Bitcoin Forum

The price movement of Bitcoin over the last year has been extremely intriguing. We haven't witnessed that significant drawdown yet, which has prompted some to believe that the cycles have shifted and that we are now in what is known as a super cycle (bull markets and mini bear markets). People on Twitter speculated about a supercycle earlier this year, so it's not like it sprang out of nowhere. Personally, I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

I don't think that we can safely say whether those cycles got disrupted or not. At least not yet.
There's still long time until the next halving and many things can happen.

I also hope that institutional investors' moves could do this, but hopes don't make that real. We can tell for sure only when the "cycle" has ended.

Why don't you believe in the conventional cycles anymore?

It was predicted that Bitcoin price will increase after halving and it did. It was also predicted 2021 will be about price increase and it happened. It has been predicted that this year will not be that good but selling will be more, it is happening. All that was predicted based on previous last events are all happening. It has also been predicted that there will be bull market in 2024, Bitcoin will halve in early 2024, likely this will happen if history again repeats itself.

I also been calling out about this super cycles but we don't have any proof yet because obviously we haven't seen this kind of movement. So we will see if we will have 1 supercycle, or a combination of 2 mini cycle as bitcoin's narrative is also changing and so is the pattern and cycle. So really hard to see where we are going right now but hopefully the bears though as still in the sideline and let's hope that we will see bullishness still this year.

Per definition though, the cycle that we have seen so far is the "4 year cycle". So 2017 was the last great bull run and then last year 2021. And now it's supposedly bear market, but so far the market is holding it's own and barely above 50% of the current all time high. Unlike in 2017 wherein after the bubble is burst the price continues to go down in the next 3 months. But then again, this year we have different set of players in the market that maybe affect how this cycle moves.

I know about the 4 years, but now we are not in a bear market, especially as after the bull run we had one year ago and the following drop, the price did recover from under 30k to new ATH (!).
Nobody knows if this will happen again or we go lower this time. But if you put an equal sign between this drop to 50% and the drop to ~18% we have seen in 2018-2019, I will not agree with you.
So, as I said, let's wait until the 4-years old-fashion cycle ends and then we can look back and draw conclusions. Until then, it's more hope than analysis.

Too early to make conclusions lol. Do you actually think we've received enough adoption to not have a multi-year bear market again? While it's totally debatable and while we definitely made a lot of progress with institutional investors, I personally don't think we're there yet.

We can't predict whether this will happen or not, but it's clear that some people are starting to think skeptically about what's happening right now, yes indeed the entry of institutional investors is a bit of a breath of fresh air on bitcoin price movements in the market, but not wrong for us to anticipate possible possibilities bad things that might happen in the future, I think the OP has his reasons so he argues if we are now going into the supercycle phase.

Whether you believe it or not, the price, in its current condition, is above 2017 levels and has not reached those levels since breaking them last year.
Bitcoin cycles are called jumps that led the price to levels from a 1K dollars to 10kdollars to 100k dollars, and therefore if the price breaks that barrier during this year, the probability of repeating the cycles will be high.

In general, if we reach the barrier of 100 thousand dollars, it is almost impossible to reach 1000k within the next 5-7 years, and therefore this cycle may be the last.

Again, the price does not matter what is important is continued growth.

Looking back at how the speculation boards topics end in the next 48hours after being started one could give the chance of a supercycle happening tomorrow at 2/3  ;D.


Yeah, except for bitcoin not ever going below the previous reached ATH, the fact that 2021 was a far worse year for Bitcoin than 2020 as the price went up by just 30%, compared to 300%,  the 100k prediction went bust, the x3 claimed pattern for the ATH went also bust, and so on and on.
Predictions based on the last events are falling one after the other, they aren't happening at all. The only one that stands is that bitcoin is going up in price on year by year basis, which then falsely verifies some theories about clear cycles happening at fixed points.


The middle cycle had its peak at 20k, which would have meant 400k for this one and 8 million for the next one
Exponential growth is clearly impossible unless we have a complete collapse of the current currency.
We need to start looking at a relatively normal growth period from now on, I don't know what's the basis for poeple who think that we're going to see trillions of sudden investments exactly after a halving everyone knows about its going to happen.

