Bitcoin Forum

According to the analysis, Bitcoin is in the Accelerated Uptrend Channel, $68,700 will be the Top in short term.

The recent ATH can be considered as at center, then we use the Fibonacci indicator to divide the upper and lower part of the rising channel. Based on the former highest point, we can predict that the Bitcoin price will retrace back to 38% Fib level, which is the starting point of this bull market.

https://i.imgur.com/9LIrCk5.png

From the above charts, we can notice that before Bitcoin surged to $68,700, there will still be 2/3 of the time that it is trading within the “buy zone”. In the short term, as the uptrend channel converges, the rising pace will accelerate. Then, a massive price correction will follow. However, Bitcoin may break above $100,000 in the relatively long run. If BTC did plummet back to $20,000, then climb to hit $100,000, we will see asymmetry between the peaks.

I would reservedly say anything is possible. Two weeks ago I replied in a post that Bitcoin
wouldnt have any more 20% drops, and here we are just recovering from one. So im no
good at making price predictions.

One one side I wouldnt be dissapointed if it corrected 70%, for me I would try and acquire
as much Bitcoin as possible again at $20,000.

How often do these price analysis predictions come to pass?

OP, or Bitcoin might never crash below $50,000 again. Because it's pointless showing us in "what range" Bitcoin MIGHT crash, if we don't know in "what range" the current cycle ENDS.

I have been in the crypto space long enough to understand that the technical analysis is applicable to all trading activities but more than the technical analysis is the fundamental analysis that will tell you a tale of surprises when the global events and occurrences play out. With the likes of Grayscale and Microstrategy playing out in this space, reducing the available floating circulation of bitcoin and converting a significant amount of their financial balance sheet to Bitcoin, there is no doubt that the price of bitcoin might not play by the rules of technical analysis.The bulls are in the market and they didn't come to play games with their reserves as bitcoin has also been known as a store of value and not just a just a medium of exchange.

Maybe you should read OP’s assumption in his/her post, to get the context of my post before you reply. OP assumes that ATH for this cycle will be $68,700, then crash back to $20,000. I replied, Bitcoin MIGHT not crash below $50,000 again, because the new ATH for the current cycle MIGHT be much higher than $68,700.


Unpredictable enough to surge to 6 digits? 8)

I like your thinking, although I believe that TA makes some sense - it is never possible to predict based on statistics what will happen in the future. If we consider what happened 1 year ago, what TA could have predicted that?

I will also agree that all these big players do not seem to be betting on BTC in the short term, but that they have completely different plans that imply that massive corrections will not suit them - and then it is logical that they will try not to let that happen. Of course, at least from what we know from public data - the amount of BTC they own is still relatively low to be able to control the market, but their current impact on the crypto market is that their actions give a great deal of legitimacy and send a clear message that there is makes sense to invest in BTC.

OP assumptions could come true if we are wrong about what all these big companies are planning - because if they happen to start posting their exit from BTC, it would probably mean a big correction to the $20 000 zone or even lower.

I think that it is not the best idea to estimate BTC price (asset with 48 B $ daily volume) based on lines that are build on price action of asset with 70 M $ daily volume (BTC at the top of 2014 bubble) or like 0,5-10 M $ (BTC at the top of 2011 - i have no data about volume these days). Its completely different asset with completely different average investor profile (from nerd and belivers, to lambo guys who did not dump in 2018-2020, institutions, investment founds). Bitcoin may only struggle to break this line because of people that believe in this, very popular, analysis.

Going back with that 70% drop is really something that is hard to believe on, if we do really consider on how strong those supports are below 30k price point then it would really be needing some

serious negative news or events to poke out this kind of possibility or market crash.We are just too big to crash like that but well, everything isnt really unsure yet on not to happen.

We know that the market could crash in least we do expect so therefore we shouldnt really be that on that confident side of things.

So but no real possibility of 70% drop from around these levels. 70% drop from like $150k later this year....sure that's possible. 70% drop from $68700 would be $20k. That just isn't happening, sorry. Way too much institutional money in the game not to go that low, and they'd be buying billions at a time if it ever even got under $40k again, zero chance of $20k.

@OP, I agree to the fact that a huge corrective drop is awaiting to take place in BTC once it reaches a new ATH above $63k (not your price but I saw it on the charts with higher possibilities of BTC reaching over there and then starting to dump).

But me agreeing to this has some limitations:
- BTC possibly won't crash over 50% (which means it won't be less than $25k)
- It will remain range-bound for some time and then, slowly recover

What if the Op predictions would suddenly commence before we finally achieve $100k but not certainly this year, because that's too hard to be fulfilled due to several factors. Biggest hindrance is resistance, along with emotional challenges that every individuals is facing right now. The very challenging scenario to see here, is the FOMO of everybody then will result to panic once they couldn't survive the market pressures since many speculated that crash might happen randomly.

