Bitcoin Forum

I am sorry to say that, nowadays, bitcoin price reflects that it is simply high-risk asset, like another. Like if you invest in a start up of buy shares of a small cap company.

And what happens with those highly volatile assets when there is a crisis? People sell them to obten the most liquid asset: cash. Fiat money.

It wasn't created with that purpose. On the contrary, it was created to protect hodlers from the abuses of the financial system and central banks. But nowadays it isn't working that way.

Most of us in this forum believe that BTC is a unique asset that has value in itself for its unique features, thus it has to appreciate a lot in fiat terms, to six figures, maybe to seven figures and maybe there will be a point where it won't make sense to compare it to fiat. Both because of its intrisic value and because of the fiat inflation.

But the market doesn't reflect that way of thinking. That is why I've started to wonder if we are biased.

We had a mini crisis starting in March but we seemed to have recovered pretty quick. Now imagine that we enter a very deep crisis. A deep and long one.

Do you think BTC will appreciate?

I'm sorry to say that I don't think so. Most people would sell bitcoin, as well as other assets, to obtain liquidity.

I would be glad if someone persuaded me of the opposite, though.

What's the market cap of bitcoin? ~200 billion $, there can't be many assets or market caps at that level.

Afaik, to put it in perspective I think we're 1/30th of the gold industry which is pretty good for something 10 years old?

If we have a disastrous strike and the economy receeds greatly, no asset is good for holding all you need is food and fuel (fire etc) and water. Beyond that the rest of the money people have has to go somewhere.

I actually think if shit hits the fan in Europe, we'd probably turn socialist/communist (with some things) or the time it takes other countries to recover and then break wawy from it after that.

Bitcoin will crash extremely in case like that. But will also recover much fast then anything else. Gold will follow second.  I am not saying Bitcoin will recover with same speed as this March since we talk of different crisis. bitcoin will recover much faster then stocks. Much, much faster. For stocks can take years while fro Bitcoin can take months.

It depends on what you qualify as a crisis. In March Bitcoin crashed unexpectedly in price, losing about 50-60% of it's initial value, but this happened during a period were most assets and commodities were experiencing downward movements in value due to effects of lockdown and economic decline. It was unexpected but doesn't count as a crisis in my opinion, considering that it recovered very well over the following weeks and months.

From the time Bitcoin actually got a market value, there has been extremely wide fluctuations in value; After the bull run of 2017, we entered a long bear market period, with Bitcoin lossing more than the % value lost in March. It however recovered and is still attractive to investors and being adopted in various sectors.

A trade doesn't signify a capitulation of the currency - Weak hands and strong hands trade coins regularly. If anything it reflects two opposing opinions; one party sees a falling currency and moves to cut their losses, another identifies potential for growth.

You should not be persuaded to invest or believe in a currency, you bear the risk and should do your research. Bitcoin doesn't appeal to everyone, and if you search hard enough, there would be an argument and a counter argument against it.

What would you expect, one decade since Bitcoin was launched? It's probably not realistic to expect mass adoption in that time frame, and furthermore Bitcoin in many ways is not ready yet for mainstream adoption as a currency. To be a competitive and ubiquitous payment system, we need low fee solutions with excellent UX. Unfortunately LN is really not there yet.

People also aren't generally being paid salaries in BTC, which prevents its usage as a means of exchange. Since people need to spend money to acquire BTC (banking fees, trading fees, etc.) it therefore makes more sense to hold it as an investment. We're all speculating about whether mass adoption will happen or not. And that's why it is a volatile, speculative asset.


I agree.

The biggest factor in the recent crisis was central bank policies. When they can inject trillions of dollars into the markets at the drop of a dime, that really limits the downside of risk assets. How well or long that can sustain in a "very deep crisis" I'm really not sure.

I agree with you on that.


It was also created to become a micro-payment scheme, unfortunately, it has evolved in the last 10 years as store of value and investment platforms.


And many are still in that way of thinking.


If we have a deep financial crisis, then people will find a way to hedge their wealth and I think bitcoin will be the best asset. The two year bear market proved that bitcoin can survive at it is very resilient, maybe some narrative have change, but we have passed the test already.

I wouldn't even persuade you. Though we can't deny that BTC being a high-risk asset, or an investment right now is a part of what made it quite famous and a part of what made a lot of people get in on the crypto world, It does hinder it's adoption towards its original goal, as a medium or a currency. Still, it isn't completely to be blamed, especially since Bitcoin in of itself isn't really prepared for such an adoption, and as such, made more sense for people to actually see it as an investment.

