A 70% Drop May Occur after BTC Hitting Around $68,700

[el kaka22]

~snip

I do not think that it is about 10k more or not even reaching what the ATH was about, it is about people and who is investing. I have realized that bitcoin will crash soon (well hopefully not too soon) based on time and not the price, because the more time we spend around high levels means that the closer we are getting to dropping, it could stay at 50k for another 2 months and it could still drop from there without even ever reaching 60k, or we could reach to 100k in 2 months and drop after that, same 2 months, it drops after it, just makes different moves during that same 2 month but both result with the same.

This doesn't mean that we have 2 months left, maybe it will start dropping tomorrow, maybe it will do it 1 year later, I just want to point out that it is time that matters and not the amount if you ask me, because the more we stay like this, the more newbies get in and make stupid moves and create a panic sell situation.

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[peter0425]

I care nothing about what will happen soon because for all i care?

I will Hold my bitcoin and Pump or Dump ? Let it be 

[STT]

Im not the wildly bullish type but I wouldnt equate 70k to the 2017 year end high that sold off so badly.   I think I can remember 2017 clearly enough and we seem to have been far more stable at the top this time so I doubt such a fall happens this year.   
70k does match something Tone Vays said though and its fair for a mid point maybe even a high for this year but Im thinking it does reach a new high after that without a giant pullback especially.  [I did think possible 20k as feasible scenario in extremis for a pin down type scenario ie. not a closing bar just a rushed and reversed sell on 4hr or daily bar; I guess that equates to OP scenario]
   Anyhow near term top I was pencilling in prices in this way on the daily ; theres many ledges below hence my doubt to a major bearish situ and any ceiling now I see as ascending positively fairly light touch.

[Silberman]

I would reservedly say anything is possible. Two weeks ago I replied in a post that Bitcoin
wouldnt have any more 20% drops, and here we are just recovering from one. So im no
good at making price predictions.

One one side I wouldnt be dissapointed if it corrected 70%, for me I would try and acquire
as much Bitcoin as possible again at $20,000.

How often do these price analysis predictions come to pass?

I do not know how likely this actually is, people are thinking that we are going to see a repetition of the previous bull run but now the circumstances are completely different, now we have institutional investors that are not going to let the price of bitcoin to drop so low, so if people begin to sell their coins you can be sure they will begin to use their reserves to buy even more bitcoin which will slow down any drop that we may see during the next months.

[ethereumhunter]

I would reservedly say anything is possible. Two weeks ago I replied in a post that Bitcoin
wouldnt have any more 20% drops, and here we are just recovering from one. So im no
good at making price predictions.

One one side I wouldnt be dissapointed if it corrected 70%, for me I would try and acquire
as much Bitcoin as possible again at $20,000.

How often do these price analysis predictions come to pass?

I do not know how likely this actually is, people are thinking that we are going to see a repetition of the previous bull run but now the circumstances are completely different, now we have institutional investors that are not going to let the price of bitcoin to drop so low, so if people begin to sell their coins you can be sure they will begin to use their reserves to buy even more bitcoin which will slow down any drop that we may see during the next months.

Predictions are predictions. We do not know if that prediction will happen or not, but if we can prepare for the drops, we do not have to worry because we can use that time to our benefit if that happens. That will be a good time to buy as much bitcoin as possible, especially if the bitcoin price drops a lot. We already see how high the bitcoin price increase, but we do not know how deep the price can drop, so if we can sell some bitcoin at the peak, we can buy back that amount when the price is down.

[Silberman]

I would reservedly say anything is possible. Two weeks ago I replied in a post that Bitcoin
wouldnt have any more 20% drops, and here we are just recovering from one. So im no
good at making price predictions.

One one side I wouldnt be dissapointed if it corrected 70%, for me I would try and acquire
as much Bitcoin as possible again at $20,000.

How often do these price analysis predictions come to pass?

I do not know how likely this actually is, people are thinking that we are going to see a repetition of the previous bull run but now the circumstances are completely different, now we have institutional investors that are not going to let the price of bitcoin to drop so low, so if people begin to sell their coins you can be sure they will begin to use their reserves to buy even more bitcoin which will slow down any drop that we may see during the next months.

Predictions are predictions. We do not know if that prediction will happen or not, but if we can prepare for the drops, we do not have to worry because we can use that time to our benefit if that happens. That will be a good time to buy as much bitcoin as possible, especially if the bitcoin price drops a lot. We already see how high the bitcoin price increase, but we do not know how deep the price can drop, so if we can sell some bitcoin at the peak, we can buy back that amount when the price is down.

Correct, which is exactly why I'm talking about the likelihood of something happening, the massive drop that we saw in the crash of 2017 happened in a market that was completely different than the one that we have now, the market was not anywhere near as solid as it is now, institutional investors most likely are not going to let something like that happen which is why I do not really believe that the prediction of a crash that is so big will actually come to happen.

[Pamadar]

The price now is at $59k-$60k, and I can not imagine how deep the price will go down because it can attract a big panic from people who does not ready for the downtrend. We already saw what happened in 2017, and maybe that time will happen again sooner or later, so if you are not ready, you will panic and shock and even you can lose your chance to make a profit at a high price. We can hope that with many institutional investors invest in bitcoin, they will not let the price go down deeper.