Don't get me wrong, there are cases to be made why we could potentially not have those kinds of draw downs again, but I'm really just not fully convinced. And add the fact that a lot of people are expecting this sort of "supercycle"; it makes doubt it far more.

Im not sure we can count volatility as lessening over time, its not just the fault of crypto itself but obvious outside factors like politics and military movements.   Even trade disagreements can sustainably disrupt economies and so to BTC retracts under pressure.   This is fairly normal, my personal take for 2022 was revision and eventually bullish resolution so that would include the full apparent range for BTC.
   If we go from the ATH to the prior ATH that would be probably be near to the massive drawdowns seen previously, its best to believe this cant happen but in the end it is the eventual ability for BTC to endure and resolve upwards that is the positive despite the lows in between.

The ATH is 69,000, so losing nearly half of that price can't be viewed as "mini bear market". I agree that the era of big bull runs have ended, no more x20 growth between the previous and the current peak. The next price peak would probably be at around $160,000, and I won't expect it anytime soon, like not in the next 2 years.

IMO for supercycle to happen, there must be a very strong institutional interest, not from a dozen of companies, but from hundreds or thousands, including big governments.

I have created the same thread with a poll since last year about halving or supercycle which the halving cycle win. It's almost clear so far that we are still in the halving cycle. This supercycle that we have been dreaming of for a while seems not close to happening unless the market suddenly changes this mid-year.

This is the thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5377990.msg58779599#msg58779599

I'm however believing that in the next few months that if the price breaks out to all-time high to more than $70K, then I guess the market didn't wait for another halving before moving up again. Something significant has to happen though, what could it be is the real question. Hope it's not war.

Each halving brings market a good return after so Yes this will also give Bitcoin another strike after the halving in 2024 and this is 2 years from now , so if we can keep waiting instead of selling then surely we will be taking our piece of cake in this Bullrun in the making.
and also market is still showing strong hold at 30k level and even climbing to 40k this means we are not so sure about the supercycle or something in similar .

I don’t think we will have a 85% drop from ATH, maybe for other coins like ETH but not BTC. I know many want to load up when it hits 85% from ATH however there is a good chance it will never happen.

I think that this quarter we might possibility go to $25K and that will be it. If $33K wasn’t the low then most likely everybody will want to buy at $28-30K. So what will happen is there will be a big bull trap there and then it’ll drop fast to like $25K and be a big bear trap and mark the lows.

All the opinions about supercycles and conventional cycles are simply speculation.
Is the Bitcoin price even moving in cycles?The cycles theory is based only on the past historical data of the Bitcoin price.We already know that the BTC prices in the past cannot determine the future price of Bitcoin.
Just because some price pattern or event happened in the past doesn't mean that the same price pattern or event is guaranteed to happen in the future.
The only thing that's for sure that the fact that the Bitcoin price will keep moving up and down forever.

You read it right. Bitcoin is in its super cycle, the biggest in history. What we witnessed and will witness are only ups and downs short term. Long term, look back you will see it is very minor fluctuations. Do you see price change about $100 is big nowadays? Years ago, in 2015 or 2016, $100 price change is big and people called it as crash.

If you don't have strong hands, don't invest in Bitcoin because you will re-ask such question again and again. You believe in Bitcoin when price rises impressively but lose your belief when it has temp crash.

Bitcoin might be pulled back to $18k to $28k and it can be the bottom range but don't bet that Bitcoin must be pulled back to that range.

When the price can increase so high, the price can also decrease so deep and already happened. Even bitcoin price now drops too far and many of us do not expect this. We are like adrift in a sea of ​​crypto that there is no certainty when this will all end and give us big profits again. You don't have to believe what other people say, especially on social media, because they can talk anything about the market, let alone say something bad can happen. As long as you are not bothered by it, you will survive and use the moment in the market. So better calm yourself down, enjoy this moment, and think about what you should do right now.

