Bitcoin Forum

After Jon posted his fake Rally!! thread BTCUSD went up about 30%.
Expect a huge crash now.

Maybe he is the Manipulator!

printing...

hung outside my cube wall...

I get the feeling something is brewing, not enough to bet on it but I get the feeling that the next selloff may only be days away with any potential upside near nil.

I even doubt that we will breach 3.2.
Why? People were made to believe that prices could reach old levels again by the short squeeze and now prices recovered somewhat the real sellers jump in. And they don't seem to care to get out a few more cents by placing orders they dump.

https://i.imgur.com/TcV9x.jpg (For all you Giorgio Tsoukalos fans)

Alright, here we go.  Everyone who bought below 2.90, it's time to cash out.  It's funny how similar this scenario is to the New York Bitcoin Conference Rally a few months ago, and look where we are now.

So, is that wall going to get pulled??
Mt. Ask is growing fast.

It hasn't been touched yet. As soon as that happens I expect it will disappear.

Did anyone sincerely believe any significant amount of new money was entering this pathetic system?  It's just old money changing hands, and as I've said before, you can't get the price to stick in that kind of scenario.  It'll bounce around after large drops and might recover to nearly the "stable" pre-drop price, but, ultimately, the price will continue going down as long as no new money enters the system; and, again, it's apparent that there isn't really any new money entering the system and there's absolutely no reason for anyone to put money into this sinking ship.

A week or two from now, it'll be painfully obvious that this recent "rally" was just like the New York Conference rally; and the long slow slide will continue.  A month from now we'll probably have made new lows.

[16:18:37] <amphipod> Dec03 15:18:21 mtgox       21.0000 @     2.90       USD
[16:18:37] <amphipod> Dec03 15:18:21 mtgox        1.0000 @     2.90       USD
[16:18:38] <amphipod> Dec03 15:18:21 mtgox       20.0000 @     2.90       USD
[16:18:39] <amphipod> Dec03 15:18:21 mtgox        1.5624 @     2.90       USD
[16:18:39] <amphipod> Dec03 15:18:21 mtgox        1.0000 @     2.90       USD
[16:18:40] <amphipod> Dec03 15:18:21 mtgox        2.3500 @     2.90       USD
[16:18:40] <amphipod> Dec03 15:18:21 mtgox       50.0000 @     2.90       USD
[16:18:41] <amphipod> Dec03 15:18:21 mtgox       25.0000 @     2.90       USD
[16:18:42] <amphipod> Dec03 15:18:22 mtgox    1,098.9365 @     2.90       USD
[16:18:55] <amphipod> Dec03 15:18:43 mtgox      310.0000 @     2.90       USD

This is when this wall was sold to.

The bot time is in UTC.

Wow..

Are they the same ?  Cant be..cant tell with the makeup..

Its uncanny actually, I love it..

that guy is hilarious.. love the hair..

How low do you want to buy coins ? 0.01 usd?

We know how much you love bitcoin.. save your breath

http://http://www.godlikeproductions.com/sm/custom/35c921f89b.jpg

I actually want the exchange rate to increase because that would be a sign that people are investing in the project (hopefully some of them not merely as speculative investors but users).  The bitcoin market will need to be many times higher than what it is now for this thing to really stick.  But, it's not going to rise because the credibility of the project has been utterly destroyed and no serious money, certainly not enough of it, is entering the system.  What's essentially going on is the same people are just shuffling money and bitcoins around on the exchanges.  More and more of each are getting collected into fewer and fewer hands.  There is no way, in that scenario, for the price to rise and stick, and that's exactly what we've seen for the past 6 months.  Price drops, then rises to nearly where it was before the drop, then levels off, then gradually declines, then drops.  Repeat.  There is no reason to think this is going to stop happening and I think anyone betting otherwise is a fool.

I'm happy to concede that it's possible to make money in this environment.  But, that's essentially bleeding bitcoin and if this keeps up, as it seems it's going to, then what's going on is going to trade bitcoin into oblivion - It's credibility shattered, it's value in perpetual free fall - until the project will be tossed aside into the waste basket of novel internet experiments.  Bitcoin will be lucky to make it as a footnote in internet history and if it does make it it'll be a case study on human greed.