You could say that it's actually a development most agree on, since later on at the end of the road, it's volatility would be highly reduced, making it a lot more suitable for adoption, as well as a lot of developments then would fix problems with Bitcoin today (fees, speed, etc.).
Most would probably sell, but the same could be said for those who are just waiting and would buy the second they see an opportunity. There would always be demand for Bitcoin imo, and recovery may take a long time, as long as there is supply and demand for it, it would naturally retain its position in the long run.

Bitcoin has never been in a recession before. People were always wondering how will bitcoin perform in a recession. Most people assumed that people would sell stocks and buy bitcoin however its clearly not the case. If you watch SP500, Gold and other asset you will see that bitcoin follows those assets. Today it had a small dump and it was due to the SP500 hitting new lows.

The reason why is because bitcoin and crypto traders are closely monitoring the global markets before making a bias on bitcoin. So before they take a trade they look and see what Sp500 is doing. If SP500 has a massive crash, crypto traders know that bitcoin will follow so they all start shorting it. The reverse is also true but not always. When SP500 goes up, sometimes Bitcoin follows.

In general people are bias to what asset or stock they hold. If you hold Apple will you tell people to buy PC instead or Android phones? Probably not.

it is only a "high risk asset" if you first look at bitcoin as an "asset" which is wrong, and also if you look at it in short term as a day trader wanting to make short term profit which is again wrong.

bitcoin is a currency and even if you want to consider profit, it only makes sense in the long term not short. and so far in the past 11 years the long term has always been profitable without even a single exception.
why? because as you already know bitcoin is offering a unique utililty as the only decentralized global currency that is censorship resistant and has a limited supply.

when you talk about crisis and its effect on bitcoin price you are again looking at bitcoin with a short term goggle. that is what the "panic sells and panic buys" are too. they are only short term effects not long term. as we already saw from the recent drop due to global pandemic.

the amount of drop depends on what percentage you think are seeing bitcoin purely as an asset.
no matter how many, in the end when those people are out the remaining who don't see it that way will continue accumulating bitcoin which would also be so much cheaper by then since the "weak hands" would be out.
then we are back to normal just like we went back to normal a while back after the "weak hands" panicked and jumped out.

Yeah, I kinda got a glimpse of what's going to happen if there will be another pandemic longer than COVID-19. I've seen people trade their belongings for food (i.e. gadgets for rice) similar to the barter system where fiats or other forms of currency are unknown.

Not only bitcoin price become a victim of crisis. Other things like stock market, gold & oil price flows pretty same way as bitcoin. During March we have seen that crisis for covid-19 pandemic worldwide. And it recovered quickly as you mentioned. But I don't think bitcoin or other assets will loss it position fully for any crisis. It may get a little dump but all on a sudden we will see the backup in the market. I think btc is unique, it is accepted as payment method at many spot. And in future it will be accepted at more places beside fiat money.

When the Covid-19 pandemic hit rapidly throughout the world, it must be admitted that the economic crisis was felt because all of the country's foreign exchange reserves had to be spent to cover the unexpected costs, not many of the layoffs that had occurred made it more difficult for the government to also try to support aid.

but bitcoin seems to have no impact at all with the state of the Covid-19 pandemic, it can move up and even be fairly stable, but indeed investment in bitcoin is a long-term investment, because if you buy now it certainly requires a large fee and it is not advisable to wait for it to fall back. because a large investment is clearly a risk that is high enough but that risk will pay off if you get a high increase.

I agree that it is better to see the bitcoin in a very long term perspective. That way, it's easier for me to see bitcoin winning the war on fiat and distancing itself from other high-risk assets.

It's a pitty how the price is behaving nowadays, though,

You are not looking forward and you are not checking what's been going on for the past ten years and I won't persuade, you when it comes to investing it should be based on your assessment if you think you are losing them stop and sell and cut your losses and comeback when bitcoin hit three digits and stabilize, investing in Cryptocurrency is not for the weak hands.

When investing you should see if you are earning and not losing and I can't blame people to sell  since everyone have different targets so provably those who sell already are in profit or sometimes they are just cutting their losses and buy back again to catch up their losses. And bitcoin investment is not only supposed to hold for long years since we already see how the market moves and it will not fit for long term that's why its better to grab the chances to gain while the market is moving rather than waiting for more years to see some excellent pumps.