OP, zoom out, not super cycle enough for you? https://bitcoin.zorinaq.com/price/

Those “80% drawdowns” are mere blips from a zoomed out viewpoint. It might be good not to have them, but 80% drawdowns are truly golden opportunities for plebs like us to Buy the DIP!

I have seen this being proposed before and I agree there was a chance this is the case, however the war at Ukraine is going to  distort everything once again, investors are very nervous about what is happening as many countries are probably going to try to give some sanctions to Russia, and while on the surface this may not seem to have anything to do with bitcoin, it does, as now institutional investors are part of the market and as such they are not going to be looking for an asset like bitcoin which maximizes their profits and instead they will be looking for a safe place to park their money until things calm down a little bit.

First, don't believe from Twitter people. Most of them have no knowledge what they are saying. Some just want to ride the discussion and showing that they are also into crypto. And who are these people that are categorizing the supercycle and conventional cycles? But one thing I can say, if you are a true believer of bitcoin, those small dips, you will treat it as golden opportunity to accumulate more.

The level of awareness that the world has with Bitcoin has grown to unprecedented heights. Before, Bitcoin was only known by few people. Now, even countries are adopting it, even declared as a legal tender in one. Various leaders have openly spoken in favor of Bitcoin. The world's billionaires are also showing support for Bitcoin. These are all signs that Bitcoin is getting bigger and bigger. So I think this is one of the reasons why there is indeed a supercycle happening.

Another thing to consider is what is bitcoins ATH before the 80% drawdown.

Back in 2017 we went from $1000 to $20000 so a 85% drawdown to $3500 was not unheard of. However in 2021 we broke $20K and went to almost. $70K so it’s probably not the same scenario.

If we went to something crazy like $150000 then I could see a 80-90% drawdown in the future. Alts are completely different however.

From nothing become something. That is what happens to bitcoin now.
Many people speculate about what will happen to bitcoin and say many things but they do not know the truth.
You do not have to confuse reading all of those things from Twitter or other social media, but you should research more to find the other info because you will find something that others do not know.
Even if they say that this year will be a supercycle for bitcoin, that does not mean they are right as the market can move anywhere.

This is the point. I am surprised that the OP and in the thread most people are talking about supercycle especially regarding the bottom. The supercycle theory from what I remember from what Dan Held was saying gave about $400K-$500 top for this cycle, without a pronounced bear market, but I think it is clear that for this cycle we are not going to get to ATH of those levels, no?

The good point if we don't have spectacular returns but not spectacular drawdowns either is that Bitcoin will be reaching a degree of maturity. With less volatility there will also be more people willing to buy/use it, with more sustained and less volatile long term price increases.

It's definitely interesting.

I would have thought quite frankly that by now there would be a significant drawdown in the BTC markets if history is any indication, but seems like the community aspect of it as strong as ever and BTC prices are holding up quite well above $30k.

I do think that we'll test $20k soon, though. I think that eventually, the bearishness and FUD will ensue, perhaps just later this year.

$20k price drop can only happen if there’s a WW3 but I think many countries realize that they can’t afford to intervene between Russia and Ukraine, this is why the price of Bitcoin recovers. For now, it looks more stable and I think there’s still a chance for a price peak this year, let’s just hope for a better situation and hope that the war wont happen at all.

Can't imagine the world if there will be another ww3 that will happen. The effects of the current war are already devastating, I think this is enough already. not only a 20k drop can happen if there will be a ww3 but maybe the price of btc can plunge down to zero because people will panic and sell. If more lives have been killed, there were hardly be btc users.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has an effect on the btc price where prices now are dumping. It hasn't recovered yet till the wars subsided but don't worry, what you wish for the price to recover can surely happen by this year because we still have a long way to go for the year to get ended.

Fortunately for us the chances of that happening are incredibly low, despite the differences that governments may have among each other they understand very clearly that no one is going to win such a war, this is why despite how much the United States and their allies disagree with what it is happening at Ukraine they are not going to intervene directly in the war, and instead they are going to content themselves with just giving heavy penalties to the economy of Russia.