Many anticipate the big correction to take place and they are waiting for the bear market. We might see a new all time high before the big corrections to happen but its hard to tell what’s the peak even the TA can’t guarantee that right now, we’re trying to reach the price of $50k again, if we succeed then new peak will happen. I also believe that 30% - 50% down is enough for the next bitcoin bear trend.

TA like this barely matters when it's seen in a vacuum from the macro variables.

The level of institutional adoption is astounding and I don't think that is something that can be taken particularly lightly. IBs and just holdings companies like Tesla will provide a pillar of stability that cushions BTC against flash crashes that we've seen follow BTC in the past.

Does this mean I'm suggesting that there will be no retracing in sight? Absolutely not. But the fall will be much less aggressive compared to previous cycles for sure.

In the previous bull of 2017, did we see a aggressive downfall to 50% though? I have to go back and see if this pattern did occur during the last great bull run we have.

So we need to go down to $20k before reaching 6 digits figure down the line? Really hard to see this happening, but we will see. We already know how volatile this market is, one thing that made me not believed this though is that bitcoin's narrative has change a lot, companies are seeing it a good asset to hold on their balance sheet, so this storyline might not held bitcoin going down to 50% or even more.

I believe in reasons, cause and effect but 70% huge drop is so huge that it can be considered a crash of the market, yes we have that, but it's pandemic and this is something that nobody has anticipated, or predicted, if it's a cycle of the market, I don't think there is a good reason to give 70% these are just probability in a highly speculative and volatile market.

I think if there is a top it might actually be somewhere in the ~$70000 area. Reason why is because most people will want to take profit at $100K. Or at least start taking partial profits. Yes $70K is not $100K however its $100K in Canadian dollars and Aussie dollars.

There will be major selling in that area. Look at all the people who bought before $20K broke or the people who bought in the $33K area. They will have significant profit at $100K. So most will start taking profit there, so I don't think $100K USD will happen. Most like $100,000 Aussie or Canadian.

It's good for people who wants to get in the market that has a very tight budget, I do think so too that 70% is a lot in terms of going down but considering the events that happened this past year and comparing it to the other crashes in prices, I think that the current model in the OP is not going to be accurate.

No, there was no such drop in 2017. There were two main roughly month-long corrections of about 42% that year during the big bull run.

This year we've already now gotten two weeks long corrections, the first in Jan of 32%, and the current one of 26%.

No reason to see a 70% drop. Market is more cautious right now than in 2017, likely due to institutions not being as likely to FOMO in as retail. I would be we have several more 20-35% correction over the next 6 months as this thing heads to a peak very possibly around $150k.

I also can't recall, nevertheless this year, we didn't have significant drop to 50%, so I also doubt that it can happen this month. Will be waiting for the price around $70K and see if there will be a major retracement after that. This is the first time though, that I've heard a prediction with graph and some valid TA to go with.

Nevertheless if bitcoin's narrative has change because companies are looking at bitcoin to hedge their assets and hold their balance sheet into it, then will it be a disaster for them to see the price going down to more than 50%? The most logical steps is to continue to buy when the price goes down to 30% though and accumulate again?

I agree, just imagine what could happen to Tesla and Microstrategy if we see bitcoin falling down to about 50%? All these institutional buying has definitely made some effect so while we can look at the 2017 trend as reference, this year's bull run will be different. It's only just beginning and who knows who else will join this train? Other than investment from companies, there's also crypto merchant payments to be launched by Paypal which I believe will be a very big thing not only for Bitcoin but for ETH and LTC as well.

That will be better for bitcoin to hit around $68,700 or more before the big drops occur to make a profit again and have a chance to buy back Bitcoin at a lower price.
If that is the scenario and the price is still at the current price, we can buy more bitcoin before the price starts to rally.
But we know that bitcoin can move to any price, whether that is a high price or low price, and we can not do anything except prepare for anything that can happen later.
We, as small traders, do not have to panic but always try to analyze where bitcoin moves, and if we can see a chance to buy or sell, we need to use it for our benefit.

That is the thing about increases, there are some people that think that it will go forever and buy it at the top and unfortunately people who are newbies buying there are more common.

Normally in order for bitcoin to increase a lot, we need newbies because money in crypto is already established and there are few newbies every single day but when a huge hype newbie group comes in like how they do during peak, they end up losing a lot, veterans know when to buy and when to sell and have stop loss as well just in case so nobody really loses money when they are this much into crypto, they may but they at least know how to recover as well, which is why I think it is quite obvious that we should not have any sort of newbies buying at the top, but if we reach to 68k there will be a lot of them and if we drop %70 that will result with them losing a lot of money.

Cinsidering the numbers of new investors, they are here and ready to compete with other traders, willingly risking their investment
knowing that the nature of this market is to volatile.