So what your saying is, your a glass half full kinda guy... lmao..  :D

I dont think its nearly as dismal as you see it.  Maybe YOU should start spending them on real world items..

How was bitcoin's credibility ever shattered?

You can't be serious.  Just for starters, there's the MtGox hack, MyBitcoin, Bruce Wagner, the Polish exchange, the encryption bug, the obvious price manipulation, all those DDoS attacks on the pools some months back, CosbyCoin...

You can talk to me all day long about how none of that compromised the protocol and that the protocol chugged happily along the whole time churning out ~50BTCs every 10 minutes or whatever.  Here's my response:  Non-techies do not care about that.  They care whether the money they put in is safe, usable, retrievable, has at least the same purchasing power as what they put in, you know, all the things that have been issues.  Whether you like it or not, for this project to survive it needs more than crypto-nerds and former PC gaming enthusiasts involved.

You can't be serious. What about all those bank robberies? Shouldn't a fiat crash because of them?

Credibility shattered? Perpetual free fall? Case study on human greed?

This thread is about Bitcoin, not USD. Please keep it on topic.

In all seriousness, Proudhon, just because you've tossed the project into your own waste basket due to a price decline (though STILL up over 100% YoY), doesn't mean others have. We're not all as short-sighted. We don't all have time horizons of half a year.

You call it a "case study in human greed"... but you're the one who abandoned it because of a declining price. Others of us continue to build. It's more like a case study in perseverance and dedication - working on a project despite short-term price fluctuations, despite media cynicism, and despite convention.

Bitcoin is so much more than its spot price in a given month. Sorry that your understanding of it was so easily shaken - it must be somewhat depressing to be so fickle in one's endeavors. But cheer up mate, we'll keep working while you sulk and fuss about.

+1

+1

Epic, Proudhon was served...

:D

Back in October, proudhon turned into a bear troll.  I suddenly got the urge to look up his old posts...
On the way up, proudhon was an enthusiastic miner and also hyped the project a lot.  On the way down, since he wasn't making any money anymore, he turned into the bear troll he is today.
Fun fact: before proudhon turned bearish and started posting in the speculation forum, his top two forums by posts were Bitcoin Discussion and... you guessed it... mining.
I think proudhon is a case study in human greed.

He may be trolling but he still brings up good points, so attacking him personally is just trolling in itself. 

I find that Nagle actually brings up some good points that are really worth considering from time to time.  Proudhon? ummm...'not so much' (to understate things just a bit.)

Ok.  Ouch.  Those comments sting.  I'm being serious.  I'm going to think about what you guys have said and offer a sincere response.  At least this much is clear right now, I want to tone it down.  I've allowed myself to go overboard.  So, before I say anything else, let me say this:  Sorry.  Whatever direction I think this project is going to go, I'm sorry for being so glib, flippant, and aggressively negative.  A lot of people with honorable intentions have put a lot of work into bitcoin, and whatever I think is or is not going to happen, I need to reign myself in from being so disrespectful.  Thanks for the wake up call.  I'll post more later.

Wow that was an extremely mature and eloquent response. It's okay Proudhon, I just think maybe you've drank from the Chalice of Eternal Pessimism and Woe. It happens. The effects will subside =)

I really appreciate your candor.

+1

Most mature post I've read for a while on this forum.

Jaw dropped... :O

What is this?  Sanity on the Internet.  Maybe Bitcoin will change the world!

Fking loser. Because of scums like you this world is fcked up.

Not about bitcoins but about everything in life.

Thank goodness! The normal Internet is back. For a second there I thought it was broken.

The tubes were clogged.

omg.. im laughing sooo hard... :D  this made my night.. :D

Yep, I was similarly entertained by this thread... good stuff :-)

thanks guys, you made my crash day

pure awesome, I think I woke the neighbors ^^

kudos to proudhon for jumping his own shadow (if that's a valid saying in english).

Yeah guys its probably my fault... really bad timing on bitcoinica and using the full 10:1 margin.

