Crash!!

[caston]

So do we think the market has hit the bottom yet or we've still got some major sells coming up?

My prediction was a return to dollar parity and we got $1.98 which was close but no cigar.

[Dan The Man]

My opinion is that we are going down from here, but I thought that at the last $3 peak as well and at the smaller peaks before that.

[Dan The Man]

Even with perfect trades, I do not believe it would have been possible to have gained on any two bitcoinica orders in the past 24 hours.

I almost made $4 but the market moved against me when I went to liquidate. But I do remember I could have made more if I had of bought around $2.60

I have also noticed that the spreads are awfully large lately. I wonder if Bitcoinica is trying to increase its take.

[caston]

Well right now if I bought at market at mtgox I'd be buying at: 2.98991 and on bitcoinica: 3.0072

Maybe that's the thing about bitcoinica. Normally when you trade at a profit you just about never buy at market. Always put in extreme buy and sell orders and hope they get filled.
Bitcoinica seems to be @ market + the spread. The lag is probably the lag in the orderbook.

So my question would be does bitcoinica actually place orders on mtgox or just fill them?

[trogdorjw73]

Bitcoinica has a larger spread when there's volatility, and the longer a price holds (and the larger the walls on the sides of it), the smaller the spread becomes. At least, that's what it looks like to me.

[caston]

Bitcoinica has a larger spread when there's volatility, and the longer a price holds (and the larger the walls on the sides of it), the smaller the spread becomes. At least, that's what it looks like to me.

But are the buy and sell @ market rates also far apart when there is volatility?

I love it when the spread is really close. You can buy and only be in the red a few cents for a short time if you bought the right way. I think I remember even once trading and being instantly in green.

[mobodick]

So is it too late to sell now?
:|

[netrin]

I believe the price will continue correcting to above $2.5. Below that and the rally will have been invalidated.

If the price clears above $3.14 before correcting, then I expect it will climb shy of $4 before correcting the first wave of a major reversal beginning last month. If that optimistic scenario comes to pass (though I'm currently betting against it), the third wave rally after the correction (to the current iv price area) could launch bitcoin up to heights we haven't seen for months.

I expect we'll have a clear picture after this week.

[teflone]

I believe the price will continue correcting to above $2.5. Below that and the rally will have been invalidated.

If the price clears above $3.14 before correcting, then I expect it will climb shy of $4 before correcting the first wave of a major reversal beginning last month. If that optimistic scenario comes to pass (though I'm currently betting against it), the third wave rally after the correction (to the current iv price area) could launch bitcoin up to heights we haven't seen for months.

I expect we'll have a clear picture after this week.

Wow Netrin, you've been quite the pessimist up till recently..  Its good to see, and nice chart..

Can you tell me how you arrive at the colour bands ?  Are these formed from interpreting elliot waves like it seems your showing ?

[ineededausername]

I believe the price will continue correcting to above $2.5. Below that and the rally will have been invalidated.

If the price clears above $3.14 before correcting, then I expect it will climb shy of $4 before correcting the first wave of a major reversal beginning last month. If that optimistic scenario comes to pass (though I'm currently betting against it), the third wave rally after the correction (to the current iv price area) could launch bitcoin up to heights we haven't seen for months.

I expect we'll have a clear picture after this week.

Wow Netrin, you've been quite the pessimist up till recently..  Its good to see, and nice chart..

Can you tell me how you arrive at the colour bands ?  Are these formed from interpreting elliot waves like it seems your showing ?

Those price bands look like they're based on historical price support/resistance, not on Elliott theory.

[netrin]

I'd much prefer to discuss this on the Elliott thread where I'm otherwise talking to myself in four pages. But yes, it is all Elliott, but not Fibonacci.

I count three magenta waves up from 19 November. Between the magenta bars thus far represents either a corrective fourth or a first regressive impulse. Above the magenta bar ($3.14) essentially confirms a fifth impulse (with caveat) and below magenta ($2.5) invalidates the entire count.