We don't know what fate is waiting but there are traces that we can use as basis in order to assess mcu better, do your own research
and analyze everything it helps to keep moving forward with this business.

It will certainly have a decline in value after it exceeds the maximum ATH threshold.  But not likely to happen at a 70% drop of value.  Bitcoin has become the invisible force, spice up change.  The same downward trend in 2018 will never happen.  After bitcoin crossed $ 40k, it actually overcame psychology and turned into chaos for whales.  The huge deficit since covid 19 has caused institutional investors to want an asset called digital gold - bitcoin.  My prediction is that bitcoin works reach $ 85k by December this year.

Analysis is only one tool based on balance and normal weather conditions.  Based on this we can consult, make a plan, but It is not valuable for other types of rapidly changing trends with particular trends.

It's going to hit above 100k before August if history repeats...

May I know where'd you get that information as I don't see bitcoin reaching that high in just a span of a few months? Analysis and calculation might say that bitcoin would likely to dump as much as 70% for its price correction. But with all the factors and investors that came to bitcoin, it is unlikely to even drop 50% as there are a massive wall that is supporting bitcoin now such as corporations, governments, institution and business. We are now at a stage where bitcoin and other crypto are being considered as a way of transactions and payment with all the adoption and implementation that has been happening.

If I may predict the outcome of Bitcoin we might see as low as 10% with a maximum of 30-35% price decline as a correction once all of this are settled and stabilizes. Again, this is just my "own" prediction based on different factors and my personal opinion.

I think he just typo, he thinks $20K as OP says, Op mention back to $20K, this is the bad scenario of Bitcoin, and I think this not gonna happen in a short time, maybe we will see this drop after a big correction like 2017. My knowledge to read the chart is not good but based on the experience I will agree with OP,  we will see the massive drop

There will be drop in the price but I don't think we will go back to 20k again. The support now is very strong because a lot of financial institutions are buying large stash of bitcoin. Unless, they will cash out their holdings to lower prices. I don't think these institutions are looking at short-term profit. There are too much going on now in crypto and dropping it hard is I believe not gonna happen.

If there is a big demand from the institutional or a big company that want to buy bitcoin, that can also give a chance for the price to start rise.
If those newbies do not know when they need to buy bitcoin, they will follow the hype, and they will not have a chance to make a profit, even for making a small profit.
We can not blame them for buying at the top, but we can tell them not to buy bitcoin when the price starts the rally, especially if the rally is happening fast.
If they can analyze the market, that will be better for them because they will know when they can buy and sell bitcoin at the right time.

To be honest, top is impossible to identify this time.
And yes, newbie can't be blame if which price they will start buying. Buy speaking of profits, I don't think if they will start buying on these prices they will have a short term target for Bitcoin, it will literally long term.
That's why if you can see there are lot of Bitcoin outflows on some exchanges, that could be mean those Bitcoin will be stored on personal Bitcoin wallet and probably will be hold for long term.

Pattern:
Bitcoin has always increased after the halving.
ATH is about a year after the halving. We have a few more months to go.
Crash deep point you are talking about is 300 days after ATH

Values:
$1200 then crash to $162 then 117x increase to $19000
$19000 then crash to $3000 .... (speculation) 117x increase is $351000
(Crashes are to 1/6th of ATH)

Parabolic phase:
Bitcoin has a parabolic phase of 30days before it comes crashing down.
Went from $6000 - $19000 in about 30 days. That’s a 300% increase.
This fact alone puts BTC easily at $174000


Currently we are at a 19x increase so much more potential to go up.
Currently few months left so much more potential to go up.
Currently we are not going parabolic so this is not even 1/3rd of the coming ATH.

THIS IS IF FUNDAMENTALS HAVENT CHANGED!

I remain bullish!! And will sell some at the top and get my coins x3-x6 back in 300 days

Yes, it is impossible to identify the top price, but I am sure that people will have their own target price to buy and sell.
That will happen too with the company that wants to buy bitcoin in various price ranges.
If you want to profit from bitcoin, you need to know your target price to buy and sell, so no matter if the price fluctuates or the price drops to a low price, you can still use that.
If there are many bitcoin outflows on some exchanges, we need to be careful because that can make the price move to some high or low price, and we need to prepare the other strategy to follow the trends.

That key sentence there is "if fundamentals remain unchanged" and that is the most important part. I do believe that we will go up even more, we may reach to near 70k levels, but I do not believe that we will have a 70% drop, that part is wrong in my opinion.

We are bullish because of unexpected huge cash reserve turning to bitcoin by many companies deal, billions are coming into bitcoin, this is not a normal regular increase, which is why we can't really have any kind of shocking drop anymore, they will not allow it, billions will be spent to keep it up from now on. Think about it like stock market, they always keep their own money up because they care about that, they do whatever they can do make their stocks higher price, and that is why I believe bitcoin will not have a huge drop. Sure fundamentals look like it will go up, but nothing could show me a drop that makes sense anymore.

