Bitcoin Forum

It has been a while since I posted any analysis on the forum, probably a good time now.

Today's drop was tragic and probably took many people by surprise, I personally did not see that coming, but I always like to plan ahead of time and be prepared for all possible scenarios.


https://i.ibb.co/x7RVt8W/panic.jpg

The chart above contains the two most important moving averages on the weekly chart of btc/usd, the 20 and the 200 moving averages, clear as day when price closes below the 20MA (blue) we enter a down a trend and quite often head to the 200 MA ( purple ), currently the weekly 200 MA is at $5524, by no means bitcoin should close below that, because if it does then IMO it will very likely print a lower-low below $3000.

Selling now at these prices is a dumb move because chances are the 200MA will hold as it always did for 6 years now, but bouncing back of the 200MA which is very likely is not a clear sign of a bull market unless a weekly candle closes above the 20MA we are still bearish.
 
I highly doubt any considerable rebound prior to the halving, maybe going back to the 7.5 - 8k range and that's it, the reason I think so is not the coronavirus but rather the market rules and structure, it's normal for the majority of people to lose money, bitcoin is no difference, now everybody is expecting to get rich because the price is supposedly going to the moon right after the halving but that IMO will not happen this time.

You might argue that it happened every other previous halving, that's true and there is no denial in that, but you and almost everyone else did not see that coming, back in 2016 there were probably only a handful of people thinking that the halving was going to cause price increase, while the majority thought bitcoin was going to die, nobody expected the 20k and so it happened, now everyone is expecting it, it simply not going to happen because no market will allow the average Joe to make money this easily.

I hope I have not created any more fud/panic, it's to my best interest that BTC price goes to $100,000 next week, but after being wrong so many times, i have to live with the fact that I am not special, I don't control the market and I have to always be ready for the worse.

TL;DR
-a Weekly close above 200SMA with a long wick(very good news) > a correction to the upside is most likely.
-a weekly close above 200SMA with no wick(Good news) > sideways market before a major correction or another potential dip.
-a Weekly close below 200SMA (Terrible News) > Most likely heading towards 3k again.

The scenario that has the highest probability of happening IMO would be the second one, we are likely to close the week above the 200SMA, go into a sideway action for a few weeks.


I would love to hear other trader's opinions, permabulls and permabears are not welcome.  :D

I think there will definitely be a bull market after the halvening, maybe it will start after 0.5-1 years after that date or even later, but I'm sure we'll see a new ATH, but I doubt it will be the $100,000 promised by perma-bulls, my guess is that it will be $30,000-40,000 or in my most optimistic scenario it will be $60,000. And as for the near future, we'll likely see the same thing that happened recently - longer period of stagnation, then a few bullish weak until we meet resistance and fail to overcome it. Seems like this is becoming a new Bitcoin trend.

I believe a bull market will only kick in 2022, that is, two years after the halving.

FA got busted, and the StF ratio (which was the pillar of the hodler's creed) was manipulated and pushed ahead, which invalidated the 4-year cycle model. So we will see these swings for quite some time yet, going from 5k to 15k and back.

Yes, I'm sure everyone was caught by surprised seeing the market goes down hard including bitcoin -20%-25% in just matter of days.

Comparing it though to the prior halving in 2016, we didn't have this kind of worst case scenario. Back then it was just fud and speculation that fuel the market down before the halving. But this time, it's very different, we have the corona virus to take into consideration and we have seen the effects already. So if we are going to go the next bubble after this year's block halving, I'm guessing it could be 2021-2022.

https://i.imgur.com/jCD9RiB.png]
CHART NOW:
$4,900 already broken. Almost 50% lost within 24hours. Very bad for Bitcoin.
Again, if we zoom out and identify the horizontal supports, for me, our next stop if incase we will still go down is the lowest price after we reach $19,000 last 2017-2018 which are around $3,200+.
Jeez, this is really devastating.
To avoid panic; avoid observing the chart for these days. Panic sellers are everywhere. This is also good for everyone (like me) who want to buy again at a lower price.

Seeing a long red candle like that is terrible, but to trace I do not need to experience panic.
Is not it in 2018 when bitcoin reached ATH then a few months later reached its lowest price of 3100 $ + we still buy it.

Today the price of Bitcoin has reached the MA200 as a long-term decline goal, here I am sure that the MA200 will not break, but there must be a reflection of the price in this MA200.
So keep waiting and see.

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value. 

Two years isnt enough I guess for a huge break down. TA will probably useless for now, as the market swing is quite fast and its support has been modified continously. I am not so experience but seeing a pattern like this, is remembering the 2018 cycle.