Shorted when I should have longed, liquated when I should have just held in there and finally longed when I should have shorted and went to sleep. Now I'm poorer and thinking about that Albert Einstein quote:

"No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it"


I can put it down to lack of sleep largely I guess. Too much isolation and not getting out enough. The annoying thing is the whole time my instincts were right but I didn't really follow them. My emotion made me make bad decisions. I need to learn more discipline and self control.

Now I don't know if I should quit using bitcoinica or should learn from my mistakes and keep using it. I've got a small long position now with what's left of my margin.

WAIT WHAT?!
Who are you? Manipulator or his arch-nemesis?

What, so you are trying to say that the crash is your fault? Hmm...
How many btc are you trading with? Either a hell of a lot, or else you might need to get some more sleep.

Anyone want to bet that the bidwall goes back up Sunday evening?  He/she sold a few thousand BTC today, and will be able to pick 'em back up for cheaper at the end of the weekend.

MANIPULATA?

No of course i'm not the manipulator but other people that did the same or similar stuff as me probably made the market so volatile.

Just give everyone in this thread the rest of your $ since you're already throwing it away!

Actually, i'd like some advice on how I can turn my situation around to one where I am making money.

I think i'd just be better off if I:

* Follow my own instincts especially those in regards to well known bitcoin price cycles
* Don't hesitate
* Don't rush in either!
* Don't get emotional, or if I do get emotional control my emotions and don't make things worse
* Place orders rather than "quick picks"
* Get out of the house and socialise a bit more
* Get enough sleep

Caston, make a plan BEFORE you trade. And stick to the plan. Your plan must include confirmation and invalidation. If the price does X, I do A. If the price does Y, I do B, if it changes above/below Z, I will do C.

I recommend that you start trading on paper first. Then if you believe your strategy works, trade with small amounts of money. It's always harder for real, getting the price you intend and actually following the plan equanimously; There is no lying to the balance sheet. Keep records of your plans, your rational, and your success and failure. Guard against lying to yourself - I'm serious. I post much of my rationale publically (to hell with dissenters) precisely to keep myself honest.

Never trade more than you can afford to lose and do not risk your entire basket on one trade.



These two contradict. Your natural instincts are your emotions. Both are your cunning enemy.

Thank you this is good advice but I am more likely to do this on a spreadsheet because my handwriting is very difficult to read.


I'll try to give an example. On the bus I looked at my short position on my android phone and it was still going up. For some reason I got angry. I knew that when I was angry I would make a bad decision and I would lose money. I was so angry that I didn't care and I just liquidated my position. I knew that if I waited for Sunday i'd at least break even but I didn't listen to my common sense. So maybe I have confused instinct with common sense. As it turned out if I had of held the position i'd be about $100 ahead!

I guess now I have a well defined goal: e.g. make back what I lost without adding more to my bitcoinica account.

and I know the consequence of letting my anger control my actions so hopefully I have a slightly more mature head on my shoulders now.

Emotion is your enemy. Remember that. The only medicine I have for emotion is a plan, because I am unable to think clearly and objectively while emotional. It does no good to pretend you are not emotional.

I am sure you will not, but I recommend you get rid of the android app. The absolute best thing that happened for me earlier this year was losing net access at home. At the end of each work day I slaved over the charts, drew up a plan, and took appropriate action. I checked daily movement on my phone (very expensive from my location) and if prices moved against my plan, I either sat it out (relying on stops and orders I had previously set) or reluctantly skied several kilometers into town. I spent a few weekends studying analysis. I now make more money and sleep better.

If you want to practice. Just make a bitcoinica account with a dollar in it. See if you can successfully keep a steady return on that dollar.

Guess what happened to me :P
I made a 44% return on my first dollar.  I thought, "Yay! I'm good at this."  Turns out that when I put actual money in, my emotions took over and I began to lose money instead :(

Hehe. I'm up about 48% (in bitcoin) over the space of 3 weeks or so. If you are cautious, rational and understand market psychology and the emotions of the players, you can win. Sometimes... If not, you will probably lose more money than you gain and spend most of your time 'catching up' to try to get back to what you started with. This is a bad trading position to be in, because you are constantly 'on-tilt' emotionally, and prone to irrational decisions.