The drop is a correction for the FOMO parabolic phase. If there is FOMO there will be a bigass correction followed by FUD.

I agree that the drop should get less deep because of corporations buffering BTC and adoption.
I’m still anticipating the low after 300 days but the depth is unknown.

There will likely be a big drop and it will happen after price goes parabolic from everybody FOMOing into the market at an unsustainable rate and risking too much and therefore they will panic sell when they see money they couldn't afford to risk plummeting in value.

$68.7k is literally only $10k above the price we've already hit. There is nothing remotely parabolic about going $10k higher from a level where we just had a correction.

Price will go higher that that before the next correction, let lone before the year's peak. Peak price before a big sustained drop will be FAR higher than prices we've seen.

It takes time to build up unsustainable price action. History would suggest the rally will continue some ways into the second half of the year, we are only in the beginning of the 3rd month of the year....we likely have half a year or more left in this rally.

The more corrections we have the higher the price can go. Corrections are healthy and allow market participants to feel comfortable that the price chart doesn't look unsustainably parabolic. The fact that we've had two corrections in the past two months means the market looks extremely healthy right now, despite the fact that it is over 5x up in the past five months.

Most institutions are buying for the long term. Some will, and some already have, panic sell. Some will sell to take profit occasionally and try to get back in lower. Some have rules about % exposure of their portfolio so they sell gains and can't buy more, thus they continually get less and less after gaining exposure as the price rises. But most are buying to protect long term against inflation or to hold long term as they've seen the hodl strategy has been the best strategy from a risk/reward perspective.

Therefore institutions will have a stabilizing effect on the price. They won't FOMO in hard at unsustainable prices like retail investors do, and therefore they could extend the bull market by refusing to buy every time price has shot up too quickly. But they are making long term investments so they will buy in at good prices when they see dips. Both these things mean plentiful but short (a few weeks) corrections, thereby keeping the bull run healthy and sustainable. Because they are mostly long term hodlers, they are less likely to panic sell everything in a crash the way most of the new retail market participants do after a bull run ends. These means less likely to be a year long 80% crash and less likely to take three years to move through a crypto winter from peak to getting back to that peak.

Also because we are just at the start of institutions adoption and most of them will start by taking small positions over time, and as more enter the space that means more and more will later on decide to enter when right now most are not entering, all these means institutional adoption will takes years of gradually building positions and coming into the market. That is another reason why a prolonged and steep crypto winter is unlikely after whenever we do get this post-halving peak.

All this leads logically to two main ideas:

• This bull run has MUCH further to run and will last for a bunch more months. At minimum it should go significantly over $100k.
• We should maybe expect more like a 50% or 60% drop once a peak is reached, and shouldn't expect a drawn out bear market. Perhaps something like a a 12-18 month period from peak to getting back to peak, rather than three years, as institutional adoption continues and they jump at the opportunity to get in cheap. Basically, if there is a big peak this year, next year's higher price may be lower than that, but next year price will likely start coming back up, and 2023's highest price will likely be higher than this years, and market will continue moving up from there.
  

And for all your saying $100k by end of year...uhh yeah we're already in the $50k's and about to push higher this month, $100k will happen but it'll happen no later than this summer, and we could certainly hit $100k for the first time this Spring. By end of year if bull run is still going on price will probably be $200k or higher. My guess though would be a peak price in early Fall around $150k give or take a few tens of thousands, and then by end of year and for maybe first half of next year we'll be back under $100k, though perhaps not even falling to current $50k price levels, and be moving back up by second half of next year.

^^ +1

Only thing I object to is the limited time bear market. I believe the halvings and BTC algorithm lock the cycle to 4 years. But earlier is better  ;D

Thank you very much for sharing your analysis, now if it can reach $100k this year, why can't it reach $ 200k this year? what is the biggest limitation? I think that if the price reaches $ 100k there will be many sales, even though the institutions are behind it, but I think that many expect the price at $100k and if it arrives and some do not sell they will believe that they will have lost the movement.

Some traders will put their stops very close, there they will be able to liquidate many, since the traders will enter short and with leverage, if everything goes well in the world (If there are no more fundamentals) the price will exceed $100k and the corrections will be something more long, otherwise we could see more than $100k even this year.

Of course it is my way of seeing the market, maybe I am wrong in many things, but I am based on the amount of institutional investment that has entered and that will continue to enter the Bitcoin market.

You have your own interpretation. But it does not mean your interpretation is the same interpretation of other experts in technical analysis. Most likely your interpretation is so different from theirs.