$20,000 is very possible for me, look what happened last March 2020, when COVID lockdowns started, the market dumped a hugely significant amount.
For me, Ukraine - Russia will not trigger it on what happened in March 2020. But when other countries will start to join with their conflict, it could very possible.
Overall, short-term bearish but midterm - long-term bullish. $20,000 is like an area of candlesticks wicks.

That would be a very good price for us to buy more bitcoins considering that the bitcoin price could grow higher than the last ATH. But hopefully, other countries will not join their conflict but only try to help to resolve the conflict as soon as possible. But seeing the market situation, which has decreased and returned to $37k again, this is a signal for us to be more careful because the decline this time could be deeper. Prepare your money to buy at lower prices again.

It's impossible to happen because adoption of btc nowadays is really getting strong. I mean there's a lot of country legalize bitcoin and use it as a legal tender.
So i don't think it possible to happen in the future.

Perhaps if there's a halving events in the market there will be a drawdowns but surely it's not worst like what you think "Super cycle", wherein a normal cycle only.

Guys, the bitcoin market is not the same as it was in 2017. It won't be the same anymore. The big money came to play and they are those who move the market as they want. There are not so many small holders with more than 100 BTC anymore. The big money will shake the weak hands and will rebuy again.
I don't know if any of the previous indicators will still work in the new era.
I wonder if the halving will have the same effect as it had the previous years.

I do not believe in the supercycles, I believe that bitcoin does whatever bitcoin wants and that's about it. I personally hope that people do not mistake bitcoin with some stock market crash and reset thing because bitcoin is free and decentralized. Just buy and sell, up and down, no cycles no nothing. Sure we have a "cycle" after the halving, but that is something quite predictable and not even a cycle, that is just how people react to psychological periods and that's it.

We do not even have that many miners and getting that many bitcoins, after all we have probably more than hundred times more in trading, so miners do not decide on anything and yet they are still treated like halving matters.

Correct, little by little the volatility of bitcoin is slowly going down, it is still way higher than what we can see with stocks, but at least now it is within reasonable levels, this means that since the growth is smaller then without a doubt the corrections and crashes that we will see in the future are going to be smaller as well, and while some see this as a problem and decide to invest in altcoins in order to try to get same kind of profits that you could get with bitcoin in the past, personally I see it as a good thing as now this going to allow more people to come to bitcoin and they are not going to be as afraid of the volatility as they were in the past.

We know that anything can happen, however the reason I do not think we will see that price has to do with institutional investors, as the average price at which they entered this market is way higher than that, so instead of letting the price drop that low it makes more sense for them to try to protect their investment by buying bitcoin as not only this increases the value of their holdings but will also lower the average price at which they bought.

It is still hard to give the final verdict on this considering the recent market manipulation that heavily disrupted the market and made the conclusion very hard.
But we have a good number of indicators that the cycle trend was successfully broken considering the fact that price didn't rise as much as it should have in the same time frame that is defined as the "cycle" time frame (ie. reaching $440k before entering 2022 or at least be on the way to that target by now).

Now we are in uncharted waters and I'm very curious to see how the market is going to be in the coming years. For example are we going to see small "cycles" or just volatile ups and downs with bigger ups and smaller downs (resulting in overall rise). In any case we are seeing history in the making.

Agree. The trading volume or market cap when Bitcoin was around $10,000 or below is already different right now, a huge difference. I can consider this reason why there are some price levels that is impossible for Bitcoin to dump again. But sometimes, you need also to be realistic or be careful since we all know how Bitcoin volatiles and how huge it can dump especially before if you want to base on history.

I think that without a doubt something is going on, however it is difficult to tell, after all during the last three years we have seen world events that have disrupted our understanding of it in a manner we have not seen in a very long time.

We had the pandemic which changed our lives dramatically and now we have a war going on which has affected the markets tremendously, so it is impossible to obtain clear answer to your question as those two events influenced the markets significantly, however even then a close inspection of the market leads me to believe that the supercycle theory has some ground behind it and we will see if it holds up during the next years.