I think the best way to deal with that is to step back from the market for a few days and compose yourself. You should consider all of the money/bitcoin you invest already lost, since you should not invest nor trade with more than you can afford to lose. Then you can trade more rationally. If you are trading with excessive levels you should withdraw to whatever position you are comfortable with and trade with a smaller balance for smaller returns. That way you can learn the market, and suffer less punishing losses when you make a mistake.

It also helps hugely if you have not actually paid a lot of money for the coins, such as by buying them directly on the exchanges. Earning them by exchanging goods and services for them or mining them, means you are only losing your time (and maybe a little of your money if you are a bad trader, but far less).

I have earned all the coins I am trading with, and it helps you see bitcoin in a very different light.
I am trading solely for profit in bitcoin, not fiat.

You have to have a clear goal as to whether you want more bitcoin or more usd. In a falling market, it is easier to profit in bitcoin than in fiat. You should not be buying in a falling market if you want to make fiat profit. All you will likely be able to do is maintain your existing fiat value by accumulating more coins. But this in itself is not a bad strategy, because when the selling forces eventually run out and the market turns to a rising one or the purchasing power of the coins otherwise rises in the future, they will still have value of magnitudes greater. That is what a lot of people hope for I would imagine.

Also, I don't use leveraged trading platforms such as bitcoinica, because you can be far too easily hoodwinked out of your money. I trade on MtGox directly. The returns might be less, but the losses are more easy to live with and easier to correct and hold your nerve through. When you use leverage, you are sometimes not able to sustain the deep volatility of the bitcoin marketplace without a significant amount of capital behind you and a lot of balls. If you are trading smaller amounts, it is much safer to trade directly on the exchange.

Ok, here are a few more thoughts.  To offer a partial defense of my mindset (not my tone, I admit to going too far), I didn't abandon bitcoin merely because the price declined so much.  I abandoned it because of why the price declined so much, and I still stand by my belief that the projects' credibility has been seriously damaged.  However, I'm going to back down from the claim that it's irreparable.  It's possible bitcoin will make it out of this and it'll be more widely adopted.  I'm not optimistic about it, but it's possible.


Basically, yes.  I regret it.


He's right.  I was hopeful about the project, not merely because the price was going up, but because it seemed like a very cool project was gaining serious traction.  Just to be clear, I've spoken to very few people IRL about bitcoin and even in my most optimistic days I cautioned all of them about investing in the project because of how volatile it is, and even explicitly advised against it.


For the record, I stopped mining even when my mining ROI was still quite high and it had much more to do with the heat in my office than the declining price.  I bought my mining hardware in late April/early May and it was paid off by the coins it generated in less than 3 weeks.

Again, I want to reiterate that I didn't turn into a bear troll because I wasn't making money anymore (I ended up way up in terms of overall money put in vs what I ended up getting out).  I turned because of why the price appeared to be declining and because it appeared to me and continues to appear to me that the prospects of restoring trust in the project to people not already involved is very low.

In any event, the bottom line is that I've been over the top, and I regret it.  I respect all the work everyone here and the developers have put in and continue to put into the project.  I would love for it to work out in the end and by that I don't mean merely for the price to be high, but I mean that I hope bitcoin ends up a secure, trustworthy medium of exchange/store of value/whatever.  Despite those well wishes I still doubt the project will ultimately succeed, but I wish to change my tone around here going forward.

Good reply, proudhon.  Your points generally make sense.
How would you address the issue of the negative public image?

All we can do is keep building services and shops.  People will come around when they consistenly hear about positive improvement in our economy without bad news to temper it.  We fucked ourselves letting it spike like we did and the only choice now is patience.

The opinion of the majority is overrated. Bitcoin doesn't require 50% of people to support it. Hell, it doesn't require 1% of the people to ever know or care.

A single group using coins, even if it is thinly distributed across the globe, would make the project sustainable. There are quite a few options for such a group, and it's not insane to speculate on one appearing eventually.

This will make me take anything you say from this point forward much more seriously.  I hope that I will always be this open to legitimate critique.  There is room for disagreement here (and in the world at large) but let's try to keep things civil.  +Respect

+1 Proudhon, well said.