I don't think a 70% drop is feasible at this point. I always think a drop is part of Bitcoin's rise and fall in price but I don't foresee how such a sudden deep plunge in demand happens when adoption has been making records not just among ordinary individuals but also among institutions.

70% price crash is too much and I don't think its normal in a bull market what realistic to me is 30%-40% healthy correction in the short term, I can agree that it may correct after hitting $68k, I know many institutional investors are waiting for a big dip before entering btc and the best range they will accumulate for sure is from $40k if it go down this far but I doubt it will. 

The 70% drop is when we go bear market. It takes 300 days to get to that low point.
Like from $19000 to $3000

In the bull market we get 30% flash crashes between upward thrusts which are basically corrections.

I do not think that it is about 10k more or not even reaching what the ATH was about, it is about people and who is investing. I have realized that bitcoin will crash soon (well hopefully not too soon) based on time and not the price, because the more time we spend around high levels means that the closer we are getting to dropping, it could stay at 50k for another 2 months and it could still drop from there without even ever reaching 60k, or we could reach to 100k in 2 months and drop after that, same 2 months, it drops after it, just makes different moves during that same 2 month but both result with the same.

This doesn't mean that we have 2 months left, maybe it will start dropping tomorrow, maybe it will do it 1 year later, I just want to point out that it is time that matters and not the amount if you ask me, because the more we stay like this, the more newbies get in and make stupid moves and create a panic sell situation.

I care nothing about what will happen soon because for all i care?

I will Hold my bitcoin and Pump or Dump ? Let it be  ;D ;D ;D

Im not the wildly bullish type but I wouldnt equate 70k to the 2017 year end high that sold off so badly.   I think I can remember 2017 clearly enough and we seem to have been far more stable at the top this time so I doubt such a fall happens this year.   
70k does match something Tone Vays said though and its fair for a mid point maybe even a high for this year but Im thinking it does reach a new high after that without a giant pullback especially.  [I did think possible 20k as feasible scenario in extremis for a pin down type scenario ie. not a closing bar just a rushed and reversed sell on 4hr or daily bar; I guess that equates to OP scenario]
   Anyhow near term top I was pencilling in prices in this way on the daily (https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/Aj6Aq.png) ; theres many ledges below hence my doubt to a major bearish situ and any ceiling now I see as ascending positively fairly light touch.

I do not know how likely this actually is, people are thinking that we are going to see a repetition of the previous bull run but now the circumstances are completely different, now we have institutional investors that are not going to let the price of bitcoin to drop so low, so if people begin to sell their coins you can be sure they will begin to use their reserves to buy even more bitcoin which will slow down any drop that we may see during the next months.

Predictions are predictions. We do not know if that prediction will happen or not, but if we can prepare for the drops, we do not have to worry because we can use that time to our benefit if that happens. That will be a good time to buy as much bitcoin as possible, especially if the bitcoin price drops a lot. We already see how high the bitcoin price increase, but we do not know how deep the price can drop, so if we can sell some bitcoin at the peak, we can buy back that amount when the price is down.

Correct, which is exactly why I'm talking about the likelihood of something happening, the massive drop that we saw in the crash of 2017 happened in a market that was completely different than the one that we have now, the market was not anywhere near as solid as it is now, institutional investors most likely are not going to let something like that happen which is why I do not really believe that the prediction of a crash that is so big will actually come to happen.

We should learned from the past and keep our investment to a better place.

We all know that in anyhow this bearish market might happened again, like how it went way back 2017. But with institutional investors that now flowing around there's much a higher chance that correction may not go that low or if in case if does, those investors are willing to take that and carry it back.

So basically Bitcoin could drop again beneath $20k? Has it ever happened before that Bitcoin reached and broke the old ATH and then went down below it again after making new ATH? I do not think so, but nothing is impossible in crypto so yes,,, be prepared for the big big dump if it happens and hold on tight;)

What I have seen so far, from early 2017, basically everything can happen in BTCUSD (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/). It can be at an ATH and 2 Monty later be at -90% from that ATH again. Me personally I do quick day trades and have a hodl wallet. everything in between is more gambling to me

I agree even though Bitcoin is volatile at times, its not dropping this much without giving many opportunities to exit at various prices if wanted.   What will happen if -70% peak to trough were to occur would be a cycle, repeated waves up and down and a notable failure to beat the previous high registered in those waves.   You would get alot of chances to sell at the higher prices rather then being forced to sell at the lowest prices during a month, people forced to sell are usually leveraged or forcing themselves via a panic response.
   Avoid putting yourself into a place of panic and hype and it will benefit you more overall, Bitcoin has been a marathon in its nature not a sprint despite the appearance of rapid gains really the best profit was accumulated between years.   Very few of us can trade perfectly and spot tops, Iam one of the more bearish people on this forum while still being net long overall but I would not say with any certainty we have put in a high for the year.   The effects of weak currency make price accuracy really far more unknown but also high prices are far easier now then they would have been five years ago with less QE performed or higher bond rates and other factors.
  Obviously Bitcoin itself as a market and and a protocol has come some way also and every week month year we gain more people involved I hope this continues but it will take time and almost always price gets ahead of the base line progression so we must pullback to stay within reasonable grounds imo.   That outlook keeps me positive even if we were to pull back to 20k plus I know markets just arent the perfect solid clock people think they are, sometimes the price will wave up and down purely in reaction not a stable reading.