We should learned from the past and keep our investment to a better place.

We all know that in anyhow this bearish market might happened again, like how it went way back 2017. But with institutional investors that now flowing around there's much a higher chance that correction may not go that low or if in case if does, those investors are willing to take that and carry it back.

[leea-1334]

So basically Bitcoin could drop again beneath $20k? Has it ever happened before that Bitcoin reached and broke the old ATH and then went down below it again after making new ATH? I do not think so, but nothing is impossible in crypto so yes,,, be prepared for the big big dump if it happens and hold on tight;)

[New.in.trading]

According to the analysis, Bitcoin is in the Accelerated Uptrend Channel, $68,700 will be the Top in short term.

The recent ATH can be considered as at center, then we use the Fibonacci indicator to divide the upper and lower part of the rising channel. Based on the former highest point, we can predict that the Bitcoin price will retrace back to 38% Fib level, which is the starting point of this bull market.



From the above charts, we can notice that before Bitcoin surged to $68,700, there will still be 2/3 of the time that it is trading within the “buy zone”. In the short term, as the uptrend channel converges, the rising pace will accelerate. Then, a massive price correction will follow. However, Bitcoin may break above $100,000 in the relatively long run. If BTC did plummet back to $20,000, then climb to hit $100,000, we will see asymmetry between the peaks.

What I have seen so far, from early 2017, basically everything can happen in BTCUSD. It can be at an ATH and 2 Monty later be at -90% from that ATH again. Me personally I do quick day trades and have a hodl wallet. everything in between is more gambling to me

[STT]

The 70% drop is when we go bear market. It takes 300 days to get to that low point.

I agree even though Bitcoin is volatile at times, its not dropping this much without giving many opportunities to exit at various prices if wanted.   What will happen if -70% peak to trough were to occur would be a cycle, repeated waves up and down and a notable failure to beat the previous high registered in those waves.   You would get alot of chances to sell at the higher prices rather then being forced to sell at the lowest prices during a month, people forced to sell are usually leveraged or forcing themselves via a panic response.
   Avoid putting yourself into a place of panic and hype and it will benefit you more overall, Bitcoin has been a marathon in its nature not a sprint despite the appearance of rapid gains really the best profit was accumulated between years.   Very few of us can trade perfectly and spot tops, Iam one of the more bearish people on this forum while still being net long overall but I would not say with any certainty we have put in a high for the year.   The effects of weak currency make price accuracy really far more unknown but also high prices are far easier now then they would have been five years ago with less QE performed or higher bond rates and other factors.
  Obviously Bitcoin itself as a market and and a protocol has come some way also and every week month year we gain more people involved I hope this continues but it will take time and almost always price gets ahead of the base line progression so we must pullback to stay within reasonable grounds imo.   That outlook keeps me positive even if we were to pull back to 20k plus I know markets just arent the perfect solid clock people think they are, sometimes the price will wave up and down purely in reaction not a stable reading.

[FairUser]

Relying on technical analysis for a general assessment of the current situation i would not completely agree with it. A lot of scenarios are being imagined by everyone, i personally keep the view from the beginning of the season until now that the uptrend will continue, and after everything calms down, people will regret that if their can buy more bitcoins. But on the contrary, if this drop happens then nothing, we have altcoins.

[peter0425]

Relying on technical analysis for a general assessment of the current situation i would not completely agree with it. A lot of scenarios are being imagined by everyone, i personally keep the view from the beginning of the season until now that the uptrend will continue, and after everything calms down, people will regret that if their can buy more bitcoins. But on the contrary, if this drop happens then nothing, we have altcoins.

Speculation and TA is just a BS for me , there are tons of those coming out but only few comes true so what can we expect?
70% drop is a stupid belief because i would rather believe my own instinct than those TA bs.

[skarais]

Not all technical analysis will function properly to predict the price, sometime fundamental analysis will also be of great help to holder to receive a surprise for the bitcoin they have stored for a long time. Someone has asked me personally about how I think about bitcoin after hitting the current new ATH. I certainly consider the support of institutional investor who have deposite large reserves of their money in bitcoin and me told him that bitcoin would no longer fall at a price of $ 30K. Institutional investors' confidence in bitcoin is growing and they seem to be competing to enter and invest in it. Apart from all that, we also can't guarantee that the price of bitcoin will last like this if institutional investor start to attract and secure their profit in fiat.

[proudhon]

Speculation and TA is just a BS for me , there are tons of those coming out but only few comes true so what can we expect?
70% drop is a stupid belief because i would rather believe my own instinct than those TA bs.

When TA is based on good maths and science, then it is not BS, which is why I have confirmed that at least a 70% drop is underway. It's just math.

[Hamphser]

Speculation and TA is just a BS for me , there are tons of those coming out but only few comes true so what can we expect?
70% drop is a stupid belief because i would rather believe my own instinct than those TA bs.

When TA is based on good maths and science, then it is not BS, which is why I have confirmed that at least a 70% drop is underway. It's just math.