Right now at 5k again, 30mins passed and still kicking some huge pushed. Thinking of some whales started to move again.

Or it is the dead cat bounce and a final capitulation is about to start..

the current price has been a low price since 2020. Well, this makes people surprised and panicked because, in just a few days, the price of bitcoin reached its lowest point. honestly, I am not so panicked about this, because I still believe that prices will recover due to encouragement from halving. but, I might be a little pessimistic about the price of bitcoin which will recover this year. Well, I agree with the statement above that it is likely that the price of bitcoin will recover in 2021-2022. especially when the covid-19 virus is finished.

This is is not how it works, you can't take a moving average on the weekly time frame and say it was broken because a candle on the 4 or 1 hour chart closed below it, we need to wait until sunday for the weekly candle to close, the rest is just noise.

Bulls broke back above it just now. We might have to chop above and below it a few times before the market confirms it as support for good.

The prospects for a full on V-bottom look decent. We saw insanely high volume exchanged. Capitulation occurred for sure and shorts piled on massively. We just need bulls to follow through now and trap sellers below $6K.

Based on volume and magnitude, this selloff looks like the January 2015 capitulation. A true old school BTC capitulation. I hope nobody around here managed to sell in the $3,000s. :D

In my opinion it's not part of the MA200 broken, it just touched and slightly fell past the MA200.  If you want to say the MA200 is broken you need to see the candle next week, if it continues to be passed and the price continues to fall then you say the MA200 is broken.

Some of my analysis on the MA200 is part of the barrier, I myself am not sure if it continues to be bypassed.

Hope U are right. But I'm not so optimistic( Even if it will stand for now, there will be few months of world financial crysis with bearish markets everywhere.

I doubt that we can call it a weekly before week ends. However, the fact is price actually moved towards a place where we were half expecting it to go down if things get sour. The trouble here is the fact that there was a huge sale, that means it might be nothing related to analysis or nothing related to charts and ma200 or anything at all. It could be simply just a rich dude selling a lot of bitcoins they had to buy more stocks just as when it dropped.

Remember not everything in crypto is actually calculated moves, some of them just happens out of nowhere and shocks the whole world. Maybe that is one of the reasons why it moved all the way down to 3600 but moved back up, it wasn't a predicted move but nobody really thought the price would stay there all the time and bought it right away.

Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

Not sure that even 3K will be a final stop this time.

The thing is , we haven't yet reached the Halving and sooner or later the price is going to climb up really fast and panic selling would only make things worse for you , you will loose money and at the same time you will feel real bad when you see the price climb up. 
The good thing is things will pass , you just got to have patience and stop looking at the price of bitcoins time and again .
This just makes situations worse.
Just calm down and hold for long time.

Link? Peter Brandt is known for selling his followers down the river. ;)

This is what I was getting at in my discussion of "what kind of bear market is this?" You assume it means lower lows and endless carnage, $3K and beyond. There is a distinct possibility we are in a long term sideways formation. I think you are ignoring that and have been for a very long time.

Watching the market reach $3,850 then V-bottom, and still expecting $3K.......I suspect that prediction will not age well, but let's wait and see how the weekly candle closes in relation to the 200-week MA. Bulls are not out of the woods yet.

I would be cautious with any shorting. Governments are printing money to cover the crashes and this might reach bitcoin sooner or later.

Prices don't usually go to where the average joe has placed their orders, and now that most people are expecting an exact 3k or 3.2k as it is the only major support below the 200MA, chances are we will not dip to that level again, and if so happens then we will also more likely go lower. In general you don't really want to except bitcoin at popular prices like 3k,1k not even 20k.

it's a classic phenomenon: the crowd waits for $3k, price comes sorta close but reverses hard before getting there, then they are all left waiting and coinless. this is what happened at the end of the 2015 bear market.

the "manipulators" if they exist are betting on this. they know all those people will end up buying their bags at $6k, $8k, etc instead of buying low at $3k. or like you said, the market will run straight through $3k (like it did to $6k last year) and punish all those people trading the "obvious" support level.

markets can be such a mindfuck!

https://finsof.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/BTCCY6.jpg

It is really surprising and even me I'd never think that it goes like this as we are expecting more positive because of halving that soon to have. It is really a strategic event that causes huge changes in the global market. It for sure people aren't prepared for this and that it seems to be normal that there are a massive crypto withdrawal and conversion. The hardest thing now is how to control the possible panic selling. Weak hands will surely do it first and the other will follow seeing the market continue to fall.