I think it's important for people to see Bitcoin not as a pruned and professional new tech project, but instead as a Wild West/industrial revolution phenomenon. With that context, one can see Bitcoinland is simultaneously full of promise and danger, brilliance and scam, optimism and torment. It's tumultuous - and will attract both great and terrible aspects of humanity into the fray.

It's a battle of innovation, creativity, patience, and stamina against uncertainty, doubt, sabotage, and trickery.

If you imagine Bitcoin as some formerly pristine thing that has been tarnished, that is the wrong outlook. Bitcoin has always been, and will for a long time be, a disruptive technology... and legacy systems, whether cultural, political, or economic, should not be expected to give up easily.

Bit regardless of all this, Bitcoin works. And as long as it works, I'll keep working with it.

Back on topic!
I hate Bitcoinica spreads.  I shorted, the market went down, and I lost money. :D

That's nothing.

I pretty much am beyond recuperation now, the only time I made a stop loss it gets filled and bounces right back.

I now believe the only way to really make money with bitcoinica is:

Constantly watch for reversal points.
Only place Limit orders, never do a single market order no matter what.

Only use stop orders once you are in positive p/l.

The bad thing is once you miss the train (miss the turning point) one time you are constantly running behind. So place a limit order so you just get your money back and start over. If you are using stop loss at this point you are guaranteed to loose money.


But that all doesn't help me I am down from 400+% to under 50%  >:(
I was fairly successful until the 'manipulators' wall in such case you need to quickly switch sides if it goes against you not to loose money.

This is the devil!
I don't even mess with bitcoinica, but I have been burned on market orders. I avoid them at ALL costs. If the train rolls out and I miss it, I wait until it falls back. Too many times I played catch-up after jumping on even a little late. The only thing this doesn't protect from is if/when it goes up and never returns. At that point, I'll just take the small loss, and buy in when the dust settles.

Bitcoinica leverage does help when you're too heavy in either currency. If I'm on the right side of heavy, I try to make my trades on Mt. Gox and move assets over to Bitcoinica for the stops (although I'll admit stop loss has not yet helped me). I like that I can place progressively larger limit orders inverse to probability: short 1 at $2.8, 10 at $2.9, and short 100 at $3 (it's a sure way to lose your shirt when you're wrong).

But considering I expected a peak today at $2.9, I'm annoyed I could only sell at $2.8 on Bitcoinica. I think you need to be gambling for the 50% weekly movements. You can't day trade on Bitcoinica.

I've day traded for months on Gox and it became my personal style that I really was good at.  Trying to day trade at Bitcoinica is impossible.  The spread is too large, the swings lag too much, and the algorithm he uses is made to do that.  It forces you into this long period swing trader.  My first 5 trades at Bitcoinica I lost big.  Then I finally learned how to use it, but I could only make 1-2% positive trades here and there...but I could lose 15% in no time flat if I got impatient and liquidated in order to switch positions for the next reversal.  I'm still using Bitcoinica, but it's like grinding teeth.  I don't even use leverage!  He really has to tighten up the spread by tweaking his algorithm.  He keeps blaming it on volume, something to the effect of "If more people use Bitcoinica the spread will narrow".  An yet he is #2 in volume already.  Forex brokers advertise 10 pips spread...it's common to see 1,000 pip spreads on Bitcoinica.

I really don't know why you're using Bitcoinica without leverage. What's the point?!?!  If you were doing well before and you aren't on Bitcoinica, then surely you should move back to Gox.

I was working my way up from 1 BTC trades to half my balance and then start using 2.5:1 leverage.  I'm very conservative.

I definitely agree that the spreads should be improved. The lag is a very interesting point. E.g. when prices fall or rise the spread is way out in Bitcoinicas favor and takes a while for it to catch up. Sometimes the market may have swung back before the spread went in your favour again or it was only in your favor for a brief few seconds.


Maybe someone could make a alternate bucketshop? Maybe test it out on LTC first. Would be interesting if we could get better spreads with LTC even with much less volume.

Spreads are dependent upon mtgox orders, and in some cases they are even negative.
The trick is to long into sell orders supposed to suppress the price which you think will fail and short into orders supposed to pump the price.

