Is There a Bitcoin Supercycle? Is this the end of 80% drawdowns?

[Silberman]

The price movement of Bitcoin over the last year has been extremely intriguing. We haven't witnessed that significant drawdown yet, which has prompted some to believe that the cycles have shifted and that we are now in what is known as a super cycle (bull markets and mini bear markets). People on Twitter speculated about a supercycle earlier this year, so it's not like it sprang out of nowhere. Personally, I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

I have seen this being proposed before and I agree there was a chance this is the case, however the war at Ukraine is going to  distort everything once again, investors are very nervous about what is happening as many countries are probably going to try to give some sanctions to Russia, and while on the surface this may not seem to have anything to do with bitcoin, it does, as now institutional investors are part of the market and as such they are not going to be looking for an asset like bitcoin which maximizes their profits and instead they will be looking for a safe place to park their money until things calm down a little bit.

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[24Kt]

The price movement of Bitcoin over the last year has been extremely intriguing. We haven't witnessed that significant drawdown yet, which has prompted some to believe that the cycles have shifted and that we are now in what is known as a super cycle (bull markets and mini bear markets). People on Twitter speculated about a supercycle earlier this year, so it's not like it sprang out of nowhere. Personally, I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

OP, zoom out, not super cycle enough for you? https://bitcoin.zorinaq.com/price/

Those “80% drawdowns” are mere blips from a zoomed out viewpoint. It might be good not to have them, but 80% drawdowns are truly golden opportunities for plebs like us to Buy the DIP!

First, don't believe from Twitter people. Most of them have no knowledge what they are saying. Some just want to ride the discussion and showing that they are also into crypto. And who are these people that are categorizing the supercycle and conventional cycles? But one thing I can say, if you are a true believer of bitcoin, those small dips, you will treat it as golden opportunity to accumulate more.

[Fundamentals Of]

The level of awareness that the world has with Bitcoin has grown to unprecedented heights. Before, Bitcoin was only known by few people. Now, even countries are adopting it, even declared as a legal tender in one. Various leaders have openly spoken in favor of Bitcoin. The world's billionaires are also showing support for Bitcoin. These are all signs that Bitcoin is getting bigger and bigger. So I think this is one of the reasons why there is indeed a supercycle happening.

[adaseb]

Another thing to consider is what is bitcoins ATH before the 80% drawdown.

Back in 2017 we went from $1000 to $20000 so a 85% drawdown to $3500 was not unheard of. However in 2021 we broke $20K and went to almost. $70K so it’s probably not the same scenario.

If we went to something crazy like $150000 then I could see a 80-90% drawdown in the future. Alts are completely different however.

[traderethereum]

From nothing become something. That is what happens to bitcoin now.
Many people speculate about what will happen to bitcoin and say many things but they do not know the truth.
You do not have to confuse reading all of those things from Twitter or other social media, but you should research more to find the other info because you will find something that others do not know.
Even if they say that this year will be a supercycle for bitcoin, that does not mean they are right as the market can move anywhere.

[Poker Player]

Back in 2017 we went from $1000 to $20000 so a 85% drawdown to $3500 was not unheard of. However in 2021 we broke $20K and went to almost. $70K so it’s probably not the same scenario.

This is the point. I am surprised that the OP and in the thread most people are talking about supercycle especially regarding the bottom. The supercycle theory from what I remember from what Dan Held was saying gave about $400K-$500 top for this cycle, without a pronounced bear market, but I think it is clear that for this cycle we are not going to get to ATH of those levels, no?

The good point if we don't have spectacular returns but not spectacular drawdowns either is that Bitcoin will be reaching a degree of maturity. With less volatility there will also be more people willing to buy/use it, with more sustained and less volatile long term price increases.

[magneto]

The price movement of Bitcoin over the last year has been extremely intriguing. We haven't witnessed that significant drawdown yet, which has prompted some to believe that the cycles have shifted and that we are now in what is known as a super cycle (bull markets and mini bear markets). People on Twitter speculated about a supercycle earlier this year, so it's not like it sprang out of nowhere. Personally, I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

It's definitely interesting.

I would have thought quite frankly that by now there would be a significant drawdown in the BTC markets if history is any indication, but seems like the community aspect of it as strong as ever and BTC prices are holding up quite well above $30k.

I do think that we'll test $20k soon, though. I think that eventually, the bearishness and FUD will ensue, perhaps just later this year.

[Scripture]

The price movement of Bitcoin over the last year has been extremely intriguing. We haven't witnessed that significant drawdown yet, which has prompted some to believe that the cycles have shifted and that we are now in what is known as a super cycle (bull markets and mini bear markets). People on Twitter speculated about a supercycle earlier this year, so it's not like it sprang out of nowhere. Personally, I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

It's definitely interesting.

