A 70% Drop May Occur after BTC Hitting Around $68,700

[katrina2]

According to the analysis, Bitcoin is in the Accelerated Uptrend Channel, $68,700 will be the Top in short term.

The recent ATH can be considered as at center, then we use the Fibonacci indicator to divide the upper and lower part of the rising channel. Based on the former highest point, we can predict that the Bitcoin price will retrace back to 38% Fib level, which is the starting point of this bull market.



From the above charts, we can notice that before Bitcoin surged to $68,700, there will still be 2/3 of the time that it is trading within the “buy zone”. In the short term, as the uptrend channel converges, the rising pace will accelerate. Then, a massive price correction will follow. However, Bitcoin may break above $100,000 in the relatively long run. If BTC did plummet back to $20,000, then climb to hit $100,000, we will see asymmetry between the peaks.

[aoluain]

I would reservedly say anything is possible. Two weeks ago I replied in a post that Bitcoin
wouldnt have any more 20% drops, and here we are just recovering from one. So im no
good at making price predictions.

One one side I wouldnt be dissapointed if it corrected 70%, for me I would try and acquire
as much Bitcoin as possible again at $20,000.

How often do these price analysis predictions come to pass?

[Wind_FURY]

OP, or Bitcoin might never crash below $50,000 again. Because it's pointless showing us in "what range" Bitcoin MIGHT crash, if we don't know in "what range" the current cycle ENDS.

[jerrison]

I have been in the crypto space long enough to understand that the technical analysis is applicable to all trading activities but more than the technical analysis is the fundamental analysis that will tell you a tale of surprises when the global events and occurrences play out. With the likes of Grayscale and Microstrategy playing out in this space, reducing the available floating circulation of bitcoin and converting a significant amount of their financial balance sheet to Bitcoin, there is no doubt that the price of bitcoin might not play by the rules of technical analysis.The bulls are in the market and they didn't come to play games with their reserves as bitcoin has also been known as a store of value and not just a just a medium of exchange.

According to the analysis, Bitcoin is in the Accelerated Uptrend Channel, $68,700 will be the Top in short term.

The recent ATH can be considered as at center, then we use the Fibonacci indicator to divide the upper and lower part of the rising channel. Based on the former highest point, we can predict that the Bitcoin price will retrace back to 38% Fib level, which is the starting point of this bull market.



From the above charts, we can notice that before Bitcoin surged to $68,700, there will still be 2/3 of the time that it is trading within the “buy zone”. In the short term, as the uptrend channel converges, the rising pace will accelerate. Then, a massive price correction will follow. However, Bitcoin may break above $100,000 in the relatively long run. If BTC did plummet back to $20,000, then climb to hit $100,000, we will see asymmetry between the peaks.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, or Bitcoin might never crash below $50,000 again.

May be you should correct your figure because bitcoin as at the time of this reply is trade at $48k and above bit not up to $50k as you stated.

Maybe you should read OP’s assumption in his/her post, to get the context of my post before you reply. OP assumes that ATH for this cycle will be $68,700, then crash back to $20,000. I replied, Bitcoin MIGHT not crash below $50,000 again, because the new ATH for the current cycle MIGHT be much higher than $68,700.

We keep watching the price to see what happen in the bitcoin market as it is unpredictable.

Unpredictable enough to surge to 6 digits?

[Lucius]

~snip~

I like your thinking, although I believe that TA makes some sense - it is never possible to predict based on statistics what will happen in the future. If we consider what happened 1 year ago, what TA could have predicted that?

I will also agree that all these big players do not seem to be betting on BTC in the short term, but that they have completely different plans that imply that massive corrections will not suit them - and then it is logical that they will try not to let that happen. Of course, at least from what we know from public data - the amount of BTC they own is still relatively low to be able to control the market, but their current impact on the crypto market is that their actions give a great deal of legitimacy and send a clear message that there is makes sense to invest in BTC.

OP assumptions could come true if we are wrong about what all these big companies are planning - because if they happen to start posting their exit from BTC, it would probably mean a big correction to the $20 000 zone or even lower.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I think that it is not the best idea to estimate BTC price (asset with 48 B $ daily volume) based on lines that are build on price action of asset with 70 M $ daily volume (BTC at the top of 2014 bubble) or like 0,5-10 M $ (BTC at the top of 2011 - i have no data about volume these days). Its completely different asset with completely different average investor profile (from nerd and belivers, to lambo guys who did not dump in 2018-2020, institutions, investment founds). Bitcoin may only struggle to break this line because of people that believe in this, very popular, analysis.