The truth is we do not know the answer about what will happen to bitcoin in a long and deep crisis but we are bound to find out eventually if this crisis becomes worse or if in the future we see a crisis like that, because lets be honest we are bound to see such crisis sooner or later, however the crash we saw in the stock market and then the one we saw in bitcoin is easy to explain, as you say speculators after the crash of the stock market needed liquidity and what better way to get it than to sell their bitcoin which had been appreciating anyway, but the question is will this behaviour change as we enter in a crisis so deep that even affects fiat currencies? I think the answer is yes but we have now way to know until we see such crisis.

If you survived covid-19 doesn't mean it is a mini crisis. Covid-19 is still a global issue and a serious one too that is still requiring some countries thinking of closing down their economy again to avoid more calamity. It is serious
Bitcoin didn't drop because different countries supported their people in providing palliatives and different help from big organizations which helped people.

Some people sold off but many more bought because their were loose money. Example, US gave a lot of financial assistance to the citizen. Also that, at the time bitcoin was preferred for transactions more than fiat because of contact.

Obviously in bitcointalk forum we are going to be biased towards bitcoin a bit, you are not going to find a lot of people who hate bitcoin here, almost everyone here loves bitcoin (or another crypto) and that is why we are not going to say anything bad about it. Surely there are some new people who are asking stuff like "will bitcoin go down to 3k" or whatever and create a bear call but we are not going to really be interested in that.

Go to wall street places and ask about crypto there and you will get a lot of hate for example, that would be biased as well, there are very few places that will have zero biased opinion about crypto, they are almost all biased one way or the other and that is why it is better to ask around in place that really cares about it.

It's okay if that's what you think. We have our differences and opinions which we think may be correct and I don't think that's wrong. So far, that's the deepest and probably the worst that we can face, the covid19 with its effect and resulted to financial crisis. But as you see, during March, it has pretty low but after the next months we saw how quick it's able to recover. Unlike any other assets, this is why I like bitcoin and has the most in my portfolio because of its quick recovery.

BTC also is a community on its own, there are those who would sell for what you said, there are hardcore believers who think/knows,
"The contrary" and that  "it was created to protect hodlers from the abuses of the financial system and central banks"  Now in everything that is happening with governments and banks and.... More people will see that BTC is that unique asset as non before, cause its amazing futures and its power to redistribute wealth in the word, so I think with all crap thats going on, the nr of true BTC's will increase as well and those selling for FIAT will be left alone with there inflationary FIAT....

In a nutshell, we can say that you are disappointed with the current situation or rather the price of Bitcoin, right? You may have expected too much from halving as some others, but you have to look at a much broader picture from the present moment, and understand the situation of the world when it comes to the pandemic and recession that is also at the door. The price of Bitcoin cannot grow constantly, the market consists of buyers and sellers, those looking for short-term profits and those entering long-term.

I can’t talk about anything before 2014 from personal experience, but I witnessed everything that happened after that, and what Bitcoin has achieved to date is a great success.

We may have that line of thinking now that Bitcoin is some type of safe-haven asset where it can stand into a line of crisis since it had shown itself to quickly recover fast during the start of the outbreak in March but I'm not one of those people thinking that way. The economical crisis haven't even started yet during that time and we aren't experiencing the full extent of damages the pandemic has brought to us yet so saying that Bitcoin is some kind of hedge to a crisis is simply being optimistic. Even if I am a investor of Bitcoin I always try to remain neutral in how I think because it is my capital on the line when I will hold  a personal bias on what I am holding.

Bitcoin always rises after the fall and this is the best thing about it. The time period may be big or small it is not constant but if buying on dips becomes the bait then surely in the end, we will make money from it. So, it is said that invest for long so that you are not in stress also if in short term market falls but in the end, it will bounce and move upwards.

It is the normal sequence that we see with bitcoin. After each time it falls, there will be a quick time for its recovery and this is not a secret anymore for bitcoins holders and this has always been the hope that we're having if we see some negative charts on a day to day basis.
Investors who worry more about the day chart of bitcoin needs more experience and time to stay.

Many of us here who are strongly supporting Bitcoin are frankly biased. Sometimes we are too positive on Bitcoin that we immediately frown on statements which are negative to Bitcoin but are actually honest and objective. As of this moment, it seems it is fiat that is falling that is now fueling Bitcoin. But on that regard also, it is better and safer to be with Bitcoin than fiat.