Yeah, the halving is the only reason the price hasn't crashed even deeper. There are people out there that believes that the halving will eventually cause the price to rise and might also even help to achieve a new all time high. But the worse part would be when people see the price not rising even after the halving. The dumping of the price would be real bad then. People would end up dumping their investment out of frustration. So let us just hope nothing like this happens after the halving.

There's not only panic selling in crypto space today, but with panic buying in the market as well. Sure, weakhands have 2 reasons why they are selling in this situation we're in right now. First, because the market just lost $64B in just 24hrs, causing Bitcoin to lose almost 40% from its last position. Second, because of the pandemic. People would prefer fiat over any cryptos during the times like this. The WHO declared covid-19 as pandemic, so with the number of people infected everyday, there might be a possible wide community quarantine or worst a city lock down.
What other investors failed to realize, is when the market and economic crisis recovers, huge profit for sure will come to those who take advantage of the opportunity to buy during the market is down.

I don't really understand where does this theory come from, or what is it actually built on.

Let's run some numbers:

We currently have 18,267,225 BTC, when the halving comes there will be 18,375,000, and so we already have 87.5% of the max total supply, the four years period that will follow the coming halving will add exactly 1,312,500 to the supply, so in other words, instead of adding 2,625,000 BTC from 2020 to 2024 you cut half of that (1,312,500).

Now taking the 1,312,500 as a % it only makes 7.14% of the total "to be" supply by May 2020, that is a very small percentage, too small to make the impact that many people expect it to make, if someone doesn't understand the numbers % wise, think about having a $100 and you spend $7.14.

I kindly want you or anyone else for that matter to explain to me how does a 7.14% supply reduction causes prices to increase 100% or 500% as many people think/say.

Thank you.

I don't understand much of the graph but as long as it looks like a dragon that is going to the sky again then I am happy with it.  ;D
I'd pick the 2nd choice because the 3rd looks terrible to me.
3k once again? No way! I don't want to see that number again.

Is this like a pre-halving sickness?  ;D

The bottomline is, no.matter how huge the decline in its market value, it will have a price increase in the future as long as the demand is also increasing simply because demand will determine the price of cryptos or anything in the market. The only thing an investor should do is to wait, because no once could predict with certainty when would exactly recovery occur, one could only assume and speculate but we cannot really predict such thing due to the nature of market volatility. It would be normal to worry everytime the market value is falling, but avoid making decisions due to panic, because regret is the only thing that would be acquired.

Just keep in mind how many times, downfall came to this industry. Although recovery at some points are not that big, slight uptrend is enough to keep our hopes up. Ofcourse we cannot force those who would panic selling to not do such thing, so just take advantage of the market price decline and invest, because profit will be earned in the future. No matter how long it would take, just wait, because that would be worthy of your time.

People are really shocked after this huge downfall happened in crypto sphere, Even those who predicted huge prices are in silent mode now. Every one are desperately waiting for Halving now and I am very much pleased to see some positive pump in this and I hope the market will improve in someday.

Here is an update on the weekly chart

https://i.ibb.co/hyzSjpj/weekly.jpg

We did close BELOW the 200MA on the weekly, the weekly candle, however, has a very long wick (over third of the candle size), the candle itself suggest a reversal and shows a lot of buy pressure, the 4000-5000 area is a bull land, for now, it will be hard to go below it, the problem, however, is that now the 200MA on the weekly has become a strong resistance, the $5534 level will be extremely hard for the bulls to break.

At this point, I have no intention to take any short positions, and I will only buy if we manage to close above $5534 or if we go below $3000, in fact, I already have some long positions from $2400$ to $3000 which may never get filled anyway, but if we don't close above 200MA soon enough, I won't surprised to see those levels in the coming weeks.

We closed the $5534 position but there still rallying until 5.7k pricr of btc, I do hope to continue the pump until 6.4k level but its getting hard time to break at 5.8k. I do hope we cant see those level on your current position. I am currently at holding stage, until I see a good break out, before releasing some btc on krakens tummy. And set a position on 3k level, particularly. In your opinion? Would it be the case in the coming two to three weeks?

Bulls have just retaken the 200-week MA. Will the market hold above it? I'm very curious to see how the weekly candle closes in 3 days, 5 hours. This could be a very pivotal moment for BTC!

https://i.imgur.com/E9kc1Tj.png

If you are into fractals, you may find this interesting.

https://i.ibb.co/C8FjxQt/fractal.jpg


if you zoom into the weekly chart on BLX on exactly 17-aug-2015 you can see a very similar structure to the current chart, a weekly candle close "slightly" below the 200MA followed by a bullish hammer-like candle that failed to close above the 200MA but had wick go through it, next week candle closed above the 200MA but below the 20MA, consolidation period of 6 weeks, and then rally, let's see if you repeat the fractal by closing this week below 5.5k.