BS for those people who have used up technicals but still end up on being a failure on high ratio but actually if its done correctly and carefully then i dont see for it to be BS.

This is much more better rather than on making trades without any analysis or basis which would really be ending up your trading to be just a guessing game.

70% drop? Everything is possible but in other side of things where we do try to check out the level of adoption compared back into the past then we can make out
presumptions that it is really a hard thing to believe on but hey, you should always be prepared.

[ivankoh]

According to the analysis, Bitcoin is in the Accelerated Uptrend Channel, $68,700 will be the Top in short term.

The recent ATH can be considered as at center, then we use the Fibonacci indicator to divide the upper and lower part of the rising channel. Based on the former highest point, we can predict that the Bitcoin price will retrace back to 38% Fib level, which is the starting point of this bull market.



From the above charts, we can notice that before Bitcoin surged to $68,700, there will still be 2/3 of the time that it is trading within the “buy zone”. In the short term, as the uptrend channel converges, the rising pace will accelerate. Then, a massive price correction will follow. However, Bitcoin may break above $100,000 in the relatively long run. If BTC did plummet back to $20,000, then climb to hit $100,000, we will see asymmetry between the peaks.

What I have seen so far, from early 2017, basically everything can happen in BTCUSD. It can be at an ATH and 2 Monty later be at -90% from that ATH again. Me personally I do quick day trades and have a hodl wallet. everything in between is more gambling to me

This is the basic hypothesis, it can still happen, but in my opinion this rate is not much.  We all know the cryptocurrency market and lead by bitcoin has always been dominated and constrained by so many factors, most importantly government, regulation.  That keeps me ready and alert to maintain my strategies in special situations.  But with bitcoin's growth this year, it looks exceptional, and in the 1 trillion-fueled asset space, confidence is skyrocketing.  I think under normal conditions, there wouldn't be such a 70% escape.  It will be maintained high by the bulls.

[FairUser]

Relying on technical analysis for a general assessment of the current situation i would not completely agree with it. A lot of scenarios are being imagined by everyone, i personally keep the view from the beginning of the season until now that the uptrend will continue, and after everything calms down, people will regret that if their can buy more bitcoins. But on the contrary, if this drop happens then nothing, we have altcoins.

Speculation and TA is just a BS for me , there are tons of those coming out but only few comes true so what can we expect?
70% drop is a stupid belief because i would rather believe my own instinct than those TA bs.

The truth is, I just don't want to say this a foolishness. People are deceiving themselves by constantly losing faith in what they were hoping for, isn't it stupid? If this is the case, I am sure they will never be able to profit from this market.

[Golftech]

Relying on technical analysis for a general assessment of the current situation i would not completely agree with it. A lot of scenarios are being imagined by everyone, i personally keep the view from the beginning of the season until now that the uptrend will continue, and after everything calms down, people will regret that if their can buy more bitcoins. But on the contrary, if this drop happens then nothing, we have altcoins.

Speculation and TA is just a BS for me , there are tons of those coming out but only few comes true so what can we expect?
70% drop is a stupid belief because i would rather believe my own instinct than those TA bs.

The truth is, I just don't want to say this a foolishness. People are deceiving themselves by constantly losing faith in what they were hoping for, isn't it stupid? If this is the case, I am sure they will never be able to profit from this market.

Precisely! it's pure stupidity since after you believe and support then you question your assesment?

You'll  not succeed in any investment platforms if you have such kind of mentalities. If you are easy

to move by trends and other's opinion. It's very important to work with your own success, acceptance

if you failed and willingness to move forward and take another try.

[tygeade]

What I have seen so far, from early 2017, basically everything can happen in BTCUSD. It can be at an ATH and 2 Monty later be at -90% from that ATH again. Me personally I do quick day trades and have a hodl wallet. everything in between is more gambling to me

I see the same possibility, it could be 100k in a month and it could be 10k in a year, who knows what could happen with bitcoin? I do believe that we are still in a bull, sure there was a bad news today and the price went low a bit but that doesn't change the fact that we are still in a bull run, specially with these huge companies involved in bitcoin we will not see too much drop anymore, even if all the market gets together and starts selling, these huge companies can see this as a profitable deal and buy from discounted price and increase it.

That is why I think it is quite obvious that we are not going to see 10k price anymore, and maybe 30k could happen again, maybe slightly a bit under, but I doubt even 20k is possible anymore. I prepared myself for a drop like that and I think I can handle all the drops and wait for the price so I am feeling confident and not selling them yet.

[Silberman]

So basically Bitcoin could drop again beneath $20k? Has it ever happened before that Bitcoin reached and broke the old ATH and then went down below it again after making new ATH? I do not think so, but nothing is impossible in crypto so yes,,, be prepared for the big big dump if it happens and hold on tight;)

As far as I remember that has never happened, meaning the absolute floor of this new bull run should be 20k, which means that at most the price can crash roughly 67% from its all time high of 61k, so the prediction on the OP is basically the absolute worst scenario that we could reach, but as I have said with the institutional investors now on the market and with no intention to sell and being way stronger than the weak hands we got in the past I think that at most a crash of 50% is the worst case scenario that we could watch.