The problem though is you must 'know' that it will fail because if it succeeds you're screwed. This tactic get harder and harder the more money you have because there will be less coins or dollar available. Also your opponents you play against will become more and more powerful.

Another successful tactic is 'calling the top/bottom' and is the only time a market order is actually useful. That is during a low volatility period make the biggest market order you can and hope others jump on.

Once they do quickly liquidate. This only works with 1000+ coins though and is very risky. Because if they don't you loose badly.

I now became in bitcoinica a weekly trader.

Also I greatly diminished my leverage, sometimes I use 1:1 for a while until a position go "against" me, but with 1:1 instead of that position auto-liquidating, I use my remaing spread to to improve my position for the direction I want (in hope of course, that the move against me was temporary and that it will reverse).

I am gaining money now, but I still have 2000 USD to get back all that I lost learning bitcoinica. And there are no guarantees that I won't do new shit and lose more 2000 :/

I still don't quite understand bitcoinica.

I only ever have 1 position. any additional buy/sell will adjust that position (base price and amount change). Are positions always unified into one position?

Yes, you only ever have one position, if you sell and are long you are liquidating and verse visa, until you reach zero after which point you go in the other direction. So in theory it is possible to trade even double your margin. (Highly risky but can be effective if you have sufficient power for the moment to kickstart a market movement.)

The base price is based upon all your orders you made based sum of prices/blocks of 50 btc.

"blocks of 50 BTC"??

Yes bitcoinica has guaranteed liquidity of upto 50 BTC. The price you see is for anything <= 50 BTC, if you trade more with a market order there is a few seconds delay in which the price is able to change (usually against you).

Yes your "positions" are unified into one position.  This is frustrating for me because I could swear when I was using Oanda I could have multiple positions, so I could see my stair step trades without have to look back at my order history.

Do you even know what an economy is? Also, the most high volume business Bitcoin has is most likely Silk Road. Why? Because they it offers them an advantage.

"Building services and shops" is completely useless as long as Bitcoin only serves as a middleman as in in USD => BTC => USD.

This creates useless overhead and makes no sense. If the businesses decided to use a certain percentage of BTC funds to pay expenses, however, it would be a different story.

It might be inefficient, but not useless. Bitcoin provides advantages as a middleman between far more currencies than you've mentioned. As one example, bitcoin offers most of the advantages of paypal, lacks many of the disadvantages, and offers unique advantages of its own. My only complaint about bitcoin really, is that so few people use them today. I suspect that will soon change.

Perhaps you mean that bitcoin-exclusive shops make no sense if it's only a conversion/transmission protocol? Maybe but I'm not so sure of your abundant use of absolutes: 'completely useless', 'only', 'no sense'...

One thing in bitcoinica's favour though is that there are no fees. I signed up with a CFD trader so I could make money shorting other tradables while bitcoin is flat and I did well today on a short position, however, I noticed that if I cash out I still lose on the entry and exit fee unless I'm willing to risk a larger amount on each trade.

*edit: Actually I did make about $8 which is pretty good for risking $50 but I am on the intro rate. Once I graduate to the full rate that profit would have been wiped twice over. That is why I will look for long term slopes to ride.

Even with perfect trades, I do not believe it would have been possible to have gained on any two bitcoinica orders in the past 24 hours.

I almost made $4 but the market moved against me when I went to liquidate. But I do remember I could have made more if I had of bought around $2.60

So do we think the market has hit the bottom yet or we've still got some major sells coming up?

My prediction was a return to dollar parity and we got $1.98 which was close but no cigar.

My opinion is that we are going down from here, but I thought that at the last $3 peak as well and at the smaller peaks before that.

I have also noticed that the spreads are awfully large lately. I wonder if Bitcoinica is trying to increase its take.

Well right now if I bought at market at mtgox I'd be buying at: 2.98991 and on bitcoinica: 3.0072

Maybe that's the thing about bitcoinica. Normally when you trade at a profit you just about never buy at market. Always put in extreme buy and sell orders and hope they get filled.
Bitcoinica seems to be @ market + the spread. The lag is probably the lag in the orderbook.

So my question would be does bitcoinica actually place orders on mtgox or just fill them?