Relying on technical analysis for a general assessment of the current situation i would not completely agree with it. A lot of scenarios are being imagined by everyone, i personally keep the view from the beginning of the season until now that the uptrend will continue, and after everything calms down, people will regret that if their can buy more bitcoins. But on the contrary, if this drop happens then nothing, we have altcoins.

Speculation and TA is just a BS for me , there are tons of those coming out but only few comes true so what can we expect?
70% drop is a stupid belief because i would rather believe my own instinct than those TA bs.

Not all technical analysis will function properly to predict the price, sometime fundamental analysis will also be of great help to holder to receive a surprise for the bitcoin they have stored for a long time. Someone has asked me personally about how I think about bitcoin after hitting the current new ATH. I certainly consider the support of institutional investor who have deposite large reserves of their money in bitcoin and me told him that bitcoin would no longer fall at a price of $ 30K. Institutional investors' confidence in bitcoin is growing and they seem to be competing to enter and invest in it. Apart from all that, we also can't guarantee that the price of bitcoin will last like this if institutional investor start to attract and secure their profit in fiat.

When TA is based on good maths and science, then it is not BS, which is why I have confirmed that at least a 70% drop is underway. It's just math.

BS for those people who have used up technicals but still end up on being a failure on high ratio but actually if its done correctly and carefully then i dont see for it to be BS.

This is much more better rather than on making trades without any analysis or basis which would really be ending up your trading to be just a guessing game.

70% drop? Everything is possible but in other side of things where we do try to check out the level of adoption compared back into the past then we can make out
presumptions that it is really a hard thing to believe on but hey, you should always be prepared.

This is the basic hypothesis, it can still happen, but in my opinion this rate is not much.  We all know the cryptocurrency market and lead by bitcoin has always been dominated and constrained by so many factors, most importantly government, regulation.  That keeps me ready and alert to maintain my strategies in special situations.  But with bitcoin's growth this year, it looks exceptional, and in the 1 trillion-fueled asset space, confidence is skyrocketing.  I think under normal conditions, there wouldn't be such a 70% escape.  It will be maintained high by the bulls.

The truth is, I just don't want to say this a foolishness. People are deceiving themselves by constantly losing faith in what they were hoping for, isn't it stupid? If this is the case, I am sure they will never be able to profit from this market.

Precisely! it's pure stupidity since after you believe and support then you question your assesment?

You'll  not succeed in any investment platforms if you have such kind of mentalities. If you are easy

to move by trends and other's opinion. It's very important to work with your own success, acceptance

if you failed and willingness to move forward and take another try.

I see the same possibility, it could be 100k in a month and it could be 10k in a year, who knows what could happen with bitcoin? I do believe that we are still in a bull, sure there was a bad news today and the price went low a bit but that doesn't change the fact that we are still in a bull run, specially with these huge companies involved in bitcoin we will not see too much drop anymore, even if all the market gets together and starts selling, these huge companies can see this as a profitable deal and buy from discounted price and increase it.

That is why I think it is quite obvious that we are not going to see 10k price anymore, and maybe 30k could happen again, maybe slightly a bit under, but I doubt even 20k is possible anymore. I prepared myself for a drop like that and I think I can handle all the drops and wait for the price so I am feeling confident and not selling them yet.

As far as I remember that has never happened, meaning the absolute floor of this new bull run should be 20k, which means that at most the price can crash roughly 67% from its all time high of 61k, so the prediction on the OP is basically the absolute worst scenario that we could reach, but as I have said with the institutional investors now on the market and with no intention to sell and being way stronger than the weak hands we got in the past I think that at most a crash of 50% is the worst case scenario that we could watch.

Well, you guys are both right but also wrong. Speculation is wrong and should not be done, do not feel emotions and get panic and sell your coins, you are right about that part, but TA is not bullshit, I do not use TA neither when I buy because I have one thing that I do which is buying, no matter what bitcoin price is, 3k or 300k I will buy bitcoin and that is why I do not need TA for that, but I understand others who does TA, there is a logic behind it, it just shows the market sentiment and there is nothing wrong with knowing that.

I am not saying that TA will make you money or lose you money, all I am saying that it shows something and there is nothing wrong with looking at that, this is why I honestly believe that we should be not using only TA for trading and nothing else, but we should not be against others who use it neither. At the end of the day, everyone has their own methods of making money.

