Don't Panic Yet, Bitcoin Analysis.

[mikeywith]

Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

Prices don't usually go to where the average joe has placed their orders, and now that most people are expecting an exact 3k or 3.2k as it is the only major support below the 200MA, chances are we will not dip to that level again, and if so happens then we will also more likely go lower. In general you don't really want to except bitcoin at popular prices like 3k,1k not even 20k.

[figmentofmyass]

Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

Prices don't usually go to where the average joe has placed their orders, and now that most people are expecting an exact 3k or 3.2k as it is the only major support below the 200MA, chances are we will not dip to that level again, and if so happens then we will also more likely go lower.

it's a classic phenomenon: the crowd waits for $3k, price comes sorta close but reverses hard before getting there, then they are all left waiting and coinless. this is what happened at the end of the 2015 bear market.

the "manipulators" if they exist are betting on this. they know all those people will end up buying their bags at $6k, $8k, etc instead of buying low at $3k. or like you said, the market will run straight through $3k (like it did to $6k last year) and punish all those people trading the "obvious" support level.

markets can be such a mindfuck!

[Yamifoud]

It has been a while since I posted any analysis on the forum, probably a good time now.

Today's drop was tragic and probably took many people by surprise, I personally did not see that coming, but I always like to plan ahead of time and be prepared for all possible scenarios.

It is really surprising and even me I'd never think that it goes like this as we are expecting more positive because of halving that soon to have. It is really a strategic event that causes huge changes in the global market. It for sure people aren't prepared for this and that it seems to be normal that there are a massive crypto withdrawal and conversion. The hardest thing now is how to control the possible panic selling. Weak hands will surely do it first and the other will follow seeing the market continue to fall.

[adzino]

The thing is , we haven't yet reached the Halving and sooner or later the price is going to climb up really fast and panic selling would only make things worse for you , you will loose money and at the same time you will feel real bad when you see the price climb up. 
The good thing is things will pass , you just got to have patience and stop looking at the price of bitcoins time and again .
This just makes situations worse.
Just calm down and hold for long time.

Yeah, the halving is the only reason the price hasn't crashed even deeper. There are people out there that believes that the halving will eventually cause the price to rise and might also even help to achieve a new all time high. But the worse part would be when people see the price not rising even after the halving. The dumping of the price would be real bad then. People would end up dumping their investment out of frustration. So let us just hope nothing like this happens after the halving.

[Oasisman]

The hardest thing now is how to control the possible panic selling. Weak hands will surely do it first and the other will follow seeing the market continue to fall.

There's not only panic selling in crypto space today, but with panic buying in the market as well. Sure, weakhands have 2 reasons why they are selling in this situation we're in right now. First, because the market just lost $64B in just 24hrs, causing Bitcoin to lose almost 40% from its last position. Second, because of the pandemic. People would prefer fiat over any cryptos during the times like this. The WHO declared covid-19 as pandemic, so with the number of people infected everyday, there might be a possible wide community quarantine or worst a city lock down.
What other investors failed to realize, is when the market and economic crisis recovers, huge profit for sure will come to those who take advantage of the opportunity to buy during the market is down.

[mikeywith]

Yeah, the halving is the only reason the price hasn't crashed even deeper.

I don't really understand where does this theory come from, or what is it actually built on.

Let's run some numbers:

We currently have 18,267,225 BTC, when the halving comes there will be 18,375,000, and so we already have 87.5% of the max total supply, the four years period that will follow the coming halving will add exactly 1,312,500 to the supply, so in other words, instead of adding 2,625,000 BTC from 2020 to 2024 you cut half of that (1,312,500).

Now taking the 1,312,500 as a % it only makes 7.14% of the total "to be" supply by May 2020, that is a very small percentage, too small to make the impact that many people expect it to make, if someone doesn't understand the numbers % wise, think about having a $100 and you spend $7.14.

I kindly want you or anyone else for that matter to explain to me how does a 7.14% supply reduction causes prices to increase 100% or 500% as many people think/say.

[Reid]

Thank you.

