recipe for a strong continuation rally after a healthy 2-3 week correction.

This is a risky time to use leverage but I do expect a strong upside recovery.

[In the silence]

That is true, there is is uptrend going on before halving but not that high, it takes almost a year after halving before it sky rocket.
FOMO is always behind this movement, and dont forget whales traders that swim with the fishes.

[pooya87]

I am in the minority here but I doubt this year will be bullish, the trend is still bearish, it has been bearish since we were rejected below 14k last summer.

i don't really see it that way, the trend still looks pretty bullish to me. and if you look at the bigger picture i'm sure you can see it too.
the trend begins from December 2018 when the accumulation starts at $3200 and price stays down and stable with a high volume for a couple of months. then we officially enter the bull market that slowly brings the price up then there are some sudden jumps that lead to a mini-bubble that needs to pop and be corrected. that is the $13880 in June and then we had the correction of that. but a correction doesn't mean "bear market" a correction is a sign of a healthy bull market instead.

Means that the market is currently in a correction where a few weeks before it has experienced continuous pumping or bullish now, in correction what is possible this will continue because the current downward trend is high enough to be honest I am quite worried that bitcoin will not return to $ 10,000 again.
If panic like this continues then there is no good but there will only be doubt to be sold at cheap prices even though this is the right correction to buy at a lower price.

that is simply not possible unless bitcoin suddenly becomes useless! the reality is that the adoption is growing and that alone guarantees price rise specially since bitcoin has a limited maximum supply. everything in the middle is just day traders making profit.
right now since the drop became bigger than expected, we could start calling it a downtrend and it is not possible to know how long it will last since it broke all the previous analysis of the market. but the recovery back to $10k+ may not be fast anymore.

[Farma]

That is true, there is is uptrend going on before halving but not that high, it takes almost a year after halving before it sky rocket.
FOMO is always behind this movement, and dont forget whales traders that swim with the fishes.

Well, before that, the price of bitcoin needs to go back to the price of $ 10,000 first. however, there are only 2 months left before halving arrives. should in March, the price of bitcoin has begun to rise little by little. Well, after the decline to the price of $ 8,600, the current price of bitcoin is gradually rising to $ 9,000. I hope this price increase can reach a price of $ 10,000 again at the beginning of March.

[Wilhelm]

A lot of burnt people want to get out with minor losses or a little profit. The climb to $20k will not be a straight line.

[Meowth05]

I might not pay attention to that because my goal is to hold bitcoin until halving is finished. If there is a bear market in March-April, it will be an opportunity for those who want to invest more. however, I am a person who believes that before halving, the price of bitcoin will rise. at the moment the price of bitcoin may go down, but at the beginning of March, I'm pretty sure the price will recover and return to exceed the price of $ 10,000.

Same here bro, I am type of person who used to hold until the halving is done. Because I do believe that after halving and if you take a look for past halving it brings good impact on bitcoins price or we could simply say a bullish trend. But if Bitcoin will drop before the halving then it is good since everyone will have to accumulate more.

[Jeremy Franklin]

I am in the minority here but I doubt this year will be bullish, the trend is still bearish, it has been bearish since we were rejected below 14k last summer.

Didn't we move up from 4K? How can this be a bearish trend. I am pretty sure the Bitcoin halving will have a positive effect on the Bitcoin price in the long run. No matter if we move up or down a little right now. Try to look at the bigger picture and don't draw your conclusions from such short time frames. Bitcoin is here to stay and the 20K we saw, wasn't the All-time-High!

[Lucius]

Just remember that folks.
The Bitcoin market was bullish before the two previous halvings (hence no clear correlation in my humble opinion). But if you believe there is a correlation then it's important to consider other indicators, and not the halving alone.

How much my memory serves me, and according to the official data from CMC price of 1 BTC on January 1, 2016 was around $400, and it stay like that next 5 months until halving. I wouldn't call it bullish, and therefore OP assumption looks like another worthless speculation.

Price growth is realistic to expect after halving, especially in the last quarter of this year, but the new ATH not before 2021.

For those who want to check it out : https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/?start=20130429&end=20200227

[20kevin20]

How much my memory serves me, and according to the official data from CMC price of 1 BTC on January 1, 2016 was around $400, and it stay like that next 5 months until halving. I wouldn't call it bullish, and therefore OP assumption looks like another worthless speculation.

Price growth is realistic to expect after halving, especially in the last quarter of this year, but the new ATH not before 2021.

For those who want to check it out : https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/?start=20130429&end=20200227

I still have a vague memory of the year 2016 (before halving) and I can remember a significant amount of people calling a Bitcoin crash coming. Remember, 2015 was the worst year from 2013 until today. All my friends have told me to sell my BTC in 2016 but I've done the opposite.

I still do not regret my choice. Follow your path if you've started paving it & become deaf to all the news and opinions around you. If you have experience and a good instinct, you'll be more than well.

[exstasie]

A lot of burnt people want to get out with minor losses or a little profit. The climb to $20k will not be a straight line.

Yep, that's how bull markets work. They climb a wall of worry, with bear traps the whole way up.