Bitcoinica has a larger spread when there's volatility, and the longer a price holds (and the larger the walls on the sides of it), the smaller the spread becomes. At least, that's what it looks like to me.

But are the buy and sell @ market rates also far apart when there is volatility?

I love it when the spread is really close. You can buy and only be in the red a few cents for a short time if you bought the right way. I think I remember even once trading and being instantly in green.

So is it too late to sell now?
:|

I believe the price will continue correcting to above $2.5. Below that and the rally will have been invalidated.

If the price clears above $3.14 before correcting, then I expect it will climb shy of $4 before correcting the first wave of a major reversal beginning last month. If that optimistic scenario comes to pass (though I'm currently betting against it), the third wave rally after the correction (to the current iv price area) could launch bitcoin up to heights we haven't seen for months.

I expect we'll have a clear picture after this week.

Wow Netrin, you've been quite the pessimist up till recently..  Its good to see, and nice chart..

Can you tell me how you arrive at the colour bands ?  Are these formed from interpreting elliot waves like it seems your showing ?

Those price bands look like they're based on historical price support/resistance, not on Elliott theory.

I'd much prefer to discuss this on the Elliott thread where I'm otherwise talking to myself (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49462.msg641705#msg641705) in four pages. But yes, it is all Elliott, but not Fibonacci.

I count three magenta waves up from 19 November. Between the magenta bars thus far represents either a corrective fourth or a first regressive impulse. Above the magenta bar ($3.14) essentially confirms a fifth impulse (with caveat) and below magenta ($2.5) invalidates the entire count.

The green bar represents the fourth of the magenta third. And the gold bar represents the fourth of the green fifth. The fall from $3.14 bounced beautifully within the gold-green overlap and continued a wee bit over the suggested green fourth. It is no accident that $2.9 was a major bid wall, support, resistance, and bottom of a suggested fourth. Perhaps the manipulator is an Elliott occultist as well.

I count five waves from $3.14 to $2.61 (though they are not clean). If we are to expect a correction before continuing the rally, the only valid labeling is a zig-zag. The dark channel represents a possibility. The higher 'b' gets the flatter the zig-zag and the more likely 'c' ends safely within the lower magenta bar, thus preserving optimistic hopes that the major reversal has already begun.

I discuss this further in bloody detail (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49462.msg641705#msg641705) (with brilliant calls and embarrassing failures) in real-time.


I like to think 'realist', but I've been calling a December reversal leading to triple digit heights since early northern summer. This could hardly be called a pessimistic chart, at least not in retrospect:

http://genaud.net/bitcoin/2011/20111019-0200-yearDailyS.png

Oooops!  I should start reading that thread..  thanks :)

netrin: How did your supposed II.c.5 wave manage to stop short of a new low?  (Well, 1.994 < 2.07 but that hardly counts and your chart said $1 was coming)

Have you reevaluated your count?  Is there something I'm missing?

I do not definitively claim that we have already bottomed out, only that it is a possibility. To be honest, I'm having trouble counting most of November, which is bluring later counts. I've labeled the double drops to $2 (A-B) and the current rally to $3.14 and perhaps higher (C) as an expanded flat 3-3-5, which if correct would imply further drops below $2. I've rambled inconclusively elsewhere, so I won't further clutter up this thread. The discussion starts with S3052's critique (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49462.msg605848#msg605848) of my count and continues exactly a month ago...

Totally OT, I know, but I have a bitcoinica-related question maybe someone here can answer:

This is what my account looks like:

Margin Balance   $30.42
Tradable Balance   $29.49
Leverage   2.5 : 1
Unrealized P/L   $3.70
Net Value?   $34.13
Maintenance?   $2.23

I have this position:

BTCUSD   20.0   $2.7914   $3.70    6.634%

I hope that's readable.

Now for the question: I understand I can trade more than the $30 I put into the account initially (margin trading).

What I'm not sure about is how to calculate the risk of being zhoutonged (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49445.0).

As I understand, if the rate drops (in my case) low enough, bitcoinica will auto-liquidate my position and I'll be left with no money, right?

How can I calculate how low it can drop without margin call?

I'd buy more BTC at this point, but maybe this is already too risky? I'd like to allow the rate to drop down to $2.50. Am I beyond that point?