Thanks for pointing that out.

It's difficult to time the candle closes. In the short term, the market could top anywhere from here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54059957#msg54059957) to the lower $7,000s (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54061022#msg54061022) and then come back to retest the 200-week MA area or below. Whether we officially close the candle above or below it (to match the fractal) probably doesn't matter. Either way, I think the fractal is a good general guide for how a bullish recovery could play out over the next several weeks.

Fingers crossed. It'll take a few more weeks for the dust to settle and see where we stand. For now, this idea is still in play:

https://i.imgur.com/qm6Tobn.png

Many analysis came with optimist and calculation but so far I think is fundamental problem, in this part human psychology take big space. Corona takes our economy and someone who connected with currency is really smart, just like put fresh fish front of cat. Panic is normal condition but how we can manage risk is really important than complaint. I believe cut loss is more effective than hold, let is go so we can start new journey.

after more than a week we are now looking for good bounce back as the market today seems to be recovering?
i am not a bearish but not also bullish.all i want is to be fair and truthful as there are too much expectation from the FUDders and the Bullish but yet market is just going normal so why bother thinking much when we can just wait and let the investors come to make the growth much even better.
but today is a great day even this is friday that mostly the value is falling and increasing by Monday.

People who have predicted the price of Bitcoin are completely silent because nobody didn't expect such a huge downfall about the price of Bitcoin. Still, there is no complete clarity whether how long this downturn will continue because the virus still spreading to a lot of countries. This may lead to more panic about the prices.

Real money is made during bear market, remember BTC went from $6000 to $20000 in just 1month in 2017. Invest when others don't, then sit back, relax & sell when everyone starts Investing again. This is my new strategy to make money in crypto market 8) get ready to be greedy guys but sure , you should keep waiting for bullish confirmation.

A few months ago I saw an Eliot Wave count-based analysis ( I forgot where) where the count is something as follows.

https://i.ibb.co/1skxwkB/Eliot.jpg

Technically the count is correct, and the only concern is the  ABC correction, we failed to rally to 20k so we are unlikely going to have a flat ABC correction where the bottom is of wave C is the start of Wave B, therefore, a zig-zag formation is most likely, which means wave C has to be lower than wave A (3.2k), assuming wave C has the same length as wave A or 83% drop form 13.8k, the proper end for wave C is just about 2.3-2.5k.

Ignoring the ABC correction, I would still want to see a double bottom, I am really not conviced that we have actually bottomed out, we are still way too far from the 20SMA on the weekly, worldwide fundamentals are not encouraging yet.

That may be debatable. The internals of Wave 3 are questionable, which is why I've always rejected that count.


That ABC is now Masterluc's preferred count. He has abandoned the triangle and is looking for the $1,800-$2,400 range.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qNy2lBH5-Bearish-outcome-of-previous-ideas/

I see it as plausible but not the highest probability outcome. I also agree with Masterluc that it's part of Historical Wave IV, not a bearish supercycle yet.


I expect to see the $5,000s and probably the $4,000s again. I do think the lower levels will be retested, but I also think the ultimate low is probably in. V-bottoms are rarely retested, especially in BTC. I doubt we can reach that level of panic again.

That could change if global markets enter another panic and this morphs into a 2008 crisis. For now, as crazy as it sounds, I still think markets are in the beginning of a stabilization period, on the cusp of a relief rally like the post-Black Monday rally in late October and early November 1987.

It doesn't take a genius to realize that there are resistance levels and there are support levels and you can see where the biggest support levels are and you can act accordingly. If you are a whale and you want to buy cheap what could you do to make sure the price goes down so that you can buy a lot of bitcoins for cheap but you do not go down too much that everyone else starts buying as well? You check the support levels. The $3k or $3.2k to be more precise is a support level where everyone and their mother would buy bitcoin at that price.

So, what makes sense for a whale to buy cheaper? They could make it $3.5k and then let it go up while buying as much as they can, if they do this multiple times they will have shit ton of bitcoin while others are still waiting for the support level.

There are no invalidations in Wave 3, I agree that the wave is not perfect, especially the way "they" count (ii) in the said wave but as far as structures are concerned, nothing really invalidates the wave count, if you see any invalidations, please point them out, I am far from an expert with EW.


It does make sense.


Speaking of large time frames (weekly and monthly) the only previous similar situation we had with double bottom formation was the 2015 capitulation period, that was not a perfect double-bottom but we had a wick go below the body of the previous candle, which in hour case should have been the $3600 level, but we did dip to as low as $3700 on some exchanges, so you are right, as far as double-bottom this could be it.