Bears around here claim everyone is bullish and expecting a new ATH but I've been sensing the opposite. Lots of fear and weak handed bulls everywhere I look. I'm amazed people are so bearish but I'm not complaining. This is exactly how early bull markets feel.

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

[Rosilito]

Bitcoin is still bullish, but today it seems like it's slowly going down and it might hit $8K+ soon.
The 24 hours low per Binance is 9040, that's very close to going down to $8K.

let's see if the price will bounce back, but I still believe its gonna be bullish before the halving, price should be higher than $10K IMO.

It did hit $8k man, and it seems it still will going down beyond $8.8k, and what I wondering right now is that would it be able to hit back at $9k once again or even at $10k (lucky if it happens, badly need my supposedly money back there lol) within March alone or would it stay still at $8k as it did between $9k and $10k in the last several weeks.

That is true, there is is uptrend going on before halving but not that high, it takes almost a year after halving before it sky rocket.
FOMO is always behind this movement, and dont forget whales traders that swim with the fishes.

Well, before that, the price of bitcoin needs to go back to the price of $ 10,000 first. however, there are only 2 months left before halving arrives. should in March, the price of bitcoin has begun to rise little by little. Well, after the decline to the price of $ 8,600, the current price of bitcoin is gradually rising to $ 9,000. I hope this price increase can reach a price of $ 10,000 again at the beginning of March.

Unfortunately it did fall however, I kinda believe that before this halving arrives probably a 2 weeks before or a week before although it may sound so sudden, people would bring bitcoin back at $10k or even more as it there are so much hype with halving FOMOs surely would trigger this out, IMO.

[xvids]

There is always a first time for everything who know's maybe this would be the first halving that wouldn't make the price skyrocket.
But we still got some time so maybe there is still a chance for a bull run to happen, But I am not expecting another ATH right now just a safe spot at 5 digit mark would be great.

[ice098]

There is always a first time for everything who know's maybe this would be the first halving that wouldn't make the price skyrocket.
But we still got some time so maybe there is still a chance for a bull run to happen, But I am not expecting another ATH right now just a safe spot at 5 digit mark would be great.

Hopefully we'll get into that phase of bitcoin trend before experiencing an awesome pumps. Never expect more than the actual behavior of the market, because price skyrocket can't be predicted accurately. What's happening lately is in contradiction to the speculations that we've heard from different ideas which is arising on different discussions.

[ethereumhunter]

I am in the minority here but I doubt this year will be bullish, the trend is still bearish, it has been bearish since we were rejected below 14k last summer.

Didn't we move up from 4K? How can this be a bearish trend. I am pretty sure the Bitcoin halving will have a positive effect on the Bitcoin price in the long run. No matter if we move up or down a little right now. Try to look at the bigger picture and don't draw your conclusions from such short time frames. Bitcoin is here to stay and the 20K we saw, wasn't the All-time-High!

Yes, we move up from $4k into $8500, and even we already touch the price at $10k, but this time, we see bitcoin price is at down without we know when it will increase again. If we look at history, bitcoin halving has a positive effect on the price, and that can push the price to increase higher, but we almost get in that halving moment, but the price still getting down. I guess this will be another downtrend before the bitcoin price can rise before or after halving, so we need to be patient for a while, and enjoy the ride

[FanEagle]

It doesn't need to do anything but if we catch the halving on a bull that could potentially create some sort of wiggle affect that bitcoin may continue to go up thanks to it as well. I know that sounds unlikely to some people but when bitcoin starts to go up in price and something that will make it go up happens while it is going up usually 99% of the time the going up process goes for longer and longer and the price breaks a new yearly high. That is exactly what happened last year with the price going up but right after having the Libra talks helped it keep going up instead of stopping after a while.

So, the price doesn't have to do anything, it could even go down after the halving or before the halving but if it does end up going up (which I believe it will) we will see a longer bull all the way into the summer as well.

[Kelvinid]

The current market trend is quite different from the previous halving. And I don't think we need to be in a bullish market before halving to think that we can be in skyrocketing coz if we could recall the last halving, bullish come after the said event and it actually takes months. I'm not opposed to having a Bullrun early this year ( as we all love too) but the market resistance is not really at strong and this is not enough to push the market into high in just a few weeks. And therefore, we can't expect that Bullrun will come to us in the 1st or 2nd quarter...it might be possible in the 3rd quarter but as we know, it all be unpredictable.

[CaVO32]

The current market trend is quite different from the previous halving. And I don't think we need to be in a bullish market before halving to think that we can be in skyrocketing coz if we could recall the last halving, bullish come after the said event and it actually takes months. I'm not opposed to having a Bullrun early this year ( as we all love too) but the market resistance is not really at strong and this is not enough to push the market into high in just a few weeks. And therefore, we can't expect that Bullrun will come to us in the 1st or 2nd quarter...it might be possible in the 3rd quarter but as we know, it all be unpredictable.

bitcoin movement is totally unpredictable, we don't know what will actually happen when halving comes. though there was a "trend" in previous ones, but it doesn't guarantee that we will follow the same performance. crypto is very different, so much changes has been made and note also, that the adoption is growing. i guess crypto users are now more knowledgeable and have learned their lessons in the past. so in general, we have different crypto environment but we still don't know what the future holds for us.