You need to look at your maintenance.  If your net value drops below that, I think you get liquidated.

Yes. This was confirmed by Zhou. I have not yet been Zhoutonged, but it seems to be correct.

I petitioned Zhoutong to put in a simple calculator for exactly that purpose.

If you want to do it yourself, just multiply the number of bitcoins by their purchase value to get their total value, then subtract how much you need to lose from your margin balance to hit your maintenance amount then divide by the number of coins to get the new price. So in this case, the liquidation price = (20*2.79-30.42+2.23)/20 or $1.38.

If you want to figure out how much more you can buy to stay safe above 2.50 at the current price. We will say $3. You just need to figure that each bitcoin loses $0.5 on the way down from $3 to $2.50.  So since your current net value is $34 and your maintenance is $2. You can lose $32 before being liquidated. At $0.5 per coin, that translates to about 64 more coins at $3 each before you get liquidated at $2.50... not taking into account the change in maintenance... so closer to 60 actually.

In fact, we don't even need a simple calculator.  Just put down a "Liquidation Price" row in the "My account" table on the right-hand side of every page.

Thanks for the answer, Dan the Man, that cleared it up.

Zhoutong said he was planning that, but still needed to work out the exact formula. It's not entirely trivial, since when the bitcoin price drops, your net value supplied by your bitcoin funding also drops.

That said, maybe reminding him won't hurt.

http://assets.diylol.com/hfs/8b2/23c/a1b/resized/scotty-meme-generator-she-cannae-take-any-more-captain-she-s-gonna-blow-1bc725.gif?1309391131.jpg

$6.15

Buying window narrowing, bear crusher preparing to reengage.

We're probably still correcting from the recent smack-down.

No big whoop...

Volume died down in the midst of a correction. In none of the last five hours did the Gox volume exceed 1k BTC.

The entire pattern so very much resembles what happened after the disruption in June. Rally overheats, correction turns into panic/chaos, then suddenly bounces into a rally back up. Once all the bidding is done, everybody stands in confused silence.

Ok everyone just step back now y'all hear?

http://images.suite101.com/2329829_com_dam.jpg

 ;D

if you just want to buy at lower rates, i suggest look into here http://cc2bitcoin.com/ grab them while you can, i don't think they will keep those rates low for long

we ain't crashing

Grab what?

at checkout they have prices in USD as listed there next to the items, i sow paypal logo on main page, figured i'd get some, but when got to checkout there was no paypal option in payment methods :-/
edit: and after i posted link here i sow Roger made an announcement for letting the site go https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61065.0

 ;D

Land Ho!

Yea, we just gotta get over that 'gulf'  ;D

The increase in BTC-driven commerce is the sign you should be looking for, not the increase in BTC exchange rate.

You are now free to move about the cabin.

lol

What's the picture of a dam have to do with anything? (Btw, that dam is perfectly functional right now :P)

it does look kind of crashy

got rid of all my bitcoins for now  :o

how about that 4.5 wall, are you guys gonna feed into that and below or what? don't stop midway, go all the way to the bottom

Well, its supposed to be an analogy of a wall and Bitcoins spilling through it  :P

I think this graph looks very bullish..

Dude you're absolutely right the peeps on that ship are going to get massive insurance settlements  ;D ;D ;D

lol
Aah, yes.
You can see that because they have their relatives videotaping the whole thing for evidence.

http://i39.tinypic.com/lxy87.jpg

Crash on the starboard side!

At this point I've become bearish only because of a desire to buy back much cheaper in the projected 4.5 or 4.1 zones. Hopefully watch it climb back up again from there. I would have been happy to have it climb right from here with bullish delight, but the big players 'YOU SHALL NOT PASS' walls of doom seem to have prevented it. I'm sick of staring at these super walls in the high 5 and low 6 area.

Yeah right, let’s just forget our own due diligence and listen to some analyst. ;D

We'll yes, I do listen to multiple analysts in addition to my own chart reading. Right now I'm a bullbear, I'm happy either way as long as the long term is up. haha.

cannot unsee

buy into that wall!

http://gifs.gifbin.com/092009/1251884907_bull_ride_fail.gif