Correct, worst scenario, but I don't see it happening in this kind of bullish phase. We have super fast rally, then some correction and then the price started to pick up again. I even don't see bitcoin hitting $40k again as investors are buying at every dip that they've seen. Just today we have a minor correction, -5%, but now the market has regain some, just down to -1%. So in less than 12 hours, it has bounce back already and could be hitting $58k-$59k anytime.

We are still in bullish and people's mind side is trying to buy more and more in this season it's is impossible for Bitcoin to drop to 20K again. But based on data in 2017 after long bullish will become the long bearish it's mean Bitcoin will dump massive. The question how dip?? 20K? I'm not sure about that

blah 70% drop blah blah blah.

The reality is we have only just begun to rally. I see 65k then 77k then a slow upwards sidewinder move up and beyond 100 k by the 4th of July 2021

All bears need to go backing hibernation until spring of 2022. We will be well above 180k by then and that is when the bears awaken.

I like this statement especially the fact that people are obviously focusing more on the Technical side of it that they have forgotten that there is also Fundamental that may affect the price of Bitcoin.

Like what this said, there are some big companies continuously accumulating more and more Bitcoin on a daily basis. The companies like MicroStrategy, Grayscale or even Tesla in the future are the ones that may trigger the biggest dump that may happen anytime soon since they are holding huge chunks of money. If that happen, TA will definitely be useless.

With what the OP has posted, I might agree that this scenario might come true only if these companies will dump their Bitcoin. A 70% drop isn't a rare scenario already since we've already saw it happen multiples times through the 12 years the Bitcoin has exist so I will not be surprised if this will happen though right now, the chances of it is low. There is still no sign of a trend reversal as of now but I'm having a feeling that in the next months, it will start to show some signs of reversal. :D

I think the same, a crash to 20k scares a lot of people but that is the worst that it can happen and I do not think it is very likely it will, to me there is an important possibility that we are going to remain on the current levels during the next months and we do not begin to see even more growth until the beginning of the summer, after all it has been known for a long time the first quarter of the year is for the most part the weakest of the four for bitcoin.

Many have already sold their bitcoins at the current high price and are eagerly awaiting its next big price drop. In all likelihood, such a drop will happen sometime, but it is absolutely not necessary that it will again be so significant, as much as 70 percent. Although we see that the cryptocurrency is developing cyclically, however, this accuracy also does not occur. This time, I do not expect such a significant price drop, as the structure of investors has changed. These are no longer small weak hands, now large business structures have entered the cryptocurrency market and they have calculated in advance when and at what price they will need to exit this market and how they will do it.

We all know that a crash is always a possibility, in fact we have seen the support level at 53k has been broken which may indicate and even more important downward movement during the next days, however a crash of 70% will require very specific circumstances for it to happen and I simply do not see those circumstances appearing any time soon, for that to happen we would have to be in a market completely filled with greed and making all kind of risky bets and that is not currently the state of the market.

currently, the price of bitcoin has dropped by more than 7% friends, and maybe it will fall even further if the $ 50000 support can't survive, buy gradually is recommended at this level, but you have to put a stop loss so you don't get hit by Rekt, or wait until bitcoin price indicates that this support is strong

Anyone who sold all of their holdings will be waiting for that moment where they could once again purchase the coins and even though a crash in inevitable we have no idea how much low it will go.

The specific circumstances will be the institutional investors that were pumping billions in the market and once they book their profit the market will crash and there you got your circumstances  :D.

Not sure whether we will be having a 70% crash, it all depends upon the market momentum and the global financial situation.

Then how you would see those indications for it to be the support or possible bottom?If you are just basing with some hunches or self intuition then it would neither be giving out two possible situations or results.
70% is less likely to happen but we know that everything could really happen into this market because we have seen those worst moments in the past and we cant just cross out those kind of probabilities
for it to happen so you should prepare yourself on things that might really happen ahead.70% drop might be seen as an opportunity but most people would already have the hesitance on making
investment on that time because impressions for bitcoin to be dead would really be there.

But the question is will it happen soon? We know that every single investor in the market wants to earn money that is not news, however if they really believe they are already holding the best possible asset they can possibly hold then why sell? I could believe this scenario could be approaching if we were seeing an amazing economic recovery and fiscal prudence coming from governments, are we seeing that? No, we are seeing the opposite which is what drove those institutional investors here on the first place.

I do believe that government finally handling economy a lot better would be very good for bitcoin because people who do not have money right now to invest into bitcoin will be capable of investing into bitcoin. A good economy means everyone can have some money to invest and they can have excess money for their savings account, this will increase the price of bitcoin for sure.