Market is not really going that bad, 10 years ago or so there was a new "online currency" that was established by some anon person and today it is over 200 billion in market cap, that really shows how great we are doing. Obviously there was a period when crypto market was over a trillion dollars and bitcoin was 20k+ so people think that at 10k we are not doing that well but the reality is the further back you go, the better we look which means the future is bright for us.

Naturally just because past was great doesn't mean future will be great neither, but it does sound like that most of the time because so far we have said that and the future always looked better as well and when enough time passed we saw it was actually well. So maybe it will continue that way.

How are they "wrong?"

Personally I believe the market is always right. If some people view Bitcoin as an investment asset and others view it as a currency, that's perfectly fine and natural, even if it doesn't line up with your conception of what Bitcoin should be.

I'm pretty sure Satoshi acknowledged (based on Bitcoin's monetary rules) that each BTC would be worth millions someday if it went mainstream. It's only rational for some people to therefore treat it as an investment asset. They are speculating on whether mainstream adoption and 6-figure or million dollar prices will happen.

That's the good thing about it.
There is always the fear of missing out (FOMO).

Have you been to the point like 2017?
I was at the crucial moment of selling my bitcoin in exchange for USD. But, there is always the thought of what you will miss out if you did that.
I do think there is a large percentage of bitcoin holders who think the same. Then, there are those who will keep it for a long time.
Yes, a crisis may come (we are actually in a crisis now) but I don't think the bitcoin value will go so far down.

Fomo makes the market alive, having bitcoin for longer is what others thought can be beneficial as it might reached a higher price again, without us knowing that maybe we already the price it can only possibly reach. As bitcoin is not yet that widely popular and many countries still didn't know it then adoption rate can still increase that makes bitcoin more better in the future. We became too biased when we know how the market reacts in adoption and hype that can be in done anytime in the future.

we are biased in a good way , whats wrong with that ? this is also what makes people to be involved on bitcoin and we sure do like that to happen .

i wonder whats that mini crisis you mean ? dont tell me is it covid ? because i havent heard of any crisis aside from it but covid is not a mini crisis  . if its mini then why the effects are so wide and so long that we still need to follow  safety rules till now  . this is a deep crisis already and this can be the deep among the deepest but as you can see , we btc supporters are still here  . we appreciate the downtimes more than the up time

True but lets compare other asset to bitcoin in terms of their recovering rate. While other asset are struggling, bitcoin was able to recover to its previous all time high of the year and even surpassed it. That proved although it was previously sold as a result of fear,  it still got bought back after the whole situation calms down. The true is you can't prevent people form panicking when there's a crises, the money to had invested in this assets are exactly for situation like this. That's to sustain them when their jobs/government can't.


Don't forget we're just 10 years into the technology regardless, bitcoin has surprised us all so far and it must be certain that you are impressed and anticipating what the future holds. With time it'll be able to do what it was created for perfectly (protect its holders against the fraud called fiat). The Industry is still developing and currently be overcrowded by whales with the power of manipulating the market to their wills. Therefore you shouldn't be surprised when things like what you explained above occurs frequently.


And looking at the currency/technology, I see no lie in the statement above, it's limited supply (just 21millions) serve as a perfect catalyst to push for a continuous increased price provide the demand for bitcoin remains constant which will obviously be the case since it's unique features (decentralization, privacy, convenance etc) will keep on attracting investors.

That's true.
But, didn't we all walk that path?

For me, it would be best for them to experience it from the start.
That way, lessons will be learned while they are still investing low or being careful.
The worse scenario is they will learn it late and just when they are starting to put more money on the line.

A costly way of learning how the market works and I can say that I’m also a victim of FOMO and I think this is normal for a newbies since they still don’t know how to control their emotions and they are just new in the market. Bitcoin will still go up high and appreciate on its value because of its limited supply and we are not biased on this because that’s the fact. Manage your money well, create strategies and always see the market trend based on its price.

I really do not think that "cash" is something people really look for, is it? I mean when pandemic first hit my initial reaction was to buy bitcoin, and it was cheap so I got it for quite a low amount as well, and now I profited, why do people think that is not the case for many? I assumed the price went down because there was a crisis and people needed money and spent it, not because they wanted cash.

If you reason to sell bitcoin (and cause it to go down) is to cash it obviously but then use that cash to make sure you survive the pandemic and buy stuff with that cash like food and so forth that is needed, I would totally be fine with that. However if you sold your coins and got cash and hold it in cash .. like in your wallet? I don't know whatever the reason but you didn't spend it, just had cash instead of bitcoin as an "investment" that is a horrible idea.