I don't understand much of the graph but as long as it looks like a dragon that is going to the sky again then I am happy with it. 
I'd pick the 2nd choice because the 3rd looks terrible to me.
3k once again? No way! I don't want to see that number again.

Is this like a pre-halving sickness? 

[Latviand]

The bottomline is, no.matter how huge the decline in its market value, it will have a price increase in the future as long as the demand is also increasing simply because demand will determine the price of cryptos or anything in the market. The only thing an investor should do is to wait, because no once could predict with certainty when would exactly recovery occur, one could only assume and speculate but we cannot really predict such thing due to the nature of market volatility. It would be normal to worry everytime the market value is falling, but avoid making decisions due to panic, because regret is the only thing that would be acquired.

Just keep in mind how many times, downfall came to this industry. Although recovery at some points are not that big, slight uptrend is enough to keep our hopes up. Ofcourse we cannot force those who would panic selling to not do such thing, so just take advantage of the market price decline and invest, because profit will be earned in the future. No matter how long it would take, just wait, because that would be worthy of your time.

[mahilchii]

People are really shocked after this huge downfall happened in crypto sphere, Even those who predicted huge prices are in silent mode now. Every one are desperately waiting for Halving now and I am very much pleased to see some positive pump in this and I hope the market will improve in someday.

[mikeywith]

Here is an update on the weekly chart



We did close BELOW the 200MA on the weekly, the weekly candle, however, has a very long wick (over third of the candle size), the candle itself suggest a reversal and shows a lot of buy pressure, the 4000-5000 area is a bull land, for now, it will be hard to go below it, the problem, however, is that now the 200MA on the weekly has become a strong resistance, the $5534 level will be extremely hard for the bulls to break.

At this point, I have no intention to take any short positions, and I will only buy if we manage to close above $5534 or if we go below $3000, in fact, I already have some long positions from $2400$ to $3000 which may never get filled anyway, but if we don't close above 200MA soon enough, I won't surprised to see those levels in the coming weeks.

[cryptoaddictchie]

At this point, I have no intention to take any short positions, and I will only buy if we manage to close above $5534 or if we go below $3000, in fact, I already have some long positions from $2400$ to $3000 which may never get filled anyway, but if we don't close above 200MA soon enough, I won't surprised to see those levels in the coming weeks.

We closed the $5534 position but there still rallying until 5.7k pricr of btc, I do hope to continue the pump until 6.4k level but its getting hard time to break at 5.8k. I do hope we cant see those level on your current position. I am currently at holding stage, until I see a good break out, before releasing some btc on krakens tummy. And set a position on 3k level, particularly. In your opinion? Would it be the case in the coming two to three weeks?

[exstasie]

Bulls have just retaken the 200-week MA. Will the market hold above it? I'm very curious to see how the weekly candle closes in 3 days, 5 hours. This could be a very pivotal moment for BTC!

[mikeywith]

Bulls have just retaken the 200-week MA. Will the market hold above it? I'm very curious to see how the weekly candle closes in 3 days, 5 hours. This could be a very pivotal moment for BTC!

If you are into fractals, you may find this interesting.




if you zoom into the weekly chart on BLX on exactly 17-aug-2015 you can see a very similar structure to the current chart, a weekly candle close "slightly" below the 200MA followed by a bullish hammer-like candle that failed to close above the 200MA but had wick go through it, next week candle closed above the 200MA but below the 20MA, consolidation period of 6 weeks, and then rally, let's see if you repeat the fractal by closing this week below 5.5k.

[exstasie]

If you are into fractals, you may find this interesting.



if you zoom into the weekly chart on BLX on exactly 17-aug-2015 you can see a very similar structure to the current chart, a weekly candle close "slightly" below the 200MA followed by a bullish hammer-like candle that failed to close above the 200MA but had wick go through it, next week candle closed above the 200MA but below the 20MA, consolidation period of 6 weeks, and then rally, let's see if you repeat the fractal by closing this week below 5.5k.

Thanks for pointing that out.