I do believe that governments screwing up the economy is great for bitcoin as well, we have seen that, because in the end people see that governments are handling economy horribly so they put their money into bitcoin to basically run away and not be in it when fiat gets screwed. In both cases bitcoin is the way to go, people will always pick bitcoin, it doesn't matter how the fiat economy goes, up or down, because in either direction bitcoin will be the choice of the people.

Too really deep for us to consider on going back into these price levels where 70% drop isnt something that can be easily seen if we do base up on the current market trend and on people

and companies who had jumped in into this market and basing off with this level of adoption or recognition then crashing the price as bad of that percentage is unlikely to happen.

There are lots of strong supports below where people could potentially for them to buyback once the price had fallen into that point.We can reach up height but we wont be needing
these kind of extent when it comes to correction.

It seems that trying to chart Bitcoin is a rather futile effort and many analysts like to see patterns in historical behavior that have little bearing on what will happen in the future. Very few people really could have know that it would have blown up from $15k a year ago to the $50k range today, but you can be sure that people create charts that could have predicted it in hindsight. The implied bounce here is down to $18k and if we ever saw Bitcoin there again it would be in a state of freefall. What with the massive interest from institutional investors in a fairly static commodity similar to gold, it is likely that even a fall of 25% would see vast amounts bought up and this would reduce any future supply even further. It seems nobody knows the future of this volatile store of value and you could say that is part of the fun of owning it.

A drop can occur anytime, it can take a short or long period to happen. Who knows? All we have are speculations and in fact it's like investors say: you can't predict the future based on what has already happened in the past. What happened before isn't a measurer to say what is going to happen next. To sell big chunks of bitcoin based on these predictions is always a risky deal, because there is a potential chance you are wasting a golden ticket to the moon.

Someone I follow made a good point there is a gap at 54k from Fridays main market close.  What happens with gap in price often is the price action will retract to fill that gap and create some volume of bids and offers around that price and confirm we are correct to rise from there.   Like an air pocket till we fill that area it represents something of a weakness or soft spot, it doesnt have to fill up immediately especially if we are pushing ahead with momentum but eventually these areas will tend to be filled up.

Looks like you are confident that the market would rally till the springs of next year and the price moving above $180k which is really crazy considering it has to rally three folds from the current market valuation for the bears to wake up. I wonder what crazy transaction fees we would be shelling out if that is the case. I am not expecting those valuation but i wont be surprised if it rallies according to your dreams  :D.

With so many institutions investing in Bitcoin I doubt Bitcoin will drop by 70%, because institutions don't invest in Bitcoin for the short term.
This is what causes Bitcoin fundamentals to be very strong this year, because most institutions invest in Bitcoin for the long term. This means
that Bitcoin must have a very strong support price and will not just drop to 70%. Therefore the correction that occurred a few days ago Bitcoin
only fell to $ 52k. And there is no need to worry that Bitcoin will drop to 70%,  my opinion is that Bitcoin will only drop by about 20% if it manages
to touch the price of $ 68,700.

Way too far off to consider on making out some discussions into those level of prices which its really hard for us to consider that we would really be reaching out that level.

Why cant people just stick out with 60k-100k range? We cant just reach out those above without riding off with the waves, seeing that we do even a hard time on breaking this 60k resistance
and struggling.

Patience would be tested because not all would really be having that kind of behavior or qualities. Drops of 70% can really happen but not likely on this time.

The problem that I see with this theory is that people as long as there are jobs and they can use their currency to buy stuff that they want they do not really care about anything else, bitcoin is not like stocks or any other asset around the world, bitcoin was created because satoshi thought that the current way in which governments are managing their currencies is wrong, if the economy is doing well there is not really any kind of incentive for people or companies to come to this market, and we know this is true because institutional investors have claimed that the reason they bought bitcoin was because they have lost confidence in the dollar.

Even professional traders hard to predict the Bitcoin price, and you say will drop to 70%. Actually, for me prediction is just words, i don't trust any prediction, my mind is simple HOLD. No matter what happens next just HOLD. Even though I'm a holder, maybe this year i will sell all of my assets

May occur, theres always some probability same as anything like a massive earthquake in Japan or whatever natural phenomena that far outranks our perfect view of the world and forthcoming events planned out.
   In a normal view theres no special reason for a fall right now though its fair that a larger pull back occurs it doesnt have to.   We already got the 50 day average as a low recently and that might be all the weakness seen for some time yet.   

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AVe2l.png

 Right this moment i see the price as skipping along a similar price line and equate that to a stone skipping across a still lake, eventually it stops staying just above and sinks.   But till it moves its not yet weakness really.

This is something we have to see, surprising that it will fall to the $10k level again only a pandemic like COVID will make it drop to that level again, we are in a new scenario it's hard to make a comparison on past chart to a new one, your assessment has if's on it, I believe that if Bitcoin will hit the $100k it will stabilize in the $70 to $80k level.