Costly ways of learning the market is a brand new thing, it wasn't like that just a few years ago. Back in the day bitcoin went up so fast that, you would be sad that you sold too early. I once had 50 bitcoins as a whole and you know how much I sold it for? 500 dollars, about 10 dollars each, at the time that was a good deal because I got it for free for doing something and it really worth a ton for me, 500 dollars for a work was almost 10 times more than I expected.

You know what it worths now? Over half a million dollars, that would have been enough for me to retire early. Obviously this was a thing in the past, "selling too soon" is not really a common problem anymore, but this FOMO stuff should be slowed down a bit, people didn't lost money, they lost profits, now they are actually losing money.

I think there is an issue with the expectations that people put in bitcoin, this market was created out of nothing and now is worth a fortune, that is not a small accomplishment at all and all of that happened in just a decade, what do you think bitcoin is going to achieve during the next decade now that it has advanced so much? Even if the value of each bitcoin does not get as high as the dreams of some people I have no doubts that as the economic crises becomes more frequent people will try alternatives and bitcoin will be there for all the people that are willing to think outside the box and that is enough to guarantee its growth over the long term.

I'd also extend into a level that might Bitcoin will soon to just a normal asset that anyone can bough in the market. But the stories now are quite changing, it is getting more volatile, riskier than is was featured before. As it goes by, the more issues that had come out and change the prospect of individuals instead of getting interested in this, the more it becomes less appreciated. People are so bothered to hear those scamming and hacking issues and give them a doubtful mind to invest.

In future talks, we can presume out things that might happen basing off on the current situation we are into and in the past but it doesnt precisely connected or for people to rely on and this will surely break lots of peoples hope and dreams but somehow in the current trend we are into, we can presume out that its likely to fly with colors on upcoming decades to come.People shouldnt really rushed that much because things cant really be just achieved on few years time.
Let the adoption to move and lets hope for the best that this wont really just vanished out in thin air.

I do believe that bitcoin will go up but not because I am in love with it (I am) but because of technical and ideological reasons. We are in a market that is agreed to be a store of value, people put their money in it and we constantly go above 150 billion market cap and total peaked at over 1 trillion once.

We can't just say that "bitcoin has no value, people put value on it" because when something peaks at 1 trillion dollars (by comparison NASDAQ was only 14 at the time) you have to accept that it is something loved by millions of people and that is why it worths so much.

There is just waaaaayy too much money involved in crypto world to say that it is not going up, it will have to go up because everyone looks at bitcoin and thinks the same thing and they all invest to it, how could it drop?

I do think the same, if this market only followed speculators then it would have crashed all the way to zero years ago and nothing will remain of it, but it is precisely because bitcoin is highly regarded by some as a store of value and as the future of money all over the world that speculators can play their little game, if it was not for the holders keeping their coins in cold storage speculators will have no chance of playing with the price, so I think that what we are seeing is not a disconnection between the the goal of bitcoin to become a store of value, instead what we are seeing is a consequence of that goal, after all even if right now the dollar is the strongest currency around the world people still trade it and speculate with it right? So when bitcoin becomes the coin in which speculators invest the most money that is when we can say that bitcoin has become the most dominant currency all over the world.

It was always high risk and so unknown originally it was attributed no value beyond curiosity and uniqueness.    We gained alot of attention but also built up regular exchange and layers to systems handling all types of users and now theres giant amounts of froth in the price but its not reduced the back bone of growth and use of Bitcoin.    Its true of most assets that the prices are spongy on the surface at least and below that theres a more solid supply and demand price.
    Dollar is the source of most speculation and inaccuracy in prices, excessive over supply of dollar means its cheap to gamble on which assets can outperform and then we rise because somebody else thought it was reasonable.   A crowd effect or feedback loop is perfectly reasonable conclusion to observe but its not negating Bitcoin overall.   Which of the two is stronger, Dollar is a rope untied at both ends and despite being a substantial  length and weight with decades of inertia we will see those holding on eventually let go when thats realized.  

Bias and inaccuracy is all over the place, its not just us if you are scared of that and we are somehow in some self denying bubble just hoping.  The issues are bigger then just crypto and I do believe it will be that crypto is of greater use to society then it is now, if true then we are not in the wrong place.  There is no absolute certainty we go in any direction, accept that and you are fine imo