The green bar represents the fourth of the magenta third. And the gold bar represents the fourth of the green fifth. The fall from $3.14 bounced beautifully within the gold-green overlap and continued a wee bit over the suggested green fourth. It is no accident that $2.9 was a major bid wall, support, resistance, and bottom of a suggested fourth. Perhaps the manipulator is an Elliott occultist as well.

I count five waves from $3.14 to $2.61 (though they are not clean). If we are to expect a correction before continuing the rally, the only valid labeling is a zig-zag. The dark channel represents a possibility. The higher 'b' gets the flatter the zig-zag and the more likely 'c' ends safely within the lower magenta bar, thus preserving optimistic hopes that the major reversal has already begun.

I discuss this further in bloody detail (with brilliant calls and embarrassing failures) in real-time.

Wow Netrin, you've been quite the pessimist up till recently..  Its good to see, and nice chart..

I like to think 'realist', but I've been calling a December reversal leading to triple digit heights since early northern summer. This could hardly be called a pessimistic chart, at least not in retrospect:

[teflone]

I'd much prefer to discuss this on the Elliott thread where I'm otherwise talking to myself in four pages. But yes, it is all Elliott, but not Fibonacci.

I count three magenta waves up from 19 November. Between the magenta bars thus far represents either a corrective fourth or a first regressive impulse. Above the magenta bar ($3.14) essentially confirms a fifth impulse (with caveat) and below magenta ($2.5) invalidates the entire count.

The green bar represents the fourth of the magenta third. And the gold bar represents the fourth of the green fifth. The fall from $3.14 bounced beautifully within the gold-green overlap and continued a wee bit over the suggested green fourth. It is no accident that $2.9 was a major bid wall, support, resistance, and bottom of a suggested fourth. Perhaps the manipulator is an Elliott occultist as well.

I count five waves from $3.14 to $2.61 (though they are not clean). If we are to expect a correction before continuing the rally, the only valid labeling is a zig-zag. The dark channel represents a possibility. The higher 'b' gets the flatter the zig-zag and the more likely 'c' ends safely within the lower magenta bar, thus preserving optimistic hopes that the major reversal has already begun.

I discuss this further in bloody detail (with brilliant calls and embarrassing failures) in real-time.

Wow Netrin, you've been quite the pessimist up till recently..  Its good to see, and nice chart..

I like to think 'realist', but I've been calling a December reversal leading to triple digit heights since early northern summer. This could hardly be called a pessimistic chart, at least not in retrospect:

Oooops!  I should start reading that thread..  thanks

[ineededausername]

netrin: How did your supposed II.c.5 wave manage to stop short of a new low?  (Well, 1.994 < 2.07 but that hardly counts and your chart said $1 was coming)

Have you reevaluated your count?  Is there something I'm missing?

[netrin]

I do not definitively claim that we have already bottomed out, only that it is a possibility. To be honest, I'm having trouble counting most of November, which is bluring later counts. I've labeled the double drops to $2 (A-B) and the current rally to $3.14 and perhaps higher (C) as an expanded flat 3-3-5, which if correct would imply further drops below $2. I've rambled inconclusively elsewhere, so I won't further clutter up this thread. The discussion starts with S3052's critique of my count and continues exactly a month ago...

I'm playing with an alternate count based on S3052's comments. It does not necessarily change message, but does open up the possibility of further ugly corrective patterns (triangles, zig-zags, flats, oh my!), whereas the fifth impulsive wave of the final c should have been definitive.

...

[molecular]

Totally OT, I know, but I have a bitcoinica-related question maybe someone here can answer:

This is what my account looks like:

Margin Balance   $30.42
Tradable Balance   $29.49
Leverage   2.5 : 1
Unrealized P/L   $3.70
Net Value?   $34.13
Maintenance?   $2.23

I have this position:

BTCUSD   20.0   $2.7914   $3.70    6.634%

I hope that's readable.

Now for the question: I understand I can trade more than the $30 I put into the account initially (margin trading).

What I'm not sure about is how to calculate the risk of being zhoutonged.