I wish I had half the optimism you got because I think we are not even halfway to misery as far as the global economy is cornered, today alone the U.S had over 5000 new Corona cases, the same number in Italy, sadly Italy lost 627 people today to the virus, and if you look at the Coronavirus chart (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) you can easily see an uptrend of nearly 90 degrees, I know for certain that China was the best country to handle the virus, and I can only assume that things will be worse everywhere else, no vaccine seems to be coming next week, our bodies don't seem to be developing any new method to fight the virus, I don't want to spread fear, but things don't look promising at all, sadly.  :'(

As far as TA is concerned, I am keeping a close eye on everything, the monthly candle has a lot to tell as well, I will take any close above 6.4k as a good sign on the monthly timeframe, and weekly close above 200MA is as good, a weekly close above 20MA and I will become bullish, close above 10.5k and a retest, I will be super bullish, but I think all of that is wishful thinking because the most likely scenario, for now IMO is this > 6.1k-6.4k is major resistance and we are unlikely going to break it, we head back to make a lower low below 3.1k, everyone and their grandmother loses hope in bitcoin, range between 2k and 4k for a few months, and then start a new bull cycle.

I will not be trading based on that scenario, that's a very large picture, I am sticking to the short/midterm in my trading, but it's a scenario that worth to be highly considered and prepared for, what we have now is everyone thinking the halving will change everything and take us to new ATH, everyone thinks making money is easy, buy bitcoin before the halving, become rich after the halving, but we know that markets don't work this way, it needs to eliminate those people first and thus, the scenario above is not any less likely to happen than any other scenario.

Let's watch the 200MA and the weekly candle's close in 2 days.

all the panic that we had over that past week has only postponed the big rallies of 2020 that are inevitable. like always the panic was only a short lived one while the weak hands made it bigger than it could have been predicted.
you don't need to be an "analyst" to see the potential of bitcoin and the way it has been growing in adoption this past 2 months in multiple countries around the world as they officially accepted it as a legal currency.

In my view, the BTC price will only 'stabilize' at whatever price that may be when the US Stock Market finally dumps to around 1/2 of its previous value before
this Pandemic crisis. At that point, IMHO, people will go 'what the hell' and simply have to HODL and bet on Capitalism and the economy recovering. To think
anything else right or wrong will be beyond their conception....thus that will be the HODL point for fiat. Of course a few more trillion $$ will be tossed in the
pot to stabilize this at that 1/2 way loss point. But this is how I see this all playing out as BTC worth via Fiat worth.
When/If above happens, then IMHO, BTC will start to act as a store of value...even if only sideways from whatever price it is when the above happens.

You see how the Wave 3 has 7 swings? There should only be 5, or 9 if one of the sub-waves was extended.


You know how in January 2015 we went to $150 but in August 2015 the market stopped at $200? That's what I mean about no double bottom. I think the $3,850 low may be our January 2015.


It's not about whether the pandemic will get worse. Of course it will. It's about when the resulting economic contraction gets priced in and the panic stops because the outlook has been normalized.

There's no real way to quantify whether the stock market should fall 30% or 60% or whatever else. At this point, it's less about fundamentals and more about sentiment. If/when the West turns a corner like China, there will be a solid market recovery, even if we know infections will continue to rise in the coming months.

This does not validate the count, looking at it on the monthly chart, the only thing that is not perfect is the length of wave 2 in wave 3, regardless of how you try to count it, as I said it is not a perfect wave but the wave still meets all rules of a correct Eliot wave.


Yup, that is exactly what I just said, without using the levels.


Agreed but I still think we have a long way to go for panic to stop, that we had so far is merely the pandemic effect, the global economy was going to collapse either way this will only speed things up.

Short term look at BTC, I see us going to $5100, and then $4600, was not planning to take such a trade, but I can't stop my itchy hands.  ::)

The internal count seems invalid to me. Maybe this can be overlooked. It's not worth arguing over. Time will tell, but I prefer a count that better accounts for the price action in 2012:

https://i.imgur.com/57JKg9p.png


Cool, I wasn't sure from the wording.


Yes I see that too, and the bearish pre-market open on stocks supports that idea: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54077735#msg54077735

Measured move target is in the low $5,100s but as we know, BTC's lack of liquidity often takes the market beyond typical levels. I plan to close shorts there and then wait for an obvious bottom before buying back on spot.

If there is enough panic in the world markets, we could have another March 12th event that takes us below $3K. I'm still trying to be contrarian since everyone is expecting the worst, but things are admittedly looking pretty grim.