It's difficult to time the candle closes. In the short term, the market could top anywhere from here to the lower $7,000s and then come back to retest the 200-week MA area or below. Whether we officially close the candle above or below it (to match the fractal) probably doesn't matter. Either way, I think the fractal is a good general guide for how a bullish recovery could play out over the next several weeks.

Fingers crossed. It'll take a few more weeks for the dust to settle and see where we stand. For now, this idea is still in play:

[yanto@1977]

Many analysis came with optimist and calculation but so far I think is fundamental problem, in this part human psychology take big space. Corona takes our economy and someone who connected with currency is really smart, just like put fresh fish front of cat. Panic is normal condition but how we can manage risk is really important than complaint. I believe cut loss is more effective than hold, let is go so we can start new journey.

[rodskee]

after more than a week we are now looking for good bounce back as the market today seems to be recovering?
i am not a bearish but not also bullish.all i want is to be fair and truthful as there are too much expectation from the FUDders and the Bullish but yet market is just going normal so why bother thinking much when we can just wait and let the investors come to make the growth much even better.
but today is a great day even this is friday that mostly the value is falling and increasing by Monday.

[miningguru]

People are really shocked after this huge downfall happened in crypto sphere, Even those who predicted huge prices are in silent mode now. Every one are desperately waiting for Halving now and I am very much pleased to see some positive pump in this and I hope the market will improve in someday.

People who have predicted the price of Bitcoin are completely silent because nobody didn't expect such a huge downfall about the price of Bitcoin. Still, there is no complete clarity whether how long this downturn will continue because the virus still spreading to a lot of countries. This may lead to more panic about the prices.

[mahilchii]

Real money is made during bear market, remember BTC went from $6000 to $20000 in just 1month in 2017. Invest when others don't, then sit back, relax & sell when everyone starts Investing again. This is my new strategy to make money in crypto market get ready to be greedy guys but sure , you should keep waiting for bullish confirmation.

[mikeywith]

A few months ago I saw an Eliot Wave count-based analysis ( I forgot where) where the count is something as follows.



Technically the count is correct, and the only concern is the  ABC correction, we failed to rally to 20k so we are unlikely going to have a flat ABC correction where the bottom is of wave C is the start of Wave B, therefore, a zig-zag formation is most likely, which means wave C has to be lower than wave A (3.2k), assuming wave C has the same length as wave A or 83% drop form 13.8k, the proper end for wave C is just about 2.3-2.5k.

Ignoring the ABC correction, I would still want to see a double bottom, I am really not conviced that we have actually bottomed out, we are still way too far from the 20SMA on the weekly, worldwide fundamentals are not encouraging yet.

[exstasie]

Technically the count is correct

That may be debatable. The internals of Wave 3 are questionable, which is why I've always rejected that count.

and the only concern is the  ABC correction, we failed to rally to 20k so we are unlikely going to have a flat ABC correction where the bottom is of wave C is the start of Wave B, therefore, a zig-zag formation is most likely, which means wave C has to be lower than wave A (3.2k), assuming wave C has the same length as wave A or 83% drop form 13.8k, the proper end for wave C is just about 2.3-2.5k.

That ABC is now Masterluc's preferred count. He has abandoned the triangle and is looking for the $1,800-$2,400 range.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qNy2lBH5-Bearish-outcome-of-previous-ideas/

I see it as plausible but not the highest probability outcome. I also agree with Masterluc that it's part of Historical Wave IV, not a bearish supercycle yet.

Ignoring the ABC correction, I would still want to see a double bottom, I am really not conviced that we have actually bottomed out, we are still way too far from the 20SMA on the weekly, worldwide fundamentals are not encouraging yet.

I expect to see the $5,000s and probably the $4,000s again. I do think the lower levels will be retested, but I also think the ultimate low is probably in. V-bottoms are rarely retested, especially in BTC. I doubt we can reach that level of panic again.

That could change if global markets enter another panic and this morphs into a 2008 crisis. For now, as crazy as it sounds, I still think markets are in the beginning of a stabilization period, on the cusp of a relief rally like the post-Black Monday rally in late October and early November 1987.