I would have thought quite frankly that by now there would be a significant drawdown in the BTC markets if history is any indication, but seems like the community aspect of it as strong as ever and BTC prices are holding up quite well above $30k.

I do think that we'll test $20k soon, though. I think that eventually, the bearishness and FUD will ensue, perhaps just later this year.

$20k price drop can only happen if there’s a WW3 but I think many countries realize that they can’t afford to intervene between Russia and Ukraine, this is why the price of Bitcoin recovers. For now, it looks more stable and I think there’s still a chance for a price peak this year, let’s just hope for a better situation and hope that the war wont happen at all.

[fullhdpixel]

$20k price drop can only happen if there’s a WW3 but I think many countries realize that they can’t afford to intervene between Russia and Ukraine, this is why the price of Bitcoin recovers. For now, it looks more stable and I think there’s still a chance for a price peak this year, let’s just hope for a better situation and hope that the war wont happen at all.

Can't imagine the world if there will be another ww3 that will happen. The effects of the current war are already devastating, I think this is enough already. not only a 20k drop can happen if there will be a ww3 but maybe the price of btc can plunge down to zero because people will panic and sell. If more lives have been killed, there were hardly be btc users.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has an effect on the btc price where prices now are dumping. It hasn't recovered yet till the wars subsided but don't worry, what you wish for the price to recover can surely happen by this year because we still have a long way to go for the year to get ended.

[South Park]

$20k price drop can only happen if there’s a WW3 but I think many countries realize that they can’t afford to intervene between Russia and Ukraine, this is why the price of Bitcoin recovers. For now, it looks more stable and I think there’s still a chance for a price peak this year, let’s just hope for a better situation and hope that the war wont happen at all.

Fortunately for us the chances of that happening are incredibly low, despite the differences that governments may have among each other they understand very clearly that no one is going to win such a war, this is why despite how much the United States and their allies disagree with what it is happening at Ukraine they are not going to intervene directly in the war, and instead they are going to content themselves with just giving heavy penalties to the economy of Russia.

[GreatArkansas]

Fortunately for us the chances of that happening are incredibly low, despite the differences that governments may have among each other they understand very clearly that no one is going to win such a war, this is why despite how much the United States and their allies disagree with what it is happening at Ukraine they are not going to intervene directly in the war, and instead they are going to content themselves with just giving heavy penalties to the economy of Russia.

$20,000 is very possible for me, look what happened last March 2020, when COVID lockdowns started, the market dumped a hugely significant amount.
For me, Ukraine - Russia will not trigger it on what happened in March 2020. But when other countries will start to join with their conflict, it could very possible.
Overall, short-term bearish but midterm - long-term bullish. $20,000 is like an area of candlesticks wicks.

[ethereumhunter]

Fortunately for us the chances of that happening are incredibly low, despite the differences that governments may have among each other they understand very clearly that no one is going to win such a war, this is why despite how much the United States and their allies disagree with what it is happening at Ukraine they are not going to intervene directly in the war, and instead they are going to content themselves with just giving heavy penalties to the economy of Russia.

$20,000 is very possible for me, look what happened last March 2020, when COVID lockdowns started, the market dumped a hugely significant amount.
For me, Ukraine - Russia will not trigger it on what happened in March 2020. But when other countries will start to join with their conflict, it could very possible.
Overall, short-term bearish but midterm - long-term bullish. $20,000 is like an area of candlesticks wicks.

That would be a very good price for us to buy more bitcoins considering that the bitcoin price could grow higher than the last ATH. But hopefully, other countries will not join their conflict but only try to help to resolve the conflict as soon as possible. But seeing the market situation, which has decreased and returned to $37k again, this is a signal for us to be more careful because the decline this time could be deeper. Prepare your money to buy at lower prices again.

[Ararbermas]

It's impossible to happen because adoption of btc nowadays is really getting strong. I mean there's a lot of country legalize bitcoin and use it as a legal tender.
So i don't think it possible to happen in the future.

Perhaps if there's a halving events in the market there will be a drawdowns but surely it's not worst like what you think "Super cycle", wherein a normal cycle only.

[TheBeardedBaby]

Guys, the bitcoin market is not the same as it was in 2017. It won't be the same anymore. The big money came to play and they are those who move the market as they want. There are not so many small holders with more than 100 BTC anymore. The big money will shake the weak hands and will rebuy again.
I don't know if any of the previous indicators will still work in the new era.
I wonder if the halving will have the same effect as it had the previous years.