[carlfebz2]

OP, or Bitcoin might never crash below $50,000 again. Because it's pointless showing us in "what range" Bitcoin MIGHT crash, if we don't know in "what range" the current cycle ENDS.

Going back with that 70% drop is really something that is hard to believe on, if we do really consider on how strong those supports are below 30k price point then it would really be needing some

serious negative news or events to poke out this kind of possibility or market crash.We are just too big to crash like that but well, everything isnt really unsure yet on not to happen.

We know that the market could crash in least we do expect so therefore we shouldnt really be that on that confident side of things.

[thecodebear]

So but no real possibility of 70% drop from around these levels. 70% drop from like $150k later this year....sure that's possible. 70% drop from $68700 would be $20k. That just isn't happening, sorry. Way too much institutional money in the game not to go that low, and they'd be buying billions at a time if it ever even got under $40k again, zero chance of $20k.

[Stedsm]

@OP, I agree to the fact that a huge corrective drop is awaiting to take place in BTC once it reaches a new ATH above $63k (not your price but I saw it on the charts with higher possibilities of BTC reaching over there and then starting to dump).

But me agreeing to this has some limitations:
- BTC possibly won't crash over 50% (which means it won't be less than $25k)
- It will remain range-bound for some time and then, slowly recover

[Hippocrypto]

So but no real possibility of 70% drop from around these levels. 70% drop from like $150k later this year....sure that's possible. 70% drop from $68700 would be $20k. That just isn't happening, sorry. Way too much institutional money in the game not to go that low, and they'd be buying billions at a time if it ever even got under $40k again, zero chance of $20k.

What if the Op predictions would suddenly commence before we finally achieve $100k but not certainly this year, because that's too hard to be fulfilled due to several factors. Biggest hindrance is resistance, along with emotional challenges that every individuals is facing right now. The very challenging scenario to see here, is the FOMO of everybody then will result to panic once they couldn't survive the market pressures since many speculated that crash might happen randomly.

[crzy]

@OP, I agree to the fact that a huge corrective drop is awaiting to take place in BTC once it reaches a new ATH above $63k (not your price but I saw it on the charts with higher possibilities of BTC reaching over there and then starting to dump).

But me agreeing to this has some limitations:
- BTC possibly won't crash over 50% (which means it won't be less than $25k)
- It will remain range-bound for some time and then, slowly recover

Many anticipate the big correction to take place and they are waiting for the bear market. We might see a new all time high before the big corrections to happen but its hard to tell what’s the peak even the TA can’t guarantee that right now, we’re trying to reach the price of $50k again, if we succeed then new peak will happen. I also believe that 30% - 50% down is enough for the next bitcoin bear trend.

[magneto]

TA like this barely matters when it's seen in a vacuum from the macro variables.

The level of institutional adoption is astounding and I don't think that is something that can be taken particularly lightly. IBs and just holdings companies like Tesla will provide a pillar of stability that cushions BTC against flash crashes that we've seen follow BTC in the past.

Does this mean I'm suggesting that there will be no retracing in sight? Absolutely not. But the fall will be much less aggressive compared to previous cycles for sure.

[btc_angela]

In the previous bull of 2017, did we see a aggressive downfall to 50% though? I have to go back and see if this pattern did occur during the last great bull run we have.

So we need to go down to $20k before reaching 6 digits figure down the line? Really hard to see this happening, but we will see. We already know how volatile this market is, one thing that made me not believed this though is that bitcoin's narrative has change a lot, companies are seeing it a good asset to hold on their balance sheet, so this storyline might not held bitcoin going down to 50% or even more.

[Saisher]

I believe in reasons, cause and effect but 70% huge drop is so huge that it can be considered a crash of the market, yes we have that, but it's pandemic and this is something that nobody has anticipated, or predicted, if it's a cycle of the market, I don't think there is a good reason to give 70% these are just probability in a highly speculative and volatile market.