As I understand, if the rate drops (in my case) low enough, bitcoinica will auto-liquidate my position and I'll be left with no money, right?

How can I calculate how low it can drop without margin call?

I'd buy more BTC at this point, but maybe this is already too risky? I'd like to allow the rate to drop down to $2.50. Am I beyond that point?

[ineededausername]

Totally OT, I know, but I have a bitcoinica-related question maybe someone here can answer:

This is what my account looks like:

Margin Balance   $30.42
Tradable Balance   $29.49
Leverage   2.5 : 1
Unrealized P/L   $3.70
Net Value?   $34.13
Maintenance?   $2.23

I have this position:

BTCUSD   20.0   $2.7914   $3.70    6.634%

I hope that's readable.

Now for the question: I understand I can trade more than the $30 I put into the account initially (margin trading).

What I'm not sure about is how to calculate the risk of being zhoutonged.

As I understand, if the rate drops (in my case) low enough, bitcoinica will auto-liquidate my position and I'll be left with no money, right?

How can I calculate how low it can drop without margin call?

I'd buy more BTC at this point, but maybe this is already too risky? I'd like to allow the rate to drop down to $2.50. Am I beyond that point?

You need to look at your maintenance.  If your net value drops below that, I think you get liquidated.

[netrin]

You need to look at your maintenance.  If your net value drops below that, I think you get liquidated.

Yes. This was confirmed by Zhou. I have not yet been Zhoutonged, but it seems to be correct.

[Dan The Man]

I petitioned Zhoutong to put in a simple calculator for exactly that purpose.

If you want to do it yourself, just multiply the number of bitcoins by their purchase value to get their total value, then subtract how much you need to lose from your margin balance to hit your maintenance amount then divide by the number of coins to get the new price. So in this case, the liquidation price = (20*2.79-30.42+2.23)/20 or $1.38.

If you want to figure out how much more you can buy to stay safe above 2.50 at the current price. We will say $3. You just need to figure that each bitcoin loses $0.5 on the way down from $3 to $2.50.  So since your current net value is $34 and your maintenance is $2. You can lose $32 before being liquidated. At $0.5 per coin, that translates to about 64 more coins at $3 each before you get liquidated at $2.50... not taking into account the change in maintenance... so closer to 60 actually.

[ineededausername]

I petitioned Zhoutong to put in a simple calculator for exactly that purpose.

If you want to do it yourself, just multiply the number of bitcoins by their purchase value to get their total value, then subtract how much you need to lose from your margin balance to hit your maintenance amount then divide by the number of coins to get the new price. So in this case, the liquidation price = (20*2.79-30.42+2.23)/20 or $1.38.

If you want to figure out how much more you can buy to stay safe above 2.50 at the current price. We will say $3. You just need to figure that each bitcoin loses $0.5 on the way down from $3 to $2.50.  So since your current net value is $34 and your maintenance is $2. You can lose $32 before being liquidated. At $0.5 per coin, that translates to about 64 more coins at $3 each before you get liquidated at $2.50... not taking into account the change in maintenance... so closer to 60 actually.

In fact, we don't even need a simple calculator.  Just put down a "Liquidation Price" row in the "My account" table on the right-hand side of every page.

[molecular]

I petitioned Zhoutong to put in a simple calculator for exactly that purpose.

If you want to do it yourself, just multiply the number of bitcoins by their purchase value to get their total value, then subtract how much you need to lose from your margin balance to hit your maintenance amount then divide by the number of coins to get the new price. So in this case, the liquidation price = (20*2.79-30.42+2.23)/20 or $1.38.

If you want to figure out how much more you can buy to stay safe above 2.50 at the current price. We will say $3. You just need to figure that each bitcoin loses $0.5 on the way down from $3 to $2.50.  So since your current net value is $34 and your maintenance is $2. You can lose $32 before being liquidated. At $0.5 per coin, that translates to about 64 more coins at $3 each before you get liquidated at $2.50... not taking into account the change in maintenance... so closer to 60 actually.

Thanks for the answer, Dan the Man, that cleared it up.