[el kaka22]

I do not believe in the supercycles, I believe that bitcoin does whatever bitcoin wants and that's about it. I personally hope that people do not mistake bitcoin with some stock market crash and reset thing because bitcoin is free and decentralized. Just buy and sell, up and down, no cycles no nothing. Sure we have a "cycle" after the halving, but that is something quite predictable and not even a cycle, that is just how people react to psychological periods and that's it.

We do not even have that many miners and getting that many bitcoins, after all we have probably more than hundred times more in trading, so miners do not decide on anything and yet they are still treated like halving matters.

[Silberman]

Another thing to consider is what is bitcoins ATH before the 80% drawdown.

Back in 2017 we went from $1000 to $20000 so a 85% drawdown to $3500 was not unheard of. However in 2021 we broke $20K and went to almost. $70K so it’s probably not the same scenario.

If we went to something crazy like $150000 then I could see a 80-90% drawdown in the future. Alts are completely different however.

Correct, little by little the volatility of bitcoin is slowly going down, it is still way higher than what we can see with stocks, but at least now it is within reasonable levels, this means that since the growth is smaller then without a doubt the corrections and crashes that we will see in the future are going to be smaller as well, and while some see this as a problem and decide to invest in altcoins in order to try to get same kind of profits that you could get with bitcoin in the past, personally I see it as a good thing as now this going to allow more people to come to bitcoin and they are not going to be as afraid of the volatility as they were in the past.

[South Park]

Fortunately for us the chances of that happening are incredibly low, despite the differences that governments may have among each other they understand very clearly that no one is going to win such a war, this is why despite how much the United States and their allies disagree with what it is happening at Ukraine they are not going to intervene directly in the war, and instead they are going to content themselves with just giving heavy penalties to the economy of Russia.

$20,000 is very possible for me, look what happened last March 2020, when COVID lockdowns started, the market dumped a hugely significant amount.
For me, Ukraine - Russia will not trigger it on what happened in March 2020. But when other countries will start to join with their conflict, it could very possible.
Overall, short-term bearish but midterm - long-term bullish. $20,000 is like an area of candlesticks wicks.

We know that anything can happen, however the reason I do not think we will see that price has to do with institutional investors, as the average price at which they entered this market is way higher than that, so instead of letting the price drop that low it makes more sense for them to try to protect their investment by buying bitcoin as not only this increases the value of their holdings but will also lower the average price at which they bought.

[pooya87]

It is still hard to give the final verdict on this considering the recent market manipulation that heavily disrupted the market and made the conclusion very hard.
But we have a good number of indicators that the cycle trend was successfully broken considering the fact that price didn't rise as much as it should have in the same time frame that is defined as the "cycle" time frame (ie. reaching $440k before entering 2022 or at least be on the way to that target by now).

Now we are in uncharted waters and I'm very curious to see how the market is going to be in the coming years. For example are we going to see small "cycles" or just volatile ups and downs with bigger ups and smaller downs (resulting in overall rise). In any case we are seeing history in the making.

[GreatArkansas]

(......)

$20,000 is very possible for me, look what happened last March 2020, when COVID lockdowns started, the market dumped a hugely significant amount.
For me, Ukraine - Russia will not trigger it on what happened in March 2020. But when other countries will start to join with their conflict, it could very possible.
Overall, short-term bearish but midterm - long-term bullish. $20,000 is like an area of candlesticks wicks.

We know that anything can happen, however the reason I do not think we will see that price has to do with institutional investors, as the average price at which they entered this market is way higher than that, so instead of letting the price drop that low it makes more sense for them to try to protect their investment by buying bitcoin as not only this increases the value of their holdings but will also lower the average price at which they bought.

Agree. The trading volume or market cap when Bitcoin was around $10,000 or below is already different right now, a huge difference. I can consider this reason why there are some price levels that is impossible for Bitcoin to dump again. But sometimes, you need also to be realistic or be careful since we all know how Bitcoin volatiles and how huge it can dump especially before if you want to base on history.

[wxa7115]

The price movement of Bitcoin over the last year has been extremely intriguing. We haven't witnessed that significant drawdown yet, which has prompted some to believe that the cycles have shifted and that we are now in what is known as a super cycle (bull markets and mini bear markets). People on Twitter speculated about a supercycle earlier this year, so it's not like it sprang out of nowhere. Personally, I believe that the conventional cycles have now been disrupted. But I'm interested in what everyone else thinks.

I think that without a doubt something is going on, however it is difficult to tell, after all during the last three years we have seen world events that have disrupted our understanding of it in a manner we have not seen in a very long time.

We had the pandemic which changed our lives dramatically and now we have a war going on which has affected the markets tremendously, so it is impossible to obtain clear answer to your question as those two events influenced the markets significantly, however even then a close inspection of the market leads me to believe that the supercycle theory has some ground behind it and we will see if it holds up during the next years.