[adaseb]

I think if there is a top it might actually be somewhere in the ~$70000 area. Reason why is because most people will want to take profit at $100K. Or at least start taking partial profits. Yes $70K is not $100K however its $100K in Canadian dollars and Aussie dollars.

There will be major selling in that area. Look at all the people who bought before $20K broke or the people who bought in the $33K area. They will have significant profit at $100K. So most will start taking profit there, so I don't think $100K USD will happen. Most like $100,000 Aussie or Canadian.

[Kittygalore]

I believe in reasons, cause and effect but 70% huge drop is so huge that it can be considered a crash of the market, yes we have that, but it's pandemic and this is something that nobody has anticipated, or predicted, if it's a cycle of the market, I don't think there is a good reason to give 70% these are just probability in a highly speculative and volatile market.

It's good for people who wants to get in the market that has a very tight budget, I do think so too that 70% is a lot in terms of going down but considering the events that happened this past year and comparing it to the other crashes in prices, I think that the current model in the OP is not going to be accurate.

[thecodebear]

In the previous bull of 2017, did we see a aggressive downfall to 50% though? I have to go back and see if this pattern did occur during the last great bull run we have.

So we need to go down to $20k before reaching 6 digits figure down the line? Really hard to see this happening, but we will see. We already know how volatile this market is, one thing that made me not believed this though is that bitcoin's narrative has change a lot, companies are seeing it a good asset to hold on their balance sheet, so this storyline might not held bitcoin going down to 50% or even more.

No, there was no such drop in 2017. There were two main roughly month-long corrections of about 42% that year during the big bull run.

This year we've already now gotten two weeks long corrections, the first in Jan of 32%, and the current one of 26%.

No reason to see a 70% drop. Market is more cautious right now than in 2017, likely due to institutions not being as likely to FOMO in as retail. I would be we have several more 20-35% correction over the next 6 months as this thing heads to a peak very possibly around $150k.

[Yaunfitda]

In the previous bull of 2017, did we see a aggressive downfall to 50% though? I have to go back and see if this pattern did occur during the last great bull run we have.

So we need to go down to $20k before reaching 6 digits figure down the line? Really hard to see this happening, but we will see. We already know how volatile this market is, one thing that made me not believed this though is that bitcoin's narrative has change a lot, companies are seeing it a good asset to hold on their balance sheet, so this storyline might not held bitcoin going down to 50% or even more.

I also can't recall, nevertheless this year, we didn't have significant drop to 50%, so I also doubt that it can happen this month. Will be waiting for the price around $70K and see if there will be a major retracement after that. This is the first time though, that I've heard a prediction with graph and some valid TA to go with.

Nevertheless if bitcoin's narrative has change because companies are looking at bitcoin to hedge their assets and hold their balance sheet into it, then will it be a disaster for them to see the price going down to more than 50%? The most logical steps is to continue to buy when the price goes down to 30% though and accumulate again?

[orions.belt19]

In the previous bull of 2017, did we see a aggressive downfall to 50% though? I have to go back and see if this pattern did occur during the last great bull run we have.

So we need to go down to $20k before reaching 6 digits figure down the line? Really hard to see this happening, but we will see. We already know how volatile this market is, one thing that made me not believed this though is that bitcoin's narrative has change a lot, companies are seeing it a good asset to hold on their balance sheet, so this storyline might not held bitcoin going down to 50% or even more.

I also can't recall, nevertheless this year, we didn't have significant drop to 50%, so I also doubt that it can happen this month. Will be waiting for the price around $70K and see if there will be a major retracement after that. This is the first time though, that I've heard a prediction with graph and some valid TA to go with.

Nevertheless if bitcoin's narrative has change because companies are looking at bitcoin to hedge their assets and hold their balance sheet into it, then will it be a disaster for them to see the price going down to more than 50%? The most logical steps is to continue to buy when the price goes down to 30% though and accumulate again?

I agree, just imagine what could happen to Tesla and Microstrategy if we see bitcoin falling down to about 50%? All these institutional buying has definitely made some effect so while we can look at the 2017 trend as reference, this year's bull run will be different. It's only just beginning and who knows who else will join this train? Other than investment from companies, there's also crypto merchant payments to be launched by Paypal which I believe will be a very big thing not only for Bitcoin but for ETH and LTC as well.